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2015 elections: A change of guards?

September 2015 AUTHORS EDITOR

Wojciech Szacki Łukasz Lipiński Senior Analyst for Political Affairs Deputy Director, Polityka Insight

Joanna Sawicka Analyst for Political Affairs

Juliusz Skibicki Analyst for Political Affairs The premier source for political and economic analysis in .

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PI Briefing PI Analyses PI Publications A daily headstart for those who need Five analyses a day on leading issues Timely briefs on complex topics to be in the know. Our flagship product from the business and government of the day. Useful dossiers on delivers crucial news from business agenda. Economic forecasts, sectoral mid-term policy issues. In-depth and politics, a selective press digest, trends, political developments and reports on systemic questions promotions at ministries and policy chatter from Brussels. in politics, business and Europe. companies. INTRODUCTION What is at stake in the elections New parties aim to enter the parliament, while some old ones might not survive – the political scene sees a generational transition. It feels like, above all, a change in power may be on the cards.

A likely change in power. During the previous elections, ’s PO managed, as the only party in Poland after 1989, to win the elections as a ruling party and to remain in power. The party under will not be able to repeat that success. According to the polls, the most likely scenario involves PiS assuming power – either ruling alone or in coalition with Kukiz’s movement or PSL. ’s victory in the presidential ballot increases the chance for PiS to emerge successful, and will also act to strengthen the position of a possible government formed by that party. It is still unclear how the politics pursued by PiS would differ from that of the PO-PSL coalition, since the party’s programme is not finished. A change in power would most likely lead to a personnel reshuffle in govern- ment ministries and other administrative bodies.

PiS and PO aim to polarise. The two major parties would like the campaign and later and Łukasz Lipiński the decisions taken by the Poles during the election to be mainly focused on them. For PO, Deputy Director, the fall of smaller parties, especially the new ones – Paweł Kukiz’s movement and Ryszard Polityka Insight Petru’s Nowoczesna – opens the possibility of achieving a decent result in the election. Given a proper configuration of Sejm seats, the party could even remain in power. Jarosław Kaczyński, who vividly remembers his numerous problems with coalition partners when his party was in power, would like to score an independent majority in the Sejm. As a result, PiS and PO will be making every effort to turn the deep dispute between both parties into the backbone of the campaign – one that would draw the voters’ attention.

How far will the generational change move? The presidential election was a clear signal that Poles are fed up with politicians from the Roundtable era. One of Andrzej Duda’s major advantages included his relatively young age and, surprisingly, lack of serious involvement in politics. Duda was born in 1972 - so was, for instance, . Now, all parties base the visual side of their campaigns on young or new candidates: Beata Szydło has become the new “face” of PiS, although she had so far been on the party sidelines, and PO is promoting a large group of younger, technocratic-minded activists former backbenchers and, such as the Minister of Justice (born in 1978). It is still unclear, however, how much power will Jarosław Kaczyński share with the younger generation if PiS assumes power.

How will the new parties perform? Over the last eight years, Polish politics has been dominated by four major formations: PO and PiS, which competed for power, as well as their potential coalition partners: SLD and PSL. For a time it seemed to be the case that the rules for parties’ subsidies, based on the results of previous elections, led to the political scene being frozen for good. In 2011, during the previous elections, managed to enter the Sejm by unexpectedly winning 10 per cent of the vote, but his support quickly faded. Perturbations caused by the presidential race and the crisis in PO led to two new parties emerging this year: a radical and populistic Kukiz’s move- ment and ultra-liberal Nowoczesna, even though the overall feeling was that the time of populists and liberals is a thing of the past in Poland. It is still unclear, however, whether th ey would be able to exceed the electoral threshold. Back in June, the rockman’s movement was supported by as much as 25 per cent of Poles.

Will traditional parties survive? SLD and PSL have been present in the Sejm since the democratic breakthrough at the end of 1980s. The roots of both parties go back to the communist rule – SLD emerged from the ruling PZPR, PSL – from its satellite ZSL. During the last two and a half decades, both would assume power, have their own prime ministers and form coalition government. They are currently on the edge of electoral threshold: SLD as part of the Zjednoczona Lewica coalition needs 8 per cent, PSL – 5 per cent. If SLD fails to muster the necessary support, it would be the first Sejm in post-war Poland without , and, quite possibly, the end of post-communist formation on the political arena. On the other hand, although PSL is very much focused on representing the interests of its party members, it also stabilises the political scene – it formed coalitions both with the left, as well as the centre-right. It would be hard to create a Cabinet without their involvement.

3 SCHEDULE Time for lists until mid-September Until September 7, electoral committees can register their bids, later eight days will remain for lists’ composition. For the last two weeks of the campaign they have free broadcast time on TV and radio.

Joanna Sawicka Analyst for Political Affairs

July 17 - presidents calls the parliamentary by September 7 – registration of committees. elections. On Friday, Bronisław Komorowski anno- Candidates for the Sejm and Senate can be put forward unced that the elections to the Sejm and Senate by the parties’ election committees, voters’ election will be held on October 25. The decision will be committees and coalitions’ election committees. published in the Journal of Laws within five days Parties running as coalitions need to reach a higher, 8 of the announcement, marking the beginning of per cent electoral threshold, while the remaining parties the election campaign. Within 14 days, the National have to win 5 per cent of the vote to enter the parliament. Election Commission will announce the number of Additionally, 1,000 signatures are required to register a voters, based on which the exact limit of campaign voters’ election committee. Running under such a formula expenditure will be set - it is already known that does not allow to receive subsidies, paid to parties that score the total amount will reach almost PLN 31 mln. at least 3 per cent of the vote and coalitions which obtain 6 per cent. September – parties will present electoral programmes. The biggest parties are working on by September 15 – registration of lists . The deadline their postulates and have not yet put forward the for registering lists in the 41 Sejm electoral districts and dates of their programme conventions. PiS disc- candidates in the 100 Senate single member districts losed bits of its programme in early July, during the expires 40 days before the elections’ day. The number United Right’s convention in . PO, in turn, of candidates for a list cannot be smaller than the number is supposed to present its programme towards the of MPs to be elected from a given district, or greater than end of September - only lone postulates have been double that number. A 35-per-cent gender quota also needs making rounds in the media. to be maintained. Every list has to be supported by at least 5,000 signatures of a district’s residents. If a committee September 2-4 – the Senate will consider presi- registers lists in at least half of all the districts, it can auto- dent Duda’s referendum call. Andrzej Duda has matically register the rest in the remaining parts of the submitted a motion on a public vote concerning country without the necessary signatures. When putting the retirement age, the duty of school enrolment forward candidates for the Senate, 2,000 signatures need for the 6-year-olds and the privatisation of state to be collected in a given district. forests. On September 2, the Senate will consider the motion, which will be held down to a vote on since October 10 – free election advertisements . Paid September 4. The content of the parliament’s upper advertising spots are allowed to be aired from the moment chamber is necessary for the referendum to take information concerning creating a committee is filed. place. The decision, however, lies with Ewa Kopacz, All committees are also entitled to take advantage of free as PO holds a majority in the Senate.. advertising from 15 days before the elections onwards. The total air time for each committee is 30 hours on Polish September 6 – referendum on SMDs. On May Radio and 15 hours on TVP. Campaigns in the state media 11, a day after his defeat in the first round of presi- can be conducted by committees which have registered lists dential election, Bronisław Komorowski called a in at least half of all electoral districts. State television is referendum on the introduction of single member also obliged to organise debates between representatives districts for Sejm elections, abolishment of subsidies of the election committees. for parties from state budget and the interpretation of doubts in tax legislation in favour of taxpayers. 25 October – parliamentary elections. The campaign Following the Senate’s consent, Komorowski will finish on October 23 at midnight, when pre-election signed the resolution on holding the plebiscite. silence begins during which canvassing and publication The question concerning tax legislation’s interpre- of polls are banned. Poles will elect MPs and senators on tation became redundant, as the Sejm has already the last Sunday of October. The polling stations will be open passed a relevant bill. from 7 am to 9 pm. Parties that manage to cross the elec- toral threshold on a national level, will be allocated seats in the Sejm proportionally, by means of the d’Hondt method - based on support in each district. Seats in the Senate will be awarded to candidates with the greatest support in a district.

4 POLLS PiS in the lead, PSL and the Left on the line Polls show a clear advantage of PiS over PO, but they differ as to its size - that is the state of affairs 50 days before elections.

Joanna Sawicka Analyst for Political Affairs

AVERAGE POLL SUPPORT OF LEADING PARTIES IN 2015*

50% PiS 40.3%

PO 27.2% 40% Kukiz 13.6%

ZL/SLD 6.7% 30% PSL 4.4%

Nowoczesna 4.2% 20% KORWiN 2.3%

10%

single poll

0% trendline I II III IV V VI VII VIII

PiS a clear leader (average support of 40 per cent). Recently, The Left strives for the threshold (6 per cent). Zjednoczona Jarosław Kaczyński’s party fared worst in the CBOS and Millward Lewica (SLD, TR and Zieloni) obtained the best results in the survey Brown surveys (38 per cent in both), and the best result was by Millward Brown and IBRiS (nine per cent) and the worst – in achieved in the TNS Polska survey (48 per cent). The different the GfK’s survey (one per cent). The standing is slightly better than results make it difficult to predict the number of seats for PiS – it would be for SLD on its own, but it still does not guarantee entering could win from 190 to more than 240 seats. The source of the party’s the Sejm. If the coalition reaches the eight per cent electoral thre- success is Andrzej Duda’s victory in the presidential election, the shold, it may count on 44 seats at best. The joint start is an attempt crisis of Paweł Kukiz’s movement, and the weakness of PSL, as well to resolve the long-lasting crisis of the left. SLD and TR struggled to as lack internal conflicts and a successful strategy of placing Beata attract voters for a long time, and PO seems to be more attractive for Szydło in the limelight instead of Kaczyński. the leftist electorate - as well as PiS, which proposes social demands.

PO far behind (27 per cent). Ewa Kopacz’s party performed best PSL - once in, once out of the Sejm (4 per cent). According to in the July CBOS poll (31 per cent) and the worst in the TNS Polska IBRiS, PSL’s support reaches 7 per cent, which would give it 33 survey (26 per cent). Given those results, PO may count on between seats, but the GfK survey gives it only 2 per cent. Last year’s success 124 and 176 seats. PO held on to their advantage over PiS since the in the local election (24 per cent in the local assembly election) government change in September 2014. Bronisław Komorowski’s did not translate into an increase in its support. The presidential defeat in the presidential election marked a significant decline in its election proved to be a disaster for the party (less than 2 per cent). ratings. The government reshuffle and Ewa Kopacz’s activity helped Nonetheless, the biggest threat to PSL remains PiS, which takes to halt this trend, but some voters who had abandoned PO and over the rural electorate. Before the 2011 election, the party had had moved to support Paweł Kukiz, did not return to Kopacz’s party. similar ratings, but they scored over 8 per cent of the votes.

Kukiz - losing support (14 per cent). Most of the recent polls show NowoczesnaPL – another mystery (4 per cent). Support for its support at the level of 12-13 per cent, but the last IBRiS survey Ryszard Petru’s party ranges from one to seven per cent - in the gives Kukiz only seven per cent. In such a case he would bring 33 most favourable option, it would win 33 seats. Petru is building MPs to the Sejm, the other polls give him 62-68 seats. The musician project with moderate media interest, criticising both PO and PiS. failed to benefit from his result in the presidential election, when he The condition necessary for an increase in the Nowoczesna’s ratings won 20.8 per cent of the votes. His support is continually decreasing is a deepening crisis of PO, which is not happening for the moment. due to the lack of a programme, internal conflicts and chaos in his On the contrary - some polls indicate the increasing PO-PiS polari- power base. Kukiz seems unprepared to run for the Sejm. sation, which poses a threat to the smaller parties.

*Averages based on Monte Carlo method, with latest polls by CBOS, Millward Brown, GfK, IBRiS, TNS. Data for August 22.

5 PARTIES PiS heading for victory Recent polls are pointing to Jarosław Kaczyński’s party having a secured advantage over PO following the presidential ballot’s victory and being close to a triumph in the Sejm elections. PiS even has a chance to be able to form a one-party government.

Wojciech Szacki Senior Analyst for Political Affairs

STARTING POINT FACES OF THE CAMPAIGN PiS has been present on the political arena since 2001, but The Warsaw election list will be headed by was in power only once – in 2005-2007, when it marched Jarosław Kaczyński, but nationwide the under the slogans of “moral revolution” and “Poland in solida- main campaign engine is supposed to be rity”. Following two years of a stormy coalition with smaller Beata Szydło, who has widely toured the populist parties, it lost a snap election in 2007 and since then country over the summer vacation, building has been in opposition to the two PO-PSL governments. an image of the future prime minister. Jarosław Kaczynski’s party was weakened by the Smolensk crash, which killed the then president and party’s key leaders, The party’s nationwide electoral leader is, in and also by a series of internal fractures leading to a handful turn, Beata Szydło, who has been extensi- of politicians leaving its ranks. Fate of the party turned vely touring the country over the summer, around after European election in 2014 when Kaczyński building her image as future PM. She will run took over a number of smaller right-wing parties and later from Chrzanów, one of the smallest districts declined his presidential bid. Selection of a young, little-k- in the Małopolska region. nown MEP Andrzej Duda and his subsequent victory turned out to be a springboard for the entire party, which took a lead Other protagonists on the PiS lists include in the polls. At the moment, about 40 per cent of Poles declare deputy PM candidate Piotr Gliński, leader support for PiS. of the allied Polska Razem party Jarosław Gowin, who was earlier an influential WHAT ITS VICTORY WOULD MEAN member of PO and represents a more free- • PiS election programme will be completed in September, -market faction of the right, as well as head but its foundations are already known. PiS presents itself as of PiS structures Joachim Brudziński. an anti-establishment party, hence its calls for changing the constitution and the “state’s austerity”. Deputy leaders of the party have less media • PiS is a right-wing party with a socialist economic exposure: Mariusz Kamiński sentenced, programme. In the event of it assuming power, the state’s but appealing, for power abuse during his role in the economy would rise. PiS is skeptical towards term as head of Central Anti-Corruption privatisation, it supports the renationalization of the Polish Bureau, as well as , banking sector and new taxes. PiS promises to lower the linked with conspiracy theories regarding retirement age, increase tax-free amounts and support for the Smolensk crash. franc borrowers. • In the social area, PiS is traditionalist: it is on very good Head of the campaign is Senate Deputy terms with the Catholic Church, opposes IVF, gay marriages, Marshal Stanisław Karczewski, aided and supports stricter abortion laws. by Brudziński. Nonetheless, it is the latter • A shift in foreign policy course would be likely, or at least that exercises, beside Kaczyński, the most a change in rhetoric; PiS would try to build relationships with influence over election lists composition. countries in the region, underline alliance with US rather than A young PiS councilman Paweł Szefernaker is support for European integration. The party is against Poland responsible for the internet campaign. He was adopting the common currency. successful at the same position during Duda’s • Beata Szydło, the party’s candidate for prime minister, is presidential race. the main face of the campaign, who, similarly as Andrzej Duda before, symbolises a generational change in the party. The government would more likely consists of technocrats rather than PiS party leaders, but Jarosław Kaczyński would retain full control of the party.

6 PARTIES PO less and less likely to retain power PO is trying to hold on to power, but it has become clear that the party is falling behind PiS in the polls. It has not yet presented its programme and, instead, it has stressed it does not want to compete with Jarosław Kaczyński’s party on social promises.

Juliusz Skibicki Political Affairs Analyst

STARTING POINT FACES OF THE CAMPAIGN PO has been in power for eight years, and Ewa Kopacz, who Ewa Kopacz – the most popular PO politi- took over the Prime Minister’s post following Donald Tusk’s cian according to CBOS – is the key to the departure for Brussels, has now been at the party’s helm for party’s campaign. The prime minister is nearly a year. A change of Cabinet’s head and government often present in the media, announces the reshuffle strengthened PO, which enjoyed increased support most important decisions taken by PO and in polls, and, following May 2015, outperformed PiS. But the government, and stays open to disputes then, after Bronisław Komorowski’s defeat in the presidential with PiS and Andrzej Duda. Kopacz is going ballot, it was hit by a crisis. Some of the voters, who abandoned to head the Warsaw list, where she would PO in favour of Paweł Kukiz’s movement, have not come back be competing with Kaczyński. However, to support the incumbent party, but decided to cast their votes it would be extremely difficult for her to for PiS. As a result, Kopacz’s formation is now supported by an repeat Tusk’s excellent result from 2011 average of 26 per cent of those polled – by 14 points less than (375,000 votes). PiS. PO has also become weakened personally, as a number of politicians, who had previously produced top results in Sejm Marshal Małgorzata Kidawa- parliamentary campaigns, including Donald Tusk, Bogdan Błońska (running from the Greater Warsaw Zdrojewski or Radosław Sikorski, are not going to run in the district), will be another engine fuelling election to the Sejm. PO’s campaign. She has become one of Ewa Kopacz’s closest associates in recent WHAT ITS VICTORY WOULD MEAN months, supporting the PM in the campaign • If PO remained in power, the previous policy course would and travelling all over the country. still be continued. Ewa Kopacz would likely become prime minister again, while young technocrats and experts would The deputy MinFor Rafał Trzaskowski play a significant role in her inner circle. will take the top spot in Kraków – he is • In the new term, the PO government would continue widely seen as one of PO’s future leaders. working on the new tax ordinance, which had been The deputy PM and MinDef Tomasz announced in the prime minister’s exposé in October 2014. Siemoniak (Wałbrzych) is one of the stron- Key campaign promises would need to be introduced, such gest candidates on the electoral lists. This as lowering of the VAT, making civil-law contracts will be the first time he has run in the Sejm subject to ZUS contributions, and increasing deduct- elections. ible depreciation of employment contracts. There is also a possibility of introducing a minimal hourly wage. In real The list in Katowice will be headed by economy, the restructuring of the mining sector, which a renowned cardiac surgeon, MinHea has not yet been implemented, would prove the biggest chal- , who enjoys huge lenge. The government would possibly introduce reforms personal popularity and therefore stands a aimed at reducing disparities in access to healthcare. chance to score a good result in his munici- With regard to foreign policy, the relations with Germany pality. Other lists are mostly headed by less and France would remain of highest importance, as would popular politicians – the prime minister had support for Ukraine’s internal reforms. to step in and relegate many of the party’s • PO is going to present its programme in September. It is influential politicians that had previously currently being developed by ten expert groups, coordi- been proposed by PO regions. nated by, among others, (tax issues and economy), Rafał Trzaskowski (foreign affairs), Marian Marcin Kierwiński, Ewa Kopacz’s chief Zembala (health) and (defence). of staff, formerly associated with Grzegorz • PO is trying to erase the image of party detached from Schetyna’s faction, became head of the PO the people in the campaign. The prime minister has been campaign, with former MinSpor Joanna touring the country, meeting voters for several weeks Mucha serving as its spokesperson. Michał now. The PM travels are supported by a TV and billboard Kamiński plays a key role as Ewa Kopacz’s campaign, aimed at reinforcing the message that Ewa main advisor. He accompanies the prime Kopacz listens to the needs of the people. minister on all her visits.

7 PARTIES Four groupings fighting for seats Anything from three to six parties could enter the Sejm. Which groups, other than PO and PiS, will pass the electoral threshold?

Juliusz Skibicki Political Affairs Analyst Kukiz’15: downward spiral Zjednoczona Lewica: •Paweł Kukiz’s movement was esta- together means separately blished after his unexpected success in • The coalition composed of SLD, Twój the presidential election, in which he won Ruch, Polska Partia Socjalistyczna, Unia 20.8 per cent of the vote. According to a Pracy and was created in early poll conducted by IBRiS, published on August. Dozen or so groups participated June 8, Kukiz enjoyed the support of 27 in the negotiations, held upon OPZZ’s per cent – however, since then, his ratings initiative, but some of them, for example have tumbled. On August 17, an IBRiS’s poll SdPL and Polska Partia Pracy, formed a pointed to 7-per-cent support. The musician separate committee, called Zjednoczona has not presented a programme or candidates, and have fallen outs Lewica. Partia Razem as well as Grzegorz with his former associates. Kukiz is now surrounded by little-k- Napieralski’s and Andrzej Rozenek’s nown activists, unionists and the members of the far-right National Biało-Czerwoni did not take part in the Movement (RN). unification. The coalition has to exceed • Kukiz’s main proposal is the introduction of single member an 8-per-cent threshold to enter the Sejm. districts (SMDs) in the election to the Sejm. Also, the musician Lewica is on the verge of that benchmark. wants to strengthen the executive power. Kukiz criticises the • In its agreed programme, Zjednoczona political class, bankers, and calls for re-nationalisation of the media Lewica calls for stopping the privatisation and taxation of large supermarkets. Kukiz’s economic views are in process of hospitals and education system. line with those of the Adam Smith Centre. Kukiz does not have a Also, it is demanding increasing the minimum wage and introducing programme – instead, he talks about a problem-solving strategy. a minimum hourly wage. It also wants a social bonus to be paid out • The musician cannot boast of any known figures on his lists - – the Poles would receive a payment amounting to one third of the everyone who passes a verification process can run. The rockman state’s GDP. wants to reward chiefly those engaged in a referendum campaign, • The coalition’s locomotives are leaders of SLD and Twój Ruch: in which the movement supports SMDs. The best-known are his in Gdynia, Krzysztof Gawkowski in Bydgoszcz, former rivals in the presidential race – Marian Kowalski from the Włodzimierz Czarzasty in Płock, Janusz Palikot in , National Movement (RN) and from Nowa Prawica. in Warsaw and Kazimiera Szczuka in Kraków.

Nowoczesna: could grow on weak PO PSL: will it succeed again • The association was founded after the • After last year’s success in the local gover- presidential election. It is Ryszard Petru’s nment elections, when PSL received 23.7 initiative – he is a well-known economist per cent of the vote, the party hoped for a and ’s disciple. Petru is good result in the parliamentary ballot. In willing to take over PO’s electorate that is February, PSL’s average support stood at 9 unhappy with the party’s recent actions. per cent. However, currently it stood at 4 per Support for Nowoczesna is around the elec- cent. According to a CBOS poll from June, toral threshold. the support even fell to 1 per cent which • Nowoczesna’s demands are similar to was the worst result since 2006. Also, PSL PO’s first programme – deregulation, priva- was hit by ’s weak result in the presidential election tisation of state companies, abolition of (1.6 per cent) and voters’ fatigue with the PO-PSL’s coalition. party funding from the budget, and introduction the maximum of • 1989, PSL has never failed to enter the Sejm. It plans to change its two terms for MPs. Petru avoids commenting on ideological issues. electoral strategy – PSL fights for the support of young people from He wants to see a generational change in the political system. larger cities. That is why the party runs a major internet campaign. • Nowoczesna’s list does not include well-known faces – the first • PSL’s lists include more young politicians. Key members as positions are held mainly by businessmen and local government (runs for Senate), Stanisław Żelichowski and activists. The association’s leader will run as number one in Warsaw, Stanislaw Kalemba will not submit their Sejm bids. The list in and former deputy voivode of Małopolska, Jerzy Meysztowicz opens the Greater Warsaw district will be led by Janusz Piechociński, the list in Kraków. The leader in Białystok is Krzysztof Truskolaski, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz will head the list in Tarnów, son of the city’s mayor. Wadim Tyszkiewicz, mayor of Nowa Sól and and former police chief Marek Działoszyński - in Łódź. Also, Nowoczesna’ s recognisable face, will not run. women will occupy top spots – head of the campaign Andżelika Możdżanowska, Urszula Pasławska and Ilona Antoniszyn-Klik.

8 COALITIONS A PiS government almost certain August polls show a hike in PiS ratings and a drop in Paweł Kukiz’s support. PO retaining power seems nearly impossible.

Juliusz Skibicki Political Affairs Analyst

In August, Jarosław Kaczyński’s party gained another 3 points in polls and now its support stands on average at 40.3 per cent. PO’s ratings have not changed - it can count on 27.2 per cent of the votes. The party to lose the most in polls was Paweł Kukiz’s movement, which dropped by almost 4 points and now has 13.6 per cent of backing. By contrast, the left’s ratings have improved - ZL has 6.7 per cent, almost 3 points more than SLD’s average support in July. The result will not, however, ensure seats in parliament for the alliance. The other parties also remain below the electoral threshold: PSL is at 4.4 per cent, while NowoczesnaPL has 4.2 per cent support. Our calculations suggest the following division of seats: PiS -229, PO - 154, Kukiz - 77*.

Option I: minority PiS government Option III: PiS-PSL coalition

PiS: 229 seats PiS+PSL: 252 seats 2 seats lacking 21 seats to majority majority

231 seats 231 seats

According to August’s polls, PSL falls short of 0.5 percentage points If the elections took place in August, Kaczyński’s party would only to cross the electoral threshold; moreover, parliamentary polls also need two more seats to gain a majority in the Sejm. Given such a tend to underestimate the party’s support. It is, therefore, possible result, PiS would probably decide to govern independently. It would that PSL will enter the Sejm this time as well. Janusz Piechociński’s be supported in voting on significant laws by individual MPs from party would be more stable a coalition partner for PiS than Kukiz’s Paweł Kukiz’s movement and the German Minority, which usually movement. Such cooperation would, however, involve breaking off backs the government. It is possible that PiS could attract indi- most of PSL’s regional assembly coalitions with PO. Additionally, vidual MPs to its caucus and thus ensure a government with a stable an alliance with PiS carries a considerable risk for PSL - because majority. their electorates tend to overlap, PiS could swallow it up as its junior party, as it has done with LPR and Samoobrona in the past. Option II: PiS-Kukiz coalition Option IV: PO without majority

PiS+Kukiz: 306 seats PO+ZL+PSL+Nowoczesna: 209 seats 75 seats 22 seats lacking majority to majority 231 seats 231 seats

Such a coalition would be likely if PiS ratings fell slightly in the Likelihood of PO government fading. According to recent polls, PO run up to the election or stayed at a similar level, and a fourth has no chance of keeping power even in a scenario most favourable to party entered the Sejm with at least 25 seats - in both situations, it - assuming that its potential coalition partners - PSL, Zjednoczona PiS would need to find a coalition partner, and Kukiz’s movement Lewica and Nowoczesna - all gain Sejm seats. According to our simu- would be the most likely option. At the same time, nothing points lations, if PO maintains its level of support at 27 per cent, PSL and to the fact that the musician will be able to build a stable grouping, Nowoczesna win 5 per cent of the vote each and the left gets 8 per cent, capable of forming a coalition. This is why it seems more likely that in total it could only count on just over 200 seats. If six parties got some Kukiz MPs will form a pro-government caucus in the Sejm, into parliament, PiS would have no choice but to form a coalition with supporting the PiS government. Kukiz - it would be unable to get a majority with PSL.

*As for August 22

9 ELECTION SYSTEM How Poles choose their MPs and Senators

Small districts (7–9 seats ) Mid-size districts (10–14 seats) Constituencies: Large districts (15–20 seats) we select the MPs in 41 of them District 9: Łódź

The Sejm has 460 MPs who are chosen in 41 election districts. Depending on the Brzeziny number of registered residents, each one Łódź Koluszki accounts for between seven and 20 seats. Częstochowa is the smallest, Warsaw the largest one. Tuszyn Łódź districdist t, 2011 election 67670,000 voters ▸ 10 seats

Putting together the list: parties Lists from the Łódź district, 2011 election suggest, leaders decide PO electoral SLD electoral PiS electoral committee committee committee

The parties put together lists for each 1. 1. Dariusz Joński 1. Witold district in which they compete. The number Waszczykowski 2. Iwona Śledzińska 2. Sylwester Pawłowski of candidates must at least equal that of MPs -Katarasińska 2. Dariusz Barski from a given district, but cannot exceed 3. Małgorzata 3. Niewiadomska-Cudak 3. Jerzy Loba double this number. The heads of each committee decide on the order of the names 20. Jarosław Stolarczyk 20. Piotr Bors 20. Jan Tomaszewski on the lists. Usually the party head makes the final decision on list and their order.

Voting: one vote, one candidate

Each voter has one vote, which he uses to select one candidate from one of the party lists. The number of votes for each candi- date within the list decides on the order of seats received.

Counting votes: seats for parties that cross the Nationwide results, 2011 elections threshold nationwide.

Only the party and voters’ committee 1.1 mln votes with at least 5 per cent of the votes and (threshold for a coalition) coalitions with 8 per cent of the votes 8% nationwide receive seats. This rule does 5% 720,000 votes not apply to national minorities, which (threshold for is why representatives of the German Ruch a party) minority, strong in the Opole region, PO PiS Palikota PSL SLD PJN 39% 30% 10% 8% 8% 2% enter the Sejm.

10 Results in the Łódź district, 2011 election Division of seats: Ruch who wins in a district PO PiS Palikota SLD PSL 171,750 90,558 39,204 35,069 9,750 votes votes votes votes votes The seats are divided based on the number The party’s of votes won by a committee in a given result 1 2 7 8 divided by: 1 171,750 90,558 39,204 35,069 9,750 district. To divide the seats, the d’Hondt method is used – the number of valid votes The party’s result 3 5 for each committee is divided by the next divided by: 2 85,875 45,279 19,602 17,535 4,875 natural numbers and the seats are divided The party’s result based on the highest quotients. If in a given divided by: 3 57,250 4 30,186 10 13,068 11,690 3,250 district there are 10 Sejm seats to be distrib- The party’s uted, 10 highest quotients are chosen and result 6 divided by: 4 42,938 22,640 9,8018,767 2,438 the parties that reach them receive seats. Within a list of a given party, candidates The party’s result 9 with the highest number of votes win the divided by: 5 34,350 18,112 7,8417,014 1,950

Sejm seats. The party’s result divided by: 6 28,625 15,093 6,5345,845 1,625 5 3 1 1 0 seats seats seats seats seats

New Sejm: parties Sejm composition, 2011 election count seats 207 seats The total number of seats won in the PO 157 seats districts decides about the strength represented by a given party or coalition in the new Sejm. 28 seats PSL PiS 40 seats Ruch Palikota 460 seats 1 27 seats SLD MN seat Sejm composition, 2011 election

Senate: 100 senators in 100 single member districts

1

Poland is divided into Each committee selects one The voters vote for The one who receives the 100 Senate district candidate in each district one candidate most votes in a district becomes a senator

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A quick PanswerUNKTY KLUCZ toOWE your question in PI’s proven one-page format – coherent and to Wymiana gotówki w obiegu - 190 mln euro. Nie ma dokładnych wyliczeń, ile kosztowałoby wycofanie złotówek i zastąpienie ich banknotami oraz To learn more about monetami euro. Łotewski Bank Centralny oszacował te koszty na 12 mln łatów - czyli 17 mln euro. W Polsce w obiegu jest 11 razy więcej gotówki the point.niż na ŁWeotwie, d lateoffergo też wydatki bpersonalyłyby znacznie większ e - oprofiles,koło 190 mln euro. Jednoc zscenarios,eśnie, im dłuższy będzie ok res asprzejści owwelly, kiedy obieas legislative, sectoral and waluty będą w obiegu, tym wyższe koszty poniesie sektor bankowy. Wedle szacunków NBP z 2009 r. przy dwutygodniowym okresie przejściowym PI Research please contact politicalkosz analyses.ty te wyniosłyby 0,14 proc . APKB typical i 0,26 proc. przy ok rorderesie półrocznym. is processed in five working days. our sales department: Wpłata do EBC - 5,5 mld euro. Polska musiałaby wpłacić 555 mln euro na kapitał własny Europejskiego Banku Centralnego - udział Polski, wy- liczony na podstawie liczby ludności i wielkości PKB, wynosi 4,86 proc. (20 mln euro już zostało wpłacone z tytułu członkostwa w Unii). Z chwilą wstąpienia do strefy euro NBP przekazałaby też EBC część rezerw walutowych - wedle odpowiedzi MinFin na interpelację poselską z lutego 2013 r. do F - nalną do posiadanych udziałów w kapitale. Anna Puchacz Wpłata do ESM - 5,2 mld euro. Wchodząc do unii walutowej, Polska musiałaby zostać udziałowcem funduszu ratunkowego strefy euro - Europej- - Director of Sales tylko 5,2 mld euro (reszta kwoty byłaby wymagalna na żądanie funduszu). Gdyby Polska należała do unii walutowej przed kryzysem, na pierwszy pakiet ratunkowy dla Grecji musiałaby przekazać około 5,5 mld euro. Wpłata na SRF - ponad 1 mld euro. Wchodząc do strefy euro, Polska będzie musiała przystąpić do unii bankHigh-levelowej. Wspólny nadzór powstaje +48 602 42 00 14 idzie, dodatkowych wpłat stolic. Realne zobowiązania przyniesie wspólny mechanizm restrukturyzacji banków, ale dopiero w 2026 r. Krajowe [email protected] fundusze restrukturyzacyjne zostaną wówczas połączone w jeden fundusz unijny (SRF). Bankowy Fundusz Gwarancyjny będzie musiał przekazać do SRF równowartość 1 proc. wartości depozytów gwarantowanych w Polsce - dzisiaj byłoby to około 1,2 mldroundtables euro. Niższe wpływy NBP. Po wejściu do strefy euro w Polsce obowiązywać będą stopy procentowe EBC - dziś są one niższe o 2,25 pkt proc. niż stopy NBP. Redukcja stóp spowoduje niższe wpływy z pożyczek udzielanych bankom przez NBP, ale w ślad za stopami spadnie też rentowność polskich obligacji, co przyniesie oszczędności dla skarbu państwa. Obecnie rentowność 10-letnich obligacji Niemiec wynosi 1,9 proc., a polskich - 4,4 proc. Jeśli Polska wejdzie do unii walutowej, rentowność polskich obligacji spadłaby do poziomu około 2,2 proc. On client’s request we organise closed expert sessions on specific policy and Dagmara Bochyńska business topics. Our roundtable format Sales Manager

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