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Analyzing, Modeling, and Simulating the Will to Fight of Military Units

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Analyzing, Modeling, and Simulating the Will to Fight of Military Units C O R P O R A T I O N WILL to FIGHT Analyzing, Modeling, and Simulating the Will to Fight of Military Units Ben Connable, Michael J. McNerney, William Marcellino, Aaron Frank, Henry Hargrove, Marek N. Posard, S. Rebecca Zimmerman, Natasha Lander, Jasen J. Castillo, James Sladden For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2341 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0044-4 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2018 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover design by Eileen Delson La Russo; photo by Dang Van Phuoc/AP Photo Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report documents research and analysis conducted as part of a project entitled Influencing Will to Fight, sponsored by the U.S. Army G-3/5/7. The purpose of the project was to explain will to fight at the unit level and to develop a model designed to support assessment of partner forces and analysis of adversary forces. The Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project that produced this document is HQD167560. This research was conducted within RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) sponsored by the United States Army. RAND operates under a “Federal-Wide Assurance” (FWA00003425) and com- plies with the Code of Federal Regulations for the Protection of Human Subjects Under United States Law (45 CFR 46), also known as “the Common Rule,” as well as with the implementation guidance set forth in DoD Instruction 3216.02. As applicable, this compliance includes reviews and approvals by RAND’s Institutional Review Board (the Human Subjects Protection Committee) and by the U.S. Army. The views of sources utilized in this study are solely their own and do not represent the official policy or position of DoD or the U.S. government. iii RR2341A_CC2015_00-fm_3P.indd 3 5/29/18 12:59 PM RR2341A_CC2015_00-fm_3P.indd 4 5/29/18 12:59 PM Contents Preface ................................................................................................. iii Figures .................................................................................................vii Tables .................................................................................................. ix Summary .............................................................................................. xi Abbreviations ....................................................................................... xxv Acknowledgments ................................................................................xxvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction and Historical Background: Will to Fight Matters ........................... 1 Objectives, Definitions, and Report Roadmap ..................................................... 5 Will to Fight Matters but Is Hard to Incorporate into Practice .................................. 8 Impact of American Will-to-Fight Assessment and Analysis Failures ..........................18 Research Purposes, Methodology, and Limitations .............................................. 24 CHAPTER TWO A Model of Will to Fight ...........................................................................33 Objectives and Parameters of the Model ...........................................................33 Modeling Will to Fight Using a System-of-Systems Approach ................................. 36 Individual-Level System-of-Systems Model of Will to Fight ....................................49 Unit-Level System-of-Systems Model of Will to Fight ...........................................63 CHAPTER THREE War Gaming and Simulating of Will to Fight ............................................... 113 Adding Combat Factors and Veterancy .......................................................... 115 Analysis of Existing War Games and Simulations .............................................. 125 Testing Will to Fight in Simulation: Does It Make a Difference?............................. 137 Summary of Gaming and Simulation Analysis and Experimentation ........................ 156 CHAPTER FOUR Concluding Thoughts and a Note About Ongoing Research .............................. 159 A Better, If Messier, Way ........................................................................... 161 Ongoing Research: Allied Will to Fight .......................................................... 163 v RR2341A_CC2015_00-fm_3P.indd 5 5/29/18 12:59 PM vi Will to Fight APPENDIXES A. Structured Literature Review Process and Findings .................................... 165 B. Coded Case Study Procedures and Results ................................................ 179 C. American Military Doctrine and the Will to Fight...................................... 187 D. Interview Questions and Representative Quotes ........................................ 203 E. Silver Model (CPM) Technical Details ..................................................... 207 Bibliography ........................................................................................ 221 RR2341A_CC2015_00-fm_3P.indd 6 5/29/18 12:59 PM Figures S.1 Varying Ground Combat Service Emphasis on Will to Fight in Doctrine .......xv S.2 Example of IWARS Squad-Level Simulation Adding Suppression ............... xvi S.3 Individual Will-to-Fight Model ....................................................... xix S.4 Will-to-Fight Model from Individual to State and Society: Systems Visualization ..............................................................................xx S.5 Will-to-Fight Model from Individual to State and Society: Wheel Visualization ............................................................................. xxi 1.1 The Battle of Verdun ....................................................................16 1.2 The Levels of War for Will-to-Fight Analysis ....................................... 26 1.3 Will to Fight as a Component of Holistic Combat Effectiveness ................. 28 2.1 Notional Example of Nodes and Links ...............................................39 2.2 Relative Durability Rating in the Node-and-Link Model ......................... 40 2.3 Relative Durability Rating in the Concentric Wheel Model ...................... 40 2.4 Individuals as Parts of Organizations and Units .................................... 50 2.5 Systems Model of Stand-Alone Soldier Will-to-Fight Factors ......................59 2.6 Soldier Quality as a Subsystem at the Stand-Alone Level of Will to Fight ...... 60 2.7 Identity as a Subsystem at the Stand-Alone Level of Will to Fight ................61 2.8 Competence as a Subsystem at the Stand-Alone Level of Will to Fight ..........62 2.9 Individual Soldier as a Will-to-Fight Subsystem .....................................63 2.10 Cohesion in a Unit .......................................................................67 2.11 Cohesion Added to the Unit Model .................................................. 68 2.12 Expectation Added to the Unit Model ................................................71 2.13 Leadership Added to the Unit Model .................................................73 2.14 Control Added to the Unit Model .................................................... 77 2.15 Esprit de Corps Added to the Unit Model ............................................79 2.16 Competence Added to the Unit Model ...............................................81 2.17 Unit System-of-Systems Diagram Showing Individual Factors ....................83 2.18 Control Added to the Organizational Model ........................................85 2.19 Esprit de Corps Added to the Organizational Model .............................. 87 2.20 Support Added to the Organizational Model ....................................... 87 2.21 Leadership Added to the Organizational Model .....................................89 2.22 Integrity Added to the Organizational Model .......................................91 2.23 Training Added to the Organizational Model ...................................... 92 vii viii Will to Fight 2.24 Organizational System-of-Systems Diagram Showing Individual Factors ....... 94 2.25 Civil-Military Relations Added to the State Will-to-Fight Model ................ 97 2.26 Integrity Added to the State Will-to-Fight Model .................................. 99 2.27 Support Added to the State Will-to-Fight Model .................................
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