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Impacts of Climate variability on Agriculture in Kerala Gopakumar C.S Thesis submitted to the COCHIN UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE under the Faculty of Marine Sciences Department of Atmospheric Sciences COCHIN UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COCHIN, INDIA October 2011 DECLARATION I hereby declare that the thesis entitled, “Impacts of Climate variability on Agriculture in Kerala” is an authentic record of research work carried out by me under the supervision and guidance of Dr.GSLHV Prasada Rao, Professor of Agricultural Meteorology, Kerala Agricultural University and Dr.H.S.Ram Mohan, Professor of Meteorology (Retired), at the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Cochin University of Science and Technology, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the Ph.D in the Faculty of Marine Sciences and no part thereof has been presented for the award of any other degree in any University / Institute. Kochi-16 Gopakumar C.S 10.10.2011 CERTIFICATE This is to certify that this thesis entitled, “Impacts of Climate Variability on Agriculture in Kerala” is an authentic record of the research work carried out by Mr. Gopakumar C.S under our supervision and guidance at the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Cochin University of Science and Technology, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Ph.D. Degree of Cochin University of Science and Technology under the Faculty of Marine Sciences and no part thereof has been presented for the award of any degree in any University. Dr.GSLHV Prasada Rao Dr. H.S. Ram Mohan Supervising Guide Supervising Co-Guide and Associate Director of Research Professor Kerala Agricultural University Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences Thrissur-680 656 & Director (Retd.), SMS CUSAT, Kochi- 682 016 Kochi-16 10.10.2011 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my immense gratitude to my esteemed research Supervisor Dr.GSLHV Prasada Rao, Associate Director of Research and Professor of Agricultural Meteorology, Kerala Agricultural University, Vellanikkara, Thrissur for his expert guidance, constant encouragement and valuable suggestions for excellence throughout the course of this study. I would like record my sincere gratitude to Dr.H.S.Ram Mohan, my Co-Supervising Guide, Professor of Meteorology and Director, School of Marine Sciences (Retd.), Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT), Kochi for his generous support, constant encouragement, constructive guidance and inspired suggestions throughout the study period, without which the thesis could not have been completed. My sincere thanks go to AICRP on Agrometeorology, Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA), Hyderabad for financial support to AICRAM at Thrissur Centre, which made this study possible. I am thankful to the Registrar, Kerala Agricultural University, Vellanikkara, Thrissur for granting me No Objection Certificate for carrying out the research work as a part-time student of CUSAT. Thanks are also due to the Special Officer, Academy of Climate Change Education and Research (ACCER), Kerala Agricultural University, Vellanikkara, Thrissur for providing excellent computing facility and working environment. I express my sincere thanks to Dr.K.R.Santosh, Head of the Department and my Doctoral Committee Member, Department of Atmospheric Sciences (DAS), Cochin University of Science and Technology, for providing me necessary facilities during the course of my doctoral work. I express my gratitude to Dr.A.V.R Keasava Rao, Scientist, International Crops Research Institute for Semi Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Hyderabad for his various technical help and encouragement during the study period. I am indebted to Dr.C.A.Babu, Professor, and Department of Atmospheric Sciences for inspiration and suggestions during the study period. My sincere thanks are due to Dr.Venu G Nair, Lecturer, DAS, CUSAT for his generous help at all times of need in CUSAT during my doctoral study period. My special thanks go to Sri.KN Krishnakumar, Research Associate and my fellow worker at ACCER for valuable discussions during the course of study. N.Manikandan, Research Associate, Agromet Data Bank, CRIDA, Hyderabad and Sri.N.Manikandan, Research Scholar, Agro Climate Research Centre (ACRC), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University (TNAU), Coimbatore have helped me in various ways during the course of this work. My sincere thanks are due to them. I sincerely acknowledge the services rendered by Sri. Unnikrishnan Thekkepat for statistical analysis of weather crops data. I would like to express my special thanks to Dr. B. Ajith Kumar and Smt.Lincy Davis, Assistant Professors, Dept. of Agricultural Meteorology, College of Horticulture, Vellanikkara for their co- operation and encouragement. My special thanks are due to Sri.P.M.Paulose, Sri.V.N.Gopi, Sri.T.P.Gangadharan, Smt.Mini Sathish, Smt.Leelamani, Sri.T.V.Saju, Sri.Sunil and Sri.A.K.Azad, my colleagues at ACCER, KAU for their constant encouragement and support. The office and the technical staff at the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, CUSAT, and Kochi have always been very helpful during the course of this work. I would like to express my sincere thanks to all of them. The thesis could not have been completed, but for the patience and understanding of my better half Smt.Deepa and my beloved son Navaneeth. I thank them for being with me at all times of need during the course of my study. The encouragement and support from my brothers were immense during the course of work. I am deeply indebted to my beloved mother and mother-in-law for their wholehearted blessings. Finally, the Supreme consciousness enlightened me in the journey of knowledge and made to complete the work successfully. Gopakumar C.S CONTENTS Title Page…………………………………………………. i Declaration………………………………………………… ii Certificate………………………………………………….. iii Acknowledgments………………………......................... iv Contents………………………………………… vi List of Figures……………………………………………... xi List of Plates………………………………………………. xvi List of Tables……………………………………………… xvii Chapter 1: Introduction 1.1 Global climate change scenario…………………………………………….. 6 1.2 Climate change scenario in India…………………………………………… 7 1.3 Climate change scenario in Kerala…………………………………………. 8 Chapter 2 : Review of Literature 2.1 Temperature variability ……………………………………………………… 15 2.2 Rainfall variability……………………………………………………………... 16 2.3 Climate change over Kerala…………………………………………………. 21 2.3.1 Temperature…………………………………………………………………… 21 2.3.2 Rainfall…………………………………………………………………………. 21 2.4 Climate variability and food security……………………………………….. 25 2.5 Crop weather relationships………………………………………………….. 29 2.5.1 Tea…………………………………………………………………………….. 31 2.5.2 Coffee………………………………………………………………………….. 34 2.5.3 Black pepper…………………………………………………………………... 36 2.5.4 Cardamom……………………………………………………………............. 38 2.5.5 Cocoa…………………………………………………………………………... 41 2.5.6 Cashew………………………………………………………………………… 46 2.5.7 Rubber 51 Chapter 3 : Data and Methodology 3.1 Climatic data over India …………………………………………………….. 54 3.2 Climatic data over Kerala……………………………………………………. 55 3.3 Rainfall…………………………………………………………………………. 57 3.4 Potential evapotranspiration (PET)…………………………………………. 57 3.5 Water balance studies……………………………………………………….. 58 3.6 Climate variability and food security……………………………………….. 60 3.7 Climate variability and plantations across the highranges……………….. 61 3.8 Cocoa………………………………………………………………………….. 62 3.9 Cashew………………………………………………………………………… 63 3.10 Rubber…………………………………………………………………………. 64 Chapter 4 : Regional Climate change 4.1 Temperature trends over India………………………………………………. 65 4.2 Temperature projections……………………………………………………... 67 4.3 Rainfall trends over India ……………………………………………………. 69 4.4 Maximum Temperature trends across Kerala…………………………….. 71 4.4.1 Coastal zone (Lowlands)……………………………………………………. 72 4.4.2 Midlands………………………………………………………………………. 73 4.4.3 Highranges ……………………………………………………………………. 74 4.5 Minimum temperature trends across the State……………………………. 74 4.5.1 Coastal zones…………………………………………………………………. 75 4.5.2 Midlands……………………………………………………………………….. 77 4.5.3 Highranges……………………………………………………………………. 77 4.6 Mean temperature trends across the State……………………………….. 77 4.6.1 Coastal zone………………………………………………………………….. 79 4.6.2 Midlands……………………………………………………………………….. 79 4.6.3 Highranges……………………………………………………………………. 79 4.7 Trend in temperature range across the State……………………………... 80 4.7.1 Coastal zone………………………………………………………………….. 81 4.7.2 Midlands……………………………………………………………………….. 82 4.7.3 Highranges……………………………………………………………………. 82 4.8 Onset of monsoon …………………………………………………………… 84 4.9 Annual rainfall…………………………………………………………………. 85 4.10 Southwest monsoon………………………………………………………….. 86 4.11 Post monsoon…………………………………………………………………. 87 4.12 Winter…………………………………………………………………………... 88 4.13 Summer………………………………………………………………………... 88 4.14 Decadal and tri-decadal trends in rainfall across Kerala…………………. 89 4.15 Climate shifts over Kerala……………………………………………………. 92 4.16 Occurrence of climatological droughts over Kerala……………………….. 94 Chapter 5: Climate variability and food security 5.1 Impact of drought on Indian foodgrains production……………………….. 98 5.2 Climate change impacts on Indian foodgrains production………………… 103 5.3 Change in cropping pattern across Kerala…………………………………. 106 5.4 Trend in area, production and productivity of paddy in Kerala…….......... 108 5.5 Impact of heavy rainfall on paddy production in Kerala……………………. 112 5.6 Effect of unusual summer showers on paddy production in 115 Kerala during

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