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Monthly Market Outlook August 2020

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Monthly Market Outlook August 2020 Monthly Market Outlook August 2020 1 Content Page Numbers Global Scenario 4 Economy 13 Markets 30 Time To Be Neutral Weight to Equities ? 47 Value Addition By Our Partners 51 Equity Investment Opportunity 59 Should We Invest In Gold ? 64 Our Recent Calls In The Past 70 Debt Market Outlook - August 2020 71 Debt Investment Opportunity 85 Annexure 95 Disclaimer 103 2 Medical Crisis Financial Crisis Real Life Crisis 3 3 Global Scenario 4 5 5 A Combination Of Easy Monetary And Easy Fiscal Policy Is Opening The Floodgates For Easy Money In The Global Economy Major countries have announced massive fiscal stimulus to the tune of $7.4tn (~9% of GDP) in response to the COVID-19 Central Banks globally reacted promptly by announcing aggressive cut in the policy rates to support growth Source: IMF, Spark Capital Research 6 Giant Pool Of Low-yielding Debt Pushes Investors Into Risker Assets 86% of debt instruments yield less than 2% & 60% of debt instrument yield less than 1% Source: ICE data services 7 Global Markets Have Fully Recovered Their Losses Global Bonds Have Fully Recovered Their Losses Global Equities Regained The Losses Global bonds value – Lost 5tn$ in Mar 20 & recovered entirely Source: Bloomberg, Past Performance may or may not sustain in the future 8 Polarization Is Visible Across The World The five largest stocks have returned 35% YTD; the other 495 stocks have declined y 5% Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs , Past Performance may or may not sustain in the future 9 US Bankruptcy Filings Soaring - US Business And Consumer Confidence Is Down Source: Bloomberg 10 Chinese Activity Level ~80%+ Of Pre-Covid Level Sub indices ( Jan 1 2020 = 100) 11 Source: WIND; EntGroup, FT Research China’s Galloping Debt and Growth With Debt Source: IMF (dollar GDP) and BIS Data (credit to the non-financial sector) 12 Economy 13 India: Business Resumption Appears Stagnating Source: Google, Apple, CMIE, Bloomberg and Nomura Global Economics 14 FY21 GDP Could Decline By 5 % + Sector impact - Revenue Significantly Impacted but Costs continue Low Medium High • Auto Ancillaries • Agricultural Produce • Aviation • Consumer Durables • Telecom • Hotels & Tourism • Housing Finance Companies • FMCG • Gems & Jewellery • Automobile OEMs • Food Processing • Multiplexes • Logistics • Online Education • Microfinance Institution • Power • Seeds & Fertilisers • Textiles ( Cotton Spinning) • Electronics • Sugar • Ports & Seafood • Banks • MSME • Engineering • News Paper • Mining • Advertising • Real Estate ( Residential) • Retailing • Financial Services • Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals Leveraged companies will find it difficult to payback Debt Please click here for our Sectoral Update Report – June 2020 15 Balance Sheet Impairment Across The Economy Households, Corporates, Lenders and Governments Equally Vulnerable Source: RBI , India Ratings 16 Tepid Rate Of Capital Formulation Remains Concerning Sustained pressure on capacity utilization since FY14 Capacity utilization ratio: Top 500 Debt – Heavy private sector corporates Source: Ace Equity, India Ratings 17 30% Of Companies In India Make RoCE At Least 2% Higher Than Cost Of Debt , In FY10, This Number Was Close To 90% Declining spread between RoCE and Cost of Debt Source: Ace Equity, India Ratings 18 Fund-Raising Will Be Hurt 19 Recovery Path : Prolonged & U Shaped Source: RBI , India Ratings 20 We Can Improve Ease Of Doing Business On Ground To Unleash Our Potential India’s Compliance Universe 21 Source: Teamlease Bharat Leads Recovery And Outperforms India Daily Avg. Tractor Registration has jumped sharply on Jul-20 industry fertilizer volume growth of 23% YoY Jul’20 (stood at 65% higher vs. the FY20 level) Source: Spark Capital Research 22 Government Action Cushioning Impact PM Kisan disbursements front-loaded Disbursement growth up by 56% FYTD Source: Credit Suisse estimates , PM Kisan , NREGA 23 Monsoon Season Rainfall At Normal Levels South-West Monsoon in-line with LPA*; Southern Crop sowing trending above normal with belt above normal ~85% planting done *LPA – Long period average Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Jefferies Source: Govt data, Spark Capital Research 24 Urban India Is Trying To Reach Normalcy Despite Constraints Power consumption has reached ~100% of the last year E-WAY bill generations in Jul’20 has reached 89% of Jul'19 demand from 70% in Apr’20 level Daily Avg. Car Registration has jumped 17.7% m/m; It Mobility trend for workplaces is also improving… has reached ~69% of FY20 levels Source: Spark Capital Research 25 Recent Trend In Super-high-frequency Indicators Summary of high-frequency indicators vs. pre-COVID levels Source: * vs Jan-Feb levels. ** Inverted. Govt. of India, CMIE, Jefferies 26 Cash Conversion Cycle Improves Largely For Many Sectors Led By Reduction In Both Inventory Days And Debtor Days In FY20 V/S FY19 Source: CGA, Spark Capital Research 27 GST Collections Have Marginally Fallen To Rs. 874bn In Jul’20 From Rs. 909bn In Jul’20 Source: CGA, Spark Capital Research 28 America And India Are Mirror Images Of Each Other % Change compared Country Comparison Right Direction/Wrong Track with previous month Source: ‘Global Advisor 29 Markets 30 Broad Market(BSE500) Performance: Even Weaker Than Global Financial Crisis (GFC) Proportion of companies reporting YoY revenue Jump in proportion of companies seeing Proportion of companies reporting YoY PAT decline higher than compared to GFC EBITDA margin contraction but not at peak yet decline also far higher than compared to GFC % companies reporting negative revenue growth % companies reporting margin contraction % companies reporting negative PAT growth Source: Capitaline, UBS Q4FY20 impacted by 15 days of Lockdown, Q1FY21 to see larger impact 31 In India , COVID Impact In-line With 2008 Crisis: May Become Severe And Prolonged 30 Nifty rebased to 100 for 1st Feb 2020, 8th Nov 2016 and 12th Sep 2008 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 32 6m 9m 12m m Nifty - Global crisis - 2008 Nifty - Demanitisation - 2016 Nifty - Covid 19 - 2020 Bank Nifty - 2020 Past Performance may or may not sustain in the future 32 Source: capital line ,Internal analysis EPS Estimates Have Seen Sharp Cuts In The Past Few Months Nifty-50 Index EPS estimates trend, March fiscal year-ends, 2018E-22E (Rs) 850 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 800 794 750 769 700 678 650 616 600 550 500 480 462 450 449 454 400 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19 Aug-17 Aug-16 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20 Source: Kotak Institutional Equities estimates 33 What Moves The Markets Fear Hope • Increase in Covid infections / Deaths • Decrease in Covid infections / Deaths • 2nd Wave Infection • Medical Breakthrough • Delayed resumption of economic • Normalcy of economic activity activities • Fiscal Stimulus Execution • Lockdown Extension • Monetary Stimulus Execution Potential triggers of market Market Reaction volatality Valuation Levels Sentiment US-China Tensions Policy Responses Liquidity US Politics Consumption Measures to Contain Virus Credit Risk Trade and Spply Chain ? Success at Containing Virus Future Earnings COVID-19 Pandemic Monetary Policy Expectation Oil Shock Valuation Levels Black Swan ? Fiscal Policy 34 Source: Standard Chartered, KMAMC interpretations Nifty @ ~11070 Levels market is discounting Lower Gold Imports, Oil Prices and Trade Deficit with China Rebound In Economic Activities Smooth Execution of Economic Package and Reforms - MSME - NBFC - FDI - Agriculture Monetary Stimulus - Liquidity from Banks to Borrowers - Reduced Borrowing cost for the Borrowers Potential higher FPI Flows Medical Solution - Drugs - Vaccine 35 This Crisis Requires Medical Solution Top 12 contenders in various stages of development * Vaccine approved for limited use 36 Source: WHO, Milken Institute , India Today India’s Trade Deficit With China Reducing From The FY18 Highs 37 Source: CEIC, MOFSL India’s Imports Have Significantly Gone Down Non-commodity Imports, Jan-May/Jun, % YoY Source: Haver, IIF 38 Record Capital Raise & Absorption For Good Companies Stocks/ Sectors referred should not be construed as an investment advice or a recommendation. The Fund may or may not have any present or future positions in said stocks/ sectors. Past Performance is not a guarantee for future return. Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. Please consult your financial advisor or other professionals before 39 acting on any information in this communication. Third Consecutive Month Of FII Inflows In Jul’20 Source: MOFSL 40 FPI Flows Post MSCI And FTSE Russel Index Rejig • MSCI Defers June FOL implementation • FTSE has announced that it will conduct the implementation of foreign limit increases in 4 tranches starting from September 2020 (then Dec-21, Mar-21, June-21) Possible flows impact over the course of 12 months ( US$ bn) MSCI - net 3.6 FTSE - net 2.8 Total - net 6.4 MSCI - gross 5.6 FTSE - gross 3.26 Total - gross 8.86 MSCI + FTSE India Potential Passive Inflow of US$6.4 bn Source: Morgan Stanley 41 Market Performance 42 Market Snapshot Dec-07 May-13 July-20 Dec-07 May-13 July-20 Macro Indicators 10-Year Govt Bond Yield Capacity Utilisation (Dec 19) 91.7% 71.6% (Jun-13) 68.6% India 7.8% 7.2% 5.8% Credit Growth (as on Jun 20) 22.0% 14.4% 6.0% USA 4.0% 2.1% 0.5% ROE Nifty 50 (July 20) 25.5% 17.1% (Mar-13) 14.1% Japan 1.5% 0.9% 0.0% Net FII Flows (12M - Rs Cr – July 20) 71,952 125,110 23,826 Europe 4.3% 1.5% -0.5% IIP – May 20 13.5% 1.0% -34.7% China 4.5% 3.4% 3.0% GDP Growth (Jan – Mar 20) 9.6% 6.4% 3.1% Dec-07
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