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Donnelly won’t rule out 2022 run Donnelly said. “I’ve not made any Calls successors’ stance kind of decisions on those types of things.” leading up to Capitol Donnelly said that he is focused on teaching at his alma insurrection ‘a stain’ mater Notre Dame, and practic- By BRIAN A. HOWEY ing law from his Granger, Indi- INDIANAPOLIS – Former ana, home. He raised $18 million senator Joe Donnelly watched in hor- in his race against Braun in an ror the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol election that drew more than on Jan. 6 and said that the “big lie” $110 million, so there will be the perpetrated by his successors’ in the financial calculation in his com- Senate and ing decision. “I spent six years House will be raising $18 million and then there a “stain” on was a candidate who can write a their careers. check for $20 million in an after- But it noon,” Donnelly said. “Those are isn’t enough always things that have to get to compel considered as well.” him to resume the political career that Donnelly believes that went on hiatus in 2018 with his upset Trump should be convicted in loss to U.S. Sen. Mike Braun. Asked his second impeachment trial during a Zoom HPI Interview on Tuesday whether he will scheduled to begin on Feb. 8. “I was asked earlier today, challenge U.S. Sen. Todd Young in 2022, Donnelly took a do you believe the (former) president would be convicted wait and see attitude. “We’ll see what the future holds,” Continued on page 4

Trump vs. Pence By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – The fissure snaking through the Republican Party at this point in time comes down to what appears to be Donald Trump’s chaos wing, and Mike Pence’s constitutional GOP. And in Pence’s hometown of “We are trending in the right Columbus, Ind., the party loyalty appears to be divided. direction. We are on a path where As Donald Trump faces his second impeachment trial begin- we can see our way out. In early ning Feb. 8, this much has come January our positivity rate was to light: Beginning in early Octo-

ber through the Nov. 3 election, 16.5%. Today it came it at 9.1%.” Trump plotted with key aides. - Gov. Eric Holcomb, during Once the “red mirage” of an ear- ly Trump lead had been forecast his weekly COVID presser before much of the mail-in vote on Wednesday. was counted, Trump planned to declare victory Election Night Page 2

until Fox News called Arizona for Joe an “insurrection.” Part of this mob Biden according to “fly-on-the-wall” was chanting “Hang Mike Pence!” reporting from Axios’s Jonathan Swan In the ultimate split screen and Zachary Basu. This would become moment, Pence had arrived in the known as “the big lie.” Senate and his office indicated he Howey Politics Indiana In late December, a TV ad by would play no extra-constitutional ef- the Lincoln Project aimed at Trump forts to thwart the will of the people, WWWHowey Media, LLC suggested that Pence would essential- while the mob descended on the c/o Business Office ly be the one who would terminate his Capitol, where six people, including PO Box 6553 presidency. “The end is coming, Don- a Capitol police officer, would die. Kokomo, IN, 46904 ald. ... On Jan. 6, Mike Pence will put Pence and family were evacuated www.howeypolitics.com the nail in your political coffin,” the from the Senate chamber, minutes ad’s voiceover said in the ad aimed at before the mob arrived, and taken to an audience of one. a secure site, where the vice presi- Brian A. Howey, Publisher Trump’s efforts to, as he dent remained for hours. According Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington put it, “overturn” the election reached to Axios, Trump, sequestered in his Mary Lou Howey, Editor a crescendo on Susan E. Howey, Editor Jan. 6. According to Axios, Trump called Pence late Subscriptions that morning to HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 take one last shot HPI Weekly, $350 at bullying the Lisa Hounchell, Account Manager vice president (765) 452-3936 telephone into objecting to (765) 452-3973 fax the certification [email protected] of Biden’s victory. Unsuccessful in convincing Pence to join this con- private dining room to watch the TV Contact HPI spiracy, President Trump goaded his coverage, placed no calls to check [email protected] supporters at a “Stop the Steal” rally on Pence’s safety, instead tweeting, Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 on the Ellipse that he had promised “Mike Pence didn’t have the courage Washington: 202.256.5822 would be “wild” into a march on the to do what should have been done to Business Office: 765.452.3936 U.S. Capitol. Pence was presiding in protect our Country and our Constitu- the Senate over what had been a tion.” perfunctory congressional counting of U.S. Rep. Tom Rice, R-S.C., © 2021, Howey Politics Electoral College ballots. told ABC News, “I’m convinced these Indiana. All rights reserved. “Mike Pence, I hope you’re people outside, tens of thousands Photocopying, Internet forward- going to stand up for the good of our shouting ‘hang Mike Pence’, if they ing, faxing or reproducing in any Constitution and for the good of our had gotten their hands on Mike country. And if you’re not, I’m go- Pence they would have killed him. form, whole or part, is a violation ing to be very disappointed in you,” I’m convinced of that.” of federal law without permission Trump said, egging his supporters Axios: “After all the bully- from the publisher. on. “I will tell you right now, I’m not ing, the abuse, the Twitter tirades, hearing good stories. I hope Mike is the calls to violence, Pence assessed Jack E. Howey going to do the right thing. I hope so. his options. He’d stood with Trump I hope so, because if Mike Pence does – not complaining, not explaining – editor emeritus the right thing, we win the election. through four years. On the eve of 1926-2019 All Vice President Pence has to do is the transfer of power, Pence’s team send it back to the states to recertify, made clear he’d not be able to attend and we become president.” Trump’s final sendoff at Joint Base By the time they reached Andrews, choosing instead to attend the Capitol, Trump supporters had Biden’s swearing-in. Many believe become a “mob” that would be later Pence intends to run for president described by former President George in 2024. He’s likely to preserve his W. Bush and U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney bridge to Trump beyond Jan. 20, (2000 GOP presidential nominee) as at least long enough to understand Page 3 whether it’s needed.” over a third of Republican voters (36%) think he probably After watching President Biden’s inauguration, or definitely should not. Trump’s approval rating among Pence, wife and daughter flew to Columbus, Ind., where self-identified Republicans dropped to 70% after the Capitol a small, socially distanced, masked crowd met him at the riot, the lowest since he took office in January 2017, ac- airport. Pence said he told his wife, Karen, they would cording to a Jan. 8-12 Reuters Ipsos poll, East reported. move back to Indiana in the summertime. Our bet is that That is an 18% drop since mid-August and a 7% decline they’ll end up in a gated community in Indianapolis or since the day before the riot. About 20% of Republicans Carmel. said they would “strongly” or “somewhat” approve of the On Wednesday, Senate convicting Trump “Morning Joe” host Joe for incitement of insur- Scarborough described rection, according to a Pence as “in hiding back in Jan. 15-17 Politico/Morn- Indiana,” because “there ing Consult poll, up from are people who have Mike 14% the week before. Pence on their hit list be- Research by GOP cause of Donald Trump.” pollster Frank Luntz In a story by revealed 43% of Repub- Columbus Republic re- licans said they will defi- porter Andy East in Pence’s nitely vote against any hometown, the end of the House Republican who Trump/Pence administration has divided Bartholomew supported impeaching Trump. And that is why Republicans Republicans. Allies of Pence say it was an upsetting ordeal like U.S. Rep. Jackie Walorski and U.S. Sen. Mike Braun that put the vice president’s life in danger after years of backed the Jan. 6 challenge to the Electoral College vote. unwavering loyalty to the president. But Pence’s decision Walorski has dominated her 2nd CD over the to defy the president also alienated some Trump support- past three general elections. It would be hard to believe ers. she would be vulnerable to a primary challenge, particu- Republican Chairwoman Barb Hackman said while larly if Trump wanes in popularity. That is likely to occur there are “strong Trump supporters” in Bartholomew if Twitter continues to ban Trump, he becomes engulfed County, “there could be a lot of hurt” among some local in legal and business troubles, the Biden administration Republicans. “All the support and loyalty that Mike showed orchestrates a successful vaccination of the population, and the president and then for him to do that has really upset stories of rampant power abuses by the Trump administra- a lot of local Republicans,” Hackman told the Republic. tion continue to come into the public light. “And there have been some local Republicans that are Having said that, actions by the Arizona, Wyoming, upset that Mike didn’t go along with what Trump was Washington and Oregon Republican parties to censure wanting him to do. So there might be some differences of those not aligned with Trump (i.e. in Arizona this includes opinion, but it will not cause any rift, I don’t believe, going Gov. Doug Ducey, Cindy McCain and Jeff Flake) indicate a forward with the Republican Party.” significant segment of the party is not ready to move on East reported: ”The ‘differences of opinion’ from Trump. Will the GOP be the party that accepts QAnon come as Republican officials across the country confront supporting Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (who advocated on profound questions about what the GOP stands for in the Facebook for the execution of Speaker Pelosi) while expel- wake of the Capitol riot and with Trump out of office. Over ling Rep. Liz Cheney for voting for Trump’s impeachment? the past four years, the GOP’s values were inexorably On Tuesday, Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel vowed tied to the whims of a president who regularly sought to the RNC would stay “neutral” in the 2024 race and de- undermine democratic institutions and traded the party’s scribed QAnon as “dangerous.” long-standing commitment to fiscal discipline, strong for- McDaniel told the AP, “The party has to stay neu- eign policy and the rule of law for a brash and inconsistent tral. I’m not telling anybody to run or not to run in 2024. populism. The party now faces a decision about whether If we’re fighting each other every day and attacking each to keep moving in that direction, as legions of Trump’s other and brandishing party purism, we’re not going to most loyal supporters demand, or chart a new course.” accomplish what we need to to win back the House and In the party’s 2020 virtual national convention, the take back the Senate, and that’s my priority.” As for QAnon, GOP failed to forge a party platform for the first time since McDaniel said, “I think it’s really important after what’s just 1856. It was a key indicator that the national GOP had happened in our country that we have some self reflection been transformed into Donald Trump’s party. on the violence that’s continuing to erupt in our country. I Polling has revealed a GOP chasm. On Wednesday, think QAnon is beyond fringe. I think it’s dangerous.” a Politico-Morning Consult poll revealed more than half of For now, the national Republican Party appears to Republican voters (56%) believe that Trump should either be headed for this divide: Trump Chaos v. Pence Constitu- probably or definitely run for president again in 2024. Just tionalists. v Page 4 life. For many years as vice president, he had to almost Donnelly, from page 1 become a carbon copy of Donald Trump; he had to fol- on charges that he was responsible for the violent attack low whatever President Trump said. On Jan. 6, the vice against the United States Capitol where a police officer president, Mike Pence – and I called him Mike Pence just was killed and five individuals died?” Donnelly said. “That then because I’ve known Mike for so many years – the sums up just how close we came. The president is under- vice president did the right thing. I watched that whole going these charges because he incited an attack upon our thing in horror because they were in the Senate chamber, Capitol.” and knowing every in and out of the place and knowing He added that former president Trump played exactly where the vice president’s office was off the floor a huge role in his loss to Braun, even though Donnelly of the Senate, to see these people stampeding around the visited all 92 Indiana counties for six years while serv- Senate, and knowing the vice president was literally 15 to ing in the Senate. He said that part of Trump’s attraction 20 feet away, just across the hallway … it was something I to Hoosier voters is that he and Fox News told them that was very concerned about; it was very heartbreaking. But no one was listening to them. ”Every night on Fox News, here’s the thing, I always know that America is so good grievances were being put forward and folks who worked and so strong, just like we are in Indiana. These people very hard were being told are just domestic terrorists. For every one of them, there ‘Nobody’s listening to you,’ are 10,000 really, really awesome Donnelly said. “I would go Americans who would do anything to all 92 counties and listen they could for their country. All you to every single one of you have to do is go across the river, and my microphone wasn’t and Arlington Cemetery is right as big as theirs.” there, to show you who the real Young is expected heroes of America are. to seek a second term in HPI: You experienced the 2022. No Democrat has de- Trump phenomenon during your clared for the seat. Donnelly reelection bid in 2018. I’ve written would be the most formi- that we experienced the kind of dable challenger, though reaction to Barack Obama in 2008, running in a first mid-term Robert F. Kennedy in 1968, and under President Biden perhaps D.C. Stephenson in the would put him at a potential 1920s. What are your thoughts af- disadvantage, as history has ter watching Trump pack fieldhouse shown that parties which after fieldhouse in the summer and control the White House don’t fare well in such elections. fall of 2018? Here is the HPI Interview with Donnelly: Donnelly: Indiana voted for Donald Trump by HPI: Put the last four years of the Donald Trump 19 points in 2016 and by 18 points in 2020. In 2018, you era in perspective, and, in particular, since the election last do data analysis when you’re running. In analyzing the November. data, if you look at Democratic candidates in previous Donnelly: I was asked earlier today, ‘Do you be- mid-terms and look at what Republican candidates and lieve the (former) president should be convicted on charg- officeholders got, I always figured it would be significantly es that he was responsible for the violent attack against higher because of the Donald Trump phenomenon. The the United States Capitol where a police officer was killed data analysis done before the race showed if I ever had and five individuals died?’ That sums up just how close we a million votes, it would have been far more than any came. The president is undergoing these charges because Democrat had ever got in memorable history in a mid- he incited an attack upon our Capitol, that when it be- term. I’m a student of history and looked and 850,000 gan, and this was said by people in the White House, he was the high water mark. Typically it would be somewhere watched almost gleefully; when he was asked to send in 700,000 or 750,000 and the Republican would be about 1 the National Guard that did not happen. His staff within million. Data analytics said if I hit 1 million, I would win by the White House pleaded with him to get on TV … “tell 5% or 6%. We always knew it would be tough because of them to leave; tell them to get out now.” He did not do it. Donald Trump; we were basically running against Donald And a vice president from our own state, who has been so Trump. We just worked and worked and worked to get to loyal to President Trump, was in danger and he still didn’t that number. People said, “You’ll never get that high.” We say anything. ended up with 1,000,250, and it was 100,000-plus short. HPI: How do you think Vice President Pence Every time Donald Trump came out – five or six times in handled Jan. 6 and the events leading up to that? the last month and a half, three times in the last nine days Donnelly: My reaction was that the Mike Pence – Peter Hanscom, who was the best campaign manager on Jan. 6 was the Mike Pence I knew for a long time in my you could ever have, and I looked at each other and Page 5 said, “Please take that plane somewhere else.” You could Donnelly: (Laughs). I’ll tell you some other day. measurably see in the next few days another point or two But it was $25 million in what they gave to Mitch McCon- drop. They knew that as well. nell, in what was earmarked for the Indiana Senate race. HPI: At the Evansville and Southport rallies, I don’t think they could have found Indiana on a map if it Trump not only packed the fieldhouse, there were thou- was circled and pointed out to them. sands standing outside. I don’t think I’ve seen a political HPI: OK. Give us a critique of Sen. Young, Sen. figure have such a sway on people. What do you think it Braun and, perhaps Rep. Walorski and how they’ve is? Did he just learn the lingo that appealed to voters? handled the post-election period in 2020 and this year. Donnelly: He spoke to folks who felt, in part, Donnelly: I don’t want to get too much into that nobody was listening to them. As you know, I went individuals. Our obligation is to tell the truth to the people to all 92 counties every single year, in every corner of we represent. When it’s easy it’s much more fun than the state, to make sure they were being listened to. But when it’s hard. I thought the ACA was the right thing to Donald Trump told them time after time after time they do back in 2010. I told everybody in my district I thought weren’t being listened to. Every night on Fox News, griev- this was the opportunity for more health care. You were ances were being put forward and folks who worked very hard were being told “Nobody’s listening to you.” I went to all 92 counties and sat and listened to ev- ery single one of you and my microphone wasn’t as big as theirs. HPI: So we have Sen. Todd Young up for reelection in 2022. Are you consider- ing a challenge to him? Donnelly: I’ve been teaching national security at Notre Dame and I’ve been practicing law. It’s been really nice. Being part of public service was the great- est honor I could have had, certainly in Congress and in the Senate. So that was a great privilege. So we’ll see what the future holds. I’ve not made any kind of decisions on those types of things. HPI: What kind of time frame … Donnelly: And the second semes- ter starts in a week. HPI: We’ve seen U.S. Senate races double every two years in spending. I can remember Evan Bayh and Dan Coats running in the 1990s and having to raise $3 million to $5 there in Kokomo (for a 2010 town hall) and you knew million. The last Senate race was more than $100 million. it was a challenge. But I told them the truth of what I Donnelly: It was $110 million. wanted to do and what made sense for the country. I HPI: So there’s the financial component of this. think over the years it’s been borne out. But if you look at When do you have to make a decision? what happened with the election of President Biden, Sen. Donnelly: I’m focused on teaching and practicing Braun knew that Joe Biden was elected president and that law right now. I haven’t really given any deep thought to the election was fair. Jackie Walorski knew that Joe Biden that. At the start of my last race, people said, “You have was elected president and the election was fair. Obviously to raise at least $10 million. We don’t know how you’ll do their base did not want to hear that. But that’s not what it but you’ll have to raise $10 million.” I ended up raising they’re hired to do. They have an obligation to tell the $18 million and it was just a drop in the bucket. Individual truth. Part of being a senator or congressman is telling the wealth of candidates is something, too. Because I spent hard truths. For them to participate in trying to overthrow six years raising $18 million and then there was a candi- of the election of Joe Biden, there’s no other way to put date who could write a check for $20 million in an after- it. It was an effort to overthrow the election of Joe Biden. noon. Those are always things that have to get considered It’s important to remember, Brian, folks like Rudy Giuliani as well. would say stuff on television, but every time they went HPI: When we met at Notre Dame last year you into court they never claimed fraud, once. Not one time. mentioned a single donor contributed more than $20 mil- There were hand recounts; there were machine recounts; lion against you. Can you say who that was? there were all kinds of recounts. There was never any indi- Page 6 cation there was any foul play involved in that. These folks knowing this, continued on doing this and I actually think it’s a stain on their name. HPI: The Indiana Democratic Party is not very competitive right now. What do you believe Indiana Democrats need to do to regain that com- petitive edge? And are you backing any candidate for chair? Donnelly: What we need to do is to contin- ue to fight in all 92 counties. If you go back and look at the 2018 election, we didn’t end up winning. And I do want to say that in 2016, Donald Trump won with the same exact Electoral College vote count. He and for our rural communities, to get solid broadband to actually received less popular votes than Hillary Clinton. every corner; to work to make sure that prosperity goes When the time came, as the U.S. senator from our state I to every town. That’s who we are as Democrats; we fight showed up and I certified the election of Donald Trump as for every family. We don’t fight for that tax cut bill of 2017 president, because that was my job, just as Todd Young that took $2 trillion out of our treasury and just handed it did this past year. As Democrats, we need to compete in to the wealthy. all 92 counties. Obviously we can’t win in all 92 counties, HPI: Are you backing anyone for chair of the but we have to win every last vote that we can. Our mes- party? sage is about jobs, it’s about opportunity, it’s about the Donnelly: I don’t think anyone has even an- chance for people to get health care, a decent education, nounced yet, so I’ll wait and see who we have. v

and managed the Schmuhl, Whitcomb meteoric presidential campaign of Pete Buttigieg last year. in INDem chair race Last November, By BRIAN A. HOWEY Schmuhl released INDIANAPOLIS – Mike Schmuhl and this statement to Trish Whitcomb are in the race for Indiana HPI: “Since I moved Democratic Party chair, while Karlee Macer is back home to Indi- out. ana in 2009 to work These developments come as the for Joe Donnelly, party seeks to become relevant again after be- electing Hoosier ing shut out of power Democrats has been at the local, state at the heart of my and federal levels. career, and it culmi- The party hasn’t won nated in the his- a statewide race since 2012, and toric 2020 Pete for America campaign. While I won’t be a holds just 12% of county offices, candidate for chair of the state Democratic Party next year, less than 40% of city halls, only I will do everything I can to help our Indiana party to gain two of 11 federal offices, none at the Indiana Statehouse, strength and secure victories in the years ahead.” and has been in super minority status in the General As- Last week, informed and reliable Democratic sembly since 2014. sources began telling HPI that Schmuhl was reconsidering. Whitcomb told Howey Politics Indiana on Whitcomb said she had reached out to Schmuhl, Wednesday, “Our party needs leadership and dedication then sent a text to Donnelly, “and miraculously I heard to our values, which my years of service exemplify,” said back from Mike Schmuhl,” who she said is “in the race.” Whitcomb. “As state party chair, I will work closely with On Wednesday morning, the only previously county, district, and caucus leaders; I will listen to those declared candidate, former Indianapolis legislator Karlee who work tirelessly on the front lines; and I will ensure Macer, announced on Facebook she was exiting the race. state party support of their work.” “Over the past few months I’ve had great conversations Whitcomb entered the race as Schmuhl decided to with Democrats across the state about the future of the get back in after declaring he wasn’t interested in late last party,” Macer said. “We know that the road ahead will year. Schmuhl is a former campaign aide to Joe Donnelly require hard work, energy and a passion for rebuilding our Page 7 infrastructure. Unfortunately a family medical emergency has taken precedence, and I will no longer be seeking the An open letter to a position of party chair.” Macer followed John Gregg, former speaker and gubernatorial nominee, who made calls in December Democrat activist before bowing out on New Year’s Eve, saying in a tweet: By DAVE GALVIN “Today I am announcing that I will not be a candidate. INDIANAPOLIS – A letter to a Democratic activist: While I am a proud Hoosier Democrat, for me this work I appreciate your letter regarding the current status of has always been more about people, policy and progress the Indiana Democratic Party and your determination and than partisan politics.” openness to changing the way the party engages voters. Another not running is former St. Joseph County It’s also notable that you wish to restructure the party in Chairman Jason Critchlow, who tweeted Wednesday, “I ways that are, as you put it, “less would like to make it clear that I will not be running for Indianapolis and more Indiana.” @INDems Chair. I appreciate the encouragement from I couldn’t agree more. around the state and to have my name discussed as a I understand your zeal good fit for this position. But, I do not believe it to be the for our party and longing to get right thing for me or my family.” into the fight; we are not alone in Whitcomb said that Hoosier Democrats have been our desire to see pro-science and hurt by negative messaging from the national party: “The pro-working family leaders govern- focus of national Democrats has damaged local and legis- ing our communities and state. lative party candidates. I want to start by building up from However, to begin the process of the ground.” She added that actions at the local level are building the political infrastructure important. “If the Save the River group is going to have and the army of activists required a day picking up trash, let’s have local Democrats go with to win local and statewide elections them and listen to them.” (See Obama’s 2008 and Stacey Abrams’ 2020 playbooks) Whitcomb insists she has the “skills” when it will require patience, honesty, and a little Sun-tzu (stop comes to messaging and fundraising. After working on the rolling your eyes). 1980 campaign of U.S. Sen. Birch Bayh, Whitcomb moved As we have discussed ad nauseum, the state of to California where she picked up direct contact skills for the Indiana Democratic Party is, at best, in disarray. While targeting voters. She has played key roles in a number of it is a complete waste of our time to point fingers at its victorious Democrat campaigns, including those of State past and current leadership, I believe you should consider Rep. Win Moses in 1983, U.S. Rep. Jim Jontz in 1986, Gov. taking the donkey by the ears and reorganizing the party Evan Bayh in 1988, U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thompson in 1989 with the following thoughts in mind. and Supt. Glenda Ritz in 2012. She said when she was Patience is a virtue. president of the Indiana Federation of Democratic Women, Like me, you’re short on patience. While you “We supported Melanie Wright for state representative in and I have adhered to wearing masks, as per the guid- 2014 and she won.” ance of doctors and scientists, the leadership-fearing GOP “I’ve been doing this since we’ve sent data with has played silly patriot games while 20% of our state’s modems,” said Whitcomb, who is the daughter of the late restaurants have closed for good and thousands of our Republican Gov. Edgar Whitcomb. She would be only the fellow Hoosiers have died. I, too, am anxious to see many second female Democratic chair if elected. Ann DeLaney of them vacate our beautiful Statehouse but we need to held the post under Gov. Bayh. gather resources and cultivate strong and capable candi- Democrat National Committeeman Shaw Fried- dates to run, and win, in strategic locations and offices. man told HPI on Wednesday that Schmuhl was widely This will take some time to accomplish. encouraged to take another look at the chair. “There was You must be patient with those who want to strong encouragement from many of us asking him to thrust the party left, for they want to see every Ameri- reconsider, which he did,” Friedman told HPI. “His poten- can enjoy the right to good health care, and they seek to tially serving as our state chair is a game-changer for us. demilitarize local police departments – we agree with them His organizing skills are second to none (i.e. setting up a – however, you and I know that these messages aren’t statewide precinct organization that won the Iowa cau- convincing independent voters to vote for Democrats. cuses for Pete) and his ability to tap the right expertise for You’ll have to be patient with our friends who are anti- messaging and fundraising is exceptional.” choice. This group of Democrats is judged harshly by our The decision for Democrats will come on March friends on the left, and they are leaving our ranks because 20, following county party reorganizations on March 4-6, they no longer feel welcome in our party. congressional districts by March 13. With 27 votes on the Honest leadership. Indiana Democratic Central Committee, Whitcomb added, We need leadership that is honest and pragmatic “I need 14 votes.” v at the helm of our party. I know you’re busy so I’ll get Page 8 right to it. When someone from a bright red Republi- can district tells you that they’re thinking about running Biden strives for for – fill in the unwinnable office – kindly advise them to reevaluate their decision. There is nothing wrong with telling people the truth even if it’s not popular; this is a a difficult unity characteristic of being a good leader. By JACK COLWELL I strongly recommend that you take to heart SOUTH BEND – “There is truth and there are lies,” this aspect of being a good leader, as uncomfortable as President Joe Biden said in calling for national unity. “Lies it will make you feel, because there’s one hard truth all told for power and for profit.” Democrats need to come to terms with; the political infra- Unity is possible, even as different governmental structure that made it possible for Evan Bayh and Frank approaches are debated, as they O’Bannon to win and hold statewide offices is long gone. should be. It will be very difficult, Simply put, there are not enough resources available to however, to bring much unity, support every Democrat who wants to run for office. You much civility, if there is an inability must focus on the races you can win, period. of so many, too many, to differ- While you are being honest and unraveling the entiate between truth and lies, political dreams of many well-intentioned Democrats, you between facts and whacko con- should be visiting union halls, churches, building a volun- spiracy theories. teer network, and scanning voting data for weak points in Former Vice President the ranks of Republican mayors and city council members. Mike Pence was at the inaugura- I recommend taking a deep dive into the voting habits of tion. The Republican and Demo- high fidelity Democrats in cities recently taken over by the cratic leaders of Congress were party of the twice impeached, one-termer… Oh, you know there. Three presidential predeces- who I mean. sors, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, were Focus on winning more mayoral campaigns; com- there. That was good. munities and future statewide candidates will thank you. Donald Trump wasn’t there. That also was good. Now, about Sun-tzu… Trump has made himself a symbol of disunity and persist- In Indiana, thanks to some crafty draftsman- ed, despite the truth, with claims that he didn’t really lose. ship with the boundaries of state House and state Senate He promoted the conspiracy theories on which false claims seats, it is nearly impossible to defeat 90% of incumbent were based. He wouldn’t have fit in with the other former Republican legislators. This being the case, I advise you presidents. He no doubt would have shown disdain for the to crack open the “Art of War” and, while enjoying your transfer of power that the others were there to celebrate. favorite beverage, contemplate the Sixth Century Chinese An example of how tough it will be to bring a general’s advice detailed in the sections titled “Vacuity and sense of national unity and end what Biden called an “un- Substance, Configurations of Terrain, and Nine Terrains.” civil war” can be found here in Michiana. Fred Upton, the You, my friend, 18-term Republican congressman from Michigan’s 6th Dis- need to think like a trict, had the courage to act in a way to be called a coward general leading a small and a liar. army against a supe- Upton voted to accept certification of presiden- rior force; you need tial election results, including the 154,000-vote victory by to harass your op- Biden in Michigan, where, as Upton said, “The voters have ponents, expose their spoken.” flanks, poison their After Trump incited a mob for the deadly storm- wells (their sources of ing of the Capitol to prevent transfer of power, Upton broke money not their actual drinking water), and, like a stra- with the majority of House Republicans to vote to impeach tegically-minded predator, single out the lamed and weak Trump. He became the first House member in congressio- and defeat them. nal history ever to vote for two impeachments, of Clinton One last point before I close. You need to develop and now Trump. a message that speaks to our friends in Richmond and The Trump vote brought a fierce response on Clinton. You must listen to them and know their hearts, Upton’s official Facebook page: “COWARD!!” “!!TRAITOR!!” for I believe that many of them are being bamboozled by “You should be recalled and lose your pension and convict- political lemmings that are following a cult off the edge of ed ot (of) treason.” He also was denounced for perceived reason. v lies about need to wear a mask. Oh, there were of course positive exclamations Galvin is founder and CEO of Colfax Communica- such as: “Thank you, Fred, for supporting the constitution, tions LLC. truth and responsible leadership!!!” But it’s the angry insults and threats of those who Page 9 actually believe that Biden didn’t win fair and square and results of every recount. They believe the lies, lies told for decisively – as all the recounts and the courts say – that power and for profit. roar loudest on social media, as loud as mobs at the Capi- Can they be convinced of the truth? Biden argued tol shouting to “Hang Mike Pence.” that many of them can be reached, convinced, in his ef- Why do those who railed against Upton for fail- forts to bring America together. He acknowledged that this ing to “Stop the Steal” actually believe that Trump didn’t also is labeled as “a foolish fantasy.” Yes, some Democrats lose? Well, most certainly aren’t fervent believers in the do think it’s foolish of him to seek unity, promising to fight QAnon dogma about Democrats being pedophiles who eat for those who didn’t vote for him as well as for those who children. But they believe in some of the vote conspiracy did. Fight political fire with fire, they advise. theories spread by QAnon and other sources of disinforma- Biden avoided that tactic. He never mentioned tion. Trump by name. He spoke in more lofty terms of honoring It’s about where they turn for information. They the Constitution and accepting a duty and responsibility rely on social media and the type of TV and radio that “to defend the truth and to defeat the lies.” v tells repeatedly of conspiracy theories about election fraud and reporting only Trump’s contentions that the election Colwell has covered Indiana politics over five de- was rigged, never reporting the decisions of 60 courts and cades for the South Bend Tribune.·

ate. For those folks, unity might be out of the question. Still, the news for Biden is not all bad. That same Biden will need survey found that 58% of Americans approved of the job he had done in laying out his vision for the country. bipartisan support When it comes to making that vision a reality, 74% of By KELLY HAWES respondents said the new president should do his best CNHI News Bureau to compromise with Republicans in Congress even if it ANDERSON – Millions of Americans woke up meant disappointing some of his supporters. At the same Thursday morning joyous at the realization that Donald J. time, 66% of respondents said congressional Republicans Trump was no longer president. Oth- ought to do their best to find common ground with Biden ers had a different view. even at the risk of upsetting their base. One video making the The picture looks a little different, though, when rounds on social media featured a you break down those answers by party. Nine out of 10 woman who appeared to be hys- Republicans and more than six out 10 Democrats say terical over the inauguration of Joe Biden should seek common ground, but the parties are Biden. She apparently believed those far more divided when it comes to congressional Republi- who had insisted Trump would find cans. Republicans support their representatives standing a way to stay in office. “President firm by a margin of 59% to 38%, while Democrats say Trump, if you see this, please save they should compromise by a margin of 89% to 9%. us, …” she cried. “Please, President It’s not surprising, I guess, that supporters of Trump. Please, I hope you have a both parties are more likely to favor the other side giving plan. God, please, save us. Save us from the devil, please!” ground in a negotiation. Still, it’s worth noting that nine Biden has issued a call for unity and pledged to be out of 10 Republicans support the Democrats backing a president for all Americans, but some, like that woman away from a position while fewer than four in 10 support in the video, are not quite ready to embrace him. Perhaps their own side doing that. Democrats, too, strongly favor they never will. Though a Gallup survey found his approval the other side giving ground, but most also support the rating at an all-time low in his final days in office, Trump idea of their side taking part in the give and take. still enjoys significant support within his own party. Ac- The reality, of course, is that neither party will cording to a Morning Consult poll in the waning days of get everything it wants. With an evenly divided Senate his presidency, almost 80% of Republican voters at least and a requirement that most measures gain bipartisan somewhat approved of his performance. Half strongly ap- support, neither party will be able to force its will on proved while only 11% strongly disapproved. the other. Nevertheless, that Pew survey tells us that In a survey taken just after some of his support- Americans are fed up with gridlock. They want their new ers stormed the Capitol and just ahead of a House vote to president to get things done. impeach him for an unprecedented second time, the Pew Of course, they won’t be surprised if he doesn’t. Research Center found that 64% of Republican voters still The survey found 46% of respondents saying he’d make believed the former president’s claim that he won the elec- things better, 28% saying he’d make things worse and tion. That works out to about 34% of the overall elector- 24% saying he wouldn’t have much of an effect one way or the other. Let’s hope he beats expectations.v Page 10 Our path forward By LEE HAMILTON BLOOMINGTON – With the handoff of power from one president to another, we enter this new phase of our national life in deep distress. We are divided and polarized, struggling to communicate reasonably with one another, and seemingly unable to find common ground on basic issues. Yet the path forward is nei- ther new nor, really, difficult. We all know what needs to hap- pen. We just need to do it. To heal as a who expect their elected representatives – and the media nation, we need to return to our they consume – to level with them, tell them uncomfortable traditional ways of doing business. truths, explain the facts, repudiate conspiracy theories, and We need to rediscover our skills at put forward workable policies for a complex, ever-changing negotiation and compromise. We country. must rekindle our understanding that many people con- We face tough problems. And while Americans tribute to our progress as a nation and that no one has an do not expect miracles, they do expect their leaders to work exclusive on wisdom. And perhaps more than anything, we together to solve them. That is how we move forward. The need to reassure ourselves that we have the confidence Jan. 6 insurrection was a very dark moment in our history. and ability to solve our problems. We have done it in the We have a long way to go to move past it, but we have past. We can do it again. a chance to revitalize our democracy by showing that it I count myself among those who believe that can work to improve the lives of all Americans, regardless President Trump’s misconduct should not be ignored, that of their beliefs. We have done it in the past. We can do it healthy democracies hold public officials accountable for again. v their actions and do not just sweep them under the rug in the name of moving on. Representative democracies can- Lee Hamilton is a Senior Advisor for the Indiana Uni- not function if political leaders try to overturn the results versity Center on Representative Government; a Dis- of a free and fair election when they do not like the result. tinguished Scholar at the IU Hamilton Lugar School At the same time, though, we badly need to focus of Global and International Studies; and a Professor on the tasks of governing. And by “we,” I mean all of us. of Practice at the IU O’Neill School of Public and Most of us will not have much impact on the future of So- Environmental Affairs. He was a member of the U.S. cial Security or finding ways to provide affordable health House of Representatives for 34 years. care to every American, but we do bear responsibility for making our own little corner of the country work. We can look around our neighborhood, our community, our region, or our state, and do our best to make our system live up to its promise. For starters, this means that we resolve our differences without resorting to violence or trying to overthrow the system. Our representative democracy has its faults, but over the long sweep of our history it has served us well, evolving as public understanding evolves. In our system, we work to reform it, not to jettison it altogether. Binding up our wounds will take recognizing that we can work together to resolve our differences. We will be helped on this score by electing principled, practical, and pragmatic leaders. I have had the privilege in my time in politics of watching hundreds (if not thousands) Page 11 Ways & means OKs COVID grant programs Black caucus pleased The Indiana House Ways and Means Committee has advanced legislation that would create a small busi- ness grant program and a learning loss grant program for agenda is moving educators (Erdody, IBJ). The committee on Wednesday Howey Politics Indiana unanimously voted to approve House Bill 1004, which INDIANAPOLIS — The Indiana Black Legislative would allocate $30 million to help small businesses strug- Caucus says it’s pleased with progress so far this session gling from the pandemic, and House Bill 1008, which on its justice reform agenda (Smith, Indiana Public Media). would allocate $150 million to help students struggling The major police reform bill of 2021 is well on its way. from learning loss caused by the pandemic. The grant Supported by law enforcement, program outlined in House Bill 1004 would provide grants public defenders and key organi- of $10,000 per month with a maximum award amount zations in Black communities, the of $50,000. The funding could reimburse businesses for measure requires de-escalation up to 80% of non-payroll expenses and 100% of payroll training for all police officers. expenses incurred between March 1, 2020, and April 1, It treats chokeholds as deadly 2021. To be eligible, a business must have fewer than 100 force. And it allows the state employees, gross revenue of less than $10 million in 2019 training board to “decertify” officers who commit miscon- and be able to prove a monthly gross revenue loss of at duct. Other parts of the Black Caucus’s agenda gaining least 30%. traction: A bill to create a law enforcement misconduct database and an extension of the state’s current traf- Indiana Vote By Mail pushing reforms fic amnesty program, allowing drivers to more easily get With the advent of the 2021 legislative session, their licenses back. Black Caucus Chair Robin Shackleford Indiana Vote By Mail applauds efforts by legislators to (D-Indianapolis) said conversations with Republican lead- make elections more accessible to all voters, while keeping ers have been productive. And she’s pleased to see Gov. our elections safe. A range of bills advocate for full vote by Eric Holcomb’s administration working behind the scenes mail as an option for voters, eliminate straight-ticket on the issue, though she wishes he were more out front, voting, expand the use of vote centers, streamline the too. “To help put a face on the issue and let people know process of registering to vote through BMV offices, allow that the leader of the state is behind most of this agenda 16-and 17-year old students to serve as election workers, and wanting to help out, I think that would greatly help,” expand early voting locations, remove the absentee ballot Shackleford said. excuses, require tracking of ballot mail using bar codes, and many more initiatives. The organization said, “These $70M added to police reforms bills help to move the cause forward to realize increased Indiana lawmakers have added $70 million to a voter engagement rates in Indiana, historically in the bot- law enforcement reform measure to pay for upgrades at tom 10 states for turnout, including for the 2020 General the Indiana Law Enforcement Academy in Plainfield. The Election. The Indiana General Assembly can and should Indiana House Ways and Means Committee on Wednesday help to create a climate of citizen participation in our de- amended House Bill 1006 to add the funding to the legisla- mocracy.” tion before unanimously voting to send it to the full House for consideration (Erdody, IBJ). The bill, which has support Microchipping law may be updated from police and minority groups, would largely ban the use A year after becoming one of the first states in the of chokeholds, penalize officers for intentionally turning off nation to enact a law prohibiting businesses from requiring body and vehicle cameras, and make it easier for the Indi- their workers be microchipped as a condition of employ- ana Law Enforcement Training Board to decertify bad-act- ment, Indiana legislators already want to update the ing officers. Decertifying a police officer means he or she statute to similarly protect Hoosiers from the government can no longer serve in law enforcement in the state. The (Carden, NWI Times). There are no governmental entities bill would expand the conditions for decertification, making in Indiana currently seeking to implant rice-size microchips it possible when an officer is convicted of just one misde- in their employees, and only one Wisconsin company is meanor (current law requires it to be two or more or for it doing it on a voluntary basis for both security and conve- to be a felony conviction) and adds language that would nience, such as being able to wave your arm in front of allow for decertification if the officer has simply “engaged a sensor to make a vending machine purchase. But state in conduct that would be a criminal offense” even if he Rep. Alan Morrison, R-Brazil, said omitting the government or she has not been convicted of a crime. The legislation, from the list of employers barred from forcibly implanting authored by Republican Rep. Greg Steuerwald of Avon, a microchip in their employees’ bodies was a mistake on would allow the decertification process to continue even if his part last year. “I had a couple conversations with some the officer has resigned or retired from his or her position. folks over the summer, and I really kind of thought about Page 12 it and figured we should probably include government em- based on age rather than moving up teachers and other ployment as well,” Morrison said. State Rep. Cindy Ziemke, essential workers as other states have done. The new R-Batesville, did not disagree with Morrison’s proposal in rules will allow gatherings at up to 25% capacity at ven- House Bill 1156. But she said during Wednesday’s meeting ues in counties with the two highest risk levels of corona- of the House Committee on Employment, Labor and Pen- virus spread on the state’s four-level rating system, Gov. sions that “it seems a little conspiracy to me at this point.” Eric Holcomb said. The revised rules starting Monday un- der Holcomb’s new executive order will replace the current Bill aims at failed septic costs 25-person crowd limit for the highest-risk counties that It may get easier for underserved communities has been in place since mid-November. Holcomb said resi- with failing septic tanks to get water and sewer systems. dents and businesses must still follow precautions includ- A state House bill addressing that issue passed out of ing mask wearing and distancing to stem the virus spread. committee by a unanimous vote on Tuesday. But the bill “We can manage our way through this,” Holcomb said. doesn’t cover everyone who needs help (Thiele, Indiana “We know what works, but it is a constant balance of our Public Media). According to the Indiana Department of lives and our livelihoods.” All 92 Indiana counties remain Health, every year more than 20,000 septic systems need in the highest restriction categories according to the state to be repaired or replaced. Failing septic systems can Department of Health’s coronavirus risk tracking map. But leak wastewater into local streams and lakes. It can also that number could drop in coming weeks as Wednesday’s get into drinking water wells and make people sick. “We updated map labels five of Indiana’s 92 counties in the regularly receive requests for main extensions. We’ll do most dangerous red category, down from 34 counties last the numbers. Unfortunately it’s too expensive for those week and 73 two weeks ago. A county can move to a individuals to be able to afford to pay those in developed lower-risk rating after two weeks of improving per capita areas where the costs are often high,” said Justin Schnei- numbers of new infections and percentage of tests con- der, director of consumer affairs for Indiana American firming those infections. The health department has added Water. This bill would allow a utility to waive that cost for 316 coronavirus deaths in the past week to the state’s underserved communities and raise rates on its existing pandemic toll, which has reached nearly 9,850 fatalities customers instead. The utility would have to show that including confirmed and presumed COVID-19 cases. The adding these new customers would bring rates back down state’s seven-day rolling average of COVID-19 deaths has in the long run. declined to less than 50 per day after peaking at 86 a day in mid-December. Lake magistrate bill moves State lawmakers appear to agree Lake County National Guard to leave nursing homes requires a new judicial magistrate. Two measures estab- Indiana National Guard members tasked with lishing a new magistrate in Lake Superior Court 4 each helping nursing homes respond to the coronavirus pan- won unanimous approval Wednesday by separate com- demic will return to their normal lives over the next mittees in the Indiana House and Senate (Carden, NWI several weeks (Hopkins, IndyStar). More than 1,500 Times). Last summer, Lake Superior Judge Aleksandra National Guard soldiers were deployed to Indiana nursing Dimitrijevic told state lawmakers a magistrate is needed to facilities in November to help an “exhausted” staff care for help her tackle a court workload that grew 40% from 2016 residents. Guard members are scheduled to leave nurs- to 2019, according to data compiled by Lake County Court ing homes about seven days after the date of the second Administrator Martin Goldman. She then picked up an round of COVID-19 vaccinations at the facilities, though extra 8,300 cases after Hammond and Whiting shuttered some will leave a few days before or after that date. their city courts and transferred those cases to her county courtroom that’s also located in Hammond. “We are the Kroger, Meijer, Walmart vaccines only court, of the four courts in Lake County in the county Kroger, Walmart and Meijer will begin administer- division, that for the entire 20 years of our existence has ing the COVID-19 vaccine across Indiana with the guid- never had a magistrate. The other three courtrooms all ance of the Indiana State Department of Health, officials have that position. We do not,” Dimitrijevic said. announced Wednesday (CBS4). The stores’ pharmacies will follow the eligibility guidelines set by the Indiana State Holcomb says ‘we’re not out of woods’ Department of Health, which currently offers vaccinations Indiana’s crowd size limits will be relaxed starting to any Hoosier age 70 and older, long-term care residents, next week following recent improvements in the statewide first responders who have in-person contact with the COVID-19 infection and hospitalization rates, the governor public and healthcare workers who have in-person contact announced Wednesday (Davies, AP). State health officials, with patients or infectious material in any healthcare set- however, are not expanding COVID-19 vaccine availability ting. Kroger and Meijer are using their own online systems to those younger than 70 because of limited dose availabil- to sign up for the vaccine. Walmart is using the state ity, and will continue with a plan to expand shot eligibility system through ourshot.in.gov or by calling 2-1-1. v Page 13

– and cash. The state can get into the moneymaking act, The most meaningful too. The bill expands the roles of the existing Benjamin Harrison Conservation Trust and Clean Water Indiana fund to include carbon credit banks. proactive environmental Who wants to buy carbon credits? Big corporations feeling green pressure from stockholders. Take FedEx, for legislation in years example. To voluntarily lower its carbon footprint at its Indiana facilities, FedEx wants to pay Indiana farmers to By ANNE LAKER pull carbon out of the air. All they need is a mechanism to INDIANAPOLIS – On Feb. 1, the Senate Natural invest in local carbon-farming projects. Enter SB 373. Resources Committee will hear SB 373, arguably the most Advocates from all corners are lining up to meaningful, proactive environmental policy to emerge adore the bill. Vincennes-area farmer Ray McCormick, who from the Indiana General As- already practices the symbiotic, common sense methods of sembly in years. Yes, you read regenerative agriculture, spoke in favor of the carbon credit that right. program at a committee hearing last fall. Tim Maloney of the So did Rae Schnapp of the Indiana Forest Alliance, Hoosier Environmental Council who testified how the bill would “help private woodland described the magic bill this owners and farmers who own 85% of the state’s forests way: “It’s based on the idea that conserve and expand their forests and restore soil health Indiana businesses – who are while giving the state a means for acquiring more greatly interested in reducing their car- needed public forest land at the same time.” bon footprint and in the market Even the Ruffed Grouse Society weighed in, noting to buy carbon offsets – should that carbon farming is “well aligned with the practices nec- be able to buy these offsets in essary to also sustain overall healthy forests and habitat Indiana, offsets that are gener- upon which many wildlife species and Hoosier sportsmen ated by Indiana farmers and and sportswomen depend.” woodland owners, and by state-run forest conservation Conveniently, SB 373 dovetails with U.S. Sen. projects. If enacted, the bill will leverage new private Mike Braun’s Growing Climate Solutions Act, proposed last investment for land, water and wildlife conservation in spring. That act would authorize the U.S. secretary of ag- Indiana and reward farmers and woodland owners for riculture to provide technical assistance and a verification stewardship practices that sequester carbon.” process to farmers, ranchers, and private forest landown- That’s right, folks. Indiana’s ready to jumpstart ers ready to play the carbon credit market. a carbon market, incentivize sustainable agriculture and Daniel Poynter, founder of Carbon Neutral In- forestry, and implicitly acknowledge the climate crisis! diana, said it best about SB 373: “Everybody wins. Compa- Predictably, and in true Hoosier fashion, the bill contains nies reduce their carbon footprint, new money flows into no mandates, only a set of dangling financial carrots. Also Indiana, farmers get paid, our soil gets richer.” And Indiana in true Hoosier fashion, it’s low-risk, and not a new idea. gets more forested. Poynter also noted research showing No matter. SB 373 is an elegant triple win: For that 20% of Hoosier households are willing to pay $40 a state government coffers, for the pocketbooks of forest month to “clean up their carbon trash.” If even just 5% of and farm owners, and for Indiana’s corner of Planet Earth. the 20% participated, that represents $12 million worth “What’s most exciting is to see the strong bipartisan demand for carbon-sucking projects. support for it led by Sen. Sue Glick (R-LaGrange), which All told, SB 373 is the political permission Indiana’s means it actually has a good chance of being enacted,” industrial farmers need to act on climate. And it offers one said Jeff Stant of the Indiana Forest Alliance. answer to the eternal question, when will conservatives The bill’s origin story is interesting. Before his conserve nature? When they stand to profit from conserva- retirement last spring, Sen. Mark Stoops (D-Bloomington) tion. v proposed a study of carbon sequestration opportuni- ties and carbon markets in Indiana. A working group of A consultant and grant writer, Laker is principal of environmental and economic partners formed. As Stoops Laker Verbal LLC. She is the former director of com- transitioned out, the group worked with Sen. Glick to craft munications at Indiana Forest Alliance and hosts a SB 373, a bill that’s as green as a May hike in the Hoosier movie review show, Flick Fix, on WQRT 99.1 FM. National Forest. Greening Hoosier farming and forestry means planting trees, avoiding lots of logging, controlling fertil- izer runoff, restoring wetlands (ironic in light of SB 389), or committing to other sanctioned practices that reduce carbon emissions. These actions generate carbon credits Page 14

2016, Portman was one of the strongest overperformers in the nation – he won by a 21% margin as Donald Trump Initial 2022 Senate carried Ohio by 8%. The problem for Democrats? In last year’s presi- ratings unveiled dential contest, Ohio barely budged. Though there was By J. MILES COLEMAN some internal movement from 2016’s result – the suburbs Sabato’s Crystal Ball generally shifted more Democratic while working class and CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. — A few weeks after the rural areas continued to redden – Trump held the state 2020 election, the Crystal Ball put out an early look at the by a 53%-45% vote. In an era where senatorial results 2022 Senate races. Since then, President Biden has been are increasingly tied to a state’s presidential preference, sworn in, and with dual wins in Georgia, Democrats went Trump’s margins bode well for GOP prospects in Ohio, on to claim a 50-50 majority in the chamber, via Vice Presi- particularly with a Democrat in the White House (the presi- dent Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote. As the 2022 election dent’s party often loses ground down-ballot in midterm cycle begins in earnest, we’re elections). There is no shortage of putting out our initial Senate potential Republicans who could run ratings. to replace Portman. Aside from Sen. The last time 2022’s Sherrod Brown’s (D-OH) Senate seat, Senate map, known more the GOP holds all of Ohio’s partisan formally as the Class III map, was up in a midterm year, statewide offices, and has enjoyed a 12 to 4 advantage in voters were rendering judgement on another Democratic the state’s House delegation since 2012. president who had just taken over after replacing a Repub- For years, state Democrats have been waiting for lican. In 2010, Democrats, during President Obama’s first Youngstown-area Rep. Tim Ryan (D, OH-13) to take the midterm, were on the defensive, as they had a hefty 59- plunge and run statewide. This cycle, he may be forced seat majority in the chamber. While Republicans ended up into it, and he announced that he was considering running netting six seats that year, and reducing Obama’s majority on Wednesday. With the state set to lose a House seat, in the chamber to 53-47, Democrats were overexposed: Ryan could soon find himself without a constituency. For Three of their losses were in Arkansas, Indiana, and North 2012, Republican mappers drew Ryan into a safe seat – Dakota – by today’s standards, it may seem baffling that but his district has since become much more marginal, and they held those seats in the first place. it could easily take in more GOP-leaning areas or be dis- For 2022, the playing field should be much nar- solved entirely. With Portman out, we rate Ohio as Likely rower. Republicans will hold 20 of the 34 states up to Republican. Democrats’ 14 – both sides have a few offensive oppor- tunities, but a six-seat gain for either side, like we saw in Democrats look to PA, WI, NC 2010 with this class, seems unlikely. The sole Toss-up Senate race to start the 2022 Democrats have not had a truly good year with cycle is Pennsylvania. A reformist conservative with an the Class III map since 1986, when they netted eight interest in fiscal issues, two-term Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) seats, to take the majority, during Ronald Reagan’s second has long advocated for term limits. In the House, he stuck midterm. With the cham- to his pledge to serve only ber tied at 50-50, both three terms (he went on sides have little room for to lose a Senate primary in error. 2004), and he’s called for a With that, here two-term limit for senators -- are our initial ratings: in October, he was again true We’ll start by to form and announced he’d getting the biggest news retire. of the week out of the Almost im- way: With the retirement mediately after Toomey’s of Sen. Rob Portman (R- retirement news, Democrats OH), we see the Buckeye began mentioning Lt. Gov. State’s Senate race as John Fetterman (D-PA). A more competitive, but towering figure who looks Republicans still start off uncomfortable in a suit (to as clear favorites. Had the extent one would ever Portman run again, we see him wearing one), he would probably rate his ran for Toomey’s Senate seat race as Safe Republican. in 2016, but lost the primary. When he was last up, in With a base in the Pittsburgh Page 15 area -- he was mayor of Braddock, a borough just east daughter-in-law, Lara, is originally from the coastal city of the Steel City – he had better luck in 2018. Fetterman, of Wilmington and is reportedly weighing a senatorial along with four other Democrats, took on the then-embat- campaign. As an aside, Trump’s daughter, Ivanka, has tled lieutenant governor, Mike Stack, in the primary. Stack also been mentioned as a senatorial candidate, in Florida finished a poor fourth place, but geography was decisive. – she’d be running in a primary against Sen. Marco Rubio Fetterman likely won’t have the Democratic field (R-FL), though we don’t expect it to be one of the cycle’s to himself, and he may lack the geographic advantage he marquee races. had in 2018. Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D, PA-6), from the On Tuesday, Jeff Jackson, a media-savvy state Philadelphia suburbs, is considering a Senate run; if she senator from south Charlotte, entered the Democratic were the only candidate from that populous metro, she’d primary. Jackson has been a fixture in state Democratic seem well-positioned. Meanwhile, on either of the state’s politics for several years, but his biography as a white geographic extremes, Reps. Matt Cartwright (D, PA-8) and male veteran with legislative experience may trigger com- Conor Lamb (D, PA-17) could get tougher districts for 2022 parisons, fairly or not, to the party’s most recent senatorial – something that could push them to run statewide. nominee, Cal Cunningham. During the 2020 campaign, the On the GOP side, Houlahan’s predecessor, former Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) was Rep. Ryan Costello (R, PA-6) is looking like a senatorial criticized for the optics it created by heavy-handedly back- candidate. Though any number of other Republicans could ing Cunningham over his main primary opponent, then- run, Costello’s biggest obstacle is that the Philadelphia state Sen. Erica Smith, a Black woman. Smith is running area is making up a declining portion of the state Repub- again. lican electorate. According to historical voter registration data, in 2000, about one-third of registered Republicans in GOP Sunbelt prowess Pennsylvania lived in the Philadelphia metro area Republicans will be defending more Senate seats Wisconsin is the only other Biden state that than Democrats in 2022, but they still have several pickup Republicans are defending this cycle. Originally elected opportunities. Though the Crystal Ball doesn’t currently in 2010 with support from the Tea Party movement, Sen. see any races as sure-fire flips, the four states that we Ron Johnson (R-WI) defeated then-Sen. Russ Feingold rate as Leans Democratic seem like the GOP’s most realis- (D-WI), a progressive icon in the state. Johnson then, tic targets. rather impressively, survived a 2016 rematch. In the heat Fresh off of overseeing the DSCC’s successful of that rematch, he told voters he was running for his final effort to win back the chamber’s majority, Sen. Catherine term. Then, in early 2019, Johnson began backtracking Cortez Masto (D-NV) is running for a second term. In on his pledge and now seems outright non-committal. If recent cycles, Democrats have generally won Nevada by he retires, Republicans from the state’s House delegation slight, but consistent margins. or legislature will likely look at the race -- though Johnson Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA), who’s just now himself first won by running as a businessman with no unboxing materials as he moves into his new office, will prior elected experience, a template others could follow. be up again next year. During the first phase of his 2020 Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who is Black and has a campaign, Warnock had to navigate an all-party jungle base in Milwaukee, is seen as a top Democratic prospect primary (Georgia uses that method for special elections). and Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson is running. This time, the race will feature the usual partisan pri- As with Rep. Ryan in Ohio, if longtime Rep. Ron Kind (D, maries. Former Rep. Doug Collins (R, GA-9), who ran in WI-3) is dealt an unfavorable hand in redistricting, he the special Senate primary but was squeezed out of the could finally launch a statewide run. Kind had the closest runoff, may run again. race of his career in 2020, and his western district could Another Democratic winner of a 2020 special elec- easily absorb redder turf. Until the playing field here is tion who must now run in back-to-back cycles is Sen. Mark more certain, we’re giving the incumbent the benefit of the Kelly (D-AZ). As the husband of former Rep. Gabrielle doubt in Wisconsin, and keeping it at Leans Republican. Giffords (D, AZ-8) and with a background as an astronaut, Though it’s an open seat, North Carolina joins Wis- he was arguably Democrats’ best Senatorial recruit of consin in our Leans Republican category. In presidential the 2020 cycle. Kelly defeated then-Sen. Martha McSally and senatorial contests, the results in this light red state (R-AZ) to finish out the term of the late John McCain, who have often been close, but it’s wound up on the GOP side was last reelected in 2016. since 2010. Arizona Republicans also censured their sitting Former Rep. Mark Walker (R, NC-6), who was governor, Doug Ducey (R-AZ), for some measures that he squeezed out of Congress due to a court-ordered redis- put into place to contain the COVID pandemic. At this time tricting last cycle, was the first major Republican in the last year, the term-limited Ducey was seen as a leading race. A pastor who rose to chair the large Republican potential Senate candidate. In 2018, as Democrats made Study Committee during his time in Congress, Walker gains across the board in Arizona, he was reelected by a seems like a candidate who could be broadly accept- comfortable 56%-42%. v able to all factions of his party. Former President Trump’s Page 16

to state and local governments, the direst potential out- comes may have been averted. How this recession The most remarkable aspect of the COVID reces- sion is the unequal and hidden impacts on labor markets. is unfolding Too much of the policy discussion has failed to acknowl- By MICHAEL HICKS edge how deeply unequal this recession has been. I think MUNCIE – We approach a full year since the start the problem lies in over reliance on anecdotal evidence to of the COVID recession. So, it is timely to assess where judge the world around us. This appears to have allowed the recession has turned out dif- too many policymakers to ignore deep problems in the of- ferently than seemed likely at the ficial estimates of unemployment in assessing the state of start. Some of the developments the economy. are happy, while others are not. The current unemployment rate understates I begin by noting that the real level of job losses. A full explanation is too lengthy employment in Indiana fell through- for this column, but suffice it to say that job losses have out 2019. For much of the Midwest, displaced maybe three times the number reported in the 2019 was effectively a recession official unemployment rate. As of mid-November, more year, even if that downturn was than 600,000 Hoosier workers had hours cut so low that masked by the cataclysm of COVID. they were eligible for benefits. The low information con- However, the forces that slowed tent of the traditional unemployment data means that the our economy in 2019 were entirely seriousness of the labor market disruptions were too easily different from the COVID effects of ignored. But, I think the real problem is that the workers 2020, and these forces befell a different set of people and facing the deepest distress are largely invisible. The truth businesses. about their plight is startling. Most economic forecasts in March and April pro- Nationwide, from January to late October, employ- jected the deep GDP losses in second quarter and rapid ment in the top third of workers – those who earn more recovery in third quarter. I think these forecasts were than $60,000 per year – grew by 1.2%. This is slower right enough about the depth and dynamics of the COVID than normal, but hardly a recession. Among middle- downturn to have been helpful for policymakers and busi- income workers, those who earn $27,000 to $60,000, nesses. It appears now that we’ll end 2020 with a down- employment declined by 4%. That is roughly the national turn that ranks in the top five to seven worst years since experience annually of the Great Recession, in other the 1920s. words, pretty bad. But, among low-wage workers, job At the beginning of the COVID downturn, most losses were at 19%. This is matched only by one year of economists argued that the effects of the disease were the Great Depression, and it took four years to reach that the causal factors in the recession. With more research we share of joblessness. might find that long-term government restrictions slowed So, for the most affluent American workers, 2020 recovery, accounting for a small fraction of lost jobs and was a slow growth year. For middle-income workers, it businesses. But, the emergence of extensive data on was the worst year in a lifetime. For the poorest third of the timing of disease, government actions and business American workers, 2020 was a catastrophe akin to the revenue, it is now clear that individual responses to COVID darkest days of the Great Depression. The inequality of caused the downturn. Government ‘shutdowns’ played this downturn is the most shocking effect of this kind I no more than a minor role in the depth or duration of the have ever seen in data. This pattern plays out nearly iden- recession. It was always the pandemic. tically across individual states. The economic projections of a deep downturn Many of these jobs won’t return. Even if house- were accompanied by several estimates of a sustained fis- hold spending returns to pre-COVID patterns, the accel- cal catastrophe affecting state and local governments. For eration of automation and productivity changes in services many states and local governments, that is turning out to has been large and permanent. The only silver lining for be the case. Local government has lost a whopping 1 mil- workers is that these jobs are geographically distributed lion jobs nationally and schools another million. But, two across every community. This means we won’t have the factors have worked together to mitigate the worst likely concentrated job losses of the 2000s. effects. Another aspect of the COVID downturn is its The CARES Act combined to actually boost person- risk of exacerbating already worrisome levels of inequality. al income in second quarter. Most of this boost in spending Most particularly, the impacts to education appear to be appears to have be dedicated to taxable sales, and it was more than a transient inconvenience. Between 5 and 7% all subject to income taxes. At the same time, household of incoming students elected to skip college. Most of these spending shifted more heavily to taxable items, like home young adults will not continue their education, making the improvement products, than most economists expected. individual and regional impacts of this profoundly damag- While the COVID losses are likely the worst post-war shock ing. Page 17 Within schools, the effects of COVID are likewise kids seeing a 13.7% drop. These effects on students will unequal. Broadband access is highly uneven, and as many continue to affect individual and economic performance for as one-third of kids have real problems with remote learn- a half century. ing. And, yes, that is an argument for keeping schools Doubtless there are many unknown challenges open. But many schools, like the one my son attends, had awaiting Congress and state governments consider how to shift to online learning because they could not staff the to deal with the remainder of this downturn. One emerg- school due to COVID quarantine and isolation. ing certainty is that dealing with the unequal effects of The effects of this are already obvious in the labor market and educational experiences need to be a top data. There are a few sources for student learning in priority. v online math classes last year. By the end of the year, when final tests were given, students from families in the top Michael J. Hicks, PhD, is the director of the Cen- one-third of income made steady progress, with growth of ter for Business and Economic Research and the 37%. Middle-income students had almost no measurable George and Frances Ball distinguished professor of change, while low-income students saw their progress economics in the Miller College of Business at Ball down 11%. This worsened over the fall, with low-income State University.

hardship passed to succeeding generations. However, modern monetary theory (MMT) holds The arts and MMT governments can print money to prevent economic col- By MORTON J. MARCUS lapse without fear of inflation or kicking the can down the INDIANAPOLIS – “This legacy is at risk” wrote road to our kids. That idea is well expressed in a currently Campbell MacDonald, principal clarinetist of the Fort popular book, “The Deficit Myth,” by Stephanie Kelton. For Wayne Philharmonic and chair of the Philharmonic Players’ some readers, MMT is a new economic gospel. Others de- Association, last week in the Journal Gazette. That legacy nounce MMT as heresy and a recipe for economic disaster. of the 77-year-old orchestra is Simply put, MMT contends governments can now endangered by COVID and run a deficit (increasing the debt) without stimulating infla- the resulting dispute between tion when there are idle resources. MMT requires un- or management and its 65 musi- under-utilized resources. In the labor force, it means either cians. unemployment or unwillingness of people to work for pay. We all know many restau- With more money in circulation, wages can be raised to rants have closed. In some cases attract people into the market economy. Simultaneously, it is like losing a valued friend. underutilized buildings, land, and machinery could produce How do those closings compare more, and new investment will increase productive capac- with the loss of a symphony or- ity. chestra? However, there are concerns. If these under- Many community leaders utilized people are retired workers, students, caregivers, are now realizing Indiana’s chief or artists/hobbyists with adequate economic support, why economic problem is a scarcity of cultural assets; Indiana’s should they be “at work?” Will more money in the mar- 26 orchestras are among our vital community assets. They ket economy draw labor from the unmeasured economy might be impossible to rebuild once gone. Assembling (either legal or illegal)? even a decent orchestra, let alone one of established char- Today we do have many under-employed people acter, is a virtuoso task. and workplaces that are running well under capacity. The Indiana Arts Commission (IAC) reported These are exactly the conditions MMT could resolve with receiving $473,900 from the $75 million Congress allocat- targeted government stimulus. Money, however, should be ed in 2020 to the National Endowment for the Arts (NEA). distributed not only to persons in need, but also to those IAC then spent $504,000 from the Indiana Arts Emer- institutions, like the FW Philharmonic, that sustain commu- gency Relief Fund. How much did the FW Philharmonic nity strengths. Our legacies are at risk. v get? I don’t know, but, as with many enterprises, it wasn’t enough to survive. Hence the conflict between manage- Mr. Marcus is an economist. Reach him at morton- ment and labor. [email protected]. Follow his views and those of Some people don’t focus on symphonies or restau- John Guy on “Who Gets What?” wherever podcasts rants. They fixate on the federal debt, without understand- are available or at mortonjohn.libsyn.com. ing the difference between personal or household debt and federal or sovereign debt. They see rapid expansion of the money supply as the cause of inevitable inflation and Page 18 Craig Unger, SpyTalk.com: From “American have not have an immediate payoff, but could offer far Kompromat: How the KGB Cultivated Donald Trump, and more value years in the future. “That’s a big difference Related Tales of Sex, Greed, Power, and Treachery,” by between the KGB and some Western HUMINT [human in- Craig Unger, to be published by Dutton, an imprint of the telligence] agencies,” Shvets told me in an extended series Penguin Publishing Group © 2021 by Craig Unger. of interviews. “The KGB is very patient. It can work a case There are boundaries in America’s political dis- for years. Americans want results yesterday or a maximum course—or at least there were until Donald Trump’s presi- today; as a result, they have none. They don’t get that dency. There were still taboos: One simply didn’t say that if you round up nine pregnant women, the baby would the president of the United States is a Russian asset. And not be born within a month. Each process must ripen.” In yet according to Bob Woodward’s Rage, no less than for- Trump’s case, it appears that the results took roughly 40 mer Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, a Republi- years to ripen. “Then,” Shvets added, “it paid off much, can, had “deep suspicions” that Putin “had something” on much more than anyone could possibly have imagined.” v Trump, seeing “no other explanation for his Behavior.” And Coats wasn’t the first highly placed intelligence officer to Gary Truitt, Hoosier Ag Today: The new kids are make such assertions. In a New York Times op-ed pub- in town (Washington, DC), and they are armed with a lished three months before Trump’s 2016 election, former lot of priorities and policies that they are eager to adopt. CIA director Michael Morell wrote, “In the intelligence They are also eager to do away with some of the poli- business, we would say that Mr. Putin had recruited Mr. cies that the last gaggle put in place when they came to Trump as an unwitting agent of the Russian Federation.” In town. This is the way the American political process works. January 2017, just before Donald Trump’s inau- Meanwhile, farmers farm the land; try to produce guration, Michael Hayden, former head of both the food, fiber, and fuel we need; and adjust to the CIA and the National Security Agency, called changes which can have a big impact on their Trump “a clear and present danger” to America profitability. Last time around, it was trade that and “a useful idiot,” a term often attributed to had the front seat. This time it is the environment Vladimir Lenin that refers to naïve Westerners and climate change. President Biden, Ag Secre- who could be manipulated for propaganda and tary Vilsack, and Senate Ag Chairperson Debbie other purposes. Stabenow, all have stated that environmental issues are at In December 2017, the former director of national the top of their list. This is an area that will have an impact intelligence James Clapper asserted that Trump was, in on agriculture and may drastically change the way farmers effect, an intelligence “asset” serving Russian president farm. It is also an area where agriculture has a great story Vladimir Putin. And in 2019, former CIA director John to tell and can offer some real solutions to our environ- Brennan declared that Trump “is wholly in the pocket of mental issues. The challenge, however, is that extremists Putin,” and went further on “Meet the Press,” adding that on the environmental and organic sides are not farmer- he had called Trump’s behavior “treasonous, which is to friendly and have agendas that are at odds with modern betray one’s trust and aid and abet the enemy, and I stand agriculture. Thus, agriculture must present a strong mes- very much by that claim.” sage as the climate debate begins. The good news is farm- Yet somehow, these extraordinary allegations — ers have a great story to tell. The environmental record that the president of the United States is an operative for of agriculture is far better than that of the manufacturing, a hostile foreign power — have not become part of the na- oil, steel, and high tech industries. Yes, there have been tional conversation. It’s as if the entire country is in denial, disasters, bad actors and misguided policies in agricul- even now, after Russian cyber warriors were discovered ture; but, when it comes to addressing greenhouse gases, amplifying claims by Trump and his allies that the election carbon sequestration, water conservation, and soil erosion, was being “stolen” from them. So let me try to answer the farmers have made more progress and more personal question: Is Donald Trump a Russian asset? I believe the investment than the CEOs of big food brands who like to answer is yes, and that what happened between Trump call for more sustainable food production methods. For the and the Russian state is best understood as a series of se- most part, these improvements have been made without quential, and sometimes unrelated, operations that played heavy-handed, regulatory controls. An area to pay special into each other over more than four decades. “When peo- attention to and to guard against is a return to the Waters ple start talking about Trump’s ties to the KGB or Russian of the U.S. rules and other state or federal regulations that intelligence, some are looking for this super sophisticated mandate certain practices or land use. A point often lost master plan which was designed decades ago and finally in this argument is that farmers and landowners are more climaxed with Trump’s election as president of the United than willing to be outstanding environmentalists with some States,” said Yuri Shvets, a former KGB officer who quit incentive. I attended a roundtable discussion with lead- before the fall of the Soviet Union, moved to the United ing farmers and then Ag Secretary Perdue who asked the States in1994 and now lives outside Washington, DC. But producers which was a more effective approach — a carrot that’s not how it happened. According to Shvets, standard or a stick. The farmers unanimously said the carrot would Soviet practice was to develop assets and data that might be more effective. v Page 19

subsidies for those industries. The races up and down the ballot,” said Buttigieg advances directives aim to conserve 30 percent Camp. of the country’s lands and waters in to full Senate the next 10 years, double the nation’s No action on offshore wind energy, and move to an WASHINGTON — A Senate all-electric federal vehicle fleet, among councilman’s post panel on Wednesday easily advanced other changes. Biden’s sweeping plan President Joe Biden’s nomination of is aimed at staving off the worst of MUNCIE — The Delaware Pete Buttigieg to be transportation global warming caused by burning County Council took no action against secretary, setting up a final confirma- fossil fuels. But his effort it also car- one of its own members Tuesday tion vote for a key role in Biden’s push ries political risk for the president and afternoon over commentary he made to rebuild the nation’s infrastructure Democrats as oil- and coal-producing on social media that prompted public and confront climate change (AP). The states face job losses from moves to outrage (Ohlenkamp, Muncie Star Commerce Committee approved the sharply increase U.S. reliance on clean Press). Infuriated members of the nomination of Buttigieg, a 39-year-old energy such as wind and solar power. public had called for newly-elected Re- former mayor of South Bend, Indi- “We can’t wait any longer″ to address publican Delaware County Councilman ana, on a 21-3 vote. His nomination the climate crisis, Biden said Wednes- Ryan Webb to step down following a now heads to the full Senate, where day at the White House. ”We see post he made on his personal Face- a vote could happen as early as this with our own eyes. We know it in our book page in early January regarding week. He would be the bones. It is time to act.″ Biden the pro-Trump rioters who breached first openly gay person, has set a goal of eliminating the U.S. Capitol. The councilman, in and one of the youngest, pollution from fossil fuel in the a post that had garnered more than confirmed by the Sen- power sector by 2035 and from 230 comments before being hidden, ate to a Cabinet post. the U.S. economy overall by stated in part: “In 1776 those revolt- Biden has been urg- 2050, speeding what is already ing against the government were also ing the Senate, where a market-driven growth of solar and called traitors, terrorists, and trouble Democrats hold a bare majority, to wind energy and lessening the coun- makers. In 2021 we now call those move quickly on his Cabinet picks try’s dependence on oil and gas. same men our forefathers.” His multi- given the current crisis of COVID-19, paragraph post further questioned which prompted him in part to sign an Camp, Curry seek whether the mob that stormed the executive order mandating masks on Capitol would be considered patriots airplanes and in public transportation Allen Dem chairs or domestic terrorists. Webb did not to help stem the spread of the deadly condemn the violence in his initial virus. The president has also pledged FORT WAYNE – Former post. an ambitious agenda of jobs growth, Indiana Young Democrats President fighting climate change and promot- Derek Camp and Allen County Council- DHS bulletin warns ing racial equity. Sen. Maria Cantwell, woman Sheila Curry Campbell today the panel’s incoming Democratic chair, announced their candidacy for the of violence praised Buttigieg’s credentials before Allen County Democratic Party Chair WASHINGTON — Warning the vote Wednesday and urged quick and Vice Chair, respectively during the that the deadly rampage of the Capitol confirmation so he can get to work party’s quadrennial reorganization in this month may not be an isolated on COVID-19 safety in transportation. March 2021. The pair are running on episode, the Department of Homeland “He understands what all of us have a platform that will expand the party’s Security on Wednesday said pub- to deal with on transportation and organizing efforts, create a robust get licly for the first time that the United infrastructure,” Cantwell said. out the vote program, increase its fun- States faced a growing threat from draising capabilities, develop a candi- “violent domestic extremists” embold- Biden unveils date mentorship program, and estab- ened by the attack (New York Times). climate strategy lish a focused message from the local The department’s terrorism alert did party. These efforts form the founda- not name specific groups that might tion of the “Allen County Roadmap.” WASHINGTON (AP) — In the be behind any future attacks, but it “Democratic leadership has generated most ambitious U.S. effort to stave off made clear that their motivation would tremendous success in the City of the worst of climate change, President include anger over “the presidential Fort Wayne over the past 20 years, Joe Biden signed executive orders to transition, as well as other perceived making it a great place for families to transform the nation’s heavily fossil- grievances fueled by false narratives,” live, work, and play. Democrats run fuel powered economy into a clean- a clear reference to the accusations and win in Allen County. Now it’s time burning one, pausing oil and gas made by President Donald J. Trump to supercharge that success and win leasing on federal land and targeting and echoed by right-wing groups.