Modélisation Des Signatures Radar Des Tourbillons De Sillage Par Temps De Pluie

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Modélisation Des Signatures Radar Des Tourbillons De Sillage Par Temps De Pluie 5)µ4& &OWVFEFMPCUFOUJPOEV %0$503"5%&-6/*7&34*5²%&506-064& %ÏMJWSÏQBS Institut Supérieur de l’Aéronautique et de l’Espace (ISAE) 1SÏTFOUÏFFUTPVUFOVFQBS Zhongxun LIU le lundi 27 mai 2013 5JUSF Modélisation des signatures radar des tourbillons de sillage par temps de pluie ²DPMF EPDUPSBMF et discipline ou spécialité ED AA : Dynamique des fluides & Signal, image, acoustique et optimisation 6OJUÏEFSFDIFSDIF Équipe d'accueil ISAE-ONERA SCANR %JSFDUFVS T EFʾÒTF M. François VINCENT (directeur de thèse) M. Nicolas JEANNIN (co-directeur de thèse) Jury : François VINCENT, Enseignant-Chercheur ISAE - Directeur de thèse Nicolas JEANNIN, Ingénieur ONERA - Co-directeur de thèse Danielle VANHOENACKER-JANVIER, Professeur UC Louvain - Rapporteur François LE CHEVALIER, Professeur TU Delft - Rapporteur Frédéric BARBARESCO, Ingénieur Thalès Air Systems - Examinateur Vincent BRION, Ingénieur ONERA - Examinateur Abstract In recent years, wake vortex monitoring in real time has emerged as one of the key challenges in air traffic control at landing or taking-off. In clear air, several experimental tests have demonstrated that Lidar is an effective sensor for wake vortex monitoring. In rainy weather, Lidar becomes blind and Radar is a candidate sensor to detect the motion of raindrops in wake vortices. Thus, investigation on radar monitoring of wake vortices in rainy weather is of both scientific and practical interests. This topic has been tackled through three successive steps during this thesis. Firstly, the motion of raindrops in wake vortices has been modeled and simulated. The equation of the motion has been derived and the methodology to compute the raindrops' trajectory and distribution in the flow induced by the wake vortices has been proposed. Secondly, two simulators have been developed for evaluating the radar signa- tures of raindrops in wake vortices. One simulator is based on the simulation of radar signal time series, by superimposing the radar backscattered signal from each raindrop in the wake vortex region. The other one is based on the raindrops' number concentration and velocity distribution in wake vortices, enabling the computation of radar signatures much more efficiently. Those simulators have been used to re- produce experimental configurations and the comparison between measured and simulated signature has shown an interesting agreement at X and W band. Lastly, the interpretation of radar signatures of raindrops in wake vortices has been presented. Based on the computation of three spectral moments, the depen- dence of radar signatures on rain rate, vortex circulation and radar parameters has been studied for vortices generated by different aircraft types. A wake vortex detec- tion method based on the analysis of Doppler spectrum width of raindrops has been proposed. Considering radar scanning under flight path, a methodology to estimate the wake vortex characteristics has been proposed. Preliminary simulation results i ii have shown its effectiveness. The radar signatures of wake vortices in rainy weather have been modeled and analyzed in this thesis. The simulation results have demonstrated the capability of radar to detect wake vortex in rainy weather. The methodologies developed in this thesis can be further exploited for designing new wake vortex radar systems. Key words: Wake vortex, radar, rain, Doppler spectrum, detection R´esum´e Ces derni`eresann´ees,la d´etectiondes turbulences de sillage est apparue comme ´etant un des enjeux les plus importants pour l'am´elioration des proc´eduresde contr^olea´erien,et plus particuli`erement au d´ecollageet `al'atterrissage. Par beau temps, plusieurs exp´erimentations ont montr´eque le LIDAR ´etaitun capteur efficace pour ce type d'application. En pr´esencede pluie ou de nuages, le LIDAR ne peut plus op´ererdu fait de la perte de visibilit´eet le radar devient un capteur int´eressant pour d´etecter le mouvement des gouttes d'eau dans les turbulences de sillage. D`es lors, la surveillance des turbulences de sillage par radar en temps de pluie pr´esente un int´er^et`ala fois pratique et scientifique. Cette th´ematiquea ´et´etrait´ee`atravers trois ´etapes successives. Tout d'abord, le mouvement et la distribution des gouttes d'eau dans les vortex ont ´et´emod´elis´eset simul´es.A partir de l'´equationde la dynamique appliqu´eesur une goutte d'eau, une m´ethode de calcul de la trajectoire des gouttes d'eau et de leur concentration dans les turbulences de sillage a ´et´epropos´ee. Ensuite, deux simulateurs de r´eponse radar des gouttes d'eau dans et autour des vortex ont ´et´epropos´es. Le premier simulateur vise `ag´en´ererdes s´eriestem- porelles de signal radar, simulant la r´eponse individuelle de chaque goutte, pour le d´eveloppement des chaines de traitement radar. Le second simulateur vise `ag´en´erer directement la r´eponse radar id´ealis´ee`apartir de la concentration et de la vitesse des gouttes dans l'´ecoulement provoqu´epar les vortex, ce qui est algorithmiquement plus efficace. Ces deux simulateurs ont ´et´eutilis´espour reproduire des configura- tions exp´erimentales, et une comparaison pr´eliminaireavec les mesures a montr´e une concordance int´eressante entre mesures et simulations en bande X et W. Enfin, l'interpr´etationde la signature radar des gouttes de pluie dans les vortex a ´et´epr´esent´ee. Consid´erant le calcul de trois moments spectraux, la d´ependance de la signature envers diff´erents param`etres,`asavoir l'intensit´ede pr´ecipitation,la circulation des vortex et les param`etresradar, a ´et´e´etudi´eepour des turbulences iii iv de sillage g´en´er´eespar diff´erents types d'avions. Une m´ethode de d´etectiondes turbulences de sillage bas´eesur la largeur du spectre Doppler des gouttes de pluie a ´et´epropos´ee. Consid´erant un radar balayant sous les trajectoires d'approche, un algorithme permettant d'estimer les caract´eristiquesdes turbulences de sillage est propos´e. Des simulations pr´eliminairesont montr´eson efficacit´e. La signature radar des turbulences de sillage par temps de pluie a ´et´emod´elis´ee et analys´eedans cette th`ese.Les r´esultatsde simulations ont d´emontr´eles capacit´es du radar pour la d´etection de ces turbulences. Les m´ethodes d´evelopp´eesdans cette th`esepourront ^etreutilis´eespour le dimensionnement de syst`emesradar d´edi´es`ala surveillance des turbulences de sillage par temps de pluie. Mots cl´es: Tourbillons de sillage, wake vortex, radar, pluie, spectre Doppler, d´etection Acknowledgement I was very excited and moved when I finished the draft version of this manuscript. During this fulfilling and meaningful period of PhD study, I have experienced a lot and a large number of people in France and China are sincerely appreciated. I would like to express my deepest gratitude to Professor Francois Vincent from ISAE and Dr. Nicolas Jeannin from ONERA, for their helpful joint supervision of this PhD work and unconditional support all along the way. The investigation into a multi-disciplinary subject was not very easy, but their generosity and encouragement helped me to overcome all the obstacles. This manuscript would not have been possible without their constructive corrections and comments. I wish to specially thank Mr. Florent Christophe, the director of DEMR in ONERA Toulouse center, for his helpful supervision of my PhD progress. He accepted my PhD application in France, proposed this interesting PhD subject and also supported my PhD study all along the way. The discussions with him on the PhD progress meetings inspired me a lot. I would like to express my great gratitude to Mr. Fr´ed´ericBarbaresco from THALES Air System for his helpful supervision of my six months' training in TRT (Thales Research & Technology). It was his publications on wake vortex that mostly attracted my motivation to choose France as the destination of my PhD study. Professor Michel Bousquet from ISAE is also specially thanked for his sending me the invitation letter and support of my stay at Toulouse. Appreciation must also go to my colleagues in ISAE-DEOS and ONERA-DEMR for their kind hearted help during my stay there. I wish to specially thank Professor Xuesong Wang from NUDT in China, who has supervised my study since I was an undergraduate student and guided me to carry out research work on wake vortex as a PhD student in NUDT since 2008. His everlasting support, encouragement and supervision was a great source of my interest and progress on wake vortex study. Sincere thanks must also go to Dr. Tao Wang from NUDT in China for his valuable suggestions on my PhD work. He v vi has always been willing to help me whenever I needed it. Prof. Shunping Xiao, Prof. Wei Wang, Dr. Dahai Dai, Dr. Jianbing Li, Dr. Jun Li, Dr. Longhai Qu, Dr. Junkai Liu and some other colleagues from NUDT are also thanked for their unconditional help and sharing their knowledge on radar and wake vortex. Very special thanks to my friends who I met with in France. I have benefitted a lot from this life enriching and unforgettable three years and half with them in France. Very special thanks to my friends in China. Their greetings and encourage- ment have always been appreciated. My deepest gratitude goes to my parents and parents in law. My study and life in France would not have been so easy without their understanding and support. I wish to express my deepest love to my dear wife, Jing Xu. Her immeasurable support and endless love encourages me to meet with various challenges. Last but not least, I wish to express my appreciation of this multi-disciplinary PhD subject, which has brought me a broad view of the scientific research activities, including wake vortex aerodynamics, radar, precipitation, information geometry, spiral geometry of wake vortex, the interaction between particle and turbulent flow, etc.
Recommended publications
  • The Role of Vortex Structure in Tropical Cyclone Motion
    :A 9o943-R00fe NAVAL POSTIiRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California DISSERTATION THE ROLE OF VORTEX STRUCTURE IN TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION by Michael Fiorino December 1987 Dissertation Supervisor: R.L. Elsberry Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited T238908 IJJRITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE 8REP0RT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION lb RESTRICTIVE MARKINGS JNCLASSIFIED aSECURITY CLASSIFICATION AUTHORITY 3. DISTRIBUTION /AVAILABILITY OF REPORT Approved for public release; / : DECLASSIFICATION DOWNGRADING SCHEDULE distribution is unlimited. ERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUM8ER(S) 5. MONITORING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER(S) INAME OF PERFORMING ORGANIZATION 6b. OFFICE SYMBOL 7a. NAME OF MONITORING ORGANIZATION (If applicable) uval Postgraduate School 63 Naval Postgraduate School l^DORESS {City, State, and ZIP Code) 7b. ADDRESS {City, State, and ZIP Code) /.mterey, California 93943-5000 Monterey, California 93943-5000 iNAME OF FUNDING /SPONSORING 8b. OFFICE SYMBOL 9. PROCUREMENT INSTRUMENT IDENTIFICATION NUMBER ORGANIZATION (If applicable) :.\DORESS (City, State, and ZIP Code) 10. SOURCE OF FUNDING NUMBERS PROGRAM PROJECT TASK WORK UNIT ELEMENT NO. NO. NO ACCESSION NO. TITLE (Include Security Classification) e Role of Vortex Structure in Tropical Cyclone Motion »ERSONAL AUTHOR(S) Fiorino, Michael TYPE OF REPORT 13b. TIME COVERED 14. DATE OF REPORT (Year, Month, Day) IS. PAGE COUNT .D. Dissertation FROM TO 1987 December 371 UPPLEMENTARY NOTATION COSATl CODES 18. SUBJECT TERMS {Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number) FIELD GROUP SUB-GROUP Tropical cyclone motion, Barotropic model. Tropical cyclones. Circulation analysis, Beta drift ABSTRACT {Continue on reverse if necessary and Identify by block number) The role of vortex structure in tropical cyclone motion is studied using .moving-grid, nondivergent barotropic model on a beta plane in a no-flow vironment.
    [Show full text]
  • Deliverable D-4.01
    WakeNet3-Europe Grant Agreement No.: ACS7-GA-2008-213462 Deliverable D-4.01 Report 1 from Link activities and Trips Prepared by: Elsa FREVILLE (EUROCONTROL) Work Package: .............. 4 Dissemination level: ..... PU Version: ......................... Final Report Issued by: ...................... EUROCONTROL Reference: ..................... v1 Date: .............................. 12th March 2010 Number of pages: ......... 41 Project acronym: .............. WakeNet3-Europe Project full title: ................ European Coordination Action for Aircraft Wake Turbulence Project coordinator: ......... Airbus Operations S.A.S (*) Beneficiaries: A-F Airbus Operations S.A.S (*) TR6 Thales Air Systems THAv Thales Aerospace DLR Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt NLR Nationaal Lucht- en Ruimtevaartlaboratorium DFS DFS Deutsche Flugsicherung GmbH ONERA Office National d’Etudes et Recherches Aérospatiale NERL NATS En-Route Plc. UCL Université catholique de Louvain TUB Technische Universität Berlin ECA European Cockpit Association TU-BS Technische Universität Braunschweig A-D Airbus Operations GmbH (*) pending formal change of contract. This document has been produced under EC FP7 project 213462 (WakeNet3-Europe) 12 March 2010 Page 1 of 41 Document Revisions Version Date Modified Modified Comments page(s) section(s) 0.1 5th Feb 2010 Initial draft for review 0.2 22nd Feb 2010 7, 9, 33, 37- 2.1, 3, and Updates from A-D: 44 10 - Minor corrections for sections 2.1 and 3 - Section 10 is replaced by an inserted “pdf” file at the end of section 5.3.
    [Show full text]
  • METR 2603 Section 900 – Severe and Unusual Weather Fall 2012 Edition
    METR 2603 Section 900 – Severe and Unusual Weather Fall 2012 Edition Instructor: Mr. Ryan Sobash E-mail: [email protected] Meeting Times: MW 4:30pm - 5:45pm SEC A235 Office Hours: After class or by appointment (e-mail me!) Course Description Provides non-majors and majors a detailed descriptive account of the physical processes important in the formation of various severe and unusual weather phenomena including: thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail storms, lightning, hurricanes, mid- latitude snowstorms, lake effect snows, atmospheric optical effects, and global climate change. Textbook Required: Severe and Hazardous Weather: An introduction to high impact meteorology (4th edition) by Robert M. Rauber, John Walsh, and Donna Charlevoix. Book website: http://severewx.atmos.uiuc.edu/ I will inform you of the readings in the text that correspond to the material presented in class. I will frequently use questions and problems from the text for quizzes and exam questions, but I won’t expect you to know anything from the book that is not covered in the lectures. Desire2Learn Course announcements, lecture notes, homework assignments, and grades will be posted on the course page in the Desire2Learn system (learn.ou.edu). You can log into the system using your OU 4x4. Homework Assignments There will be 6 homework assignments due throughout the semester that provide an opportunity to apply your knowledge of the lecture material (often to meteorological events that occurred in Oklahoma). You will have 2 weeks to complete each assignment. I encourage you to start soon after they are assigned, to provide plenty of time for questions as they arise.
    [Show full text]
  • NWI Monthly Newsletter
    June 2017 — Issue 95 Letter from the Interim Director One of the most appreciated services NWI provides to our faculty affiliates is gap funding: When an existing grant has expired and a new one hasn’t come in, we make sure that graduate students, research associates, and technicians will be paid without interruption. By doing so, our researchers are able to maintain their capacity to execute the grants when they are awarded, as well as laying groundwork for future proposals. Such an “insurance policy” reflects the collective strength of the Institute, giving researchers extra confidence that they would not have oth- erwise as individuals. Due to budget cuts to multiple research and education programs, essential functions/ supports such as gap funding are at risk of being reduced or eliminated. Our leadership, working with advisory board members, are actively looking for creative ways to reorganize staff, increase efficiency, and raise funds from additional sources. One area in which we have been more engaged in lately is philanthropy. We are building a close relationship with the Office of Corporation and Daan Liang, Ph.D., P.E., Interim Director, NWI. Foundation Relations of Texas Tech University System which is extremely helpful in making contact with potential donors and project sponsors. Two visits are being planned this fall by major energy companies who have expressed a keen interest in our ex- panding footprint in renewable energy (wind, solar, battery, power grid) and robust educational programs (BSWE, Ph.D., continuing education). In addition, we receive legislative assistance from the federal relation team to be more proactive in applying for federal funding.
    [Show full text]
  • The Coastal Convective Interactions Experiment
    The Coastal Convective Interactions Experiment Joshua Stephen Soderholm BSc (Hons) A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at The University of Queensland in 2016 School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management i Abstract Prediction of convective storm environments relies principally upon the broad-scale meteorology (e.g., synoptic boundaries and air masses) in contrast to local-scale (2 – 20 km) processes within the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Diurnal heating of the Earth’s heterogeneous surface at these finer scales forces circulations (e.g., sea breezes, valley winds, urban heat island circulations) which have been related to trends in the meteorological and climatological activity of storms; however, a quantitative understanding of their interactions with deep convection is limited. This is especially true for physical settings which support a variety of PBL circulations that challenge our understanding of storm characteristics and evolution. This thesis presents results from the Coastal Convective Interactions Experiment (CCIE), which incorporates meteorological and climatological analyses to provide a comprehensive understanding of how a complex coastal setting influences the convective storm environment. An 18-year radar-derived storm climatology (July 1997 – June 2015) is developed for Southeast Queensland (SEQ), Australia, supporting the operational planning and findings of Australia’s first thunderstorm field campaign. The following thesis presents the experimental design and findings of the CCIE to establish the drivers of storm activity in a coastal setting. Results from the CCIE climatology confirmed not only the hailstorm hotpots recognised by experienced local forecasters, but also a correlation between the storm frequency and sea breezes. To investigate the meteorology of hailstorm hotspots and interactions with the sea breeze further, climatological results were applied to coordinate a field measurement campaign.
    [Show full text]
  • Florida State University Libraries
    Florida State University Libraries Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations The Graduate School 2019 A Climatology of U.S. Tropical Cyclone Rainfall, Its Use in a Statistical Forecasting Technique and an Analysis of Global Forecast System Tropical Cyclone Rainfall FTriostarne J. cHallst Environments Follow this and additional works at the DigiNole: FSU's Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected] FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF ARTS & SCIENCES A CLIMATOLOGY OF U.S. TROPICAL CYCLONE RAINFALL, ITS USE IN A STATISTICAL FORECASTING TECHNIQUE AND AN ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM TROPICAL CYCLONE RAINFALL FORECAST ENVIRONMENTS By TRISTAN HALL A Dissertation submitted to the Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2019 Copyright c 2019 Tristan Hall. All Rights Reserved. Tristan Hall defended this dissertation on July 9, 2019. The members of the supervisory committee were: Henry E. Fuelberg Professor Directing Dissertation David Van Winkle University Representative Robert E. Hart Committee Member Vasubandhu Misra Committee Member Philip Sura Committee Member The Graduate School has verified and approved the above-named committee members, and certifies that the dissertation has been approved in accordance with university requirements. ii To Catherine and Ainsley. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This dissertation could not have been completed without the help and guidance of Dr. Henry Fuelberg. He is a craftsman of words and logical thought. Additionally, this research could not have been completed without the help of Dr. Bob Hart. His knowledge of tropical cyclones is unmatched. I thank them both immensely for their acceptance of me to pursue my Ph.D.
    [Show full text]
  • National Windstorm Impact Reduction Program Biennial Progress Report to Congress for Fiscal Years 2015 and 2016
    NATIONAL WINDSTORM IMPACT REDUCTION PROGRAM BIENNIAL PROGRESS REPORT TO CONGRESS FOR FISCAL YEARS 2015 AND 2016 Disclaimer 1: Certain trade names or company products are mentioned in the text to specify experimental procedure and equipment used. In no case does such identification imply recommendation or endorsement by any of the agencies represented on the Interagency Coordinating Committee, nor does it imply that the equipment is the best available for the purpose. Disclaimer 2: In this document, we have provided link(s) to website(s) that may have information of interest to our users. The Interagency Coordinating Committee agencies do not endorse the views expressed or the facts presented on these sites. Further, Interagency Coordinating Committee agencies do not endorse any commercial products that may be advertised or available on these sites. This progress report for the National Windstorm Impact Reduction Program (NWIRP) is submitted to Congress by the Interagency Coordinating Committee of NWIRP, as required by the National Windstorm Impact Reduction Act of 2004 (Public Law 108-360, Title II), as amended by the National Windstorm Impact Reduction Act Reauthorization of 2015 (Public Law 114-52). Interagency Coordinating Committee Dr. Walter G. Copan - Chair Under Secretary of Commerce for Standards and Technology and Director National Institute of Standards and Technology U.S. Department of Commerce Dr. John Cortinas Director Office of Weather and Air Quality National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration U.S. Department of Commerce Dr. Barry Johnson Acting Assistant Director Engineering Directorate National Science Foundation Mr. Michael Kratsios Deputy Assistant to the President, and Deputy U.S. Chief Technology Officer Executive Office of the President Mr.
    [Show full text]
  • Mesoscale Convective Vortex Formation in a Weakly Sheared Moist Neutral Environment
    MAY 2007 CONZEMIUS ET AL. 1443 Mesoscale Convective Vortex Formation in a Weakly Sheared Moist Neutral Environment ROBERT J. CONZEMIUS Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, and Windlogics, Inc., Grand Rapids, Minnesota RICHARD W. MOORE Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, and Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science (IACETH), ETH-Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland MICHAEL T. MONTGOMERY Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, and Hurricane Research Division, NOAA/AOML, Miami, Florida CHRISTOPHER A. DAVIS National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado (Manuscript received 31 January 2006, in final form 31 July 2006) ABSTRACT Idealized simulations of a diabatic Rossby vortex (DRV) in an initially moist neutral baroclinic environ- ment are performed using the fifth-generation National Center for Atmospheric Research–Pennsylvania State University (NCAR–PSU) Mesoscale Model (MM5). The primary objective is to test the hypothesis that the formation and maintenance of midlatitude warm-season mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) are largely influenced by balanced flow dynamics associated with a vortex that interacts with weak vertical shear. As a part of this objective, the simulated DRV is placed within the context of the Bow Echo and Mesoscale Convective Vortex Experiment (BAMEX) field campaign by comparing its tangential velocity, radius of maximum winds, CAPE, and shear with the MCVs observed in BAMEX. The simulations reveal two distinct scales of development. At the larger scale, the most rapidly growing moist baroclinic mode is excited, and exponential growth of this mode occurs during the simulation.
    [Show full text]
  • The Role of Vortex and Environment Errors in Genesis Forecasts of Hurricanes Danielle and Karl (2010)
    232 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 141 The Role of Vortex and Environment Errors in Genesis Forecasts of Hurricanes Danielle and Karl (2010) RYAN D. TORN AND DAVID COOK Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York (Manuscript received 16 March 2012, in final form 2 July 2012) ABSTRACT An ensemble of Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) forecasts initialized from a cycling ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) system is used to evaluate the sensitivity of Hurricanes Danielle and Karl’s (2010) genesis forecasts to vortex and environmental initial conditions via ensemble sensitivity analysis. Both the Danielle and Karl forecasts are sensitive to the 0-h circulation associated with the pregenesis system over a deep layer and to the temperature and water vapor mixing ratio within the vortex over a comparatively shallow layer. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the 0-h ensemble kinematic and thermodynamic fields within the vortex indicate that the 0-h circulation and moisture fields covary with one another, such that a stronger vortex is associated with higher moisture through the column. Forecasts of the pregenesis system intensity are only sensitive to the leading mode of variability in the vortex fields, suggesting that only specific initial condition perturbations associated with the vortex will amplify with time. Multivariate regressions of the vortex EOFs and environmental parameters believed to impact genesis suggest that the Karl forecast is most sensitive to the vortex structure, with smaller sensitivity to the upwind integrated water vapor and 200–850-hPa vertical wind shear magnitude. By contrast, the Danielle forecast is most sensitive to the vortex structure during the first 24 h, but is more sensitive to the 200-hPa divergence and vertical wind shear magnitude at longer forecast hours.
    [Show full text]
  • The Initiation of Moist Convection at the Dryline: Forecasting Issues from a Case Study Perspective
    1106 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME 13 The Initiation of Moist Convection at the Dryline: Forecasting Issues from a Case Study Perspective CONRAD L. ZIEGLER AND ERIK N. RASMUSSEN NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma (Manuscript received 21 November 1997, in ®nal form 30 July 1998) ABSTRACT The processes that force the initiation of deep convection along the dryline are inferred from special mesoscale observations obtained during the 1991 Central Oklahoma Pro®ler Studies project, the Veri®cation of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment 1994 (VORTEX-94), and the VORTEX-95 ®eld projects. Observations from aircraft, mobile CLASS soundings, and mobile mesonets de®ne the ®elds of air¯ow, absolute humidity, and virtual temperature in the boundary layer across the dryline on the 15 May 1991, 7 June 1994, and 6 May 1995 case days. Film and video cloud images obtained by time-lapse cameras on the NOAA P-3 are used to reconstruct the mesoscale distribution of cumulus clouds by photogrammetric methods, permitting inferences concerning the environmental conditions accompanying cloud formation or suppression. The results of the present study con®rm the classical notion that the dryline is a favored zone for cumulus cloud formation. The combined cloud distributions for the three cases are approximately Gaussian, suggesting a peak expected cloud frequency 15 km east of the dryline. Deep mesoscale moisture convergence is inferred in cloudy regions, with either subsidence or a lack of deep convergence in cloud-free regions. The results document the modulating effect of vertical wind shear and elevated dry layers in combination with the depth and strength of mesoscale updrafts on convective initiation, supporting the notion that moist boundary layer air parcels must be lifted to their lifted condensation level and level of free convection prior to leaving the mesoscale updraft to form deep convection.
    [Show full text]
  • The Role of Vortex Structure in Tropical Cyclone Motion
    Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 1987 The role of vortex structure in tropical cyclone motion. Fiorino, Michael. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/22465 :A 9o943-R00fe NAVAL POSTIiRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California DISSERTATION THE ROLE OF VORTEX STRUCTURE IN TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION by Michael Fiorino December 1987 Dissertation Supervisor: R.L. Elsberry Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited T238908 IJJRITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE 8REP0RT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION lb RESTRICTIVE MARKINGS JNCLASSIFIED aSECURITY CLASSIFICATION AUTHORITY 3. DISTRIBUTION /AVAILABILITY OF REPORT Approved for public release; / : DECLASSIFICATION DOWNGRADING SCHEDULE distribution is unlimited. ERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUM8ER(S) 5. MONITORING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER(S) INAME OF PERFORMING ORGANIZATION 6b. OFFICE SYMBOL 7a. NAME OF MONITORING ORGANIZATION (If applicable) uval Postgraduate School 63 Naval Postgraduate School l^DORESS {City, State, and ZIP Code) 7b. ADDRESS {City, State, and ZIP Code) /.mterey, California 93943-5000 Monterey, California 93943-5000 iNAME OF FUNDING /SPONSORING 8b. OFFICE SYMBOL 9. PROCUREMENT INSTRUMENT IDENTIFICATION NUMBER ORGANIZATION (If applicable) :.\DORESS (City, State, and ZIP Code) 10. SOURCE OF FUNDING NUMBERS PROGRAM PROJECT TASK WORK UNIT ELEMENT NO. NO. NO ACCESSION NO. TITLE (Include Security Classification) e Role of Vortex Structure in Tropical Cyclone Motion »ERSONAL AUTHOR(S) Fiorino, Michael TYPE OF REPORT 13b. TIME COVERED
    [Show full text]
  • Mesoscale Convective Vortex Formation in a Weakly Sheared Moist Neutral Environment
    MAY 2007 CONZEMIUS ET AL. 1443 Mesoscale Convective Vortex Formation in a Weakly Sheared Moist Neutral Environment ROBERT J. CONZEMIUS Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, and Windlogics, Inc., Grand Rapids, Minnesota RICHARD W. MOORE Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, and Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science (IACETH), ETH-Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland MICHAEL T. MONTGOMERY Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, and Hurricane Research Division, NOAA/AOML, Miami, Florida CHRISTOPHER A. DAVIS National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado (Manuscript received 31 January 2006, in final form 31 July 2006) ABSTRACT Idealized simulations of a diabatic Rossby vortex (DRV) in an initially moist neutral baroclinic environ- ment are performed using the fifth-generation National Center for Atmospheric Research–Pennsylvania State University (NCAR–PSU) Mesoscale Model (MM5). The primary objective is to test the hypothesis that the formation and maintenance of midlatitude warm-season mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) are largely influenced by balanced flow dynamics associated with a vortex that interacts with weak vertical shear. As a part of this objective, the simulated DRV is placed within the context of the Bow Echo and Mesoscale Convective Vortex Experiment (BAMEX) field campaign by comparing its tangential velocity, radius of maximum winds, CAPE, and shear with the MCVs observed in BAMEX. The simulations reveal two distinct scales of development. At the larger scale, the most rapidly growing moist baroclinic mode is excited, and exponential growth of this mode occurs during the simulation.
    [Show full text]