Estimation Uncertainty of Direct Monetary Flood Damage to Buildings
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (2004) 4: 153–163 SRef-ID: 1684-9981/nhess/2004-4-153 Natural Hazards © European Geosciences Union 2004 and Earth System Sciences Estimation uncertainty of direct monetary flood damage to buildings B. Merz1, H. Kreibich1, A. Thieken1, and R. Schmidtke2 1GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Section Engineering Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany 2Bayerisches Landesamt fur¨ Wasserwirtschaft, Munich, Germany Received: 11 September 2003 – Revised: 12 September 2003 – Accepted: 13 September 2003 – Published: 9 March 2004 Part of Special Issue “Landslide and flood hazards assessment” Abstract. Traditional flood design methods are increasingly 1 Introduction supplemented or replaced by risk-oriented methods which are based on comprehensive risk analyses. Besides meteoro- Traditional flood design methods are increasingly supple- logical, hydrological and hydraulic investigations such anal- mented or replaced by risk-oriented methods which are based yses require the estimation of flood impacts. Flood impact on comprehensive risk analyses. In the context of risk- assessments mainly focus on direct economic losses using oriented design, flood risk encompasses the flood hazard (i.e. damage functions which relate property damage to damage- extreme events and associated probability) and the conse- causing factors. Although the flood damage of a build- quences of flooding. Flood risk analysis has to take into ac- ing is influenced by many factors, usually only inundation count all relevant flooding scenarios, their associated prob- depth and building use are considered as damage-causing abilities, their physical effects and should yield the full dis- factors. In this paper a data set of approximately 4000 dam- tribution function of the flood consequences. Besides me- age records is analysed.
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