ACCIDENTS WILL HAPPEN
A review of military drone crash data as the UK considers allowing large military drone flights in its airspace Note: The term ‘drone’ is used interchangeably with ‘Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)’
Drone Wars UK is a small British NGO established in 2010 to undertake research and advocacy around the use of armed drones. We believe that the growing use of remotely-controlled, armed unmanned systems is encouraging and enabling a lowering of the threshold for the use of lethal force as well as eroding well established human rights norms. While some argue that the technology itself is neutral, we believe that drones are a danger to global peace and security. We have seen over the past decade that once these systems are in the armoury, the temptation to use them becomes great, even beyond the constraints of international law. As more countries develop or acquire this technology, the danger to global peace and security grows.
Published by Drone Wars UK Drone Wars UK Written by Chris Cole Peace House, 19 Paradise Street June 2019 Oxford, OX1 1LD Designed: Chris Woodward www.dronewars.net www.chriswoodwarddesign.co.uk [email protected] Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 3
Contents
Executive Summary 5
1 Introduction 7
2 Drone Crash Data 9 2.1 An overview of the data
3 Analysis by operators 13 3.1 The United States 3.1.1 US official crash statistics 3.1.2 Where US drones have crashed 3.2 Europe 3.2.1 The UK 3.2.2 Other European countries 3.3 Other countries
4 Examining the causes of drone crashes 23 4.1 Mechanical failure 4.2 Electrical failure 4.3 Engine failure 4.4 Pilot error 4.5 Lost link 4.6 Other causes
5 Comment: Opening of UK airspace to large military drones 33 5.1 Recommendations
Drone Crash Dataset 2008–2019 37 4 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 5 Executive summary
• The Ministry of Defence (MoD) is procuring up to twenty-six of the newest version of the Predator Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) from US manufacturer General Atomics. While the company calls the new armed drone ‘SkyGuardian’, the UK has decided to name it ‘Protector’. The MoD intends this NATO Class III UAV to be in service from around 2023 and wants it to be able to fly within UK airspace. • While there has been a great deal of public and parliamentary debate about the increasing use of small drones and their impact on public safety and security – particularly after the incursions at Gatwick and Heathrow airport – there has been so far little public or political discussion about the implication of opening up UK airspace to large military drones. • Drone Wars UK has compiled a dataset of more than 250 crashes of large (NATO Class II and III) military drones that have occurred over the past decade (2009-2018). The information has been drawn from official investigation reports, freedom of information requests and press reports. Due to the secrecy surrounding the use of these systems, it is highly likely that other crashes have occurred that are not contained in the data. • The majority of crashes in the dataset are of US drones, reflecting the dominance of the US in using these systems. Out of the 254 accidents in the database, 178 (70%) were being operated by various branches of the United States military (with an additional two being operated by US civil security organisations). The vast majority of these were drones manufactured by General Atomics. Drones operated by nineteen countries appear in the crash dataset. After the US, the UK appears most frequently with 14 crashes. • 64% of the crashes took place while the drone was in mid-flight, while 20% occurred at the point of landing. 8% crashed during the take-off phase, with a small number of crashes (1%) taking place while the drone was taxiing along the runway. For 7% of the recorded accidents, it is unknown at what stage the crash occurred. The causes of approximately half of the crashes in the dataset are given and include mechanical failure, communications problems (‘lost link’), engine failure, weather problems and pilot error. While non-state groups regularly claim responsibility for crashed drones, we attribute between five and nine of the crashes in the dataset to being shot down. • While some are keen to see the use of UAVs normalised, the number of crashes indicates that the development of this technology still has a very long way to go. Flying large aircraft remotely is extremely complicated and recent official investigations into the crashes of British Watchkeeper drones found that the complexity of the systems themselves was a factor in the crashes. • To aid further discussion on this issue, Drone Wars is making a number of recommendations including calling for an open, public review of the need to use Protector in the UK for training purposes; that the independent Civil Aviation Authority rather than the Military Aviation Authority have responsibility for granting Protector permission to fly in UK airspace; and for the civil liberties and human rights implications of the use of Protector drones for surveillance purposes within the UK be investigated by MPs. 6 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 7
Introduction
In July 2018, US drone manufacturer General Atomics remotely flew one of its SkyGuardian unmanned aerial vehicles from North Dakota across the Atlantic and into a US air base in the Gloucestershire countryside. The drone was put on static display during the Fairford air show that weekend and then boxed up for its return journey to the US in a cargo plane. The point of the innovative flight was not, it seems, its appearance at the air display, but rather its appearance in UK airspace.
SkyGuardian is the US company’s name for latest version of its armed Predator drone, which the Ministry of Defence (MoD) is choosing to call ‘Protector’. Up to twenty-six of the drones are being procured by the UK to replace its current fleet of Reaper drones from around 2023. A key feature of the new drone is that unlike its predecessors, it is being built to standards (from a construction point of view) that will allow it to be certified to fly in UK airspace. However, that does not mean that regulators will automatically grant it permission to do so. The July 2018 SkyGuardian flight into the UK required the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) to put
Despite the notion gaining ground that ‘the future is drone’, airspace regulators across the globe continue to have serious concerns about opening up skies to remotely- controlled systems due to safety issues
A Heron-1 operated by the Indian Air Force crashed soon after take-off in a residential area on Dec 13, 2013. “We were inside the house, when we heard an explosion like noise. We rushed out and saw the aircraft,” a resident told The Hindu. Credit: The Hindu 8 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen
in place extensive measures to ensure that no other aircraft were in the vicinity of the drone’s flight path. Despite the notion gaining ground that ‘the future is drone’, airspace regulators across the globe continue to have serious concerns about opening up skies to remotely-controlled systems due to safety issues.
In some sectors where remotely controlled and autonomous technology is being developed – such as self-driving cars in the automotive industry – the civil sector is leading the way. However, in the aviation sector, where remote-control and autonomy is seen as hugely important for the future transport of goods and passengers, civil industry has taken a step back and is encouraging the military to take the lead. The MoD’s plans to fly Protector drones within the UK is being seen as an important test case and is being watched carefully throughout Europe and beyond.
Over the next 18-24 months politicians, regulators and industry will deliberate on allowing Protector to fly within the UK as part of a wider question of opening up UK air space to large military and civil drones. While the debate on small drones being flown within line of sight (LOS) and their impact on security has begun – particularly in the wake of the closure of Gatwick airport in December 2018 – discussions on flying large UAVs beyond-line-of-sight (BLOS) is largely taking place behind closed doors.
This short briefing shines a light on the number of large military drone (NATO Category II and III) crashes that have taken place over the past decade. Drone Wars UK has long been involved in researching the use of these systems, including tracking accidents, primarily to examine their proliferation but also to aid consideration of safety issues. We have compiled details of more than 250 such crashes that have occurred in the past decade and the dataset is being published in this briefing in order to aid discussion and encourage debate. As well as some initial analysis on the data we also make a small number of recommendations to aid discussion. Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 9
Drone Crash Data
Drone Wars UK’s drone crash dataset contains details of just over 250 large military drone accidents that have occurred over the past decade. The full list appears as an appendix to this report and is also available online at www.dronewars.net/dronecrash2009-2018.
While there continues to be disagreement within the military and beyond about the classification of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), most adhere to the NATO system which divides them into three broad categories based on weight. Class I includes micro, mini and small drones, all under 150kg. Class II are drones that weigh over 150kg but less than 600kg, often referred to as ‘tactical’ drones. Finally, Class III drones are those, including the US Predator and Reaper, that weigh over 600kg.
Table 1: NATO UAV Classification Normal Normal Example Class Category Operating Mission Platforms Altitude Radius Micro <2kg Up to 200ft 5 km (LOS) Black Hornet Scan Eagle, Class I Mini 2–20kg Up to 3000ft 25 km (LOS) <150kg Skylark, Raven Luna, Small >20kg Up to 5000ft 50 km (LOS) Hermes 90 Class II Tactical Up to 10,000 ft 200 km (LOS) Watchkeeper, 150-600kg Sperwer, Heron-1 Medium Altitude, Long Endurance Up to 45,000 ft Unlimited Reaper, (MALE) (BLOS) Hermes 900 Class III High Altitude, Long Unlimited >600kg Endurance (HALE) Up to 65,000 ft (BLOS) Global Hawk Unlimited Strike/Combat Up to 65,000 ft (BLOS)
Source: Unmanned Aircraft Systems: Terminology, Definitions and Classifications, Ministry of Defence, JDN 3.10 Our dataset details crashes of Class II and Class III UAVs. These are primarily operated by military forces, but crashes of such systems being operated by companies that develop them, or by civil security forces (such as US Department of Homeland Security), are included. 10 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen
The information comes from three primary sources: official accident investigation reports, responses to freedom of information requests (including those resulting from an investigation by The Washington Post) and individual press reports. While each entry in the dataset includes a link to a source for further information, the vast majority of crashes have multiple sources. However, it is acknowledged from the outset that the dataset is unlikely to be complete and it is highly likely, due to the secrecy surrounding the use of these systems, that other crashes will have occurred which have not been publicised.
Before examining the information by operator and then by cause, it is worth taking an overview of the data.
In 2009 only two 2.1 An Overview of the Data other countries There are 254 drone crashes detailed in our dataset. Thirty-five (14%) are Class II besides the US with 219 (86%) being Class III drones. For a full list of the type of drones included had crashes of in the dataset and their Class, see Figure 3 below. The vast number of US drone these types of crashes in the database reflects the dominance of the US in using these systems. Out of the 254 accidents in the database, 178 (70%) were being operated drones. In 2018, by various branches of the United States military (with an additional 2 being nine countries operated by US civil security organisations). appear in the data alongside Table 2: Class II and II Military UAV Crashes 2009-2018, US vs Non-US the US. Overall 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total 19 countries had Non-US 2 8 6 8 7 6 12 9 6 12 76 crashes of large US 24 19 23 27 21 21 25 6 8 4 178 drones Total 26 27 29 35 28 27 37 15 14 16 254
While a cursory glance at the dataset would appear to show that the number of US drone crashes have declined over the past three years, official aviation mishap statistics issued by the Pentagon show that in fact they remain relatively stable. What appears to be happening, then, is that the public reporting of US crashes at the time they occur has declined (see section below on US crashes). It is worth noting that the number of UAV crashes reported in the broad statistical information issued by the US about its military aviation crashes closely matches the data we have gathered about US crashes (at least up to 2016), demonstrating the overall validity of the dataset.
Figure 1: Drone Wars UK Dataset crashes by year: US vs Non-US
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 US Non-US Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 11
The crash data also reflects the increasing proliferation of large military drones over the past decade. In 2009 only two other countries besides the US had crashes of these types of drones. In 2018, nine countries appear in the data alongside the US. Overall 19 countries had crashes of large (Class II & III) drones. In addition, we have included drone crashes when they were being operated by manufacturing companies, and two drones which crashed in 2014 while being operated by the UN. There is some dispute about whether a small number of the drones that crashed were being operated by the Syrian armed forces or whether they were in fact being operated by Iran. We have attributed these as ‘Syria? Iran?’ in the dataset.
Table 3: Class II and III Military UAV Crashes by Operator, 2009-2018
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total Australia 2 2 Canada 1 1 China 1 1 Companies 1 1 1 3 Ecuador 1 1 France 1 1 2 Germany 2 1 3 Greek 1 1 India 1 1 1 3 1 2 2 11 Iran 1 2 3 Israel 1 3 2 2 8 Italy 1 1 Nigeria 1 1 Pakistan 1 2 1 3 1 8 Saudi Arabia 1 1 Syria? Iran? 1 2 1 4 Turkey 1 1 1 2 2 7 UAE 1 1 UK 1 3 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 14 UN 2 2 Unknown 1 1 US 24 19 23 27 21 21 25 6 8 4 178 Total 26 27 29 35 28 27 37 15 14 16 254
12 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen
Figure 2: Number of Operators appearing in Drone Crash Dataset, 2009–2018
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0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
After the US, the UK has had the largest number of drone crashes reflecting its long involvement in operating this type of system. Other states with a significant number of crashes include India, Pakistan, Israel and Turkey.
From the data, we can see that the majority of drone crashes (64%) occur while the drone was in mid-flight, with 19% taking place during landing and 9% during take-off phase. Further details on the causes of crashes are in Section 4.
Figure 3: UAVS by Type and Class in the Drone Crash Dataset 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Class II Falco GIDS Uqab Heron-1 Nishant S-100 Camcopter Searcher-II Seeker 200 Shahed-123 Spewer Watchkeeper A160T Hummingbird
Class III Anka Bayraktar CASC CH-3 Global Observer 1 Hammerhead Hermes 450 Heron TP I-GNAT K-Max MQ-1 Predator MQ-170 Sentinel MQ-5B Hunter MQ-8B Fire Scout MQ-9 Reaper Global Hawk / Triton Shahed-129 Wing Loong 1 MQ 1C Gray Eagle MQ-1B Warrior Unknown
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 13
The Operators
3.1 The United States The fact that the United States is the most prolific user of armed drones is reflected in the crash data. Out of 254 accidents documented in the database, 178 (69%) were being operated by the United States. Importantly, while it appears from the dataset that the number of US drone crashes has declined in the past three years, official statistics issued by the Pentagon contradict this, with the decline apparently due to reduced public reporting of drone crashes, rather than a drop in the number of crashes itself.
3.1.1 US Official Crash Statistics Before further analysis, it is worth noting that the various branches of the US military issue statistical data regarding aviation crashes (or as they call them ‘mishaps’) which include some US UAV crashes.1 Drone Wars UK has compiled this information into the following tables. However, it is important to note several issues. Firstly, the statistics cover the US Federal Fiscal Year, which begins on 1 October of the previous calendar year and runs through to 30 September (so, for example, FY 2015 runs from 1 October 2014 to 30 September 2015). Secondly, the statistics do not cover all Class II or Class III UAVs, although the main ones are included. Finally, the US military divides aviation accidents into various classes. For an unmanned aircraft, a ‘Class A’ Mishap, is one that costs $2 million or more (over $1 million prior to FY10), a ‘Class B’ mishap is one that costs more than $500,000 but less than $2 million ($200,000 to $1 million prior to FY10). For our purposes we are including only Class A mishaps as lesser damage is likely to mean that the accident was not that serious. Helpfully, the US Air Force also gives statistics for aircraft that were destroyed (but not, unfortunately, other branches). These statistics are set out below in Table 4a – 4d.
1 See US Air Force Safety Center: https://www.safety.af.mil/Divisions/Aviation-Safety-Division/Aviation- Statistics/; US Army: UAS Class A-C Mishap Tables published in FlightFax: Newsletter of Army Aircraft Accident Prevention (various issues), https://safety.army.mil/ON-DUTY/Aviation/Flightfax; US Department of the Navy: Class A Aviation Mishaps: https://www.public.navy.mil/NAVSAFECEN/ Documents/statistics/execsummary/Mishap_Stats.pdf 14 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen
Table 4a: Official US Air Force Category II and III UAV Class A Mishap statistics, FY 2009–2018 Year Predator (MQ-1) Reaper (MQ-9) MQ-4 Global Hawk Total Class A Class A Class A Class A Destroyed Destroyed Destroyed Destroyed Mishap Mishap Mishap Mishap 2009 13 10 4 1 1 0 18 11 2010 7 6 1 1 0 0 8 7 2011 12 11 2 0 1 1 15 12 2012 9 9 4 3 0 0 13 12 2013 9 9 3 2 0 0 12 11 2014 8 7 4 4 0 0 12 11 2015 7 6 11 9 0 0 18 15 2016 7 7 5 5 0 0 12 12 2017 4 4 6 5 1 1 11 10 2018 0 0 2 2 1 1 3 3 Total 76 69 42 32 4 3 122 104
Table 4b: US Army Category II and III UAV Class A Mishaps FY 09 -18 Year (MQ-1) Hunter (MQ-5) Total Class A Class A Mishap Class A Mishap Mishap 2009 N/A N/A N/A 2010 2 3 5 2011 2 3 5 2012 5 1 6 2013 5 2 7 2014 6 1 7 2015 3 1 4 2016 12 2 14 2017 10 5 15 2018 3 1 4 Total 48 19 67
Table 4c: US Navy Category II and III FY09-18 Year MQ-4 Triton Class A Mishap 2009 0 2010 0 2011 0 2012 3 2013 1 2014 2 2015 0 2016 0 2017 0 2018 1 Total 7 Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 15
Table 4d: Combined US official statistics on Category II and III UAV Mishaps FY 2009–2018 MQ-1 (Predator MQ-4 MQ-5 / Gray Eagle / MQ-9 (Reaper) (Global Hawk/ Total (Hunter) Warrior) Triton /BAMS) 2009 13 4 N/A 1 18 2010 9 1 3 0 13 2011 14 2 3 1 20 2012 14 4 1 3 22 2013 14 3 2 1 20 2014 14 4 1 2 21 2015 10 11 1 0 22 2016 19 5 2 0 26 2017 14 6 5 1 26 2018 3 2 1 2 8 Total 124 42 19 11 196
In order to compare the official US sets of figures with our dataset, we have re-tabulated the public detail we have collected about US drone crashes in our dataset into US Fiscal Year (i.e. from 1 October of previous year to 30 September) and these are summarised in Table 4. While numbers are broadly similar (the details of MQ-9 Reaper drone crashes for example are very close) it should be remembered that the US official statistics detailed only include Class A mishaps. The Drone Wars UK dataset is based on crash details that have appeared in public and these are likely to also include a small number of crashes that were designated as Class B. Since 2016, public details of US drone crashes are much scarcer, particularly as The Washington Post has ended its work on crashes of US Army/Special Forces drone crashes. In addition, the public details in our dataset include crashes of US drones that are not included in the official statistics such as RQ-170 Sentinel, K-Max, S-100 Camcopter and the IGNAT.
Therefore, while an apparent decline in US drone crashes in the dataset since 2016 appears to be due to lack of public information (rather than a lack of actual crashes) official figures released for FY2018 show only 8 US military drone crashes compared to a five-year average of 23. This may indicate an actual decline or that the statistics given for 2018 are only an interim figure which will be updated as official crash investigation reports are released often 18-24 months later. Of relevance here too perhaps is the retirement by the US Air Force of the MQ-1 Predator in March 2018, although variants of it are still in use by the US Army. 16 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen
Table 5: US Category II and III UAV Crashes in DWUK Dataset FY 2009–2018* MQ-1 MQ-4 (Predator / MQ-9 MQ-5 (Global Hawk Other Class II Total Gray Eagle / (Reaper) (Hunter) / Triton / & II UAVs* Warrior) BAMS) 2009 16 4 3 1 1 25 2010 11 1 3 3 18 2011 16 3 3 1 1 24 2012 15 5 1 5 26 2013 13 4 3 20 2014 15 4 1 2 22 2015 11 10 1 22 2016 7 6 13 2017 3 2 1 1 7 2018 0 1 2 3 Total 107 40 11 6 16 180 *Note these figures have been adjusted to match the US Fiscal Year (1 Oct – 30 Sept) and therefore includes five crashes from calendar year 2008. Where details are unclear whether the drone crash involved a Predator or a Reaper, it is included in ‘Other’ along with crashes of RQ-170 Sentinel, K-Max, S-100 Camcopter and IGNAT. Does not include Predator and Reaper operated by the US Department of Homeland Security and the US Custom and Border Patrol respectively. In addition, it is possible, using the official US Air Force statistics, to compare crashes of unmanned systems with traditionally piloted aircraft. For the 10 years between US FY 2009 and 2018, the USAF reports 118 Predator and Reaper drone Class A mishaps. By contrast, it reports 88 Class A mishaps for all eight of its bomber and attack aircraft.
Table 6: USAF Bomber and Attack Aircraft vs Unmanned Predator/Reaper Class A Mishaps FY 2009–2018 MQ–1 / B2 B1 B-52 A-10 F-15 F-16 F-22 F-35 Total MQ–9 2009 1 2 3 1 7 17 2010 1 1 3 5 8 2011 1 2 1 5 1 10 14 2012 2 3 4 3 12 13 2013 1 1 1 7 1 11 12 2014 2 1 1 4 12 2015 3 6 1 10 18 2016 1 2 5 1 9 12 2017 1 1 1 4 1 8 10 2018 1 1 1 2 5 2 12 2 Total 0 4 5 5 17 39 15 3 88 118 Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 17
3.1.2 Where US drones have crashed What will surprise many is that more An examination of US drone crashes by location shows the extent of US drone warfare over the past decade with US crashes taking place in 18 different than a fifth (38) countries. In addition, the location of more than a dozen crashes have been of the US drone classified by the Pentagon. From the available data, it is clear that Afghanistan crashes in our has been the centre of US drone war over with 43% of US crashes taking place database have there. While US drone crashes in Afghanistan (as elsewhere) appear to have taken place within declined in the past three years, again this is likely to reflect the absence of US information releases on its UAV crashes since 2016, rather than a decline the United States in actual crashes. itself. Our analysis of these crashes What will surprise many is that more than a fifth (38) of the US drone crashes in our database have taken place within the United States itself. Our analysis shows that 58% of these crashes shows that 58% were on training flights and 26% were taking were on training part in test flights, with the remainder being either operational missions or flights and 26% movement of aircraft from one base to another. were taking part Other centres of US drone war are also clear from the crash locations, with Iraq, in test flights Yemen, Somalia and Libya all featuring. What may be surprising, considering the number of US drone strikes that have taken place there, is the low number of crashes in Pakistan. However, crashes in Pakistan are likely to be within those for which details have been classified by the Pentagon.
Other countries featured include locations where US drones are based near theatres of war, such as Djibouti, Kuwait, Niger and the Seychelles. A US A160T Hummingbird drone crashed in Belize while it was testing ‘foliage- penetrating radar’.
A US MQ-9 Reaper crashed in Nevada, Dec 5, 2012. Accident Investigators attributed the accident to crew error. Credit: USAF 18 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen
Figure 4: Location by country of US drone crashes
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Afghanistan Belize Classifed Djibouti Iran Iraq Italy Kuwait Libya Mali Niger Off coast Africa Pakistan Seychelles Somalia Spain Syria Turkey US Yemen
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Table 7: Location of US Class II & III UAV crashes, 2009–2018 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total Afghanistan 11 8 10 15 10 10 9 1 1 1 76 Belize 1 1 Djibouti 4 1 1 3 9 Iran 1 1 Iraq 6 3 1 1 4 1 16 Italy 1 1 Kuwait 1 1 Libya 1 1 1 3 Mali 1 1 Niger 1 1 Off coast Africa 1 1 2 Pakistan 1 1 Seychelles 1 1 2 Somalia 1 1 2 Spain 1 1 Syria 1 1 2 Turkey 1 1 1 3 US 6 6 4 4 6 5 2 1 2 2 38 Yemen 1 2 1 4 Classified 1 3 1 2 2 1 3 13 Total 24 18 23 28 21 24 22 6 8 4 178
Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 19
3.2 Europe Six European countries appear in the dataset, reflecting the growing number of European countries operating such systems. This is likely to increase over the next few years and several more European countries, including Spain, The Netherlands and Belgium are in the process of acquiring large military unmanned systems.
Figure 5: European operated drone crashes 15
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3.2.1 The UK After the United States, the country with the largest number of military drone crashes in the dataset is the UK, with 14 accidents. The UK began operating the unarmed Israeli Hermes 450 drone in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2007, with take-off and landing being handled by contractors. Although it is understood that a total of 10 UK operated Hermes 450s crashed in Afghanistan, three were outside the time frame of this report as they occurred before 2009.2 In 2007 the RAF began operating the Reaper in Afghanistan with the first strike taking place in May 2008. In April 2008 a UK Reaper crashed in Afghanistan and was subsequently destroyed in a UK airstrike but that is again outside the time frame of this report. Two other UK Reaper crashes were revealed in a 2015 FoI response.3 Both of these aircraft were repaired.
The UK signed a contract with Israeli company Elbit Systems in 2005 to develop a new British unmanned aerial vehicle based on the Hermes 450 named ‘Watchkeeper’. The development of the drone was plagued with problems and it missed multiple in-service deadlines. It was finally deployed operationally for the first time to Afghanistan in the weeks before the UK deployment came to an end in December 2014. Five Watchkeepers have crashed in the UK since 2014.
In April 2019, the Defence Safety Agency released Service Inquiry reports into the two separate Watchkeeper crashes that occurred in 2017. The detailed reports give important insight into the difficulties of flying unmanned systems
2 Defence Minister Andrew Robathan MP, told Parliament that 8 Hermes 450’s had crashed between 2007 and 2012. https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmhansrd/cm130124/ corrtext/130124c0001.htm 3 MoD FoI Response of 29 June 2015. See https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/ uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/470011/20151021-Incidents_ScanEagle_Hermes_ Watchkeeper.pdf and https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/ attachment_data/file/470023/20150629-AttachmentScanEagel_Hermes_Reaper.pdf 20 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen
and both are well worth reviewing.4 The report into the fourth Watchkeeper crash (on 24 March 2017) was also tasked to look at similarities with previous crashes. It noted that while the specific causes of the crashes were different, there were common themes. These included “incomplete understanding of the full system and how sub-systems integrate” by both the MoD and Thales (the company which developed and maintains Watchkeeper in conjunction with Elbit Systems); the “need to improve collection and analysis of data” from flights; and the “plethora and complexity of information” that needs to be understood by operating crews, which it says “would challenge the most competent manned-aircraft pilot.”5
Table 8: UK Category II & III UAV accidents 2009-2018 Date Type Tail No. Where Source Note Jun 13, 2018 Watchkeeper N/A Aberporth Press Destroyed Mar 24, 2017 Watchkeeper N/A Irish Sea Press Destroyed Feb 3, 2017 Watchkeeper N/A Irish Sea Press Destroyed Nov 2, 2015 Watchkeeper WK006 Salisbury Press Destroyed Oct 16, 2014 Watchkeeper WH031 Aberporth FoI Withdrawn in Jan 2015 Oct 4, 2013 Hermes 450 ZK517 Afghanistan FoI Retired in 2014 Sep 5, 2013 Hermes 450 ZK518 Afghanistan FoI Repaired and retired in 2014 July 22, 2012 Hermes 450 ZK506 Afghanistan FoI Destroyed Mar 31, 2012 MQ-9 Reaper ZZ203 Afghanistan FoI Repaired Oct 2, 2011 Hermes 450 Zk515 Afghanistan FoI Destroyed Jun 3, 2010 Hermes 450 ZK512 Afghanistan FoI Destroyed May 21, 2010 Hermes 450 ZK516 Afghanistan FoI Destroyed May 2, 2010 MQ-9 Reaper ZZ202 Afghanistan FoI Repaired Jun 2 2009 Hermes 450 ZK513 Afghanistan FoI Destroyed
3.2.2 Other European Countries Besides the UK, five other European countries have large drone crashes in the database: France, Germany, Greece, Italy, and Turkey.
A French Sperwer operated by the army crashed into a house in Northern France during a training exercise in 2016. Very fortunately, no one was injured. An unarmed Reaper, operated by the French air force crashed in Niger as it returned to Niamey airport in late 2018.
Three separate crashes of Heron-1 drones operated by the German military in Afghanistan occurred in 2010 and 2011. The first, in March 2010, occurred while the drone was taxiing on the runway, the pilot appeared to lose control and the drone crashed into another aircraft.6 The other two crashed in mid-flight and
4 Service Inquiry report into the Loss of Watchkeeper (WK042) Unmanned Air Vehicle over Cardigan Bay in West Wales on 3 February 2017, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/service- inquiry-report-into-the-loss-of-watchkeeper-wk042-unmanned-air-vehicle-over-cardigan-bay-in-west- wales-on-3-february-2017; Service Inquiry report into the Loss of Watchkeeper (WK043) Unmanned Air Vehicle over Cardigan Bay in West Wales on 24 March 2017, https://www.gov.uk/government/ publications/service-inquiry-report-into-the-loss-of-watchkeeper-wk043-unmanned-air-vehicle-over- cardigan-bay-in-west-wales-on-24-march-2017 5 Ibid. See section 1.6.14 6 David Cenciotti, New video of drone crashing into a C-160 cargo plane in Afghanistan raises concern over German UAVs safety, The Aviationist, 16 July 2013, https://theaviationist.com/2013/07/16/heron- vs-c-160/ Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 21
were subsequently destroyed by air strikes.7
Italy has been operating unarmed Predator and Reaper drones since 2004. One crashed into the Mediterranean during a training flight in 2010 when operators lost contact with the drone.
Turkey has a number of crashes included in the dataset since it developed its indigenous drones the Anka and the Bayraktar. Some have crashed during testing, but since they have become accepted into service a number have also crashed on operations against Kurdish groups both within Turkey and in Syria.
Table 9: Other European drone crashes Date Operator Drone Location of crash Nov 2016 France Sperwer France Nov 2018 France Reaper Niger Mar 2010 Germany Heron-1 Afghanistan Dec 2010 Germany Heron-1 Afghanistan Nov 2011 Germany Heron-1 Afghanistan Sep 2018 Greece Sperwer Greece Jan 2010 Italy Reaper Italy Mar 2011 Turkey Heron -1 Turkey Sept 2012 Turkey Anka Turkey Dec 2013 Turkey Anka Turkey Aug 2016 Turkey Bayraktar TB2 Turkey Oct 2016 Turkey Anka Turkey Feb 2018 Turkey Bayraktar TB2 Syria Jun 2018 Turkey Bayraktar TB2 Turkey
3.3 Other Countries Besides the US and European countries, twelve other countries appear in our dataset, along with the UN and crashes of drones operated by companies. Figure 6: Non-European/US drone crashes
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India Iran UAE UN China Israel Canada Nigeria Australia Ecudaor Pakistan Unknown Iran? Syria? Companies Saudia Arabia
7 Gerhard Hegmann, German army drone Heron crashes in Afghanistan, Welt, 11 November 2013, (Translated) https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article121775327/Bundeswehr-Drohne-Heron-zerschellt- in-Afghanistan.html 22 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen
Of note is the large number of crashes of Indian-operated drones. While all the As the number of types crashed are of the smaller Class II, the number of different types of drones nations operating as well as the overall number (the third highest in the dataset) is significant. large armed Israel and Pakistan both have 8 crashes in the dataset but have a very different drones increases, history with drones. Israel has a long history of using large drones – longer we are likely to perhaps than the United States – and has exported a significant amount. Its see an increasing drones are in regular use against Palestinian targets in Gaza as well in Lebanon and Egypt. It is perhaps surprising there are not more Israeli crashes in the number of dataset. conflicts in which multiple states are Pakistan has a number of the smaller Class II drones in service and most crashes are of this type. However, stung by continued US drone strikes in their territory, operating armed Pakistan vowed to obtain and put into service a larger, Predator type armed drones, making drone. It subsequently obtained Wing Loong UAVs from China, one of which accountability for crashed in June 2016. strikes immensely The dataset records three crashes of drones being operated by the Iranian difficult armed forces: two in Iran and one in Iraq. Four other Iranian drones are recorded as crashing, three in Syria and one in Israel, although it is not clear if these were being operated by Syrian or Iranian forces at the time. All of these four were reported as being shot down – two by the US, one by Israel and one by Turkey. Table 10: Countries with drone crashes by multiple states
States operating drones
Location
of crashes Australia Canada France Germany Iran Syria? Iran? Israel Pakistan Saudi Arabia Turkey UAE UK US Unknown Total Afghanistan 1 1 3 9 76 90 Iraq 1 16 17 Israel 1 5 6 Niger 1 1 2 Pakistan 8 1 9 Syria 3 1 2 6 Turkey 6 3 9 Yemen 1 1 4 1 7
In addition to crashes by states, the dataset records two drone crashes by the UN and three by companies. The two UN crashes both occurred in the Democratic Republic of Congo where the UN were undertaking peacekeeping missions. Two of the company-operated crashes were on test flights, one (in 2011) in the US where AeroVironment was testing its Global Observer 1 UAV, and one in Italy (in 2016) where Piaggio were testing its Hammerhead drone. Both drone development projects were brought to an end by the crashes. A 2012 demonstration flight of a Schiebel S-100 Camcopter by the company in South Korea ended in tragedy when the drone crashed and killed an engineer and injured two others.
Three states have been the location of crashes by two or more other nations: Afghanistan, Syria and Yemen. As the number of nations operating large armed drones increases, we are likely to see an increasing number of conflicts in which multiple states are operating armed drones, making accountability for strikes immensely difficult. Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 23
A brief look at the causes of drone crashes
Analysis of the data enables us to gain a good understanding of when, on average, drone crashes take place. 64% of the crashes took place while the drone was in mid-flight, while 20% occurred at the point of landing. 8% crashed during the take-off phase, with a small number of crashes (1%) taking place while the drone was taxiing along the runway. For 7% of the recorded accidents, it is unknown at what stage the crash occurred.
Figure 7: When drone crashes happen
Taxiing Unknown
Landing Take-off 1% 7% 20% 8%
64% Mid-flight
Alongside this, there are some details of the cause of the crash for just over half (56%) of the crashes. While these details primarily come from official US accident investigation reports either published online or obtained though Freedom of Information requests – and are therefore heavily skewed towards US drone crashes – the reasons are likely to be common across all drone crashes.
Although the reasons for the crashes are often summarised for brevity’s sake (i.e. ‘mechanical failure’ or ‘lost link’) it should be noted that behind these broad categories there are often multiple and complex causes for the crashes. It is 24 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen
also of note that there is no one single or main causes of crashes, but rather a multitude of different reasons. Here, we look at some causes for the crashes and include edited excerpts from US crash investigations where these broad causes are given, with a link to the full report for further details.8
4.1 Mechanical failure The most common reason for crashes (22%) is attributed to mechanical failure. This includes failures of particular pieces of equipment such as a turbo-charger or a propeller, to pieces of wings or tails becoming detached.
Examples: 8 November 2015 MQ-1B Predator Kuwait Mid-flight: Mechanical At approximately 16:38, the recovery crew took handover of the aircraft from the mission crew. The aircraft was returning early due to an Outside Air Temperature sensor failure. The handover was uneventful. Over the next 15 minutes, the aircraft began a descent for landing and the crew started working through appropriate checklist procedures for descent and arrival.
Evidence showed that the left tail and tail insert fell off the aircraft and consequently the aircraft became uncontrollable. The aircraft entered an unrecoverable spin and the impact destroyed the aircraft. The Abbreviated Accident Investigation Board found by a preponderance of the evidence that the cause of the mishap was the failure of the left tail clamp and/or left tail clamp bolts. The loss of the left tail insert and the attached left tail surface resulted in an unrecoverable departure from controlled flight, and the aircraft crashed en route to the intended base of landing. The estimated cost of aircraft and munitions is $5.3 million. [Full report]
27 June 2013 MQ-1B Predator Afghanistan Landing: Mechanical On 27 June at 01:18 the aircraft departed Jalalabad air base. The crew flew the aircraft uneventfully until 08:24 when the aircraft experienced a turbocharger failure. The crew ran the appropriate checklist and initiated a return to base. Between 08:45 and 09:01 the crew handed over to the launch and recovery crew. The Air Traffic Control Tower reported winds within technical order limits with variable headings and gusts. However, as the aircraft passed the location of the runway threshold there was a very strong gust of wind, which resulted in unsafe landing conditions. The pilot executed a go-around but was unable to sustain flight. At 09.05 the aircraft impacted the ground approximately 800ft past the departure end of the runway at Jalalabad.
The Accident Investigation Board found that that a combination of turbocharger failure and a strong wind gust caused the mishap to occur. The aircraft and one Hellfire missile (AGM-114) was destroyed upon impact with the loss valued at $4,511,499.00. [Full report]
8 Note regarding US accident report: A ‘launch and recovery’ crew located where the drones are based launch and land the drones via line of site communications before handing over to a mission crew located in the US, which then operate the drone via satellite. All times given are ‘Zulu time’ (i.e. GMT). Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 25
4.2 Electrical failure 13% of the crashes (for which we have cause details) are attributed to electrical failures. These include failure of on-board power generators and various servo- motors as well as the failure of wiring and cables bringing power to particular pieces of equipment.
A British Watchkeeper drone on a training flight crashed at Boscombe Down airfield on 2 November 2015. Credit: MAA
Examples: 4 Feb 2015 MQ-9A Reaper Off coast of Africa Mid-flight: Electrical The aircraft took off at 05:30Z on 4 February 2015 and had an uneventful sortie until approximately 08:35, when the aircraft’s starter-generator failed. The crew reversed the flight direction of the aircraft and began its return flight to base.
The crew turned off several pieces of equipment that used electrical power in an attempt to maximize battery life. At 10:32, the crew reported that the batteries had 24 volts of power remaining when the aircraft was approximately thirty miles from base. Based on the inability to guarantee complete control of the aircraft during approach and landing, the crew was ordered by the Joint Forces Air Component Commander to purposefully fly the aircraft into international waters. At 11:33, the aircraft responded to pilot commanded inputs and impacted the water. The Abbreviated Accident Investigation Board found by a preponderance of evidence that the cause of this mishap was a starter-generator failure. Loss of government property is valued at $13,203,658.00. [Full report]
17 Aug 2017 MQ-1B Predator Location Classified Mid-flight: Electrical The aircraft executed an unrecoverable flight manoeuvre after the aircraft was transferred from the launch crew. The majority of the aircraft was destroyed from a fire at the impact site.
General Atomics completed analysis on the cockpit data log recordings and found the cause of the rapid unrecoverable manoeuvre was a failure of an electrical cable that resulted in a loss of power in the left tail flight control surface. This loss of power moved the left tail electrical components to the maximum trailing-edge-down deflection, resulting in a non-flyable configuration. The estimated cost of the aircraft and environmental clean-up cost was $5,380,813. [Full report]
26 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen
4.3 Engine Failure Engine failure is another primary reason given for drone crashes with 27% of the crashes for which we have causes attributed to engine failure. However, these are often caused by an oil or fuel leak or the loss of coolant.
Engine failure reportedly led to the crash of a Bayraktar TB2 near Sanliurfa, Turkey on 24 August 2016 after it had conducted a surveillance mission in Syria. Credit: Dogan News Agency
Examples: 18 November 2015 MQ-9A Reaper Afghanistan Take-off: Engine On 18 November 2015, at approximately 23:38 an MQ-9A Reaper assigned to the 27th Special Operations Wing at Cannon Air Force Base and deployed to Kandahar International Airport, crashed in an open field near the base after declaring an in-flight emergency shortly after take-off.
The launch crew noticed high oil pressure, rising exhaust gas temperature, and fluctuating torque immediately upon take-off. The crew reported the emergency and attempted a recovery to the runway; however, complete engine failure occurred on the crosswind leg at approximately 500 feet above ground level. The aircraft glided to a crash landing as the crew attempted to circle around to land. The impact destroyed the aircraft, four missiles, and one bomb, resulting in a loss valued at $14,391,950.
The Abbreviated Accident Investigation Board found by a preponderance of the evidence the cause of the mishap to be a compressor bearing failure that led to engine loss. [Full report]
26 April 2014 MQ-1B Predator Afghanistan Mid-flight: Engine On 25 April 2014 at 18:29, the aircraft took off from Jalalabad Airfield without incident. Approximately 5.3 hours after take-off and 45 minutes after the crew assumed control of the aircraft from previous crew, the aural warning tone alarm sounded in the ground control station. Simultaneously, the warnings for “low oil level” and “low oil pressure” appeared on the heads-down display. The engine oil level had rapidly decreased from 76 percent to 35 percent within a span of one minute and 54 seconds. The crew observed pieces of material and fluid emanating from the aircraft at a rapid pace. The pilot turned the aircraft in the direction of Jalalabad Airfield, while executing the Low Oil Pressure Checklist. Seven minutes after the initial warning, the engine seized completely. Shortly thereafter, the crew lost satellite datalink connectivity with the aircraft. At the time it lost connectivity, the aircraft was at 14,500 feet and descending in a glide. The satellite datalink was restored and remained Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 27
and descending in a glide. The satellite datalink was restored and remained intact for approximately 14 more minutes. When it was apparent that the MA would crash, the crew began to search for a non-populated area to land. Using the camera, they looked down and identified a valley. Twenty to twenty-five seconds prior to impacting the ground, the crew lost satellite connectivity with the MA and never regained it back. The aircraft was destroyed upon impact.
The Abbreviated Accident Investigation Board found, by clear and convincing evidence, that the cause of the mishap was an engine oil leak. The aircraft was destroyed upon impact with an estimated loss of government property valued at $4.61 million. [Full report]
Table 11: Phase of mission and causes of drone crashes extracted from DWUK dataset When Cause given Take-off phase Electrical failure 1 Mechanical failure 1 Engine Failure 2 Lost link 3 Pilot error 3 No details available 11 Total 21 Mid-flight Electrical failure 15 Mechanical failure 25 Engine Failure 18 Lost link 16 Pilot error 8 Electronics failure 5 Weather 6 Bird strike 1 Shot down (5) / Possibly shot down (4) 9 No details available 60 Total 163 Landing phase Electrical failure 2 Mechanical failure 5 Engine Failure 7 Lost link 3 Electronics failure 2 Pilot error 7 Software failure 3 Weather 1 No details available 20 Total 50 Taxiing on runway No details available 3 Unknown No details available 17 Total 254
28 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen
4.4 Pilot error Crashes are attributed to pilot or crew error when decisions they make directly lead to a crash. However, this is often in the situation of a crisis occurring when crew have to make decisions in a very limited amount of time. In crisis situations, crews are supposed to follow a procedure checklist but this appears to be difficult in some circumstances. 13% of the crashes for which we have a cause are attributed to pilot error.
Examples: 7June 2016 MQ-9A Reaper United States Mid-flight: Pilot error At approximately 22:27, the crew undertaking a proficiency flight at Nevada test range, gained control of the aircraft from the launch crew at 8,500 feet mean sea level. At 22:28, when crew executed handover checklist items, they unknowingly engaged the pre-set altitude and the aircraft began to climb. The sensor operator advised the pilot, who was completing handover checklists, of the climb. The pilot incorrectly believed there was an unexpected flight condition or malfunction, switched from autopilot to manual mode and directed the aircraft to descend to 8,000 feet. The pilot also reduced power to the aircraft to avoid acceleration. The pilot then resumed working on the handover checklist. However, the pilot had not adjusted nose/pitch, which was positioned upward and the aircraft stalled.
Preoccupied with the handover checklist, the pilot did not observe the Heads-Up Display gauges nor the audible and visual stall warnings. The sensor operator advised the pilot that the aircraft was in a stall condition. The pilot did not apply the Flight Manual stall recovery procedures, but instead, increased power to the aircraft, which, due to the weight of the aircraft and its stalled condition, caused it to spiral towards the ground. The aircraft impacted the ground in the Nevada Test and Training Range at 22:29.
The Abbreviated Accident Investigation Board found by a preponderance of the evidence the cause of the mishap was the combination of (1) the pilots mis-prioritization to complete the handover checklist, and (2) the pilot’s failure to observe prior warnings of reduced energy state and stall, and timely implement stall recovery procedures. The aircraft was destroyed at a loss of $11,063,339.00. [Full report]
4 April 2012 MQ-9A Reaper Seychelles Airport Take-off: Pilot error On 4 April 2012, at 09:29 an MQ-9A Reaper Remotely Piloted Aircraft, crashed into the Indian Ocean following a commanded engine shutdown and attempted forced landing that occurred 4 minutes and 15 seconds after take- off from Seychelles International Airport
The crew consisted of a contractor-furnished Operator and Sensor Operator. The accident investigation board found by clear, convincing evidence that the causes of the mishap were 1) the Operator commanded the engine off by moving the Condition Lever to a position that closed the fuel shut off valve, shutting off fuel to the engine and 2) the Operator and SO failed to complete the landing gear extension sequence to include confirming that the landing gear was extended. Additionally, the AIB president found by a preponderance of evidence that Operator’s limited recent experience in launch procedures substantially contributed to the mishap. The aircraft, Multi-Spectral Targeting System (MTS), MTS Electronics Unit, and Special Operations Forces (SOF) pod were destroyed, a loss value exceeding $8,931,000. [Full report] Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 29
4.5 Lost link Crews regularly lose contact with their drones due to communication or other problems. Often the link is re-established within a short time. If it is not, the drone is programmed to fly on auto-pilot to a particular point where it is hoped connection can be re-established. However, on occasion the link is never re- established and the drone flies on until it runs out of fuel and crashes or is shot down.9 Fifteen per cent of the crashes for which we have a cause are attributed to lost link.
US military forensic experts investigate the remains of a Predator drone aircraft crashed near Incirlik Air Base, Adana, Turkey, Wednesday, Feb. 3, 2016. Credit: AP
Examples: 18 Sept 2012 MQ-1B Predator Location Classified Mid-flight: Lost Link The remotely piloted aircraft took off from a forward operating base at 01:02. Prior to the crew taking control of the aircraft there was difficulty with the satellite link that allows the aircraft to communicate with its crew. However, the issue was resolved by resetting the connection and the mission proceeded. At approximately 09:19 the primary navigation system began to diverge from the secondary navigation systems by approximately .1 nautical mile, to a maximum divergence of .25 nautical miles. Normally these systems record the same, or approximately the same, location for the aircraft. At 09:21 the aircraft satellite data link disconnected (known as ‘lost link’). [Full report]
The pilot ran the appropriate checklist but was unsuccessful in re-establishing a satellite link. At approx 09:26 the aircraft impacted about 3.25 nautical miles south-southwest from the point of ‘lost-link’. The Accident Investigation Board could not determine any cause of, or factor that substantially contributed to this mishap. The aircraft was destroyed at an estimated loss of £4.4 million. [Full report]
9 Air Force Shoots Down Runaway Drone Over Afghanistan, 14 Sept 2009, Popular Science, https://www.popsci.com/military-aviation-amp-space/article/2009-09/when-drones-go-wild-air-force- shoots-them-down 30 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen
4 Sept 2017 MQ-1B Predator Location Classified Mid-flight: Lost Link The crew permanently lost the ability to monitor and control the mission aircraft while flying medium altitude approximately 16 hours into the mission. The location of the aircraft is unknown.
After normal crew changeover briefs, the mishap crew lost complete video and command link (“lost link”) within one minute of sitting in the cockpit, resulting in an inability to monitor and control the aircraft. At the moment of the lost link event, the aircraft was operating normally at an altitude of 13,000 feet. The aircraft wreckage was not found from the time of the incident to the completion of this investigation. The estimated cost of the missing aircraft is $4.09 Million. [Full report]
4.6 Other causes The other 10% of crashes were caused by electronics and software failure, poor weather, enemy action, and in one case, a bird strike. Electronic equipment and computer components are vital to the successful flight of UAVs and when systems such as electronic navigation systems or GPS receivers fail it can be catastrophic. Similarly, if the software embedded in electronic equipment fails it can lead directly to a crash. Drones are remarkably vulnerable to weather changes and a number of crashes documented in the dataset were caused by lightning strikes, ice accumulation or strong winds.
Examples: 21 June 2017 RQ-4B Global Hawk United States Mid-flight: Electronics On 16 June 2017, the RQ-4B Global Hawk arrived at Edwards AFB from Beale AFB for a right-wing composite repair. Personnel from 9th Maintenance Squadron completed the repair without complications. On 21 June 2017, after a pre-flight inspection, the aircraft took off at 12:21.
The aircraft climbed and flew to planned waypoints uneventfully. At approximately 13:09, one of the two enabled Litton LN-100G navigators (LNA and LNB) --specifically LNA--began producing erroneous navigational data. Failing to detect LNA’s erroneous data, the MRPA rolled to a nearly inverted position and entered a dive that resulted in an excessive airspeed. The aircraft broke up and crashed in an unpopulated and rugged area between Lone Pine, California, and Mount Whitney, California.
The Accident Investigation Board found, by a preponderance of evidence, that the causes of the mishap were that the aircraft’s LNA produced erroneous navigational data and the aircraft’s navigation system did not detect the erroneous navigational data. The aircraft, valued at $79 million, was destroyed. [Full report] Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 31
24 September 2015 MQ-1B Predator Libya Mid-flight: Weather On 24 September 2015, at approximately 02:00, after normal maintenance and pre-flight checks, the aircraft departed from an undisclosed air base for a mission in an undisclosed location. At approximately 09:02, the aircraft entered clouds just as the Ground Control Station (GCS) experienced momentary interruptions (lost link) to the radio link the aircrew uses to control the MQ-1B.
Upon entering the clouds, the crew attempted to reverse direction of flight. The crew visually detected ice on the aircraft and the camera. Aircraft systems also detected the formation of ice on the aircraft. Turbulence and icing caused the aircraft’s angle of attack and roll control to become erratic. The airspeed dropped below stall speed, and the aircraft stalled causing it to lose link to the GCS completely. At 09:04, the GCS received one data sample indicating the aircraft was in an extreme nose-down attitude and had lost approximately 10,000 feet of altitude. Based upon the last data sample and with the aircraft unrecoverable, the crew suspected the aircraft had crashed. At 10:15, another aircraft operating in the area confirmed the crash via video feed. The aircraft was destroyed upon impact and the wreckage was not recovered. Damage to the aircraft is estimated at $5,156,042
The Abbreviated Accident Investigation Board found by a preponderance of the evidence that the aircraft skin, already cooled below freezing, flew into clouds, which caused ice to accumulate on the structure. Icing and turbulence resulted in degraded flight performance, and the crew was unable to regain control over the MRPA prior to impact with the ground. [Full report]
A US MQ-1 Predator crashed near Derna, Libya on September 24, 2015. Although ISIS claimed it had downed the drone, a USAF investigation attributed the crash to weather. Credit: Social media screenshot
Finally, nine drone crashes in the dataset are attributed to the drone being shot down. Non-state groups regularly claim responsibility after a drone crash. For example, in September 2015, an Islamic State affiliated group posted images of a crashed MQ-1 Predator that it claimed to have downed.10 However, a USAF Accident Report published in March 2016 detailed the cause of the crash to have been weather related.11
10 Daniele Raineri, Un drone Predator è caduto su una zona dello Stato islamico in Libia, Il Foglio, 25 September 2015, https://www.ilfoglio.it/esteri/2015/09/25/news/un-drone-predator-e-caduto-su-una- zona-dello-stato-islamico-in-libia-87897/ 11 USAF Aircraft Accident Investigation Board Report of 24 September 2015 – published 25 March 2016, http://www.airforcemag.com/AircraftAccidentReports/Documents/2016/092416_MQ1B_Undisclosed. pdf 32 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen
As well as non-state group claims, several drones have been downed by states including the US, Israel and Turkey. Of the nine crashes attributed to enemy action we judge five to have been reliable and four to be at least possible. These details are summarised in Table12.
Table 12: Crashes attributed to enemy action in drone crash dataset Date Operator Type Shot down by Location Source Jul 12, 2018 Saudi Arabia Wing Loong I Yemeni air defence Yemen Press report Feb 12, 2018 Turkey Bayraktar Syrian Defence Force Syria Press report Feb 10, 2018 Iran? Syria? Unknown Israeli helicopter Israel Press report Oct 01, 2017 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Houthi militia Yemen Press report Jun 20, 2017 Iran? Syria? Shahed-129 US F-15 Syria Press report Jun 08, 2017 Iran? Syria? Shahed-129? US fighter jet Syria Press report May 16, 2016 Iran? Syria? Shahed-123 Turkish F-16 Syria Press report Jul 05 2015 UAE Air Force Seeker 200 Houthi militia Yemen Press report Mar 17 2015 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Syrian air defence? IS? Syria USAF report Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 33
Comment: Opening UK airspace to large military drones
British armed forces now have more than a decade’s experience of using large The technology is remotely-controlled aircraft such as the Reaper, Hermes 450 and Watchkeeper in many ways still for military operations in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. From a military perspective, in its infancy and the use of these systems is rapidly becoming normalised, and there is now a real desire by the MoD to begin to use them within UK airspace both for training for a whole variety purposes and for civil emergencies.12 Also waiting in the wings are a number of of reasons large private corporations who see the commercial potential of operating large UAVs military remotely in the UK for the transport of goods and even passengers once the military has controlled aircraft cleared the regulatory barriers. regularly crash; However, as this short briefing has demonstrated, the technology is in many around twice a ways still in its infancy and for a whole variety of reasons – design flaws, month on average communications difficulties, complexity, human error – large military remotely- over the past controlled aircraft regularly crash; around twice a month on average over the decade. past decade. An important insight here comes from one of the Service Inquiry reports into the crash of a British Watchkeeper drone in 2017 which argues that a key theme running across all the crashes of that type is the “disproportionate level of complexity” of the system. As an example, it reports that while the Flight Reference Cards for the AgustaWestland AW159 Wildcat helicopter runs to 80 pages, for Watchkeeper they run to 265 pages. “It would be reasonable to conclude,” the report’s author summarises, “that the complexity of flying Watchkeeper is disproportionate and adds unnecessary risk to the conduct of safe flight.”13 It should be noted that Normal Accident Theory, originally proposed in 1984 by Charles Perrow, suggests that for complex systems, accidents are normal and unavoidable events because unrelated incidents accumulate and align to create major malfunctions that can produce disastrous results.14
The UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) is the lead-buyer of General Atomics’ newest version of the Predator drone, which the UK is choosing to call ‘The Protector’.
12 Mark Hookham, RAF killer drones to fly in the UK, The Times, 2 October 2016, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f748bfb8-881d-11e6-8242-d338f8b15268 13 Service Inquiry report into the Loss of Watchkeeper (WK042) Unmanned Air Vehicle over Cardigan Bay in West Wales on 3 February 2017, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/ system/uploads/attachment_data/file/792947/20190402-WK042_SI_Final_Report-_Redacted__RT-OS. pdf, 1.6.14 (page 132) 14 Charles Perrow, Normal Accidents: Living with High Risk Technologies – Updated edition, Princeton University Press, 1999, https://press.princeton.edu/titles/6596.html 34 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen
While it is being built to standards to allow it to be ‘certified’ for flying in UK airspace, regulators have to be convinced that it can fly safely. In particular, as there is no onboard pilot, the aircraft cannot fulfil what is considered the bedrock of air safety: a pilot being able to ‘see and avoid’ other aircraft. General Atomics is developing an electronic ‘Detect and Avoid’ system which it argues will be able to fulfil this safety function but this technology is largely untested.
In the United States, unmanned systems like Predator, Reaper and Global Hawk are allowed to fly in airspace specially segregated for military use and also in national airspace if they obtain authorization in advance from the Federal Aviation Authority (FAA).15 These authorised flights are always accompanied by a manned chase aircraft to ensure safety. In June 2018, for the first time, General Atomics trialled its ‘detect and avoid’ systems on board a drone with authorization of the FAA.16
Here in the UK discussion between the MoD, General Atomics and UK airspace regulators – the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) – did not go particularly well as documents released to Drone Wars UK following Freedom of Information requests show.17 Reading between the lines (and redactions) there appears to have been a desire by some to press ahead and cut through what was perhaps regarded as bureaucratic red tape. A suggested solution (the specific details of which have been redacted from the papers) was advanced which did not impress the airspace regulators. A CAA official, reporting back to his colleagues, wrote that he had expressed his “lack of confidence” with the solution and made clear “the novel and ground breaking nature” of what had been proposed. As many will remember from ‘Yes Minister’, this is a polite, but damning verdict from civil servants. After around 12 months of meetings, it was agreed that the General Atomics and the MoD would stop meeting with the CAA and instead deal with the Military Aviation Authority (MAA) who would then in turn liaise with the CAA.
A Hermes 450 being operated by the British Army crashed at Bastion airfield in Afghanistan on October 2 2011 following engine failure. Credit: UK Military Aviation Authority
15 Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS): DoD Purpose and Operational Use, US Department of Defence, https://dod.defense.gov/UAS/ 16 Jason Murdock, Ikhana: Why NASA has just flown a huge unmanned aircraft into public airspace, Newsweek, 14 June 2018, https://www.newsweek.com/ikhana-nasa-has-just-flown-unmanned-aircraft- public-airspace-976094 17 Revealed: internal discussions between MoD and regulators on flying Predator drones in UK, Drone Wars UK, 12 February 2018 https://dronewars.net/2018/02/12/revealed-internal-discussions-between- mod-and-regulators-on-flying-predator-drones-in-uk/ Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 35
In January 2019, General Atomics announced that it had had signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with UK defence giant BAE Systems “to collaborate on integration of RPA [Remotely Piloted Aircraft] into UK national airspace.”18 BAE Systems said that it would support General Atomics through its experience of testing unmanned systems and also by “shaping the regulatory environment through participation, dialogue and strong relationships with UK and European regulatory authorities.” General Atomics, it seems, has turned to UK military big gun, BAE Systems, to lobby on their behalf.
While there continues to be debate and discussion about the safety implication of the rising use of small unmanned drones, discussion about opening UK airspace to larger drones is mostly taking place behind closed doors. To begin a wider public discussion on the use of these we make the following recommendations:
5.1 Recommendations • Internal documents released in response to a Drone Wars UK FoI request show that the MoD recognise that there is both public and ‘air traffic management community’ disquiet about the use of large UAVs in UK airspace and suggests a ‘communications strategy’ is needed:
“Public perception will be central to normalising RPAS [Remotely Piloted Air Systems] use in UK airspace, especially for military purposes. An internal and external communication strategy will therefore be essential to support Protector...”
“The perception of RPAS – both by the public and the ATM [Air Traffic Management] community will be central to integration and require a coherent cross-government communications strategy”. 19
While the MoD is entitled to make its case for flying large UAVs within UK airspace, as a public body it needs to take care that its information does not cross the line into PR. Any communications strategy aimed at persuading the public on Protector needs to be balanced as well as recognising and reflecting the risks associated with the use of these systems in order to give the public a full picture.
• A key reason given by the MoD to begin using Protector within the UK is for training purposes. However, the MoD has been operating large armed drones for more than a decade without undertaking training within the UK. RAF pilots have been happily undertaking training flights within segregated airspace in the US and on simulator systems. Indeed, General Atomics recently contracted CAE to provide a new, comprehensive, synthetic training systems for Protector.20 As well as the danger of accidents, training in the UK would bring other concerns. In 2012 the New York Times revealed that as part of their training, drone pilots track and trail vehicles driving along local highways.21 It is disconcerting, to say the least, that driving along the A15 or the A46 near Lincoln could entail being tracked by a military drone.
18 Press Release: GA-ASI Hosts Industry Showcase Highlighting UK Partners, 24 January 2019, http://www.ga.com/ga-asi-hosts-industry-showcase-highlighting-uk-partners 19 Memo dated 20 May 2016 entitled: ‘Protector UK Airspace Integration, PSO Asst Chief of Air Staff’, Available at page 72 of bundle of documents released by CAA regarding communication with MoD on Predator B ER (‘Protector’) https://dronewarsuk.files.wordpress.com/2018/02/20171222attachment11.pdf 20 Press Release: ‘CAE awarded contract by GA-ASI to develop synthetic training system for United Kingdom’s Protector remotely piloted aircraft’, CAE, 24 Jan 2019, https://www.cae.com/news-events/ press-releases/cae-awarded-contract-by-ga-asi-to-develop-synthetic-training-system-for-united- kingdoms-protector-remotely-piloted-aircraft/ 21 Mark Mazzetti, The Drone Zone, The New York Times Magazine, 6 July 2012, https://www.nytimes.com/ 2012/07/08/magazine/the-drone-zone.html?pagewanted=1&ref=magazine 36 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen
A full and open review should be undertaken of military remotely piloted training to ascertain whether the advantages to training with these systems within the UK justifies the increased risk to the public, particularly if such training can be undertaken by different means.
• While the majority of large UAV crashes occur during mid-flight, the data shows that a significant amount of accidents happen during the take-off and landing phase. While military bases in war zones tend to be away from populated areas, the home base of Protector will be RAF Waddington in Lincolnshire.22 Waddington has a sizeable local community and the base is surrounded by houses, shops, businesses and a school. While it is impossible to negate all risk, the regular operation of large military unmanned systems from a base in a relatively populated location appears to increase the risk to that population. It would be important that the local population in and around RAF Waddington is fully informed of the increased risk due to the basing of Protector there, and measures are taken to mitigate that increased risk. • Politicians and senior military officials have acknowledged that once granted permission to fly in UK airspace, Protector would be available to civil authorities to undertake an “array of homeland defence tasks”.23 While the MoD is keen to highlight that this could include “search and rescue” and “flood prevention”, it is less keen to talk about its possible use by the security services. Debate about scope of, and limitations on, the use of military UAVs to monitor suspect individuals or groups within the UK is beyond the scope of this publication but undoubtedly deserves proper thought and debate in advance of any domestic deployment of Protector. An inquiry by the Human Rights Select Committee would seem to be an appropriate forum to begin discussion of the aspect. • The Military Aviation Authority (MAA) is regularly described as an “independent authority” or an “independent organisation” yet it is an agency wholly within the Ministry of Defence, led by serving military officers. To avoid any conflict of interest – or even the appearance of any conflict of interest – it would be wrong to grant to the MAA the responsibility for authorising the use of large military drones in UK airspace. To do so would be putting the MAA itself, as well as its staff, in a compromising position. To ensure rigour in the regulatory process the independent Civil Aviation Authority must be the agency responsible for granting permission for Protector or any other large unmanned aerial vehicles to fly in UK airspace.
22 Waddington to operate Protector, with best of British air power on show at Air Tattoo, MoD, 13 July 2018, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/waddington-to-operate-protector-with-best-of-british- air-power-on-show-at-air-tattoo 23 See Mark Hookham, RAF killer drones to fly in UK, The Times, 2 October 2016, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f748bfb8-881d-11e6-8242-d338f8b15268 Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 37
Drone Crash Dataset 2008–2019
No. Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location Details 2018 1 Nov 17, 2018 French Air MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight Niamey, Niger Press report Force 2 Oct 28, 2018 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight Paktika, Press report Afghanistan 3 Sep 13, 2018 US Navy MQ-4 Triton Landing California, USA Press report 4 Sep 13,2018 Greek Army Spewer Take-off phase Komotini, Press report Greece 5 Aug 14, 2018 US CBP MQ-9 Reaper Landing Texas, USA Press report 6 Jul 12, 2018 Saudi Arabia Wing Loong I Mid-flight Rabuah, Yemen Press report (shot down?) 7 Jun 30, 2018 Turkey Bayraktar TB2 Mid-flight Hatay, Turkey Press report 8 Jun 26, 2018 US Air Force RQ-4 Global Mid-flight Off coast of Press report Hawk Spain 9 Jun 13, 2018 UK Army Watchkeeper Mid-flight Aberporth, Press report Wales 10 9 May 2018 Pakistan Falco Take-off phase Sargodha, Press report Pakistan 11 Apr 14, 2018 Indian Navy Heron-1 Mid-flight Gujarat, India Press report 12 Mar 2018 Israeli Air Unknown Mid-flight Off Israeli coast Press report Force 13 Mar 31, 2018 Israeli Air Unknown Mid-flight Beit Yahoun, Press report Force Lebanon 14 Mar 22, 2018 Indian Navy Heron-1 Take-off phase Gujarat, India Press report 15 Feb 12, 2018 Turkey Bayraktar Mid-flight Efrin, Syria Press report (shot down?) 16 Feb 10, 2018 Iran? Syria? Unknown Shot down Israel Press report
2017 17 Dec 2017 Indian Air Heron-1 Mid-flight Tibet Press report Force 18 Nov 21.2017 Indian Navy Searcher II Take-off phase Kichi, India Press report 19 Oct 1, 2017 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight Yemen Press report (shot down?) 20 Sep 4, 2017 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Classified USAF Investigation (lost-link) 21 Aug 21, 2017 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight South-eastern USAF Investigation (electronics failure) Turkey Press report 22 Aug 17, 2017 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight (electrical Classified USAF Investigation fail) (Turkey?) Press report 38 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen
No. Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location Details 23 Jun 21, 2017 US Air Force RQ-4B Global Mid-flight California USAF Investigation Hawk (electronics failure) 24 Jun 20, 2017 Iran? Syria? Shahed-129 Shot down Syria Press report 25 Jun 8, 2017 Iran? Syria? Shahed-129? Shot down Syria Press report 26 May 6, 2017 US Air Force MQ-9A Reaper Mid-flight (lost link) Classified USAF Investigation 27 May 2, 2017 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight New Mexico, Press report USA 28 Mar 24 2017 UK Army Watchkeeper Mid-flight Irish Sea Service Inquiry Press report 29 Mar 3, 2017 US Air Force Unknown ? Bagram, Press report Afghanistan 30 Feb 3, 2017 UK Army Watchkeeper Mid-flight Irish Sea Service Inquiry Press report
2016 31 Nov 29, 2016 French Army Spewer SDTI Mid-flight Meusien, France Press report 32 Oct 9, 2016 Turkey Anka Mid-flight Turkey Press report 33 Sep 26, 2016 Pakistan Falco Mid-flight Mianwali, Press report Pakistan 34 Aug 24, 2016 Turkey Bayraktar TB2 Mid-flight Sanliurfa, Turkey Press report 35 July 5, 2016 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight Syria USAF Investigation (mechanical failure) Press report 36 Jun 18, 2016 Pakistan Wing Loong I Mid-flight Punjab, Pakistan Press report 37 Jun 7, 2016 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Take-off phase (crew Nevada, USA USAF Investigation error) 38 May 31, 2016 Piaggio Aero Hammerhead Mid-flight Off Sicily Press report 39 May 16, 2016 Iran? Syria? Shahed-123 Mid-flight Syria Press report (shot down) 40 Mar 18, 2016 Indian Navy Heron Mid-flight Kerala, India Press report 41 Mar 8, 2016 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight (lost link) Classified USAF Investigation 42 Feb 21 2016 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing Kandahar, Press report Afghanistan 43 Feb 2 2016 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Landing (Lost link) Adana, Turkey USAF Investigation Press report 44 Jan 30 2016 Pakistan Unknown Mid-flight Sargodha, Press report Pakistan 45 Jan 07 2016 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight Al-Qaim, Iraq USAF Investigation (pilot error) Press report Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 39
No. Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location Details 2015 46 Dec 29 2015 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing Djibouti WaPo FoI (mechanical failure) 47 Nov 24 2015 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing (crew error) Bagram. USAF Investigation Afghanistan Press report 48 Nov 20 2015 Indian Army Nishant Mid-flight Rajasthan, India Press report 49 Nov 18, 2015 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Take-off phase Kandahar, USAF Investigation (engine failure) Afghanistan 50 Nov 8 2015 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight Near Ali Al Salem USAF Investigation (mechanical trouble) air base, Kuwait Press report 51 Nov 4, 2015 US Army MQ-1 Gray Eagle Mid-flight Kabul, Press report Afghanistan 52 Nov 4 2015 Indian Army Nishant Mid-flight Rajasthan, India Press report 53 Nov 2 2015 UK Army Watchkeeper Landing Salisbury, UK Inquiry report (software failure) Press report 54 Oct 19 2015 Unknown Unknown Mid-flight Marib, Yemen Press report 55 Oct 19 2015 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight Southern Turkey Press report (Mechanical failure) 56 Oct 17, 2015 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight (Weather) Kut, Iraq USAF Investigation Press report 57 Sep 24 2015 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight (Weather) Derna, Libya USAF Investigation Press report 58 Sep 18 2015 Pakistan Falco Mid-flight Sargodha, Press report Pakistan 59 Aug 31 2015 US Army MQ1 Gray Eagle Landing Afghanistan WaPo FoI (electrical failure) 60 Aug 31 2015 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight Afghanistan WaPo FoI 61 Aug 11 2015 Iranian Air Shahed-129 Mid-flight Iran/Pakistan Press report Force border 62 Jul 16 2015 US Army MQ-1C Gray Mid-flight (lost link) Southern Iraq Press report Eagle 63 Jul 11 2015 Israeli Air Hermes 450 Mid-flight Lebanon Press report Force 64 Jul 5 2015 UAE Air Force Seeker 200 Mid-flight (shot Yemen Press report down?) 65 Jun 28 2015 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight Kandahar, WaPo FoI Afghanistan 66 Jun 22 2015 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight Southeast Iraq USAF press release 67 Jun 21 2015 Israeli Air Unknown Mid-flight Lebanon Press report Force 68 Jun 7 2015 US Army MQ-1C Gray Mid-flight Afghanistan WaPo FoI Eagle 40 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen
No. Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location Details 69 May 27 2015 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight (electrical Off coast WaPo FoI failure) Djibouti 70 May 27 2015 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight (engine Southern Iraq USAF Investigation failure) Press report 71 May 18 2015 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper ? Kandahar, USAF Investigation Afghanistan 72 May 5 2015 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper ? Classified USAF Investigation 73 May 1 2015 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight Nevada, US USAF press release (mechanical failure) 74 Apr 28, 2015 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Take-off phase (lost Classified USAF Investigation link) 75 Apr 5 2015 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight Off coast WaPo FoI (electrical failure) Djibouti 76 Mar 17 2015 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Shot down Latakia, Syria USAF report 77 Mar 1 2015 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Kandahar, USAF Investigation (electrical failure) Afghanistan 78 Mar 2015 Iranian Air Shahed-129? Mid-flight Khurmatoo, Iraq Press report Force 79 Feb 4 2015 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight Off coast Africa USAF Investigation (electrical failure) 80 Jan 26 2015 Nigeria CASC CH-3 Mid-flight Borno, Nigeria Press report 81 Jan 23 2015 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Take-off phase New Mexico, US Press report 82 Jan 09 2015 Indian Air Heron-1 Mid-flight Barmer, India Press report Force (mechanical failure)
2014 83 Dec 12 2014 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight Classified USAF Investigation (electrical failure) 84 Dec 11 2014 US Air Force MQ-9A Reaper Landing (pilot error) Nevada, US USAF Investigation 85 Dec 03 2014 US Army MQ-5B Hunter Landing Georgia, US WaPo FoI 86 Nov 26 2014 Indian Air Heron-1 Mid-flight Kutch, India Press report Force 87 Oct 20 2014 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing (pilot error) Niamey, Niger Press report 88 Oct 20 2014 UN Falco Take-off phase DR Congo Press report 89 Oct 16, 2014 UK Army Watchkeeper Landing Aberporth, UK MAA inquiry report (software failure) 90 Sep 23 2014 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Yemen Press report (mechanical failure) 91 Sep 17 2014 US Air Force Unknown Mid-flight Afghanistan Press report 92 Sep 10 2014 US Army MQ-1C Gray Mid-flight Afghanistan WaPo FoI Eagle (mechanical failure) Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 41
No. Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location Details 93 Aug 18 2014 US Army MQ-1B Warrior Landing Afghanistan WaPo FoI (engine failure) 94 Aug 03 2014 US Army MQ-1B Warrior Mid-flight Afghanistan WaPo FoI 95 Jul 14 2014 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Afghanistan USAF Investigation (engine failure) 96 Jun 27 2014 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Nevada, US USAF Investigation (mechanical failure) 97 Jun 25 2014 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Jalalabad, USAF Investigation (mechanical failure) Afghanistan 98 Jun 23 2014 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Afghanistan USAF Investigation (engine failure) 99 Jun 16, 2014 US Army MQ-1C Gray Landing Afghanistan WaPo FoI Eagle 100 Apr 26 2014 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Afghanistan USAF Investigation (engine failure) 101 Apr 04 2014 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Landing (pilot error) US, Nevada USAF Investigation 102 Feb 25 2014 US Air Force MQ-9A Reaper ? Classified WaPo FoI 103 Feb 16 2014 US Army MQ-1C Gray Taxiing Afghanistan WaPo FoI Eagle 104 Feb 2014 Iran Shahed-123 Mid-flight Iran Press report 105 Jan 28 2014 US DHS MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight California, US Press Report (mechanical failure) 106 Jan17 2014 Ecuador Navy Searcher II Mid-flight Ecuador Press Report (engine failure) 107 Jan 17 2014 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Off Libya coast USAF Investigation (mechanical failure) 108 Jan 15 2014 UN Falco Landing DR Congo Press Report 109 Jan 15 2014 US Air Force MQ-9A Reaper Mid-flight Yemen Press Report
2013 110 Dec 13 2013 Indian Army Heron-1 Landing Tamil Nadu, Press Report India 111 Dec 06 2013 Turkey Air Anka Mid-flight Turkey Press Report Force 112 Nov 14 2013 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing Nevada, USA Press Report 113 Nov 13 2013 US Army MQ-5B Hunter Take-off phase Afghanistan WaPo FoI 114 Nov 12 2013 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight Lake Ontario, USAF Investigation (electronics failure) USA 115 Oct 30 2013 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight New Mexico, US Press report 116 Oct 24 2013 US Navy MQ-8B Fire Scout Landing Maryland, US WaPo FoI 117 Oct 16 2013 US Army MQ-1C Gray Landing Afghanistan WaPo FoI Eagle 42 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen
No. Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location Details 118 Oct 08 2013 Israeli Air Hermes 450 Mid-flight Israel Press report Force (engine failure) 119 Oct 4, 2013 UK Army Hermes 450 Landing Afghanistan FoI 120 Sep 23 2013 US Army MQ-1C Gray Mid-flight Afghanistan WaPo FoI Eagle (engine failure) 121 Sept 17 2013 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight (lost link) Off coast of Sicily WaPo FoI 122 Sep 5, 2013 UK Army Hermes 450 ? Afghanistan FoI 123 Aug 14 2013 US Army MQ-1B Warrior Mid-flight (lost link) Afghanistan WaPo FoI 124 July 24 2013 US Army MQ-1C Gray Landing (engine Afghanistan WaPo FoI Eagle failure) 125 July 23 2013 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing New Mexico, Press Report USA 126 July 14 2013 Israeli Air Hermes 450 Mid-flight Israel/Egypt Press Report Force border 127 Jun 27 2013 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Landing Afghanistan USAF Investigation (mechanical failure) 128 June 5 2013 US Marines K-Max Mid-flight Afghanistan Press Report 129 May 27 2013 US S-100 Camcopter Mid-flight Somalia Press Report 130 May 13 2013 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight (electrical Nevada, USA USAF Investigation failure) 131 May 11 2013 Israeli Air Heron-1 Mid-flight (engine Israel Press Report Force failure) 132 May 11 2013 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight Afghanistan WaPo FoI (mechanical failure) 133 Apr 9, 2013 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight Mali Press Report (mechanical failure) 134 Apr 5 2013 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight (weather) Gulf of Aden WaPo FoI 135 Mar 29 2013 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Afghanistan WaPo FoI (lightning strike) 136 Mar 2 2013 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Afghanistan USAF Investigation (electronics failure) 137 2013 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator ? Classified WaPo FoI
2012 138 Dec 21 2012 Pakistan Unknown Mid-flight Pakistan Press Report 139 Dec 13 2012 US Navy MQ-8B Fire Scout Landing Off Libyan coast WaPo FoI (mechanical failure) 140 Dec 5 2012 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight Nevada, US USAF Investigation (crew error) 141 Nov 14 2012 US Army MQ-1C Gray Mid-flight Afghanistan WaPo FoI Eagle (engine failure) Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 43
No. Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location Details 142 Oct 26 2012 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight Afghanistan USAF Investigation (mechanical failure) 143 Oct 11 2012 US Army MQ-1C Gray Landing Afghanistan WaPo FoI Eagle (engine failure) 144 Sept 27 2012 Turkey Air Anka Mid-flight (lost link) Turkey Press report Force 145 Sept 25 2012 US Army MQ-1C Gray Landing Afghanistan WaPo FoI Eagle (engine failure) 146 Sept 18 2012 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight (lost link) Iraq USAF Investigation 147 Aug 22 2012 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight Afghanistan USAF Investigation (electrical failure) 148 July 25 2012 US Air Force MQ 1C Gray Eagle Taxiing Arizona, US Press Report / GA / MQ-1 Predator 149 July 24 2012 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Take-off phase Afghanistan USAF Investigation (pilot error) 150 July 22, 2012 UK Army Hermes 450 ? destroyed Afghanistan FoI 151 July 20 2012 US Army MQ-1C Gray Landing Afghanistan WaPo FoI Eagle 152 July 11 2012 US Army MQ-1C Gray Take-off phase Afghanistan WaPo FoI Eagle 153 July 7 2012 US Army MQ-1C Gray Landing Afghanistan WaPo FoI Eagle (engine failure) 154 Jun 11 2012 US Navy RQ-4A BAMS Mid-flight Maryland, USA Navy press release (mechanical failure) 155 May 19 2012 Pakistan Falco Mid-flight Pakistan Press Report army 156 May 10 2012 Schiebel Schiebel S-100 Mid-flight South Korea Press Report 157 Apr 17, 2012 US Army A160T Mid-flight California, US Press report Hummingbird (Mechanical failure) 158 April 14 2012 US Air Force MQ1-B Predator Mid-flight (engine Afghanistan USAF Investigation failure) 159 April 6 2012 US Navy MQ-8B Fire Scout Mid-flight Afghanistan WaPo FoI (electronics failure) 160 April 4 2012 US Air Force MQ-9A Reaper Take-off phase Seychelles USAF Investigation (pilot error) 161 Mar 31 2012 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Classified WaPo FoI 162 Mar 31 2012 UK Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing (pilot error) Afghanistan FoI 163 Mar 30 2012 US Navy MQ-8B Fire Scout Landing (lost link) off West Africa WaPo FoI 164 Mar 21 2012 US Army MQ-1B Warrior Mid-flight (lost link) Afghanistan WaPo FoI 165 Feb 25 2012 US Air Force Unknown Mid-flight Pakistan Press Report 166 Feb 21 2012 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Djibouti USAF Investigation (mechanical failure) 44 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen
No. Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location Details 167 Feb 16 2012 Indian Navy Searcher II Mid-flight India Press Report 168 Feb 14 2012 US Air Force MQ1-B Predator Landing Afghanistan USAF Investigation (electrical failure) 169 Jan 30 2012 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Landing Afghanistan USAF Investigation (mechanical failure) 170 Jan 29 2012 Israeli Air Heron TP Mid-flight Israel Press Report Force (mechanical failure) 171 2012 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Classified WaPo FoI 172 2012 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Classified WaPo FoI
2011 173 Dec 27 2011 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Afghanistan Press Report (engine failure) 174 Dec 13 2011 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Take-off phase Seychelles USAF Investigation (electrical fail) 175 Dec 4 2011 US Air Force/ MQ-170 Sentinel Mid-flight Iran Press Report CIA 176 Nov 11, 2011 Germany Heron-1 Mid-flight (lost link) Afghanistan Press report 177 Oct 7 2011 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing New Mexico WaPo FoI 178 Oct 2 2011 UK Army Hermes 450 Landing Afghanistan MAA Investigation (engine failure) 179 Sep 22 2011 US Army MQ-1B Warrior Mid-flight Afghanistan WaPo FoI (engine failure) 180 Sep 11 2011 US Air Force Unknown ? Somalia Press Report 181 Aug 24 2011 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing New Mexico, US WaPo FoI 182 Aug 24 2011 China Wing Loong I Mid-flight China Press Report 183 Aug 21 2011 US Air Force RQ-4 Global Mid-flight Afghanistan Press Report Hawk (electrical failure) 184 Aug 20 2011 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Afghanistan USAF Investigation (mechanical failure) 185 Jul 19 2011 Pakistan GIDS Uqab Mid-flight Pakistan Press report Navy (bird strike) 186 July 10 2011 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight (lost link) Afghanistan USAF Investigation 187 Jun 28 2011 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight (weather) Afghanistan ISAF report 188 June 5 2011 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Afghanistan USAF Investigation (lightning strike) 189 May 20 2011 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Take-off phase Nevada, US WaPo FoI 190 May 17 2011 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Landing Djibouti USAF Investigation (electronics failure) 191 May 7 2011 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Djibouti Press Report (electrical failure) Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 45
No. Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location Details 192 May 5 2011 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Landing Afghanistan USAF Investigation (engine failure) 193 May 1 2011 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight Afghanistan UASF Investigation (mechanical failure) 194 Apr 1 2011 US Aero Global Observer 1 Mid-flight California Press report Vironment 195 Mar 16 2011 US Army MQ-1C Gray Mid-flight California, US WaPo FoI Eagle 196 Mar 15 2011 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Landing Djibouti WaPo FoI (mechanical failure) 197 Mar 4 2011 Turkey Air Heron -1 Mid-flight Turkey Press Report Force (mechanical failure) 198 Feb 8 2011 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight Yemen Press Report 199 Feb 7 2011 US Army MQ-5B Hunter Mid-flight Iraq WaPo FoI (pilot error) 200 Jan 14 2011 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight Djibouti USAF Investigation (engine failure) 201 Jan 3 2011 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Kandahar, USAF Investigation (electrical failure) Afghanistan
2010 202 Dec 2010 Germany Heron-1 Mid-flight Afghanistan Press report (engine failure) 203 Dec 9 2010 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Landing (pilot error) Kandahar USAF Investigation 204 Nov 02 2010 US Army MQ-5B Hunter Take-off phase Afghanistan WaPo FoI (lost link) 205 Oct 28 2010 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing New Mexico, US Press Report 206 Oct 22 2010 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Landing New Mexico, US Press Report 207 Oct 17 2010 US Army MQ-5B Hunter Landing Afghanistan WaPo FoI 208 Sep 19 2010 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Kabul USAF Investigation (mechanical failure) 209 Sep 4, 2010 US Army A160T Landing Belize Press report Hummingbird (electronics failure 210 Aug 31 2010 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight US California WaPo FoI (pilot error) 211 Aug 18 2010 US Army MQ-1B Warrior Mid-flight (lost link) Iraq WaPo FoI – not recovered 212 Aug 16 2010 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Iraq USAF Investigation (pilot error) 213 Jul 28 2010 US Army A160T Mid-fight (pilot error) California, US Press Report Hummingbird 214 Jul 28 2010 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Take-off phase New Mexico, US USAF Investigation (lost link) 46 | Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen
No. Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location Details 215 Jul 16 2010 Australian Heron-1 Landing Canada Press Report Air Force (software failure) 216 June 4 2010 Australian Heron-1 Landing Afghanistan Press Report Air Force 217 June 3, 2010 UK Army Hermes 450 ? Destroyed Afghanistan FoI 218 May 21, 2010 UK Army Hermes 450 ? Destroyed Afghanistan FoI 219 May 14 2010 US Army MQ-5B Hunter Landing (weather) Iraq WaPo FoI 220 May 2, 2010 UK Air Force MQ-9 Reaper ? Afghanistan FoI 221 Apr 20 2010 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Landing (pilot error) US, California USAF Investigation 222 Mar 17, 2010 Germany Heron-1 Taxing Mazar-i-Sharif, Press report Afghanistan 223 Mar 14 2010 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Afghanistan Press report 224 Feb 13 2010 US Army MQ-5B Hunter Take-off phase Afghanistan WaPo FoI 225 Feb 09 2010 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator ? Afghanistan Press Report 226 Jan 24 2010 US Air Force Unknown Mid-flight Afghan/Pakistan Press Report 227 Jan 15 2010 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Afghanistan WaPo FoI press (pilot error) 228 Jan 13 2010 Italian Air MQ-1B Mid-flight (lost link) Off Italian coast Press Report Force Predator A
2009 229 Dec 13 2009 US Army MQ-5B Hunter Take-off phase Afghanistan Wikileaks War Logs (engine fai) WaPo FoI 230 Nov 20 2009 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Afghanistan USAF Investigation (electrical failure) 231 Nov 14 2009 US Army MQ-1B Warrior Mid-flight Afghanistan Wikileaks War Logs WaPo FoI 232 Oct 3 2009 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Afghanistan USAF Investigation (pilot error) 233 Sep 14 2009 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Iraq Wikileaks War Log (electrical failure) WaPo FoI 234 Sep 13 2009 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight (lost link) Afghanistan Press Report 235 Sep 11 2009 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Take-off phase New Mexico, US WaPo FoI 236 Sep 04 2009 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Afghanistan Wikileaks War Logs (mechanical failure) 237 Aug 22 2009 US Army MQ-5B Hunter Mid-flight Iraq WaPo FoI (engine failure) 238 Aug 13 2009 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Iraq USAF Investigation (mechanical failure) 239 Aug 12 2009 US Army I-GNAT Mid-flight Iraq Wikileaks War Logs Drone Wars UK | Accidents Will Happen | 47
No. Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location Details 240 July 04 2009 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing Afghanistan Wikileaks War Logs WaPo FoI 241 Jun 12 2009 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator ? Nevada, US WaPo FoI 242 Jun 02 2009 UK Army Hermes 450 Mid-flight (engine Afghanistan Wikileaks War Logs failure) FoI 243 May 28 2009 US Air Force RQ-4 Global Mid-flight California, US WaPo FoI Hawk 244 May 13 2009 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight (lost link) Afghanistan USAF Investigation 245 May 08 2009 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Afghanistan USAF Investigation (mechanical failure) 246 Apr 28 2009 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Take-off phase Nevada. US USAF Investigation (mechanical) 247 Apr 21 2009 US Army MQ-5B Hunter Landing (lost link) Iraq WaPo FoI 248 Apr 20 2009 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Afghanistan USAF Investigation (electrical failure) 249 Apr 10 2009 US Army MQ-5B Hunter Mid-flight (lost link) Georgia, US WaPo FoI 250 Mar 20 2009 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight California, US USAF Investigation (engine failure) 251 Mar 14 2009 Canada SPERWER Mid-flight Afghanistan Wikileaks War Logs 252 Feb 22 2009 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Iraq Wikileaks War Logs (electrical failure) WaPo FoI 253 Feb 08 2009 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Afghanistan WaPo FoI (engine failure) 254 2009 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper ? Classified WaPo FoI