Misfortunes of War: Press and Public Reactions to Civilian Deaths In
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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. MISFORTUNES OF WAR Press and Public Reactions to Civilian Deaths in Wartime Eric V. Larson • Bogdan Savych Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Larson, Eric V. (Eric Victor), 1957– Misfortunes of war : press and public reactions to civilian deaths in wartime / Eric V. Larson, Bogdan Savych. p. cm. “Aerospace Force Development Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN-13: 978-0-8330-3897-5 (pbk.) 1. Civilian war casualties. 2. Mass media and war. 3. War in mass media. 4. United States. Air Force—History—20th century. 5. United States. Air Force— History—21st century. 6. United States. Air Force—Public relations. 7. Combatants and noncombatants (International law) 8. Military history, Modern—20th century. 9. Military history, Modern—21st century. 10. War—Moral and ethical aspects. I. Savych, Bogdan. II. Project Air Force (U.S.) III. Rand Corporation. IV. Title. U21.2.L375 2006 363.34'98—dc22 2006030856 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2006 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2006 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface Concern in U.S. military and policymaking circles about civilian casu- alties and collateral damage in U.S. military operations appears to have increased since the end of the Cold War. In part, this concern appears to be based upon beliefs about the reactions of U.S. and foreign press and publics in response to these incidents, especially the belief that incidents of civilian deaths reduce public support for military opera- tions. There has not, however, been any sort of empirical analysis of press and public reactions to these incidents or of the effect of these incidents on public support. To improve policymakers’ and senior military leaders’ understand- ing of this topic, this monograph provides the results of a mixed quan- titative and qualitative analysis of U.S. and foreign media and public opinion reactions to incidents of collateral damage involving civilian deaths in recent U.S. wars and military operations. It is part of a larger RAND Project AIR FORCE fiscal year 2004 study titled “Controlling Collateral Damage in Air Operations.” The research reported here was sponsored by Maj Gen Teresa M. Peterson (AF/XOO) and conducted within the Aerospace Force Development Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corpo- ration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and develop- ment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with iii iv Misfortunes of War: Press and Public Reactions to Civilian Deaths in Wartime independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aero- space forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Manage- ment; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available at our Web site at http://www.rand.org/paf. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Tables .............................................................................xiii Summary ........................................................................ xvii Acknowledgments ............................................................. xxv Abbreviations ..................................................................xxvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Literature Review .................................................................. 4 John E. Mueller .................................................................. 5 The Principal Policy Objective (PPO) Approach............................. 6 Eric Larson........................................................................ 9 Peter D. Feaver and Christopher Gelpi.......................................11 Scott S. Gartner and Gary M. Segura........................................13 Approach ...........................................................................15 Organization of This Monograph ...............................................18 CHAPTER TWO Operation Desert Storm (Iraq, 1991) ........................................21 Civilian Casualty Estimates .....................................................21 Handling of the Civilian Casualties Issue..................................... 24 The Arc of Media and Public Concern ........................................ 26 U.S. Media and Public Opinion Responses ................................ 26 Foreign Media and Public Opinion ..........................................35 v vi Misfortunes of War: Press and Public Reactions to Civilian Deaths in Wartime The Al Firdos Bunker Incident ................................................. 43 U.S. Media and Public Opinion Responses .................................45 Foreign Media and Public Opinion Responses..............................57 Key Lessons ........................................................................58 CHAPTER THREE Operation Allied Force (Kosovo, 1999) .....................................63 Civilian Casualty Estimates .................................................... 64 Estimates of Civilian Deaths Due to NATO Action ...................... 64 Civilian Deaths Due to FRY Action..........................................67 Estimates of FRY Military Deaths Due to NATO Action ................71 Handling of the Civilian Casualties Issue......................................71 The FRY’s Handling of the Casualties Issue.................................71 The U.S. Coalition’s Treatment of the Civilian Casualties Issue..........74 The Arc of Media and Public Concern .........................................75 U.S. Media and Public Opinion Responses .................................75 Foreign Media and Public Opinion ..........................................85 The April 14 Convoy Attacks Outside Djakovica ............................ 92 U.S. Media and Public Opinion Responses ................................ 99 Foreign Media and Public Opinion Responses............................ 104 The May 7 Chinese Embassy Bombing ...................................... 106 U.S. Media and Public Opinion Responses ............................... 109 Foreign Media and Public Opinion Responses............................ 115 Conclusions ...................................................................... 119 CHAPTER FOUR Operation Enduring Freedom (Afghanistan, 2001–) ................... 125 Civilian Casualty Estimates ................................................... 125 Handling of the Civilian Casualties Issue.................................... 127 The Arc of Media and Public Concern ....................................... 129 U.S. Media and