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Opened up a Number of Future Studies Including: - Enforcement Vs THE TOP 100 FATAL EARTHQUAKES: EXAMINING FATALITY RISK REDUCTION GLOBALLY WITH RESPECT TO SEISMIC CODE IMPLEMENTATION 1 4 2 3 James E. DANIELL 0F , Antonios POMONIS , Hing-Ho TSANG1F , Friedemann WENZEL 2F , Rashmin GUNASEKERA5, Andreas SCHAEFER6 ABSTRACT The residual risk left through existing buildings of low earthquake resistance, governs the level of safety of the citizens in the case of extreme events. Since 1900 there have been more than 2200 earthquakes that have caused loss of life around the world, but the 100 most fatal events have caused around 93% of the total life losses and are examined to learn lessons. Recent events in some countries with significantly lower death tolls than in the top 100 list of fatal events are also examined with respect to seismic code implementation in order to gain understanding on the empirical reduction of fatality risk through code implementation and adherence. An updated global seismic code index has been proposed, examining the changes to all the countries since the worldwide seismic code index and building practice factor were published by Daniell et al. (2014). This has been built in conjunction with a compendium of casualty estimation methodologies globally. A presentation of global fatalities from earthquakes and the relative fatality risk compared to other death types was presented by Daniell et al. (2017). In this paper, by comparing the seismic code index (SCI), the top 100 events and F-N curves, a few initial examples are shown and the basis for further studies in the field of residual risk analysis for earthquake fatalities is provided. Keywords: earthquake fatalities; F-N function; global; residual risk; seismic codes 1. INTRODUCTION Since 1900 there have been more than 2200 fatal earthquakes around the world, causing the loss of around 2.3 million lives. The Top 100 fatal events have caused over 93% of the fatalities globally (2.14 million deaths). The event cut-off is around 1600 fatalities. This is an important statement, as we begin to realise the importance of building collapse prevention for major events hitting urban centers and the need to protect citizens against extreme events death tolls occurring. A large range of death toll estimates is present in the literature as shown by the global range of 1.45 million to 3.66 million for the top 100 events since 1900. Over the past 15 years, the CATDAT database is constantly developed and maintained (Daniell et al., 2011), incorporating over 33,000 sources in 90 languages globally, to validate, estimate and check death tolls. This effort amalgamates many individual records, often showing a large range of quoted values for death tolls (both accurately and inaccurately). The Pomonis database of fatal earthquakes and consequences details many events with clear focus on the larger events with use within the GEMECD and other databases globally (Pomonis et al., 2009; So et al., 2012). The major focus within the database comes from investigating official and unofficial death tolls in some depth for big events where the official toll is not available or doubtful. The amalgamation of the two databases to arrive at a common joint list of the top 100 events has been undertaken with many discussions of events made over the last few years between Daniell and Pomonis and in the framework of this paper. This represents a significant step forward to hopefully rectify published errors. 1Natural Hazards Risk Engineer, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, [email protected] 2Senior Lecturer (Structures), Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Australia, [email protected] 3Emeritus Professor, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, [email protected] 4Cambridge Architectural Research, Ltd., [email protected] 5World Bank, Social, Urban and Rural Development, and Resilience, [email protected] 6Doctoral Candidate, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, [email protected] 2. RECTIFYING THE TOP 100 EVENTS SINCE 1900 Many errors exist in databases currently around the world regarding earthquake fatalities. These have often been propagated by errors in the original databases such as OFDA in the case of the EM-DAT database, or simply not using updated values. In addition and especially for events prior to about 1995 (advent of the world wide web) there are often several possible death tolls per event (e.g. Utsu, 1990; Utsu, 2002) and furthermore some mega-death events (loss of life greater than 10,000) such as the 1948 Ashgabat, 1988 Armenia, 2010 Haiti, etc. for which uncertainty on the actual death toll is significant. By rectifying the top 100 events, we propose the preferred death toll and approximate % of deaths due to shaking (related to building collapse) for these historically most important events, as well as an upper and lower value (through the amalgamation of the databases and discussion). Also the “all literature” upper and lower values (not necessarily correct) are also shown (see Table 1). There are 34 countries primarily affected by these 100 events, plus a number of other countries also affected by damage or even loss of life (as indicated). Of the Top 100 events, nearly 30% of the fatalities were caused by secondary hazards, reminding us of the need for better tsunami, landslide and fire prevention. In 11 of the Top-100 events the deaths were almost exclusively due to tsunami, in 3 events the majority of the deaths were due to landslides and related hazards and in 2 events they were overwhelmingly due to fire following. Large strides have been made since the 2004 Indian Ocean and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in characterizing, quantifying tsunami vulnerability and risk and give timely warnings of tsunamis. Nearly 59% of the global life losses since 1900 have occurred due to the top 10 events, with 43% of the joint fatalities of these 10 events caused by secondary hazards. It is interesting to note that only five of the Top- 100 events occurred in Europe (bold and underlined), 4 in Italy and 1 in Romania with an additional 10 events in Turkey (bold). Also interesting is that from 1900-1958, 50 events in the top 100 events occurred which is obviously exactly the same as the 1959-2017 time period (50 events). Figure 1. Locations of the top 100 events (and the 101-110th placed) ranked in descending order of fatalities. Figure 1 shows the location of the Top-110 events with the index number on the map indicating their rank. 2 Table 1. The Top 100 fatal events since 1900 as created via the combined CATDAT, Pomonis database Preferred Approx. Lower Upper Global Global Rank EQ Date Mag. Name ISO_country Toll Shaking Pref. Pref. Lower Upper 1 16/12/1920 Mw8.3 Haiyuan CHN 273400 50.0% 273400 273400 100000 273400 2 27/07/1976 Mw7.6 Tangshan CHN 242419 100.0% 240000 255000 240000 655237 3 26/12/2004 Mw9 Indian Ocean Tsunami IDN, LKA, IND, THA etc. 228194 0.5% 227898 230100 227898 297248 4 1/09/1923 Mw7.9 Great Kanto JPN 105385 10.5% 105385 143000 99331 143000 5 5/10/1948 Mw7.2 Ashgabat TKM, IRN 100000 100.0% 33000 176000 10000 176000 6 12/05/2008 Mw7.9 Sichuan CHN 88287 70.0% 88000 89000 69165 88287 7 28/12/1908 Mw7.24 Messina ITA 85926 97.0% 80000 90000 46869 200000 8 8/10/2005 Mw7.6 Kashmir PAK, IND, AFG 81000 67.3% 74648 87367 60361 87367 9 12/01/2010 Mw7 Haiti HTI 80000 100.0% 70000 167082 46000 316000 10 31/05/1970 Mw7.9 Ancash PER 66794 60.0% 52000 96794 52000 100000 11 20/06/1990 Mw7.4 Manjil-Rudbar IRN, AZE 45000 99.0% 40000 50000 30000 50000 12 22/05/1927 Mw7.7 Gansu CHN 41420 97.6% 40900 45000 35495 200000 13 30/05/1935 Mw8.1 Quetta PAK 40000 99.0% 40000 50000 15000 70000 14 26/12/1939 Mw7.7 Erzincan TUR 39035 84.5% 32968 45000 23149 45000 15 13/01/1915 Mw6.99 Avezzano ITA 32610 100.0% 29978 35000 29978 35000 16 26/12/2003 Mw6.6 Bam IRN 31000 99.0% 26225 31000 26225 43000 17 25/01/1939 Mw7.7 Chillan CHL 30000 99.5% 28000 30000 5685 30000 18 7/12/1988 Mw6.7 Spitak ARM 25076 99.7% 25000 26000 25000 50000 19 4/02/1976 Mw7.5 Guatemala GTM, SLV, HND, MEX 22778 99.0% 22400 23000 22368 23000 20 11/03/2011 Mw9 Tohoku JPN 22152 17.1% 18450 22152 18450 22152 21 4/04/1905 Mw7.8 Kangra IND 20000 95.0% 18815 20000 10600 27688 22 16/09/1978 Mw7.4 Tabas-e-Golban IRN 19214 100.0% 18000 25000 15000 25000 23 17/08/1999 Mw7.6 Izmit TUR 17217 100.0% 17127 23000 17118 45000 24 15/01/1934 Mw8 Bihar NPL, IND 15772 99.3% 10700 15772 7253 15772 25 4/01/1970 Mw7.2 Tonghai CHN 15621 95.0% 15000 20000 10000 15621 26 21/10/1907 Mw7.2 Karatag TJK 14000 65.0% 12000 15000 200 40000 27 26/01/2001 Mw7.6 Bhuj IND, PAK 13823 100.0% 13823 21004 13823 21004 28 29/02/1960 Mw5.7 Agadir MAR 13100 100.0% 12000 15000 12000 20000 29 31/08/1968 Mw7.2 Great Dasht-e-Bayaz IRN 12488 100.0% 12000 15000 7000 20000 30 1/09/1962 Ms6.9 Buyin-Zahra IRN 12225 100.0% 12000 14000 10000 12225 31 10/07/1949 Mw7.6 Khait TJK 12000 2.0% 7200 18000 3500 28000 32 10/08/1931 Mw7.9 Fuyun CHN 10200 99.0% 10000 10200 300 10200 33 19/09/1985 Mw8 Mexico City MEX 10153 99.0% 9500 10500 9500 10153 34 29/09/1993 Mw6.2 Latur-Osmanabad IND 10050 100.0% 9748 11000 7601 11000 35 12/04/1921 Ml6.5 Ningxia CHN 10000 90.0% 10000 10000 10000 10000 36 25/08/1933 Mw7.3 Diexi CHN 9365 50.0% 6865 10000 2500 9365 37 25/04/2015 Mw7.8 Nepal NPL 9055 94.5% 9055 9055 9055 9055 38 15/01/1944 Mw7.1 San Juan ARG 8000 100.0% 8000 10000 1500 10000 39 23/12/1972 Ms6.2 Managua NIC 7500 100.0% 5000 11000 4000 11000 40 16/08/1976 Mw8 Moro Gulf PHL 7079 12.0% 7000 8000 3564 8000 41 22/03/1966 Mw6.8 Hebei CHN 7064 100.0% 7000 7100 1000
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