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Journal of Alpine Research | Revue De Géographie Alpine Journal of Alpine Research | Revue de géographie alpine 98-4 | 2010 La montagne, laboratoire du changement climatique Mountains, the climate change laboratory Édition électronique URL : http://journals.openedition.org/rga/1269 DOI : 10.4000/rga.1269 ISSN : 1760-7426 Éditeur : Association pour la diffusion de la recherche alpine, UGA Éditions/Université Grenoble Alpes Référence électronique Journal of Alpine Research | Revue de géographie alpine, 98-4 | 2010, « La montagne, laboratoire du changement climatique » [En ligne], mis en ligne le 20 décembre 2010, consulté le 02 octobre 2020. URL : http://journals.openedition.org/rga/1269 ; DOI : https://doi.org/10.4000/rga.1269 Ce document a été généré automatiquement le 2 octobre 2020. La Revue de Géographie Alpine est mise à disposition selon les termes de la licence Creative Commons Attribution - Pas d'Utilisation Commerciale - Pas de Modification 4.0 International. 1 La montagne est un territoire d’exception, réservoir de multiples ressources (bois, minerais, eau, énergie, neige, etc.), mais qui doit composer avec des handicaps naturels (pente, altitude et climat). Elle s’est ainsi construite au fil de son histoire une place spécifique au sein de l’Aménagement du territoire (RTM, Plan neige, loi « Montagne »). La question du changement climatique s’ajoute aujourd'hui aux réflexions et aux pratiques d’aménagement. Il faut alors s’interroger sur les implications de la rencontre entre un objet aux spécificités marquées et un phénomène générique, dont la représentation découle d’une appréhension globale du climat (réchauffement planétaire ou global warming) à travers des modèles prospectifs sans finesses dans leurs projections locales. L’objectif de ce numéro thématique de la RGA est d’explorer cette rencontre selon quatre domaines particuliers : écosystèmes de montagne, agropastoralisme, forêt et sylviculture, risques – naturels et économiques. Il s’agit dans ce cadre de tester l’hypothèse selon laquelle, dans un contexte marqué par le spectre du changement climatique, le droit à l’expérimentation défendu par les élus montagnards prend une dimension nouvelle, faisant de la montagne un laboratoire de l’Aménagement du territoire. Mountain areas are exceptional environments, endowed with a wide variety of natural resources (wood, minerals, water, energy, snow, etc.), but at the same time having to deal with a number of natural handicaps (slope, altitude and climate). Over the years, mountain areas have thus come to occupy a special place in spatial planning and development (RTM (Mountain Terrain Restoration programme), Plan neige (winter resort development programme), Loi Montagne (Mountain Act)). A further concern today for planners and decision-makers is the question of climate change. It is therefore important to examine the implications of the interaction between an object, the mountain area, with its distinctive characteristics and a generic phenomenon, the representation of which stems from a global understanding of climate (global warming) obtained through general prospective models, models that need to be more refined in their projections at the local level. The objective of this special issue of the RGA is to explore this interaction in terms of four special areas: mountain ecosystems, agropastoralism, forests and forestry, and natural and economic risks. This framework provides the opportunity to test the hypothesis that in a context haunted by the spectre of climate change, the right to experimentation defended by the elected representatives of mountain areas takes on a new dimension, making mountain areas a laboratory for spatial planning. Journal of Alpine Research | Revue de géographie alpine, 98-4 | 2010 2 SOMMAIRE Préface La montagne, laboratoire du changement climatique Hugues François, Émeline Hatt et Gwladys Mathieu Preface Mountains, the climate change laboratory Hugues François, Émeline Hatt et Gwladys Mathieu Impact des changements climatiques sur les écosystèmes alpins : comment les mettre en évidence et les prévoir ? Nigel G. Yoccoz, Anne Delestrade et Anne Loison Impact of climatic change on alpine ecosystems: inference and prediction Nigel G. Yoccoz, Anne Delestrade et Anne Loison Attitudes des éleveurs et sensibilité des systèmes d'élevage face aux sécheresses dans les Alpes françaises Baptiste Nettier, Laurent Dobremez, Jean-Luc Coussy et Thomas Romagny Attitudes of livestock farmers and sensitivity of livestock farming systems to drought conditions in the French Alps Baptiste Nettier, Laurent Dobremez, Jean-Luc Coussy et Thomas Romagny Quel futur pour les services écosystémiques de la forêt alpine dans un contexte de changement climatique ? Benoît Courbaud, Georges Kunstler, Xavier Morin et Thomas Cordonnier What is the future of the ecosystem services of the Alpine forest against a backdrop of climate change? Benoît Courbaud, Georges Kunstler, Xavier Morin et Thomas Cordonnier Changement climatique et développement des territoires de montagne : quelles connaissances pour quelles pistes d’action ? Didier Richard, Emmanuelle George-Marcelpoil et Vincent Boudières Climate change and the development of mountain areas: what do we need to know and for what types of action? Didier Richard, Emmanuelle George-Marcelpoil et Vincent Boudières Journal of Alpine Research | Revue de géographie alpine, 98-4 | 2010 3 Préface La montagne, laboratoire du changement climatique Hugues François, Émeline Hatt et Gwladys Mathieu 1 Le changement climatique revêt en ce début de millénaire les habits de « mal du siècle » prédisant, à l’horizon 2100, un véritable cataclysme pour les sociétés humaines et leur organisation. Par delà le catastrophisme, les bouleversements induits par l’évolution du climat sur nos pratiques de gestion des territoires sont une réalité. Plus que de céder aux sirènes d’un discours alarmiste, il devient indispensable de se doter d’une meilleure connaissance des mécanismes de ces changements et d’en évaluer l’ampleur. En effet, à l’heure actuelle, aussi probables que soient les modèles prospectifs mobilisés par les experts, leur réalisation demeure chargée d’incertitudes liées à la capacité d’adaptation des êtres vivants, des sociétés et, plus globalement, aux effets de rétroaction, difficiles à envisager de manière exhaustive. 2 L’incertitude est une question centrale qui s’affirme par-dessus toutes les autres : comment aujourd’hui prendre des décisions et procéder aux nécessaires arbitrages politiques dans un monde en changement permanent, où les références du passé ne valent plus pour l’avenir ? Plus que la nature des actions adaptatives, ce sont donc les moyens aidant à la prise de décision qui doivent faire l’objet de toutes nos attentions. A ce titre, les modalités locales de réalisation du changement global constituent une réelle source d’interrogations, d’autant que les projections régionales, les plus importantes pour l’adaptation humaine, restent souvent très approximatives. Le cas des zones de montagne, fortes de leurs spécificités naturelles et de leur diversité, présente une situation particulièrement complexe. Patchwork d’écosystèmes et de conditions climatiques parfois extrêmes, la montagne constitue à ce titre un territoire d’exception potentiellement porteur d’enseignements sur les effets du changement climatique. Le présent numéro de la RGA, au-delà des questions d’atténuation, traite plus spécifiquement des problématiques relatives à l’impact du changement climatique et aux réponses adaptatives qui émergent. 3 La montagne revendique son rôle de laboratoire de l’Aménagement du territoire, et ses élus, organisés au sein de l’Association Nationale des Elus de la Montagne, ont engagé une réflexion originale sur cette question (ANEM, 2007). De manière plus circonstanciée, à l’issue d’une saison hivernale difficile pour les sports d’hiver, les élus Journal of Alpine Research | Revue de géographie alpine, 98-4 | 2010 4 maires de stations de montagne (réunis au sein de leur association nationale, l’ANMSM) ont également dévoilé au grand public leur initiative d’adaptation de la méthode du Bilan CarboneTM au cas des stations de sports d’hiver. C’est dans le secteur du tourisme que les impacts du changement climatique sont à la fois les plus visibles et les plus discutés (Bürki et al., 2003; Agrawala, 2007; Luthe et al., 2008). Les plus visibles, car le rapport de causalité est immédiat, mais également parce que chacun d’entre nous y est sensibilisé au regard de la médiatisation des hivers sans neige depuis 1989/90 et du risque qu’ils font peser sur les stations de sports d’hiver (Marcelpoil et François, 2010). En ce sens, le changement climatique constitue un facteur majeur de mutation de l’économie touristique hivernale (Bourdeau, 2007). 4 Les plus discutés également, car les stations de sports d’hiver furent imaginées et conçues comme un moyen d’aménagement du territoire soutenu par les pouvoirs publics et, de fait, objet politique. Dans ce contexte, le changement climatique est instrumentalisé par des débats parfois caricaturaux : il constitue un argument nouveau pour les détracteurs de ce mode de développement local et une chimère pour les acteurs économiques dépendants de l’attractivité des stations. Pour ces raisons, la question du tourisme confronté au changement climatique trouve difficilement sa place dans un numéro transversal traitant des effets de l’évolution du climat en montagne. Elle appelle une réflexion propre qui ne cristallise pas l’une ou l’autre des positions au risque d’oublier la diversité des formes de développement
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