arab uprisings Kuwait’s Moment of Truth November 1, 2012 YASSER AL-ZAYYAT/AFP/GETTY IMAGES AL-ZAYYAT/AFP/GETTY YASSER POMEPS Briefings 15 Contents Kuwait’s balancing act . 5 Kuwait’s short 19th century . 7 Why reform in the Gulf monarchies is a family feud . 10 Kuwait: too much politics, or not enough? . 11 Ahistorical Kuwaiti sectarianism . 13 Kuwait’s impatient youth movement . 16 Jailed for tweeting in Kuwait . 18 Kuwait’s constitution showdown . 19 The identity politics of Kuwait’s election . 22 Political showdown in Kuwait . 25 The Project on Middle East Political Science The Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS) is a collaborative network which aims to increase the impact of political scientists specializing in the study of the Middle East in the public sphere and in the academic community . POMEPS, directed by Marc Lynch, is based at the Institute for Middle East Studies at the George Washington University and is supported by the Carnegie Corporation and the Social Science Research Council . It is a co-sponsor of the Middle East Channel (http://mideast .foreignpolicy .com) . For more information, see http://www .pomeps .org . Online Article Index Kuwait’s balancing act http://mideast .foreignpolicy .com/posts/2012/10/23/kuwait_s_balancing_act Kuwait’s short 19th century http://mideast .foreignpolicy .com/posts/2011/12/15/kuwaits_short_19th_century Why reform in the Gulf monarchies is a family feud http://mideast .foreignpolicy .com/posts/2011/03/04/why_reform_in_the_gulf_monarchies_is_a_family_feud Kuwait: too much politics, or not enough? http://mideast .foreignpolicy .com/posts/2011/01/10/kuwait_too_much_politics_or_not_enough Ahistorical Kuwaiti sectarianism http://mideast .foreignpolicy .com/posts/2011/04/29/ahistorical_kuwaiti_sectarianism Kuwait’s impatient youth movement http://mideast .foreignpolicy .com/posts/2011/06/29/kuwait_s_youth_movement Jailed for tweeting in Kuwait http://mideast .foreignpolicy .com/posts/2011/08/24/in_kuwait_jailed_for_tweeting Kuwait’s constitution showdown http://mideast .foreignpolicy .com/posts/2011/11/17/kuwaits_constitutional_showdown The identity politics of Kuwait’s election http://mideast .foreignpolicy .com/posts/2012/02/08/the_identity_politics_of_kuwait_s_election Political showdown in Kuwait http://mideast .foreignpolicy .com/posts/2012/06/20/political_showdown_in_kuwait 2 Kuwait’s Moment of Truth ast night’s violent clashes in Kuwait have brought its long-brewing political crisis to a dangerous point . It did not have to be this way, in a Gulf state that has long stood out for its robust public sphere, electoral traditionsL and vibrant parliament . But a series of unusually provocative steps by both the royal family and the opposition, in the context of a long-running battle over the powers of parliament and accountability for the royal family, have taken their toll and tempers are running hot . After months of growing popular mobilization and a complex crisis of political institutions, Kuwait’s political future suddenly seems deeply uncertain . Before it gets too late to de-escalate, the Kuwaiti leadership needs to offer meaningful political concessions, including standing down on its deeply controversial plans for a December election, relaxing its attempt to shut down public dissent, and allowing a greater parliamentary role in the selection of cabinet ministers . It seems to have instead decided that now is the time to crack down hard before things get out of hand . Its repressive turn and the galvanizing effect on a mostly moderate opposition offers a troubling echo of Bahrain’s brutal path . one which the Kuwaitis seemed uniquely well-placed to avoid, but now looms large . Kuwait’s long-developing political crisis is discussed in depth in the essays collected in today’s new POMEPS Briefing, “Kuwait’s Moment of Truth ”. Kuwait’s problems have been evident for quite a while, as popular mobilization interacted with repeated efforts to assert parliamentary authority over successive governments appointed by the emir . Those political battles were moving ever closer to the royal family itself, particularly allegations of corruption (which last November drove the prime minister from office) and demands for parliament’s right to interrogate royal government ministers . The long political stalemate at the top coincided with the growing assertiveness of a wired youth movement, the troubling rise of a new kind of sectarianism, and the success of Islamists and tribal figures in the February 2012 elections . Indeed, I included an assault by regime security forces on dissident Kuwaiti academic Obaid al-Wasimi in my January 5, 2011 essay on the crumbling foundations of the Arab order - before the fall of Ben Ali, before the Egyptian uprising, and before most observers sensed the impending regional Arab uprising . Unlike many Gulf states, Kuwait’s current crisis comes within the context of a long-history of public, contentious politics . To its great credit, Kuwait has a long history of parliamentary politics, and its vibrant and creative youth movement has been active for over half a decade . Its experience with contentious and parliamentary politics, along with massive oil wealth and solid U .S . political support, should have left Kuwait better equipped to handle rising political turbulence . But the popular and parliamentary challenges to royal authority seem to have knocked the emirate off-balance . The arrest of opposition figure Musallam al-Barrak for his public warning to the Emir (“We will not allow you, your highness, to take Kuwait into the abyss of autocracy ”). and its ban on public demonstrations does not suggest a confident regime . The popular mobilization in Kuwait should quickly dispel any notions of the Gulf being immune to the underlying drivers of the Arab uprising . The youth movement in Kuwait is every bit as wired, impatient and engaged as in other Arab countries — and has been active since at least 2006 . Online activists and politicians besides Barrack have increasingly openly mocked and challenged the al-Sabah family and even the emir himself . Last November, in an unprecedented challenge to the authority of the royal family, parliamentary opposition and popular mobilization — which included the shocking occupation of the parliament building by protesters — forced the resignation of Prime Minister Nasser Mohammed al-Sabah over allegations 3 of corruption . The massive protest on October 21 was possibly the largest in the history of Kuwait . Opposition leaders are huddling to decide on a strategy after last night’s clashes, but do not seem inclined to back down as a wave of popular anger pushes them forward . They plan a major protest on Sunday, November 4, in defiance of the regime’s ban on public assembly . After years of jockeying with its opponents, the regime has pushed back hard, in ways that look likely to backfire . In June, the emir suspended the troublesome parliament for the first time in Kuwaiti history, and then dissolved it after the Constitutional Court ruled the February 2012 election void . The emir then unilaterally announced changes to the election law that outraged the opposition, which has declared its intention to boycott the elections called for December 1 . The government banned public gatherings of more than 20 people, and warns of even harsher penalties after the violent clashes last night . It is also reportedly planning to prosecute international NGOs for reporting on its human rights violations and political crackdown . Barrack, the opposition figure whose arrest galvanized the recent protest, will reportedly be charged with insulting the emir . While the drivers of the tension in Kuwait have much in common with the other Arab uprisings, particularly the impatient and mobilized youth, it is important to keep local conditions well in mind . Many Kuwaitis support the regime against the opposition, and there is a long history of public politics to fall back upon . Crucially, this is not currently a mobilization for the overthrow of the regime . Most protesters want to see a constitutional monarchy and political reforms, not revolution . But the lessons of other cases — notably Bahrain — suggest that the Kuwaiti regime’s current course of action poses a real risk of radicalizing its opposition and setting in motion unpredictable popular forces . Kuwaitis are proud of their parliament, angry about corruption, and determined to see greater transparency and accountability . Their demands thus far focus on such relatively moderate reforms . But it is unclear whether the regime can make such concessions . Parliamentary selection or approval of the prime minister and cabinet, rather than appointment by the emir, would fundamentally change the enduring logic of family rule in Kuwait . As Nathan Brown noted last December, “the old [political order] is fraying, but it is not quite clear what is replacing it ”. POMEPS Briefing 15 “Kuwait’s Moment of Truth,” explains how we got here and what to expect next . Marc Lynch, Director of POMEPS November 1, 2012 4 Kuwait’s Moment of Truth Kuwait’s balancing act By Kristin Smith Diwan, October 13, 2012 On Sunday, Kuwaitis staged what is thought to be the The emir’s invocation of sedition did not come in a largest protest in the country’s history . Tens of thousands vacuum . Earlier in the week the firebrand opposition responded to the call for a “March of Dignity” in rejection leader Musallem al-Barrak stood before a large crowd of of an emergency decree issued by Emir Sabah al-Ahmed