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The Price of Lasting Peace: a Two-Pronged Analysis of the Development Causes of Political Violence in the Bangsamoro Conflict

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The Price of Lasting Peace: a Two-Pronged Analysis of the Development Causes of Political Violence in the Bangsamoro Conflict The Price of Lasting Peace: A Two-Pronged Analysis of the Development Causes of Political Violence in the Bangsamoro Conflict A thesis submitted to the Auckland University of Technology in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Social Sciences authored by Segfrey Dayao Gonzales under the supervision of Dr Kate Nicholls and Dr Erik Landhuis School of Social Sciences and Public Policy Auckland University of Technology May 2017 Abstract Like other developing nations, the Philippines has a long history of internal strife, especially in Mindanao where the Bangsamoro (Moro Nation) separatist struggle has extracted immense human and economic costs over the past five decades. Social science can offer a rich empirical understanding of the causes of these continued outbreaks of political violence in order to better inform policy responses and preventive measures. This thesis examines the Bangsamoro conflict in terms of its relationship with economic development. Drawing on the grievance perspective derived from the cross-country civil war literature, it posits that political violence occurs disproportionately in areas with low levels of economic development. This overarching hypothesis is then tested using multidimensional indicators of development to include measures of social and material well-being and effective governance and service delivery. It then conducts a two-pronged analysis of the causes of conflict. Factors associated with the incidence of political violence, operationally defined as armed clashes between government troops and rebel groups, are first examined using statistical analysis. Specifically, it applies regression analysis to the 2011-2015 Bangsamoro Conflict Monitoring System (BCMS) dataset to identify correlates of the incidence of political violence in municipalities of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), the epicentre of the Moro insurgency. Meanwhile, a process-tracing analysis adds a qualitative layer to the empirical findings by underlining the causal mechanisms that have appeared to either hinder or facilitate violence across two municipal-level case studies. The quantitative findings show that political violence tends to be more frequent in municipalities where local governments are weak, access to particular social services are poor, and people are deprived of economic means such as education and land. Meanwhile, the qualitative findings explain the relationship found between underdevelopment and political violence in terms of the failure of the Philippine State and its local institutions to address these issues of underdevelopment, resulting in the erosion of legitimate authority on the ground and people’s receptivity to rebel alternatives. Taken together, the findings lead to an overarching conclusion that strengthening local government and governance practices is essential to consolidating peace in the region. This thesis underscores that threat of Moro separatism in the Philippines is not just simply an issue of religious/ethnic ideology, but perhaps more importantly of local governance and development. ii Table of Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................. ii List of Tables ....................................................................................................................... vi List of Figures ...................................................................................................................... vi List of Acronyms ............................................................................................................... viii Attestation of Authorship .....................................................................................................x Acknowledgement ............................................................................................................... xi Chapter One ...................................................................................................................................................1 THE GHOSTS OF THE CONFLICT PAST, PRESENT, AND YET TO COME Introduction .................................................................................................................................................1 Ghost of the Conflict Past: The Historical Context of the Bangsamoro Separatist Identity .......................5 The Ghost of the Conflict Present: The Continued Marginalisation ..........................................................9 The Ghost of the Conflict Yet to Come: An Overview of this Thesis ......................................................12 Motivations for the Researcher and Significance of this Thesis ........................................................................... 14 Research Design .................................................................................................................................................... 15 Structure of this Thesis .......................................................................................................................................... 18 Delimitations of this Thesis and Potential Researcher Bias .................................................................................. 20 Chapter Two .................................................................................................................................................21 CONCEPTUALISING VIOLENCE IN A CONTEXT OF A CIVIL CONFLICT Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................21 From Interstate to Intrastate Warfare: Implications for How to Study Civil Conflicts ............................22 How to Study Civil Conflicts? .............................................................................................................................. 23 Violence in Civil Conflicts Conceptually and Operationally Defined .....................................................24 Violence in the Context of a Civil Conflict ........................................................................................................... 26 Political Violence as the Explained Variable ........................................................................................................ 29 Measuring Political Violence ........................................................................................................................... 30 Sifting through the Violence in the Bangsamoro Conflict........................................................................31 Alternate Governance: A Non-violent Threat to the Philippine State’s Sovereignty ........................................... 34 Moving Forward: From Outcome to Potential Causes .............................................................................35 Chapter Three ..............................................................................................................................................37 THE LOGIC OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN A CIVIL CONFLICT: A LITERATURE REVIEW Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................37 The Blind Men and the Elephant: The Different Truths in the Studied Consciousness of Violence .......39 Psychology ............................................................................................................................................................ 41 iii Sociology, Anthropology, and History .................................................................................................................. 43 Economics ............................................................................................................................................................. 43 Political Science .................................................................................................................................................... 45 Towards an Integrated Research Agenda: The Greed and Grievance Model ...........................................46 What Makes People Rebel: Factors Associated with Violent Conflicts ............................................................... 48 Collective Identity ............................................................................................................................................ 48 Resource/Environmental Factors ..................................................................................................................... 50 Socioeconomic and Demographic Factors ....................................................................................................... 51 Greed or Grievance? The Position of this Thesis in the Dialectic ........................................................................ 56 Stressing the role of good governance ............................................................................................................. 58 Clamour from the Ground: The Current Situation in Moro Land ............................................................59 Material Condition................................................................................................................................................. 60 What are the causes of poverty?....................................................................................................................... 63 Social Condition ...................................................................................................................................................
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