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Optimization of Power System Operation and Development Under Emission Trading Scheme

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Optimization of Power System Operation and Development Under Emission Trading Scheme FACULTY OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING AND COMPUTING ROBERT PAŠIČKO OPTIMIZATION OF POWER SYSTEM OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT UNDER EMISSION TRADING SCHEME DOCTORAL THESIS Zagreb, 2014 FACULTY OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING AND COMPUTING ROBERT PAŠIČKO OPTIMIZATION OF POWER SYSTEM OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT UNDER EMISSION TRADING SCHEME DOCTORAL THESIS Supervisors: Associate Professor Željko Tomšić, PhD Professor Ivar Wangensteen, PhD Zagreb, 2014 FAKULTET ELEKTROTEHNIKE I RAČUNARSTVA ROBERT PAŠIČKO OPTIMIZACIJA RADA I RAZVOJA ELEKTROENERGETSKOG SUSTAVA U UVJETIMA TRGOVANJA EMISIJAMA DOKTORSKI RAD Mentori: Izv. prof. dr. sc. Zeljko Tomsic Prof. dr. sc. Ivar Wangensteen Zagreb, 2014 Doctoral thesis is prepared at: University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, Department of Energy and Power Systems; United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Environmental Governance Programme, Zagreb, Croatia; and Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway Supervisors: Associate Professor Željko Tomšić, PhD, University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, Zagreb, Croatia Professor Ivar Wangensteen, PhD, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway Doctoral thesis has: 317 pages Doctoral thesis no.:____ The dissertation evaluation committee: 1. Professor Slavko Krajcar, Ph.D. University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 2. Professor Vladimir Mikuličić, Ph.D. University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 3. Associate Professor Andrej Gubina, Ph.D. University of Ljubljana Faculty of Electrical Engineering The dissertation defense committee: 1. Professor Slavlo Krajcar, Ph.D. University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 2. Professor Vladimir Mikuličić, Ph.D. University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 3. Associate Professor Andrej Gubina, Ph.D. University of Ljubljana Faculty of Electrical Engineering Date of dissertation defense: 9th July 2014 About the supervisor – Željko Tomšić Željko Tomšić was born in Vrbovec in 1957. He received B.Sc., M.Sc. and Ph.D. degrees in electrical engineering from the University of Zagreb, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing (FER), Zagreb, Croatia, in 1981, 1990 and 2001, respectively. From 1991 he is working at the Department of Energy and Power Systems at FER. In January 2010 he was promoted to associate Professor. From 2004 to 2008 he had the position of Assistant Minister for Energy and Mining in the Ministry of Economy, Labor and Entrepreneurship. From 2008 to 2009 he was Member of HEP d.d. (Croatian Power Utility) Management Board for strategy, corporate development, international relations and gas business development. He was head of Government Working Group for preparation of Accession Negotiations with EU on the chapter 15 – Energy. He participated in six scientific projects financed by the Ministry of Science, Education and Sports of the Republic of Croatia and leader of two EU FP projects. He had many invited lectures on international and national scientific and expert conferences. Assoc. Prof. Tomšić is a member of the Croatian Academy of Engineering (HATZ), a senior member of IEEE, HK CIGRE, Croatian Nuclear Energy Society, KOREMA, European Nuclear Society. O mentoru - Željko Tomšić Željko Tomšić rođen je u Vrbovcu 1957. godine. Diplomirao je, magistrirao i doktorirao u polju elektrotehnike na Sveučilištu u Zagrebu Fakultetu elektrotehnike i računarstva (FER), 1981., 1990. odnosno 2001. godine. Od 1991. godine radi na Zavodu za visoki napon energetiku FER-a. U siječnju 2010. godine izabran je u zvanje izvanrednog profesora. Od 2004. do 2008. bio je na dužnosti Pomoćnika ministra za energetiku i rudarstvo u Ministarstvu gospodarstva, rada i poduzetništva RH. Bio je Član Uprave HEP d.d., te predsjednik Nadzornog odbora, JANAF d.d., HEP d.d., HROTE; potpredsjednik KONČAR d.d. Sudjelovao je na šest znanstvenih projekata Ministarstva znanosti, obrazovanja i sporta RH i sudjelovao je na dva FP EU projekta. Koautor Sveučilišnog udžbenika „Elektrane i okoliš“. Objavio je preko 100 radova u međunarodnim i domaćim časopisima i zbornicima radova međunarodnih konferencija, te je koautor na preko pedeset znanstvenih i stručnih studija. Bio je voditelj Radne skupine za poglavlje 15 Energetika pristupnih pregovora za EU. Prof.dr.sc. Tomšić je član Hrvatske akademije tehničkih znanosti, IEEE senior member, HED, HK CIGRE, HND, KOREMA, European Nuclear Society. About the supervisor – Ivar Wangensteen Ivar Wangensteen was born in Valdres, Norway in 1946. He received a MSc in 1971and a PhD in 1974 in Electrical Engineering from the Norwegian Institute of Technology. He received a M.Sc. in Economics from the University of Oslo in 1984. He has worked for Statkraft, The Norwegian Water Resources and Electricity Board (NVE) and the Norwegian Research Council. Since 1986 he has been with SINTEF Energy Research. Since 2002 he has been a Professor at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU). He is teaching in NTNU’s master program on Energy and Environment. The main subject is Power Markets, Resources and Environment. He has been lecturing at the Indian Institute of Technology, Mumbai. He has been engaged in several research projects and has 65 international publications. Prof. Wangensteen has been engaged in consulting for international clients (EPDC, Japan; EDF, France; The World Bank). O mentoru – Ivar Wangensteen Ivar Wangensteen rođen je u mjestu Valdres u Norveškoj 1946. godine. Magistrirao je na polju elektrotehnike 1971. godine, a doktorirao 1974. godine. Također je magistrirao ekonomiju na Sveučilištu u Oslu 1984. godine. Radio je za Statkraft, Norvešku upravu za vodne resurse i električnu energiju (NVE) i Norveško istraživačko vijeće. Od 2002. godine profesor je na Norveškom sveučilištu znanosti i tehnologije (NTNU). Predavač je na diplomskom (Master) programu Energija i okoliš na NTNU. Glavni predmet je Tržište električne energije, izvori i okoliš. Također je i predavač na Indijskom institutu tehnologije u Mumbaiu. Uključen je u više istraživačkih projekata i ima 65 međunarodnih publikacija. Prof. Wangensteen radio je kao konzultant za brojne međunarodne klijente (EPDC, Japan; EDF, Francuska; Svjetska banka). PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This doctoral thesis is the result of research performed within Ph.D. study at the Department of Energy and Power Systems at University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, UNDP Croatia, Joanneum Research (Graz, Austria), Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Bangkok, Thailand) and Norwegian University of Science and Technology (Trondheim, Norway). But also it is the result of experiences gained through generation expansion planning, power system modeling, consulting on emission trading impacts on a power system and participation in the processes for design and implementation of low emission development projects. Acknowledgments Today, in the world of raising complexities, an individual cannot do much alone, and true endeavors all take teamwork and cooperation. I would like to acknowledge contribution to this research from the FP7 project CLIMRUN (Climate Local Information in the Mediterranean region Responding to User Needs), funded by European Commission. I am grateful to Lin Herencic for efforts in developing Model for estimation of sustainable development impacts, to Daniela Carrington for discussions on the concepts of climate change and low emission development, to Benjamin Bartle and Goran Loncar for their help in the understanding the overview of low emission actions worldwide, to Zoran Kordic for help with sustainable development indicators, to Zoran Stanic for help in theoretical description of emission trading, to Ivan Rajsl and Drazen Jaksic for help in modeling with PLEXOS, to Andreas Tuerk for efforts in developing Model for defining economical parameters for power plants, and a special thanks to Cedo Brankovic for guidance and help with climate modeling and data interpretation. I am grateful to my supervisors for allowing me to shape this research according to my deepest interests and for their guidance in preparation of this thesis. Special thanks for support would go to my teams from UNDP and FER, and to Energy Exemplar team for PLEXOS issues. Finally, and above all, I would like to thank my special team – Zoa, Zagor and Ivana – for their patience and support. You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model irrelevant. Buckminster Fuller Summary Power system planning and development face new pressing challenges from climate change including the need to reduce its GHG emissions (climate change mitigation through different mechanisms such as emission trading, transition to low emission power system); and the need to adapt to climate change (climate change adaptation and vulnerability). Also, the development of energy sector should take the responsibility for the sustainable development – delivering positive and measurable impact on society, economy and environment. The main objective of the research was to develop and verify methodology and models for the assessment of emission trading and climate change impacts on sustainable power system development. Two models were designed to fit the proposed methodology. The first model is for the assessment of emission trading and fuel price impacts on long term marginal costs for different power plants. The
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