PICSS Annual Report 2018

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018-19

About PICSS

Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) is an Islamabad based independent think tank with special focus on studying anti-state violence in Pakistan. PICSS was formally launched in 2014 with the vision “To work as an institution that provides authentic, credible, reliable, up to date, and efficient information and objective analysis related to defence and security, for policy development leading to peace and stability”. Former foreign secretary and senator (retd) Akram Zaki (late) was its founder chairman who continued to hold the position till his demise in November 2017. PICSS maintains a database of militant attacks and security forces actions in Pakistan since 9/11 (known as PICSS Militancy Database). It also issues Daily, Weekly, Monthly, and Annual Security Assessment Reports based on information collected through open sources as well as its own correspondents in conflict zones. PICSS reports can be subscribed, at a nominal contribution/ subscription to meet the cost (write to [email protected] for subscription). PICSS also maintains data related to drone strikes in Pakistan. It is part of Casualty Recorders Network established by Oxford Research Group (UK), which is a network of organizations working on studying conflicts and maintaining databases.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

Completion of “PICSS Annual Security Journal 2018-19” would have not been completed without tireless efforts of my research team who has worked day and night to conduct research and analyses and managed to complete it within shortest possible time. Similarly, continuous support and encouragement of Major General (retd) Muhammad Saad Khattak, Chairman PICSS, and Mr. Abdullah Khan, Managing Director PICSS, kept me and my team motivated to undertake this gigantic task.

I also want to duly acknowledge efforts of Ms. Shumaila Khan, Coordinator and Accounts Officer; Mr. Hassam Siddiqui, Director Programmes; Mr. Ali Hussain, Research Associate; Ms. Quratulain Iftikhar, Media Coordinator, Ms. Siddiqua Sadiq Kiyani, Research Assistant, Ms. Tayyaba Rafique, Research Assistant; Mr. Irshad Hussain, Research Assistant; and Ms. Amna Rafique Research Assistant. In addition, field correspondents of PICSS who mostly work in very hostile environment deserve appreciation for their constant input throughout the year.

Last but not the least, commendation to Mr. Arfa Mehmood, Research Associate, without whose continuous work throughout the year, the quantitative portion of this journal could not have been completed.

Gul Dad

Director Research & HR

10 January 2019

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DATA COLLECTION METHODOLOGY

Sources: Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) collects information from all available sources and tries to record each and every violent incident available from reliable and quotable sources. Following sources of information are used to collect data: 1. Open Sources e.g. newspapers (including local and national); TV channels; news websites; Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR; government websites; and militant websites, forums and their social media accounts, etc. 2. Government offices, e.g. ministry of interior, police, ministry of health 3. Own correspondents: We have our own network of two types of correspondents a. PICSS own correspondents in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, FATA and Balochistan. b. Volunteer's network: Local journalists and volunteers contribute voluntarily in reporting violent incidents and other militancy related developments. Methods: PICSS corroborates every incident from as many sources as possible to make sure the information recorded in the database is correct to best possibilities. Database is continuously reviewed and updated. Incidents are recorded mainly in two categories. 1. Violent militant attacks. a. Militant Attacks against government, public, or private targets. These targets can be against life or property e.g. government installations such as gas pipe lines, electricity transmission lines etc. b. Militant clashes among different militant groups 2. Security Forces Actions a. Violent responses in which arms/weapons are used b. None-violent responses such as arrests without using/firing weapons and defusing bombs etc. Focus: PICSS is focused only on anti-state violence and related response. Sectarian violence, general crimes, ethnic or linguistic based violence are not recorded. However, there is overlapping related to actions of certain sectarian groups who were previously involved only in sectarian violence but now have nexus with anti-state armed groups thus, the PICSS tries to record those violent incidents of such groups which have connection of anti-state intentions. Sectarian violence has different dynamics and requires separate analysis. Different factors are kept in view while deciding that an incident is anti-state or not. Following factors are taken into account while categorizing whether an incident is anti-state or otherwise:- 1. Target. a. Generally, target of a violent militant activity helps to define the nature of attack. Activities in which government installation are targeted are

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considered anti-state. b. Attack against on-duty uniformed personnel of security forces are recorded as anti-state c. Attacks against a groups of government officials where circumstances show that target was not an individual official, but government functioning was targeted are also recorded as anti-state. d. Attacks against individual officials whether in uniform or part of civil government is evaluated from different aspects. Only being a member of government or military is not enough to determine whether the aim was to target state, or it was due to personal enmity. In such cases perpetrators and other circumstances are used to determine the nature of the attack. 2. Perpetrator: a. If an activity is perpetrated by known militant groups fighting against state such as Al-Qaeda, TTP, BLA, etc. are recorded as anti-state activity. b. In case a sectarian militant group perpetrates a violent act than it is determined from the nature of target. If the target was of sectarian nature only than it is not recorded in anti-state database. c. If perpetrator is not known than nature of the target is used to determine the nature of the incident. d. Circumstances: At times, target of the violent activity and perpetrator both remain unclear then nature of the incident is determined based on the circumstances of the incidents. E.g. A blast occurs at a place where no one is targeted and apparently it is not known who carried out the blast. There are possibilities that militants were transporting some explosives which could detonate erroneously. This will be anti-state activity. However, it is also possible that criminals other than militants were transporting the explosives and it got detonated. In such cases police investigations and different dimensions of the incident are kept in view to determine the exact nature of the incident. This type of situation arises rarely during the data collection operations thus, it is least likely that an error can influence overall pattern of violence. e. No doubtful entry: PICSS researchers use this principle while recording violent incidents "when there is a doubt, cut it out'. Only those incidents are recorded in the database where PICSS has no doubt about the nature of incident.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

About PICSS ...... 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ...... 3 DATA COLLECTION METHODOLOGY ...... 4 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ...... 12 NATIONAL SECURITY PROFILE ...... 14 Countrywide Militant Attacks ...... 16 Type of Militant Attacks An Assessment ...... 19 Suicide Attacks ...... 19 IEDs ...... 20 Physical Militant Assaults ...... 21 Target-Killing ...... 22 Present Status and Evolution of Militant Groups in 2018...... 22 Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) ...... 22 Jamat-ul-Ahrar (JuA) ...... 23 Hazbul Ahrar (HuA), a rebirth of Jamat-ul-Ahrar ...... 24 DAESH ...... 25 Al-Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) in 2018 ...... 26 Majeed Brigade, the elite unit of BLA ...... 27 PROVINCIAL SECURITY PROFILE ...... 30 Security Situation in Balochistan ...... 30 Security Situation in erstwhile FATA ...... 34 Security Situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) ...... 40 Security Situation in Punjab...... 43 Security Situation in Sindh ...... 44 Security Situation in Gilgit-Baltistan ...... 47 Security Situation in Islamabad & Azad Jammu and Kashmir ...... 47 Security Situation in PTI’s Government and Likely Future Policies ...... 49 Counter-Terrorism Strategy by PTI ...... 50 Revamping NAP ...... 52

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Cyber Security ...... 52 National Internal Security Policy ...... 52 Revival of Apex Committees ...... 53 All stakes holders on the same page ...... 53 Missing Links ...... 53 CHALLENGES TO CPEC AND CHINESE CITIZENS – AN APPRAISAL ...... 55 Overview ...... 55 Potential Threats to CPEC and Chinese Citizens ...... 55 Separatist Militants ...... 55 Religiously-Motivated Militants ...... 57 Efforts/Policies by Government of Pakistan to protect Chinese and CPEC ...... 58 Existing Arrangements ...... 58 Prospects of improvement in existing arrangements ...... 59 Measures taken after attack on Chinese Consulate in Karachi ...... 59 CIVIL MILITARY RELATIONS- AN OVERVIEW OF 2018 ...... 61 MILITARY COURTS’ FATE HANGS IN BALANCE ...... 63 PAIGHAM-E-PAKISTAN JOINT FATWA: A STEP IN RIGHT DIRECTION ...... 66 ACTIONS AGAINST JUD; MAINSTREAMING OF FAR-RIGHT – STRATEGIC DIRECTION NEEDED 67 PAKISTAN’S PLACEMENT IN THE GREY LIST AND ITS IMPLICATIONS ...... 70 LEAST POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS...... 73 GREATER AUTONOMY FOR AJK, GB: A STEP IN RIGHT DIRECTION ...... 74 BLASPHEMY ISSUE: ACTION NEEDED LOCALLY AS WELL AS INTERNATIONALLY ...... 76 ISSUE OF MISSING-PERSONS; RETROSPECTION REQUIRED ...... 80 BLASPHEMY LAW AND COURT’S VERDICT ON ASIA BIBI: DELIBERATIONS NEEDED ...... 82 A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FIRST 100 DAYS OF PML-N AND PTI GOVERNMENTS ...... 86 Introduction ...... 86 First 100 Days of PML(N) Government ...... 86 Political Stability: ...... 87 Economic Stability: ...... 87 Energy Sector: ...... 87 Counter Terrorism Strategy: ...... 87

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First 100 days of PTI Government: ...... 88 Political Environment: ...... 88 Accountability: ...... 89 Economy crisis: ...... 89 Conclusion ...... 90 TROUBLES IN KASHMIR AND INDIA-PAKISTAN RELATIONS ...... 92 Hostility and Uneasy Borders ...... 92 Militants’ Attack on Army Base in Jammu and Blame Game ...... 93 Growing Voices in Kashmir to Resolve Issue Through Dialogue ...... 94 Al-Qaeda and IS in Kashmir: Real or Concocted? ...... 95 Diplomatic Row and Further Tensions between Pakistan and India ...... 95 Pakistan’s Peace Overtures in March ...... 96 Indian Media Confirmed Kulbhushan Jadhav as RAW Agent ...... 97 Cycle of Violence in Kashmir and Wider Condemnation ...... 97 UNHCR Chief’s Call for Investigation into HR Violations in Kashmir; UK Report on HR violations ...... 100 PM Imran Khan’s Outreach to India; Indian Intransigence Continued ...... 101 Pakistan’s Foreign Minister’s Catharsis at the UNGA ...... 103 Engagement through Religious Diplomacy/ Opening of Kartarpur Corridor ...... 103 Continued Indian Involvement in Anti-Pakistan Activities ...... 105 Conclusion ...... 105 AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN RELATIONS AND POLITICAL RECONCILIATION IN AFGHANISTAN 106 Afghan Blame Game After Deadly Attacks in Kabul and Efforts towards Structural Engagement ...... 106 Daesh Increasing Foothold in Afghanistan; Regional Concerns ...... 110 Efforts at Starting Peace Talks ...... 111 Taliban’s Spring Offensive Al- Khandaq and Ceasefire on Eid ...... 112 Eid Message of Afghan Taliban- Direct Talks with the US ...... 113 Change of US Strategy; Opting for Direct Talks ...... 114 Change of Government in Pakistan and Fresh Efforts for Improving Relations ...... 115 Second Ceasefire by Afghan Government; Taliban Remained Defiant ...... 116 Moscow Initiative and Sense of Urgency in the US Camp ...... 117 Talks in UAE and Taliban’s Refusal to Engage Afghan Government ...... 118

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Conclusion ...... 118 PAKISTAN-US RELATIONS CONTINUED TO HOVER AROUND AFGHANISTAN ...... 120 Dawning of 2018: President Trumps Accusation Against Pakistan and Pressure Tactics ...... 120 Pakistan Sought Broad-based US-Pak Relations; Political Solution of Afghan Issue ...... 122 US Blocking of Listing JuA Chief and Diplomatic Row ...... 124 US Nervousness on Growing China-Pakistan Relations and CPEC ...... 125 Imran Khan Coming to Power: Resumption of Diplomatic Engagement ...... 125 US President’s Out of Sync Tirade against Pakistan and Damage Control Measures ...... 127 Conclusion ...... 128 PAKISTAN-SAUDI ARABIA STRATEGIC RELATIONS: DICTATES OF THEIR OWN DYNAMICS ..... 128 IRAN-PAKISTAN NARROWING DOWN DIVERGENCES TO STRENGTHEN RELATIONS ...... 133 PAKISTAN-RUSSIA RELATIONS: CONVERGENCES AND DIVERGENCES ...... 137

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Break up of overall violent incidents of the year 2018 ...... 15 Table 2: Regional Distribution of overall incidents in 2018 ...... 16 Table 3: Regional Distribution of Militant Attacks in 2018 ...... 18 Table 4:Regional Distribution of Militant Attacks in 2018 ...... 19 Table 5: Regional distribution of SFAs in 2018 ...... 29 Table 6: Monthly break up of militant Attacks in Balochistan - 2018 ...... 32 Table 7: Type of Attacks in Balochistan in 2018 ...... 33 Table 8: Affected districts in Balochistan in 2018 ...... 33 Table 9: Monthly break-up of militant Attacks in FATA...... 36 Table 10: Type of Attacks in FATA in 2017 ...... 36 Table 11: Affected Agencies/ districts in FATA in 2017 ...... 37 Table 12: Monthly break-up of militant Attacks in KPK - 2018 ...... 41 Table 13: Type of Attacks in KPK in 2018 ...... 42 Table 14: Affected Districts of KPK in 2018 ...... 42 Table 15: Monthly break up of militant attacks in Punjab and their human impact ...... 43 Table 16: Type of Attacks in Punjab in 2018 ...... 44 Table 17: Affected Districts of Sindh in 2018 ...... 44 Table 18: Monthly break up of militant attacks in Sindh and their human impact ...... 45 Table 19: Type of Attacks in Sindh in 2018 ...... 46 Table 20: Affected Districts of Sindh in 2018 ...... 46

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Overall Number of Incidents, Deaths and Injuries in 2018 - Monthly Trend ...... 15 Figure 2: Regional distribution of Overall Incidents – Percentage Share (rounded off) ...... 15 Figure 3: Figure 3: Yearly Comparison of Militant Attacks and resultant deaths/injuries since 2011 ...... 16 Figure 4: Militant attacks and resultant deaths/injuries in 2018– Monthly Trend ...... 17 Figure 5: Categories of deaths and injuries in Militant Attacks in 2018 – Percentage share ...... 17 Figure 6: Geographical distribution of Militant Attacks and their impact - 2018 ...... 18 Figure 7: Regional Distribution of number of suicide attacks in 2018 ...... 20 Figure 8: Province-wise impact of suicide attacks in 2018 ...... 20 Figure 9: Impact of Physical Assaults in 2018 ...... 21 Figure 10: Monthly Comparison of Militant Attacks in Balochistan and their impact ...... 32 Figure 11: Yearly Comparison of Militant Attacks in Balochistan since 2011 ...... 33 Figure 12: Monthly Comparison of Militant attacks in FATA and their impact ...... 36 Figure 13: Yearly Comparison of Militant Attacks in FATA since 2011 ...... 37 Figure 14: Monthly Comparison of militant attacks in KPK - 2018 ...... 40 Figure 15: Yearly Comparison of Militant Attacks in KPK since 2011 ...... 41 Figure 16: Monthly comparison of militant attacks in Sindh ...... 45 Figure 17: Yearly Comparison of Militant Attacks in Sindh since 2011 ...... 46

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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

AJK Azad Jammu & Kashmir Arst Arrested by Security Forces C Civilian CBA Cross Border Attack CTD Counter Terrorism Department (of Police) CrK Cracker Attack FATA Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (now merged with KPK) FC Frontier Corps GB Gilgit-Baltistan GrA Grenade Attack IED Improvised Explosive Device or Handmade bombs ICT Islamabad Capital Territory ISI Inter-Services Intelligence ISPR Inter-Services Public Relations JuD Jamat-ud-Dawa KP, KPK Khyber Pakhtunkhwa K Kidnapping KK Kidnapping and Killing Kdnp Kidnappings by Militants LeI Lashker-e-Islam LeJ Lashker-e-Jhangvi LeJA Lashker-e-Jhangvi Al-Almi LOC Line of Control M Militant MA Militants’ (Physical) Assault MAs Militant Attacks MC Militant Clash MrS Mortar Shelling NACTA National Counter Terrorism Authority NAP National Action Plan NDS National Directorate of Security Nos Number of Incidents PAF Pakistan Air Force PGR, RZ, R Razakar (Pro government tribal militias) RA Rocket Attack RAW Research & Analysis Wing SA Suicide Attack SFAs Security Forces Actions SFP Security Forces Personnel SRA Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army TK Targeted Killing TTP Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or Pakistani Taliban TTP-JA, JuA Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan Jamat ul Ahrar

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SECTION-I

National and Provincial Security Profile - 2018

Significant Improvement in Security Situation in Pakistan

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NATIONAL SECURITY PROFILE

In 2018, drastic reduction in overall were civilians and almost 29 percent security incidents (security forces actions and forces personnel. militant attacks combined) was witnessed as As shown in Table-2, Balochistan 406 such incidents were recorded in which witnessed highest number of overall 694 people were killed and 985 others were incidents as the province witnessed 140 injured. 360 suspected militants were (almost 35 percent) such incidents, followed arrested while militants kidnapped five by 83 (more than 20 percent) in FATA, 67 people. When compared with 2017, there (almost 17 percent) in KPK, 66 (more than 16 has been 57 percent decrease in number of percent) in Sindh, 43 (almost 11 percent) in overall incidents, more than 50 percent Punjab, six (one percent) in Gilgit-Baltistan reduction in deaths and almost 50 reduction and one in Islamabad Capital Territory as in those injured as the previous year had shown in Figure-2. In terms of monthly witnessed 950 overall violent incidents in comparison (see Figure-1), July was the which 1395 people were killed while 1965 worst month in which 39 overall incidents others were injured. Out of 406 overall and phenomenal 234 deaths and 423 injuries incidents in 2018, 229 were militant attacks were reported across the country. This and 177 were security forces actions (see upsurge in violence in July was due to general Table-1). Among those killed, almost 51 elections in the country, which anti- percent were civilians, 25 percent security democratic militants tried to disrupt as was forces personnel and 24 percent militants witnessed in previously held elections in while among the injured, almost 71 percent Pakistan in 2013.

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Table 1: Break up of overall violent incidents of the year 2018

Deaths Injuries Category Nos Arst Kdnp SFP RZ M C Total SFP RZ M C Total SFAs 177 18 0 97 0 115 21 0 2 2 25 360 0 MAs 229 154 2 67 356 579 262 0 5 693 960 0 5 Total 406 172 2 164 356 694 283 0 7 695 985 360 5

Figure 1: Overall Number of Incidents, Deaths and Injuries in 2018 - Monthly Trend

450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Nos Deaths Injuries

Figure 2: Regional distribution of Overall Incidents – Percentage Share (rounded off)

Sindh 16% Balochistan Punjab 35% 11%

KPK 17% ICT 0% GB FATA 1% 20% Balochistan FATA GB ICT KPK Punjab Sindh

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Table 2: Regional Distribution of overall incidents in 2018

Killed Injured Region Nos Arst Kdnp SFP RZ M C Total SFP RZ M C Total Balochistan 140 92 0 72 237 401 151 0 2 432 585 123 0 FATA 83 40 2 41 62 145 70 0 3 78 151 3 3 GB 6 3 0 2 0 5 2 0 1 0 3 10 0 ICT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 KPK 67 25 0 16 39 80 44 0 0 137 181 20 2 Punjab 43 7 0 13 8 28 8 0 1 33 42 99 0 Sindh 66 5 0 20 10 35 8 0 0 15 23 102 0 Total 406 172 2 164 356 694 283 0 7 695 985 360 5

Countrywide Militant Attacks

Substantial decrease in militant those injured were recorded when attacks was observed in the country in 2018 compared with the previous year of 2017. as the year witnessed 229 militant attacks as 6000 compared to 420 5000 militant attacks that were recorded in 4000 2017. In 229 militant attacks recorded 3000 during 2018, as much 2000 as 579 people were killed and 960 others 1000 were injured as compared to 912 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 deaths and 1877 injuries recorded in No of Attacks Deaths Injuries 2017. Thus, there has Figure 3: Figure 3: Yearly Comparison of Militant been almost 45 percent reduction in Attacks and resultant deaths/injuries since 2011 militant attacks, 37 percent reduction in deaths and almost 49 percent reduction in Geographically, Balochistan was percent of total militant attacks were reported in worst affected region where 99 militant attacks erstwhile FATA region where 66 militant attacks (more than 43 percent of total attacks) were caused killing of 109 people and injuries to 151 reported while the highest number of deaths of others. KPK witnessed 40 militant attacks in 354 people (more than 61 percent of total) and which 39 people were killed and 174 others were 570 others injured (more than 59 percent of total) injured. Sindh witnessed 15 attacks in which 22 were also recorded in Balochistan. Almost 29 people were killed and 20 others were injured.

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Punjab witnessed five militant attacks that forces personnel and almost one percent caused death to 17 people and injuries to 42 militants (see figure-5). July was the most others. Four militant attacks were reported in violent month in which 228 people (more Gilgit-Baltistan in which five people were killed than 39 percent of total) were killed and 419 and three others were injured. others (more than 60 percent of total) were In terms of categories, 61 percent injured. This upsurge in violence in the killed in militant attacks were civilians, 27 country was due to general elections when percent security forces personnel and 12 militants, with their known opposition to percent militants while 72 percent of those democratic process, tried to disrupt injured were civilians, 27 percent security elections. Figure 4: Militant attacks and resultant deaths/injuries in 2018– Monthly Trend

450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

Nos Deaths Injuries

Figure 5: Categories of deaths and injuries in Militant Attacks in 2018 – Percentage share

Deaths Injuries

Security Security Forces Forces 27% 27%

Razakars MilitantsRazakars Civilians 0% 1%0% 61% Civilians 72% Militants 12%

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Table 3: Regional Distribution of Militant Attacks in 2018

Killed Injured Region Nos Arst Kdnp SFP RZ M C Total SFP RZ M C Total Balochistan 99 86 0 31 237 354 140 0 0 430 570 0 0 FATA 66 29 2 16 62 109 70 0 3 78 151 0 3 GB 4 3 0 2 0 5 2 0 1 0 3 0 0 KPK 40 25 0 8 39 72 37 0 0 137 174 0 2 Punjab 5 7 0 2 8 17 8 0 1 33 42 0 0 Sindh 15 4 0 8 10 22 5 0 0 15 20 0 0 Total 229 154 2 67 356 579 262 0 5 693 960 0 5

Figure 6: Geographical distribution of Militant Attacks and their impact - 2018

600

500

400

300

200

100

0 Balochistan FATA GB KPK Punjab Sindh

No of Attacks Deaths Injuries

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Type of Militant Attacks An Assessment

Analysing types of militant attacks is very important to understand operational capabilities of militant attacks, their objectives, priorities, and other related aspects. Therefore, PICSS records every militant attack as per its type and intended target. Following table shows distribution of types of attacks during 2018. Table 4:Regional Distribution of Militant Attacks in 2018

Killed Injured Type Nos M Arst Kdnp SFP RZ M C Total SFP RZ M C Total CrK 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 GrA 10 0 0 0 4 4 5 0 0 65 70 0 0 IED 87 39 0 3 76 118 107 0 0 202 309 0 0 K 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 MA 51 40 2 38 20 100 65 0 5 14 84 0 3 MC 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 RA 4 8 0 0 0 8 4 0 0 0 4 0 0 SA 18 42 0 20 205 267 76 0 0 384 460 0 0 TK 55 25 0 5 51 81 5 0 0 24 29 0 0 Total 229 154 2 67 356 579 262 0 5 693 960 0 5

As evident from the table above that most are analysed in detail in the following. of the killings took place in four categories Deaths in other categories were less than of the militant attacks i.e. suicide attacks, ten in each category as shown in the IEDs, physical assaults and targeted table-4. killings, therefore these four categories Suicide Attacks Suicide attacks saw a slight dip in 2018 as The suicide attacks remained the most compared to 2017 however, number of lethal type of attacks the militants have casualties per attack increased. In 2017 been using as 46 percent of the total Pakistan had witnessed 23 suicide attack in deaths and 48 percent of the total injuries which 299 people were killed while in 2018 occurred in these attacks. 267 people were killed in 18 suicide Balochistan faced highest number of attacks. The death to attacks ration in 2017 suicide attacks and resultant deaths during was 13 which increased to 15 in 2018. The the year 2018. The year also saw a suicide ratio is higher than last five years except attack by sub-nationalist militants of 2016 when per attack deaths were 19. The Balochistan Liberation Army. Generally, ratio is on the higher side because of one groups like BLA, BRA etc. avoid suicide suicide attack in July 2018 against an attacks however, 2018 saw not only a election gathering of a provincial assembly suicide attack against Chinese engineers in candidate Nawab Siraj Raeesani in Dalbandin district of Balochistan but the Mastung district of Balochistan. militants who were gunned down during a

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foiled attack on Chinese Consulate attack which is a new phenomenon. in Karachi were also wearing suicide vests Suicide Attacks in 2018

Sindh Punjab 6% 11%

KPK 22% Balochistan 61%

Balochistan KPK Punjab Sindh

Figure 7: Regional Distribution of number of suicide attacks in 2018

Province-wise impact of suicide bombing in 2018

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Balochistan FATA KP Punjab

Attacks Death Injuries

Figure 8: Province-wise impact of suicide attacks in 2018

IEDs Use of Improvised Explosive Devices is most many years. However, as overall security commonly used by the militants across the situation improved, the number of IEDs also globe. As table above shows that highest dropped by 37 percent. 118 people were number of deaths after suicide attacks killed and 309 injured in 87 IED attacks in occurred in IEDs which is consistent trend for 2018. In 2018, Pakistan Army also intensified

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a drive to demine former FATA. At least 65 teams have been working in different parts

of the area. It is observed that IEDs increased in Sindh province compared with 2017 while number of deaths in IEDs also increased in KP though number of IED blast declined marginally (13 in 2018 and 15 in 2017). IEDs Impact of IEDs in different regions and resultant casualties declined in former FATA and 50 Balochistan. Highest number of IEDs and 40 resultant deaths were 30 recorded in FATA while 20 highest number of people injured in Balochistan in 10 IEDs. Following figure shows 0 a comparative analysis. Balochistan FATA KP Punjab Attacks Death Injuries

Physical Militant Assaults

Physical militant assaults including raids and tough task. During last few years, it is ambushes was the third deadliest category observed that capability of the militants to of militant attacks in which 100 people were conduct physical assaults is declining which killed and 84 injured in 51 such incidents. is the major reason of improved security 2018 saw 41 decline in physical assaults, 46 and 48 percent decline in 50 40 resultant deaths and 30 injuries respectively. 20 10 Most of the physical 0 militant assaults were Balochista FATA KP Punjab Sindh n recorded in Balochistan Attacks 29 5 15 1 5 and FATA. This type of Death 50 5 18 2 6 militant activity actually Injuries 20 3 2 2 2 provides a very important assessment tool to analyse their ability to Figure 9: Impact of Physical Assaults in 2018 mobilize with weapons and ammunition in certain areas. Transportation of an IED or situation. suicide vests at certain points may be easier while movement of fully armed militants in the presence of checkpoints everywhere is

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Target-Killing Like other types of militant activities, simplify PICSS recorded killings with gun targeted killings in anti-State violence also shots of one or two targeted persons under dropped by 35 percent while resultant the heading of targeted killings while suicide deaths and injuries dropped by 48 percent. attacks of all nature are recorded under one With the entrance of DAESH in the game, heading. In this context, one can say that analysing target killing is no more a simple situation improved in 2018 considerably. In statistical work. The group used suicide 2016 and 2017 situation had remained same. bombings to target some of the political In 2018, the militants targeted political leaders including Nawab Siraj Raeesani and workers, serving and former police officers, Maulana Abdul Ghafoor Haidari (former died former militants, minorities, religious leaders while the later escaped marginally after of different sects (both Shia and Sunnis), being injured). Haroon Bilor, the young workers of private companies as well as leader of ANP and former Chief Minister and government officials. leader of JUI-F Akram Durrani were targeted with suicide attack and IED blast Region Attacks Death Injuries respectively. PTI leader Ikramullah Balochistan 29 50 20 Gandapur was also killed in a suicide FATA 5 5 3 attack. Keeping in mind complex nature KP 15 18 2 of target-killings one cannot say with Punjab 1 2 2 authority whether the number has Sindh 5 6 2 declined or increased. However, to

Present Status and Evolution of Militant Groups in 2018 Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) their stronghold in North Waziristan. The faced some serious setbacks during the year group had faced major defections in 2014 2018. The group was on the path of revival when at least four groups parted their ways and had started to exert its influence in the including Punjabi Taliban, Sajna Group, tribal belt as well as in other parts of Pakistan Jamat-ul-Ahrar and Shehryar Mehsud Group. in 2017. The group was on the declining path Sajna was the most influential and senior after June 2014 when Pakistani military had commander within TTP and his defection had evicted TTP and other militant groups from badly dented TTP operations in Waziristan

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and adjacent areas. Khan Saeed Sajna had commander, will be able to consolidate his rejoined TTP in late 2016 which boosted leadership or not. Shehryar Mehsud who was strength of the group. The group carried out believed to be Fazlullah’s man and staunch many high-profile suicide attacks in 2017. opponent of Khan Saeed Sajna is still However, in February 2018, Sajna was killed operating independently as TTP Hakeem in a drone strike in Afghanistan which was Mehsud group. Punjabi Taliban group has start of the elimination of top leadership of denounced violence against the Pakistani the group. State while Jamat-ul-Ahrar splinted into two factions. In June 2018, Molvi Fazlullah was also killed in a drone strike. Killing of Fazlullah Just one month after the death of was the biggest blow to TTP in four years as Fazlullah, another key commander of TTP he was the head of the group since Umar Rehman Fateh was also killed in November 2013 after the killing of the then Afghanistan in another US drone strike. Umar head Hakeemullah Mehsud. With the killing was one of the contenders to replace of Fazlullah, the leadership of TTP came back Fazlullah but Mufti Noor wali prevailed. to Waziristan with the appointment of Mufti Noor Wali as new Emir (head) of the group. Pakistan had been demanding from This is an interesting proposition. Only time the United States to target anti-Pakistan will tell whether killing of Fazlullah will be militants hiding in Afghanistan however, the negative or positive for the group. We have US had its own priorities. At one stage it was seen that killing of head of Afghan Taliban seen as if US was somehow supporting anti- Mullah Akhtar Mansoor turned out to be a Pakistan militants when inclusion of Umar blessing in disguise for the group as Khalid Khurasani in UN Security Council’s appointment of Mullah Haibatullah paved sanction list was opposed by the US. way for disgruntled groups and elements to However, a policy shift had started in 2017 join back the main group including Mullah when same Umar Khalid Khurasani was Yaqoob who is son of late Mullah targeted in a US drone strike. In 2018, we Muhammad Umar, the founder of the have seen elimination of Fazlullah, Sajna and Taliban movement. It is a fact that when Umar Rehman Fatih. Was the shift because TTP’s leadership gone out of the hands of of Pakistani’s efforts to bring Afghan Taliban Mehsud tribe from FATA to Fazlullah from on the negotiation table? Swat, the group met with serious leadership During the year 2018, TTP remained challenges. major challenge for Pakistan’s national It is to be seen whether Mufti Noor security as 11 out of 18 reported suicide Wali who, like Mullah Haibatullah, is more of attacks were claimed/attributed to the religious scholar than a field operational group.

Jamat-ul-Ahrar (JuA) The year 2018 saw Jamat-ul-Ahrar than the TTP from October 2014 to October almost disappearing from the scene. Once 2017, however, ever since the drone attack the group was more potent and influential on its head Abdul Wali a.k.a Umar Khalid

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Khurasani the group gradually declined and emergence of mysterious Hizbul Ahrar. almost vanished till the end of 2018. In November 2017, a splinter group Hizbul In 2018, almost all social media Ahrar emerged from Jamat-ul-Ahrar which channels of Jamat-ul-Ahrar disappeared turned out to be a replacement of JuA in from the scene. It was a surprising ‘death’ of militancy theatre. a group which was once the biggest threat to Pakistan’s national security. The group used Jamat-ul-Ahrar is in the list of UN to operate many twitter and telegram Security Council’s proscribed organizations. channels. It is not clear whether the admins However, 2018 saw a little reprieve for the of these channels joined Hizbul Ahrar or organization when United States objected captured by the Pakistani security forces. inclusion of the name of Abdul Wali a.k.a Head of Jamat-ul-Ahrar Abdul Wali often Umar Khalid Khurasani in the UNSC sanctions used to issue statements but in 2018 only list. Pakistan termed the move as double two statements were attributed to him could standards by the UNSC and US. It was seen as be seen while the group did not claim an attempt by the US to arm twist Pakistan. responsibility of any suicide bombings or any However, the group turned out to be almost major attack. irrelevant due to internal rifts and Hazbul Ahrar (HuA), a rebirth of Jamat-ul- Ahrar In November 2017, a senior attacks including an attack against a van of commander of Jamat-ul-Ahrar namely the employees of Pakistan Atomic Energy Mukarram Mohmad announced formation Commission in district Attock of Punjab of Hizbul Ahrar. Many senior commanders of province. Another fact which raises doubt Jamat-ul-Ahrar joined the new group and in about the new group is that within a period 2018, instead of JuA, it was HuA which of one year, the group established its carried out most of the attacks after TTP. The operational presence in Punjab, Sindh, FATA, emergence or formation of HuA is very Balochistan as well as KPK which seems that mysterious. Commander Abdul Wali was too existing operational structure of JuA was strong and influential to be cornered but the shifted to HuA. year 2018 saw negligible presence of his group’s activities. Evidence suggest that Hizbul Ahrar is actually a new name of Jamat-ul-Ahrar The question is that whether the otherwise the group is same and its split in JuA was a genuine split or a concerted ambitions, targets, strategies as well as move by the group to evade UN Security tactics are same. Except Umar Khalid Council Sanctions. Mukarram Mohmand Khorasani, the leadership is also same. Most who is apparently leading HuA is a young likely, Umar Khalid Khorasani is running the man and not as experienced and influential show from behind the scene while as Abdul Wali. It was a surprising Mukarram Mohmand is a new face of the development that instead of JuA, it was HuA group. While not being in the lime light will during 2018 which claimed second highest give Khorasani more time and opportunities number of suicide attacks. The group to plan and execute attacks and promote the claimed responsibility of three suicide group.

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DAESH There are two chapters of the so- rout of Indian IS members to Afghanistan is called Islamic State or DAESH active in this yet not clear. region. Islamic State Khorasan Chapter consists of Afghanistan, FATA, some parts of Kashmiri militants always remained Balochistan and KP and some areas of at a distance from global Jihadi networks. neighbouring Afghanistan. The other chapter The armed struggle is nationalistic in nature which is generally overlooked is IS Hind though inspired by the concept of Jihad Chapter or Wilayat-e-Hind which consist of against occupation. DAESH has for the first mainland Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and time made inroads in Kashmir. Few militants other South Asian countries. Both chapters killed were wrapped in IS flag and buried. At work in complete coordination with each some places IS flags were also seen during other. Hind Chapter generally recruits people public demonstrations. Political leadership as while Khorasan chapter provides training well as militant groups operating in Kashmir facilities. believe that it is Indian intelligence ply to tarnish the image of freedom struggle in During the year 2018, Pakistan saw Kashmir by linking it with terrorism. Indian some of the deadliest suicide attacks claimed Muslims are joining Kashmiri militants (not by the Khorasan Chapter. Two suicide attacks specifically with IS but with different local in Balochistan during the month of July killed militant groups as well). around 180 people which is 66 percent of the total deaths in suicide attacks in the year. Ability of the group in Afghanistan Operational presence of IS-K was observed and Pakistan for carrying out high profile only in Balochistan; however, organizational attacks is ever increasing. The group has presence of the group was traced in some resorted to guerrilla style attacks after its parts of Punjab, Balochistan and Karachi. territorial expansion was halted by US and Afghan forces. It is capable of penetrating More Indian citizens joined IS in high security zone of Afghan capital. Quality 2018. Indian citizens generally remained of attacks and ability to inflict heavy losses is unaffected by global militant groups like Al- improving. Its operations in mainland Qaeda. However, IS got unprecedented Pakistan (except Balochistan), India and response from Indian citizens. Rise of Bangladesh are so far are of low intensity. Extremist Hindus to the power in India More militants from Syria and Iraq are joining coincides with formation of IS in Syria and Khorasan chapter which will further enhance Iraq. Persecution of Muslims and attractive operational capabilities of the group. call of Caliphate lured Indian citizens towards DAESH. Indian citizens especially from Kerala The group professes extremist views State find IS more attractive than any other of Islam. Mostly, Deobandi and Salafi (Ahle- group. At least 54 people from Kerala Joined e-Hadith) school of thought people has IS during past three years. They are also well- joined the group in the region. However, all educated, most are engineers, doctors and major organizations of Deobandi and Ahle-e- MBA degree holder Indian citizens are mostly Hadith in Pakistan have condemned DAESH joining Khorasan Chapter than the core and consider it as a threat to their following. group in Syria or Iraq. The possible launching Ideologically the group’s prospects of growth are bleak however political issues will

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provide the required ground for expansion. Pakistan for terror export but now itself creating fertile ground for expansion of Any weak deal by Taliban with US DAESH in the country. Most of the Jihadi may create ripples within ranks and files of groups associate themselves with political the group which will be an opportunity for issues of Muslims. The issue of Rohingya DAESH to attract field commanders and foot Muslims in Myanmar and strict secularist soldiers. Weakening grip of Afghan regime of Haseena Wajid against Islamic government is providing room for expansion parties like Jamat-e-Islami also coincides of DAESH. Arab and Central Asian fighters are with the rise of DAESH in the country. joining the group in Afghanistan bolstering Afghanistan spillover will keep affecting its operational capabilities Pakistan and growing presence of DAESH in bordering provinces of Afghanistan creating Former members of Indian serious security challenges for Pakistan. Mujahideen and SIMI may also regroup in Sectarian fault lines are increasing in Pakistan the form of DAESH. India used to blame and DAESH always flourishes on that. Al-Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) in 2018 No major attack has been claimed by associate of mastermind of Safoora Goth AQIS during the year. The group provides attack in which around 50 people of a strategic guidance to the local militant minority sect were killed on a bus attack. groups as well as promotes and provides Senior Police Officer SSP Omar Shahid Hamid required ideological thinking behind the said the held suspect was an IT expert who ongoing militancy in the region. Even AQIS had completed a diploma in computer central does not operate like TTP or other science from a private IT institute in Gulshan- militant groups who carry out attacks on e-Iqbal and graduated from a private college daily, weekly or monthly basis. AQ style is to in DHA. carry out one major attack with large scale impact. The failed attack AQIS was involved While the AQIS was split in 2013 in 2014 was to seize a Pakistani Naval ship when Saad Aziz, Tahir Sain and others joined and attack on US military ships in the region the militant Islamic State (IS) group and which was foiled at the last moment. massacred members of the Ismaili community, Ahsan Mehsud remained It cannot be ruled out that AQIS may associated with AQIS, said SSP Omar. The be planning any similar kind of high-profile senior officer believed that Ahsan had come attack but so far, the group is silent on to Karachi to form a new cell of AQIS to target operational front but more active in law enforcers and members of other propaganda front. communities on sectarian grounds after an older network of the militants, which had In March 2018, counter terrorism launched a series of attacks on law enforcers department arrested a senior AQIS in 2015, had been dismantled. His brother, commander from Karachi who was planning Ali Mehsud alias Maaz runs a militant to carry out big attack. Identified as Ahsan network in Wadh, Balochistan while his Mehsud alias Roshan remained close uncle, Hasan Mehsud is also an active

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member of the AQIS, the officer said. 2018 in Nangarhar province. He served as a senior commander for both al Qaeda in the AQIS was also running a bomb- Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and the making factory, which was captured and Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan (TTP). neutralized during the said operation in He was active on both sides of the border. March. Investigations revealed that the network of AQIS is spread from Karachi to Another AQIS commander North Waziristan and in parts of Balochistan. Anayatullah Brohi was also arrested in March 2018 from Karachi. AQIS is also active in Afghanistan. One of its senior commander Hazrat Abbas was killed by US military airstrike in May Majeed Brigade, the elite unit of BLA The attack on Chinese Consulate in bombing in the on-going insurgency was Karachi on 23rd November 2018 was claimed done on 30th December 2011 when a car by a militant group Balochistan Liberation bomb attack exploded near the house of Army (BLA). Spokesman of BLA Jehand former state minister Mir Naseer Mengal in Baloch said that the attack was carried out by Quetta. In this attack, 13 people were killed, Fidayeen Majeed Brigade. After his claim, a and 30 others were injured. Baloch lot of queries have been received at PICSS Liberation Army (then under Hyrbyair Marri) and people have been searching the internet claimed the responsibility for the attack. The to know more about the Majeed Brigade. suicide attack was carried out by Darwaish Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Baloch, who was also associated with the Studies (PICSS) tasked its field Majeed Brigade. The suicide bombing in correspondents in different parts of 2011 shows that Majeed Brigade was formed Balochistan to collect information available right after the death of Majeed Baloch in on the ground and send a detailed report. 2010. PICSS also gathered information from social media accounts of Baloch militants. A brief The group had posted a training summary of what we found about Majeed video of the elite unit on different social Brigade is given below; media platforms in 2013 which shows some glimpses of the level of guerrilla fighting Majeed Baloch was a Baloch militant training BLA fighters get in training camps. in 1970s who was involved in an attempt on Some sources in the Pakistani security forces the life of the then Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali claimed that the training camp for Majeed Bhutto. He was killed by the security forces. Brigade is in Afghanistan and the area in the Another Majeed Baloch emerged as a key video is also its training camp in Afghanistan. BLA commander in recent rebellion. Majeed However, it cannot be independently verified Baloch Junior was killed in 2010 by the where exactly the video was shot. security forces. The BLA raised a special unit after his name. The exact date of formation Currently, Majeed Brigade is headed of the unit is not known but at least it was by a notorious BLA commander Aslam formed before 2011 when the group claimed Baloch also known as Aslam Achu who is a suicide bombing. The first use of suicide reportedly hiding in Afghanistan under the

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protection of Afghan Intelligence NDS. Aslam been living in London until 2017. He may still Achu was severely injured in an encounter be living in London however, PICSS cannot with Pakistani security forces back in 2016 in verify that. Sibbi district however, he managed to flee and later went to Afghanistan through Iran. Armed militants of BLA are present Reportedly, he has obtained a fake Afghan in remote mountains of Zhob, Sibbi, Musa passport to travel abroad especially India. Khel, Nokundi, Dalbandin and Panjgoor areas According to PICSS sources, Aslam Baloch of Balochistan. The group is also very much had fled to Iran and went to Afghanistan active in Makran division. Its sleeper cells are through Afghanistan from where he went to active in almost all major cities of Pakistan New Delhi for treatment of his injuries in a however; its clout in Karachi is much more private hospital Max Health Care. than any other part of the country. The group enjoys sympathies and support of a segment After his treatment, Aslam Baloch of Baloch society, which helps the group to came back to Afghanistan and now managing keep itself alive. Apart from obtaining funds the suicide bombings and special attacks by from India and Afghanistan, the group is also BLA under the banner of ‘Fidayeen Majeed funded by a segment of Baloch businessmen. Brigade’. He is reportedly operating from Qandahar, Afghanistan. Complete name of Apart from Aslam Achu or Aslam Achu is Takari Muhammad Aslam and he is other major commanders of Majeed Brigade the son of Rahim Dad. include Bashir Zaib, Noor Buksh Mengal, Karim Marri, Captain Rehman Gul, Targeting Chinese interests is the Commander Nisar, Commander Gaindi, prime task given to Majeed Brigade by BLA commander Shaikhu, commander Sharif, leadership. The focus of Aslam Baloch commander Hamal, commander Munshi, against Chinese interests can be gauged from Agha Sher Dil and others. the fact that he sent his elder son Rehan Baloch as a suicide bomber against Chinse In a video message posted on You Engineers in Dalbandin area in August 2018. Tube, Aslam Baloch alleges that Chinese Sending son of a major commander for government is helping Pakistan fighting suicide bombing has given a boost to the against Baloch militants. He also alleged that dying morale of the group, which has been Chinese government provided spying dented heavily by recent surrenders by its equipment to Pakistani security forces to fighters and commanders. It is worth noting track down Baloch militants. He accuses that that around 3000 Baloch militants from Chinese are building their military basis on different groups have surrendered in recent the entire coastal line of Balochistan. years and they are being rehabilitated in the During collecting information about society. Majeed Brigade and BLA activities, it was Baloch Liberation Army is headed revealed that BLA has safe havens in Iran too. Harybiyar Murri, who is 5th son of late Khair Most of the injured fighters of BLA and other Bakhsh Murri an anti-Pakistan tribal leader. anti-Pakistan groups are treated in Iran while Harbiyar lives in Europe and enjoys the they also use Iranian territory to plan and patronage of anti-Pakistani forces. He had execute attacks inside Pakistani territory and the flee back.

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Nationwide Security Forces Response

Substantial reduction in security suspected militants were killed, and 102 forces actions was monitored in 2018 as suspects were apprehended. Security forces compared to 2017 as only 177 security forces conducted 41 operations/ actions in actions were reported in which 97 suspected Balochistan in which 41 suspected militants militants were killed and four people were killed and 123 suspects were arrested. including two militants and two civilians Security forces actions in Punjab were injured. Security forces also arrested as outnumbered operations in KPK and FATA as many as 102 suspected militants in these 38 operations were reported from Punjab, 27 operations. 18 security forces personnel lost in KPK and 17 in erstwhile FATA region. Two their lives in these operations while 21 security forces actions were reported in others were injured. This reduction in Gilgit-Baltistan and one in Islamabad Capital security forces action was primarily due to Territory. Notably, security forces had completion of military operations and launched operation Radd-ul-Fassad in the reduction in militant activities. The highest country on 22 February 2017 to number of security forces actions were “indiscriminately eliminating the reported in Sindh where Rangers led ‘residual/latent threat of terrorism’, operation is still ongoing without any consolidating the gains made in other indication/ words from relevant quarters military operations” and majority of security regarding its completion/ logical conclusion. forces actions reported in 2018 were In these 51 security forces actions, 12 attributed to this operation.

Table 5: Regional distribution of SFAs in 2018

Killed Injured Arst Region Nos SFP RZ M C Total SFP RZ M C Total Balochistan 41 6 0 41 0 47 11 0 2 2 15 123 FATA 17 11 0 25 0 36 0 0 0 0 0 3 GB 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 ICT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 KPK 27 0 0 8 0 8 7 0 0 0 7 20 Punjab 38 0 0 11 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 99 Sindh 51 1 0 12 0 13 3 0 0 0 3 102 Total 177 18 0 97 0 115 21 0 2 2 25 360

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PROVINCIAL SECURITY PROFILE Security Situation in Balochistan

Balochistan continued to remain one killed, and 70 others were injured in a suicide of the worst affected regions of the country in 2018 as the province witnessed highest number of attacks as compared to other regions. When compared with 2017, the province witnessed a substantial reduction in militant attacks as 99 militant attacks were recorded this year as compared to 183 militant attacks in 2017 suggesting an almost 46 percent reduction in attacks. However, sorry state of affair was the higher percentage of killings and injuries resulting from these comparatively lesser attacks as these 99 militant attacks caused 354 killings and injuries to 570 others against 308 killings and bombing outside a polling station in Quetta. 572 injured in 183 militant attacks in 2017. This attack was also claimed by Daesh. This suggested that militant attacks in 2018 Among those killed in militants in were comparatively more lethal. Highest Balochistan, 67 percent were civilians, 24 number of attacks in the province were percent security forces personnel and nine witnessed in January when militants carried percent militants while among those injured, out 19 attacks while the month of April, June 75 percent were civilians and 25 percent and July witnessed 12, 10 and 11 militant were security forces personnel thus the attacks, respectively. As shown in Table-6 and province presented almost mirror image in Figure-10, July was the worst month in terms terms of type of killings (in percentage) as of deaths and injuries as 194 people (almost those among killed in 2017, 68 percent were 55 percent of total) were killed and 301 civilians and 27 percent were security forces others (almost 53 percent of total) were personnel while among the injured 77 injured during this month when general percent were civilians and 23 percent were elections were being held in the country. This security forces. Also continuing with the included a gruesome attack, claimed by previous trend, the province witnessed Daesh, in Mastung district when a suicide highest number of suicide attacks as bomber donated himself up targeting a compared to other regions as 11 out of 18 political rally/meeting. Among those killed in suicide attacks recorded in 2018 were carried the blast was Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) out in Balochistan. As shown in Table-7, the candidate Mir Siraj Raisani who was the province also witnessed 32 IED attacks, 29 younger brother of former provincial chief incidents of targeted killings, 19 physical minister Mir Aslam Raisani. Similarly, on the assaults, seven grenade attacks, and one election day, i.e. 25 July, 31 people were rocket attack. Out of 55 total incidents of

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targeted killings in the country, 29 such killed five of them; suicide attack on 4 June incidents in Balochistan alone indicate the at a check post on Karachi-Quetta Highway poor state of law & order and indirectly in Mastung killing three SFPs and injuring indicate poor policing or lack of it. Similarly, two others; killing of six SFPs in a rocket 19 out of 51 physical assaults were reported attack on 2 July in Mashkay area of Awaran from Balochistan suggesting that militants district; suicide attack on political felt it expedient to opt for such attacks gathering in Mastung killing 149 people considering fragile security environment. and injuring 186 others on 13 July; killing of Provincial capital Quetta four people including three army continued to remain the worst affected personnel and injuring of 10 others in district with 36 militant attacks followed by Buleda area of Kech district on 24 July in an Kech (formerly Turbat) district where 15 attack on polling station; suicide attack on militant attacks were reported. Detailed a polling station in Quetta killing 25 people break of affected districts is given in Table- and injuring 70 others on 25 July; suicide 8 which suggests that militants not only attack on a bus on 11 August in Dalbandin created troubles in Pashtun dominated area of Chagi district injuring six people districts, but they were also active in including three Chinese engineers; attack Baloch dominated areas. Some of the on assistant commissioner in Pishin killing notable militant attacks in Balochistan three FC personnel on 14 September; included suicide attack on an FC check-post killing of five SFPs and injuring of eight in Baleli area of Quetta on 2 January others in IED blast in Pirandar area of injuring 12 SFPs; suicide attack near GPO Awaran district on 2 October; attack on Chowk in Quetta on 9 January killing seven convey of Inspector General of Frontier people and injuring 17 others; assault on Corps in Washuk district killing two SFPs FC convey in Shapok area of Kech district and injuring three others on 25 October; on 15 January killing five SFPs and injuring killing of five construction workers and six others; assault on FC convey in Sariab injuring three in an attack near Ganz area area of Quetta on 14 February killing four of Jewani town in Gwadar district on 31 SFPs; killing of four members of Christian October; targeted killing of retired Deputy family in Quetta on 2 April; three Inspector General of Police Naeem Kakar in coordinated suicide attacks on security Quetta on 17 November; killing of three FC forces in various parts of Quetta on 24 April personnel and inuring of four others in an killing six policemen and injuring 16 others IED blast in Margat area of Quetta on 18 including eight FC men; killing of six November; and killing of six FC personnel labourers in Kharan district on 4 May; and injuring of 14 others in an attack on FC coordinated but failed suicide attack with convey in Wakai area of Kech district on 14 five suicide bombers on FC Madadgar December. centre in Quetta on 17 May in which forces

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Table 6: Monthly break up of militant Attacks in Balochistan - 2018

Killed Injured Month Nos M Arst Kdnp SFP RZ M C Total SFP RZ M C Total January 19 17 0 5 9 31 42 0 0 26 68 0 0 February 4 10 0 1 3 14 8 0 0 1 9 0 0 March 8 3 0 1 11 15 8 0 0 7 15 0 0 April 12 7 0 3 14 24 13 0 0 15 28 0 0 May 8 2 0 7 8 17 8 0 0 20 28 0 0 June 10 5 0 7 4 16 13 0 0 10 23 0 0 July 11 15 0 1 178 194 2 0 0 299 301 0 0 August 7 0 0 2 1 3 12 0 0 32 44 0 0 September 4 5 0 0 4 9 1 0 0 4 5 0 0 October 8 10 0 0 5 15 13 0 0 3 16 0 0 November 3 4 0 0 0 4 4 0 0 9 13 0 0 December 5 8 0 4 0 12 16 0 0 4 20 0 0 Total 99 86 0 31 237 354 140 0 0 430 570 0 0

Figure 10: Monthly Comparison of Militant Attacks in Balochistan and their impact

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150

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50 0

Nos Deaths Injuries

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Figure 11: Yearly Comparison of Militant Attacks in Balochistan since 2011

1600 1400

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200 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 No of Attacks Deaths Injuries

Table 7: Type of Attacks in Balochistan in 2018

Killed Injured Type Nos M Arst Kdnp SFP RZ M C Total SFP RZ M C Total GrA 7 0 0 0 4 4 3 0 0 42 45 0 0 IED 32 19 0 0 18 37 50 0 0 82 132 0 0 MA 19 23 0 14 8 45 31 0 0 8 39 0 0 RA 1 6 0 0 0 6 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 SA 11 24 0 12 176 212 49 0 0 283 332 0 0 TK 29 14 0 5 31 50 5 0 0 15 20 0 0 Total 99 86 0 31 237 354 140 0 0 430 570 0 0

Table 8: Affected districts in Balochistan in 2018

Killed Injured District Nos M Arst Kdnp SFP RZ M C Total SFP RZ M C Total Awaran 2 11 0 0 0 11 10 0 0 0 10 0 0 Chaghi 3 0 0 0 3 3 2 0 0 25 27 0 0 Dera Bugti 5 0 0 0 8 8 0 0 0 10 10 0 0 Gwadar 5 2 0 0 6 8 9 0 0 5 14 0 0 Kachhi 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 Kalat 2 1 0 0 1 2 6 0 0 0 6 0 0 Kech 15 17 0 6 5 28 25 0 0 15 40 0 0 Kharan 2 0 0 0 6 6 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 Kohlu 4 1 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 2 4 0 0 Mastung 3 3 0 2 149 154 5 0 0 186 191 0 0 Nasirabad 3 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 20 27 0 0

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Nushki 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 15 0 0 Panjgur 1 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pishin 2 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 Qilla Abdullah 7 0 0 0 1 1 9 0 0 34 43 0 0 Qilla Saifullah 3 2 0 0 7 9 1 0 0 6 7 0 0 Quetta 36 43 0 18 47 108 56 0 0 107 163 0 0 Sibi 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Washuk 1 2 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 Zhob 1 0 0 6 0 6 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 Total 99 86 0 32 237 355 140 0 0 430 570 0 0

Security forces conducted at least 41 killed the alleged mastermind of Mastung operations in the province in which 41 attack Hidayatullah Mufti, during an suspected militants were killed while 15 operation in Kalat district. Hidayatullah was others were injured while 123 suspected leading a group of operatives of Daesh/ militants were arrested. Six security forces Islamic State. personnel also lost their lives in these Although the state continued its operations while 11 others were injured. Two policy of seeking surrender of the militants in civilians were also injured in these Balochistan but this time the scale of operations. While security forces conducted surrender of Baloch insurgents was operations against various brands of comparatively less as only 265 militants militants, the prime focus remained on including commanders surrendered in militants belonging to sectarian outfits like September and 70 militants in November Laskher-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) and its international 2018 while 560 militants surrendered on 2 wing (LeJ Al Almi). In a positive development, January 2019. Those laid down their arms Counter Terrorism Department of Police was including militants belonging to Baloch seen active in the province as some of the Liberation Army (BLA), Baloch Republican operations in the province against sectarian Army (BRA) and the Lashkar-i-Balochistan. outfits were carried out either directly by The provincial government, under the CTD or through joint efforts of CTD and FC. reconciliation package, distributed half a Although targeted killings of Hazara Shia million rupees to each commander, community has not completely stopped but Rs250,000 to each sub-commander, and considerably reduced due to focus of Rs100,000 to each militant who laid down security forces to arrest sectarian militants. the weapons and decided to join hands with This time policemen remained the prime the government. In 2017, more than 2000 focus of target killers particularly in militants had surrendered and entered provincial capital Quetta. Security forces also mainstream after laying their arms.

Security Situation in erstwhile FATA

Security situation in erstwhile FATA which 109 people were killed and 151 region improved substantially in 2018 as others were injured against 102 militant the region witnessed 66 militant attacks in attacks in the year 2017 in which 339

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people were killed and 614 others were The highest number of militant injured. Thus, there has been almost 35 attacks with consequential human losses percent reduction in militant attacks, 68 was reported in November when 13 percent reduction in resultant deaths and militant attacks were reported (see Table- 75 percent reduction in those injured. 9) in which 49 people were killed and 50 Highest number of militant attacks were others were injured. Majority of these reported from North Waziristan where 23 deaths and injuries were inflicted on attacks were reported in which 33 people civilians. IED based attacks were the were killed and 56 others were injured preferred mode of attacks as almost 58 followed by 14 attacks in Mohmand and 13 percent of total attacks in FATA were IED attacks in Bajaur. Eight militant attacks based (38 out of 66) while more than 24 were reported in Khyber, three each in percent attacks were physical assaults (16 Kurram and Orakzai and two attacks in out of 66). Five incidents of targeted South Waziristan. Detailed agency wise list killings, three rocket attacks, and two also given in Table-11. Three militant grenade attacks were also reported in FATA attacks in Orakzai were comparatively (Table-10). Despite the fact that there is no more lethal as 35 people (all civilians) were organised presence of militants in any part killed and 56 others (all civilians) were of FATA after they were wiped out in injured. This included a highly damaging successful operation Zarb-e-Azb, they still Daesh claimed apparently a sectarian have presence largely due to their ability to nature of attack to whom majority of sneak into Pakistani territory due to porous deaths and injuries are attributed. Militant border with Afghanistan though attacks in North Waziristan were more or government of Pakistan has stepped up less targeted at security forces as 16 out of efforts for border fencing, which is 33 killed were security forces and 35 out of believed to be completed in 2019. Despite 56 injured were security forces personnel. on-and-off militant attacks in various parts Overall, 57 percent of those killed in FATA of FATA, normal life is returning to the were civilians, 27 percent security forces region and district administration in North personnel, 15 percent militants and two Waziristan by the end of the 2018 decided percent razakars. Among the injured, 52 to allowing entry of locals as well as non- percent were civilians, 46 percent security locals without permission while previously forces personnel and two percent seeking permission of non-locals to enter militants. North Waziristan was mandatory.

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Figure 12: Monthly Comparison of Militant attacks in FATA and their impact

60 50

30 20 10

Nos Deaths Injuries

Table 9: Monthly break-up of militant Attacks in FATA

Killed Injured Month Nos Kdnp SFP RZ M C Total SFP RZ M C Total January 5 1 0 0 6 7 3 0 0 1 4 0 February 5 0 0 0 3 3 1 0 0 4 5 0 March 7 1 0 0 4 5 3 0 0 3 6 3 April 5 4 0 3 4 11 24 0 0 0 24 0 May 8 2 0 0 2 4 3 0 0 3 6 0 June 4 4 0 5 1 10 6 0 0 0 6 0 July 2 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 10 10 0 August 2 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 3 6 0 September 3 2 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 5 6 0 October 10 5 0 7 1 13 15 0 3 7 25 0 November 13 7 0 1 41 49 10 0 0 40 50 0 December 2 2 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 2 3 0 Total 66 29 2 16 62 109 70 0 3 78 151 3

Table 10: Type of Attacks in FATA in 2017

Killed Injured Type Nos M Arst Kdnp SFP RZ M C Total SFP RZ M C Total GrA 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 15 0 0 IED 38 13 0 0 50 63 47 0 0 56 103 0 0 MA 18 11 2 16 10 39 21 0 3 4 28 0 3 RA 3 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 TK 5 3 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 Total 66 29 2 16 62 109 70 0 3 78 151 0 3

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Figure 13: Yearly Comparison of Militant Attacks in FATA since 2011

1400

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400 200

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

No of Attacks Deaths Injuries

Table 11: Affected Agencies/ districts in FATA in 2017

Killed Injured Agency Nos M Arst Kdnp SFP RZ M C Total SFP RZ M C Total Bajaur 13 1 0 1 7 9 7 0 0 4 11 0 0 Khyber 8 1 2 0 1 4 4 0 0 9 13 0 0 Kurram 3 3 0 0 6 9 13 0 0 1 14 0 0 Mohmand 14 5 0 3 4 12 6 0 0 6 12 0 3 NWA 23 16 0 12 5 33 35 0 3 18 56 0 0 Orakzai 3 0 0 0 35 35 0 0 0 40 40 0 0 SWA 2 3 0 0 4 7 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 Total 66 29 2 16 62 109 70 0 3 78 151 0 3

Post operation, rehabilitation of being reported now and then. While temporary displaced persons (TDPs) in FATA returning to normal life will definitely take region is in final stage as 322915 families time, relevant institutions have made have returned to their homes by 19 notable gains in construction work and December 2018 while 16136 families are yet various roads, hospitals, schools, markets, to return. Out of these 16,136 families, etc. either have already been completed or 15017 belong to North Waziristan and 1119 in the final stages. On constitutional and belong to Khyber district/agency. political front, erstwhile FATA region has Notwithstanding the socio-economic been merged with KPK through 25th challenges, inhabitants are facing security Constitutional amendment bill after its challenges particularly the fear of landmines passage from National Assembly, Senate and as the military has, so far, been able to clear KPK provincial assembly and was signed by only 44 percent of area from the landmine the President on 31 May 2018. As per the and the incidents of landmine blasts are amendment, tribal agencies have been

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renamed as districts that were to be make efforts to finalise 3pc allocation from administrated by existing structure of deputy provincial and federal shares in the National commissioners. However, due to Finance Commission for the erstwhile Fata. intervention of Peshawar High Court, who In order to provide legal cover to the nullified Fata Interim Governance Regulation transition period and ownership of the striking down practice of giving judicial province in the merger process, the meeting powers to these administrative officials, a decided to promulgate governance law for legal vacuum was created as neither legal the interim period within one month. A infrastructure of civil/ district courts could be recent judgement by the Peshawar High established in the tribal districts nor the Court striking down the Fata Interim amendment provided any transitional period Governance Regulation led to a legal vacuum for the same. On political front, Election in the settled tribal districts. KP filed a review Commission of Pakistan has recently issued petition in the Supreme Court which in its the initial delimitation list of erstwhile ruling on Monday gave the government six FATA in which it proposed the addition of 16 months to take appropriate steps to seats to KPK from the eight newly- introduce a proper judicial system in the constituted districts. According to the area. The meeting decided to establish proposed delimitation, three seats each have courts in the erstwhile Fata within one year. been suggested from Bajaur and Khyber While the SC has given six months to districts; two seats each from Kurrum, establish court, government is confident that Mohmand, South Waziristan and North the apex court may grant further extension Waziristan districts; while one each from owing to the multiple complex issues. In the Orakzai and Frontier Region districts.1 This meantime, platforms for dispute resolution process is likely to be completed in March and grievance redressal would be paving way for holding provincial assembly established based on age-old tradition to elections in these areas possibly in May or benefit the people, should they ask for it. In June. Similarly, local government elections in the meeting, it was decided to fill 2,200 erstwhile FATA region are likely to be held vacant posts of Levies and their training in simultaneously with rest of the province. accordance with the police criteria within On 31 December, the federal, Punjab three to six months. Police would move and KPK governments have agreed to share inside the tribal districts in a sequential their resources from the divisible pool to manner within one year with soft to hard fund the erstwhile FATA. The meeting chaired approach. DSPs, inspectors and sub- by Prime Minister Imran Khan decided that inspectors would all be inducted into the Punjab and KP along with the Centre would police from the erstwhile Fata within one provide three per cent of their share from year while “Police, prisons and prosecution the federal divisible pool to fund the specific should move in a sequential manner,” the requirements of the erstwhile Fata. In the minutes read.2 meanwhile, the federal government would Security forces conducted as many

1 https://www.dawn.com/news/1455058/ecp- 2 proposes-addition-of-16-seats-to-kp-assembly- https://www.dawn.com/news/1455618/centre- from-erstwhile-fata punjab-and-kp-to-share-resources-to-fund- erstwhile-fata

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as 17 notable actions/ operations in which 25 of Pashtun Tahafaz Movement (PTM) whom suspected militants were killed while 11 military establishment considered to be security forces personnel also laid down their supported by external powers (the lives. Three other suspects were also perception was not entirely misplaced as arrested. In the absence of civilian law Afghanistan has shown keen interest in the enforcement infrastructure in FATA, military movement) and initially tried to deal it with is facing serious challenge of dealing with law iron hand but soon the sense prevailed and & order issues as local population, the military was able to realise that the issue particularly in North and South Waziristan, is highlighted by the PTM are genuine hence showing resentment over presence of softening of tone was witnessed. security check posts, restriction of free movement, presence of landmines, etc. In addition, the issue of missing persons is creating resentment among the locals. These issues are being highlighted at the platform

NOTE: Despite passage of constitutional amendment of merging FATA with KPK, PICSS kept treating/ depicting FATA and KPK separately for better understanding of the security environment.

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Security Situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK)

Further improvement in security situation was people while 62 others were injured in a suicide observed in KPK as the province witnessed 40 attack in Peshawar while an ex- provincial militant attacks in which 72 people were killed minister and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf candidate and 174 others were injured during 2018 against Ikramullah Khan Gandapur was killed in a suicide 75 militant attacks in the year 2017 in which 92 attack in DI Khan. Similarly, two attempts at the people were killed and 175 others were injured. life of former Chief Minister and ex-minister Thus, there has been 47 percent reduction in Akram Khan Durrani were also carried out. militant attacks but resultant change on deaths Overall, four suicide attacks were carried out in and injuries were not that proportional being the province including one at an army camp in only 22 percent and one percent, respectively. Swat valley in which 11 army soldiers were killed highest number of militant attacks along with and injured 13 were injured while a suicide highest number of deaths and injuries were attack in Nowshera on FC vehicle injuring 10 reported in July at the time of general elections people including six security forces personnel. when the province witnessed eight militant After witnessing an upsurge in militant attacks attacks in which 32 people were killed and 111 during election period, security situation in the others were injured. In this election related province improved as reduction in violence was violence, Awami National Party candidate observed in the province. Haroon Bilor was killed along with 20 other

Figure 14: Monthly Comparison of militant attacks in KPK - 2018

120

100

Nos Deaths Injuries

In addition to four suicide attacks, the province witnessed 15 incidents of target killings,

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13 IED based attacks, five physical assaults, and in southern districts like Bannu, DI Khan, Karak one incident each of grenade attack, intra- and Lakki Marwat while central districts of militant clash and kidnapping. As shown in Table- Peshawar, Nowshera and Mardan and Kohat 13, DI Khan district outnumbered provincial witnessed 14 attacks including 11 in Peshawar capital Peshawar in number of attacks as the alone. Northern districts of Chitral, Lower Dir and former witnessed 13 militant attacks as Swat witnessed one militant attack each while no compared to 11 noticed in the latter. More than militant attack was reported in whole of Hazara 50 percent of total attacks in KPK were reported division. Table 12: Monthly break-up of militant Attacks in KPK - 2018

Killed Injured Month Nos Kdnp SFP RZ M C Total SFP RZ M C Total January 1 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 February 6 12 0 2 2 16 13 0 0 5 18 0 March 2 3 0 1 0 4 3 0 0 8 11 0 April 2 1 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 4 0 May 7 2 0 1 2 5 10 0 0 8 18 0 June 2 3 0 0 1 4 2 0 0 0 2 0 July 8 3 0 2 27 32 2 0 0 109 111 0 August 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 September 3 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 October 6 1 0 0 3 4 1 0 0 7 8 0 November 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 December 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 40 25 0 8 39 72 37 0 0 137 174 0

Figure 15: Yearly Comparison of Militant Attacks in KPK since 2011

1800

1600

1400

1200 1000 800 600 400

200

0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

No of Attacks Deaths Injuries

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Table 13: Type of Attacks in KPK in 2018

Killed Injured Type Nos M Arst Kdnp SFP RZ M C Total SFP RZ M C Total GrA 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 8 10 0 0 IED 13 7 0 3 5 15 10 0 0 55 65 0 0 K 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 MA 5 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 1 5 0 0 MC 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 SA 4 12 0 4 22 38 21 0 0 70 91 0 0 TK 15 6 0 0 12 18 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 Total 40 25 0 8 39 72 37 0 0 137 174 0 2

Table 14: Affected Districts of KPK in 2018

Killed Injured District Nos M Arst Kdnp SFP RZ M C Total SFP RZ M C Total Bannu 7 1 0 0 6 7 2 0 0 51 53 0 0 Chitral 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DI Khan 13 10 0 5 2 17 9 0 0 14 23 0 2 Karak 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 Kohat 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lakki Marwat 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 Lower Dir 1 2 0 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 Mardan 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nowshera 1 0 0 1 0 1 6 0 0 4 10 0 0 Peshawar 11 1 0 1 28 30 3 0 0 67 70 0 0 Swat 1 11 0 1 0 12 13 0 0 0 13 0 0 Total 40 25 0 8 39 72 37 0 0 137 174 0 2

Security forces conducted 27 CTD has become quite effective in the operations in KPK in which eight suspected province. In October, Pakistan Army formally militants were killed while seven security handed over administrative control of Swat to forces were also injured. At least 20 suspected the civil government after restoring peace and militants were arrested in these operations. establishing writ of the government after 11 Most of these operations were conducted by years. Counter Terrorism Department of Police as

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Security Situation in Punjab

A reduction in militant attacks was people, including five policemen, were killed and observed in Punjab during 2018 as the province 20 others injured when a suicide bomber tried to witnessed five militant attacks in which 17 enter a religious gathering in Raiwind but people were killed and 42 others were injured. In stopped by the police. In the latter attack, three 2017, Punjab had witnessed 15 militant attacks people were killed, and 18 others injured when in which 59 people were killed and 208 others militants attacked a bus of National Defence were injured. Thus, substantial improvement in Complex (NDC) in Attock district. security situation was observed in Punjab as Security forces conducted 38 operations previously militants were able to carry out strikes in the province in which 11 suspected militants very on-and-off. One militant attack each was were killed and nine others were apprehended. reported in March, May and July while two Majority of these operations were conducted by attacks were reported in December. Out of these the CTD. In September, CTD after a long five militant attacks, two were suicide attacks, intelligence-based work also busted a network of two militant physical assaults and one incident of TTP Hizbul Ahrar – a splinter group of TTP Jamat targeted killing. Two suicide attacks in the ul Ahrar – who had planned and executed the province clearly suggest that the province suicide attack on NDC bus in Attock and was continued to remain the focus of the militants about to launch an attack on a bus of intelligence but they could not have desired penetration agency. It was almost a four-month long primarily due to two reasons: one, counter- intelligence-based work of the CTD that terrorism department (CTD) of police was seen culminated in arrest of five militants. In addition, quite effective in the province as numerous CTD also arrested militants belonging to various attempts of carrying out attacks were thwarted militant outfits including TTP, LeJ, Jamat ul Ahrar by CTD across the width and breadth of the and Daesh/ IS. PICSS strongly believes that province; two, militants coming from effective policing and capacity building of its Afghanistan as well as KPK/FATA could neither intelligence setup is pivotal for fighting terrorism been to easily mingle with local population nor in the country and counter-terrorism could have required support base. One suicide department of Punjab police filling this gap is attack was reported in Raiwind Lahore while the good omen. other in Attock. In the former, at least nine

Table 15: Monthly break up of militant attacks in Punjab and their human impact

Killed Injured Month Nos Kdnp SFP RZ M C Total SFP RZ M C Total March 1 6 0 1 4 11 6 0 0 13 19 0 May 1 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 18 18 0 July 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 December 2 1 0 1 1 3 2 0 1 2 5 0 Total 5 7 0 2 8 17 8 0 1 33 42 0

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Table 16: Type of Attacks in Punjab in 2018

Killed Injured Type Nos M Arst Kdnp SFP RZ M C Total SFP RZ M C Total MA 2 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 1 0 3 0 0 SA 2 6 0 1 7 14 6 0 0 31 37 0 0 TK 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 Total 5 7 0 2 8 17 8 0 1 33 42 0 0

Table 17: Affected Districts of Sindh in 2018

Killed Injured District Nos M Arst Kdnp SFP RZ M C Total SFP RZ M C Total Attock 2 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 18 18 0 0 DG Khan 1 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 1 0 3 0 0 Lahore 1 6 0 1 4 11 6 0 0 13 19 0 0 Rawalpindi 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 Total 5 7 0 2 8 17 8 0 1 33 42 0 0

Security Situation in Sindh

The trend of improvement in security TTP. Notable attacks in Sindh included attack by situation in Sindh, since 2014, continued in 2018 three heavily armed men on Chinese consulate as further reduction in militant attacks was in Clifton area of Karachi; killing of a Chinese observed in Sindh during 2018. The year worker and injuring of a local in targeted killing witnessed 15 militant attacks in which 22 people incident in Lalazar area in Karachi; attack on were killed and 20 others were injured. Except Rangers patrolling party killing one personnel three militant attacks in Hyderabad district, and injuring three others in Lyari; and targeted remaining 12 attacks were reported from killing of former MQM leader and ex-MNA Syed provincial capital Karachi. Among these 15 Ali Raza Abidi in DHA neighbourhood. As shown militant attacks, five were incidents of targeted in Table-18, five militant attacks were reported in killings, four IED based attacks, two cracker last two months of the year suggesting an attacks, three physical assaults and one suicide upward trend in violence in otherwise much attack though there were some question marks improved security situation in Pakistan’s regarding suicide attack as former SSP Rao financial capital. However, street crimes in the Anwar, who got notoriety for his involvement in metropolitan are yet to be controlled largely due fake police encounter killing Naqeebullah to ineffectiveness of the police force, which Mehsud, claimed that his party came under continues to remain under political influence, suicide attack but the attack was also claimed by lacking capacity and professionalism.

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Figure 16: Monthly comparison of militant attacks in Sindh

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Attacks Deaths Injuries

Table 18: Monthly break up of militant attacks in Sindh and their human impact

Killed Injured Month Nos Kdnp SFP RZ M C Total SFP RZ M C Total January 3 1 0 3 1 5 0 0 0 1 1 0 February 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 March 1 1 0 1 0 2 3 0 0 0 3 0 May 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 June 2 0 0 1 1 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 July 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 August 2 0 0 1 1 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 November 2 2 0 3 4 9 0 0 0 9 9 0 December 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 0 Total 15 4 0 8 10 22 5 0 0 15 20 0

Security forces conducted at least 51 (SRA) to take arms but effective actions notable operations in Sindh in which 12 somehow controlled the situation before it could suspected militants were killed and 102 others raise its ugly head. Notably, three militant attacks were apprehended while one security forces were also reported in Hyderabad. In Karachi, personnel lost his life while three others were security forces believe that MQM-London’s injured. Out of these 51 operations, 41 were leadership with support from Indian Research conducted in Karachi while 10 were conducted in and Analysis Wing is trying to whipping up sub- rest of the province. Out of these 10 operations, nationalist sentiments to create ethnic division five were reported from Hyderabad where an and killing of Mr. Abidi and attack on Chinese effort was seen to instigate Sindhi sub- Consulate in Karachi, which was claimed by nationalists Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army Baloch Liberation Army, are seen in the same

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 light. Table 19: Type of Attacks in Sindh in 2018

Killed Injured Type Nos M Arst Kdnp SFP RZ M C Total SFP RZ M C Total CrK 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 IED 4 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 9 9 0 0 MA 3 3 0 5 2 10 5 0 0 1 6 0 0 SA 1 0 0 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TK 5 1 0 0 5 6 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 Total 15 4 0 8 10 22 5 0 0 15 20 0 0

Figure 17: Yearly Comparison of Militant Attacks in Sindh since 2011

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

No of Attacks Deaths Injuries

Table 20: Affected Districts of Sindh in 2018

Killed Injured District Nos M Arst Kdnp SFP RZ M C Total SFP RZ M C Total Hyderabad 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 Karachi 12 4 0 8 9 21 5 0 0 13 18 0 0 Total 15 4 0 8 10 22 5 0 0 15 20 0 0

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Security Situation in Gilgit-Baltistan

Overall security situation in Gilgit- by the attackers believed to be opposed to girls’ Baltistan (GB) remained stable but not without education as most of these schools were girls’ some troubles as the region witnessed four schools. Militant attacks in Gilgit and Ghizer were militant attacks including two in Diamer district against security forces/ check post. All the and one each in Gilgit and Ghizer. Attacks in incidents were reported in August. However, Diamer district were coordinated as one dozen administration spring into action and the schools, including an Army Public School, were situation was controlled before it could go out of torched in various parts of the district in August control.

Security Situation in Islamabad & Azad Jammu and Kashmir

Overall security situation in Islamabad year as no militant attack was reported in these Capital Territory (ICT) and Azad Jammu & two regions. Kashmir (AJK) remained stable throughout the

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SECTION-II Issues of Significance

Non-Violent Developments Impacting Security Dynamics of Pakistan

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Security Situation in PTI’s Government and Likely Future Policies

Abdullah Khan

There is an impression that militant the said month in which 32 people were attack increased after Imran Khan-led killed while majority of the attacks took place political party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in FATA followed by Balochistan and KPK. The formed federal government in Pakistan. month of October also saw a rise in deaths of However, the data compiled by Pakistan security forces personnel. Balochistan was Institute for Conflict and Security Studies the deadliest province for the security forces (PICSS) suggests that the overall number of as 10 out of 16 deaths took place in the militant attacks and resultant human losses province during the month. Most of the have decreased during first four months of security forces deaths during the month PTI government. To comprehensively analyze were caused by Improvised Explosive the situation, a comparison of three sets of Devices (IEDs). periods, each consisting 127 days Violence continued to escalate in (approximately four months) is being made. November 2018 as militants managed to During 127 days of Imran Khan’s inflict more human losses. While the number government (from August 18, 2018 to of militant attacks has gone down by almost December 23, 2018), PICSS recorded 69 14 percent during November as 21 militant militant attacks in which 127 people were attacks were carried out in the month against killed and 171 injured. A comparison with the 24 militant attacks in October, the impact of data of 127 preceding days shows 22 percent a smaller number of attacks in November decline in number of attacks, 60 percent was higher than that of October. There has decline in resultant deaths and 73 percent been almost 49 percent increase in number decline in number of injured persons. When of deaths and almost 33 percent increase in compared with 127 corresponding days of number of injuries as compared to previous 2017 (August 18, 2017 to December 23, month. These 21 militant attacks in 2017), there was more decline as 47 percent November caused killing of 63 people and decline in number of attacks, 48 percent injuries to 73 others. November also reduction in resultant deaths and 60 percent witnessed some significant attacks including decrease in number of injured persons was an attack against Chinese consulate in observed. The reason behind the impression Karachi claimed by proscribed Baluchistan that the militant attacks have increased in Liberation Army (BLA) and an attack of the country after PTI came into power was sectarian nature claimed by DAESH in FATA. sudden rise in militant attacks during the The month of December 2018 saw a month of October 2018 and increase in remarkable reduction in the militant attacks number of deaths in November 2018. Few as first 23 days of the month witnessed only high-profile attacks also contributed in nine militant attacks (with only four more promoting the impression. Militant attacks in attacks till the yearend). Pakistan significantly increased during the On the other hand, a comparison of month of October 2018 as the militants number of actions taken against the militants carried out 24 attacks across the country in during 127 days of PTI government shows no

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significant extra ordinary change in the militants were killed and 118 and 100 pattern. In fact, the trend is almost identical suspects were arrested in four months to preceding 127 days from April 12 to before and after PTI came into power. The August 17, 2018. Pakistani Security Forces decline in the militant attacks cannot be conducted 53 actions in four months before specifically attributed to any policy of the PTI came into power while in four months of new government as the trend is consistently PTI government the security forces going down since June 2014 when Pakistan conducted 57 actions against the militants. had launched Operation Zarb-e-Azb in North Number of killed and arrested militants is Waziristan and then adopted National Action also almost same as 33 and 31 suspected Plan in January 2015. Counter-Terrorism Strategy by PTI PTI has envisaged structural changes that the government was not sure whether in national response against terrorism. NAP should be looked after by NACTA or According to Party’s manifesto a National NSD. It was initially with NACTA and then it Security Organization (NSO) is going to be was handed over to NSD and then again it formed which will practically merge NACTA was given back to NACTA. The office of and National Security Division. Currently, National Security Division has been National Security Division and National consuming reasonable resources of from Counter Terrorism Authorities (NACTA) are national treasure but not playing any two independent bodies having no significant role in fighting terrorism. PTI institutional mechanism to cooperate and government’s plan to establish National complement each other. NSD works as a Security Organization is a positive step (If cabinet division working directly under the properly implemented). The proposed Prime Minister and headed by National National Security Organization will have the Security Advisor. NACTA is constitutionally an Prime Minister of Pakistan as the Chairman independent body but practically working of the body while Federal Interior Minister under the Interior Ministry. PTI government and National Security Advisor will be the two has not appointed any National Security deputy chairmen of the body. Proposed Advisor yet which was a key post to not only National Security Organization (NSO) will liaison with Armed Forces but previous NSA have two parts. Under the Interior Minister, Lt. General (R) Nasser Khan Janjua had also there will be a Plenary Council which will opened a channel of communication with include Minister for Defense, Minister for Indian NSA Ajit Divol. Few rounds of Foreign Affairs, Minister for Finance, meetings also took place while both NSAs National Security Advisor, Chairman Joint used to talk on hotline too occasionally. That Chiefs of Staff Committee, Chief of Army channel of communication has been closed Staff, Chief of Air Staff and Chief of Naval Staff since June 27, 2018 when General Janjua had as members. Under the NSA, a Specialist stepped down from the post of NSA. Working Group will have heads of eight One of the reasons of slow progress intelligence agencies, and representatives of on implementation of National Action Plan police and paramilitary forces. DG or head of (NAP) – A 20-point National agenda adopted NACTA will be secretary of both the wings for by the government after attack on Army better organization. Specialist Groups are Public School on December 16, 2014) – was also proposed at

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provincial level so that intelligence sharing treaty/convention commitments on and cooperation can be developed on every counter terrorism. PTI would seek to operational level. Plenary Council will be choking terrorist funds by ensuring an responsible for decision making regarding effective National Terrorists Financing policy and strategy while Specialist Group Investigation Cell (NTFIC). will be overseeing intelligence sharing, • Eliminate: Eliminate those hard-core cooperation and implementation of the terrorists, who refuse to lay down their strategies and policies. NACTA is proposed as arms and surrender to the State, through Secretariat of the NSO. Apart from structural a comprehensive joint military-civilian reforms, PTI’s policy to tackle internal threat action of terrorism aims to defeat four main objectives of the terrorists: Ideology, • Educate: Educate the population Manpower, Funds and Weapons. through developing a counter ideological PM Imran Khan considers ongoing narrative by co-opting religious scholars war against terrorism in Pakistan as a war National security has figured out to which was not Pakistan’s war but imposed be one of the most important aspect of PTI upon the country. He had argued in the past government. The party in its manifesto that the issue must be resolved peacefully. mentioned Foreign Affairs under the chapter PTI’s proposed policy also argues that the “Ensuring Pakistan’s National Security”. It militants will be encouraged to lay down emphasizes not only on protecting Pakistan’s their weapons while force will be used national interests abroad but protecting against hardcore militants who refuse to Pakistani citizens abroad as well. Proper shun violence. Dealing with genuine political International Law section is also on the grievances of the people of FATA and agenda of PTI government to be established Balochistan is part of PTI’s policy. Notably, in Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Pakistan has PTI had not fielded candidates against two been facing terror threat from Indian spies leaders of Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement like Kulbhushan Yadav who was caught red (PTM). PTI’s strategy to counter terrorism is handed in Balochistan, but India took his based on four Es, which are: case to the International Court of Justice • Expose: Expose links between active and where Pakistan faced serious challenges to passive (those who provide logistics present its case effectively. The move to support but are not part of the fighting establish a proper section for International force) terrorists and seek to win over the Law will be very significant in dealing with latter so as to isolate the hard-core terror sponsoring activities by other states elements who rely on local populations into Pakistan. As part of structural reforms, for support. The local population acts as External Publicity will become part of the rear of the terrorists. By separating Ministry of Foreign Affairs instead of Ministry the passive supporters, the state of Information and Broadcasting. Another deprives the terrorists of an important step to be taken in structural reforms is component of their support structure. forming a policy coordination cell within the • Enforce: Enforce and fully implement all PM office to coordinate inputs from key components of the consensual National national stakeholders and Ministries into the Action Plan as well as implementing foreign policy, for informed decision-making. Pakistan’s international

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Revamping NAP PTI government is also CYBER-SECURITY ORGANIZATION to contemplating to introduce National Action effectively counter the growing threat of Plan 2 or it may revamp National Action Plan. cybercrimes. It envisages restructuring FATA reforms were a major component of NACTA to make it more functional, building National Action Plan which has been capacity of civil armed forces, upgrading the completed by merging FATA into Khyber safe city project and taking steps to curb Pakhtunkhwa. Minister of State for Interior currency smuggling from airports and Affairs Shehryar Afridi in his progress report borders. It may also be noted that first ever of 100 days hinted at bringing NAP 2 which meeting of NACTA board of governors was will bridge gaps in existing NAP. As per NAP held in September. 2, the interior ministry plans to create a Cyber Security PTI government is going to establish propaganda material in printed form, there a proper wing under NACTA to deal with the major tool is propagation through social Cyber Security threats. It is part of NAP 2. It media and other internet sources. Pakistan is worth noting that major tool of has been struggling to ban social media propaganda by the militants is cyber space accounts of groups active in Balochistan in through which they promote their message. the garb of nationalist armed struggle. The militants as well as Pakistan’s Twitter and Facebook most of the time adversaries often target websites of key accommodate requests of Pakistani government institutions. PTI is keen to authorities against religion-based militants promote E-Governance for the citizens of such as Al-Qaeda, TTP, DAESH etc. but Pakistan. Cyber security becomes more accounts of Baloch Liberation Army, Baloch important with growing technological usage Liberation Front and other militant groups in the affairs of governance and national are seldom taken down by the social media security. platforms on Pakistani request. As the militants find it hard to produce their National Internal Security Policy The previous government under The NISP 2018 focuses on three main Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi in June domains: Administrative (strengthening the 2018 had adopted and announced the ability of the state to respond to security National Internal Security Policy (NISP) 2018- issues), Ideational (challenging the 2023. In 2014 for the first time ever a ideological underpinnings of extremist National Internal Security Policy (NISP) was narratives) and Socio-Economic (addressing adopted. The 2014 NISP had been the deprivations that create a breeding articulated with a four-year span, and the ground for security challenges to emerge). NISP 2018-2023 would take forward the The NISP 2018 sees security as a product of previous policy by incorporating both the achieving both peace and the development lessons learnt over the past few years and of the country. the updated security profile of Pakistan Now the question is that how PTI which has seen new dangers such as DAESH. government will take forward NISP. So far, it

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could not figure out well in the talks and a dormant document during PML(N) statements of PTI leaders. However, NISP had government. How PTI government will take backing of the military establishment as the document is yet to be seen. However, if National Defence University (NDU) had the military will be keen to take the NISP played major role in formulation of NISP back further, the government is likely to support in 2013-14. Bitter fact is that NISP remained and implement the initiative. Revival of Apex Committees When NAP was adopted in January committees. The prime job of these 2015, Apex Committees were also formed to committees is to look after progress of oversee progress on the 20 points. Apex different initiatives taken by the state against Committees were formed at provincial level. the militants. In the absence of any formal Chief Ministers, Corp Commanders, Sector coordination mechanism, these committees Commanders of ISI, Commandants of MI, are the best platform for coordination Police Chiefs and officials of provincial home among different stakeholders. The proposed ministries were part of the Apex National Security Organization (NSO) will Committees. For quite some time these Apex have ‘specialists’ group’ at center as well as Committees were dormant perhaps because provincial level which may provide a formal of the political transition. Now once again it platform for future seamless coordination. has been decided to revive these apex All stakes holders on the same page The sitting government enjoys full also unearthed during PPP’s tenure when support of military establishment and all reportedly President Zardari through the stake holders are on the same page. PM’s then Pakistani Ambassador to the US Hussain vision of peaceful settlement of Afghan issue Haqqani had requested the US military to act translated into Pakistan’s support and active against Pakistani military. PML-N too role in bringing Afghan Taliban to negotiation remained at the loggerhead with the military table. Some quarters link proposed throughout last five years on different issues. withdrawal of more than 5000 US troops PTI on the other hand has no confrontational from Afghanistan to the recently concluded policy with the military and enjoys full talks between Taliban and US. PM Imran support of all quarters. It is worth noting that Khan along with his cabinet went to GHQ and Pakistani military is in the lead role in fighting spent several hours. He also chaired a terrorism. Most of the policies have meeting of the Corps Commanders of Pak military’s input as their implementation is Army. Previous two governments of PML-N also a responsibility of the military. Imran and PPP were not in good terms with the Khan’s government seems to have more military. PPP had attempted to clip powers of robust input mechanism from the different ISI by trying to bring it under Interior branches of the military. Ministry. Infamous Memo-Gate scandal was Missing Links PM Imran Khan has not appointed a Shehryar Afridi as Minister of State for Federal Minister of Interior and kept the Interior. In the absence of a full federal portfolio with himself. He has appointed minister a lot of things which were supposed

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to be implemented are yet to be formalized Previous National Security Advisor Lt. including formation of National Security General (R) Nasser Khan Janjua was also Organization. The progress of Shehryar Afridi active in diplomacy, who remained part of is believed to be much better than the other key dialogues with Afghanistan, Russia, China ministers during first 100 days and a and India. It seems PTI could not finalize a possibility of elevating him to the post of name for the NSA. The name of former DG ISI Federal Minister cannot be ruled out. In that Lt. General (R). Ahmad Shuja Pasha was case things may role out more smoothly. floated by some quarters when Imran Khan Another aspect which is lacking is that the became Prime Minister but the government government has yet not appointed National neither denied nor endorsed the idea. Security Advisor which is a key component in proposed National Security Organization.

About the Author: Mr. Abdullah Khan is a counter-terrorism, security and foreign policy expert and currently serves as Managing Director of Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

CHALLENGES TO CPEC AND CHINESE CITIZENS – AN APPRAISAL

Abdullah Khan Overview

The attack on Chinese consulate in Karachi different militant groups in the past. Chinese came in November 2018 by BLA militants have under attack from time to time. However, with underscored the threats Chinese citizens and China growing number of Chinese coming to Pakistan for Pakistan Economic Corridor face in Pakistan. Earlier CPEC related projects, official visits, private in August 2018, a suicide bomber of BLA had businesses, tourism and other tasks, the scope of targeted a convoy of Chinese in Dalbandin district threat has increased. PICSS has analysed different of Balochistan. A Chinese executive was killed in security challenges for Chinese and CPEC related Karachi in February while there were unconfirmed projects, response by the Pakistani State and scope reports of killings of two Chinese in KP province in for improvement in the existing arrangements. October. Chinese citizens remained a target of Potential Threats to CPEC and Chinese Citizens Separatist Militants It has been observed that sub-nationalist witnessed these nationalists opposing CPEC as well groups are more active against Chinese than as China. Interesting commonality is that, India is religiously motivated groups like Al-Qaeda, ISIS, believed to be behind all the separatist TTP and others in Pakistan. Wherever there are movements. However, Pakistan believes that India separatist tendencies in the country, they is not the only country supporting and promoting separatists oppose Chinese presence in Pakistan anti-Pakistan separatists but there are other and target or intend to target Chinese interests. adversaries as well. In following paragraph each Sindh, Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan has region and the groups active are briefly explained.

Sindh

Major threat to the Chinese interests as Baltistan have either targeted or planned to target well as CPEC comes from nationalist armed CPEC related projects, Chinese interests as well as movements. It has been noticed that separatist Chinese citizens. In the province of Sindh, Sindhi militants from Sindh, Balochistan and Gilgit- nationalist militants not only targeted Chinese

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 interests through militant activities, but public Baloch militants. Pakistan believes that most of the demonstrations have also been organized against sub-nationalist armed and unarmed groups have Chinese presence to shape the public opinion. Jiay connections with Indian intelligence which is an Sindh Mutahidda Mahaz (JSMM) is one such group open opponent of CPEC. which poses threats to Chinese interests in the province. On May 30, 2016 one person sustained If we analyse the level of threat in Sindh, minor injuries when a remote-controlled bomb then we realize that intention and ability of targeted a Chinese engineer’s vehicle near Quaid- targeting Chinese citizen is there. The question is e-Azam Park on the National Highway in Gulshan-i- about opportunity. Whenever sub-nationalist Hadeed suburb of Karachi. Police and other law- groups will find opportunity, they will not hesitate enforcement agencies believe the banned Jiay to target. To further break it down, the intention is Sindh Muttahida Mahaz (JSMM) was behind the at very strong level. However, the ability Sindhi attack. JSMM has been opposing CPEC since the sub-nationalists to target Chinese interests is far project was launched in 2015. It had threatened to lesser than the ability of their counterparts in attack Chinese interests. JSMM also opposes Balochistan or religiously motivated militants like Zulfiqarabad, a proposed coastal city which China TTP, Al-Qaeda etc. The attacks by Sindhi militants is going to build in collaboration with Sindh found mostly low intensity. Future prospects of the government in Thatta district. JSMM had also took threat posed by the Sindhi sub-nationalists will out public procession against Chinese activities in remain in place and with growing collaboration the province of Sindh. On 23 July 2013 a with Baloch militants, financial and training motorcycle bomb exploded near the Chinese support from Pakistan’s adversaries can turn it a consulate in Clifton leaving one Rangers jawan and potent threat. The recent political turmoil in Sindh two others injured. The JSMM had accepted where top leadership of Pakistan People’s Party responsibility for the attack in reaction to faces serious court cases of corruption including Zulfiqarabad. Sindhu Desh Liberation Army is the former President Asif Ali Zardari and current Chief militant wing of JSMM. The group had tried to Minister Murad Ali Shah can also worsen the target Chinese Engineer in July 2017 in the area of situation. It cannot be ruled out that Asif Ali Zardari Bin Qasim in Karachi with an IED, but the bomb may resort to ‘Sindh Card’ which Peoples Party has detonated only after the Chinese convoy had always used to get concessions from the centre. passed. In February 2018, a senior Chinese Sindh Card is a threat to rebel against the shipping company executive was shot dead in port federation. In that case the level of threat in Sindh city of Karachi. It was a targeted attack. It is worth will be compounded to many folds. noting that Sindhi separatists work closely with the Balochistan

The soil of Balochistan is most important Republican Army, United Baloch Army, Lashkar-e- for the CPEC as well as Chinese but it is the most Balochistan, Baloch Liberation Front etc. are some hostile soil as well where sub-nationalist militant of the major groups active in the province and they groups are more organized and equipped than the all have converged on targeting Chinese and militants in Sindh. In fact, the threat in Sindh is Pakistani interests in the province. The recent negligible if compared with Balochistan. The attack on Chinese Consulate Karachi (November Balochistan Liberation Army, the Baloch 2018) and suicide bombing on Chinese workers in

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

Dalbandin district of Balochistan (August 2018) will improve rating of the centre in the eyes of the were claimed by Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) local population. The development will deprive the led by Herbyar Marri who lives in UK. Almost all militants off from support in the local population Baloch militant groups have issued threats to which was kept away from economic opportunities Chinese. The CPEC related projects will uplift socio- by local leaders as well as centre. economic condition of the local population which The connection of Baloch militants with citizens in the province. Such kind of move is least India and other adversaries of Pakistan is a known like to work but it will for sure annoy Pakistani fact. Arrested RAW officer Kulbhushan Yadav has government which is doing its best to protect revealed how he was in contact with BLA and other Chinese interests in the country. There are roughly Baloch militant groups and how India provides 21 thousand Chinese working on CPEC related them money and material support. Baloch projects in Pakistan and Pakistan has at least 18 militants will continue to target CPEC related thousand personnel for their protection. The ratio projects as well as other Chinese interests in the of per personnel for per Chinese citizen is province and outside. Intention and ability to unprecedented. Chinese will have to trust the target is very much there. How security ability of Pakistani forces. However, militant attacks arrangements can deprive them the opportunity to in future cannot be ruled out but the scale, strike is the real test of Pakistani security forces as magnitude and frequency of potential attacks may well as Chinese. There were some news reports be insignificant compared with the strategic that China as directly approached some separatist importance of the CPEC projects and other Chinese groups in Balochistan to ensure security of its engagements in Pakistan.

Gilgit-Baltistan

Gilgit-Baltistan is another area where government of GB has taken many initiatives to external forces sponsored anti-CPEC sentiments in neutralize the impact BNF propaganda including a segment of local population. In 2017, police had mobilizing religious scholars of all schools of foiled a plan to attack CPEC projects by arresting at thoughts to help the local population clarify their least 12 militants of Balawaristan National Front minds. Counter narrative on social media is also (BNF). Although no attack could be conducted by being projected through concerted efforts. the group so far due to extra vigilance by the However, the situation will remain a point of Pakistani security forces, the group has become serious concern for Pakistani authorities who are very active on social media to provoke local giving special focus to address the gradiences of population against CPEC, China and Pakistan. The the local population. Religiously-Motivated Militants Militant groups fighting in the name of interests. The religious militants can target CPEC Islam are also a serious threat to CPEC related and Chinese interests for a variety of reasons. projects and Chinese interest. However, so far, the Some issues which the militants exploit to mobilize sub-nationalist separatist militants are on the and motivate Pakistani youth against China include forefront in threatening CPEC and Chinese the issue of Xinjiang Muslims. Recently media

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 reports emerging in International media have been The group had previously very strong ties with TTP creating serious impact in the Muslim majority as well. The group’s affiliation with Al-Qaeda in population of Pakistan. No doubt the Chinese Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) is also a known fact. Embassy in Islamabad has been trying its best to Head of AQIS Moulana Asim Umar in 2018 issued clarify many misconceptions, but the situation at least two audio lectures for the Chinese Muslims requires more attention from the Chinese of Xinjiag province which shows that Al-Qaeda government. It is worth noting that Turkistan attaches special attention to the issue of Xinjiang. Islamic Party (previously known as ETIM) has Potential of motivating some Pakistani militant to strong ties with Al-Qaeda, Afghan Taliban as well as target Chinese interests is very much there. It has Pakistani Taliban. The group’s leadership has been observed that the religious community in pledged allegiance with Afghan Taliban leadership. Pakistan has concerns regarding the situation in It has been working in close coordination with Al- Xinjiang province. There is a need to clarify Qaeda. Although the group has been dented badly misconceptions with some improvements on the after operation Zarb-e-Azb in FATA in 2014 and ground as well. Xinjiang is in the main focus in the since then no visible traces of TIP could be found context of CPEC. As the efforts are in place in some on Pakistani soil but the group has been taking part parts of Pakistan, there is most likely the situation in fight against Afghan government and other anti- may get worse due to foreign interventions and Taliban forces in the northern part of Afghanistan. propaganda of the militant groups.

Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Hizbul- Mansehra, Shangla, Batagram and Kohistan. There Ahrar, Jamat-ul-Ahrar, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, DAESH, are pockets in these areas where militants can find Al-Qaeda and other militant groups fighting against some support from the local population. The Pakistani state are also potential threat to Chinese security forces will have to keep a constant interests in the country. After Operation Zarb-e- vigilance in the area and cannot afford to lower Azb, some of the militants relocated into their guards. Efforts/Policies by Government of Pakistan to protect Chinese and CPEC Existing Arrangements Pakistan has a dedicated military force officer in charge of the force. Another arrangement known as CPEC Security Division working under for the day to day protection of Chinese workers Pakistan Army. 34 Light Infantry Division has four has been made under the civilian government of Brigades which is mostly detailed in the northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The KP government has areas where construction work on CPEC related created Karakorum Police Force (KPF) which is a road infrastructure is going on. The Division has a dedicated force to patrol along Karakorum force of more than 15000 personnel. Its major task Highway and protect all the camps of workers is to protect Chinese personnel, venues of their working with Chinese companies including stay/residence, working sites and infrastructure of Pakistani and Chinese workers. From Haripur to CPEC related projects. A serving major general is Kohistan, KPF is responsible for protection of

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

Chinese citizens and the Karakorum Highway as Authority which had created Special Security Cells well as camps established for the Chinese workers. in all four provinces to gather intelligence KPF has a strength of around 1300 personnel. regarding threats to Chinese nationals. Sindh government has also established a dedicated force Under the supervision of Army, all the for the protection of CPEC projects. Special civilian law enforcement and intelligence agencies Protection Units comprised of mostly former including Police, IB, ISI and others coordinate with military personnel as well as retired policemen. each other to make sure the security of the CPEC Personnel strength of the Special Protection Unit is project is not compromised. Another arrangement around 1400. is working under National Counter Terrorism Prospects of improvement in existing arrangements Keeping in mind growing threat to CPEC the centre cannot directly interfere in this matter related projects and Chinese in Balochistan, the unless the province requests or approves any military leadership has decided to raise another request from the centre. This underscores the role Division of Army. The Division will be generally of police forces established by Sindh and KP called CPEC South Division while the existing governments for the protection of CPEC projects. Division will become CPEC North Division. CPEC Better coordination can provide better protection South Division will look after CPEC related issues in in future. As the attack on Chinese consulate was Sindh and Balochistan and Southern parts of planned in another country, the role of Pakistan’s Punjab adjacent to Balochistan. In the wake of intelligence agencies, especially working on recent attack on Chinese consulate in Karachi, the external intelligence becomes vital. They will have need for robust intelligence sharing between to make special arrangements to gather CPEC- provinces has emerged as major requirement to specific intelligence. Government has also decided plug the gaps in existing arrangements. Since 18th to register all the Chinese in Pakistan and their data amendment in the constitution was passed, law will be communicated to the local police stations enforcement has become a provincial subject and where they work. Measures taken after attack on Chinese Consulate in Karachi Pakistani security forces have taken the Aslam along with key commanders of the group attack on Karachi consulate very seriously and were also killed in a suicide bombing in Qandahar, within a week arrests were started from different Afghanistan. Experts believe that Pakistan was parts of the country. Most of the facilitators of the behind the killing of commander Aslam. The killing attack have been arrested from Karachi, Sukkur, of Aslam has given a very strong message to the Shikarpur (Sindh), Quetta and Kharan BLA and other militant groups targeting Chinese (Balochistan). The campaign did not end at just that Pakistan will not tolerate such attacks and will some arrests but the mastermind of both the not hesitate to use whatever means it can adopt to attacks on Chinese BLA Chief commander Ustad punish those who will create troubles for the

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

Chinese. The attack on commander Asalm was also contacts with Baloch militants is of no use and a message for the China that establishing direct Pakistan knows better how to deal with them.

About the Author: Mr. Abdullah Khan is a counter-terrorism, security and foreign policy expert and currently serves as Managing Director of Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

CIVIL MILITARY RELATIONS- AN OVERVIEW OF 2018

Major General (retd) Muhammad Saad Khattak

Just before the beginning of 2019 in the year 2018. With both mainstream ruling Pakistan’s civil and military leadership seems to political parties discredited, the political have got on the same page. This is a huge success environment was set for Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf if viewed from Pakistan's strategic perspective at a (PTI) not because they were the best but because stage of very critical juncture, both regional and they were untested and were positively appealing international. The past decade, especially after the to the populace. To be fair, Pakistan People’s Party stepping down of President Musharraf from power, (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League N (PML N) had was not as promising as things seem now. It is true, spent their tenures the traditional way, where the that the mainstream civil leadership had people were fed up with their style of governance differences with the military leadership in the past, and handling issues of national honour and it was the National Action Plan (NAP) that prestige. On top of the under-achieving encouraged the entire political leadership and the performance of the two ruling parties, the strong military leadership to join hands and work for and focused appeal of PTI in exposing PPP and PML common goals. At the beginning of a new year N did the real damage. This was the moment when filled with hope, demanding perseverance from its PPP and PML N tried to sell narrative of a nationals, Pakistan embarks on a journey in which connivance between PTI and Military. Both the the civil military leadership fully backed up by the parties tried to sell this narrative that the military majority people remains completely aligned in is latently helping PTI and therefore if PTI won the pursuit of unified goals. elections, these would be projected as unfair and sabotaged. The year 2017 had many instances where one could clearly see the divide between the two. The current Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Dawn leaks were perhaps the most controversial General Qamar Javed Bajwa has given a clear aspects of the relation in that time. Still, the mutual message both domestically as well as collaboration and compromises concluded the internationally that the military clearly stands whole confusion in a rather comfortable manner. behind the civilian leadership and will fully back all Subsequently, the ruling party of the time led by its domestic as well as diplomatic initiatives in the Ex-Prime Minister Nawaz was hit by judicial best interest of the country and its people. As part inquiries and Joint Investigation Team (JIT) on of defence diplomacy, the COAS embarked on account of Panama Papers. Investigations proved various visits (in the last two years) of both regional irregularities between assets and income of Nawaz and extra regional countries to complement the Sharif and forcing his ousting. These were the diplomatic efforts of civilian leadership of the times when again the political parties pointed country. Notwithstanding endeavours of civil and towards the role of military in the investigations military leadership, the evident efforts of India but failed to produce anything in support of their which seems relentless when it comes to narrative. undermining Pakistan both regionally and internationally. The episode of Kulbhushan Jadhav Soon, the general elections were at hand is yet another clear evidence of India`s nefarious

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 designs against Pakistan. However, success or the country is currently confronted with. Civil and failure of such Indian designs will largely depend on military leadership will have to realize to avoid how effectively Pakistan is able to address its taking two extremes and find a middle ground ethnic (as well as sectarian) fault-lines and where input from security apparatus is also duly eradicate socio-economic problems of masses. considered but the policies are devised by the Remaining on the same page, moving ahead with a civilian leadership with better understanding of positive trajectory is not only every Pakistanis contemporary national, regional and international desire but a compulsion for our civil military environment. leadership, given the opportunities and challenges

About the Author: Major General (retd) Muhammad Saad Khattak is a retired two-star general of Pakistan Army and currently serves as Chairman of Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

MILITARY COURTS’ FATE HANGS IN BALANCE

Gul Dad

Military courts were established after judicial confessional statements recorded in Urdu tragic Army Public School attack in Peshawar in were ‘in one and the same handwriting and in one 2014 to expeditiously deal with terrorism related specific tone/style’. “It is admitted at the bar that charges. The courts were initially established for a for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa there were in all three period of two years but in 2017, their tenure was Field General Court Martial courts and each and extended for another two years. Now the courts every document on file would show that all the are going to complete their second tenure and the three courts were functioning on one and the same government plans to extend them for another two pattern not even a single accused has deviated years through another constitutional amendment. differently to the questions put on him,” it pointed out. The bench said the questions put to all According to Inter-Service Public Relations, accused were one and the same with exactly the Ministry of Interior referred 717 cases to the same answers in all cases and even for the purpose military courts since their establishment. In these of engaging private counsel, the same format cases, 345 terrorists were awarded death sentence would reflect there were planned proceedings in and 55 of them have been executed while 656 all the said three courts. “It is observed from the miscreants were awarded other sentences and five record, so produced that they have erased each 3 were acquitted due to lack of evidences. Military and every date, the names of the prosecution’s believes that these courts acted as main witnesses, their designations, and many other deterrence against terrorism. However, the fate of things. The court ruled that even in the secret these military courts hangs in balance as these reports of the prosecution, army and intelligence courts will complete their tenure in March 2019. agencies, no one had been named till the time, someone was arrested, and he was shifted to the Lately, the decisions of these courts also internment centre, where each and every one who came under serious judicial scrutiny. On 18 had been arrested from anywhere in the down October, Peshawar High Court (PHC) set aside country was framed in a particular charge. It added convictions of 74 persons convicted by the military that after years of confinement, the arrested man court in terrorism charges.4 The PHC rejected was abruptly produced before the authorities for confessional statements of all convicts by recording of confessional statements and that too elaborately discussing the flaws in them. It also in the same tone and language and then before the discussed whether the right to fair trial under Field General Court Martial. The court ruled that Article 10-A of the Constitution was extended to these confessional statements were recorded after the convicts. The bench observed that the entire much delay from the date of arrest, confined in

3 https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/413985-war-on- 4 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1829006/1-phc-sets- terror-pakistan-only-success-story-in-world-says-dg- aside-sentences-74-military-court-convicts/ ispr

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 internment centre, when they were having no months and years to come. The most unfortunate facility to meet their relatives even the parents and part of this puzzle that special anti-terrorism courts close blood relations.5 Supreme Court (SC) on 2 (ATCs) established under Anti-Terrorism Act 1997 November, approved the hearing of appeals filed are also not functioning properly and as a per a by the federal government against the Peshawar report such courts in Sindh merely have just 13.2 High Court's (PHC) decision. The top court also percent conviction rate due to lack of evidence, stayed the release of the alleged terrorists, until a capacity issues of investigator and poor written order is issued after hearing the appeals prosecution7. As much as 53 ATCs were established which were filed by the Ministry of Defence.6 in Sindh out of which only 45 are functioning. Similar situation is likely to have ATCs in rest of the The order of the Peshawar High Court country since systematic issues remain the same clearly hints that proceedings under military courts across all the geophonic regions where such courts would find extremely hard to pass the litmus test were established. Now the eyes will be set on of passing criteria of safeguarding constitutionally Supreme Court to review the decision of the backed fundamental rights. Military courts were Peshawar High Court. Regardless of what the challenged in the top courts but were allowed to outcome may be, one thing is abundantly clear that function. Accepting of all appeals against the military courts were neither a solution nor will decision of the military court, prima facie, shows remain so in future and the solution only lies in that this might be just the precedence that is to be reforming the whole judicial system in such a way followed on all anticipated future appeals provided that it caters for all the present and future that Supreme Court also uses the same lenses/ challenges. criteria and conducts purely a constitutional and legal review as the decision of Peshawar High Court In the meanwhile, a move for another has been challenged in the Supreme Court. extension of military courts is in offing as the courts are set to expire in March 2019. The Law Ministry These military courts were established in has reportedly forwarded a summary to the federal 2015 after APS tragedy only as a stop-gap cabinet for approval seeking second extension in arrangement with the objective that judicial tenure of courts.8 However, further extension of reforms will be introduced to make the judicial military courts by the present legislature might not process effective and whole-compassing whose be an easy task given uneasy relations between absence had actually warranted establishment of main opposition parties PML-N and PPP with that military courts. Pakistan could not bring about of PTI government as well as military those reforms in due course of almost four years establishment. PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto and the latest judicial review of the cases of Zardari in December 2018 categorically mentioned military courts suggest that Pakistan is back to that he would vehemently oppose the extension of square one with the cost going to span over military courts, and regretted that parliament had

5 https://www.dawn.com/news/1442950/convictions- 7 https://www.dawn.com/news/1440534/atcs-in- by-army-courts-not-based-on-evidence-phc sindh-convicted-315-in-eight-months 6 https://www.dawn.com/news/1443125/sc-accepts- 8 https://www.dawn.com/news/1455059 appeals-against-acquittal-of-74-convicts-by-phc

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 previously sanctioned such legislation.9 This the houses of the parliament. In 2015 after APS opposition to military courts is likely to be much tragedy, military courts were established as an higher after the JIT report which has implicated top adhoc measure for a period of two years, which PPP leadership while PML-N, who believes military were extended for another two years in March establishment behind ouster and accountability 2017, for expeditious disposal of terrorism related cases against its supremo, is also likely to oppose cases with the pledge that reforms in judicial any extension of the military courts. Without system will be introduced. However, despite support from these two main opposition parties passage of four years, no worthwhile progress was whose combine tally in Senate forms the majority, made in revamping judicial system that could another extension of military courts would not be provide legal basis for prosecuting people accused possible as it requires two-third majority in both of terrorism.

About the Author: Mr. Gul Dad is a counter-terrorism, security and foreign policy expert and currently serves as Director Research & HR of Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies

9 https://www.dawn.com/news/1452593

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

PAIGHAM-E-PAKISTAN JOINT FATWA: A STEP IN RIGHT DIRECTION

Gul Dad

Pakistan has made a notable stride in the forbids private jihad as such decision is to be made form of fatwa against various forms of militancy, by the state. Paigham-e-Pakistan is the most suicide terrorism, waging private jihad, authentic counter-narrative to militants’ narrow sectarianism and religious intolerance. Reportedly, interpretation of Islam, jihad, state and society. on 16 January, 'Paigham-i-Pakistan' fatwa was unveiled during a ceremony in Islamabad, which While the militants mostly playing in the was issued unanimously by religious scholars hands of anti-Pakistan elements might remain belonging to all schools of thought.10 In a book unmoved by these fatwas, it will have positive prepared by International Islamic University, more impact on those who are fighting against the state than 1,800 Pakistani religious scholars have issued drawing their motivation from the religion. Despite an Islamic directive, or fatwa, forbidding suicide the fact that almost a year has lapsed since the bombings.11 book was launched in January 2018, no worthwhile progress was witnessed to propagate it across the The fatwa is notable endeavor and would country. There is an urgent need that book is go long way in helping people who are being propagated through various mean across all the exploited by militants in the name of religion as the segments of society including students of book is based on the Quranic verses and sayings of universities, colleges, religious seminaries etc for Holy Prophet (PBUH). Importantly, the book short- and long-term benefits for the society as projects Pakistan as an Islamic country citing well as state. various examples from the Constitution. Moreover, the Fatwa also forbids the use of Pakistani soil for terrorism against any other third country and

About the Author: Mr. Gul Dad is a counter-terrorism, security and foreign policy expert and currently serves as Director Research & HR of Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies

10 https://www.dawn.com/news/1383306/govt- 11 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1610044/1-1800- unveils-paigham-i-pakistan-fatwa-against-terrorism pakistani-religious-scholars-declare-suicide-bombings- haram-new-fatwa/

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

ACTIONS AGAINST JUD; MAINSTREAMING OF FAR-RIGHT – STRATEGIC DIRECTION NEEDED

Gul Dad & Ali Hussain

At the dawn of the year 2018, Government of personnel banned through the UN's Security Pakistan had shown willingness to take action Council's resolution stood banned in Pakistan against Jamat ud Dawa (JuD) when on 1 January too.14 After the promulgation of the ordinance, all 2018, Securities & Exchange Commission of properties of JuD and the FIF were confiscated in Pakistan (SECP) prohibited the collection of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan. donations by JuD as well as several other such Some 148 properties and assets of the outfits were organisations named in a list of banned outfits by also seized in Punjab. KPK government on 17 the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The March initiated a crackdown against JuD and FIF by SECP further warned that non-compliance with the seizing the organisations' offices and taking over said ruling could result in a hefty monetary fine.12 the latter's operational matters. Peshawar's district Similarly, government planned to seize control of administration, with the help of police and other charities and financial assets linked to JuD and its law enforcement agencies, had initiated action charity wing Falah-e-Insaniat Foundation (FIF). against the JuD in the provincial capital after Subsequently, Islamabad police on 3 January 2018 receiving directions from the federal registered first information reports (FIR) against government.15 However, JuD in March challenged the display of banners requesting donations for in the Lahore High Court the government’s action FIF.13 against its welfare activities.16 Subsequently, the Lahore Court restricted government of taking In February, country-wide ban was imposed action against JuD and its Chief Hafiz Saeed till on JuD after President Mamnoon Hussain disposal of the case and allowed JuD, in its interim amended the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA) 1997 and order, to continue its “Lawful welfare activities”. 17 issued the amended Anti-Terrorism Ordinance The government challenged interim order of the 2018. Following an amendment in Section 11-B Lahore High Court in the Supreme Court but the and 11-EE of the ATA, the organisations and latter in September 2018 rejected the federal

12 https://www.dawn.com/news/1380152/hafiz- 15 https://www.dawn.com/news/1395851/kp- saeeds-jamaatud-dawa-others-barred-from-collecting- government-seals-offices-of-hafiz-saeeds-jud-fif-seizes- charity mosquesseminaries 13 https://www.dawn.com/news/1380551/firs-lodged- 16 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1661691/1-jud-files- in-islamabad-against-jud-charity-fifs-banners- petition-lhc-ban-welfare-activities/ appealing-for-donations 17 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1678511/1-lhc-allows- 14 https://www.dawn.com/news/1388987 hafiz-saeed-continue-welfare-activities/

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 government’s plea against a Lahore High Court segregated. However, as a group, MMA has (LHC) interim order allowing Jamat-ud-Dawa (JuD) grabbed only 4.85 percent of total votes but among and its affiliated Falah-e-Insaniat Foundation (FIF) the vote share of RPPs, MMA could only grab 49.42 to continue their ‘welfare activities’. 18 Now the percent share with Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan case is lying pending in Lahore High Court for final (TLP) following closely behind with a vote bank adjudication. Since the presidential ordinance has among national parties as 4.22 percent and among only a 120-day period if not otherwise passed by the RPPs 42.99 percent (notably, TLP also secured an act of parliament, the said amendment in Anti- two seats in Sindh Assembly). The share of Allah-o- Terrorism Act stands nullified as no bill was Akbar Tehreek (AAT) was 0.32 percent and 3.30 subsequently passed by the parliament and hence respectively in national and RPPs’ share while the JuD remains out of the ambit of banned outfits in same share of Pakistan Rah-e-Haq Party (PRHP) the country. Now a larger question of was 0.10 and 1.06 percent, respectively. These mainstreaming of groups with extremists three new entrants in political arena are being tendencies or linked with militancy came into play. particularly discussed since these are believed to be linked with militancy or having tendency to In July general elections for national and adopt violent means for achieving their objectives. provincial assemblies, participation of some of the religious-political parties (RPPs) remained a PICSS strongly believes that adopting subject of particular interest for various reasons. political means for Disarmament, Demobilization, While revival of MMA – a conglomerate of various and Reintegration are the most viable solution and religious political parties belonging to almost all could best be done through political engagement. schools of thought – was an important Opting of such groups of political means to achieve development but it was entry into politics of some their political objectives should be welcomed other groups/ parties that raised eyebrows at least when it is compared with their opting for use of in some circles both nationally as well as force. However, truly and unshakingly believing in internationally. Overall 12 religious-political parties political means with a solemn and explicit pledge participated in recent elections and, according to not to revert to violence under any pretext should an estimate, these 12 parties secured 9.58 percent be the main criteria for accepting credentials of of total votes with some of them showing clear such groups entering into national politics. That signs of losing voters’ confidence among those could be done by a government duly backed by the who were already in politics. However, among parliament. This issue must have been decided those who have lately entered into electoral much earlier than the arrival of these people in the politics, the trend is quite fluctuating but that parliament. Now it is the responsibility of the fluctuation is only against expectations. parliament as well as the government to debate the issue and find a way out. Since MMA contested elections as an alliance, separate share of votes for its separate constituent parties might not be precisely

18 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1801624/1-sc-rejects- plea-hafiz-saeeds-charities/

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

About the Authors: Mr. Gul Dad is a counter-terrorism, security and foreign policy expert and currently serves as Director Research & HR at Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies. Mr. Ali Hussain is a Ph. D scholar and currently serves as Research Associate at Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies.

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

PAKISTAN’S PLACEMENT IN THE GREY LIST AND ITS IMPLICATIONS

Siddiqa Sadiq Kiani

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) is a action plan to address these loopholes. Second are multilateral organization which started operating those who end up doing not enough. The former is in 1987 by G7 group in order to counter money commonly known as grey list and later as blacklist. laundering. However, after the attacks in the United States of America on September 11, 2001, Last year, Pakistan had been placed in the the organization added countering terrorism grey list in the month of June. Previously from financing in its mandate. It is an inter- 2012-2015, Pakistan was added in the Grey List on governmental body and has no legal powers. It the plea that the state was not fully compliant with consists of voluntary guidelines and cooperation the standards for effectively combating the twin agreements for banks and other financial menaces i.e. ML and TF. However, due to institutions. Whereas, its guidelines have to be productive measures such as increased taken more seriously since they have significant enforcement against all proscribed organizations repercussions for any state if failed to comply. Its and individuals including those attempting to member states which are included in first category operate under new names, increased vigilance of are United States, most of Western European non-profit organizations and enhanced capacity states, China, India, Brazil, Turkey, and a few other building of the authorities concerned to strengthen states. First category states are responsible for the implementation of recently reformed CTF law, policy making of FATF. Pakistan falls into the second Pakistan was successful in getting out of the list. Yet category of states, which is not part of the besides all diplomatic efforts Pakistan is again policymaking process.19 facing the similar dilemma since past few months and finally discovers its name in the grey list in the FATF maintains two different lists of states. month of June 2018. Firstly, those who have deficiencies in their anti- money laundering (AML) or counter terrorism financing (CTF) regimes but they commit to an WHY PAKISTAN IS ADDED IN THE GREY LIST? Since Pakistan’s inclusion, there happens whether it was justified or not? Many people have to be a lot of concern being observed worldwide. even argued that this inclusion indicated a global Consequently, many questions have been raised propaganda against Pakistan. Where great powers, regarding Pakistan’s inclusion in the list stating aggravated of China-Pakistan increased

19 Profit. Pakistan Today. "The FATF Grey List Means More Trouble for Pakistan Than You Think." 2018.

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 relationships might be implicitly squeezing catalyst in Pakistan’s placement in the list. In Pakistan hiding behind the norm of curbing addition to that some even regard lack of support terrorist financing from Pakistan. Under fabrication for Pakistan from international community. The of this action, the great powers, might be trying to third one could be ‘the’ reason since Pakistan’s isolate Pakistan. core allies like Turkey, Saudi Arabia and China backed off from standing beside Pakistan. Reason behind all these possible scenarios is that for all states to be verified of suspicion, In order to escape the grey list, there FATF usually evaluates the state’s financial system should be at the least three states voting in favor. to determine whether they are to be included on Saudi Arabia turned its back on Pakistan first, later the blacklist or grey list. However, this time in case did China to save its face but the one and only of Pakistan, no such evaluation was done. standing till the end was Turkey. Obviously, that Pakistan’s placement was hence made on United was not enough. And down went Pakistan into the States’ proposal with the support of France, dungeons of suspicions by FATF. Germany and Britain. However, it should be noted that The Trump administration has made an Pakistan’s placement is not because of actual adhesive effort to coerce Pakistan to end its incidence of money laundering or terrorism support of non-state armed groups such as the financing; rather it is due to absence or weakness Haqqani Network. Despite Pakistan’s efforts on of controls that make the state vulnerable to such ‘global war on terror’, a tweet was posted by the risks. Now Pakistan will have to deliver the goals in President of US saying that “Pakistan has given the shortest time span. United States, nothing but lies & deceit”. According to Pakistani official the US administration also A delegation of the Asia-Pacific Group suspended assistance of over $1 billion, which (APG) had carried evaluation on site last year. The included military assistance as well as the release delegation included Ian Collins of UK’s New of Coalition Support Funds (CSF), money which the Scotland Yard, James Prussing of the US United States owes to Pakistan for military Department of Treasury, Ashraf Abdullah of the operations. Financial Intelligence Unit of the Maldives, Boby Wahyu Hernawan of the Indonesian Ministry of Technically, being placed in the grey list Finance, Gong Jingyan of the People’s Bank of means that Pakistan's financial system will be China and Mustafa Necmeddin Oztop of the designated as posing a threat to the international financial system because of "strategic deficiencies" in its ability to prevent terror financing and money laundering. Subsequently this is happening when Pakistan is on its track to achieve success from CPEC. Can that be considered just a coincidence? Some people even attribute it to the so-called ‘failure’ of the National Action Plan as the main

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

Turkish Ministry of Justice.20 The delegation always shown their resentment towards Pakistan expressed its dissatisfaction over country’s at international forums when so ever they seem progress to comply with international best possible, Pakistan has therefore, raised concerns practices against money laundering and counter- regarding the inclusion of a member in the panel terror financing. Additionally, it highlighted the from India but if we look at the bigger picture that deficiencies in laws, regulations and mechanisms surely wouldn’t be much of a problem than the and weaknesses of various institutions. The progress made by the authorities themselves. It is delegation also informed the finance minister that believed that the team will represent report on 10 the relevant agencies were either ill-prepared and out of the 27 recommendations in front of the FATF ill-informed or unwilling to share information with panel. Where huge achievements have been made the delegation. Hence not bringing forward a very and other 17 are yet on their way to welcoming attitude. Hence, it can be concluded fulfilment/success. Fingers crossed are for the that with this pace Pakistan was unlikely to get out results which may turn out to be an admiration or of the grey list. However, January 2019 can be recognition of Pakistan’s efforts or the other way rendered as a new beginning where a team of 12, round. All in all, a positive outcome is hoped out of headed by finance secretary is expected to meet a wise institution such as FATF itself. the officials from FATF in Sydney. Since Indians

CONSEQUENCES Talking about the consequences to be investors are already scared, as many people faced by Pakistan, will they be serious (credible) suspect that it’s just a beginning and is merely a enough to put restrain on Pakistan’s support to part of US strategy to punish Pakistan for its benign terrorist groups? Starting off with the attitude towards some militant groups. consequences, certainly it will be difficult for There is another side of the picture as well. Pakistan to regain international support in this Pakistan was on the FATF grey list from 2012 to situation as it possessed previously in 2015. 2015, a period during which it successfully Furthermore, it will be difficult for Pakistan to get completed an IMF program and raised over $5 foreign loans from IMF, World Bank or Asian billion from the international bond markets. During Development Bank. Another hurdle could be the this period Pakistan’s imports and exports difficulty in raising loan from international remained stable and proved that the grey listing markets. Foreign banks may also decide to pull out, did not raise any significant barriers to trade. hitting the financial sector of Pakistan21 The

20 Kiani, Khaleeq. "Pakistan's Progress on Fatf 21 Hall, Anoop.“WhataretheimplicationsofPakistan Requirement Termed Unsatisfactory". (October 20 beingplacedontheFATFwatchlist”. www.quora.com 2018).

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LEAST POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS

The new policies adopted can prove to be terrorism financing prosecution. In addition to healthy for Pakistan’s economy. These policies that, four are about curbing currency movement include a 26-point action plan spanning over a across the border and five relate to improvement period of 15 months. This plan is quite ambitious in the supervision mechanisms of banks and and the state of Pakistan has committed to prove companies.22 In an interview, he said that Pakistan to the world that Pakistan is ready to go an extra has chalked out a 15 month time frame in this mile to curb money laundering, despite its regard. In a recent activity Pakistan Govt. has reservations that it was politically motivated. started working on the border issue with Afghanistan where Ashraf Ghani is willing to Cooperating with FATF, Pakistan's cooperate on all costs. Hence, having Afghanistan Ambassador to the United States Ali Jehangir on Pakistan’s side, one can assume that the future Siddiqui has vowed to take measures to come out can be fruitful both for Pakistan’s economy as well of FATF grey list. For that cause a 26-point plan was as Afghanistan’s stability. devised which included nine commitments regarding the UNSC resolutions as well as eight commitments to address concerns regarding

About the Author: Ms. Siddiqa Sadiq Kiani is a graduate of Fatima Jinnah University currently contributing as Research Assistant at Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies

22 The Nation. “Pakistan Vows to Take Steps to Come out of FATF Grey-List”. 2018.

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GREATER AUTONOMY FOR AJK, GB: A STEP IN RIGHT DIRECTION

Gul Dad

In 2018, the federal government has taken amendments to the AJK Constitution abolishing some steps towards granting autonomy to AJK and the council’s administrative and financial powers Gilgit-Baltistan. In February, Pakistan Muslim and reducing it to an advisory body.25 League-Nawaz and the Pakistan People’s Party agreed to abolish the upper house of Azad Jammu On the other hand, reforms in Gilgit- and Kashmir’s parliament and transfer all of its Baltistan (GB) remained mired in controversies. On administrative powers to Legislative Assembly 22 May, Federal cabinet made the decisions of (LA), the lower house. AJK council was functioning placing the amendment bill to the parliament. It under the direct administrative ambit of Pakistan’s was also decided to notify the changes and federal government despite being the upper house constitutional reforms in Gilgit-Baltistan as the 26 of AJK Parliament.23In May 2018, country’s civil President is entitled to do. Subsequently, Gilgit- and military leadership in National Security Baltistan government promulgated the Gilgit- Committee meeting decided to grant greater Baltistan Order-2018, replacing the GB autonomy to AJK and Gilgit-Baltistan in addition to Empowerment and Self-Governance Order of merging FATA with KPK. “After detailed 2009. Under the new order, all powers exercised deliberations, a consensus was reached on the by the GB council, including passing legislation devolution of greater administrative authority and regarding mineral, hydropower and tourism financial powers to the governments of AJK and G- sectors, were shifted to the GB Assembly while all B; retention of the AJK and G-B Councils as advisory federal taxes had been suspended and the name of bodies; and the grant of a five-year tax holiday to the Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly had been 27 G-B so as to create adequate incentives for the replaced with the Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly. In development of the region and bring it at par with June, President Mamnoon Hussain approved the other areas of Pakistan.”24 Subsequently, a joint Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) Reforms Order 2018, replacing sitting of the Azad Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly and the AJK Council in June approved

23 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1644732/1-pml-n-ppp- 26 https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/320063- agree-abolish-ajk-parliaments-upper-house/ cabinet-approves-placement-of-draft-amendment-for- 24 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1714028/1-nsc- fata-s-mergerbefore-parliament meeting-called-amid-rising-loc-tensions/ 27 https://www.dawn.com/news/1409226/new-law- 25 https://www.dawn.com/news/1411417 promises-more-political-judicial-powers-to-gilgit- baltistan

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 the old GB Self Governance Order 200928 but the giving provincial status to Gilgit-Baltistan is due to order was rejected by the political parties in GB its implications on Pakistan’s case on overall issue who were demanding granting provincial status to of Jammu and Kashmir as government believes GB. The same month, Gilgit-Baltistan Supreme that granting provincial status to GB will weaken its Appellate Court suspended Gilgit-Baltistan Order case at international arena. Although AJK and GB 2018,29 but the government challenged the are part of disputed territory of Kashmir and their decision in Supreme Court of Pakistan on the political future is to be decided by the people of ground that the Supreme Appellate Court had no Kashmir as a whole either in the form of UNSC jurisdiction to challenge the decision of the federal mandated plebiscite or through any other government.30 Now the Supreme Court of mechanism proposed and agreed to between Pakistan, after hearing the arguments of all Pakistan, India and Kashmiris, the option of relevant stakeholders, reserved its verdict on a granting more autonomy to these regions is right plea regarding the constitutional, administrative of the citizen as depriving them of such rights will and governance reforms for Gilgit-Baltistan.31 create more problem than to resolve any. Till the During the course of hearing, federal government time final determination of Kashmir is decided, has reportedly shown its intention to grant Pakistan may also consider reserving seats in provisional provincial status to G-B. It is yet to be National Assembly as well as in Senate for AJK and seen how Supreme Court would take the case and GB so that chosen representatives of these two decide future of reforms process in G-B. regions also have their say in broader national as well as issues of foreign policy. In 18th Constitutional Amendment, federating units were given greater autonomy but the case of AJK and GB was entirely different since these two are only under administrative control of Pakistan and do not form part of the federation.

Reluctance on the part of federal government to

About the Author: Mr. Gul Dad is a counter-terrorism, security and foreign policy expert and currently serves as Director Research & HR of Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies

28 https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2018/06/02/gb- 30 https://pamirtimes.net/2018/07/01/islamabad- order-2018-comes-into-effect-after-presidents- challenges-gb-order-2018-suspension-in-supreme- approval/ court-of-pakistan/ 29 https://pamirtimes.net/2018/06/21/supreme- 31 https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/415897-sc- appellate-court-suspends-gilgit-baltistan-order-2018/ reserves-verdict-on-constitutional-status-of-gilgit- baltistan

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

BLASPHEMY ISSUE: ACTION NEEDED LOCALLY AS WELL AS INTERNATIONALLY

Ali Hussain & Gul Dad

Blasphemy issue is increasingly becoming that were sentenced by the ATC, JUI-F will hold bone of contention and one of the reasons for protests.33 Similarly, on 9 February, thousands of growing extremism in the society as well as members of the Tahaffuz Khatm-i-Nabuwat creating divide among various religious Organisation, Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) and Jamiat communities at the global stage. In 2018, courts in Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) joined by locals Pakistan made some bold verdicts. On 7 February, participated in the protest in Mardan pressuring an anti-terrorism court (ATC) handed down death the government into releasing the 31 men sentence to a man and life sentence to five others convicted in killing of Mashal Khan.34 in the murder case of Mashal Khan who was lynched by a mob at Abdul Wali Khan University in From societal point of view, extreme 2017 over allegations of blasphemy. The judge positions of the people associated with religious awarded 25 persons four-year imprisonment each. political parties is quite dangerous and pose Reportedly, 26 others suspects were exonerated serious challenge for the society in addition to by the ATC.32 causing a sense of insecurity among religious minorities. The state will have to remain firm in its The most troublesome aspect was the stance and must ensure that wrong doers are not reaction from people associated with religious- only punished but it is also responsibility of the political parties. Reportedly, a large group of state of taking measures that could help reduce Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam Fazl (JUI-F) chanted slogans such tensions in addition to persuade people to act against the slain Mashal Khan. Reportedly, a JUI-F rationally and with restraints, which are norms of worker said that they had congregated there to the civilized world and completely consistent with "welcome" the 26 "heroes" who had been teachings of Islam. Unanimous Fatwas like acquitted by the ATC. Addressing the crowd, JUI- Phaigam-e-Pakistan announced in early 2018 hold F's provincial general secretary Maulana Shujaul little importance when opinion of people at large Mulk criticised the government for supporting the is being hijacked by the few having irrational and verdict. Another provincial party leader warned extremist tendencies. Being a silent spectator in that if the government did not release the convicts

32 https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/278181-one- 33 https://www.dawn.com/news/1387937/jui-f- gets-death-26-life-sentence workers-in-mardan-protest-mashal-khan-case-verdict- welcome-acquitted-heroes 34 https://www.dawn.com/news/1388351

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 such circumstances for the state is a dangerous was somewhat resolved after intervention of proposition. administration and an agreement between Ahmadi and Muslim communities was signed agreeing not Amid strong opposition by the Jamiat to give religious colour to personal disputes. Both Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl, (JUI-F), the Senate human the sides agreed not to deliver provocative rights committee on 6 March recommended that speeches or make announcements (against each anyone falsely accusing a person of blasphemy other) in mosques or the worship places.37 The should be awarded a similar punishment reaction of masses (300-400 people belonging to prescribed for a convict of blasphemy. “It is also Muslim community) to ransack the worship place recommended that anyone accusing somebody of of Ahmediyya demonstrates the religious blasphemy should come up with two witnesses to intolerance in the society. The main question is corroborate his claim,” said Pakistan People’s why a petty issue between two individuals was Party Senator Farhatullah Babar while reading out given a religious colour and why it led to this recommendations of the Senate’s functional deplorable act. In the past, there were also committee on Human Rights. According to the instances where such petty issue and personal fight recommendations, any person who registers a between two individuals of different religions false case under Section 295-C of the Pakistan ended up in a tussle between religious Penal Code should be handed the same communities. Also, there were instances when punishment as provided for offenders of blasphemy law of the country was exploited for 35 blasphemy. Senate is yet to deliberate and settling personal scores. legislate on the issue and it might take bit longer to do so as the environment is not conducive post As PICSS recommended previously, there is supreme Court verdict on Asia Bibi case. a dire need to conduct a study to measure level of intolerance, identify their causes and then take Reportedly, on 30 August, 19 people were steps to address them. The government, religious wounded in an attack on a place of worship leaders and civil society need to work towards belonging to the Ahmadi community in Ghaseet making this country religiously more tolerant, Pura near Faisalabad. According to police, the which is completely in line with teachings of Holy unfortunate incident which took place in Chak 69- Quran as well as enshrined in country’s RB, began with a quarrel over a petty issue constitution. On the part of minority groups, there between Ahmadis and Muslims. The worship place is need to realize that giving religious touch to was ransacked and some of its items were set on personal disputes vitiate the environment and fire following an exchange of gunfire. The issue hence should be avoided for inter-faith harmony. started on non-religious ground on a petty issue of rooster-fight ended up pitching two-religious Pakistan has witnessed a lot of violence on communities against each.36 However, the issue the issue of blasphemy. The lynching of Mashal

35 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1652775/1-senate- 37 https://www.dawn.com/news/1430831/faisalabad- committee-suggests-death-false-accusers/ communal-violence-ahmadi-muslim-communities-sign- 36 https://www.dawn.com/news/1428784/18-hurt-as- accord-for-peace place-of-worship-attacked-in-faisalabad

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Khan in KPK by a mob on fictitious allegations of masses. Political parties will have to come out of blasphemy is one of the examples while we have electoral politics to address the issue head-on. seen killing of former Governor Punjab Salman Taseer by his bodyguard on the same issue as he At International Level, Dutch Freedom was being criticized for taking up the issue of a Party anti-Islam politician Geert Wilders planned Christian girl Asia Bibi and criticizing blasphemy holding a competition of cartoons depicting the 38 law and its application on concocted cases. Prophet Mohammad (PBUH) and the issue sent a Unfortunately, religious-right in Pakistan adopted shockwave across the Muslim world, especially in a quite irrational approach when it comes to Pakistan. Tehreek-e-Laibaik Pakistan (TLP), dealing with the issue of blasphemy law. There is announced to a "decisive march" from Lahore to no denying the fact that honour and respect of the Islamabad and pledged to stay on the streets until Holy Prophet (PBUH) is part and parcel of belief of either the publication of blasphemous cartoons in every Muslim irrespective of his/her religious the Netherlands end or the govt immediately ends 39 inclination, there is also sufficient evidence to diplomatic ties with the Dutch". TLP started its suggest that the existing law has been misused for march towards Islamabad and only called it off personal enmity particularly against religious once an announcement was made by Dutch 40 minorities. politician to cancel the event. Pakistan lodged a strong protest with Netherland. Federal cabinet While the government is not only required had also "strongly condemned this abominable to create awareness among masses through and reprehensible plan," in its maiden meeting.41 concerted efforts including reaching out to The competition was later cancelled but before religious communities/ leaders. The decision of that Dutch prime minister on 24 August distanced Senate Committee that anyone falsely accusing a his government from the competition and person of blasphemy should be awarded a similar questioned Wilders’ motive for organizing the punishment prescribed for a convict of blasphemy contest, saying “his aim is not to have a debate is a step-in right decision but could only be about Islam. His aim is to be provocative.” legislated and implemented after support from However, he added that people in the Netherlands have far-reaching freedom of speech rights. “This man, Geert Wilders, is known for testing the limits

38 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands- 40 wilders-mohammed-cartoons/dutch-anti-islam-party- https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ to-hold-prophet-mohammad-cartoon-competition- muhammad-cartoon-competition-cancelled-geert- idUSKBN1J81ZN wilders-netherlands-a8515801.html 39 https://www.dawn.com/news/1429078/tlp-to- 41 https://www.dawn.com/news/1428217/pakistan- march-towards-islamabad-against-blasphemous- records-protest-with-netherlands-against- cartoon-competition-in-netherland blasphemous-cartoon-competition

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 of freedom of expression. He is free to do that”.42 the issue is bound to be exploited by militant groups for years to come for recruiting and While PICSS strongly believes in freedom motivating people against the west subsequently of expression provided that such freedom does not resulting into a chain reaction cycle. The world cross certain limits and revered religious needs to look into the matter and find a way out. personalities of all religions are few of the red-lines Individuals as well as nations need to cognizant of that should never be crossed. In this regard, United religious sensitivities of people. There is dire need Nations as well as members of international for enacting legislations on such issue as has been community need to develop a mechanism that done in most of the western countries regarding such freedom of expression is not exploited for Holocaust, which actually helped in reducing inter- some vested interests and vent anger against any religious tensions among various religious religious community. communities.

In addition to anger among general public,

About the Authors: Mr. Ali Hussain is a Ph.D. scholar and currently serves as Research Associate at Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies. Mr. Gul Dad is a counter-terrorism, security and foreign policy expert and currently serves as Director Research & HR at Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies.

42 contest/2018/08/24/96fb09bc-a7ac-11e8-ad6f- https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/ 080770dcddc2_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term= dutch-premier-distances-govt-from-anti-islam-cartoon- .9236d079afb9

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ISSUE OF MISSING-PERSONS; RETROSPECTION REQUIRED

Gul Dad

The missing-persons issue, with a varying disappearance is a “heinous offence” and officials intensity, has remained a concern in Pakistan involved in such crime should be “proceeded throughout country’s fight against militancy for against for misconduct besides criminal almost two decades. The issue has been mostly in proceedings”.43 IHC also penalised a retired three- higher intensity in conflict zones/ troubled areas star general and several civilian officials in the case like Balochistan, FATA, KPK and somehow Karachi. of a missing person and directed them to pay one- However, the issue has also come to notice though time fine while ordering the state to pay monthly of a much lessor scale in non-conflict zones across compensation to missing man’s heirs.44 In another the country. In Balochistan, this issue created a gulf judgement in November 2018, IHC in a case of between state institutions and the ethnic Baloch missing person Abdullah Omar ordered deduction militants although the issue is increasingly of half salary of secretary interior, secretary decreasing probably due to decline in insurgency. defence, Inspector General Police (IGP) of In FATA, the issue is still ripe and continues to Islamabad, Joint Investigation Team (JIT) members, remain one of the bones of contentions between Station House Officer (SHO) and investigation military and Pakistan Tahafaz Movement (PTM). officer every month. The judge stated that unless The issue of missing-persons is real though counts the missing person was recovered, the accountant of these missing people could always be found general should continue deduction of half of the exaggerated. If one could ask the exact list of salary. A fine of Rs2 million was also imposed on missing persons with their contact details, most of secretaries for interior, defence, IGP Islamabad, JIT the protesting parties in Balochistan and FATA will and officers concerned. The court directed that the mute. But the issue exists and society as well as fine and deducted salaries should be given to the courts have already raised voice against it. wife of the missing person. Justice Kayani said if the missing person was not recovered for six months, In December, Commission of Inquiry on the case of officers concerned should be sent to Enforced Disappearances stated to have disposed the prime minister who should initiate of 3,492 out of 5,608 cases up to November 30, departmental action against them according to the 2018 suggesting that efforts are being made to law.45 resolve the issue but the issue still persists. Notably, Islamabad High Court (IHC) in missing Missing persons are either in the custody persons case has ruled that enforced of security forces or went somewhere at their own

43 https://www.dawn.com/news/1417134/enforced- 45 https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/397855- disappearance-a-heinous-offence-ihc missing-person-case-secretaries-igp-to-get-half-salary- 44 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1755563/1-ihc- until-recovery-says-ihc imposes-fine-retired-general-civilian-officials/

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 will (many such instances already seen when evidence. Now the question is how security forces people considered missing joined militant groups) should deal with such situation. Their somehow or has been held by non-state actors but no such natural choice remains to detain such persons. But claim has been seen from the militants’ side. can there be a possibility of quickly revamping Normally detention of someone on suspicions/ so- judicial system and till that time desist from called proves of involvement in militancy is most detaining someone extra-judicially. But this will likely. Security forces indulge in these activities then make an allowance for freed individual to primarily due to lack of legally tenable evidence either go out of reach or engage in activities that that could prove their case against the person(s) in are detrimental to society. PICSS believes that let court of law and results in acquittal of accused. the society bear the cost (the cost of inefficiency Thus, security forces detain such persons mostly on on the part of state institutions) or the officials as intelligence information which are at time not so was ruled by Islamabad High Court despite the fact developed or if developed they cannot that it is definitely higher than cost that individual automatically become legally tenable evidence in was paying but transferring cost to the society the court of law. Here the capacity of the security instead of individual would be extremely justified. forces to collect evidence also comes under This will compel society to react and react fast. In questioning. In addition, prosecution is time- state-individual relation, an individual is deemed consuming process requiring attention and innocent until proven otherwise and not the vice resources, including quality human resources, versa. State institutions need to revisit their which most of times relevant institutions lack. arguments and rationale. There are serious issues with Pakistan’s judicial system and no one can deny this fact. In this scenario, security forces find it expedient opting for extra-judicial measures. Hence the question of someone being the wrong one in the eyes of security forces cannot pass the test of the courts primarily due to the judicial system and the law

About the Author: Mr. Gul Dad is a counter-terrorism, security and foreign policy expert and currently serves as Director Research & HR at Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

BLASPHEMY LAW AND COURT’S VERDICT ON ASIA BIBI: DELIBERATIONS NEEDED

Gul Dad

In Pakistan, blasphemy issue continued in for death penalty for anyone found guilty of the headlines throughout the year for one reason defaming the Holy Prophet (peace be upon him).48 or the other while it was also seen rearing its head Notably, Islamabad High Court had also ordered internationally. that those who make false accusations of blasphemy should be given the same punishment Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI-F) on 10 October as those convicted of blasphemy under the law. On opposed any amendments to the blasphemy law, 8 October, a special three-member bench of the which was under discussion in a meeting of the Supreme Court reserved its judgement on the final Senate Standing Committee for Information and appeal against the execution of Asia Bibi, a Technology. JUI-F said that the blasphemy law had Christian woman sentenced to death for previously "taken a lot of lives, and if anyone tries blasphemy49 while Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) to touch it, they will be the ones held responsible on 12 October warned of paralyzing the country if for any damage caused." As a result of the walkout, the Supreme Court sets free Asia Bibi50 with the the committee's meeting was adjourned intention to influence court’s decision. indefinitely.46 It may be noted that Council of Islamic Ideology in September 2013 had suggested Aasia Bibi’s case has brought country to a to amend the law to give death penalty for those stand-still for at least three days once the Supreme people who are accused of false accusations.47 Court in its landmark judgement on 31 October Similarly, a Senate committee in March 2018 had acquitted Aasia Bibi and set aside earlier forwarded recommendations to the Council of judgments passed by subordinate courts. Chief Islamic Ideology (CII) for its comments on misuse Justice Saqib Nisar, heading the three-member of blasphemy law. The Senate Functional bench comprising Justice Asif Saeed Khosa and Committee on Human Rights recommended that Justice Mazhar Alam Khan Miankhel, set aside the the offender who registered a false case (under conviction and set her free. Christian woman was Section 295C of the Pakistan Penal Code) should be on the death row since November 2010 after she given the same punishment as provided for the was convicted on charges of committing offence under this section. Section 295C provides blasphemy during an argument with two Muslim

46 https://www.dawn.com/news/1438122/jui-f- 48 https://www.dawn.com/news/1393715 senator-haidri-says-will-block-any-amendment-to- 49 https://www.dawn.com/news/1437605 blasphemy-law 50 https://www.dawn.com/news/1438699/tlp- 47 https://nation.com.pk/19-Sep-2013/cii-suggests- threatens-to-paralyse-country-if-aasia-bibi-is-acquitted amends-to-blasphemy-laws-proposes-death-penalty- for-making-false-accusations

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 women in Sheikhupura. Her case gained private property, torched vehicles mostly prominence after then Punjab governor Salmaan belonging to poor masses, beaten civilians and law Taseer pleaded for a retrial of her case and was enforcement agencies personnel, and killed two subsequently shot dead by one of his guards, members of Tableghi Jamat (a non-violent Mumtaz Qadri, in January 2011. Bibi challenged missionary organisation). the verdict in October 2014, however, the Lahore High Cout upheld the death sentence. Supreme In his short address to the nation, Prime court had stayed the execution in July 2015.51 Minister Imran Khan late on 31 October issued a stark warning to religiopolitical groups that have The Supreme Court verdict on Aasia Bibi been agitating against the Supreme Court verdict created a storm in the country and mostly the to acquit Asia Bibi. He said he had been right-wing segment of society took to the streets in "compelled" to communicate with the nation due protest but more organised response was seen to the reaction given and language used by a "small from Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) whose segment" in response to the SC verdict. Pakistan supporters took to the streets in several parts of was founded "in the name of Islam" and the verdict the country causing road blockages in Karachi, given by the SC is in accordance with the Lahore and Islamabad. Although government did Constitution, which is in line with the teachings of impose section 144 yet without any impact. In the Holy Quran and sunnah, he said. He sharply Lahore, the main protest led by TLP chief Khadim criticised the protests that broke out across the Hussain Rizvi was staged at the Charing Cross close country in response to the judgement, saying to the Punjab Assembly and 25 different locations, people's livelihood was being harmed through the effectively blocking roads and paralyzing vehicular roadblocks and demonstrations. The premier traffic across Lahore. In Islamabad, Faizabad, regretted the language used by hardliners against Aabpara, and Kashmir Highway adjacent to SC judges, the raising of questions against the army Aabpara were blocked by protesters. Traffic was chief's faith and the call for a rebellion amongst the blocked at 14 points across Karachi by the armed forces. In a stern warning to the extremist protesters. Protests were also being staged in elements, the prime minister asked such elements Gujranwala, Layyah, Chishtian, Mansehra, Mirpur not to clash with the state, otherwise state will in Azad Kashmir and other cities. In addition to TLP, take action.52 An electronic media blackout of the other religious-political parties including Jamaat-e- issue and related developments was placed to Islami, Jamat Ullema Islam (Fazal), JUI(S), Tanzim- avoid rumours and more unrest but the social e-Islami (TI), Sunni Tehrik, Jamaatud Dawah, etc media, with all its drawbacks of rumours and lies, also criticised the verdict and held protests across was completely open to aggravate trouble. the country. Worst part of the story was the utter Federal government decided to negotiate with the chaos and lawlessness in almost all major cities of protesting religious-political parties after an the country where protesters damaged public and

51 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1837746/1-security- 52 https://www.dawn.com/news/1442630/do-not- beefed-sc-prepares-announce-aasia-bibi-verdict/ clash-with-the-state-pm-khan-issues-stern-warning-to- agitators-after-asia-bibi-verdict

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 emergency meeting of the federal cabinet.53 On 2 judges and the army chief was derogatory, November, Tehree-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) called threatening and unacceptable. Protest is a natural off its countrywide protest sit-ins following and constitutionally guaranteed right but the reaching of an agreement with the federal and behaviour shown by TLP was crossing all limits Punjab governments.54 questioning the existing or presence of the state itself. It was as if the group itself was the accuser, In the whole saga, two issues were of very prosecutor as well as judge and interested to get higher significance. One was the judgement itself its “judgement” implemented what it deemed fit. and the second was the violent response from a The response of the government to those violent certain segment of society. First the judgement, protest also raised questions but the later which snatched Aasia Bibi from the hanging noose developments suggested that the government on sound legal footings with the plea that evidence moved with caution as sentiments were high and against the accused of her committing the any use of force at that point in time might have blasphemy is not conclusive and at times aggravated the situation. After the agreement and contradictory and full of other legal lacunas. One once protests ended, Information Minister, on 4 can question that if the judgement of the top court November, warned that the government would was based on justice, what were the status of not turn a blind eye to, nor forget, the inciteful decisions of trial court and high court who speeches made by religio-political leaders during convicted her with capital punishment. Were protests against the acquittal of Asia Bibi."55 On 5 those decisions announced under pressure? If the November, Information Minister said the decision of the Supreme Court was correct, why government is preparing a strategy to tackle Aasia Bibi remained in jail and suffered for almost violent protests and hate speech on sensitive a decade without committing a crime. And if Aasia religious issues “without flexing state muscles”. He Bib did not commit the blasphemy then people said the federal and provincial governments were who alleged her of the crime had actually busy identifying miscreants who damaged public committed it by falsely accusing someone else. and private properties and injured people during the three-day countrywide protests.56 The second aspect was the response of a specific segment of society to the acquittal of Aasia On the other hand, Tehreek-e-Laibaik Bibi from the top court. The response was violent, Pakistan (TLP) remained in the defying mood and unsocial, non-civic, undemocratic, uncivilized, its patron-in-chief Pir Mohammad Afzal Qadri on 5 rebellious, and the language used against the

53 55 https://www.dawn.com/news/1443536/govt-will- https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2018/11/01/feder not-turn-blind-eye-to-protesters-inciteful-statements- al-govt-to-negotiate-with-protesters-media-reports/ asserts-fawad-chaudhry 54 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1839319/1-tlp- 56 https://www.dawn.com/news/1443846/strategy- reaches-agreement-govt-end-countrywide-protest-sit/ being-made-to-curb-violent-protests-hate-speech- minister

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

November warned of retaliation if “violations of Tehreek-i-Insaf in 2014 after the party had staged the agreement between the party and the a sit-in despite the losses of public property. In a government do not stop immediately” and tweet message, JUI-F chief criticised the threatened to come on the roads again.57 A top government for sedation charges against TLP national huddle also deliberated on the issue when leadership and expressed full support to TLP for National Security Committee (NSC) met with PM the cause of “honor of Prophet (PBUH)”.61 Imran in chair and attended by the services chiefs and senior cabinet members and made it clear that Learning from the previous experience, “progress and prosperity of Pakistan lies in peace, the government this time sprang into action and stability and rule of law”. 58 The emphasis of rule of made considerably better policy of dealing with law indicated a possible action against TLP and its the TLP protest. Top leadership of the TLP was top leadership. The opposition also critised the arrested on 23 November ahead of their planned government for inaction against TLP’s tirade protest rally on 25 November as the party planned against the institutions.59 On 1 December, for and urged its cadres to come on road/streets Information minister Fawad Chaudhry announced and completely jam the country. Had the protest that top leadership of TLP has been charged with allowed the way it was planned, it would definitely treason and terrorism charges at various places have caused so much unease for general public in across the country as the government earlier on addition to losses to economy while the prospects November 23, had taken top leadership of the TLP of the protest turning violent were also high. in custody while also cracking down on its workers However, the new policy of full restrictions on TLP across the country.60 Criticising the government’s leadership could have only short-term benefits as move to the cause or thinking behind such protests clearly exists which could not be done away without a on 2 December sought pardon for TLP long-term policy aimed at fighting extremism in leaders and apologised on behalf of the TLP society and working towards rule of law. leaders to prime minister, army chief and chief Opposition political parties, especially far-right justice for issuing contemptuous statements section, would find it convenient to up the ante against them. He urged the authorities to show against the government on the issue for accruing leniency towards the TLP leaders and workers just political objectives. For the larger good of the like they had showed towards the Pakistan society, a national debate in the parliament should

57 https://www.dawn.com/news/1443846/strategy- 60 https://www.dawn.com/news/1448807/tlp-leader- being-made-to-curb-violent-protests-hate-speech- khadim-hussain-rizvi-charged-with-treason-terrorism- minister information-minister 58 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1841824/1-nsc- 61 https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/we-stand-with- huddle-pakistans-stability-lies-rule-law/ khadim-rizvi-maulana-fazul-ur-rehman-traitor.589783/ 59 https://www.dawn.com/news/1443971/in-senate- opposition-parties-criticise-government-for-not-being- forceful-enough-in-dealing-with-tlp

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 be initiated with the view to develop a consensus intolerance in the society needs to be first and understanding in such a way that past ascertained and then policy measures be adopted mistakes are forgiven with a renewed pledge for to address them. remaining non-violent and peaceful on issues of political as well as religious discard. In the process, stringent laws to deal with those who turn violent in protests should also be devised. On societal level, the possible causes for ever increasing About the Author: Mr. Gul Dad is a counter-terrorism, security and foreign policy expert and currently serves as Director Research & HR at Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FIRST 100 DAYS OF PML-N AND PTI GOVERNMENTS

Hassam Siddiqui Introduction

The year 2018 was an election year in been discussed at length in PTI’s election Pakistan in which Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) manifesto. The politico-economic environment was able to secure a marginal victory and form the under which these two parties took the reign of the government. The party was able to secure 116 government was not entirely different as when general seats in the General Elections held on 25 PML-N came into government, the economy of the July and so it had to form alliances with the other country was in dire strait so condition of the parties in order to form the government at the economy was entirely different when PTI came into centre. PTI’s slogan of change and Naya Pakistan power though the issue of economy might be of consisted of seven major issues to be addressed. different nature. However, the issue of terrorism These included transforming governance, and energy crisis when PML-N government came strengthening the federation, an inclusive into power in 2013 was comparatively much bigger. economic growth, uplifting the agriculture, A comparative analysis of performance of both the building dams and conserving water resources, governments in some key areas during their first ensuring Pakistan’s national security and 100 days is being presented here. revolutionizing social services. These all issues had First 100 Days of PML(N) Government

Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz PML(N) basic agenda was given in the PML (N) election assumed office after securing victory in 2013 manifesto, which included economic revival of the general elections. The party came in power with country, energy security, agriculture and food the slogan of “Strong Economy-Strong Pakistan”. A security, and a new framework for social change

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 which included working on the issues of education, terrorism, etc.62 PML (N) had to take bold decisions health, women, youth, sports and minorities, on the major issue of insurgency in Baluchistan, democratic governance, science and technology, gang war and target killings in Karachi, war against employment challenge, media art and culture, a terror on the western border of the country, and charter for inter-provincial harmony, speedy and intense relations with India. PML-N performance in inexpensive justice, corruption and accountability, first 100 days was as follows: foreign policy and national security, militancy and Political Stability: PML-N was able to secure 126 seats of National Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and Baluchistan, Assembly and after making alliances with the other allowing them to form governments there which political parties, it was able to form the was a source of strengthening the country's government at the centre. PML (N) government democratic culture. respected the mandate of the rival parties in the Economic Stability: PML (N) government with its Finance Minister direct investment (FDI) in the first two month of Ishaq Dar was able to secure an IMF package within the fiscal year 2013/14 compared to $52.4 million first 55 days after assuming the office. Additionally, received during the same months of fiscal year PM Nawaz Sharif himself visited China and was 2012-13. Keeping the view, the confidence of the able to sign a number of agreements. Pakistan was business community in the government, a bullish also able to have around $105.4 million foreign trend was witnessed in the stock market. Energy Sector: This was one of the major issues for the increasing power generation from 12,200 government as the country was facing severe megawatts to 26,800 megawatts and reducing power crisis. The government had paid $5billion to average electricity rates from Rs14.70 to Rs10 per power companies to buy more fuel and utilize unit by shifting the burden from thermal to hydel better generating capacity of electricity in order to power plants and switching to cheaper alternative overcome the issue. The government also fuel such as coal.63 Energy security was considered envisaged a new energy policy to bring an end to critical factor for revival of economy. Though PML power outages within three years besides phasing (N) achieved its short-term objectives of reducing out electricity subsidies for all but domestic power shortage, crisis of balance of payment consumers using up to 300 units a month, though between the energy producing companies and the it remained a myth. The new policy also envisaged government remained unresolved. Counter Terrorism Strategy:

62 http://pmo.gov.pk/documents/manifesto.pdf 63 https://tribune.com.pk/story/569956/new-energy- policy-govt-to-end-blackouts-in-three-years/

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

During the tenure of PPP (2008-2013), factors that conditions for talks were set. Within security situation of the country remained worst 100 days of his government, the premier on 9 and the trend continued when PML-N came into September chaired an All Parties Conference in power. The then PM Nawaz Sharif announced to which he urged the political parties to develop a initiate "peace talks" with the militant groups consensus on how to deal with the issue of rather than using force. PTI government which militancy though no formal strategy of dealing with governed the volatile province of Khyber the militants could be announced within first 100 Pakhtunkhwa, also opposed talks with the days but the government was seen serious in militants. The "reconciliatory approach" of the new dealing with the issue. government could be considered as one of the First 100 days of PTI Government:

The first 100 days of Imran Khan's respectively. Steps were taken towards reforming premiership began on 18 August 2018 as he took state-owned institutions, reviving the tourism oath as the 22nd Prime Minister of Pakistan. PTI’s industry, building of five million houses for the first 100 days had more symbolic significance than poor, complete renovation of the taxation system, the previous democratic governments, as the party fixing the energy challenge, revitalizing the had announced a "100-day agenda" months before manufacturing sector and boosting business the general elections. This period was considered a friendly infrastructure, though with a new team foundation stone for the next five years in order to coming in to power and Imran Khan being an in- tackle with the critical economic situation of the experienced Prime Minister, PTI government is country as well as deliver the pre-election facing serious hurdles and difficulties to pursue its promises that PTI government had made with the agenda and fulfil its promises. PTI has been unable voters. PTI 100 days plan included creation of a to deliver its first 100 days agenda completely new province in Southern Punjab, reconciliation primarily due to lack of home work in addition to with alienated Baloch leaders, development lacking majority in both the house of the of Karachi, poverty alleviation, and economic parliament. The accountability process also revival. The plan included a jumbo development created rifts between the government and other package for FATA to which other provinces will political parties in the parliament that resulted in contribute three percent of their share. PTI political bickering as the accountability process is government’s election promise of accountability alleged to be not impartial and that it is being used was very seriously pursued during the first 100 for political victimization. Few major issues have days. In addition, PM Imran Khan himself visited been discussed below highlighting the Saudi Arabia and UAE and secured an economic performance of PTI government. package of worth $6 billion and $3 billion Political Environment: PTI won 116 seats in the National assembly, so it parties having small representation in the national needed support of other political parties to form assembly. Imran Khan ultimately secured his the government. Highly intensive talks were held premiership after getting 176 votes in the national between PTI and leadership of various provincial assembly. Despite coming in to power, PTI could

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 not achieve political stability in the country due to threatened to boycott all the committees if PAC the process of accountability it had initiated. Cases chairmanship is not given to opposition as per on the leaders of opposition parties including parliamentary tradition. This resulted in almost Nawaz Sharif, Shahbaz Sharif, Asif Zardari and standstill on legislative work. Now the issue of PAC Bilawal Bhutto Zardari were pursued in the NAB membership has been resolved and committees of court. Government and opposition parties could the national assembly have been formed but the not develop a consensus on the Chairman of Public government is likely to face serious hurdles in accounts committee (PAC) that delayed the legislative work particularly when it does not formation of sub-committees as the opposition majority in the Senate. Accountability: The government of PTI has though laid out its and anti-money laundering. Secondly, Pakistan legislative agenda ranging from strengthening the signed a Justice and Accountability partnership National Accountability Bureau (NAB) law to agreement with the United Kingdom entailing bringing back plundered wealth stashed abroad, substantial financial and operational support by UK however a major issue is the lack of parliamentary government for recovery of unlawful wealth. support due to number game in the parliament as Thirdly the government traced over USD 5.3 billion PTI government has a marginal superiority in of wealth of Pakistani overseas. It also signed and national assembly while it lacks simple majority in ratified bilateral treaty with Switzerland for the Senate thus the party faces serious challenge of exchange of financial information, and initiated the legislation on accountability laws. The non- process of bilateral treaties on extradition and reconciliatory approach of the government further Mutual Legal Assistance with UK, UAE, and China.64 “ensured” that no such support from other Despite all these measures, opposition had been opposition parties could be expected. criticizing government as well as NAB for its one- Nevertheless, Special Assistant to the Prime sided accountability and not treating the sitting Minister on accountability established an Assets government federal ministers, the way opposition Recovery Unit with representation from FIA, NAB, has been treated. FBR, SBP/FMU and experts on white collar crime Economy crisis: When PTI came into power, the major hurdle it with the same once the party into power. However, faced was the multifaceted economic crisis initiation of talks with the IMF could not be started including depleting foreign exchange reserves, immediately due to indecisiveness on the part of balance of payment issue and swelling circular the government as it started process of seeking debt. While the PTI government has always been financial assistance from other friendly countries. opposing loans from IMF, it had to initiate talks This indecisiveness on the part of the government

64 http://pm100days.pmo.gov.pk/downloads/100%20Da ys%20Progress%20Report.pdf

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 sent negative signals as it was treated by the package from UAE.65 It was said that China has also market as lack of economic plan that was clearly provided assistance to the country, though its visible from continued bearish trend in the stock details were not made public. Increased taxes, ever market. PM Imran Khan went to China, Saudi growing inflation, unstable dollar, and increased Arabia, UAE and Malaysia to seek economic imports with lesser exports have manifestly assistance from these states. The government was showed the failure of PTI government in managing ultimately able to secure a $6 billion-dollar a falling economy. package from Saudi Arabia and $3 billion-dollar

Conclusion

While more time is required for the experience and an idealistic vision could not implementation of PTI's ambitious reform agenda, perform the way, it had set the expectations. PTI’s it can be said that the performance of the PML-N rigid stance of pursuing accountability has government was comparatively better in the 100 increased their own difficulties in the parliament. days of assuming the office though their activities Additionally, several controversies of PTI leaders were short term and could not serve the country’s surfaced through the social media. However, it is economy, political structure, law and order hoped that PTI’s governance would improve in the situation and governance issues in the long run. On long run and that the party would be able to meet the other hand, PTI because of its lack of the expectations of common Pakistanis.

About the Author: Mr. Hassam Siddiqi is a Ph. D scholar and foreign policy expert. He currently serves as Director Programs at Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies

65 https://fp.brecorder.com/2018/11/20181129427191/

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

SECTION-III Pakistan’s Relations with Regional and Key

International Players

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

TROUBLES IN KASHMIR AND INDIA-PAKISTAN RELATIONS

Gul Dad

India-Pakistan continued to remain hostile process, India continued her policy of avoiding throughout the year 2018 and expectations of talks on one pretext or the other. In Kashmir, India engagement after change of government in went further ahead in testing the resolve of Pakistan remained a pipe dream. While some Kashmiris and silencing them through use of force positive steps and fresh efforts were seen from at the cost of human losses and ensuing unrest. Pakistan to convince India to resume dialogue Hostility and Uneasy Borders

The year started with a statement from minister, India committed 170 ceasefire violations Indian Army Chief General Bipin Rawat, who on 12 along the Line of Control (LoC) and Working January 2018 said that Indian force was ready to Boundary (WB) in the first 24 days of 201868 which call Pakistan’s “nuclear bluff” and cross the border gone as high as 190 till 5th February.69 The trend of to carry out any operation if asked by the ceasefire violations continued throughout the year government.66 The statement of Indian army chief with both sides blaming each other. Pakistan elicited strong response from Pakistan in general claimed that India increased the ceasefire and Pakistani military in particular as DG ISPR violations in 2018 and figured jumped to an condemned the statement and said, "Should they unprecedent 2312 ceasefire violations in 2018 in wish to test our resolve they may try and see it for which 35 civilians were killed 135 others were themselves. We have a credible nuclear capability injured while 1970 such incidents on line of control exclusive[ly] meant for threat[s] from [the] East."67 and working boundary were reported.70 On the In the meanwhile ceasefire violations on LoC and other hand, India claimed that Pakistan committed WB intensified with heavy losses on Pakistani side. 2936 ceasefire violations in which 61 people were The severity of the situation can be gauged from killed and 250 others were injured.71 There is no the fact that, according to Pakistan’s foreign independent mechanism to verify claims of both

66 http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/ready- 69 https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/277354- to-call-pakistan-s-nuclear-bluff-army-chief-bipin- pakistan-summons-indian-deputy-high-commissioner- rawat/story-4IaODMvEShEFoDLs1VSpLJ.html over-ceasefire-violations 67 https://www.dawn.com/news/1382691/pakistans- 70 https://thefrontierpost.com/ceasefire-violations-by- nuclear-capability-a-weapon-of-deterrence-dg-ispr- india/ responds-to-indian-armychief 71 68 https://www.dawn.com/news/1385405 https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/national

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 the sides particularly when India does not allow suggesting that Indian political leadership was UNMOGIP to operate on India administered more interested to keep the LoC hot and tensions Kashmir. However, it is clear that ceasefire high in bilateral context. Pakistan reacted strongly violations are part of the problem and inflicting to Indian Home Minister statement/ threat to losses to civilians on both the sides. cross LOC and advised New Delhi, “to end this constant blustering and to stop creating an On 15 March, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister atmosphere of war mongering” adding “Pakistan Khawaja Asif asserted that Islamabad does not wants peace with India but any foolhardy act "expect" any improvement in relations with New would only get a befitting response.”75 Delhi as long as the Indian army continues to violate the ceasefire agreement along the Line of On 29 May during a hotline contact Control (LoC) and the Working Boundary.72 between Director General Military Operations Pakistan also decided not to attend a World Trade (DGMOs) of the two countries, it was decided to Organization (WTO) meeting hosted by India.73 In fully implement the ceasefire understanding of the meanwhile, the statement from Indian Home 2003 in letter and spirit forthwith and to ensure Minister Rajnath Singh added fuel to the fire, when that henceforth the ceasefire will not be violated on 17 March he warned Pakistan “we not only by both sides”.76 However, this understanding secure India within but can also cross the border to between DGMOs brought temporary relief as protect the country, if need be” 74 clearly ceasefire violations continued later. Militants’ Attack on Army Base in Jammu and Blame Game

Amidst violence on Line of Control, border” adding “Pakistan is expanding the arc of militants attacked an army base in Jammu region terror… resorting to ceasefire violations (on the on 10 February, where at least 10 people were border) to assist infiltration. Pakistan will pay for killed including five security forces personnel. this misadventure”.77 Responding to India Indian Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman put accusations, Pakistan’s Foreign Office said, “It is a the blame on Pakistan and said “Our intelligence well-established pattern that Indian officials begin inputs indicate that these terrorists were being making irresponsible statements and levelling controlled by their handlers from across the unfounded allegations, even before any proper

/jk-records-2936-cases-of-ceasefire-violations-by- 74 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1662696/9-no-power- pakistan-in-2018-highest-in-15- world-can-separate-kashmir-india-rajnath-singh/ years/article25932363.ece 75 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1665288/1-india- 72 https://www.dawn.com/news/1395417/not- advised-stop-war-mongering/ expecting-improvement-in-pak-india-ties-asif-says- 76 https://www.dawn.com/news/1410857/pakistan- after-latestceasefire-violations india-agree-to-restore-loc-ceasefire 73 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1662756/1-pakistan- 77 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1633172/1-pakistan- boycott-wto-meeting-india/ will-pay-iok-army-camp-attack-threatens-india/

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 investigation in any incident has been initiated”.78 sponsored espionage against Pakistan." He said Similarly, Pakistan’s then Defence Minister that Pakistan's armed forces were fully prepared to Khurram Dastgir Khan, warned that "Pakistan will defend the country and "any Indian aggression, pay [back] India in its own coin in case of any strategic miscalculation, or misadventure misadventure". In a statement he said, "Instead of regardless of its scale, mode, or location will not go the knee-jerk reaction of blaming Pakistan without unpunished and shall be met with an equal and substantiation, India must answer for state- proportionate response".79 Growing Voices in Kashmir to Resolve Issue Through Dialogue

Considering the agony and pain in is necessary if we are to end the bloodshed" adding Kashmir, voices in Indian administrated Kashmir "We have to talk because war was not an grew against the use of force and in favour of option".82 Despite growing desire even among pro- resolving the issue peacefully. Notably, a pro- Indian political parties to resolve the issue through Indian politician and former Chief Minister Farooq political means, India continued to follow the Abdullah, on 7 February, said that India and policy of using force. Not only Kashmiri political Pakistan were heading for war over the disputed leadership, Indian army chief felt the importance border region of Kashmir asking both sides to start of peaceful means for resolving the issue. Stressing a dialogue before war breaks out. He also slammed on talks to establish peace in India-held Kashmir, Indian officials for putting the blame on Pakistan Indian Army chief Bipin Rawat, in an interview with for escalation in violence in Indian administrated Economic Times, said the recruitment of local Kashmir.80 A week later, he stated that Kashmiris Kashmiri youth by militants cannot be controlled. were tired of the cycle of violence and the only way “Talks must happen. The issue is that a lot of locals to attain peace was through dialogue and are joining militancy. We kill them and more would suggested New Delhi to initiate dialogue with join. Infiltration can be controlled, but this cycle of Pakistan in addition to Kashmiris.81 On 12 recruitment of local youth can go on and on. February, India-held Kashmir Chief Minister So…let’s give peace a chance and see,” the Indian Mehbooba Mufti tweeted, "Dialogue with Pakistan general said.83

78 https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/280170- 81 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1634598/3-fifth-war- pakistan-warns-against-any-indian-cross-border-raid- pakistan-not-solution-peaceful-kashmir-farooq- after-kashmirattack abdullah/ 79 https://www.dawn.com/news/1389178/pakistan- 82 https://www.dawn.com/news/1388984 will-pay-back-india-in-its-own-coin-for-any- 83 https://www.dawn.com/news/1414133/indian- misadventure-warnsdefence-minister army-chief-wants-to-give-peace-a-chance-in-kashmir 80 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article- 5363313/India-Pakistan-heading-WAR-minister- warns.html

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Al-Qaeda and IS in Kashmir: Real or Concocted?

Importantly, on 5 February, President Hizbul Mujahideen commander Zakir Musa had Mamnoon Hussain said that banned militant figured last year in projecting emergence of Al- organizations operating in different parts of the Qaeda and IS in Kashmir and an attempt was then world were being mobilised in India-held Kashmir made to project Kashmir struggle as religiously (IHK) in order to sabotage the indigenous motivated instead of a political struggle, which was movement of the Kashmiris. He said permanent negated by Hurriat leadership.85 In the past, India peace could not be ensured in the South Asian has skillfully hoodwinked the international region unless the issue of Kashmir was resolved. community by linking uprising in Kashmir with “India’s treacherous scheme to use notorious cross-border terrorism and scuttle any attempt of militants will have devastating repercussions but building international pressure on her with regards this will also go in vain like those of the past” the to HR violations as well as keeping Pakistan at the president said.84 It may be noted that former arm length. Diplomatic Row and Further Tensions between Pakistan and India

The issue of harassment of Pakistani attending the annual Urs of revered Sufi saint diplomats and their families in New Delhi made the Hazrat Khawaja Moinuddin Chisti in Ajmer Sharif. headlines in the first half of March86 while Pakistan As many as 500 Pakistanis, who were supposed to also threatened to withdraw families from New travel to India on March 18, were not granted visas Delhi. Pakistan called back her high commissioner by the Indian High Commission in Islamabad in from New Delhi “for consultations” which was sheer violation of a 1974 pact on the facilitation of indicator that relations between the two countries religious tourism between the two countries.87 In were extremely tense. However, the sense the meanwhile, situation in Indian held Kashmir prevailed and Pakistan High Commissioner went also got tense after Indian troops killed three back to New Delhi on 22 March. The issue was Kashmiri youths, including at least two engineering resolved after intervention from highest levels. students, in Islamabad district on 12 March, Besides diplomatic row, Indian government also triggering widespread protests in the region.88 The hardened her stance on people to people contact killings of youth once again plunged valley in as India did not grant visas to Pakistani pilgrims for civilian unrest and anti-India protests and forces

84 https://www.dawn.com/news/1387510/india- 86 https://www.dawn.com/news/1394552/pakistan- sabotaging-kashmiris-struggle-mamnoon accuses-india-of-harassing-diplomats-families 85 https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/top- 87 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1662370/1-diplomatic- hizbul-mujahideen-leader-threatens-to-behead- standoff-envoy-wont-return-india-till-ties-improve/ separatisthurriyat-leaders-for-calling-kashmir-struggle- 88 https://www.dawn.com/news/1394799/3-kashmiri- political/story-JaQImZP05WVAUHtbk802wK.html youth-killed-in-gunbattle-by-indian-security-forces

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 clamped curfew but protests and clashes continued.89 Pakistan’s Peace Overtures in March

In an unprecedented move, Pakistan Army Pakistan, Ajay Bisaria, stressed the need to invited senior Indian military officials and improve trade ties between the two neighboring diplomats posted in Islamabad to attend 23rd nations. He stressed that the two sides will have to March Pakistan Day parade in Islamabad. work together for a peaceful future and said that Reportedly, senior Indian military officials and poverty and illiteracy are common enemies of both diplomats attended the event for the very first nations. The positive statement from Indian High time. Apparently, it was an initiative of Army Chief Commissioner raised hopes that both the Gen Bajwa aimed at sending a peace message to countries might make qualitative moves to India.90 Similarly, Pakistani Minister for Planning, normalize their relations and return to negotiation who also holds Interior ministry portfolio, opted to table. On 3 April, in a surprising development, avoid tit-for-tat response to his Indian counterpart Indian High Commissioner Ajay Bisaria called on and, instead, asked India to benefit from CPEC National Security Adviser (NSA) Lt General (retd) project rather than pursuing unnecessary Nasser Khan Janjua to discuss the “worsening criticism.91 In addition to Interior Minister, situation in Indian-held Kashmir”. Janjua expressed statements on Pakistan Day from Pakistan High concern over the "ongoing human rights violations Commissioner to India as well as from President of in India-held Kashmir", saying that the "use of Pakistan were containing messages of force alone can lead us nowhere" adding that the reconciliation. Addressing the Pakistan Day parade process of dialogue is the only way forward to in Islamabad on 23rd March, President Mamnoon resolve disputes. In response, the Indian envoy Hussain reminded India to peacefully resolve the acknowledged that Pakistan and India need to long-standing issue of Kashmir.92 While speaking improve bilateral relations, and suggested taking at Pakistan Day reception in New Delhi, Pakistan’s small steps to improve bilateral relations including High Commissioner to India Sohail Mahmood said the exchange of prisoners, visits of medical teams that both India and Pakistan must give their next and trade initiatives.94 This raised hopes that India generations a future of hope and opportunities.93 might return to negotiation table but nothing On 30 March, Indian High Commissioner to happened on bilateral front.

89 https://www.dawn.com/news/1394799/3-kashmiri- 92 https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/295912- youth-killed-in-gunbattle-by-indian-security-forces pakistans-strong-message-for-trump-on-national-day 90 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1667651/1-first- 93 https://www.dawn.com/news/1397212/next- indian-diplomats-attend-pakistan-day-parade- pakistan-india-generations-must-have-a-future-of- islamabad/ hope-saysambassador 91 https://www.dawn.com/news/1397018/india-asked- 94 to-review-short-sighted-approach-to-cpec https://epaper.dawn.com/DetailImage.php?StoryImag e=04_04_2018_001_001

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Indian Media Confirmed Kulbhushan Jadhav as RAW Agent

While there is no doubt in Pakistan that was “not a high-grade operative" and did not India was and remains engaged in anti-Pakistan possess the required skills for collecting activities through various means, voices in India intelligence. Nandy, on his Twitter page, had were also coming to fore now and then despite shared the story with the caption, "Calling a spade disliking by Indian government. A voice in India was a spade!".95 silenced that was confirming that Kulbhushan Jadhav was recruited as a spy by Indian intelligence Similarly, in his article in the Frontline, agency Research and Analysis Wing (RAW). Indian journalist Praveen Swami wrote: “Ever since Reportedly, hours after running a story confirming 2013, India has secretly built up a covert action Kulbhushan Jadhav being recruited as a spy by programme against Pakistan” that was initially led RAW, The Quint retracted the article, saying it was by National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and now by "rechecking some of the information mentioned". RAW’s Anil Dhasmana…The programme registered unprecedented success, according to him. The The article, written by journalist and article further stated that “The commander opinion editor at The Quint Chandan Nandy, said: [Jadhav] was insistent that he be allowed to "[...] it has come to light that two former chiefs of remain on the Navy’s rolls to secure his promotion RAW, who headed the organization sometime over and pay” adding “The Navy didn’t have a system the past 15 years, had put their foot down against for off-the-books operatives overseas, so this was recruiting him for operations in Pakistan". how it had to be.” The spy initially worked for According to the article, Jadhav was employed as Naval Intelligence, but later moved on to the part of "renewed efforts to use human sources as Intelligence Bureau. He came in contact with RAW deep penetration agents in Pakistan". The senior in 2010.96 RAW officials were quoted as saying that Jadhav Cycle of Violence in Kashmir and Wider Condemnation

The cycle of violence in Kashmir in April in disputes in a peaceful manner.97 Also on 2 April, which 17 Kashmiris were killed deteriorated the PM Abbasi said that India was incapable of situation in Kashmir once again. UN Secretary silencing Kashmir and expressed deep sorrow over General on 2 April called for protection of civilians the loss of life in Kashmir and condemned Indian under international humanitarian law who also tyranny.98 Similarly, Independent Permanent called on Pakistan and India to find ways to address Human Rights Commission (IPHRC) of the

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Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) strongly The incident caused widespread anti-India condemned the indiscriminate and arbitrary killing sentiments with protests in held Kashmir resulting of 17 Kashmiris by the Indian forces in southern in clashes with security forces particularly when part of Kashmir. The IPHRC called upon the forces fired shotgun pellets and tear gas at government of India to immediately bring an end hundreds of mourners during a funeral march of to the ongoing spate of killings and all human Qaiser Amin Bhat. Fierce clashes broke out in rights violations by the Indian occupation forces as several places in the city. Police later took the well as to allow international human rights custody of the body and said they would allow only organizations including the OIC-IPHRC to visit IoK a handful of relatives to take the body for burial. for an independent review of the human rights When hundreds of residents showed up, police situation on ground.99 Iran’s Foreign Ministry again fired tear gas into the mourners. That set off spokesman Bahram Ghasemi also expressed regret pitched battles between residents and at the loss of life in recent tensions in Kashmir, government forces.104 On 13 September, Indian urging both sides of the conflict to show security forces killed eight youth in Sopore, restraint.100 Pakistani political and military Kupwara and Riasi areas of the valley. All of them leadership strongly condemned the killing of were shot dead during cordon and search Kashmiris.101 Also on 4 April, PM Abbasi addressed operations by Indian troops. On 11 September, special joint sitting of AJK Legislative Assembly and two youths were killed that triggered protests in the AJK Council, held in the wake of massacre of northern part of Kashmir particularly in Langate, Kashmiris in Shopian and Anantnag districts of Handwara and Zaengeer areas of North Kashmir.105 India-held Kashmir and strongly condemned HR Later, on 15 September, Indian security killed five violations in Kashmir.102 suspects during a gun-battle in held Kashmir, triggering violent anti-India protests in Kashmir. On 1 June, Indian security personnel drove The fighting sparked anti-India protests and an armored vehicle wildly into a crowd of clashes as hundreds of residents tried to march to protesters in Srinagar slamming into a half-dozen the site of the battle in solidarity with the militants. people and crushing one man, identified as Qaiser Forces fired warning shots, shotgun pellets and Amin Bhat, beneath its wheels, injuring him tear gas at the stone-throwing protesters, injuring critically who later succumbed to his injuries.103 at least six people.106 On 11 October, a Kashmiri

99 103 https://www.dawn.com/news/1411362/indian- http://saudigazette.com.sa/article/531886/World/Asia security-personnel-crush-kashmiri-man-under-armour- /Civilian-killings-in-Kashmir-condemned vehicle-insrinagar 100 https://en.mehrnews.com/news/133086/Iran-calls- 104 https://www.dawn.com/news/1411576/indian- for-easing-tensions-in-Kashmir forces-fire-at-funeral-procession-of-man-crushed-by- 101 https://www.dawn.com/news/1399538/pakistan- armouredvehicle-in-held-kashmir condemns-indian-brutalities-against-innocent- 105 https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/368082- kashmiris indian-troops-martyr-eight-kashmiri-youth-in-iok 102 https://www.dawn.com/news/1399686/india-will- 106 https://www.dawn.com/news/1433086/5-suspects- have-to-accept-world-laws-on-kashmir-abbasi killed-in-fighting-with-indian-troops-in-held-kashmir

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 scholar-turned rebel leader Manan Wani and his Kulgam town where Indian forces were battling colleague were killed in a gun-battle with Indian with armed Kashmiris. Three Kashmiri fighters troops. Tens of thousands of people took part in were shot dead in the exchange but a subsequent Wani’s funeral while chanting anti-India and pro- explosion killed five demonstrators. Residents militant slogans. Wani was pursuing a doctorate in blamed Indian soldiers of blasting the home with geology at an Indian university but abandoned his explosives while fighting armed Kashmiri.108 On 20 research in January to join the Hizbul Mujahedeen, November, Kashmiri leaders blamed the Indian Kashmir’s largest rebel group.107 Joining of authorities for killing a prominent leader Hafizullah militancy by an intellectual Manan Wani who was Mir, a top political leader of Tehreek-i-Hurriyat, as pursuing a Ph. D. degree in Aligarh Muslim anti-India protests and clashes followed a gun University indicate that militancy has gained battle that killed four armed fighters and an army ground in Kashmir as an indication of how the commando.109 Continuing with the trend, Indian absence of dispute resolution mechanism can forces killed six Kashmiri youth on 23 November affect the choices made by the people. Indian Islamabad district.110 Reportedly, six more youths government failed to recognize the enormity of were killed by security forces in Shopian district on the situation and continues to deal Kashmir 25 November.111 Lately, a trend has been observed through counter-insurgency and even pursuing a wherein security forces destroy the houses and rightest and nationalist approach to an extent of building with explosive material on the suspicions scrapping special status of Kashmir that resulted in that residents were sheltering militants. boycott of municipality elections even by pro- Indian political parties in Kashmir. Srinagar based Jammu Kashmir Coalition of Civil Society in its annual report stated that year Cycles after cycles of violence in Kashmir 2018 was the deadliest year of the last decade in were reported in Kashmir throughout the year with Indian administered Kashmir as violence peaked resultant civilian unrest. On 21 October, further during the year resulting in the killing of at least violence across Kashmir left at least 14 people 586 people in different incidents of violence dead. The victims included six who were killed including 160 civilians, 267 militants and 159 when an explosion occurred among a crowd Indian security forces. 112 protesting against Indian occupation. Thousands of demonstrators marched on a village in southern

107 109 https://www.dawn.com/news/1446789/prominent- https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/i kashmiri-leader-killed-in-occupied-territory ndian-troops-kill-2-rebels-in-kashmir- 110 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1852815/1/ fighting/2018/10/11/1c89da7c-cd32-11e8-ad0a- 111 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1854014/1-indian- 0e01efba3cc1_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=. troops-martyr-six-kashmiris-fresh-assault/ 0a3a52f1c348 112 http://jkccs.net/wp- 108 https://www.dawn.com/news/1440556/indian- content/uploads/2018/12/Annual-Report-2018.pdf firing-explosion-kill-14-in-held-kashmir

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UNHCR Chief’s Call for Investigation into HR Violations in Kashmir; UK Report on HR violations

On 14 June, United Nations (UN) human difficult to obtain information about conditions in rights chief called for a major investigation into AJK.113 Reacting to the report., Pakistan welcomed abuses in Kashmir, as his office released its first- the report and the call for establishing commission ever report on alleged rights violations committed of inquiry for international investigation into by both India and Pakistan in the disputed human rights violations" in IHK.114 On the other territory. Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein urged the Human hand, India rejected the report calling it fallacious, Rights Council "to consider establishing a tendentious and motivated.115 Despite a call from Commission of Inquiry (COI) to conduct a UN rights chief for Commission of Inquiry, comprehensive independent international international community preferred silence on investigation into allegations of human rights continued HR violations mostly due to Indian violations in Kashmir." The report highlighted diplomatic clout and economic advantages that "chronic impunity for violations committed by western world attaches to their relations with security forces". India.

The report said that Zeid met with In September, new UN High Commissioner representatives of both governments following an for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet called on India upsurge of violence in July 2016 after killing of to take meaningful action on addressing issues Burhan Wani but access to Kashmir was not highlighted in the UN report on human rights granted by both the sides prompting rights chief to violations in Kashmir. In a written statement, start remote monitoring of the region, ultimately Bachelet said “In Kashmir, our recent report on the producing a report covering alleged abuses. The human rights situation has not been followed up report accused Indian troops of being responsible with meaningful improvements, or even open and for an estimated 145 unlawful killings, far serious discussions on how the grave issues raised surpassing the 20 people estimated to have been could be addressed”. “The people of Kashmir have killed by militant groups during that period. About exactly the same rights to justice and dignity as Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), the report people all over the world, and we urge the identifies "a range of human rights abuses", but authorities to respect them. The Office continues notes they "are of a different caliber or magnitude to request permission to visit both sides of the Line and of a more structural nature". of Control, and in the meantime, will continue its

The rights office also said that restrictions on freedom of expression and assembly made it

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Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 monitoring and reporting,” the rights prepared by the UK Parliament's All-Party commissioner added.116 Parliamentary Kashmir Group (APPKG), has highlighted "the draconian laws", including the Notably, a report compiled by a UK Armed Forces Special Powers Act and Public Safety parliamentary body, released on 31 October, Act, "under the garb of which Indian occupation recognised "the massive human rights violations forces are committing human rights abuses in IoK and atrocities" committed by Indian forces in with impunity".117 occupied Kashmir". The comprehensive report,

PM Imran Khan’s Outreach to India; Indian Intransigence Continued

In his victory speech, PTI Chairman Imran dialogue and pursue peace, terming it the "best Khan, inter alia, called for improving relations with way to alleviate poverty and uplift the people of India for resolving Kashmir issue as well as pulling the subcontinent". 121 both the nations out of abject poverty. Subsequently, Indian PM Modi called Imran Khan Major political parties and the Hurriyat to congratulate him on his election victory. "We are Conference in India-held Kashmir expressed ready to enter a new era of relations with support for a Kashmir-centric dialogue between Pakistan," Modi said. 118 Reacting to development, India and Pakistan, welcoming the intent for Pakistan’s Foreign Office hoped that telephonic “constructive engagement” expressed by the conversation between PM-in-waiting Imran Khan former and “uninterrupted dialogue” by the latter. and Prime Minister Narendra Modi could lead to APHC chairman Mirwaiz Umar described Indian the resumption of comprehensive bilateral Prime Minister Modi’s letter to Prime Minister dialogue between the two countries.119 Imran Khan and Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Immediately after oath taking ceremony, Foreign Qureshi’s remarks of “uninterrupted dialogue on Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi on 20 August Kashmir” as “a positive development”. Peoples vowed to review Pakistan's foreign policy and said Democratic Party leader Naeem Akhtar said the that he would send a message of peace towards two countries had made an encouraging beginning India and Afghanistan.120 Similarly, PM Imran by speaking of talks. “We hope the new Khan's official Twitter account tweeted twice on 21 government in Pakistan walks the talk and gets August afternoon to once again invite India to adequate response from this side too. The National

116 https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/366606-new- 119 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1772040/1-fo- un-rights-chief-urges-india-to-respect-kashmirs-right- welcomes-modis-phone-call-imran-hopes-can-lead- to-justice-dignity revival-talks/ 117 https://www.dawn.com/news/1443738 120 https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/357749- 118 https://www.dawn.com/news/1423857/modi- pakistan-extends-olive-branch-to-afghanistan-india phones-imran-khan-says-ready-to-enter-new-era-of- 121 https://www.dawn.com/news/1428400/pm-khan- ties-with-pakistan-pti says-india-pakistan-must-dialogue-resolve-differences

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Conference termed the statements of India and development was an emblem of how India had Pakistan “a crucial development”. “Dialogue needs once again squandered an opportunity for peace. to be taken forward. All groups will appreciate it,” FO spokesperson said the reasons cited for the party’s general secretary Ali Muhammad Sagar cancellation were “entirely unconvincing”. said.122 Regarding Indian allegations of killing of security personnel, the FO said a joint investigation team Subsequently, in September, Prime could probe Indian claims. He said the killing of a Ministers of India and Pakistan wrote letters to Border Security Force (BSF) soldier took place two each showing intention for opening of talks123 that days prior to India’s assent to the then-proposed led to an understanding that foreign ministers of ministerial meeting. The stamps were released the two countries will meet in New York on the before the 2018 general elections in July. He said side-lines of UNGA session.124 However, in a statements made by the Indian ministry surprise move, India called off the said meeting. against Pakistan Prime Minister Imran MEA Spokesperson Raveesh Kumar cited "unclean Khan violated all norms of civilised discourse and intentions" on Pakistan's side. "It is obvious that diplomatic communication.126 behind Pakistan's proposal for talks to make a fresh beginning, the evil agenda of Pakistan stands The buck did not stop there. Indian Army Chief exposed and the true face of the new Prime Bipin Rawat on 21 September threatened Pakistan Minister Imran Khan has been revealed to the of retaliation over its alleged involvement in the world in his first few months in office," he said. killing of a BSF soldier and policemen in occupied "Any conversation with Pakistan in such an Kashmir. He said, “We need to take stern action to environment would be meaningless." The MEA avenge the barbarism that terrorists and the spokesperson referred to the "killing of Indian Pakistan Army have been carrying out” security forces" allegedly by "Pakistani entities" adding “Yes, it’s time to give it back to them in the and Islamabad's decision to release stamps same coin, not resorting to similar kind of allegedly "glorifying terrorists" as the reasons barbarism. But I think the other side must also feel behind the cancellation of talks.125 the same pain.”127 In response, DG ISPR, said that the country should stop ‘war mongering’ and ‘not Pakistan’s Foreign Office on 22 September take the nuclear armed state’s overtures for peace expressed ‘deep disappointment’ over New Delhi as its weakness’. He advised India to act sensibly calling off a planned meeting stating that the and should not try to disturb regional peace. “We

122 https://www.dawn.com/news/1428564/kashmir- 125 https://www.dawn.com/news/1434285/india- parties-support-india-pakistan-talks cancels-new-york-meeting-with-pakistan-says-pm- 123 https://www.dawn.com/news/1434062/pm-khan- khans-true-face-revealed responds-to-modi-in-positive-spirit-to-resume-talks- 126 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1808847/1-new- resolve-all-issues delhi-squandered-opportunity-peace-fo/ 124 https://www.hindustantimes.com/india- 127 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1809159/1-indian- news/sushma-swaraj-to-meet-pakistan-foreign- army-chief-threatens-pakistan-painful-retaliation/ minister-in-new-york-later-this-month/story- FE1Gk4lKX7uWt8UIaUFRvJ.html

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 are always prepared for war,” he added.128 Prime improve.129 Similarly, Pakistan’s foreign minister Minister Imran Khan has said that Pakistan will not Qureshi on 23 September said that despite India’s accept any act of hostility, saying no one should reluctance, Pakistan would not close doors on its mistake the country’s wish for peace as a sign of efforts to promote peace in the region. The foreign weakness. The premier, however, maintained that minister reiterated Pakistan’s offer to open the Pakistan wants better relations with India so that Kartarpur corridor for allowing Sikh pilgrims to the economic conditions of the two countries attend Baba Guru Nanak’s anniversary this year.130 Pakistan’s Foreign Minister’s Catharsis at the UNGA

During his address at annual session of UN Kashmir. He also raised the issue of Indian spy General Assembly, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister said Kalboshan Yadav and informed the audience that that Pakistan wanted to resolve all its disputes with India has been behind the acts of terrorism within India through dialogue but India wasted the Pakistan including the APS attack in Peshawar. FM opportunity for third time. He said that Pakistan Qureshi highlighted that Pakistan’s new acts with restraint despite Indian aggression across government intends to pursue the policy of peace, the line of control and mentioned that If India regional security and prosperity. Pakistan had to pursued its agenda of limited war, Pakistan will maintain the posture of minimum credible respond back quite aggressively. FM highlighted deterrence due to offensive force postures and that it is a matter of concern for the international doctrines by some states within the region that community that India has been sponsoring undermine strategic stability in South Asian region, terrorism and aggression against all its neighbours. though Pakistan is ready to engage with India for The FM called for early institution of a Commission Confidence building, risk reduction and avoidance of Inquiry under UN to investigate HR violations in of arms race. Engagement through Religious Diplomacy/ Opening of Kartarpur Corridor

With the view to bring two nations closer without visa. In November, Indian cabinet and reduce hostilities, Pakistan in September approved the construction of the Kartarpur proposed India for opening of Kartarpur Corridor corridor.131 The ceremony for opening Kartarpur for Sikh pilgrimages to visit historic gurdwara corridor in India was held on 26 November

128 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1809193/1-india-not- 130 https://www.dawn.com/news/1434644/pakistan- try-provoke-nuclear-armed-state-dg-ispr/ wont-abandon-peace-efforts-says-qureshi 129 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1809755/1-pakistan- 131 https://www.dawn.com/news/1447016/indian- will-not-tolerate-act-hostility-pm-imran/ govts-decision-to-open-kartarpur-crossing-is-victory- of-peace-information-minister

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 followed by the same ceremony in Pakistan on 28 improvement in relations between India and November. However, Indian side took the initiative Pakistan, despite the opening of the Kartarpur negatively and perceived it a Pakistani effort to crossing. "Until and unless Pakistan stops terrorist woo Sikh community. On other hand, Pakistan activities in India, there will be no dialogue and we contemplated opening of corridor as good will will not participate in Saarc [conference]," asserted gesture to create positive vibes in India through Swaraj.135 Noticeably, a negative propaganda religious diplomacy that might lead the two against Pakistan was continuing on Indian media countries closer to each other. Pakistan on 27 on the day of the ceremony and there was a feeling November stated that Indian PM Narendra Modi that India wanted to keep the development low will be invited to Pakistan for the South Asian profile and not to take the limelight as it does not Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) favour BJP government who is apparently going summit, Foreign Office Spokesman said.132 into upcoming general elections harping on Similarly, Pakistani prime minister during ground nationalists agenda with strong anti-Pakistan breaking ceremony of the corridor on 28 sentiments. While anti-India political rhetoric has November, said that Pakistan wants civilized ties vanished from Pakistani politics for quite some with India. He said, "I am saying today, that our time, anti-Pakistan slogans continued to remain political leaders, our army, and all other relevant in Indian politics and the sitting institutions are all on one page. We wish to move government is quite interested to keep them as forward, we want a civilized relationship. We have one of the electioneering agenda. Indian media just one problem, Kashmir. If a man can walk on repeated flashed handshake during the ceremony the moon, what problems are there that we between army chief and Gobal Chawla, General cannot resolve?" he asked. He asked for improving Secretary of the Pakistan Sikh Gurdwara relations for mutual economic benefits. He said, Parbandhak Committee as Pakistan Army’s alleged "The citizens of both countries want peace. It is just support for the Sikh secessionist movement the leadership which needs to be on one page".133 because they accuse Chawla of being a supporter Pakistan’s Army Chief General Bajwa said “It’s a of the Khalistan movement. Resultantly, ISPR step towards peace which our region needs. spokesperson took to twitter to lament the Barbed wire at borders is measure by a sovereign narrow-mindedness of the Indian media. “Indian state to check/deny illegal crossings." "Corridors media taking a myopic view is selectively showing and Gates are for legal peaceful visitors. So is the Mr Gopal Chawla meeting COAS…army chief met case for all our neighbors”.134 all guests at the venue irrespective of identity. A peace initiative should not be subjected to The same day when ground breaking ceremony was held in Pakistan, Indian Minister for External Affairs Sushma Swaraj announced that India will not attend the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) conference if it is held in Pakistan. She brushed off any possibility of

132 https://www.dawn.com/news/1447981/indian-pm- 134 https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/399419-coas- modi-to-be-invited-to-attend-saarc-summit-foreign- gen-bajwa-terms-kartarpur-corridor-a-step-towards- office peace 133 https://www.dawn.com/news/1448172/we-want- 135 https://www.dawn.com/news/1448182/bilateral- civilised-ties-with-india-pm-khan-lays-foundation- dialogue-will-not-start-because-of-kartarpur-opening- stone-for-long-awaited-kartarpur-corridor sushma-swaraj

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 propaganda”.136 Continued Indian Involvement in Anti- Pakistan Activities

There are strong feelings in Pakistan that through the banned Balochistan Liberation Army India is involved in anti-Pakistan activities and (BLA) and covert operations. The resolution stated, actively supporting local groups that are active “The Senate Standing Committee on Interior against the state including Baloch insurgents. On unanimously condemns the Indian continuous 26 November, Pakistan in a veiled reference interference in Balochistan. Indian Prime Minister blamed India for attack on Chinese consulate in Narendra Modi and his minister for interior had Karachi as Federal Minister for Information Fawad threatened Pakistan earlier that they would sort Chaudhry stated that “external forces” are involved out Pakistan through Balochistan. Attack on in the botched terrorist attack on the Chinese Chinese consulate in Karachi was claimed by the consulate in Karachi and the government knows BLA, whereas it is being openly supported by India. “very well” about the perpetrators.137 However, PM Modi and his government owe an explanation Senate Standing Committee on Interior on 26 to Pakistan and the international community for November directly named India for terrorism in their continued support to BLA and other Pakistan. Former interior minister Senator Rehman separatists in Balochistan. The Indian government Malik, who was chairing the meeting, moved a must stop its covert anti-Pakistan operations in resolution strongly condemning India for being Balochistan / Pakistan.”138 behind terrorism in Pakistan and Balochistan Conclusion

So far, all Pakistani efforts failed to engage through use of oppressive measures at the cost of India with the view to reduce tension and resolve human rights created further alienation among issue through peaceful means while India Kashmiris. While India might consider returning to continued to shy away from opening talks with negotiation table once general elections in India Pakistan harping on the issue of terrorism but are held but in run up to elections any continued her anti-Pakistan activities through misadventure by Indian central government across various means. Nationalist BJP government’s the line of control/ working boundary for political efforts to supress freedom struggle in Kashmir objectives cannot be ruled out.

About the Author: Mr. Gul Dad is a counter-terrorism, security and foreign policy expert and currently serves as Director Research & HR of Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies

136 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1856105/1-army- 137 https://www.dawn.com/news/1447878/govt- laments-india-medias-propaganda-coas-chawla- knows-very-well-about-consulate-attack-perpetrators handshake/ 138 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1854920/1-senate- panel-demands-enhanced-security-chinese-citizens/

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN RELATIONS AND POLITICAL RECONCILIATION IN AFGHANISTAN

Gul Dad

Unlike 2017, relations between war-torn country deteriorated though fresh efforts Afghanistan and Pakistan slightly improved and were seen with varying degree of success to kick- both the countries held structural dialogue on start Afghan reconciliation process but could not various related issues but the engagement could go beyond direct engagement between Afghan not bridge the trust deficit between Islamabad and Taliban and the US while an intra-Afghan dialogue Kabul as accusations between the two countries remained a pipe dream. continued. In the meanwhile, security situation in Afghan Blame Game After Deadly Attacks in Kabul and Efforts towards Structural Engagement

Security situation in Afghanistan visited Islamabad and held meetings with relevant deteriorated in January and militants carried out authorities and shared “evidence” that Pakistan high profile attacks including attacks in Kabul, said was looking into authenticity of it.141 On 2 which were either claimed by Afghan Taliban or February, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani alleged Daesh. After deadly attack near old Interior that Taliban insurgents are using Pakistan as a Ministry building in Kabul in which 103 people center and demanded Pakistan take immediate were killed and 235 more were wounded, Afghan action against them. Pakistan’s Foreign Office intelligence chief Masoom Stanikzai blamed spokesman rejected allegations that Taliban and Pakistan for the violence stating that attacks in their allies, the Haqqani network, have bases in Afghanistan were planned in Pakistan.139. Despite Pakistan and called on the Afghan government to directly blaming Pakistan,140 head of Afghan focus on security lapses that led to recent intelligence agency NDS Masoom Stanekzai along with country’s interior Minister Wais Barmak

139 pakistan-taking-revenge-in-afghanistan-for- http://www.1tvnews.af/en/news/afghanistan/33221- international-pressure-nds-chief pakistan-taking-revenge-in-afghanistan-for- 141 international-pressure-nds-chief https://www.dawn.com/news/1386639/afghanistan- 140 says-it-has-undeniable-proof-kabul-attacks-were- http://www.1tvnews.af/en/news/afghanistan/33221- planned-in-pakistan

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 bombings in Afghanistan142. Due to increasing Pakistan-Afghanistan talks on an engagement plan pressure and deadly attacks, Afghan government on peace and security issues ended on 10 February was under severe pressure while some reports in Islamabad without making any headway on its (including that of US government143 and BBC144) key elements because the Afghan delegation felt suggested that militants in Afghanistan were that their priorities were not being addressed.147 increasing their influence and Afghan government As a sign of further bilateral and multilateral was increasingly losing control. engagement, Pakistan’s Army chief visited Kabul on 13 February where he attended the Chiefs of At the start of February, Pakistan and Defence Conference, which was attended by the Afghanistan during a meeting in Kabul made top US commander in Afghanistan Gen John agreement in Kabul on some points of the Nicholson, Commander US Central Command Gen Afghanistan-Pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Joseph Votel and the army chiefs of Afghanistan Solidarity (APAPPS) and decided to continue and central Asian republics Kazakhstan, discussions to reach an agreement on the entire Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and blueprint for bilateral engagement. The APAPPS Uzbekistan. The COAS assured the defence officials was a joint action plan for cooperation in the areas that Pakistan does not allow its territory to be used of counter-terrorism and reduction of violence, against any other country and "expects the same peace and reconciliation, refugees repatriation in reciprocity". The conference concluded with the and joint economic development. During the agreement to continue cooperation for regional meeting, Pakistan reportedly offered a joint peace and stability148. investigation into the terrorist attacks in Kabul and urged the Afghan government to take action As a further sign of increased economic against anti-Pakistan terrorists stationed in cooperation and improvement of relations, Afghanistan. Pakistan also emphasized the need Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India for strengthening border management on the (TAPI) project was inaugurated on 23 February Afghan side.145 Notably, on 30 January, Pakistan with leaders of four countries attending its ground- revealed that it handed over 27 individuals breaking ceremony in Serhetabat followed by suspected of having ties to the Afghan Taliban and another in Herat. PM Shahid Khaqan Abbasi along Haqqani Network to Afghanistan,146 which was a with President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly sign of cooperation between Pakistan and Berdimuhamedov, his Afghan counterpart Ashraf Afghanistan. Subsequently, the second round of Ghani and Minister of State for External Affairs of

142 https://www.voanews.com/a/afghan-president- 146 https://www.dawn.com/news/1386289/27-taliban- pakistan-taliban/4236002.html haqqani-network-suspects-handed-over-to- 143 https://www.dawn.com/news/1386347/afghan- afghanistan-lastyear-fo govt-losing-control-over-its-territory-us-report 147 https://www.dawn.com/news/1388728/success- 144 https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/275361- eludes-second-round-of-pak-afghan-security-talks taliban-openly-active-in-70-percent-of-afghanistan- 148 https://www.dawn.com/news/1389166/pakistan- bbc-study-finds doesnt-allow-its-soil-to-be-used-against-any-country- 145 https://www.dawn.com/news/1387075/pakistan- says-coasat-kabul-conference afghanistan-agree-to-continue-talks-on-joint-action- plan

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

India M.J. Akbar attended the ground-breaking effective actions against fugitives ceremony at the Turkmenistan border with and the Afghanistan. Importantly, Afghan Taliban irreconcilable elements posing spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told AP that they security threats to either of the were ready to guarantee the pipeline’s security.149 two countries; In mid of March, Pakistan’s National Security c. Both countries to commit to deny Adviser Lt Gen (R) Nasser Khan Janjua visited Kabul use of their respective territory by and held talks with key Afghan officials including any country, his Afghan counterpart, Chief Executive and the network, group or individuals for President. The overall sense of the visit was quite anti-state activities against either positive. President Ashraf Ghani reportedly said country; “Let’s not remain prisoners of the past and let’s d. To put in place a joint supervision, secure our future with the aim not to win the war, coordination and confirmation but to end it, for which Pakistan should help mechanism [Afghanistan]”. According to the statement, he through Liaison Officers (LOs) for also expressed strong support for connectivity realization of the agreed actions; with the Central Asian Republics to reap the e. The two countries commit to benefits of ideal geostrategic location of avoid territorial and aerial Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Afghan president violations of each other's territory; called for a roadmap to be prepared for a f. The two countries to avoid public comprehensive engagement with Pakistan in order blame game and instead use to carry the relationship forward.150 APAPPS cooperation mechanisms to respond to mutual issues of Subsequently, PM Shahid Khaqan Abbasi contention and concerns; and visited Kabul on 6 April where held talks with g. Establish Working Groups and President Ashraf Ghani and met other Afghan necessary cooperation leaders including Chief Executive Abdullah mechanism as per APAPPS for full Abdullah and High Peace Council chief Karim implementation of the APAPPS Khalili.151 During the visit, Pakistan and Afghanistan and the above mutually agreed on following key principles to reinforcing principles. operationalize the working groups under Afghanistan - Pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Afghanistan National Security Adviser Solidarity (APAPPS): 152 Hanif Atmar met with his Pakistani counterpart in Moscow on the sidelines of the 9th Russia Security a. Pakistan to support the Afghan- Conference, emphasizing that recent agreements led and Afghan-owned peace and between the two countries should become reconciliation; practical. During the meeting, both sides discussed b. The two countries to undertake the seven principles agreed upon by PM Abbasi

149 https://www.dawn.com/news/1391340/bonhomie- 152 http://mfa.gov.af/en/news/press-release---key- marks-opening-of-tapi-gas-pipeline principles-to-finalize-afghanistan-pakistan-action-plan- 150 https://www.dawn.com/news/1396193/lets-think- for-peaceand-solidarity-apapps-agreed-upon-during- of-ending-afghan-war-not-winning-it-ghani the-meeting-of-the-pres 151 https://www.dawn.com/news/1400479/accord- with-kabul-on-action-against-irreconcilable-elements

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 and President Ghani in Kabul. Pakistani National framework for addressing bilateral concerns and Security Advisor Nasser Janjua also pledged that avoiding blame game as well as finger pointing his country will take practical steps towards the through media, Afghanistan blamed Pakistan for implementation of recent agreements between Ghazni attack claiming that Pakistani citizens Kabul and Islamabad.153 Pakistan and Afghanistan supported the Taliban. On 16 August, Pakistan’s continued their structural engagement and fourth Foreign Office rejected allegations that Pakistani meeting of APAPPS was held in Islamabad in May citizens had supported the Taliban attack on where both the countries agreed that effective and Afghanistan’s city of Ghazni. Moreover, The New full implementation of a bilateral peace initiative York Times had reported that Afghan officials had would help eliminate terrorism and achieve peace, claimed the Taliban were aided by foreign fighters, stability, prosperity and development of the including Pakistanis and Chechens, and even some people of the two countries.154At the end of May, a high level Afghan delegation comprising Afghan national security adviser, interior minister, intelligence chief and the military chief155 visited Pakistan suggesting that background efforts are afoot to improve bilateral relations in addition to making efforts for bringing Afghan Taliban to negotiation table.

Pakistan and Afghanistan held inaugural session of first meeting of APAPPS on 22 July when a 28-member delegation led by Foreign Secretary Tehmina Janjua visited Kabul.156 According to Afghan MOFA statement, Afghan and Pakistani Delegates, headed by the two countries’ Deputy Foreign Ministers, met to inaugurate and functionalize the working groups of APAPPS. The opening sessions were followed by the sessions of five working groups, namely: Politico Diplomatic Working Group; Military-Military Working Group; Intelligence Working Group; Economic Working Group; and Refugees Working Group. During the working groups meetings, the discussions were reportedly held on ToRs for future course of action and items for discussions for next meeting. Later, a concluding session was also held.

Despite putting in place the institutional

153 https://didpress.com/en/?p=6816 156 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1764079/1-pakistani- 154 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1710009/1-pakistan- delegation-kabul-attend-bilateral-action-plan-peace- afghanistan-agree-implement-peace-initiative/ session/ 155 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1720350/1-high- powered-afghan-delegation-pakistan-crucial-talks/

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

Al Qaeda affiliates.157 On 17 August, Pakistan’s Pakistani hospitals.158 Similarly, spokesperson of Army Chief rejected these allegations and asked Afghan ministry of interior on 29 August blamed Afghanistan to inward for the causes. On 18 Pakistan’s military establishment for planning and August, FO said that Pakistan “strongly rejects” providing necessary aid to Taliban to carry out the reports alleging that Taliban fighters involved in the coordinated attack on Ghazni city on 10 August.159 Ghazni attack were offered medical treatment in Daesh Increasing Foothold in Afghanistan; Regional Concerns

While Afghan Taliban stepped up their Muslim population exists. By targeting civilian attacks, Daesh was also making inroads in various population across the country and a gathering of parts of the country and according to some reports Afghan Ulema Council in Kabul on 4 June, Daesh the ultra-violent group is gaining foothold ranged alarm bells across the region164. Daesh also particularly in areas adjacent to Pakistan- carried out attacks on security forces, Taliban and Afghanistan border and this has been civilian even when Taliban and security forces communicated not only by Iran160 but also there were enjoying a temporary truce. was realization within Pakistan (at provincial and federal level)161 as Daesh was being treated as one Reportedly, on 11 July, Pakistan hosted an of the most potent threat to the security of unprecedented meeting of heads of intelligence Pakistan in days ahead as was stated in Pakistan’s agencies from Russia, China and Iran to discuss National Internal Security Policy.162 When counter terrorism cooperation, with particular Pakistan’s foreign minister visited Russia in focus on the build-up of Islamic State in February, Russia and Pakistan shared a joint Afghanistan. Official sources in Islamabad concern of rising threat of Daesh in Afghanistan.163 confirmed that the participants held detailed discussions on joint measures to stop Afghan- Since Daesh had a pan-Islamic and global based loyalists of the Middle Eastern terrorist agenda in addition to being ultra-conservative in group from threatening the territorial boundaries its approach, it was perceived to be bigger threat of the four nations. A spokesperson for Moscow’s for entire region particularly in areas where Foreign Intelligence Service also confirmed that

157 https://www.dawn.com/news/1427500/fo-rejects- 161 https://www.dawn.com/news/1411219/kp- charges-pakistanis-aided-taliban-in-ghazni concerned-over-presence-of-terror-group-on-afghan- 158 https://www.dawn.com/news/1427783/fo-rejects- border accusation-pakistan-provided-medical-support-to- 162 https://nation.com.pk/01-Jun-2018/govt-unveils- militants-involved-in-ghazni-attack national-internal-security-policy-2018-23 159 163 https://www.dawn.com/news/1390621/russia- https://www.tolonews.com/afghanistan/pakistan%E2 very-preoccupied-by-is-presence-in-afghanistan-says- %80%99s-military-plotted-ghazni-attack-moi lavrov 160 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1719998/1-iran- 164 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1727358/3-eight- warns-pakistan-islamic-state-presence-border/ killed-suicide-bomber-targets-afghan-clerics/

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 the emergence of IS in Afghanistan prompted the Iranian counterparts. They “stressed the need for deliberations in Islamabad. “The conference a more active inclusion of regional powers in the reached understanding of the importance of efforts” to end the war in Afghanistan.165 This coordinated steps to prevent the trickling of IS quadrilateral meeting of the heads of intelligence terrorists from Syria and Iraq to Afghanistan, agencies of four countries clearly indicate the where from they would pose risks for level of threat these four countries are neighbouring countries,” Sergei Ivanov told state- contemplating from Daesh. While the US/ NATO run TASS media outlet. He said the director of the forces are mostly concerned with violence coming Russian spy agency, Sergei Naryshkin, attended from Afghan Taliban, regional players were rating the Islamabad meeting along with Chinese and Daesh threat even bigger. Efforts at Starting Peace Talks

Even when the security situation in group as part of a proposed political process that Afghanistan was getting complicated, efforts for could lead to talks. Ghani proposed a ceasefire and initiating peace talks were being made. Afghan a release of prisoners as part of a range of options Taliban on 14 February said that they want to end including new elections, involving the militants, Afghanistan’s war through dialogue. “Our and a constitutional review as part of a pact with preference is to solve the Afghan issue through the Taliban. In addition, Taliban prisoners could be peaceful dialogue,” the Taliban said. The Taliban released and their names removed from said the United States must end its “occupation” international blacklists, while security and accept the Taliban right to form a government arrangements could be made for Taliban agreeing “consistent with the beliefs of our people”. They to join a process of reconciliation. Former fighters said they had no intention to damage any other and refugees could be reintegrated and provided country or let anyone use Afghan territory against with jobs. He said that Taliban would have to anyone else.166 Ahead of a peace conference in recognize the Afghan government. Afghan Kabul, Afghan Taliban on 26 February, reiterated President Ashraf Ghani also showed readiness to their demand for direct talks with the US for begin dialogue with Pakistan while forgetting the peaceful resolution of Afghan issue.167 However, past and starting a new chapter.168 Conference was the US asked for Afghan Taliban to open talks with attended by officials from around 25 countries Afghan government instead. involved in the so-called Kabul Process. However, Taliban did not respond positively to President Later during Kabul Conference on 28 Ghani’s offer of talks.169 In the meanwhile, Pakistan February, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani offered continued to impress on Afghan government of recognition of the Taliban as a legitimate political

165 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1756610/1-pakistan-hosts- 168 https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/286950-kabul- spy-chiefs-russia-china-iran/ peace-conference-ashraf-offers-perks-package-to- 166 https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/281061- taliban-fornational-peace taliban-offer-dialogue-to-end-afghanistans-war 169 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1648229/3-taliban- 167 https://www.dawn.com/news/1392067/afghan- pour-cold-water-invitation-afghan-peace-talks/ taliban-call-on-us-to-hold-direct-talks-for-peaceful- solution

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 making efforts for bringing Afghan Taliban to the Terrorism & Counter-Narcotics; and Regional negotiation table.170 Economic Cooperation. The conference and its joint declaration gave a very clear message of An important conference (26-27 March) political reconciliation with Afghan Taliban. The on Afghanistan was held in Tashkent, Republic of conference called for economic development and Uzbekistan, which was attended by Afghanistan, regional connectivity. The conference could bring China, France, Germany, India, Iran, Italy, Japan, qualitative change in peace efforts and the Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Qatar, Russia, situation got worst when an airstrike by Afghan Air Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Force in Kunduz killed more than 100 people United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United mostly madrassa students which was possibly States, Uzbekistan, EU and UN. After the effort of anti-peace lobby to sabotage peace conference a joint declaration was issued which efforts. Even a UN investigation into the incident171 dilated on Peace & Reconciliation; Counter- could not salvage peace process. Taliban’s Spring Offensive Al- Khandaq and Ceasefire on Eid

Towards the end of the April, Afghan Taliban was a major blow to the efforts for Taliban announced the start of their annual spring resuming dialogue process in Afghanistan. offensive, saying it will focus on US forces in Afghanistan while their internal supporters will be On the other hand, background efforts for secondary targets. The announcement of the Al bringing Afghan Taliban and Afghanistan Khandaq campaign marked the symbolic start of government closer to each other continued and the fighting season. A Taliban statement on 25 eventually proved successful when after hectic April dismissed the peace overtures as a efforts of Pakistan, US, China and Afghan “conspiracy”. “Their main effort is to deviate public government, Afghan Taliban announced a three- opinion from the illegitimate foreign occupation of day ceasefire on Eid following an announcement of the country, as the Americans have no serious or ceasefire by President Ashraf Ghani.173 174 Effort sincere intentions of bringing the war to an end,” was made to extend the ceasefire and start the Taliban said. On 26 April, Pakistan urged all moribund peace process as a Pakistani delegation warring factions of Afghanistan to seek a peaceful comprising Pakistan’s army chief, foreign settlement of the conflict instead of fighting.172 The secretary, the head of the Inter-Services announcement of spring offensive by Afghan Intelligence (ISI) and other senior military officials, visited Kabul where Army chief held an exclusive

170 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1663302/9-pakistan- 173 https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/326802-us- reiterates-support-afghanistan-taliban-peace-talks/ secretary-of-state-pompeo-telephones-army-chief- 171 https://www.dawn.com/news/1406343/afghan- qamar-bajwa gunships-killed-36-in-attack-on-madressah-last-month- 174 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1730416/1-mike- says-un pence-phones-pm-mulk/ 172 https://www.dawn.com/news/1404136/pakistan- calls-for-peaceful-settlement-of-afghan-conflict

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 one-on-one meeting with President Ghani In addition, the UN, the US and other stakeholders followed by delegation-level talks. The army chief made continuous efforts for extension in ceasefire also had meetings with Afghan Chief Executive but without any success as Taliban on 17 June Abdullah Abdullah and Commander Resolute refused to extend ceasefire.176 Support Mission (RSM) General John Nicholson.175 Eid Message of Afghan Taliban- Direct Talks with the US

Importantly, in his important Eid message on 12 June, Afghan Taliban chief Hibatullah Akhundzada renewed his call for direct talks with the US to end the war in Afghanistan. “If the American officials truly believe in a peaceful end to the Afghan imbroglio then they must directly present themselves to the negotiation table” he said insisting that only direct talks between the Taliban and the US government can end “this tragedy (the war), the destructive effects of which mainly harm the American and Afghan people”.177 On 16 June, President Ashraf Ghani ordered the extension ceasefire with Taliban insurgents, offered to provide medical treatment to injured Taliban fighters and announced that 46 Taliban prisoners had been released as a sign of official goodwill. President Ghani said that his government was ready for “comprehensive peace and talks” and that he would be willing to discuss all Taliban concerns, including “the future role of international troops” in the country. In Washington, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo expressed support for cease-fire extension and offer of peace talks. In Kabul, a statement from U.S. military officials echoed Ghani’s declaration that such talks must include a discussion of the role of foreign forces. “The United States is prepared to

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Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 support, facilitate and participate in these ceasefire by Taliban ended, violence returned in discussions,” the statement said.178 After the Afghanistan. Change of US Strategy; Opting for Direct Talks

Since the beginning of July, increased Afghanistan on 9 July where he held meetings with diplomatic activities were noticed and US State Afghan leadership. Pompeo later told journalists Department’s deputy assistant secretary of South "The United States will support, facilitate and and Central Asian Affairs Ambassador Alice Wells participate in these discussions" stressing that any visited Afghanistan179 and Islamabad.180 In the talks would be "Afghan-led and Afghan-owned".183 meanwhile, engagement between Pakistan and Similarly, religious scholars, in a two-day Afghanistan also continued.181 On 6 July, Afghan conference in the holy city of Makkah, on 11 July Taliban again rejected an offer for peace talks with declared the Taliban war in Afghanistan the government in Kabul as the statement from “religiously prohibited,” urging the Taliban and Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said that Afghan government to hold direct talks and find a the militants “are not interested in talks while solution to the longstanding conflict.184 However, foreign soldiers are still on Afghan soil”. Mujahid once continued efforts for starting an intra-Afghan also repeated long-standing Taliban claims that talks failed, a clear shift in US policy was noticed Afghan government officials were “puppets”.182 and reportedly Trump administration asked its top diplomats to seek direct talks with the Taliban in However, efforts towards initiation of the hope of jump-starting negotiations.185 On 16 peace talks continued and U.S. Secretary of State July, General John Nicholson said that the US is Mike Pompeo paid an unannounced trip to ready to join direct negotiations with the Taliban

178 182 https://www.dawn.com/news/1418458/afghan- https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/ taliban-again-reject-talks-offer afghan-government-extends-cease-fire-with-taliban- 183 asfighters-join-civilians-to-celebrate- https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2018/0 eid/2018/06/16/a3fcecce-7170-11e8-b4d8- 7/09/mike-pompeo-surprise-trip- eaf78d4c544c_story.html?utm_term=.a35e82cc703d afghanistan/769735002/ 179 https://www.dawn.com/news/1417551/senior-us- 184 https://dailytimes.com.pk/266349/saudi-moot- official-arrives-to-discuss-afghan-peace declarers-taliban-war-haram/ 180 https://www.dawn.com/news/1417812/pakistan- 185 us-to-work-towards-peace-in-afghanistan https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/15/world/asia/afg 181 https://www.dawn.com/news/1418055/coas- hanistan-taliban-direct-negotiations.html afghan-envoy-discuss-framework-implementation

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 and discuss the role of international forces.186 at the same venue in October187 though some Subsequently, the same month the first ever direct unconfirmed media reports also claimed that talks between the US and Afghan Taliban were various rounds of talks between the two sides held in Qatar followed by a second round of talks were held in Qatar. Change of Government in Pakistan and Fresh Efforts for Improving Relations

After coming into power of PTI led Committee of the Joint Ulema Conference and the government, Prime Minister Imran Khan extended working groups of Afghanistan-Pakistan Action hand of friendship with Kabul. newly appointed Plan for Peace and Solidarity (APAPPS). They also foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi as well as agreed for a second round of the trilateral meeting Prime Minister Imran Khan talked about improving of Afghanistan, Pakistan and China. Mr. Qureshi relations with Afghanistan. FM Qureshi on 20 also reiterated Pakistan support to Afghan August, vowed to review Pakistan's foreign policy reconciliation process.189 and said that he would send a message of peace towards Afghanistan. The Foreign Minister said he In October when Kandahar police chief wanted to tell the people of Afghanistan that the Gen. Abdul Raziq and intelligence chief Mumin two countries needed to become the support base Hussainkhil were killed in the attack, Afghan of each other, adding that Pakistan and Afghanistan authorities including Afghan President Ashraf had the capability to become a good support Ghani blamed the attack on a global terrorist mechanism for each other.188 On 3 September, network that he alleged was operating out of Afghan Foreign Minister called his Pakistani Pakistan. Moreover, Afghan premier intelligence counterpart and both sides agreed on continued agency National Directorate of Security blamed cooperation under Afghanistan Pakistan Action that the attack was planned inside Pakistan. Plan for Peace and Solidarity (APAPPS). However, Pakistan rejected the allegations and Subsequently, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister paid asked Afghanistan to share evidence to support one-day visit to Kabul on 15 September and held their claim advising Kabul to use diplomatic talks with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, Chief channel instead of talking through media.190 The Executive Abdullah Abdullah and held delegation- development created rift between Pakistan and level talks with his Afghan counterpart Salahuddin Afghanistan and the situation got further Rabbani. The two foreign ministers took decisions complicated after SP Tahir Dawar Saga. The on holding meetings of the Joint Economic abduction from Islamabad of SP Tahir Khan Dawar Commission (JEC), Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit and his subsequent killing in Afghanistan put Trade Coordination Authority (APTTCA), Steering Afghanistan and Pakistan at the cross roads showing wide cleavages between Kabul and

186 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan- 189 https://www.dawn.com/news/1433206/pakistan- taliban/us-ready-for-direct-talks-with-afghan-taliban- ready-to-train-afghan-law-enforcers-fm general-says-idUSKBN1K61WT 190 187 https://www.dawn.com/news/1438880 https://www.efe.com/efe/english/portada/pakistan- 188 https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/357749- denies-latest-afghan-attack-was-planned-on-its- pakistan-extends-olive-branch-to-afghanistan-india soil/50000260-3791011

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Islamabad. The saga did not end at the abduction cooperation. The dialogue was aimed at building in killing alone but the subsequent developments political trust in Afghanistan-Pakistan relations; put a question mark on the dealing from Afghan cooperation on counterterrorism; peace efforts side. It may be noted that SP Tahir Khan Dawar, the and regional connectivity. All the three counties head of Peshawar police’s rural circle, was expressed determination to fight and eliminate kidnapped from Islamabad on Oct 26. On 13 terrorism “in all its forms and manifestations, and November, a body said to be of the officer was without any distinction”. There was consensus that found in Nangarhar province of Afghanistan. The participating countries would not allow their paper found on the body written in the Pashto territories to be used by terrorists against any language carried the name of the Wilayat other country. Speaking at the trilateral meeting, Khorasan, the nomenclature the Islamic State (IS) Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said militant organisation used to refer to the Pak- improved border coordination would benefit both Afghan region.191 Pakistan demanded of the Pakistan and Afghanistan. He underscored the Afghan authorities to conduct an immediate importance of increasing security cooperation and investigation into killing of SP Dawar.192 There were intelligence sharing.193 Later on 24 December, feelings in Pakistan that abduction and killing of SP Foreign Minister visited Kabul as part of his Dawar was handiwork of Afghan intelligence regional tour of four countries including agency. Afghanistan, Iran, China and Russia. During visit to Kabul, he held talks with his Afghan counterpart as On 15 December, an important second well as called on President Ashraf Ghani.194 Though trilateral foreign ministers dialogue between exact nature of the visit is still not known, the visit Afghanistan, China and Pakistan was held in Kabul took place after media reports that the US was where three countries signed an MoU for planning of withdrawal of some troops from intensification of their counterterrorism Afghanistan. Second Ceasefire by Afghan Government; Taliban Remained Defiant

President Ashraf Ghani declared a However, Taliban did not respond positively to provisional three-month ceasefire with the Taliban government’s ceasefire. In his Eid message, Afghan in a televised broadcast on 19 August.195 The Taliban chief Habitullah Akhwanzada, inter alia, ceasefire was welcomed by NATO and Pakistan.196 said, “This year Eid-ul-Adha approaches us as our Initially, there were reports that Afghan Taliban Jihadi struggle against the American occupation is were also considering ceasefire during Eid.197 on the threshold of victory”. He said that foreign

191 https://www.dawn.com/news/1445460/long-wait- 195 https://www.dawn.com/news/1428005/afghan- for-body-of-police-officer-tortured-to-death-in- president-offers-taliban-new-provisional-ceasefire afghanistan 196 https://www.dawn.com/news/1428004/pakistan- 192 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1847135/1-kp-police- welcomes-afghan-govts-ceasefire-offer-to-taliban awaits-return-tahir-dawars-body-afghanistan/ 197 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan- 193 https://www.dawn.com/news/1451682 taliban/afghan-taliban-considering-eid-holiday- 194 https://www.dawn.com/news/1453343 ceasefire-sources-idUSKBN1KZ1WA

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 forces have lost all will of combat, their strategy propositions that prolong this war for America, has failed, advanced technology and military make it costlier and nudge it towards failure.” equipment rendered useless while sedition and Habitullah also criticized OIC, Saudi Arabia and the corruption-sowing group defeated. He also religious scholars for not understanding the criticised President Ashraf Ghani calling his struggle in Afghanistan and calling it a civil war. He government the corrupt regime. Taliban chief once advised them to understand the trap laid by the US. again reiterated the demand for direct talks with The Eid message from Afghan Taliban chief clearly the US but said, “in order to avoid responsibility for indicated that Taliban were emboldened by the this war, the Americans propose options other recent successes in the field and their latest surge than constructive negotiations that are neither in attacks was meant to give them an upper hand rational nor practical; rather it is these same in any future talks. Moscow Initiative and Sense of Urgency in the US Camp

After postponing planned dialogue in talks with United States (US) envoy Zalmay Russia scheduled for 4 September on the request Khalilzad as Khairullah Khairkhwah, the former of Afghan government, Russia hosted an Taliban governor of Herat, and Mohammed Fazl, a international meeting on Afghanistan in Moscow on 9 November, which was attended by Taliban while members of Afghanistan's High Peace Council, which oversees peace efforts but does not represent the Afghan government, were also present. The Taliban sent a five-member delegation from its political office based in Qatar. Countries also present in Moscow included China, Pakistan, Iran, India and Central Asian states198 with India represented at non-official level while the US had a low representation as its diplomatic staff based in its embassy in Moscow attended the moot. No formal statement was issued after the talks. For the first time, Afghan Taliban attended a talk that was hosted in foreign country and that too by Russia. Importantly, the US also attended the Russia initiative though not actively but its presence as an observer was also significant. Since holding of Moscow talks to broker peace talks on Afghanistan on 9 November, a sense of urgency was seen in the US camp and according to media reports a fresh and prolonged round of talks between Afghan Taliban and the US was held in Qatar. Reportedly, Taliban have held three days of

198 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-46155189

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 former Taliban military chief, attended the marathon talks.199 Talks in UAE and Taliban’s Refusal to Engage Afghan Government

In December, US diplomats and Taliban pressure from regional countries including representatives met in the United Arab Emirates Pakistan to open talks with Afghan government. for talks facilitated by Pakistan on finding a On 8 January 2019, Afghan President’s Special negotiated settlement of the war in Afghanistan. Envoy for Regional Consensus for Afghan Peace The meeting in Abu Dhabi was also attended by Mohammad Umer Daudzai visited Islamabad to officials from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the seek Pakistan’s help for convincing the Taliban for UAE.200 The next round of talks between the US holding talks with the Ghani administration.203 and Taliban were scheduled to be held in Saudi Although Pakistan assured the Afghan envoy that Capital Riyadh in January but the talks were it will do whatever possible, there is least cancelled after Taliban sought venue change from possibility that Afghan Taliban would show Riyadh to Qatar to fend off pressure from Saudi flexibility on their stance not to engage with Ashraf Arabia on Taliban to open talks with Afghan Ghani regime whom they call a “puppet” as Taliban government.201 Later, peace talks with the US in continuously and consistently defied such pressure Qatar were also cancelled following disagreements from Pakistan and other regional players. over the agenda of the meeting as Taliban rejected the participation of Afghan government officials in the deliberations.202 Taliban consistently rejected Conclusion

While there were many ups and downs in political means. Throughout the year, Pakistan bilateral relations between Afghanistan and made concerted efforts to improve relations with Pakistan, political and military leadership in Afghanistan and Pakistan is keenly interested to Pakistan is convinced that stability in Pakistan is broaden their relations for economic development directly linked with stability in Afghanistan and and regional connectivity. Towards the Afghan that Afghan issue can only be resolved through end-game, Pakistan is playing a proactive role to

199 202 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/01/afghan- https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/taliba taliban-hold-fourth-peace-talks-qatar- n-hold-talks-with-us-envoy-in- 190108070441726.html qatar/article25530439.ece 203 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1883584/1-talks- 200 https://www.dawn.com/news/1452076 taliban-afghan-presidents-special-aide-arrive-today/ 201 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan- taliban/taliban-seek-venue-change-for-peace-talks- with-us-idUSKCN1P005P

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 bring Afghan Taliban to negotiation table and in this regard, efforts were seen from Pakistani side to bring all relevant stakeholder on board while also advocating for keeping an eye on anti-peace lobbies that could scuttle moves at finding a negotiated settlement of Afghan issue.

About the Author: Mr. Gul Dad is a counter-terrorism, security and foreign policy expert and currently serves as Director Research & HR of Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

PAKISTAN-US RELATIONS CONTINUED TO HOVER AROUND AFGHANISTAN

Gul Dad Dawning of 2018: President Trumps Accusation Against Pakistan and Pressure Tactics

While bilateral relations between Citing her human and economic losses Pakistan and US were already facing stress in despite limited resources, Pakistan (after a 2017 in the wake of the US strategy for South meeting of national security committee) Asia, the US internal security and foreign expressed displeasure for trivializing her policies where Pakistan was pictured in sacrifices and linking them to an imagined negative light, the year dawned with a tweet monetary value. Pakistan made it clear that it from the US President that plunged the cannot be held responsible for collective bilateral relations further into troubles as failure in Afghanistan and that political President Trump not only used harsh words infighting, massive corruption, growth of drug but also lamented giving Pakistan $33 billion in production, and expansion of ungoverned aid in last 15 years and alleging that Pakistan spaces holding sanctuaries for multiple was providing safe heavens to the militants terrorist organizations are the "real the US was fighting in Afghanistan.204 The US challenges" in the Afghan conflict. However, also blocked already-delayed $255 million in Pakistan expressed commitment to playing a aid to Pakistan. Pakistani political and military constructive role towards an Afghan-led and leadership reacted with restraint though it Afghan-owned peace process.206 There were launched protest by summoning the US even vibes that the US was also considering ambassador205. taking action into Pakistani territory and Pakistan Army issued a short statement that Pakistan would respond to any US action in

204 https://www.dawn.com/news/1380148/pakistan- 206 https://www.dawn.com/news/1380351/trumps- has-given-us-nothing-but-lies-and-deceit-us-president- incomprehensible-accusations-contradict-facts-negate- donald-trump pakistani-sacrifices-nsc 205 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1598233/1-fo- summons-us-ambassador-trump-tweet-registers- protest/

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 line with the aspirations of the people.207 As a in Afghanistan, Indian efforts of escalating pressure tactics, the US also placed Pakistan tensions with Pakistan and stressed for border on a special watch list "for severe violations of management measures to stop movement of religious freedom".208 militants.213 In an effort to put further pressure on Pakistan, the US carried out two On the other hand, Pakistan has been drone strikes on Pakistan-Afghanistan border consistently stating that there is no organized in Kurram Agency214. presence of any militant groups in Pakistan209 and lamented that the US was more inclined Pakistan continuously questioned the towards India not only with regards to use of force as a means to achieve the resolving festering issues210 but also raising objective of brining militants to negotiation objections to CPEC.211 Despite flurry of table while also indicating that in the presence accusations against Pakistan and stopping of of ungoverned spaces in Afghanistan and military assistance, Pakistan acted responsibly constant access to financial resources in the and gave a measured response. Importantly, form of narco-trade, militants do not require both the sides kept their channels of any external support.215 In last week of communication open and US side reportedly January, US carried out another drone strike in assured Pakistan that no unilateral action on Kurram Agency of FATA where Haqqani Pakistani soil was being planned212 while the Network Commander Ehsan alias Khawari and US assistant secretary of state Alice Wells also two of his companions were allegedly killed. visited Islamabad as Pakistan reportedly Pakistan condemned drone strike, conveyed concern for anti-Pakistan elements admonishing Washington for taking

207 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1599824/1-pakistan- 211 https://www.dawn.com/news/1380768/pakistan- america-still-friends-says-dg-ispr/ can-survive-without-taking-financial-assistance-from- 208 https://www.dawn.com/news/1380767/us-places- us-khawaja-asif pakistan-on-a-special-watch-list-for-severe-violations- 212 https://www.dawn.com/news/1382632/no-us- of-religious-freedom plans-for-unilateral-action-pakistan-told 209 https://www.dawn.com/news/1380964/pakistan- 213 https://www.dawn.com/news/1383099/us- fought-war-against-terrorism-largely-from-its-own- diplomat-alice-wells-acknowledges-pakistans-role-in- resources-fo-on-us-aid-cut countering-terrorism 210 214 https://www.dawn.com/news/1383516/drone- https://www.dawn.com/news/1380566/misunderstan strikes-on-both-sides-of-pak-afghan-border-kill-2- dings-between-us-and-pakistan-will-affect-peace- injure-1-suspected-militant efforts-in-afghanistan-ispr-chief 215 https://www.dawn.com/news/1384142/delusional- to-think-strategy-of-force-coercion-would-work-in- afghanistan-maleeha-lodhi-tells-un

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"unilateral actions" and asked the US to share targeting all terrorist groups operating within actionable intelligence for action by Pakistani its territory, without distinction”. The US also forces.216 Despite authorization from top US hoped that Pakistanis will help to “convince leadership, the sense prevailed and except the Taliban to enter a peace process.”217 I drone strikes, no military operation was conducted inside Pakistani territory possibly In the meanwhile, on 13 February, due to the apprehensions that it will escalate Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats situation and further plunge bilateral relations said Pakistan’s military is holding back between Pakistan and the US. counter-terrorism cooperation with the US while continuing to go easy on militant groups After suspending aid to Pakistan, the based in the country.218 Reportedly, a report US mantra for Pakistan of taking action against submitted to Congress by seventeen US militants operating in Afghanistan continued intelligence agencies warned Congress that but the US did acknowledge Pakistan’s Pakistan will continue to threaten US interests important role in “pushing al-Qaeda closer to by “deploying new nuclear weapons defeat, combating ISIS, securing its nuclear capabilities, maintaining its ties to militants, weapons, hosting Afghan refugees, and, restricting counterterrorism cooperation, and importantly, providing access for supplies and drawing closer to China”.219 In the meantime, equipment used by US and Afghan forces” in the US also moved a motion to place Pakistan addition sacrifices Pakistan made in fight on FATF watch list in relation to anti-money against terrorism but said that the US would laundering and combatting the financing of restore security assistance to Pakistan only terrorism220 which was seen in Pakistan as when Pakistan takes “decisive and sustained pressure tactics. actions to address our concerns, including Pakistan Sought Broad-based US-Pak Relations; Political Solution of Afghan Issue

After seeing tensions in their bilateral engagement is the best option. After the visit relations during larger part of first two months to Pakistan in last week of February by the US of 2018, Pakistan and the US were seen National Security Council official Ms Lisa making fresh efforts for reviving their troubled Curtis, Foreign Secretary Tehmina Janjua relations as both the countries realized that visited Washington on 07-08 March where she

216 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1617901/1-early- 218 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1634097/1-pakistan- dignified-return-afghan-refugees-essential-dg-ispr-asif- still-going-easy-militants-claims-us-spy-chief/ ghafoor/ 219 https://www.dawn.com/news/1389542/pakistan- 217 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1627836/1-us-lift-aid- slipping-out-of-us-influence-say-intelligence-agencies suspension-pakistan-takes-steps-state-dept/ 220 https://www.dawn.com/news/1390408

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 met senior US officials at State office as well as role to provide incentives to the Afghan the White House as she emphasized the need Taliban for undertaking negotiations with the for continuing constructive engagement Ashraf Ghani government. across the entire spectrum of bilateral relationship and hoped enhanced economic While Wells highlighted New Delhi’s engagement and realizing economic potential efforts to stabilize Afghanistan through in the relationship can open new vistas of long- investment in development projects, she term cooperation221 suggesting that Pakistan stressed that it did not mean that America was advocating for making the relations would support or let India manipulate the broad-based (not to center merely on Afghanistan issue to be used against developments related to Afghanistan). Pakistan.224 The statement indicated that the Pakistan also advocated for political solution US was also paying attention to Pakistani of Afghan issue instead of using force.222 concerns. Similarly, some confidence building measures from the US side were also Ahead of Pakistan’s foreign secretary witnessed as the US targeted anti-Pakistan visit to the US, Principal Deputy Assistant militant groups operating from Afghan soil. Secretary of State for South and Central Asia After killing TTP deputy chief Khan Said Sajna Alice Wells, on 5 March, said that both in a US drone strike in February, the son of TTP Pakistan and the Taliban have legitimate chief Mullah Fazlullah, along with 19 other grievances and the US was willing to address militants, was killed in the US drone strike those concerns. She acknowledged that across the border in Afghanistan on 7 “Pakistan has an important role to play in March.225 Moreover, the US Department of helping to stabilize Afghanistan.” She also Defence also ruled out hot pursuits into conceded that the suspension of US security Pakistan to take out terrorists who flee aid to Pakistan had failed to force Islamabad to Afghanistan. However, the US also continued change its policies.223 Later on 9 March, Wells exerting pressure on Pakistan and added said that Pakistan can play a much more seven Pakistani companies to a list of foreign important role in shaping the Afghan Taliban’s entities.226 Also, in March, PM Shahid Khaqan behavior. She stressed on Islamabad’s critical Abbasi met US Vice President Michael Pence in

221 http://embassyofpakistanusa.org/foreign-secretary- 224 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1656969/1-pakistan- tehmina-janjua-visited-washington-on-07-08-march- can-play-key-role-shaping-afghan-talibans-behaviour- 2018/ usdiplomat/ 222 https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/289737- 225 https://www.dawn.com/news/1393907/son-of-ttp- pakistan-us-are-partners-in-war-against-terror- chief-killed-in-drone-attack-in-afghanistan tehmina-janjua 226 https://www.dawn.com/news/1397628 223 https://www.dawn.com/news/1393696/pakistan- taliban-have-legitimate-grievances-us

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Washington227 that allowed further senior civil and military officials including engagement but the US asked Pakistan to do Foreign Secretary, Safron Minister, Interior more against militant groups228 and kept Minister, Advisor to PM on Finance, national asking Pakistan to take action against Taliban security advisor and Army chief230 suggesting and Haqqani Network.229 Again in March Alice that the US was willing to broaden its Wells visited Islamabad and held talks with engagement with Pakistan. US Blocking of Listing JuA Chief and Diplomatic Row

Before any meaningful broad-based Attaché Col Joseph Emanuel Hall) escape from engagement between Pakistan and the US police custody after a fatal traffic accident.232 could start, some negative developments took Similarly, Pakistan’s Federal Investigation place in May that further pushed back their Agency (FIA) said that it will not let the US bilateral relations. In sheer surprise to official, who was involved in fatal accident, Pakistan, the US blocked a Pakistani request leave Pakistan at any cost. However, Col with the UN Security Council’s sanction Joseph was later allowed to leave the country. committee for listing of Jamaatul-Ahrar (JuA) Also, in May, Foreign Ministry imposed chief Abdul Wali alias Umer Khalid Khurasani. reciprocal travel restrictions on American Pakistan showed its disappointment “over the diplomats in the country as similar restrictions failure of the Sanctions Committee to list Wali on the movement of Pakistani diplomats were who is a known terrorist and has the blood of imposed in the US. Moreover, Pakistan’s hundreds of innocent Pakistanis on his foreign office notified that US diplomatic cargo hands”.231 will be scanned at airports/ ports while seven facilities afforded to US diplomats were Possibly in retaliation to the US move, withdrawn including the use of non-diplomatic chief security officer (CSO) of the US embassy number plates on official vehicles, use of was arrested for alleged abetment in a crime diplomatic number plates on unspecified or and assaulting and harassing the police rented vehicles, and overshooting visa periods besides trying to help a US diplomat (Air and/or the use of multiple passports. The

227 https://www.dawn.com/news/1395829/pm-pence- 230 https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/300161- review-afghan-peace-push-amid-signs-of-thaw pakistan-can-play-meaningful-role-in-achieving-peace- 228 https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/293733-us- in-afghanistanalice-wells urges-pakistan-to-do-more-against-taliban 231 http://www.radio.gov.pk/14-05-2018/pakistan- 229 https://www.dawn.com/news/1395961/us-says-its- deeply-disappointed-over-un-failure-to-not-list- prepared-to-stop-attacks-on-troops-in-afghanistan khorasani-as-terrorist-foreign-minister 232 https://www.dawn.com/news/1406469/us- embassy-official-arrested-in-islamabad

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 embassy will also be unable to use tinted TTP chief Mullah Fazlullah in a US drone strike windows on official vehicles as well as rented in Kunar province of Afghanistan234 was a vehicles, or use SIMs that are not biometrically notable confidence building measure from the verified or registered.233 Later in June, killing of US side. US Nervousness on Growing China- Pakistan Relations and CPEC

In surprising development, US wrong to link any IMF package with CPEC," he Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, on 30 July, said.236 The statement of the US secretary of warned that any potential International state was seen in Pakistan as US easiness over Monetary Fund bailout for Pakistan’s new growing China-Pakistan relations and government should not provide funds to pay development of CPEC. While Pakistan, in off Chinese lenders.235 The statement drawn August, signed an agreement with Russia to criticism in Pakistan and Pakistan’s interim train its officers, the US stopped funds for such Foreign Minister Abdullah Haroon rejected training of military officers from Pakistan as Pompeo’s statement. He said that the the Trump administration refused to provide Pakistani government is determined to funds for their training. The fund for training complete China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Pakistani officers came from the US (CPEC) projects and that "there is absolutely government’s International Military Education no reason for anyone to intervene in the and Training Programme (IMET) but no funds [China-Pakistan] relationship". "It is the stated were made available for Pakistan for the next position of this government that it is totally academic year. Imran Khan Coming to Power: Resumption of Diplomatic Engagement

However, ice melted on Pakistan-US talking to media representatives on board his relations when at the start of September, US Pakistan-bound flight, Pompeo said he was Secretary of State Michal Pompeo, along with visiting Pakistan to reset bilateral relations and US military chief visited Islamabad. While that “there are lots of challenges between our

233 https://www.dawn.com/news/1407017 235 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-imf- 234 pakistan/us-pompeo-warns-against-imf-bailout-for- https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/06/pakistani- pakistan-that-aids-china-idUSKBN1KK2G5 taliban-chief-mullah-fazlullah-killed-drone-strike- 236 https://www.dawn.com/news/1424266/foreign- 180615094513389.html minister-rejects-us-secretary-of-states-opposition-to- imf-bailout-for-pakistan

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 two nations for sure, but we’re hopeful that Shah Mehmood Qureshi visited Washington with the new leadership, we can find common where he met US Secretary of State Mike ground and begin to work on some of our Pompeo and National Security Adviser John shared problems together”. He said, “We need Bolton in an attempt to revive relations Pakistan to seriously engage to help us get to between the two countries. In his address at the reconciliation we need in Afghanistan.” He the US Institute of Peace, he underlined the acknowledged that Pakistan too had important steps that the Trump administration had taken interests, including security interests, in against Pakistan, which he believed did not Afghanistan to “make sure they get the issues help improve relations that included cutting at their border right, and we need their military training and not giving precision help”.237 On arrival in Islamabad, Secretary equipment for use against militants. He also Pompeo along with his delegation met advised the US to avoid blame game being Pakistani prime minister in Islamabad on 5 counterproductive for bilateral relations. September. The meeting was also attended by Qureshi said Pakistan would act “in good faith” foreign minister, army chief and DG ISI. Soon to jumpstart diplomacy with the Taliban. after the conclusion of Pompeo’s visit to “Pakistan is willing and Pakistan will use all its Islamabad, US state department issued a influence to do that,” Qureshi said but added statement stating that Secretary of State Mike that Pakistan’s influence on Taliban has Pompeo conveyed the need for Pakistan to diminished.239 Reportedly, the US asked take ‘sustained and decisive measures’ against Pakistan to de-link the Pakistan-based Taliban terrorists and militants threatening regional leaders from their cadres in Afghanistan and peace and stability in all his meetings with civil force them to participate in peace talks.240 In and military leadership of Pakistan. Secretary second week of October, Zalmay Khalilzad, the Pompeo emphasised the important role US special envoy on Afghanistan and Pakistan, Pakistan could play in bringing about a visited Islamabad on his regional tour and met negotiated peace in Afghanistan238 suggesting Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi. that Afghan issue figured prominently in Subsequently, a round of talks between US bilateral engagement and that the US sought delegation led by Zalmay and Afghan Taliban Pakistan’s help in Afghan reconciliation was held in Doha suggesting that Pakistan process. delivered on its promises and peace efforts regarding Afghanistan started. In October, Pakistan Foreign Minister

237 https://www.dawn.com/news/1431096/pompeo- 239 https://nation.com.pk/05-Oct-2018/qureshi-urges- hopeful-to-find-common-ground-with-new- us-to-resume-aid government-in-islamabad 240 https://www.dawn.com/news/1437594/us-urges- 238 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1796123/1-pakistan- pakistan-to-ensure-taliban-cut-link-with-afghan-cadres urged-take-decisive-measures-terrorists-us/

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US President’s Out of Sync Tirade against Pakistan and Damage Control Measures

In November, a sudden flux in lodged a formal protest with the US by Pakistan-US relations was witnessed when the summoning US ambassador to the foreign US President, out of blue, criticised Pakistan office rejecting Trumps allegations and during Fox News interview defending his reminding the US that it was Pakistani decision to stop military aid to Pakistan, saying intelligence cooperation that provided the the country did not do "a damn thing" for the "initial evidence to trace the whereabouts of US and its government had helped Al Qaeda bin Laden.244 The US administration quickly leader Osama bin Laden hide near its garrison realised the possible damage that President city.241 Later, the US president continued with Trump’s allegations is going to inflict on his stance in his tweets. The stance of the US ongoing efforts towards Afghan peace talks president infuriated Pakistan government and where Pakistan was playing critical role. A day the PM found it mandatory to respond after Donald Trump’s tirade, Pentagon through twitter stating "Pak has suffered defended Pakistan’s vital role in maintaining enough fighting US's war. Now we will do what peace in South Asia and said Islamabad is best for our people & our interests". PM remains a ‘critical partner’ in the region Khan responded to Trump's statements, including the “facilitation of a peace process saying that Islamabad had decided to that would lead to a stable and peaceful "participate in the US War on Terror" although Afghanistan".245 As a damage control no Pakistani was involved in the 9/11 measure, President Trump also wrote a letter attacks.242 Also on 19 November, Minister for to PM Imran Khan seeking Islamabad's Foreign Affairs Shah Mehmood Qureshi said "assistance and facilitation in achieving a Pakistan could not be made responsible for negotiated settlement of the Afghan war. the failure in Afghanistan adding that Pakistan President Trump also acknowledged that the had been striving for a positive role in the war had cost both USA and Pakistan while Afghan reconciliation process.243 Pakistan also emphasising that “Pakistan and USA should

241 https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/395472- 244 https://www.dawn.com/news/1446767/baseless- 242 https://www.dawn.com/news/1446580/we-will-do- rhetoric-about-pakistan-totally-unacceptable-foreign- what-is-best-for-our-people-our-interests-pm-khan- secy-tells-us-ambassador fires-back-after-trump-tweets 245 https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/396321- 243 https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/395925-onus- pakistan-remains-a-critical-partner-says-pentagon- of-failure-in-afghanistan-cant-be-shifted-to-pakistan- after-trumps-tirade fm-qureshi

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 explore opportunities to work together and facilitation role in good faith adding that renew partnership". Reacting to letter, "Peace and stability in Afghanistan remains a Pakistan reiterated its commitment to play a shared responsibility”.246 Conclusion

No worthwhile bilateral engagement Afghan imbroglio through peace talks. Despite including resumption of broad-based strategic failure in achieving her objective of dialogue could be resumed in 2018 as broadening its relations with the US, Pakistan Pakistan-US relations continued to remain on the other hand made concerted efforts centred around developments related to towards Afghan reconciliation process Afghanistan as the US first kept pressure on primarily because stability in Pakistan was Pakistan to take action against Taliban and directly linked with stability in Afghanistan. Haqqani network but later sought Pakistan’s help to kick start peace talks with Afghan Taliban once it realised that its strategy of use of force failed to accrue desired dividends and that the US is left with only option of ending

About the Author: Mr. Gul Dad is a counter-terrorism, security and foreign policy expert and currently serves as Director Research & HR of Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies

PAKISTAN-SAUDI ARABIA STRATEGIC RELATIONS: DICTATES OF THEIR OWN DYNAMICS

Gul Dad

Year 2018 witnessed further improvement Joint Ministerial Commission was held in in bilateral relations between long-time ally and Islamabad on 16-17 January 2018. During the two- strategic partners Pakistan and Kingdom of Saudi day session, meetings were held between the Arabia (KSA) after having Pakistan trying to experts of the two sides on a number of issues, maintain a balance between its ties with Iran and especially focusing on trade, commerce, energy, Saudi Araba during the year 2017. While KSA came consular affairs, education, health and other forward to help Pakistan to bolster its dwindling matters of mutual interest. During the session of economy, Pakistan made steps in security domain. Joint Ministerial Commission, Pakistani side The 11th Session of Pakistan –Saudi Arabia stressed the importance of cooperation between

246 https://www.dawn.com/news/1449174/letter-to- pm-trump-acknowledges-afghan-war-cost-both-usa- pakistan

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

Saudi oil and gas companies to develop oil every possibility that this closeness between India production in Pakistan including setting up of and Iran might have contributed in Pakistani refineries.247 In early February 2018, Pakistani decision to send troops to Saudi Arabia. Soon after, Army Chief Gen Bajwa visited Saudi Arabia and a negative development came in the shape of KSA held talks with Saudi leadership including crown abandoning Pakistani support at the Financial prince Abdulllah in addition to meeting military Action Task Force (FATF) meeting in Paris251 and leadership. created a divide between KSA and Pakistan. Following army chief’s visit, Pakistan Army on 15 February announced that it is deploying However, after general elections in troops in Saudi Arabia under an existing bilateral Pakistan and even before forming of the security pact. “In continuation of ongoing Pak-KSA government, an effort was witnessed from Iran to bilateral security cooperation, a Pakistan Army extend hand of friendship with expected prime contingent is being sent to KSA on training and minister Imran Khan whose party, the PTI, secured advice mission,” the Inter-Services Public Relations highest number of seats in the elections and Imran announced after a meeting between Army Chief Khan was poised to become the prime minister. Gen Qamar Bajwa and Saudi Ambassador Nawaf Imran Khan met with ambassadors of key regional Saeed Al-Maliki at the General Headquarters. The and international players including US, UK, Russia, ISPR insisted that the new deployment and nearly Japan, the EU, China, Saudi Arabia, Iran and India. 1,000 Pakistani troops already stationed there Heightened diplomatic activities were seen on the would not be “employed outside KSA”248. part of both Iran and Saudi Arabia. Importantly, not only Saudi Arabia and Iranian ambassadors This announcement created a storm in the met Imran Khan but the heads of the state/ parliament and questions were raised in both the government of these two countries also found it houses – the National Assembly and Senate – as expedient to telephone Imran Khan as Iranian the parliament had previously advised the President Rohani called Imran Khan252 so did the government to stay away from conflict in Middle monarch of Saudi Arabia as well as its crown East. National Assembly asked the foreign ministry prince.253 A two-day visit of Iranian foreign minister to provide a detailed reply why Pakistani troops to Islamabad on 30 August254 where he met his were being deployed in the kingdom and under Pakistani counterpart in addition to meeting with which bilateral agreement.249 Notably, Iran on 17 army chief and the prime minister apparently February signed an agreement with India to created anxiety in Saudi camp so during private provide operational control of part of Iranian port visit to Saudi Araba in August by Pakistani army 250 (Chabahar) for 18 months, a decision which was chief Gen Bajwa to perform Hajj, Saudi crown perceived negatively in Islamabad and there was

247 http://pid.gov.pk/site/press_detail/7503 252 -https://www.dawn.com/news/1425755/irans- 248 https://www.dawn.com/news/1389722/army-says- rouhani-congratulates-imran-on-ptis-success-in-polls- troops-being-sent-to-saudi-ar invites-him-to-iran 249 https://www.dawn.com/news/1389964 253 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1779326/1-want-see- 250 https://www.dawn.com/news/1390165/india-to- prosperous-pakistan-saudi-king-salman-tells-imran/ get-operational-control-of-irans-chabahar-port 254 https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/361653- 251 https://www.dawn.com/news/1416630 iranian-foreign-minister-arrives-in-pakistan

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 prince met him followed by dinner255 with the view come out of the current economic crisis and to woo Pakistani military for maintaining space for addressing depleting foreign exchange reserves. Saudi Arabia. During and after the visit, a wrong perception was developed that KSA was included as third partner While August was the month of in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor257 and that engagement between Pakistan and Iran, Pakistan had taken China into confidence over the September witnessed such engagement between move.258 Later, it came to fore that KSA has not Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Due to Iran-Saudi been included in CPEC as third partner but that KSA rivalry, Pakistan-Iran engagement was seen will invest in Pakistan. 259 During the visit of PM nervously in Riyadh particularly the visit of Iranian Khan, Pakistan tried to sought KSA’s support to foreign minister to Pakistan. On 7 September, forcefully taking up the issue of Kashmir at UN Saudi Minister for Information Dr. Awwad Bin Human Rights Council in the backdrop of the Saleh Al Awwad visited Islamabad where he met report of the Office of the High Commissioner for top political and military leadership including Human Rights (OHCHR) on the human rights foreign minister, speaker National Assembly, army violations in held Jammu and Kashmir260 but chief, prime minister and the president. without much assurances from KSA. PM Imran Reportedly, during his meeting with the PM on 9 Khan offered services to play a role in ending September, the Pakistani prime minister invited conflict in Yemen.261 Later, a Saudi delegation greater investment by Saudi public and private visited Islamabad and on 3 October, federal sector in petroleum, energy, livestock and minister for petroleum announced that Saudi agriculture sectors.256 Arabia agreed in principle to set up a major refinery at Gwadar and showed commitment to On 18 September, PM Imran Khan paid a make investments in other areas of energy sector two-day visit to Saudi Arabia and met with top and that Saudi Arabia will set up an oil refinery at Saudi leadership including crown prince and the Gwadar. Moreover, Pakistan also requested Saudi King. Notably, when prime minister visited Saudi Arabia “to enhance crude supplies to Pakistan”.262 Arabia, army chief was on an important visit to China. While there were also other factors behind In September, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia these visits, the foremost was Pakistani efforts to during a meeting of the joint working group on

255 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1786391/1-army- 259 https://nation.com.pk/03-Oct-2018/no-intention- chief-meets-crown-prince-discuss-regional-security/ to-add-ksa-as-third-party-cpec-investor-minister 256 https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/366501- 260 https://www.dawn.com/news/1434003/pakistan- pakistan-seeks-greater-saudi-investment-in-multiple- saudi-arabia-pledge-to-defeat-terrorism sectors 261 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1808472/1-pm-imran- 257 https://www.dawn.com/news/1434079/saudi- offers-role-heal-middle-east-conflicts/ arabia-invited-to-become-third-strategic-partner-in- 262 https://www.dawn.com/news/1436741/talks-with- cpec-fawad-chaudhry saudi-arabia-on-8bn-gwadar-refinery-in-final-stages 258 https://www.dawn.com/news/1434278/china- taken-into-confidence-over-saudi-arabia-joining-cpec- information-minister

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 trade and investment agreed to work out Investment Initiative (FII) Conference in Riyadh in proposals for enhancing bilateral economic which Pakistani delegation headed by PM Imran cooperation through identifying specific areas in Khan represented Pakistan. Pakistan attended the trade and investment. Secretary Commerce conference despite a boycott from majority of Younus Dagha and Saudi Deputy Minister for international community over the issue of Foreign Trade Abdulrahman Alharbi co-chaired the Khashoggi's death. An MoU was signed under session. Dagha invited Saudi government and which Saudi Arabia was to deposit US$ 3 Billion for private sector to invest in oil refining, a period of one year as balance of payment petrochemicals and food processing industry in support.” It was further “agreed that a one-year Pakistan. Alharbi elaborated that the kingdom deferred payment facility for import of oil, up to desires to have close economic partnership with US$ 3 Billion, will be provided by Saudi Arabia for Pakistan and the two countries could cooperate three years.266 Reportedly, deferred oil facility with and have joint ventures in petro-chemicals, food Saudi Arabia should be complete and ready for processing and other sectors.263 In October, Saudi signature in January as a revised draft agreement Arabia agreed in principle to set up a major has been sent to Riyadh. Once the draft has been refinery at Gwadar with a possible investment of agreed at the technical level, it will be signed by the $5-8 billion and showed serious commitment to ministers of both countries possibly in January make investments in other areas of energy sector. 2019.267 Pakistan also offered Saudi Arabia to participate in the $2bn North-South Gas Pipeline and bid for the Given the level of cooperation between upcoming 10 petroleum exploration blocks to be Pakistan and KSA as well as complementary nature offered for auction.264 After approval from the of their strategic relations at time of various issues federal cabinet, the MoU on setting up refinery at that both the countries face in their socio- Gwadar will be signed between the countries in economic and political domains, an upward trend January/ February 2019 when Saudi Crown Prince in their bilateral relations is likely to continue in Abdullah is expected to visit Pakistan.265 2019 with Pakistan interested to attract greater Saudi investments in various sectors. There is Considering their strategic relations and a strong possibility that Saudi Arabia will also come long history of cordial relations, Saudi Arabia came forward in oil exploration in Pakistani coastal belt to rescue Pakistan to deal with the issue of balance and Saudi investments are also expected in special of payments. On 23 October, Saudi Arabia stepped economic zones that are being established under forward with a $6 billion bailout package for China-Pakistan Economic Corridor in various parts Pakistan’s ailing economy. The package included of the country. On the other hand, Pakistan will $3bn balance of payments support and another continue to provide security assistance to Saudi $3bn in deferred payments on oil imports. Arabia with an utmost effort not to get embroiled Agreements in this regard were signed on the side- in conflicts in Saudi periphery. lines of the second edition of the annual Future About the Author: Mr. Gul Dad is a counter-terrorism, security and foreign policy expert and currently serves as Director Research & HR of Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies.

263 https://www.dawn.com/news/1431435/saudi- 265 https://nation.com.pk/20-Dec-2018/saudi-prince- arabia-pakistan-agree-to-boost-trade-ties to-visit-pakistan-in-feb-fawad 264 https://www.dawn.com/news/1436741 266 https://www.dawn.com/news/1440974 267 https://www.dawn.com/news/1454408

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

IRAN-PAKISTAN NARROWING DOWN DIVERGENCES TO STRENGTHEN RELATIONS

Gul Dad

Historically, Iran-Pakistan relations had Foreign Ministers also exchanged views on never been smooth and consistent as the two important developments on regional and countries witnessed various ups and downs international peace and security. They and the same trend continued in 2017 but supported political resolution of the Afghan 2018 was slightly different as the both the conflict for durable peace and stability in countries started realizing that narrowing Afghanistan, and the region. Expressing down divergences and cooperation between concerns about growing presence of Daesh in the two neighbours best suits their geo- Afghanistan and its implications for regional strategic and economic interests. security, the two sides underlined the need for Notwithstanding the fissures in bilateral further cooperation against trans-national relations, an increasing trend of convergence terrorist groups. Pakistan and Iran reiterated of geo-economic and regional interests of both support for the peaceful struggle of the the countries was crux of the relations peoples of Palestine and Kashmir for their between the two countries in 2018. right to self-determination. The two countries also emphasized the need for honoring of the Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif JCPOA commitments by all parties.269 During paid a two-day visit to Islamabad on 11-13 his meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister, March and held talks with top military and Army Chief Gen Bajwa on 13 March said, political leadership.268 According to a “Regional peace is dependent upon wider statement issued by Pakistan’s Foreign Office, cooperation within West Asia. We all need to two sides agreed to continue engagement for cooperate to root out transnational enhancing economic cooperation and security/crimes threat”.270 Reportedly, during reiterated their resolve to achieve the target Iranian Foreign Minister’s meeting PM Abbasi, of $ 5 billion by 2021. The Foreign Ministers the latter vowed to remove all obstacles that also underlined that Iran and Pakistan would were hindering the progress of the Iran- deepen connectivity between the two sister Pakistan Gas Pipeline Project.271 ports of Gawadar and Chahbahar to benefit from their complementarities. The two

268 https://www.dawn.com/news/1394731/iranian- 270 https://www.dawn.com/news/1395132/wider- foreign-minister-to-hold-talks-with-civilian-military- cooperation-in-west-asia-key-to-regional-peace-bajwa- leaders tells-zarif 269 http://mofa.gov.pk/pr-details.php?mm=NTk4Ng 271 https://www.dawn.com/news/1394809/pm-abbasi- irans-fm-zarif-agree-on-increasing-bilateral-trade-to-5- billionby-2021

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

However, no progress was After General Elections in Pakistan, Iran subsequently made on the pipeline and the tried to establish contact with the PTI who was project continued to remain in cold storage. to form the government. Before the formation Importantly, both the countries realized to of the government, not only Saudi Arabia and cooperate with regards to development of Iranian ambassadors met Imran Khan but the their respective ports and avoid competition heads of the state/ government of these two that is bound to negatively affect development countries also found it expedient to telephone of both the ports. Despite irritants in their Imran Khan as Iranian President Rohani called bilateral relations, Iranian bilateral relations Imran Khan272 but also the monarch of Saudi with India and Pakistan’s relations with Saudi Arabia as well as Crown Prince called Imran Arabia, both Pakistan and Iran have covered Khan273 suggesting that both countries were some distance to improve their bilateral making efforts for establishing relations with relations particularly in economic field. While the new government during very early days these irritants continue to shadow their into office. During meeting with Iranian bilateral relations, both the countries have Ambassador, Imran Khan said that Pakistan realized that the benefits of bilateral was ready to play a constructive and positive engagement are far greater than the cost and role between Iran and Saudi Arabia and they have shown willingness to move ahead desired to improve economic relations with irrespective of their foreign policy options with Iran.274 In the wake of US sanctions on Iran, regards to their arch-rivals. Thus, thaw in their Pakistan’s Foreign Office said on 9 August that relations is perceived beneficial for achieving Pakistan reserves the right to ‘pursue objectives of economic development, regional legitimate economic and commercial interests’ integration while perceiving that their with Iran.275 Subsequently, Iran-Pakistan respective foreign policy goals are more in line relations further warmed up with the with each other. Iranian statement on Kashmir formation of new government at Islamabad as and Pakistani statement with regards to JCPOA the Iranian foreign minister paid a two-day and Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline clearly manifest official visit to Islamabad on 30 August276 this phenomenon. With regards to Afghan where he met his Pakistani counterpart in reconciliation process and ever-growing addition to meeting with army chief and the threat of Daesh, there is unanimity of views prime minister. According to a press release between Pakistan and Iran hence providing an issued by Pakistan’s foreign office on 31 opportunity for both the countries to August after meeting between Iranian Foreign cooperate with each other. Minister Javad Zarif and Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, detailed

272 -https://www.dawn.com/news/1425755/irans- 274 https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/350633- rouhani-congratulates-imran-on-ptis-success-in-polls- iranian-envoy-calls-on-imran-khan invites-him-to-iran 275 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1777060/1-pakistan- 273 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1779326/1-want-see- pursue-economic-ties-iran-despite-us-sanctions/ prosperous-pakistan-saudi-king-salman-tells-imran/ 276 https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/361653- iranian-foreign-minister-arrives-in-pakistan

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 discussions were held on regional and global Islamabad clearly suggested that Iran was issues, including the situation in Afghanistan quite interested to cover the group before and the US decision to unilaterally withdraw Saudi Arabia could make inroads into the ranks from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of of the new government in Islamabad. Action (JCPOA). During the talks, Qureshi "supported Iran’s principled stance" and Upward trajectory in Iran-Pakistan expressed the hope that remaining parties to relations witnessed a blow at the beginning of the Iran deal would uphold their the last quarter of 2018 when on 16 October commitments. The foreign minister reiterated Iranian security personnel, including that Pakistan stands with Iran "in this hour of Revolutionary Guards intelligence officers, need". Qureshi stressed that Pakistan greatly were abducted near the Pak-Iran border. An values Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Iranian separatist group Jaish al-Adl claimed to Khamenei’s "strong and unswerving support have seized the personnel.278 On 16 October, for the just struggle of the people of Kashmir". issuing a statement, Pakistan’s Foreign Office FM Zarif also called on Army Chief as well PM pledged to offer all possible assistance to Imran Khan. According to Inter-Services Public locate the missing Iranian security personnel. Relations (ISPR), regional security situation "Both militaries, under a joint mechanism and other matters of mutual interest were established since last year, are working to discussed. The army's media wing said the ascertain the whereabouts of the Iranian visiting dignitary "acknowledged and guards. The Director General Military appreciated Pakistan’s contributions for Operations from the two sides are conflict prevention in the region".277 coordinating actions in this regard," read the Foreign Office statement. On 17 October, This warmth in Iran-Pakistan relations Iran’s Foreign Minister Javed Zarif telephoned was based on multiple factors. While both the his Pakistani counterpart Shah Mehmood countries were interested to improve bilateral Qureshi to discuss the situation arising out of economic relations, Iran was also interested to the abduction of Iranian guards. Foreign extend hand of friendship with Pakistan to Minister Qureshi said that such incidents were garner diplomatic support on the issue of the “handiwork of our common enemies nuclear deal signed by it with P5+1. Similarly, unhappy with the existing close, friendly Iran also found it expedient to start a fresh relations between Pakistan and Iran”. FM Zarif engagement with Imran Khan led PTI underscored Iran’s desire to overcome all government, which is clearly visible from first hurdles jointly with Pakistan in maintaining meeting of Iranian ambassador with Imran Khan immediately after election victory followed by a phone call from Iranian president. The visit by foreign minister to

277 https://www.dawn.com/news/1430142/pakistan- 278 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1828100/1-zarif-calls- stands-with-iran-in-this-hour-of-need-qureshi-on-us- qureshi-iranian-guards-kidnapping-near-pakistan- withdrawal-from-nuclear-accord border/

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 complete peace along the Pak-Iran border.279 carry out effective operation against the On 20 October, Iran’s top military commander terrorist group responsible for the attack on its Maj Gen Mohammad Hossein Bagheri phoned side of the border,” the FO said in a statement. Pakistan Army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa Six soldiers were killed and 14 others were and urged him to intensify efforts for search injured when militants attacked the Frontier and rescue of kidnapped Iranian border Corps convoy in Wakai region. The attack had guards. The Iranian commander further asked occurred a day after Pakistan and Iran signed a Gen Bajwa to enhance troop presence along memorandum of understanding for improving the border to ensure normality and prevent border security and stopping smuggling of illegal crossing of the frontier.280 In the petroleum products, drugs and arms and meanwhile, tensions were also witnessed in human trafficking284 suggesting that border border areas. Reportedly, on 19 October, issues and presence of militants, that target Iranian forces fired mortar shells into Chagai security forces of the respective countries, district and nearby areas though no human continued to remain one of the major irritants loss was reported but caused unrest in border between the two countries despite a desire towns.281 In the last week of October, Iranian from both the sides to address such issues. In Foreign Minister Javed Zarif visited Islamabad his regional trip with regards to Afghan where Pakistan offered coordinated security reconciliation process, Pakistan’s Foreign operations to Iran along the border to prevent Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi visited Iran terrorist activities.282 In mid-November, on 24 December and met top Iranian officials. Pakistan announced to have recovered five of He held talks with his Iranian counterpart on the 12 Iranian border guards283 without strengthening the already close bilateral elaborating how those five guards were relations. The two leaders also highlighted the recovered and why remaining seven guards need for improved people-to-people ties and could not be recovered. cooperation as well. Both the sides also agreed to expand economic cooperation while Iran In mid-December, Pakistan’s Foreign shown commitment to deepen relations with Office summoned Iranian Ambassador Mehdi Pakistan in trade, investment, connectivity and Honardoost to the Foreign Office to protest an border management. The two sides also attack on a Frontier Corps patrol near the exchanged views on the evolving regional and Pakistan-Iran border. “The Iranian Ambassador international situation. The two foreign to Pakistan was called to the Foreign Office to ministers also discussed developments lodge a strong protest against the ghastly concerning peace and reconciliation in incident. The government of Iran was urged to Afghanistan and on the ways to strengthen

279 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1828100/1-zarif-calls- 281 https://www.dawn.com/news/1440163/iranian- qureshi-iranian-guards-kidnapping-near-pakistan- forces-shell-border-villages border/ 282 https://www.dawn.com/news/1442759/pakistan- 280 https://www.dawn.com/news/1440362/iran-seeks- offers-coordinated-operations-along-border-to-iran army-chiefs-help-over-kidnapped-guards 283 https://www.dawn.com/news/1445786 284 https://www.dawn.com/news/1451672

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 cooperation in supporting an Afghan-led and Pakistan on Kashmir issue, Pakistani support to Afghan owned peace process.285 Iran on nuclear deal, etc. are some of the areas where interests of both the countries converge From the above discussions it is and a forward-looking approach is being abundantly clear that both the countries have witnessed from both the sides. Now the stage covered a long distance in improving their is set for further expanding their bilateral bilateral relations despite the fact that some of relations while also working on effective the border issues were acting as stumbling border management as a means to remove blocks. People to people contacts, economic remaining bottlenecks. With this background, cooperation, regional connectivity, further improvement in bilateral relations convergence of views on Afghan conflict, between Iran and Pakistan is expected in 2019 bilateral concerns emerging from presence of and beyond. Daesh in Afghanistan, Iranian support to About the Author: Mr. Gul Dad is a counter-terrorism, security and foreign policy expert and currently serves as Director Research & HR of Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies.

PAKISTAN-RUSSIA RELATIONS: CONVERGENCES AND DIVERGENCES

Gul Dad

For quite some time, warming up of etc are some of the points of convergence that relations between Pakistan and Russia was help both the countries to come closer to each witnessed. An upward trajectory in relations other. Similarly, transactional nature of between the countries was witnessed in 2018. Pakistan-US relations, US tilt towards India and While there were some areas of divergence, Russian desire to develop economically to re- both the countries identified various areas gain her international status also act as where convergence of opinion and mutual intervening variable for warming up of interests exists. With ever-changing regional/ Pakistan-Russia relations. international geo-strategic and geo-economic situation, many countries in this part of the In February 2018, Pakistan’s then world are re-arranging their foreign policy Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif paid a three- options. Both Pakistan and Russia, despite day official visit to Russia where he held being in opposite camps in the past, were seen bilateral consultations with Russian coming closer to each other. Situation in counterpart Sergey Lavrov. The two Ministers Afghanistan, rising threat of Daesh in the emphasized the importance of strengthening region, convergence of opinion with regards to bilateral engagement and diversifying resolving Afghan issue through dialogue, cooperation in various fields. The two Foreign economic development through connectivity, Ministers agreed to further intensify efforts to deepen cooperation in all areas of mutual

285 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1873840/1-pakistan- iran-vow-deepen-ties-key-sectors/

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 interest, including trade, energy, defense, of the Russian weapons technology. We are education, science & technology and people in negotiations [on air defence systems] and to people contacts. The Ministers expressed once we conclude negotiations, we will be desire to further expand bilateral trade and able to announce them”. The defence agreed to work together under the minister also outlined that Islamabad was framework of the Intergovernmental interested in acquiring T-90 tanks from Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Moscow as part of a long-term deal rather Technical and Cultural Cooperation. Russian than committing itself to a single purchase. Foreign Minister Lavrov emphasized the He added that negotiations for the purchase significance of cooperation in the field of of Russian Su-35 fighter jets are in their early energy, including realization of the North- stages, and an agreement in this regard may South gas pipeline project. There was also be reached “in the next few years”. “We are unanimity of views that unchecked also now discussing a wider range of military proliferation of Daesh in Afghanistan, exercises, we are looking at a wider range particularly along the borders of of military equipment and intelligence neighbouring countries, was a threat to peace sharing,” Khan said on the sidelines of the in the entire region. The Russian Foreign Moscow Conference on International Minister deeply appreciated Pakistan’s Security (MCIS).287 efforts and sacrifices in the fight against terrorism. He conveyed Russia’s continued More instances of warming up of support for enhancing Pakistan’s counter- Pakistan-Russia relations was witnessed later terrorism capabilities.286 Both the sides also in April as Pakistan’s National Security Advisor agreed to set up a commission to boost Naseer Janjhua as well as Army Chief General military cooperation. Bajwa paid official visit to Russia. Both Pakistani officials held talks with key Russia In the first week of April 2018, the officials. Reportedly, on 24 April, Pakistan and then Defence Minister Khurram Dastgir Khan Russia reaffirmed their commitment to visited Moscow to attend Moscow intensify bilateral military cooperation during Conference on International Security (MCIS). meetings between the top military and In an interview with Russian newspaper, he security leadership of the two countries. The said that Pakistan was in direct talks with the resolve to expand existing bilateral military Russian Federation for the procurement of cooperation was expressed when Chief of the sophisticated military hardware, including air Army Staff (COAS) Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa defence systems, fighter jets and battle tanks. opened his visit to Moscow with a meeting He said, “Air defence system is a different with Commander Russian Federation Ground kind of weapon we are interested. We are Forces Col Gen Oleg Salyukov soon after very much interested in a very wide range National Security Adviser retired Lt Gen Nasser

286 287 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1679752/9-pakistan- https://www.brecorder.com/2018/02/21/400305/fm- talks-russia-procurement-sophisticated-arms-says- khawaja-asif-holds-bilateral-consultations-with- defence-minister/ russian-counterpart/

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

Janjua-led delegation discussed key security threatening the territorial boundaries of the issues with Secretary of the Russian Security four nations. A spokesperson for Moscow’s Council Nikolay Patrushev. In his meeting with Foreign Intelligence Service also confirmed the COAS, Russian Ground Forces that the emergence of IS in Afghanistan Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleg prompted the deliberations in Islamabad. Salyukov said his country was interested in “The conference reached understanding of expanding the existing military cooperation the importance of coordinated steps to with Pakistan. Gen Bajwa, too, expressed prevent the trickling of IS terrorists from Syria Pakistan’s desire to enhance bilateral military and Iraq to Afghanistan, where from they engagements with Russia. Gen Bajwa praised would pose risks for neighbouring countries,” Russia’s “positive role” in resolving “complex Sergei Ivanov told state-run TASS media situations in the region”. The army chief, outlet. He said the director of the Russian spy according to ISPR, told the Russian Ground agency, Sergei Naryshkin, attended the Forces commander that Pakistan would Islamabad meeting along with Chinese and continue to play its part to “keep conflicts Iranian counterparts. They “stressed the need away from the region and seek approaches for a more active inclusion of regional powers which bring regional convergences into play in the efforts” to end the war in rather than divergences”. The army chief’s trip Afghanistan.289 This quadrilateral meeting of was preceded by the visit of National Security the heads of intelligence agencies of four Adviser Nasser Janjua to Russia. His meeting countries clearly indicate the level of threat with Russian Security Council Secretary these four countries are contemplating from Nikolay Patrushev resulted in an Daesh. While the US/ NATO forces are mostly understanding that the security cooperation concerned with violence coming from Afghan between the two countries needed a boost. Taliban, regional players were rating Daesh The press service of the Russian Security threat even bigger. Council reported that in their meeting, “issues of bilateral military cooperation in information In August 2018, Pakistan and Russia security and countering international signed an agreement for training of Pakistani terrorism were studied.”288 troops at Russian military training institutes. “Both countries signed the Contract on Reportedly, on 11 July, Pakistan Admission of Service Members of Pakistan in hosted an unprecedented meeting of heads RF’s (Russian Federation) Training Institutes,” of intelligence agencies from Russia, China the defence ministry said in a statement. The and Iran to discuss counter terrorism agreement was signed at the conclusion of cooperation, with particular focus on the the first meeting of Russia-Pakistan Joint build-up of Islamic State in Afghanistan. Military Consultative Committee (JMCC). Official sources in Islamabad confirmed that Russian Deputy Defence Minister Col Gen the participants held detailed discussions on Alexander Fomin led his side at the talks while joint measures to stop Afghan-based loyalists Pakistani Defence Secretary retired Lt Gen of the Middle Eastern terrorist group from Zamirul Hassan Shah headed the host side.

288 https://www.dawn.com/news/1403729/pakistan- 289 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1756610/1-pakistan-hosts- russia-agree-to-boost-military-cooperation spy-chiefs-russia-china-iran/

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19

Meanwhile, Gen Fomin visited General participated in anti-terrorism exercise Headquarters for a call on Chief of the Army organized by the SCO in Russia. The six-day Staff Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa. During his SCO drills, which brought the two countries meeting with Gen Bajwa, the Russian deputy together for the Exercise Peaceful Mission defence minister “expressed requirement” of 2018, were held at Chebarkul town in cooperation to defeat extremism, according Chelyabinsk Oblast in Russia. The exercise was to the Inter Services Public Relations. The two aimed at enhancing cooperation between had a discussion on “regional security member states to deal with the growing threat situation, and matters of mutual interest of terrorism and extremism. Around 3,000 including enhancement of bilateral defence soldiers from India, Pakistan, China, Russia, and security cooperation”.290 Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan taken part in the exercise.292 In October, third joint military drill between Russian and Pakistani army ‘Druzhba- On the divergent side is signing of deal III’ were held in Pakistan in which a contingent on 5 October between Russia and India for S- of 70 mountain troops of the Russian Army 400 long range surface to air missile system took part in the exercises held in SSG centre during the visit of Russian President Vladimir Pabbi. According to a statement issued by the Putin to India. The system is expected to be Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), this will delivered by 2020.293 In a delayed and be the third joint military drill between measured response, Pakistan’s Foreign Office Islamabad and Moscow under the bilateral on 19 October warned that the sale of Russian training cooperation agreement. Russia and S-400 missile system to India could destabilize Pakistan have been holding the “Friendship” the region but at the same time downplayed drills since 2016. In October 2016, they held its efficacy, noting that Pakistan had their first-ever joint military exercise in developed capabilities that could defeat Pakistan. In 2017, over 200 servicemen took India’s planned Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) part in the drills, hosted by Russia at Minralney System. “The Indian purchase of S-400 missile Vody in the North Caucasus.291 system is a part of their efforts to acquire a Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) System After joining of Shanghai Cooperation through multiple sources. This will further Organization as full member in 2017, Pakistan- destabilize strategic stability in South Asia, Russia cooperation on this multilateral forum besides leading to a renewed arms race,” an also grew. In August, Pakistani military FO statement on the missile deal said.294 The personnel along with military personnel of deal rang alarm bells in Pakistan. However, other SCO member stated including India

290 https://www.dawn.com/news/1425673 293 https://www.dawn.com/news/1436971/russia- 291 https://tribune.com.pk/story/1831201/1-russian- india-sign-5bn-deal-for-s-400-air-defence-system forces-arrive-pakistan-third-joint-military-drill/ 294 https://www.dawn.com/news/1440164/russias- 292 https://en.dailypakistan.com.pk/headline/sco- sale-of-s-400-missiles-to-india-may-destabilise-region- exercise-peace-mission-2018-pakistan-india-conduct- fo first-joint-anti-terror-exercise-in-russia/

Journal for Conflict and Security Studies 2018 -19 measured response from Pakistan indicated way it had been supporting during cold-war that it did not want to want to annoy Moscow era. in the wake of growing bilateral relations between Russia and Pakistan. Due to Russian geo-strategic and economic compulsions, Russia is interested to strike some balance for its relations with Pakistan and India. However, one thing could be expected that Russia would not support India on international forums the

About the Author: Mr. Gul Dad is a counter-terrorism, security and foreign policy expert and currently serves as Director Research & HR of Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies.