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The Use of Econometric Models in Developing Countries

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The Use of Econometric Models in Developing Countries This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Short-Term Macroeconomic Policy in Latin America Volume Author/Editor: Jere R. Behrman and James Hanson, eds. Volume Publisher: NBER Volume ISBN: 0-88410-489-3 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/behr79-1 Publication Date: 1979 Chapter Title: The Use of Econometric Models in Developing Countries Chapter Author: Jere Behrman, James A. Hanson Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c3882 Chapter pages in book: (p. 1 - 38) 1 F JEREBEHRMAN TheUse of and Econometric JAMES A. HANSON Modelsin Developing Countries* 1. INTRODUCTION National-income-determinationmodels and stabilization have not been the major concern of either empirical or theoretical macro- economic analysis in the developing economies. For example, a recentsurveyofthestateof theartregardingthe use of economywide models for less developed countries (LDCs), Blitzer, et a!. (1975), does not even include a chapter on macroeconomic income-determination models. Instead, the dominant frameworks for macroeconomic policy analysis and policy recommendations have been provided by Harrod- Domaraggregate-growth models,staticanddynamiclinear- programming models, and Chenery-Strout two-gap models.' These *This paper draws on Behrman, "Econometric Modeling of National Income Determination in Latin America, with Special Reference to the Chilean Ex- perience," presented at the Seminar on Use of Econometric Models in Latin America, sponsored by The Center of Economic and Demographic Studies of El Colegio de Mexico and the National Bureau of Economic Research, held in Mexico City on November 27-29, 1974. 1 2 Short Term Macroeconomic Policy in Latin America modelsgenerally include assumptions that: (i) the degree of capacity utilization, the rate of inflation, and the level of aggregate demand are unimportant considerations; (ii) that the financial constraints on government and central bank behavior (and, thus, the entire fiscal-monetary-income-internationalpolicy-inflationnexus)can be ignored; (iii) short-run flexibility is limited by low elasticities of substitution and short-run unresponsiveness to price; (iv) (at least for the programming models on which the greatest resources have been expended) the most interesting question is "what could happen if socially optimal readjustment of the economy occurred in response to policy changes," rather than "what would happen if the independent economic units which make up the economy followed their traditional behavioral patterns in response to such changes."2 The resulting models usually include only real phenomena and are characterized by supply bottlenecks resulting from foreign exchange or capital constraints. Such an emphasis reflects two widely held views: (1) Growth is a relatively more important economic objective (and stabilization less important) in the developing countries than in the developed coun- tries. (2) Income-determination models involving demand as well as supply are of limited value for developing economies.3 Some exceptions to the predominant view have long existed. The participants in the "structuralist-monetarist" controversy in Latin America, for example, accorded significant importance to inflation and stabilization policies in the development process.4 These exceptions have been increasing in number. The recognition by such authors as Schydlowsky (Chapter 9, this volume) and Behrmari (1973b) of considerable underutilized capacity, particularly in cyclical downturns, has increased interest in using national-income- determination models for stabilization purposes. Numerous partial equilibrium econometric estimates have been made that imply sig. nificantly nonzero elasticities of substitution and significant responses to prices in both capacity utilization and capacity creation decisions.5 Even the strongest advocates of supply-oriented capital and foreign- exchange-constrained analysis seem to be having second thoughts about the importance of short-run factors and stabilization problems. For example, throughout the above-cited survey by Blitzer, et al. (1975), there are frequent references to the need to consider short-run features (e.g., prices responses, capacity utilization determination, aggregate.demand.related policies). d Recently, because of this growing interest in stabilization and othershort-runproblems,alarge number of Keynesian-based national-income-determination models have been constructed and utilized for the developing economies.6 •4'l r TheUse of Econometric Models in Developing Countries 3 Abasic problem with the construction and use of these models for policymaking purposes in developing economies is the general lack of I accurate,up-to-date information (e.g., quarterly information on out- ts put and its components and sectoral or cyclical indicators that are • re available with a short time lag). This is a gap that at present forces policymakers to act on incorrect or dated information.7It also means that income-determination models of developing countries are a annual rather than quarterly. However, in the developed countries econometric models have been "most successful" in predicting out- put in the next quarter or six months; over a nine or twelve-month • period simple trends are often as good.8 Thus improvement in modeling may require an investment in improving the data base, an :2 investmentthat has the additional payoff of providing more accurate and up-to-date information to policymakers.9 e There remains the more philosophical question of our present abil- ity to forecast and affect in predictable ways the very short run with corresponding effects on the long run. However, political pressures a force governments to accept some advice and take some action in the -s very short run, often to the detriment of the long run. Therefore, it is probably best for economists to offer advice on the short run and on short-run—long-run tradeoffs while specifying the fragile nature of such advice. e • A second problem results from a simplistic transfer of aggregate demand models of developed economies with little or no adjustment for the special conditions in the developing countries. As a result, there are numerous shortcomings in such models' specifications, shortcomings that, while they may also exist in developed country d applications, are perhaps less important in that context. For ex- ample: (1) National income is determined by aggregate demand in a Keynesian fashion with no testing for the existence of possible con- straints due to the stocks of capital or labor, the supply of foreign exchange, or supply limitations imposed by quantitative restric- tions.'° (2) Underemployed or surplus labor and dualism in the labor market I are not explicitly incorporated. (3) Aggregation is so great that there is no possibility of capturing the impact of policies on relative prices, even though economists like Hansen (1973b) have maintained that policies in developing nations are primarily reflected in altered relative prices and Wachter (Chapter 8, this volume) has demonstrated, econometrically, the structuralist proposition that differing speeds of adjustment of relative prices (plus passive money) may result in inflation. The possible importance of intersectoral d flows, moreover, is lost by the high level of aggregation. On the other d hand, data problems are often cited as preventing disaggregation to any significant level, and there remains the question of whether dis- I 4 Short Term Macroeconomic Policy in Latin America aggregatedmodels provide more accurate projections of the aggregate variables, and to what extent such models divert attention from more global problems, such as the financial-monetary-international policy- income nexus. (4) Potential policy variables are often overlooked. For example, it is often assumed that an overvalued exchange rate willbe maintained through a continuance of exchange control ai although this is obviously a policy that is subject to change. (5) The significance of the foreign sector as a source of noncompetitive, intermediate imports, of capital goods, of government finance, and of household money and nonmonetary asset holdings is not well presented. (6) The importance—owing to fragmented and poorly functioning capital markets—of direct flows and retained earnings in the real investment process is not explored. (7) The degree of endog- eneity of fiscal, monetary, and international variables and their inter- relation in poorly functioning capital markets is ignored with the result that policy options are overstated. (8) There is little attempt to integrate the short-run income-determination model with long-run c developmentmodels. In particular, although plant and equipment decisions are well treated, no attempt is made to study human capital formation, despite the growing evidence for its significance in devel- opment. The role of social overhead capital, long emphasized by such leading development economists as Rosenstein-Rodan (1961), also ir is not explored.''(9) There is a tendency to ignore economywide disequilibrium.'2 ai At the same time as interest in and use of income-determination— stabilization, models for the LDCs has been growing, controversies d have emerged over the specification of such models in the developed economies. In the past decade, critics have claimed that deficiencies U in the theoretical structure, deficiencies that may be related to points sI 1 to 9 above, make any analysis of stabilization policies based on p1 such
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