DOSSIER Foto: Piotr Tumidajski/FORUM Piotr Foto: 2015 elections: A change of guards? September 2015 AUTHORS EDITOR Wojciech Szacki Łukasz Lipiński Senior Analyst for Political Affairs Deputy Director, Polityka Insight Joanna Sawicka Analyst for Political Affairs Juliusz Skibicki Analyst for Political Affairs The premier source for political and economic analysis in Poland. Polityka Insight is read by ministers, CEOs and ambassadors in Warsaw, who use our service as a reliable source REGISTER FOR FREE TRIAL ACCESS: www.politykainsight.pl/en PI Briefing PI Analyses PI Publications A daily headstart for those who need Five analyses a day on leading issues Timely briefs on complex topics to be in the know. Our flagship product from the business and government of the day. Useful dossiers on delivers crucial news from business agenda. Economic forecasts, sectoral mid-term policy issues. In-depth and politics, a selective press digest, trends, political developments and reports on systemic questions promotions at ministries and policy chatter from Brussels. in politics, business and Europe. companies. INTRODUCTION What is at stake in the elections New parties aim to enter the parliament, while some old ones might not survive – the political scene sees a generational transition. It feels like, above all, a change in power may be on the cards. A likely change in power. During the previous Sejm elections, Donald Tusk’s PO managed, as the only party in Poland after 1989, to win the elections as a ruling party and to remain in power. The party under Ewa Kopacz will not be able to repeat that success. According to the polls, the most likely scenario involves PiS assuming power – either ruling alone or in coalition with Kukiz’s movement or PSL. Andrzej Duda’s victory in the presidential ballot increases the chance for PiS to emerge successful, and will also act to strengthen the position of a possible government formed by that party. It is still unclear how the politics pursued by PiS would differ from that of the PO-PSL coalition, since the party’s programme is not finished. A change in power would most likely lead to a personnel reshuffle in govern- ment ministries and other administrative bodies. PiS and PO aim to polarise. The two major parties would like the campaign and later and Łukasz Lipiński the decisions taken by the Poles during the election to be mainly focused on them. For PO, Deputy Director, the fall of smaller parties, especially the new ones – Paweł Kukiz’s movement and Ryszard Polityka Insight Petru’s Nowoczesna – opens the possibility of achieving a decent result in the election. Given a proper configuration of Sejm seats, the party could even remain in power. Jarosław Kaczyński, who vividly remembers his numerous problems with coalition partners when his party was in power, would like to score an independent majority in the Sejm. As a result, PiS and PO will be making every effort to turn the deep dispute between both parties into the backbone of the campaign – one that would draw the voters’ attention. How far will the generational change move? The presidential election was a clear signal that Poles are fed up with politicians from the Roundtable era. One of Andrzej Duda’s major advantages included his relatively young age and, surprisingly, lack of serious involvement in politics. Duda was born in 1972 - so was, for instance, Ryszard Petru. Now, all parties base the visual side of their campaigns on young or new candidates: Beata Szydło has become the new “face” of PiS, although she had so far been on the party sidelines, and PO is promoting a large group of younger, technocratic-minded activists former backbenchers and, such as the Minister of Justice Borys Budka (born in 1978). It is still unclear, however, how much power will Jarosław Kaczyński share with the younger generation if PiS assumes power. How will the new parties perform? Over the last eight years, Polish politics has been dominated by four major formations: PO and PiS, which competed for power, as well as their potential coalition partners: SLD and PSL. For a time it seemed to be the case that the rules for parties’ subsidies, based on the results of previous elections, led to the political scene being frozen for good. In 2011, during the previous elections, Janusz Palikot managed to enter the Sejm by unexpectedly winning 10 per cent of the vote, but his support quickly faded. Perturbations caused by the presidential race and the crisis in PO led to two new parties emerging this year: a radical and populistic Kukiz’s move- ment and ultra-liberal Nowoczesna, even though the overall feeling was that the time of populists and liberals is a thing of the past in Poland. It is still unclear, however, whether th ey would be able to exceed the electoral threshold. Back in June, the rockman’s movement was supported by as much as 25 per cent of Poles. Will traditional parties survive? SLD and PSL have been present in the Sejm since the democratic breakthrough at the end of 1980s. The roots of both parties go back to the communist rule – SLD emerged from the ruling PZPR, PSL – from its satellite ZSL. During the last two and a half decades, both would assume power, have their own prime ministers and form coalition government. They are currently on the edge of electoral threshold: SLD as part of the Zjednoczona Lewica coalition needs 8 per cent, PSL – 5 per cent. If SLD fails to muster the necessary support, it would be the first Sejm in post-war Poland without the Left, and, quite possibly, the end of post-communist formation on the political arena. On the other hand, although PSL is very much focused on representing the interests of its party members, it also stabilises the political scene – it formed coalitions both with the left, as well as the centre-right. It would be hard to create a Cabinet without their involvement. 3 SCHEDULE Time for lists until mid-September Until September 7, electoral committees can register their bids, later eight days will remain for lists’ composition. For the last two weeks of the campaign they have free broadcast time on TV and radio. Joanna Sawicka Analyst for Political Affairs July 17 - presidents calls the parliamentary by September 7 – registration of committees. elections. On Friday, Bronisław Komorowski anno- Candidates for the Sejm and Senate can be put forward unced that the elections to the Sejm and Senate by the parties’ election committees, voters’ election will be held on October 25. The decision will be committees and coalitions’ election committees. published in the Journal of Laws within five days Parties running as coalitions need to reach a higher, 8 of the announcement, marking the beginning of per cent electoral threshold, while the remaining parties the election campaign. Within 14 days, the National have to win 5 per cent of the vote to enter the parliament. Election Commission will announce the number of Additionally, 1,000 signatures are required to register a voters, based on which the exact limit of campaign voters’ election committee. Running under such a formula expenditure will be set - it is already known that does not allow to receive subsidies, paid to parties that score the total amount will reach almost PLN 31 mln. at least 3 per cent of the vote and coalitions which obtain 6 per cent. September – parties will present electoral programmes. The biggest parties are working on by September 15 – registration of lists . The deadline their postulates and have not yet put forward the for registering lists in the 41 Sejm electoral districts and dates of their programme conventions. PiS disc- candidates in the 100 Senate single member districts losed bits of its programme in early July, during the expires 40 days before the elections’ day. The number United Right’s convention in Katowice. PO, in turn, of candidates for a list cannot be smaller than the number is supposed to present its programme towards the of MPs to be elected from a given district, or greater than end of September - only lone postulates have been double that number. A 35-per-cent gender quota also needs making rounds in the media. to be maintained. Every list has to be supported by at least 5,000 signatures of a district’s residents. If a committee September 2-4 – the Senate will consider presi- registers lists in at least half of all the districts, it can auto- dent Duda’s referendum call. Andrzej Duda has matically register the rest in the remaining parts of the submitted a motion on a public vote concerning country without the necessary signatures. When putting the retirement age, the duty of school enrolment forward candidates for the Senate, 2,000 signatures need for the 6-year-olds and the privatisation of state to be collected in a given district. forests. On September 2, the Senate will consider the motion, which will be held down to a vote on since October 10 – free election advertisements . Paid September 4. The content of the parliament’s upper advertising spots are allowed to be aired from the moment chamber is necessary for the referendum to take information concerning creating a committee is filed. place. The decision, however, lies with Ewa Kopacz, All committees are also entitled to take advantage of free as PO holds a majority in the Senate.. advertising from 15 days before the elections onwards. The total air time for each committee is 30 hours on Polish September 6 – referendum on SMDs. On May Radio and 15 hours on TVP. Campaigns in the state media 11, a day after his defeat in the first round of presi- can be conducted by committees which have registered lists dential election, Bronisław Komorowski called a in at least half of all electoral districts.