Accidents Will Happen

ACCIDENTS WILL HAPPEN A review of military drone crash data as the UK considers allowing large military drone flights in its airspace Note: The term ‘drone’ is used interchangeably with ‘Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)’ Drone Wars UK is a small British NGO established in 2010 to undertake research and advocacy around the use of armed drones. We believe that the growing use of remotely-controlled, armed unmanned systems is encouraging and enabling a lowering of the threshold for the use of lethal force as well as eroding well established human rights norms. While some argue that the technology itself is neutral, we believe that drones are a danger to global peace and security. We have seen over the past decade that once these systems are in the armoury, the temptation to use them becomes great, even beyond the constraints of international law. As more countries develop or acquire this technology, the danger to global peace and security grows. Published by Drone Wars UK Drone Wars UK Written by Chris Cole Peace House, 19 Paradise Street June 2019 Oxford, OX1 1LD Designed: Chris Woodward www.dronewars.net www.chriswoodwarddesign.co.uk [email protected] Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 3 Contents Executive Summary 5 1 Introduction 7 2 Drone Crash Data 9 2.1 An overview of the data 3 Analysis by operators 13 3.1 The United States 3.1.1 US official crash statistics 3.1.2 Where US drones have crashed 3.2 Europe 3.2.1 The UK 3.2.2 Other European countries 3.3 Other countries 4 Examining the causes of drone crashes 23 4.1 Mechanical failure 4.2 Electrical failure 4.3 Engine failure 4.4 Pilot error 4.5 Lost link 4.6 Other causes 5 Comment: Opening of UK airspace to large military drones 33 5.1 Recommendations Drone Crash Dataset 2008–2019 37 4 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 5 Executive summary • The Ministry of Defence (MoD) is procuring up to twenty-six of the newest version of the Predator Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) from US manufacturer General Atomics. While the company calls the new armed drone ‘SkyGuardian’, the UK has decided to name it ‘Protector’. The MoD intends this NATO Class III UAV to be in service from around 2023 and wants it to be able to fly within UK airspace. • While there has been a great deal of public and parliamentary debate about the increasing use of small drones and their impact on public safety and security – particularly after the incursions at Gatwick and Heathrow airport – there has been so far little public or political discussion about the implication of opening up UK airspace to large military drones. • Drone Wars UK has compiled a dataset of more than 250 crashes of large (NATO Class II and III) military drones that have occurred over the past decade (2009-2018). The information has been drawn from official investigation reports, freedom of information requests and press reports. Due to the secrecy surrounding the use of these systems, it is highly likely that other crashes have occurred that are not contained in the data. • The majority of crashes in the dataset are of US drones, reflecting the dominance of the US in using these systems. Out of the 254 accidents in the database, 178 (70%) were being operated by various branches of the United States military (with an additional two being operated by US civil security organisations). The vast majority of these were drones manufactured by General Atomics. Drones operated by nineteen countries appear in the crash dataset. After the US, the UK appears most frequently with 14 crashes. • 64% of the crashes took place while the drone was in mid-flight, while 20% occurred at the point of landing. 8% crashed during the take-off phase, with a small number of crashes (1%) taking place while the drone was taxiing along the runway. For 7% of the recorded accidents, it is unknown at what stage the crash occurred. The causes of approximately half of the crashes in the dataset are given and include mechanical failure, communications problems (‘lost link’), engine failure, weather problems and pilot error. While non-state groups regularly claim responsibility for crashed drones, we attribute between five and nine of the crashes in the dataset to being shot down. • While some are keen to see the use of UAVs normalised, the number of crashes indicates that the development of this technology still has a very long way to go. Flying large aircraft remotely is extremely complicated and recent official investigations into the crashes of British Watchkeeper drones found that the complexity of the systems themselves was a factor in the crashes. • To aid further discussion on this issue, Drone Wars is making a number of recommendations including calling for an open, public review of the need to use Protector in the UK for training purposes; that the independent Civil Aviation Authority rather than the Military Aviation Authority have responsibility for granting Protector permission to fly in UK airspace; and for the civil liberties and human rights implications of the use of Protector drones for surveillance purposes within the UK be investigated by MPs. 6 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 7 Introduction In July 2018, US drone manufacturer General Atomics remotely flew one of its SkyGuardian unmanned aerial vehicles from North Dakota across the Atlantic and into a US air base in the Gloucestershire countryside. The drone was put on static display during the Fairford air show that weekend and then boxed up for its return journey to the US in a cargo plane. The point of the innovative flight was not, it seems, its appearance at the air display, but rather its appearance in UK airspace. SkyGuardian is the US company’s name for latest version of its armed Predator drone, which the Ministry of Defence (MoD) is choosing to call ‘Protector’. Up to twenty-six of the drones are being procured by the UK to replace its current fleet of Reaper drones from around 2023. A key feature of the new drone is that unlike its predecessors, it is being built to standards (from a construction point of view) that will allow it to be certified to fly in UK airspace. However, that does not mean that regulators will automatically grant it permission to do so. The July 2018 SkyGuardian flight into the UK required the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) to put Despite the notion gaining ground that ‘the future is drone’, airspace regulators across the globe continue to have serious concerns about opening up skies to remotely- controlled systems due to safety issues A Heron-1 operated by the Indian Air Force crashed soon after take-off in a residential area on Dec 13, 2013. “We were inside the house, when we heard an explosion like noise. We rushed out and saw the aircraft,” a resident told The Hindu. Credit: The Hindu 8 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen in place extensive measures to ensure that no other aircraft were in the vicinity of the drone’s flight path. Despite the notion gaining ground that ‘the future is drone’, airspace regulators across the globe continue to have serious concerns about opening up skies to remotely-controlled systems due to safety issues. In some sectors where remotely controlled and autonomous technology is being developed – such as self-driving cars in the automotive industry – the civil sector is leading the way. However, in the aviation sector, where remote-control and autonomy is seen as hugely important for the future transport of goods and passengers, civil industry has taken a step back and is encouraging the military to take the lead. The MoD’s plans to fly Protector drones within the UK is being seen as an important test case and is being watched carefully throughout Europe and beyond. Over the next 18-24 months politicians, regulators and industry will deliberate on allowing Protector to fly within the UK as part of a wider question of opening up UK air space to large military and civil drones. While the debate on small drones being flown within line of sight (LOS) and their impact on security has begun – particularly in the wake of the closure of Gatwick airport in December 2018 – discussions on flying large UAVs beyond-line-of-sight (BLOS) is largely taking place behind closed doors. This short briefing shines a light on the number of large military drone (NATO Category II and III) crashes that have taken place over the past decade. Drone Wars UK has long been involved in researching the use of these systems, including tracking accidents, primarily to examine their proliferation but also to aid consideration of safety issues. We have compiled details of more than 250 such crashes that have occurred in the past decade and the dataset is being published in this briefing in order to aid discussion and encourage debate. As well as some initial analysis on the data we also make a small number of recommendations to aid discussion. Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 9 Drone Crash Data Drone Wars UK’s drone crash dataset contains details of just over 250 large military drone accidents that have occurred over the past decade. The full list appears as an appendix to this report and is also available online at www.dronewars.net/dronecrash2009-2018. While there continues to be disagreement within the military and beyond about the classification of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), most adhere to the NATO system which divides them into three broad categories based on weight.

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