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Huaneng Renewables Corporation Limited (958 file:///C|/Documents and Settings/qfyang.queena/桌面/今天/958 HK).htm JPM-pp1 Asia Pacific Equity Research 14 July 2015 Overweight Huaneng Renewables Corporation Price: HK$3.15 13 Jul 2015 Limited (958 HK) Price Target: HK$3.50 PT End Date: 30 Jun 2016 Strong wind output growth in 1H2015 (+29% Y/Y). Reiterate OW • Huaneng Renewables announced its 1H15 wind output of 7,512GWh, representing a 29% Y/Y increase, compared to +22% Y/Y for Longyuan and an improvement over the company’s 1Q2015 run rate (24% Y/Y). The strong growth was mainly driven by better wind resource in Inner Mongolia (+30% Y/Y), Liaoning (+19% Y/Y), Yunnan (+39% Y/ Y), Guangdong (+37% Y/Y) and Hebei (37% Y/Y); and 2) contribution from new capacity additions in provinces such as Guizhou (+71% Y/Y), Jilin (+95% Y/Y) and Shaanxi (+226% Y/Y), but partly offset by lower output in Xinjiang (- 33% Y/Y), and Shanghai (-18% Y/Y). With a lower base in 2H2014, we expect the run rate to further accelerate in 2H15. • Wind utilization was 998 hours in 1H15, up 6% Y/Y (Longyuan: +7.4% Y/Y in 1H15). • Solar power output increased by 66% Y/Y. • Earlier than expected rollout: As announced by Longyuan, 1.0GW of wind capacity installation was completed in 1H2015, representing ~50-60% of management’s full year target of 1.8GW. We expect Huaneng Renewables to enjoy a similar trend where >30% of its full year target was completed in 1H2015. • Reiterate OW: We continue to remain positive on the wind power sector. Huaneng Renewables is our pick in the space thanks to its geared exposure to wind farm utilization recovery. Table 1: Huaneng Renewables power output numbers Power generation (In MWh) Jan-Jun 2015 Jan-Jun 2014 Y/Y Inner Mongolia 1,673,156 1,282,314 30% Liaoning 1,109,376 931,442 19% Shandong 979,232 919,245 7% Yunnan 1,233,283 887,065 39% Shanxi 679,473 561,437 21% Guizhou 548,567 321,216 71% Guangdong 339,558 247,381 37% Hebei 361,192 263,495 37% Sichuan 189,126 - - Xinjiang 193,917 291,214 -33% Jilin 96,357 49,430 95% Shanghai 51,352 62,487 -18% Shaanxi 54,560 16,720 226% Zhejiang 2,837 - - Wind output 7,511,985 5,833,445 29% Solar output 379,971 229,029 66% Total 7,891,956 6,062,474 30% Source: Company data Table 2: Huaneng Renewables utilization Utilization hours (In MWh) Jan-Jun 2015 Jan-Jun 2014 Y/Y Inner Mongolia 947 747 27% Liaoning 891 778 15% Shandong 1,028 1,030 0% Yunnan 1,777 1,493 19% Shanxi 1,000 1,170 -15% Guizhou 671 680 -1% Guangdong 962 911 6% Hebei 1,012 971 4% file:///C|/Documents and Settings/qfyang.queena/桌面/今天/958 HK).htm（第 1／5 页）2015-7-15 8:43:51 file:///C|/Documents and Settings/qfyang.queena/桌面/今天/958 HK).htm Sichuan 769 - - Xinjiang 979 1,471 -33% Jilin 973 999 -3% Shanghai 856 1,041 -18% Shaanxi 933 929 0% Zhejiang - - - Wind utilization 998 938 6% Solar utilization 783.44 694.03 13% Source: Company data, utilization hours were calculated based on the installed capacity as of Dec-14 and Dec-13. Investment Thesis Huaneng Renewable (HNR) is the listed platform for the Huaneng Group’s renewable assets (wind and solar) with a total installed capacity of 8.0GW as of Dec 2014, of which 96% was from wind and 4% from solar. The company is the second- largest wind farm operator in China with wind farms located mainly in Inner Mongolia, Liaoning and Shandong. Our bullish view on the stock is based on a combination of near-term and long-term drivers. From a near-term perspective, we expect HNR to benefit from: (1) wind farm utilization recovery, (2) faster-than-expected capacity rollout, and (3) potential asset injections. In addition, we remain positive on the sector’s mid- to long-term outlook thanks to easing on grid curtailment with more planned UHV lines operational in 2017-18E. Overall, we expect a 39% earnings CAGR in 2014-17E). Valuation Our Jun-16 PT of HK$3.50 is based on a 25-year DCF valuation with a WACC of 8.6%. Beta: 1.3 Risk-free rate: 4% Market Premium: 6% Cost of Equity, Ke: 11% Cost of Debt, Kd: 5% E/V: 60% D/V: 40% WACC: 8.6% Risks to Rating and Price Target Downside risks include: 1) lower-than-expected wind farm utilization and 2) further wind tariff cuts. China wind AC Boris Kan (852) 2800-8573 [email protected] Bloomberg JPMA KAN <GO> Elaine Wu (852) 2800-8575 [email protected] J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited www.jpmorganmarkets.com Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. For all Korea-based research analysts listed on the front cover, they also certify, as per KOFIA requirements, that their analysis was made in good faith and that the views reflect their own opinion, without undue influence or intervention. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Important Disclosures • Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients: Huaneng Renewables Corporation Limited. file:///C|/Documents and Settings/qfyang.queena/桌面/今天/958 HK).htm（第 2／5 页）2015-7-15 8:43:51 file:///C|/Documents and Settings/qfyang.queena/桌面/今天/958 HK).htm • Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: Huaneng Renewables Corporation Limited. • Client/Non-Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients, and the services provided were non-securities-related: Huaneng Renewables Corporation Limited. • Non-Investment Banking Compensation: J.P. Morgan has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from Huaneng Renewables Corporation Limited. Company-Specific Disclosures: Important disclosures, including price charts and credit opinion history tables, are available for compendium reports and all J.P. Morgan–covered companies by visiting https://jpmm.com/research/disclosures, calling 1-800-477-0406, or e-mailing research.disclosure. [email protected] with your request. J.P. Morgan’s Strategy, Technical, and Quantitative Research teams may screen companies not covered by J.P. Morgan. For important disclosures for these companies, please call 1-800-477-0406 or e-mail [email protected]. Date Rating Share Price Price http://gps-app.emea.jpmchase.net:6080/server/console/chart/? (HK$) Target (HK shareClassId=1009346&shareClassServerId=4&chartDesignation=1&actionType=CHART&isAdr=false&isUSDTranslation=false&cos=false&image$) TypeId=4&chartHeight=288&chartWidth=456&svrTs=1436831846972 09-Jul-15 OW 2.59 3.50 The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire period. J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe: J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Not Rated (NR): J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and, if applicable, the price target, for this stock because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable, the price target, no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not a recommendation or a rating. In our Asia (ex-Australia) and U.K. small- and mid-cap equity research, each stock’s expected total return is compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country market index, not to those analysts’ coverage universe. If it does not appear in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying analyst’s coverage universe can be found on J.P.
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