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From Revolution to Realpolitik: Iran's Foreign Policy in Central Asia and the South Caucasus Since 1991 William Jerry Johnston Jr

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From Revolution to Realpolitik: Iran's Foreign Policy in Central Asia and the South Caucasus Since 1991 William Jerry Johnston Jr Florida State University Libraries Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations The Graduate School 2007 From Revolution to Realpolitik: Iran's Foreign Policy in Central Asia and the South Caucasus since 1991 William Jerry Johnston Jr. Follow this and additional works at the FSU Digital Library. For more information, please contact [email protected] THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES FROM REVOLUTION TO REALPOLITIK: IRAN’S FOREIGN POLICY IN CENTRAL ASIA AND THE SOUTH CAUCASUS SINCE 1991 By WILLIAM JERRY JOHNSTON, JR. A Thesis submitted to the Department of International Affairs in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts Degree Awarded: Spring Semester, 2007 The members of the Committee approve the thesis of William Jerry Johnston, Jr. defended on April 4, 2007. ________________________ Peter Garretson Professor Directing Thesis ________________________ Jonathan Grant Committee Member ________________________ Mark Souva Committee Member The Office of Graduate Studies has verified and approved the above named committee members. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS My most sincere thanks go to Dr. Asbed Kotchikian for his tireless dedication, helpful insight, and kind direction. Without his help this paper would not have been written. Many thanks also to Mom, Dad, and Kendra for their support of whatever I choose to do and wherever I choose to go in life. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract …………..……………………………………………………………………. v INTRODUCTION ……………………………………………………………………. 1 1. IRAN’S SECURITY POLICY IN CENTRAL ASIA AND THE SOUTH CAUCASUS …….…………………………………………………………………… 4 Iran’s Ideological Warfare …………………………………………………… 6 Soviet Disintegration and New Realities …………………………………….. 10 Armenia and Azerbaijan: Iran’s Experience in the South Caucasus …………. 12 Religion and Atheism Collide in Central Asia: the Iranian Response to Tajikistan’s Civil War ……………………………………………………….. 14 The “Other” Neighbor to the North: Russia’s Impact on Iranian Security Policy …………………………………………………………………………. 16 Energy, Economy, and Security Converge in Iran …………………………… 19 Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………. 21 2. IRAN’S ECONOMIC POLICY IN THE FORMER SOVIET SOUTH …………. 23 Iran, Iraq, and the Emergence of Economic Importance …………………….. 25 Economic Development in Central Asia and the South Caucasus …………... 27 Energy and Economy in Iran ………………………………………………… 30 The Politics of Energy ……………………………………………………….. 31 The Caspian Sea: Convergence or Conflict? ………………………………... 33 The ECO – an Iranian Pipe Dream? ………………………………………… 38 Russian Interests and Iranian Response ……………………………………... 40 Conclusion ………………………………………………………………….. 42 3. IRANIAN CULTURAL POLICY IN CENTRAL ASIA AND THE SOUTH CAUCASUS ………………………………………………………………………... 44 The Failures of the Islamic Revolution ……………………………………... 46 Cultural Cautiousness ……………………………………………………….. 48 The Soviet Cultural Legacy …………………………………………………. 49 Culture and Nationalism in the Former Soviet South ……………………….. 51 Islam in Central Asia and the South Caucasus ……………………………… 52 Why not Revolutionary Islam in the Former Soviet South? ………………… 54 If not Revolutionary Islam, then What? ……………………………………... 58 Regionalism and Iranian Culture ……………………………………………. 61 Conclusion …………………………………………………………………… 62 CONCLUSION ……………………………………………………………………… 64 SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY ...…………………………………………………… 67 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH ………………………………………………………… 71 iv ABSTRACT Iran’s foreign policy in Central Asia and the South Caucasus since 1991 serves to show Tehran’s foreign policy shift from revolutionary Islam to realpolitik. The Islamic Republic’s failure to export the Islamic Revolution as well as economic troubles precipitated by the Iran-Iraq War led Tehran to act with more pragmatism in its foreign policy endeavors after Soviet Union disintegration. The shift to realpolitik reflects Iran’s failure to support revolutionary Islam in Tajikistan as well as tacit support for Armenia instead of Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. This paper examines the strong role power politics now play in Iran’s foreign policy at the expense of revolutionary Islam, particularly with regards to its relationships with Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Russia. v INTRODUCTION The Islamic Republic of Iran and its foreign policy have been of significant interest to policymakers and political theorists alike worldwide since the tumultuous Islamic Revolution that took place in 1979. After the invasion of Iraq and the subsequent sectarian violence spreading throughout that nation, Iran has become the subject of demonization as well as inquiry from both the hardliners and the curious in Western media and governments. Many questions have been circulating around these Western circles. Is Iran advocating violence and instability in the region, or is it simply misunderstood? Does the Islamic Republic seek to establish an Islamic government in her neighbors and consolidate power through religious means? How will Iran’s nuclear energy endeavors affect the West, and is Tehran actively seeking nuclear armament? While this paper does not directly address all of these questions and issues, it does seek to find a particular example of the use of Iranian foreign policy in order to help characterize Tehran’s objectives in geopolitics and to provide a Western audience with an assessment of the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy in the former Soviet south.1 Foreign policy matters, particularly for a country as complex as the Islamic Republic of Iran, are certainly not written in any codified manual for with a Western audience in mind. Scholars are left with little choice but to observe historical actions taken (or not taken) by the Islamic Republic coupled with government statements with relation to other countries in order to evaluate and predict current Iranian foreign policy. The decision-making process in terms of domestic actors and individuals for foreign policy in Iran is highly confusing, and well outside the capabilities of this paper. Therefore, this paper does not attempt to approach Iran’s foreign policy from the pluralist international relations theory, which is highly dependent upon characterization of key leaders and decision-makers as well as the decision-making process. Instead, this paper approaches Iranian foreign policy from the realist international relations theory, surmising that Iran’s actions in its foreign policy are made by the state as a unified rational actor acting in its own Machiavellian self-interests. 1 The former Soviet south is comprised of the Central Asian and South Caucasian nations that were once part of the USSR and include Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 1 This paper therefore argues that in the particular context of Iranian foreign policy in Central Asia and the South Caucasus since 1991, Tehran’s decisions have shifted away from the revolutionary Islamic rhetoric2 that characterized its geopolitical stance immediately after the ousting of the Shah in 1979 and toward pragmaticism and decision- making based on realpolitik.3 Furthermore, regionalism4 has been the primary tool that Iran has used in its foreign policy relations with regard to Central Asia and the South Caucasus. To that end, this paper addresses Iranian foreign policy in the former Soviet south in its three most distinguishable facets: security policy, economic/energy policy, and cultural policy. These facets are far from being mutually exclusive; decisions made in one category can and do affect issues in another. While the paper’s approach to understanding Iranian foreign policy categorically separates these facets, every attempt has been made to explain the complex interdependence of the three categories. The first chapter of this paper addresses Iran’s security policy. It shows that the Islamic Republic’s primary concern in its foreign policy in the former Soviet south is its own security. This concern stems from Iran’s experience with its war with Iraq from 1980-1988, and the subsequent aftermath. Examples of Iran’s foreign policy pragmatism in the region are shown through its lack of support for Azerbaijan in the Nagorno- Karabakh conflict as well as its support for ex-communist leaders in Tajikistan. Tehran’s actions are further explained by its complex and seemingly subservient regional relations with Russia, as well as connections made between Iran’s security and pursuit of nuclear technology. The second chapter of this paper takes a look at Iranian energy and economic policy. Economic difficulties that occurred as a result of the Iran-Iraq War led to a government policy of economic liberalization, which opened more resources for the Islamic Republic to use in obtaining regional influence in Central Asia and the South 2 The term “revolutionary Islam” is based on the principles set forward by Ayatollah Khomeini in his book Islamic Government, available in English in Hamid Algar, Islam and Revolution: Writings and Declarations of Imam Khomeini (Berkeley, California: Mizan Press, 1981), 27-166. 3 The use of the word “pragmatic” necessitates dependence on realist international theory, and that Iran is indeed acting in its own self-interests. Realpolitik is, of course, politics based on power rather than ideology. “Pragmatic” is the term used in contrast with the concept of “revolutionary Islam.” 4 I define regionalism as an attempt to garner and wield geopolitical power and influence in a particular part of the world (in the case of Iran, the former Soviet south). 2 Caucasus. However, much of the Iranian
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