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China Wind and Solar China Utilities 11 July 2019 China Wind and Solar Prefer upstream product makers to downstream project operators We expect wind and solar product demand to be supported by robust installations over 2019-21E Dennis Ip, CFA Downstream project operators continue to be impacted by worsening (852) 2848 4068 cash flow resulting from delays in collecting subsidies [email protected] Anna Lu, CFA We prefer the manufacturers of upstream wind and solar products (852) 2848 4465 (positive) to downstream project operators (negative) [email protected] See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 105 China Wind and Solar: 11 July 2019 Table of contents 2019-21 summary: prefer renewable upstream product makers to downstream project operators .................................................................................................... 5 Grid and retail parity in sight ................................................................................. 10 Wind equipment: to benefit from rush installations in 2019-21 .......................... 17 Wind IPP: worsening cash flows in 2019-21E ...................................................... 21 Solar product: be selective among segments ..................................................... 25 Solar farm operators: distressed cash flow with liquidity risk ........................... 54 Stock calls ............................................................................................................... 59 Risks to our Neutral sector view ........................................................................... 61 Company Section Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology ........................................................................63 China Longyuan Power ....................................................................................................67 Huaneng Renewables ......................................................................................................71 China Datang Corp Renewable Power ............................................................................75 China Resources Power ..................................................................................................79 Huaneng Power International ...........................................................................................83 Huadian Fuxin Energy .....................................................................................................87 China Suntien Green Energy ...........................................................................................91 GCL-Poly Energy .............................................................................................................95 Xinyi Solar Holdings .........................................................................................................99 China Utilities 11 July 2019 China Wind and Solar Prefer upstream product makers to downstream project operators We expect wind and solar product demand to be supported by robust installations over 2019-21E Dennis Ip, CFA Downstream project operators continue to be impacted by worsening (852) 2848 4068 cash flow resulting from delays in collecting subsidies [email protected] Prev. Xinjiang Goldwind ScienceAnna &Lu, Technology CFA (2208 HK) We prefer the manufacturers of upstream wind and solar products Rating (852) Buy2848 4465 Buy [email protected] (positive) to downstream project operators (negative) Target 11.90 11.90 Upside p 36.9% China Longyuan Power (916 HK) Rating Hold Outperform What's new: We see 2019-21 as a special period prior to grid and retail KeyTarget stock calls 5.40 5.75 parity for China’s Wind and Solar Sector. In our view, robust wind and solar Upside p 4.7%New Prev. installations over 2019-21 will support upstream product demand. TongweiXinjiang Goldwind(600438 CH) Science & Technology (2208 HK) Meanwhile, downstream project operators face worsening cash flows due Rating OutperformBuy OutperformBuy to subsidy delays. Thus, we prefer upstream wind and solar product Target 15.2011.90 15.2011.90 Upside p 14.4%36.9% makers over downstream project operators, and suggest being further LONGiChina Longyuan Green Energy Power Technology (916 HK) (601012 CH) selective by choosing those better positioned in terms of demand/supply of Rating OutperformHold Outperform sub-segments, as well as company-level competitive advantages. Target 24.505.40 25.505.75 Upside p 13.1%4.7% What's the impact: As approved wind projects with fixed tariffs and those XinyiTongwei Solar (600438 Holdings CH) (968 HK) Rating UnderperformOutperform UnderperformOutperform gained via competitive bidding should start operation before end-2020/21E, Target 15.203.50 15.203.80 we expect rush installations in the wind segment over 2019-21E (we DownsideUpside qp 14.4%6.2% forecast 25-33GW vs. 21GW in 2018). With its solar policy finalised in Source:LONGi Daiwa Green forecasts Energy Technology (601012 CH) 2Q19, we expect China’s solar installations to kick off in 2H19, with likely Rating Outperform Outperform stable full-year demand over 2019-20 (40-42GW) before recovering in 2021 Target 24.50 25.50 (50GW on retail parity). With increasing overseas solar installations, we Upside p 13.1% Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK) expect global solar installations to rise from 107GW in 2018 to 125-150GW Rating Underperform Underperform over 2019-21E. Meanwhile, with a large deficit in the Renewable Energy Target 3.50 3.80 (RE) Fund, subsidy collection delays will likely persist in 2019-21, weighing Downside q 6.2% on project operators’ cash flows. We prefer upstream makers to downstream operators, and are positive on wind turbine generator (WTG) makers in the wind sector. For solar, we are selective with the following criteria: 1) supply-demand conditions (prefer polysilicon and solar glass), 2) competitive landscape (prefer leaders in more consolidated segments like wafer, solar glass and polysilicon), 3) low downstream solar project exposure, 4) technology shift to high-efficiency products (mono wafers and PERC cells), 5) healthy balance sheets, and 6) undemanding valuations. What we recommend: We downgrade China Wind to Neutral from Positive, and upgrade China Solar to Neutral from Negative. For Wind, we are positive on Goldwind (2208 HK, HKD8.69, Buy [1]), a leading WTG maker vs. other wind IPPs, and downgrade Longyuan (916 HK, HKD5.16) and DTR (1798 HK, HKD0.78) to Hold (3). In Solar, we downgrade GCL- Poly (3800 HK, HKD0.43) to Hold (3) on short-term refinancing risk, despite its appealing valuation. We have an Underperform (4) on Xinyi Solar (968 HK, HKD3.73) due to its rich valuation. Upside/downside sector risks: higher-/ lower-than-expected installations; better-/worse-than-expected subsidy payment. How we differ: We hold different views on different sub-segments in the renewable sector and prefer upstream makers to downstream operators. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 105 China Wind and Solar: 11 July 2019 How do we justify our view? Growth outlook Valuation Earnings revisions Growth outlook China Wind and Solar: revenue, EBIT, and net profit growth We expect Goldwind to see a 13% net profit CAGR in 2018-21E CAGR 2018-21E 2018-21E, with FCF yield expansion, mainly led by rising Recurring Yield gap FCF yield Company Ticker Rating Revenue EBIT net profit change change WTG sales. While wind IPPs should see net profit CAGRs Goldwind 2208 HK Buy 17% 12% 13% 1.5pp 22.3pp of 5-19% in 2019-21E amid capacity rises, we expect their Longyuan 916 HK Hold 4% 10% 10% 1.5pp -15.9pp cash flows to worsen, with declining FCF yields. While HNR 958 HK Hold 11% 13% 10% 1.5pp -44.8pp DTR 1798 HK Hold 10% 13% 13% 2.6pp -135.4pp GCL-Poly’s net profit may turn positive in 2019E, we are Huadian Fuxin 816 HK Buy 6% 19% 19% 5.6pp -61.0pp concerned about its short-term refinancing risk. XYS Suntien 956 HK Buy 20% 16% 5% 1.6pp -5.1pp should see a 19% net profit CAGR in 2018-21E, but with a GCL-Poly 3800 HK Hold -5% 13% n.a. 0.8pp 96.1pp Xinyi Solar 968 HK U/P 22% 22% 19% 2.8pp 6.0pp limited FCF boost given capex on capacity expansion and CRP 836 HK Hold -2% 12% 11% 3.2pp -10.7pp solar farm exposure. CRP faces worsening FCF given HNP-H 902 HK Buy 2% 37% 53% 5.7pp -22.1pp aggressive plans to add wind capacity, in our view. Source: Daiwa forecasts Valuation China Wind and Solar: PBR vs. OCF/Invested capital China’s Wind and Solar Sector is trading at a wide PBR 2020E OCF/Invested capital 25% range of 0.3-4.0x for 2019E. The wind IPPs are trading at Tongwei 0.4-0.7x 2019E PBRs, c.1SD below their averages since 20% listing, likely due to cash-flow concerns from subsidy delays and rising capex. Goldwind is trading at 1.0x 15% LONGi Longyuan 2019E PBR, 0.7SD below its historical mean, likely due to HDFX 10% HNR Goldwind market concerns over a GPM decline in 2019, though we CRP XYS GCL-Poly Suntien expect a pick-up in 2020. As for solar, Tongwei and LONGi HNP-A 5% HNP-H are trading at higher 3.0x and 4.0x 2019E PBRs, likely on DTR rapid market-share gains. XYS is trading at a 2.2x 2019E 0% 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 PBR, 0.5SD above its past-3-year mean and higher than 2019E PBR peers’. GCL-Poly is only at a 0.3x 2019E PBR amid short- Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa estimates term refinancing risks. CRP and HNP-H are trading at 0.7x 2019E PBR, 1-1.7SD below their historical averages. Earnings revisions China Wind and Solar: Bloomberg 2019E EPS consensus trend The market has cut its 2019E EPS
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