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Huaneng Renewables (958 HK)

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Huaneng Renewables (958 HK) Hong Kong Utilities 3 April 2018 Huaneng Renewables (958 HK) Target price: HKD3.35 (from HKD2.55) Share price (3 Apr): HKD3.04 | Up/downside: +10.2% Rerating on improving financials Dennis Ip, CFA (852) 2848 4068 Faster subsidy collection likely from the RPS and recovering RE Fund [email protected] We expect positive FCF and continued decline in net gearing in 2018 Daniel Yang (852) 2848 4443 Upgrading to Outperform (2) from Hold (3); raising TP to HKD3.35 [email protected] What's new: We believe that the two recently released supportive policies Forecast revisions (%) should benefit Huaneng Renewables (HNR) with faster subsidy collection Year to 31 Dec 18E 19E 20E and improving financials, which were major market concerns about HNR. Revenue change 5.7 2.3 n.a. Net profit change 10.6 11.8 n.a. What's the impact: The upcoming RPS is asking grids to pay Core EPS (FD) change 14.0 15.2 n.a. renewable energy subsidies in advance. Recently, the Chinese Source: Daiwa forecasts government announced the launch of a Renewable Energy Portfolio (RPS) Share price performance in 2018. Although the main target of this programme is to lower wind/solar curtailment, which should help HNR record higher utilisation, we believe it (HKD) (%) 3.1 105 will also benefit wind IPPs through faster conversion of receivables, as the 2.9 96 renewable energy subsidy will be paid by local grids in advance for those 2.7 88 projects already included in the renewable energy subsidy catalogue. 2.5 79 2.3 70 More inflows likely into the RE Fund as captive power plants required Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 to settle unpaid surcharges. The NDRC published a document last week H'neng Ren (LHS) Relative to HSI (RHS) requiring all captive power plants to settle unpaid government charges, including the renewable energy surcharges. We estimate the Renewable 12-month range 2.33-3.07 Energy (RE) Fund will collect an extra CNY61bn in 2018 and reduce the Market cap (USDbn) 3.97 shortfall by end-2018 to CNY175bn from CNY256bn. Hence, we expect the 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 10.21 th Shares outstanding (m) 10,252 7 batch of the RE subsidy catalogue to be released soon and the due Major shareholder Huaneng Group (56.9%) subsidy under this catalogue to be settled soon. We note that HNR has around 22% capacity exposure and CNY3bn in subsidies due under the 7th Financial summary (CNY) batch of the catalogue, among the highest of the major wind IPPs (please Year to 31 Dec 18E 19E 20E see China Wind: Faster subsidy collection likely from lower shortfall in Revenue (m) 10,990 11,673 12,227 Renewable Energy Fund dated 3 April 2018). Operating profit (m) 6,256 6,754 7,145 Net profit (m) 3,515 3,936 4,240 Faster subsidy collection and improving financials likely in 2018. Core EPS (fully-diluted) 0.343 0.384 0.414 EPS change (%) 16.7 12.0 7.7 HNR’s receivables by end-2017 surged by 56% YoY to CNY7.2bn, but this Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 0.3 (0.3) (3.6) should be of less concern in 2018, given the likely faster subsidy collection. PER (x) 7.1 6.3 5.9 Thus, together with a moderate capacity expansion (550MW in 2018), HNR Dividend yield (%) 2.3 2.5 2.7 should achieve positive FCF and see its net gearing ratio drop significantly DPS 0.055 0.061 0.066 PBR (x) 0.9 0.8 0.7 from 192% by end-2017 to 162% by end-2018, in our view. EV/EBITDA (x) 7.3 6.6 5.9 ROE (%) 13.5 13.5 13.0 What we recommend: We raise our 2018-19E EPS by 14-15% to mainly Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts factor in our higher wind tariff and utilisation assumptions, which will lead to higher operating efficiency and margins. We upgrade our rating from Hold (3) to Outperform (2) and lift our PER-based TP to HKD3.35 (from HKD2.55) on a higher benchmark of 9.0x 2018E PER (from 7.5x), as we believe HNR should see a rerating on improving financials, after being derated in 2017 on concerns over subsidy delays. We see the implementation of the above-mentioned policies to be a positive share- price catalyst. Key risk: unsatisfactory execution of government policies. How we differ: Our 2019-20E EPS estimates are 1-4% below the consensus, likely as we see less upside in HNR’s wind utilisation hour after reaching 2,200 in 2019E. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 5 Huaneng Renewables (958 HK): 3 April 2018 HNR: changes to assumptions New Old Chg Average wind tariff (CNY/kWh) 2018 0.544 0.540 1% 2019 0.539 0.529 2% Average wind utilisation hour 2018 2,165 2,146 1% 2019 2,209 2,189 1% New wind capacity addition 2018 450 1,000 -55% 2019 600 1,000 -40% Source: Daiwa HNR vs. Longyuan: trade receivables breakdown China wind: exposure to editions of subsidy catalogue HNR Longyuan 8th and CNY bn Portion CNY bn Portion 1-5th 6th 7th subsequent Due from tariff subsidy: China Resources Power 45% 11% 11% 34% -Outstanding for over 2 years 0.3 4% 0.3 5% China Longyuan Power 61% 12% 13% 13% -Outstanding for 1-2 years 1.3 18% 0.4 6% Huaneng Renewables 52% 18% 22% 8% -Outstanding for within 1 year 4.7 64% 3.2 52% Huadian Fuxin 39% 26% 21% 14% Subtotal 6.3 86% 3.9 63% Goldwind 28% 15% 22% 35% Due from tariffs paid by poer grids 1.0 14% 2.3 37% Suntien 40% 10% 12% 37% Total 7.3 100% 6.2 100% Comment on subsidy Some Qualifying for subsidy - including under the 7th batch subsidy catalogue 3.0 41% 3.1 50% payment Timely delay catalogue Not available Source: Company Source: NEA, Company, Daiwa HNR: net gearing ratio HNR and Longyuan: net profit (CNYm) 300% 7,000 Longyuan: 18% CAGR 252% 6,000 250% HNR: 12% CAGR 240% 5,000 200% 192% 4,000 162% 3,000 150% 137% 2,000 114% 100% 1,000 50% 0 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 0% 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Longyuan HNR Source: Company, Daiwa Source: Company, Daiwa HNR: 1-year-forward PER HNR: 1-year-forward PBR PER (x) PBR (x) 28 2.0 1.8 23 21.7x Avg+2SD 1.6 1.6x Avg+2SD 1.4 18 1.3x Avg+1SD 16.5x Avg+1SD 1.2 13 1.1x Avg 11.4x Avg 1.0 0.8 0.8x Avg-1SD 8 6.3x Avg-1SD 0.6 0.6x Avg-2SD 3 0.4 1.1x Avg-2SD 0.2 (2) 0.0 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg 2 Huaneng Renewables (958 HK): 3 April 2018 Financial summary Key assumptions Year to 31 Dec 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Consolidated capacity - Total (MW) 6,551 8,011 10,345 11,087 11,569 12,116 12,816 13,416 Consolidated capacity - wind (MW) 6,221 7,526 9,720 10,252 10,689 11,136 11,736 12,236 Wind power utilization hours (hours) 2,029 1,875 1,882 1,966 2,082 2,165 2,209 2,209 Solar power utilization hours (hours) n.a. 1,420 1,591 1,373 1,449 1,464 1,478 1,493 Consolidated wind power output (Million 10,837 11,170 13,232 17,684 20,344 21,674 23,226 24,535 Kwh) Average on-grid wind farm tariff 0.594 0.598 0.598 0.562 0.553 0.544 0.539 0.533 (CNY/kWh) Average on-grid solar farm tariff n.a. 0.99 0.89 0.89 0.86 0.82 0.79 0.76 (CNY/kWh) Profit and loss (CNYm) Year to 31 Dec 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Sales of electricity 5,440 6,114 7,354 9,233 10,548 10,984 11,667 12,221 Service concession construction 355 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 revenue Other Revenue 2 4 3 6 6 6 6 6 Total Revenue 5,798 6,151 7,357 9,239 10,554 10,990 11,673 12,227 Other income 79 168 435 322 469 352 373 390 COGS (446) (120) (109) (189) (191) (220) (236) (249) SG&A (352) (447) (559) (626) (762) (793) (807) (809) Other op.expenses (2,351) (2,406) (3,008) (3,837) (4,419) (4,073) (4,248) (4,414) Operating profit 2,727 3,346 4,116 4,908 5,651 6,256 6,754 7,145 Net-interest inc./(exp.) (1,740) (2,112) (2,073) (1,995) (2,238) (2,233) (2,204) (2,192) Assoc/forex/extraord./others (3) (2) (3) (3) (5) (5) (5) (5) Pre-tax profit 984 1,232 2,041 2,910 3,408 4,018 4,546 4,948 Tax (67) (86) (141) (202) (346) (449) (553) (651) Min. int./pref. div./others (29) (26) (40) (49) (50) (54) (57) (57) Net profit (reported) 888 1,121 1,860 2,659 3,012 3,515 3,936 4,240 Net profit (adjusted) 888 1,121 1,860 2,659 3,012 3,515 3,936 4,240 EPS (reported)(CNY) 0.104 0.124 0.191 0.273 0.294 0.343 0.384 0.414 EPS (adjusted)(CNY) 0.104 0.124 0.191 0.273 0.294 0.343 0.384 0.414 EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(CNY) 0.104 0.124 0.191 0.273 0.294 0.343 0.384 0.414 DPS (CNY) 0.020 0.020 0.030 0.041 0.043 0.055 0.061 0.066 EBIT 2,727 3,346 4,116 4,908 5,651 6,256 6,754 7,145 EBITDA 4,659 5,616 6,851 8,370 9,449 9,682 10,351 10,913 Cash flow (CNYm) Year to 31 Dec 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Profit before tax 984 1,232 2,041 2,910 3,408 4,018 4,546 4,948 Depreciation and amortisation 1,931 2,270 2,735 3,462 3,798 3,427 3,597 3,768 Tax paid (67) (86) (141) (202) (348) (449) (553) (651) Change in working capital 578 13 347 (3,079) (2,664) 185 528 (31) Other operational CF items 2,492 2,695 2,701 4,248 1,114 2,294 2,322 2,320 Cash flow from operations 5,918 6,125 7,682 7,338 5,308 9,476 10,439 10,353 Capex (7,717) (13,827) (13,549) (6,909) (3,697) (4,087) (5,044) (4,172) Net (acquisitions)/disposals (12) (513) (468) (16) 0 0 0 0 Other investing CF items 1,076 1,379 1,503 (444) 1,076 0 0 0 Cash flow from investing (6,653) (12,961) (12,514) (7,370) (2,621) (4,087) (5,044) (4,172) Change in debt 2,709 10,489 5,246 1,277 7,000 0 (2,000) (2,000) Net share issues/(repurchases) 1,230 1,358 0 0 1,934 0 0 0 Dividends paid (95) (382) (480) (292) (441) (562) (630) (678) Other financing CF items (2,480) (2,577) (2,989) (2,843) (11,248) (2,286) (2,317) (2,315) Cash flow from financing 1,364 8,889 1,778 (1,858) (2,755) (2,848) (4,947) (4,993) Forex effect/others (80) 10 139 85 0 0 0 0 Change in cash 550 2,062 (2,915) (1,804) (67) 2,541 448 1,188 Free cash
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