Kuwait’s Endless Elections: The Opposition in Retreat Michael Herb September 30, 2013 SUMMARY s Deep opposition to unilateral changes to Kuwait’s electoral laws motivated opposition boycotts in elections in December 2012 and more recently in July 2013. s Although public support for the traditional opposition is in decline, its absence from politics will not necessarily smooth relations between the Assembly and the ruling family. s For reform in Kuwait to continue, the opposition must convince the Kuwaiti electorate that party government will be good for Kuwait. s The U.S. should continue to work with the ruling family and the opposition to encourage reform, including e!orts to condemn restrictions on freedom of speech and opposing moves to undermine or suspend the 1962 constitution. In the spring of 2012, Kuwait’s government, THE RISE OF OPPOSITION POLITICS led by the al-Sabah ruling family, found itself Kuwait’s 1962 constitution gives the National in increasingly serious conflict with the Assembly more power than the legislative National Assembly. At the time, of the 50 body of any other Gulf monarchy. !e members of parliament, 34 were members of use of this power, and the degree to which the opposition: a loose coalition of Islamists, it is used to check the ruling family, has Bedouin, liberals, and nationalists. !e historically depended on the size, attitude, ruling family felt increasingly besieged by the and composition of the opposition in the opposition’s commitment to expanding the National Assembly. Much more than in other Assembly’s influence over the government Gulf states, elections in Kuwait matter. (by which is usually meant senior members of the ruling family who hold core posts in From 2006 through 2012, the opposition the executive branch). Following National in the National Assembly fought a series of Assembly elections in July 2013, however, battles with the government and won most senior leaders in the ruling family have of them. In 2006, a majority in the National regained the upper hand, after changes to Assembly forced the government to reduce the electoral law prompted an opposition the number of electoral districts. Later, in boycott. !is brief addresses the implications 2009, the National Assembly subjected the of these developments for the future of prime minister to a vote of confidence for political participation in Kuwait, as well as the first time in Kuwait’s history. In 2011, the their effects on bilateral relations between the opposition forced the prime minister to resign United States and Kuwait. following a scandal in which bribes had been POLICY BRIEF POLICY given to members of the Assembly. Almost all PROJECT ON MIDDLE EAST DEMOCRACY KUWAIT’S ENDLESS ELECTIONS: THE OPPOSITION IN RETREAT of those members lost their seats in the February traditionally occupied lower caste positions in 2012 elections, resulting in the election of an the traditional tribal hierarchy. opposition majority of 34 members, the largest in Kuwait’s history. !is change in the electoral system, however, hardly guaranteed a majority favorable to the !is, however, was the high point of the government. !e opposition’s boycott of the opposition’s strength. In June 2012, the December 2012 and July 2013 elections in Constitutional Court ruled that the February protest of the new electoral law, though, did elections were illegal, citing flaws in the generate a more accommodating Assembly. dissolution of the previous Assembly, which Most organized political groups and many was elected in 2009. !e move reinstated the members of Kuwait’s larger tribes joined the previous Assembly until new elections could be boycott. Turnout fell by around a third from the called. Kuwait’s judiciary is largely independent, previous election. !e sharpest fall in turnout and does not always rule in accordance with occurred in the two largest outlying, and mostly the wishes of senior leaders in the ruling tribal, districts. family–though in this case the government welcomed its decision. Soon thereafter, the emir Deep opposition to unilateral changes unilaterally changed the electoral law, claiming to Kuwait’s electoral laws motivated the the authority to do so on the basis of Article 71 opposition boycott: the electoral system has of the 1962 Constitution, which allows him to been a flashpoint between the opposition issue emergency decrees. !is turned out to and the government for decades. While the be a deft move, all the more surprising in that Constitutional Court declared the decree to deftness was a quality lacking in ruling family have been constitutional, the opposition argued responses to the opposition over the preceding that amending the law in the National Assembly years. By explicitly claiming that his decree was would have been more democratic. !e new constitutional, and by declaring that he would system also suffers from known defects of the be bound by the result of any appeal of his SNTV system: in the Kuwaiti context, voters decree to the Constitutional Court, the emir will typically cast a single vote for a member could argue that he was playing by the rules set of their family, clan or tribe. !is encourages down in Kuwait’s popular 1962 constitution. an already very strong tendency in Kuwait towards particularlist politics. A second, third, !ere are 50 seats on the National Assembly, and fourth vote might be cast on the basis of with members of parliament elected from ideology rather than kinship. Some prominent five districts (each with ten seats). Under the opposition politicians probably benefited from previous law, each voter could select four the four-vote system for this reason, though candidates. !e emir’s 2012 decree reduced even in this system ideological lists experienced the number of votes each citizen had from four only modest success. to one, leaving the rest of the electoral system intact and effectively adopting the relatively DECEMBER 2012 ELECTIONS rare single non-transferable vote (SNTV) AND THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY system. !e new rules made it more difficult to run lists of candidates. Since Kuwaiti lists are Many Kuwaitis had high hopes for the National more tribal than ideological, bigger tribes in Assembly elected in December 2012. Previously, the two largest outlying districts were harmed incessant conflict between the ruling family and disproportionately. !e change to the electoral the opposition was seen as the most important law allowed the ruling family to recruit a base obstacle to improving the performance of the of support in the National Assembly from Kuwaiti state in areas such as housing, health among some of the smaller tribes and other care, and education. !e absence of opposition electoral blocs not able to win seats previously. firebrands, it was hoped, would allow the One salutary effect of the new system was government to concentrate on governing, rather the election of several MPs from clans that than dealing with obstreperous opposition voices in the National Assembly. 2 pomed.org KUWAIT’S ENDLESS ELECTIONS: THE OPPOSITION IN RETREAT Indeed, the National Assembly was substantially Assembly (all three won seats). !e Muslim more cooperative than its predecessor, but not Brotherhood joined the boycott, though without by any means a rubber stamp. One minister much enthusiasm. !e shaykh of the Awazim resigned under threat of interpellation (which is tribe reversed course and called on members a first step towards a vote of confidence), and the to participate. Turnout hovered around 52%, government had to seek votes in the National 10% below previous elections that were not Assembly to delay five interpellations. Had the boycotted. However, the timing of the election Assembly lasted longer (the Constitutional also depressed turnout figures, because it was Court invalidated it in mid-June 2013), it likely held during Ramadan in the middle of the Gulf would have demanded votes of confidence in summer. several ministers by the end of the year. Following the July election, senior members Like its predecessors, the Assembly had a of the ruling family had reasons to be satisfied penchant for populist legislation. One of the with the past two elections. !e opposition, more important measures it implemented was seemingly unstoppable in 2011, had lost several the creation of a fund (with state money) to rounds. !e changes to the electoral law made pay interest on Kuwaitis’ consumer loans: the in 2012 diluted the power of some larger tribes, government, however, did manage to negotiate a which had been opposition strongholds in recent reduction in the expense of the law. !e Assembly years (especially the Ajman and Mutair). !ese also managed to pressure the government to changes also resulted in a temporary increase shelve a bill that would have sharply restricted in the number of Shi’a ministers, now a reliably press freedoms in Kuwait. On a positive note, pro-government bloc, in December 2012, but the National Assembly passed several laws on the number of Shi’a MPs fell back to more usual topics ranging from foreign direct investment, levels in July. to housing loans for women, to a reform of laws governing corporations. !e National Assembly !e absence of traditional opposition in this also passed a law on terrorist financing. Previous Assembly does not mean that relations between failures to do so had long been an irritant in the National Assembly and the ruling family will relations with the United States. be smooth. !e July election returned many MPs whose attitude toward the ruling family is likely to JULY’S ELECTION AND A be less cooperative. Given that the next election SECOND OPPOSITION BOYCOTT is likely to see further erosion of the boycott, if not its complete abandonment, some of the new Despite the widespread perception that a boycott MPs may attempt to pick up some of the voters would be unproductive, the opposition again who supported the traditional opposition.