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Nuclear Radiation Health Effects

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Nuclear Radiation Health Effects (C) Safety In Engineering Ltd Radiation health effects and nuclear accident consequences – an overview Jim Thomson www.safetyinengineering.com 1 Radiation doses and radiological hazards (C) Safety In Engineering Ltd • Other issue - Doserate effects - uncertain Dose/risk• Normal cancer risk ~ 30% Additional Cancer Risk 5% Region where data are available, e.g. from Hiroshima-Nagasaki Gradient = 5%/Sv survivors Delayed health effects (cancers) – the linear dose -risk hypothesis Region of interest for societal risk in nuclear Effective dose (Sv) reactor accidents 1 Sv 100% Risk due to radiation sickness Acute effects (radiation sickness) Effective dose (Sv) 3 4 5 2 Radiation doses and radiological hazards (C) Safety In Engineering Ltd • The Emergency Reference Level (ERL) = 300mSv effective dose • Very small fractionsRadiological of a reactor core’s inventory wouldhazards yield a major radiological hazard to the public if released off-site, e.g. typically a release of about one-millionth of the I-131 inventory in a reactor would equate to the Emergency Reference Level (ERL) for someone at the site boundary. Isotopes Characteristics Iodine - 131 Volatile. Beta/gamma thyroid-seeker. Short half life (8d). Effects can be mitigated by swallowing iodate tablets. Caesium - 137 Volatile. Permeates whole body (mimics sodium). Actinides May be air-borne by fine (e.g. Plutonium, Curium, particles of U 3O8 in accidents. Americium isotopes) Alpha lung and bone seeker. Very long half lives. 3 Radiation doses and radiological hazards (C) Safety In Engineering Ltd 4 different terms used:Radiological hazards DOSE is measured in Grays (Gy). 1 Gy = 1 Joule of radiation energy absorbed per kg of organ tissue DOSE-EQUIVALENT is measured in Sieverts (Sv). 1 Sv = 1 Gy x Relative Biological Effectiveness (RBE) where RBE = 1 for γ and β 20 for α and neutrons, which are more intensely ionising. EFFECTIVE DOSE (Sv) is used to equate single organ dose-equivalents to a whole-body dose-equivalent. Various coefficients are used for different body organs. Effective dose is an analogue for individual risk. The risk of early death from 1 Sv (Effective) is judged by ICRP to be 5%. COLLECTIVE EFFECTIVE DOSE (man-Sv) is used to measure integrated population effective doses and hence societal risks. 4 Nuclear event/incident classification - the INES scale (C) Safety In Engineering Ltd INES scale • The International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) is used to grade the severity of nuclear accidents. •Events, incidents or accidents are graded 0 to 7 - analogous to the Richter scale for earthquakes - roughly logarithmic. •INES 0 - 3 are operational events or incidents without major consequences. • The Three Mile Island accident (1979 - PWR loss of coolant) would have been INES 5. • The Windscale fire (1957 - fire in air-cooled plutonium production reactor) would have been INES 5. • The Chernobyl accident (1986 - reactivity excursion and steam explosion) would have been INES 7. • Fukushima (2011 – earthquake/tsunami destroyed post-trip cooling) was rated INES 7 5 Consequences of reactor accidents – Fukushima update 1000000 (C) Safety In Engineering Ltd 100000 Chernobyl 1986 Collective Effective 10000 Dose 1000 Windscale 1957 Equivalent (CEDE) 100 (man-Sv) 10 TMI 1979 1 Fukushima 2011 (CEDE estimate TBA) 0.1 1000 1E+07 Source term (TBq I-131) Notes : 1. The above graph uses I -131 as a surrogate measure of radiological release. Other isotopes (notably Cs and Pu) will also have been significant. I-131 is used for simplicity as a common single measure of the magnitude of radioactive release. 2. CEDE estimates are taken from the relevant recognised ‘definitive’ reports (Kemeny, NRPB, IAEA). 3. Using the ICRP risk coefficient of 5E-02/man-Sv leads to deduced cancer mortality estimates from the accidents as follows: TMI c.1 Windscale c.100 Chernobyl c.10000 4. Airborne releases after the Fukushima accidents were estimated to be 1.5E+5 TBq I-131 by the Japanese Government in their June 2011 report. CEDE estimates are not yet available. Fukushima also led to significant water-borne releases. 5. If the empirical correlation for the first three major accidents (the straight line on the graph) holds true for Fukushima also, then the deduced long-term cancer mortalities for Fukushima are likely to be of the order of 1000. JimThomson 12-7-20116 www.safetyinengineering.com.
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