Corporate Capital Airports Holding Company
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Corporate China Capital Airports Holding Company Ratings Overview Issuer Rating . Pengyuan International has assigned a first-time global scale long-term issuer LT Issuer Credit Rating A- credit rating (LTICR) of “A-“ to Capital Airports Holding Company (CAH), with a stable outlook. Outlook Stable . The rating reflects CAH’s position as China’s leading airport business: the Group operates one of the most strategically important airports in China, and the new addition of Daxing International airport may open up new business and growth potentials. Contents . Founded in 2002 and headquartered in Beijing, Capital Airports Holding Company is subordinated to the Civil Aviation Administration of China. Through its subsidiaries, the Group mainly engages in airport management, Key Rating Drivers ........................... 1 airport construction, logistics, real estate, hotel management and financial Business Profile……………………...3 investment. The Group manages 54 airports in seven provinces and autonomous regions, including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Jiangxi, Jilin, Inner Financial Profile……………………...7 Mongolia and Heilongjiang. By passenger traffic, the Group is one of the Liquidity ........................................... 8 largest airport management groups in the world. Company Background ..................... 9 Rating Outlook Peer comparison............................ 10 . The stable outlook for CAH reflects Pengyuan International’s expectation that Rating Scores Summary ................ 12 the Group will be able to maintain its market position as one of the leading Related Criteria .............................. 12 airport groups in the world, buoyed by its strong regional advantage and efficient cash flow management. Pengyuan International expects the Group to remain a direct affiliate of the Civil Aviation Administration of China. We would consider downgrading CAH’s issuer credit rating if its credit profile Contacts deteriorates substantially, which could be caused by: 1) a significant decrease in passenger traffic and cargo market share; 2) weakening willingness from the central government to support the Group; and 3) substantial deterioration Primary Analyst in the Group’s financial profile. Name Jonathan Joseph Tai, CFA Title Analyst . We would consider upgrading CAH’s issuer credit rating if its credit profile Direct +852 3615 8276 improves substantially, which could be caused by strengthened ties with the Email [email protected] central government. Secondary Analyst Financial Summary Name Brian Lam Title Director Exhibit 1: Financial Ratios Direct +852 3615 8339 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F Email [email protected] Debt/EBITDA NC NM N.M 5.45x 4.74x EBITDA Interest Coverage 3.39 N.M 0.00 1.88 2.51 Gross Debt/Capitalisation 25.52 28.19 30.78 32.68 34.35 FFO/Debt NC -84.9% -4.9% 14.1% 17.0% OCF/Debt NC -45.4% -34.9% 6.5% 10.8% FCF/Debt NC -144.2% -69.8% -26.4% -16.3% ROIC 5.6% -6.0% -5.0% -1.6% -0.4% NC=Net Cash, NM= Not meaningful Sources: Group, Pengyuan International 18 June 2021 Page | 1 RA02050200021 Corporate China Key Rating Drivers Credit Strengths Important industry position and leading scale advantage. In normal business conditions, the Group has reported almost 40% higher in revenue and has nearly doubled the passenger traffic than the second largest airport. The Group has an airport portfolio focusing on the northern region of China, and has a total of 54 airports. Notably. Beijing Capital Airport, one of the Group’s subsidiaries and one of the most important airport hubs in China, ranks first in terms of passenger and air traffic, and second in terms of air cargo delivered in FY2019 or normal business conditions. With the commencement of Daxing International Airport, the Group’s long-lasting operating capacity problem has been relaxed and it has opened up a lot of synergistically real estate and airport operation business potential. Strong governmental connections and importance with the aviation authority of China. Fully-owned by the Civil Aviation Administration of China, the Group has been long-time receiving government support in the form of income, tax cuts and direct asset injections. We see the government’s strong influence over CAH’s long term strategies, by appointing board members and senior management to the Group. The Group’s control over the two Beijing airports – with Beijing Capital being one of the most important airport hubs in China – solidifies its importance to the government. In addition, the Group’s products and services represent an image of China, and it is also strategically important for the region’s economic development, and in some occasions vital for national security. Given its strong ties with and importance to the government, we expect CAH to continue to receive government support in distressed situations. Maintain solid leverage and liquidity profile amid the epidemic. Despite the impact of the epidemic, the Group has maintained decent liquidity without requiring more borrowing and equity financing. The Group has arguably slightly tight liquidity after withstanding one of most disastrous events in the industry. This is because a significant large portion of the Group’s expenses is non-cash, hence the impact on liquidity is less significant than income. Credit Weaknesses Profitability under pressure. The COVID-situation has already posed unprecedented challenges to the Group, with additional idiosyncratic risks exerting more pressure on the Group: PP&E more than doubled in FY2019 mainly due to the addition of Daxing international airport, which had significantly increased the Group’s operational fixed cost. Depreciation, for instance, increased to RMB5.3 billion in 2020, representing roughly 37.5% of revenue, and more than 150% increase from 2018’s figure. The increase in PP&E and depreciation will create future maintenance CAPEX pressure while the Group’s liquidity level is now relatively low. In addition, future profits are also under pressure amid uncertainties due to the increased operating leverage and the COVID situation. Less efficient asset turnover and cost control. Compared to international airport groups, the Group is subject to more political interference, and we observe that Chinese airport groups, regardless of their business focuses on global or domestic markets, are generally less efficient in asset turnovers and operating expense control than their international counterparts in normal business conditions. The Group’s business operations are heavily dictated by the government and its policies, while some of these policies can be beneficial to the Group, it can also limit the Group’s flexibility to take advantage of the booming industry or force the Group to incur inefficient capital expenditures. 18 June 2021 Page | 2 RA02050200021 Corporate China Exhibit 1: Key Credit Metrics (RMB in millions) 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F Financials and Profitability Revenue 24,874 15,903 18,125 23,156 26,260 EBITDA 6,976 -2,339 8 4,126 5,831 EBITDA Margin 28.0% -14.7% 0.0% 17.8% 22.2% Return on assets (ROA) 4.5% -3.7% -3.0% -1.0% -0.2% Return on invested capital (ROIC) 5.6% -6.0% -5.0% -1.6% -0.4% Cash Flow Measures Funds from operations (FFO) 3,012 -5,218 -858 3,165 4,708 Operating cash flows (OCF) 17,898 -2,790 -6,133 1,460 2,979 Free cash flow (FCF) 12,558 -8,864 -12,251 -5,926 -4,492 Discretionary cash flow (DCF) 12,558 -8,864 -12,251 -5,926 -4,492 Capital expenditure 5,341 6,075 6,118 7,386 7,471 Balance Sheet Measures Cash and liquid investments 43,919 37,086 28,051 25,860 23,622 Excess cash 41,667 34,013 25,014 22,654 20,219 Total debt 37,962 40,160 42,570 45,124 47,831 Adjusted debt -3,705 6,147 17,555 22,470 27,612 Total capitalisation 148,765 142,454 138,282 138,077 139,258 Leverage Measures Debt/EBITDA NC NM NM 5.4x 4.7x EBITDA/Interest expense 3.4x NM 0.0x 1.9x 2.5x Gross Debt/Capitalisation 25.5% 28.2% 30.8% 32.7% 34.3% FFO/Debt NC -84.9% -4.9% 14.1% 17.0% OCF/Debt NC -45.4% -34.9% 6.5% 10.8% FCF/Debt NC -144.2% -69.8% -26.4% -16.3% DCF/Debt NC -144.2% -69.8% -26.4% -16.3% Debt/Equity -3.3% 6.0% 18.3% 24.2% 30.2% FFO/Cash interest expense 1.5x -2.5x -0.4x 1.4x 2.0x NC=Net Cash, NM= Not meaningful Sources: Group, Pengyuan International Business Profiles Important industry position and location advantage The Group is the largest airport group in China in terms of assets and passenger traffic, and it is directly affiliated to the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), which is the aviation authority under the Ministry of Transport of the China. The Group has a total of 54 airports scattered around Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Jiangxi, Jilin, Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang. It has essentially strong control of airports in the northern and north-east region of China. Exhibit 3: Key Performance Indicators in 2019 250 4,500 1,800 Capital Airport Group 4,000 1,600 Shanghai Airport Group Guangzhou Baiyun 200 3,500 1,400 Chongqing Airport Group 3,000 1,200 Eastern Airport Group 150 2,500 1,000 Zhejiang Airport Group Haihang Airport Group 2,000 800 100 1,500 600 1,000 50 400 500 200 0 0 0 Passenger Traffic, in millions Cargo Volume in thousand tonnes Arrival and Landing, in thousands Sources: companies, Pengyuan International In “normal” years, or the pre-pandemic periods, CAH led the industry by almost double the passenger traffic and its revenue was almost 40% higher than the second largest airport group in China: Shanghai Airport Group. In addition, the Group has solid fundamental growth. It has recorded a 2-year CAGR of 6.7% and 13.6% in passenger traffic and cargo volume.