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KEY CONCLUSIONS Equity Research China&Hong Kong Utilities (Utilities CN (Asia)) 29 April 2015 China Power Sector THEME Reforms bite! IDEAS ENGINE SERIES Structural ROE trend of the national IPPs New game rules. Safety will become Rule No.1 when investing in the power generators 20% 18% in the coming years amid China's aggressive push for power reforms. Our preliminary 17% analysis of market-based pricing in the recent primer report is now strengthened by the 18% 16% 16% four official documents issued in the past month. Without large demand recovery, 14% electricity will remain a seriously oversupplied commodity, and price war and consolidation 14% could pull the average ROE of national coal-fired IPPs from 17% in 2014 down to 10% 12% 11% The Ideas Engine 10% 10% by 2020E. With 2Q15 earnings likely marking a meaningful inflection, we recommend 10% 9% series showcases investors exit. Credit Suisse’s unique 8% A painful process before gain. The IPPs tariffs could go down further after the recent insights and investment 6% 5% cut and IPPs' tariffs for direct supplied contracts in 2014 (10% lower on average) is a 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E ideas. very strong early signal of what market forces can do. China aims full liberalisation of power pricing and when it happens, depressed tariffs could force the exit of uncompetitive smaller Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates units together with a large impairment (before full depreciation). Competitive survivors could Switch to the safer sectors! Please contact your swell after consolidation but the process could take years and could be painful. Sales person to Safe waters in the storm. Meanwhile, investors should find much better visibility for access the demand and prices in: (1) wind operators; (2) low-cost hydro power generators; and (3) A-share listed local IPPs with protective schemes. Nuclear operators are no longer supplemental attractive with rising uncertainty on utilisation and technology risks. analysis behind this SELL the national IPPs. With valuation nearing a five-year high plus major industry report. headwinds, we recommend investors to sell the national IPPs. We cut target prices and ratings (Huadian-H) on lower sustainable ROEs and our top sells are Huaneng (both A/H) and CR Power. We also downgrade CGN to UNDERPERFORM with an unjustified valuation and rising nuclear earnings risks. Areas that are worth buying include wind operators, low- Source: Credit Suisse research cost hydro power generators and local power utilities (we are initiating on Jingneng and Mengdian with an Outperform). The report follows our China Utilities Reform Primer in March 2015 (click here) RESEARCH ANALYSTS Dave Dai, CFA Ran Ma 852 2101 7358 852 2101 6653 [email protected] [email protected] ® CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access Focus charts Figure 1: Slow demand scenario—utilisation trend would Figure 2: Slow demand scenario—market reform can make Figure 3: IPPs with larger exposure to smaller units could continue to weaken without power reforms consolidation possible see greater shut-down risks Source: CEIC, Credit Suisse estimates Source: CEIC, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data Figure 4: Inner Mongolia enjoys better utilisation hours than the Figure 5: Forward P/B of national IPPs at five-year high despite Figure 6: Switch to the safer sectors! national average upcoming ROE pressure (Hours) (x) 5,400 5,294 20% 5,200 5,102 5,085 5,130 1.6 5,031 5,043 5,012 4,965 16% 5,000 1.4x Avg+2SD 1.4 4,800 4,706 1.2x Avg+1SD 1.2 12% 4,559 4,600 1.0 1.0x Avg 8% 4,400 0.8 0.8x Avg-1SD 4% 4,200 0.6 4,000 0.6x Avg-2SD 0.4 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 China Inner Mongolia ROE (RHS) Source: CEIC Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse estimates, excluding Datang Source: Credit Suisse research The author of this report wishes to acknowledge the contributions made by Gary Zhou, an employee of Evalueserve Research Hong Kong Ltd, a third-party provider to Credit Suisse of research support services. IDEAS ENGINE 2 China Power Sector Figure 7: Valuation summary Name Ticker Rating Price TP Mkt cap P/E (x) P/B (x) Yield (%) ROE (%) %EPS CAGR (US$ bn) 15E 16E 15E 16E 15E 16E 15E 16E 14-16E China Wind power sector Huaneng Renewables 0958.HK O 3.3 4.0 4.1 13.4 9.6 1.5 1.3 1.5 2.1 11.4 14.3 49.2 Longyuan Power 0916.HK O 9.7 11.5 10.0 14.8 11.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.7 12.0 13.5 42.7 China Datang Renewables 1798.HK O 1.3 1.5 1.2 17.0 11.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 4.0 5.6 n.a. Huadian Fuxin Energy 0816.HK O 4.3 5.5 4.7 10.6 8.7 1.7 1.5 1.8 2.9 17.0 18.1 30.2 China Suntien Green Energy 0956.HK O 2.1 2.5 1.0 12.5 8.6 0.8 0.7 2.7 4.0 6.4 8.8 44.4 Simple average 13.7 10.1 1.3 1.1 1.6 2.3 10.2 12.1 41.6 China Hydro power sector SDIC Power 600886.SS N 12.5 12.5 13.7 11.7 11.0 3.1 2.6 3.0 3.2 28.5 25.5 17.3 China Yangtze Power Co Ltd 600900.SS O 12.6 14.8 33.6 17.6 18.6 2.3 2.2 2.9 2.7 13.6 12.1 -1.7 Sichuan Chuantou Energy 600674.SS O 26.2 30.0 9.3 11.4 10.9 3.2 2.6 1.3 1.4 32.1 26.3 23.6 Simple average 13.6 13.5 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.4 24.7 21.3 13.0 China IPPs sector - A (Local) Inner Mongolia Mengdian 600863.SS O 6.1 7.5 5.7 34.2 21.4 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.3 9.4 14.5 10.5 Jingneng Power 600578.SS O 8.1 10.0 6.0 17.6 18.2 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 14.1 12.5 -10.3 Simple average 26.0 19.9 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.1 11.8 13.5 0.1 China Nuclear sector CGN Power 1816.HK U 4.5 3.4 26.3 26.3 22.8 3.0 2.7 1.3 1.5 11.7 12.5 11.9 China IPPs sector - H (National) Datang International Power 0991.HK O 4.8 4.6 14.9 10.5 8.7 1.1 1.0 3.8 4.6 10.4 11.6 52.1 Huadian Power International 1071.HK U 8.7 6.4 11.9 11.0 12.3 1.7 1.6 3.7 3.3 16.6 13.6 -8.7 China Resources Power 0836.HK U 23.3 16.3 14.4 9.2 9.3 1.4 1.3 3.5 3.8 16.2 14.5 14.4 Huaneng Power International 0902.HK U 11.3 7.3 24.3 10.8 12.0 1.7 1.6 5.1 4.6 16.6 13.8 -0.3 Simple average 10.4 10.6 1.5 1.4 4.0 4.1 14.9 13.4 14.4 China IPPs sector - A (National) Huadian Power International 600027.SS U 8.7 5.1 11.9 13.8 15.4 2.2 2.0 2.9 2.6 16.6 13.6 -8.7 Datang International Power 601991.SS U 7.9 3.7 14.9 21.6 18.1 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.2 10.4 11.6 52.1 Huaneng Power International 600011.SS U 11.0 5.8 24.3 13.1 14.6 2.1 2.0 4.2 3.8 16.6 13.8 -0.3 Simple average 16.2 16.0 2.1 2.0 3.0 2.9 14.5 13.0 14.4 China City Gas sector China Gas Holdings Ltd 0384.HK O 14.3 17.5 9.2 18.0 14.3 3.4 2.9 1.3 1.7 20.2 21.6 25.2 Beijing Enterprises Holdings 0392.HK O 72.1 82.0 12.0 15.7 13.7 1.5 1.4 1.9 2.2 10.1 10.7 17.9 China Resources Gas 1193.HK O 27.1 27.0 7.8 19.4 15.4 3.2 2.8 1.1 1.4 17.6 19.2 24.1 ENN Energy Holdings Ltd 2688.HK O 56.7 56.0 7.9 18.3 15.6 3.5 3.0 1.6 1.9 20.6 20.9 15.9 Shenzhen Gas Corporation 601139.SS U 12.3 6.6 3.9 30.6 27.2 4.1 3.8 1.3 1.5 14.0 14.5 11.3 Kunlun Energy 0135.HK N 9.1 8.7 9.4 14.4 12.3 1.3 1.2 2.0 2.3 9.3 10.1 2.8 Hong Kong and China Gas 0003.HK U 18.7 15.0 25.3 26.3 24.9 3.5 3.3 2.3 2.4 13.8 13.8 5.2 Simple average 20.4 17.7 2.9 2.6 1.6 1.9 15.1 15.8 14.6 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates IDEAS ENGINE 3 China Power Sector New game rules YTD 2015, the national IPPs have mostly underperformed the broader index and most other P/B-based target prices with lower sustainable ROE (average of a stable demand and slow utilities sub-sectors.
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