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Home , Amanda Adkins (swimmer), Backstroke, Domenico Fioravanti, Dyana Calub, Geoff Huegill, Josh Watson

ANALYSIS OF 2000 OLYMPIC BUTTERFLY, & EVENTS By David Pyne and Megan Anderson Department of Physiology Australian Institute of Sport This article examines the split times and total race times of swimmers who competed in the finals of individual form stroke events (100 and 200m events in Butterfly, Breaststroke and Backstroke) at the Sydney 2000 . We have listed the swimmers in the order of final placing and shown all the 25 or 50m split times. We have also shown the differential time which is the difference in time from the faster first 50m to the second 50m split time, or the first and final 50m split time to the average 50m time. Correlations were calculated between each lap split and the final times for all eight swimmers in the final. Correlational analysis is a statistical means of characterising the strength of association between two variables. The correlation coefficient ‘r-value’ can range from -1.0 (strong negative correlation) through 0 (no correlation between variables) to +1.0 (strong positive correlation). By convention, r-values less than 0.60 generally indicate a low correlation or association, r-values between 0.60 and 0.80 indicate a moderate association, and r-values >0.80 indicate a strong association. By calculating the r-value for each lap, we can ascertain which laps were correlated more highly with the final times for the eight finalists. This information can be used to identify trends in different events and the strengths and weaknesses of individual swimmers. Preliminary observations indicate that the shorter faster 100m events are often decided in the 2nd 50m lap. In other words, these are ‘back end’ events where the finish lap is all- important and generally decides where the medals go. In the 200m events, the important laps appear to be the 2nd and 3rd laps. A long held view in elite coaching is that the second lap split sets up the speed or pace for the rest of race. We have also calculated the differentials to show where swimmers goes out too hard or fade coming back (or a combination of the two) resulting in a less than optimal race strategy and performance. MALE – 100m BUTTERFLY FINAL 2nd 50m Place Name 1st 50m 2nd 50m Final Time 1st 50m 1 Lars Frolander 24.33 27.67 52.00 3.34 2 24.10 28.08 52.18 3.98 3 24.28 27.94 52.22 3.66 4 24.69 27.75 52.44 3.06 5 Michael Mintenko 24.46 28.12 52.58 3.66 6 Takashi Yamamoto 24.67 27.91 52.58 3.24 7 24.65 28.48 53.13 3.83 8 Anatoli Poliakov 25.04 28.09 53.13 3.05 R-value: 0.81 0.72 R2: 0.65 0.52 P Value: 0.02 0.04 This was a highly anticipated event in with both Michael Klim and Geoff Huegill warm favourites for a medal. In an upset Lars Frolander from Sweden was the gold medallist in a time of 52.00. Michael Klim was second with a 52.18 and Geoff Huegill the bronze medallist in 52.22. Unfortunately for Huegill he had swum 51.97 in the semi-final, a time that would have won him the gold medal in the final. Klim had the fastest split at the 50 m with 24.10s. Already the three medallists had the three fastest splits. Frolander recorded the fastest 2nd 50 split time of 27.67, which was enough to beat both Klim (28.08) and Huegill (27.94). There was about a 3 second drop off for all swimmers from the first 50 m to the second 50 m split time. Klim had the largest drop off (3.98 sec) which may well have cost him the gold medal. The first 50 m split was slightly better correlated with final times (r=0.81) than the 2nd 50 m split. FEMALE – 100m BUTTERFLY FINAL 2nd 50m Place Name 1st 50m 2nd 50m Final Time 1st 50m 1 26.67 29.94 56.61 3.27 2 Martina Moravocova 27.17 30.80 57.97 3.63 3 27.06 31.14 58.20 4.08 4 27.26 31.23 58.49 3.97 5 26.79 31.94 58.73 5.15 6 27.99 31.14 59.13 3.15

7 Susie O'Neill 27.67 31.60 59.27 3.93 8 28.44 30.99 59.43 2.55 R-value: 0.77 0.75 R2: 0.60 0.57 P Value: 0.03 0.03 This was one of Inge De Bruijn’s dominant wins. Her winning margin of 1.36 seconds over 100m demonstrates the dominance of her performance. She was out in 26.67 being the only swimmer under 27.0 seconds. Her second 50m of 29.94 was the fastest of any swimmer and the only split under 30.0 seconds in the field. Her drop-off or differential split time of 3.27 seconds was the smallest of the first five swimmers. Jenny Thompson went out very fast (26.79) but faded in the second 50m (31.94) to record a 5.15 second drop off for 5th place. Petria Thomas was out 4th in 27.26 and held on for 31.23 to record 58.49 for 4th place. There were only modest correlations between first and second 50m split times and final times. Clearly De Bruijn’s performance was outstanding in this event. MALE – 200m BUTTERFLY FINAL 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 50m Last 50m Place Name Final Time Avg 50m 50m 50m 50m Avg Avg 1 26.21 29.54 29.52 30.08 1:55.35 28.8 -2.6 1.2 2 Denys 25.95 29.91 29.75 30.15 1:55.76 28.9 -3.0 1.2 Sylant'yev 3 Justin Norris 26.13 29.31 29.79 30.94 1:56.17 29.0 -2.9 1.9 4 Anatoli Poliakov 26.57 29.61 29.85 30.31 1:56.34 29.1 -2.5 1.2 5 26.76 29.68 30.19 29.87 1:56.50 29.1 -2.4 0.7 6 26.28 29.82 30.36 30.56 1:57.02 29.3 -3.0 1.3 7 25.53 29.21 30.95 32.28 1:57.97 29.5 -4.0 2.8 8 26.18 30.32 30.11 31.78 1:58.39 29.6 -3.4 2.2 r-value -0.31 0.28 0.77 0.84 R2: 0.10 0.08 0.59 0.70 P Value: 0.46 0.50 0.03 0.01 The correlations between split times and final times are most revealing in this event. There was a small negative correlation (r=-0.31) for the first 50m split and a small positive correlation (r=0.28) for the second 50m split. The race was decided in the third and final 50m splits. There was a strong r=0.77 correlation for the 3rd 50m split with the first four placegetters splitting under 30.0 and the last four placegetters all swimming slower than 30.0. In the final 50m, the times ranged from 29.87 to 32.28 seconds with the gold medallist Tom Malchow having the second fastest split at 30.08. In this race, the final lap had the highest correlation with the final times. FEMALE – 200m BUTTERFLY FINAL Last 1st 50m Place Name 1st 50m 2nd 50m 3rd 50m 4th 50m Final Time Avg 50m Avg Avg 1 28.38 31.53 32.53 33.44 2:05.88 31.5 -3.1 2.0 2 Susie O'Neill 28.75 31.93 32.36 33.54 2:06.58 31.6 -2.9 1.9 3 Petria Thomas 28.35 31.99 33.04 33.74 2:07.12 31.8 -3.4 2.0 Mette 29.10 32.41 33.09 33.64 2:08.24 32.1 -3.0 1.6 4 Jacobsen 5 O. Jedrzejczak 28.61 32.18 33.77 33.92 2:08.48 32.1 -3.5 1.8 Kaitlin 29.56 32.70 33.16 33.39 2:08.81 32.2 -2.6 1.2 6 Sandeno Yuko 29.46 32.80 33.17 34.23 2:09.66 32.4 -3.0 1.8 7 Nakanishi 8 Maki Mita 29.59 33.38 33.73 34.02 2:10.72 32.7 -3.1 1.3 r-value: 0.84 0.97 0.80 0.68 R2: 0.71 0.94 0.65 0.47 P Value: 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.06 This was one of the biggest upsets at the Olympics. The gold medal favourite, Susie O’Neill, had been unbeaten in this event since 1994. In contrast to the Men’s 200m Butterfly final, this race was largely decided in the first and second laps. The first lap correlated r=0.84 and the second lap r=0.97 to the final times. Misty Hyman, the eventual winner, had the fastest split in 2nd and 4th 50m laps, and was only 0.17 slower than O’Neill in the 3rd 50m. MALE – 100m BACKSTROKE FINAL

2nd 50m Place Name 1st 50m 2nd 50m Final Time 1st 50m 1 25.99 27.73 53.72 1.74 2 Matthew Welsh 26.08 27.99 54.07 1.91 3 26.64 28.18 54.82 1.54 4 26.39 28.62 55.01 2.23 5 Bartosz Kizierowski 26.45 28.59 55.04 2.14 6 26.43 28.71 55.14 2.28 7 Steffan Driesen 26.98 28.29 55.27 1.31 8 Eithan Urbach 26.88 28.86 55.74 1.98 r-value 0.87 0.90 R2: 0.76 0.81 P Value: 0.01 0.00 This race saw the medallists being the faster swimmers right through the race with strong correlation between both 1st and 2nd 50m split times and final times. The gold medallist Lenny Krayzelburg was the only swimmer out in under 26 seconds (25.99) and was the fastest back in the 2nd 50m in 27.73 seconds to give a final time of 53.72 seconds. was second fastest out in 26.08 and also back in under 28 seconds (27.99). FEMALE – 100m BACKSTROKE FINAL 2nd 50m Place Name 1st 50m 2nd 50m Final Time 1st 50m 1 Diana Mocanu 29.80 30.41 60.21 0.61 2 Mai Nakamura 29.17 31.38 60.55 2.21 3 Nina Nhivanevekaya 29.86 31.03 60.89 1.17 4 Roxana Maracineanu 30.08 31.02 61.10 0.94 5 29.83 31.31 61.14 1.48 6 BJ Bedford 29.76 31.71 61.47 1.95 7 30.00 31.61 61.61 1.61 8 Louise Ornstedt 30.41 31.61 62.02 1.20 r-value 0.68 0.80 R2: 0.46 0.64 P Value: 0.06 0.02 Another example where the second half of the race correlated more highly with the final times than the first half. In the 1st 50m, half of the swimmers (four out eight) split under 30.0 seconds. In the 2nd 50m, the gold medallist Diana Mocanu swam the fastest homeward leg of 30.41, the only swimmer under 31.0 seconds. Mocanu also had the smallest differential with only a 0.61 second drop off in the second 50m (29.80-30.41). In contrast Mai Nakamura the silver medallist had 2.21 second drop off (29.17-31.38). MALE – 200m BACKSTROKE FINAL 1st 50m Last 50m Place Name 1st 50m 2nd 50m 3rd 50m 4th 50m Final Time Avg Avg Avg 1 Lenny 27.37 29.22 29.46 30.71 1:56.76 29.2 -1.8 1.5 Krayzelburg 2 Aaron 27.60 29.32 30.11 30.32 1:57.35 29.3 -1.7 1.0 Peirsol 3 Matthew 27.42 29.57 30.21 30.39 1:57.59 29.4 -2.0 1.0 Welsh 4 Orn 27.87 29.82 30.56 30.75 1:59.00 29.8 -1.9 1.0 Arnarson 5 Emanuele 28.42 29.99 30.33 30.27 1:59.01 29.8 -1.3 0.5 Merisi 6 Razvan 27.49 30.02 30.86 30.68 1:59.05 29.8 -2.3 0.9 Florea 7 Rogerio 28.24 30.16 30.62 30.25 1:59.27 29.8 -1.6 0.4 Romero 8 Gordan 27.89 29.93 30.87 30.69 1:59.38 29.8 -2.0 0.8 Kozulj R-value 0.69 0.96 0.91 0.02 R2: 0.48 0.92 0.82 0.00

P Value: 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.97 The 200m Men’s Backstroke final fitted the trend where middle-distance races are decided in the 2nd and 3rd laps. In this race, the gold medallist Lenny Krayzelburg had the fastest split in both the 2nd (29.22) and 3rd (29.46) laps. He was the only swimmer in the race to swim under 30.0 seconds for the 3rd 50. Somewhat surprisingly there was no correlation at all between the final 50m splits times and final times (r=0.02). The whole field came home between 30.25 and 30.71 seconds, with Krayzelburg’s split of 30.71 the second slowest of the field. Clearly this race was won in the 2nd and 3rd laps. FEMALE – 200m BACKSTROKE FINAL 1st Last 2nd Final Place Name 1st 50m 3rd 50m 4th 50m Avg 50m 50m 50m Time Avg Avg 1 Diana Mocanu 31.56 32.11 32.54 31.95 2:08.16 32.0 -0.5 -0.1 2 Roxana 30.88 32.61 33.19 33.57 2:10.25 32.6 -1.7 1.0 Maracineanu 3 Miki Nakao 31.01 32.90 33.51 33.63 2:11.05 32.8 -1.8 0.9 4 31.17 32.93 33.45 33.66 2:11.21 32.8 -1.6 0.9 5 31.51 33.23 33.58 34.03 2:12.35 33.1 -1.6 0.9 6 Nina 31.37 33.26 33.92 34.20 2:12.75 33.2 -1.8 1.0 Zhivanevskaya 7 Antje Buschshulte 31.37 33.54 34.11 34.29 2:13.31 33.3 -2.0 1.0 8 Kelly Stefanyshyn 31.73 33.90 34.69 34.25 2:14.57 33.6 -1.9 0.6 R-value 0.37 1.00 0.98 0.91 R2: 0.14 0.99 0.97 0.83 P Value: 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 This race was quite similar to the Men’s 200 Backstroke final. In the first lap, the field was evenly spread with splits 30.88 to 31.73 seconds. In the second lap, there was almost a perfect correlation between split time and final time. The gold medallist, Diana Mocanu had the fastest split of 32.11, the silver medallist had the second fastest split of 32.61 and the bronze medallist had the 3rd fastest split of 32.90, right down to the eighth placegetter who had the slowest split of 33.90. This trend continued in the 3rd and 4th laps with Mocanu having the fastest splits of 32.54 and 31.95 respectively. She was the only swimmer to break 33 and 32 seconds in these respective laps. MALE – 100m BREASTSTROKE FINAL 2nd 50m Place Name 1st 50m 2nd 50m Final Time 1st 50m 1 Domenico Fioravanti 28.91 31.55 60.46 2.64 2 28.60 32.13 60.73 3.53 3 Roman Sloudnov 29.23 31.68 60.91 2.45 4 28.92 32.42 61.34 3.50 5 Daniel Malek 28.91 32.59 61.50 3.68 6 Morgan Knabe 28.88 32.70 61.58 3.82 7 Brett Petersen 28.89 32.74 61.63 3.85 8 Remo Luetolf 28.64 33.24 61.88 4.60 R-value -0.20 0.94 R2: 0.04 0.89 P Value: 0.64 0.00 This race also fits the trend for the sprint events (50 and 100 m freestyle and form stroke events). There was a small negative correlation (r=-0.20) between 1st 50m split time and final times. All swimmers were out between 28.64 and 29.23. Interestingly the gold and bronze medallists were the two slowest swimmers in the 1st 50m lap. The race clearly decided in the 2nd 50m with a strong r=0.94 correlation. The gold medallist Domenico Fioravanti was the fastest home in 31.55, with the bronze medallist the second fastest in 31.68. Fioravanti had the smallest differential between splits of 2.64 seconds (28.91-31.55: 60.46). In contrast the 4-8th placegetters all dropped off by more than 3.5 seconds with the 8th placegetter having the worst differential of 4.60 seconds (28.64-33.24: 61.88) FEMALE – 100m BREASTSTROKE FINAL 2nd 50m Place Name 1st 50m 2nd 50m Final Time 1st 50m 1 Megan Quann 31.65 35.40 67.05 3.75 2 Liesel Jones 32.14 35.35 67.49 3.21 3 Penny Heyns 31.10 36.45 67.55 5.35

4 31.56 36.29 67.85 4.73 5 Agnes Kovacs 31.72 36.37 68.09 4.65 6 32.42 35.95 68.37 3.53 7 32.56 36.53 69.09 3.97 8 33.17 36.69 69.86 3.52 R-value 0.84 0.71 R2: 0.71 0.51 P Value: 0.01 0.05 The Women’s 100m Breaststroke was a different race to the Men’s. The field was widely spread after the first 50m with split times ranging from 31.10 to 33.17. The correlation of r=0.84 indicates the medallists were generally out faster than the non-medallists. The second 50m was a little more even with most swimmers coming back in 35.40 to 36.69 seconds. The gold and silver medallists were back in 35.40 and 35.35, which were the two fastest homeward legs. Penny Heyns had the fastest 1st 50m split of 31.10 but faded in the second lap (36.45) to record the largest differential of 5.35 seconds for any swimmer in the final. MALE – 200m BREASTSTROKE FINAL Last 1st 50m Place Name 1st 50m 2nd 50m 3rd 50m 4th 50m Final Time Avg 50m Avg Avg 1 Domen-ico 30.50 33.65 33.20 33.52 2:10.87 32.7 -2.2 0.8 Fioravanti 2 Terence Parkin 30.84 33.67 34.18 33.81 2:12.50 33.1 -2.3 0.7 3 Davide 30.85 33.84 34.04 34.00 2:12.73 33.2 -2.3 0.8 Rummolo 4 30.57 34.00 34.15 34.16 2:12.88 33.2 -2.7 0.9 5 Daniel Malek 30.82 34.25 34.77 33.36 2:13.20 33.3 -2.5 0.1 6 30.57 34.09 34.14 34.47 2:13.27 33.3 -2.7 1.2 7 Johann 30.45 34.00 34.15 34.71 2:13.31 33.3 -2.9 1.4 Bernard 8 30.64 33.58 34.62 35.16 2:14.00 33.5 -2.9 1.7 R-value 0.12 0.30 0.88 0.68 R2: 0.02 0.09 0.78 0.46 P Value: 0.77 0.46 0.00 0.06 Another middle-distance (200m) race that was decided in either the 2nd or 3rd lap. There was essentially no correlation (r=0.12) between the 1st split time and final times. All swimmers were out in 30.4-30.9 seconds. The race was largely decided in the 3rd 50m lap where the gold medallist Domenico Fioravanti split 33.20 which was the fastest and only split under 34.0. Fioravanti won easily in 2:10.87 but the rest of the field was closely bunched between 2:12.50 and 2:13.31 for 2nd–7th placegetters. FEMALE – 200m BREASTSTROKE FINAL Last 1st 50m Place Name 1st 50m 2nd 50m 3rd 50m 4th 50m Final Time Avg 50m Avg Avg 1 Agnes Kovacs 33.31 37.33 37.14 36.57 2:24.35 36.1 -2.8 0.5 2 33.42 36.79 36.92 37.43 2:24.56 36.1 -2.7 1.3 3 33.66 36.89 37.26 37.54 2:25.35 36.3 -2.7 1.2 4 Hui Qi 33.46 37.14 37.01 37.75 2:25.36 36.3 -2.9 1.4 5 Olga Bakaldina 33.68 37.36 36.80 37.63 2:25.47 36.4 -2.7 1.3 6 Sarah Poewe 32.97 37.56 37.55 37.64 2:25.72 36.4 -3.5 1.2 7 Masami 33.99 37.67 37.73 37.59 2:26.98 36.7 -2.8 0.8 Tanaka 8 Xuejuan Luo 33.92 37.83 37.86 37.72 2:27.33 36.8 -2.9 0.9 R-value 0.65 0.77 0.82 0.60 R2: 0.42 0.60 0.67 0.36 P Value: 0.08 0.02 0.01 0.12 This was a very close and well-contested race with the range of times from 1st to 6th was 1.37 seconds (2:24.35 to 2:25.72). The gold medallist Agnes Kovacs had the 2nd, 4th, 4th and fastest splits in each of the successive laps. The 3rd lap correlated most highly with final times at r=0.82. Again following the trend for other 200m events, the 2nd and 3rd laps correlated most highly with final times. The swimmers

were generally out in around 33 seconds with subsequent laps around three seconds slower at 36-37 seconds per 50m.