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364192Fe97d2fc7ea1fcd1be119c ÊÎÌÌÅÍÒÀÐÈÈ Ñîñòîÿíèå è ïåðñïåêòèâû ýêîíîìèêè Èíäîíåçèè Åâãåíèé ÃÀÂÐÈËÅÍÊΠ1997–1998 ãã. Èíäîíåçèÿ áûëà îäíîé èç ñòðàí òóàöèÿ ñ äîëãîì è êîíöåíòðàöèåé ñîáñòâåííîñòè â  Þãî-Âîñòî÷íîé Àçèè, îêàçàâøåéñÿ â ýïèöåíòðå ýòîé ãðóïïå ñòðàí âî ìíîãîì íàïîìèíàåò ñèòóà- ôèíàíñîâîãî êðèçèñà, êîòîðûé íà÷àëñÿ íà àçèàò- öèþ â ñòðàíàõ Àçèè äâàäöàòèëåòíåé äàâíîñòè, â ñêèõ ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ðûíêàõ, à ïîòîì çàòðîíóë è Èíäîíåçèè â ÷àñòíîñòè. Ðàçëè÷íîãî ðîäà èññëåäî- Ðîññèþ.  ãîäû, ïðåäøåñòâîâàøèå ýòîìó êðèçèñó, âàíèÿ ïîêàçûâàþò, ÷òî íà ôîíå ãëîáàëüíîé ïîëè- ýêîíîìèêà Èíäîíåçèè ðîñëà òåìïàìè 7–9% â ãîä. òèêè êîëè÷åñòâåííîãî ñìÿã÷åíèÿ èìóùåñòâåííîå  1997 ã. ðîñò çàòîðìîçèëñÿ äî 4,7%, à â 1998 ã. íåðàâåíñòâî â ìèðå, â ïåðâóþ î÷åðåäü â ðàçâèòûõ ÂÂÏ ñòðàíû ñîêðàòèëñÿ íà 13,1%.  1999 ã. ðîñò ñòðàíàõ, âûðîñëî. Ìîæíî ïî-ðàçíîìó îòíîñèòüñÿ ýêîíîìèêè âîçîáíîâèëñÿ, íî ñîñòàâèë ëèøü 0,8%. ê òî÷íîñòè îöåíîê, ñâèäåòåëüñòâóþùèõ î òîì, ÷òî  ìàå 1998 ã. ýòîò êðèçèñ ïðèâåë ê îòñòàâêå ïðåçèäåí- ïðèìåðíî îäèí ïðîöåíò íàñåëåíèÿ ïëàíåòû âëà- òà Ñóõàðòî, êîòîðûé ïðàâèë ñòðàíîé áîëåå 30 ëåò. äååò ïîëîâèíîé âñåõ àêòèâîâ, íî êà÷åñòâåííàÿ Êàê è â ðÿäå äðóãèõ àçèàòñêèõ ñòðàí, ïîñòðàäàâ- êàðòèíà â öåëîì ñêëàäûâàåòñÿ ëîãè÷íûì îáðàçîì – øèõ â êðèçèñ, â Èíäîíåçèè áûëè ïðîâåäåíû îïðå- ðîñò èìóùåñòâåííîãî ðàññëîåíèÿ, ïîñêîëüêó, ïî äåëåííûå ñòðóêòóðíûå ðåôîðìû, èçìåíåíèÿ ïðî- äðóãèì îöåíêàì, ëèøü îêîëî 15% ëèêâèäíîñòè, èçîøëè è â ïîëèòè÷åñêîé ñèñòåìå, õîòÿ ïåðèîä ïî- ïðåäîñòàâëåííîé â ðàìêàõ ðàçëè÷íûõ ïðîãðàìì ëèòè÷åñêîé íåñòàáèëüíîñòè â ñòðàíå ïðîäîëæàëñÿ êîëè÷åñòâåííîãî ñìÿã÷åíèÿ, äîøëè äî ðåàëüíîé åùå íåñêîëüêî ëåò. ýêîíîìèêè. Îñòàëüíàÿ ÷àñòü öèðêóëèðóåò ìåæäó ðàçëè÷íûìè ôèíàíñîâûìè ñòðóêóðàìè, ÷òî ïî- Çà âðåìÿ ïðàâëåíèÿ ïðåçèäåíòà Ñóõàðòî ñëîæè- çâîëèëî â ðÿäå ðàçâèòûõ ñòðàí ïîäíÿòü ôîíäîâûå ëàñü äîñòàòî÷íî òèïè÷íàÿ äëÿ àâòîðèòàðíûõ ðå- èíäåêñû äî èñòîðè÷åñêèõ ìàêñèìóìîâ, íåñìîòðÿ æèìîâ ïîëèòèêî-ýêîíîìè÷åñêàÿ ñèñòåìà, â êîòî- íà äîñòàòî÷íî âÿëûé ýêîíîìè÷åñêèé ðîñò. «Áîãà- ðîé áëàãîäàðÿ òåñíûì ñâÿçÿì, ëüãîòàì è «ñîòðóä- òûå», èìåâøèå ïðèâèëåãèðîâàííûé äîñòóï ê ôè- íè÷åñòâó» ñ ãîñóäàðñòâîì ñóùåñòâåííî áîëüøå íàíñîâûì ðåñóðñàì, ïðåäîñòàâëÿâøèìñÿ â ðàìêàõ ïîëîâèíû àêòèâîâ ñòðàíû îêàçàëîñü ñêîíöåíòðè- êîëè÷åñòâåííîãî ñìÿã÷åíèÿ, ñòàëè åùå áîãà÷å ðîâàíî â ðóêàõ íåñêîëüêèõ äåñÿòêîâ ñåìåé. Àíà- âñëåäñòâèå ðîñòà öåí íà àêòèâû. ëîãè÷íàÿ êàðòèíà íàáëþäàëàñü è â Þæíîé Êîðåå ñ åå ÷åáîëÿìè, à òàêæå ðÿäå äðóãèõ ñòðàí. Ñóùå- Òàêèì îáðàçîì, èòîã êîëè÷åñòâåííîãî ñìÿã÷åíèÿ – ñòâóþò ïîõîæèå ïðèìåðû è â äðóãèõ ÷àñòÿõ ñâåòà. èíôëÿöèÿ àêòèâîâ íà ôîíå íèçêîé ïîòðåáèòåëü- Èñòîðèÿ â î÷åðåäíîé ðàç ïîêàçàëà, ÷òî òàêîãî ñêîé èíôëÿöèè. Êðàéíå íèçêèé óðîâåíü èíôëÿ- ðîäà óïðàâëåíèå àêòèâàìè, âêëþ÷àÿ èíâåñòèöèè â öèè â ðàçâèòûõ ñòðàíàõ – ñëåäñòâèå îãðàíè÷åí- îñíîâíîé êàïèòàë, â äîëãîñðî÷íîì ïëàíå îêàçûâà- íîñòè ìàññîâîãî ñïðîñà íà ôîíå ñîõðàíÿþùèõñÿ åòñÿ íåýôôåêòèâíûì. Èíâåñòèöèè, êîòîðûå ðàñ- äîëãîâûõ ïðîáëåì ó òîé ÷àñòè íàñåëåíèÿ, êîòî- òóò â òå÷åíèå ïðîäîëæèòåëüíîãî âðåìåíè çíà÷è- ðàÿ ýòè äîëãè íàêîïèëà. Ýòî â ïåðâóþ î÷åðåäü òåëüíî áûñòðåå ÂÂÏ (à èìåííî ýòî íàáëþäàëàñü â îòíîñèòñÿ ê ïðåäñòàâèòåëÿì ñðåäíåãî êëàññà â Èíäîíåçèè è äðóãèõ àçèàòñêèõ ñòàíàõ äî êðèçèñà ðàçâèòûõ ñòðàíàõ. Âÿëàÿ äèíàìèêà ñïðîñà çà- 1998 ã.), ñâèäåòåëüñòâóþò î ñòîëü æå óñòîé÷èâîì òðóäíÿåò ïðèíÿòèå èíâåñòèöèîííûõ ðåøåíèé èí- ñíèæåíèè ýôôåêòèâíîñòè ýòèõ èíâåñòèöèé. Ïðè âåñòîðàìè (òî åñòü óñëîâíûì êðóãîì áîãàòåéøåãî ýòîì íàêàïëèâàþòñÿ ôèíàíñîâûå äèñïðîïîðöèè, íàñåëåíèÿ, â ÷üèõ ðóêàõ íàõîäÿòñÿ íå òîëüêî àê- ïîñêîëüêó äëÿ ïîääåðæàíèÿ òàêîé ìîäåëè ðîñòà òèâû, ïîä çàëîã êîòîðûõ ìîæíî ïîëó÷èòü êðå- òðåáóåòñÿ âñå áîëüøå è áîëüøå çàåìíûõ ñðåäñòâ. äèòû, íî è ôèíàíñîâûå ðåñóðñû). Íåñìîòðÿ íà Ïî ìåðå íàðàñòàíèÿ ñóììû äîëãà íåîáõîäèìî âñå íàëè÷èå ôèíàíñîâûõ ðåñóðñîâ, íåîïðåäåëåííîñòü áîëüøå ôèíàíñîâûõ ðåñóðñîâ äëÿ èõ îáñëóæèâà- îòíîñèòåëüíî îæèäàåìîé äèíàìèêè ñïðîñà ñäåð- íèÿ è ïðîëîíãèðîâàíèÿ.  èòîãå äîëã ñòàíîâèòñÿ æèâàåò èíâåñòèöèè â îñíîâíîé êàïèòàë, è âñå ýòî âñå áîëåå êîðîòêèì, è íà êàêîì-òî ýòàïå ïîëó÷åíèå íå ïîçâîëÿåò ðàññ÷èòûâàòü íà óñòîé÷èâûé è äè- íîâûõ êðåäèòîâ ñòàíîâèòñÿ íåâîçìîæíûì.  ýòîì íàìè÷íûé ðîñò ìèðîâîé ýêîíîìèêè â áóäóùåì, ñìûñëå àçèàòñêèé êðèçèñ 1997–1998 ãã. áûë íå ïî êðàéíåé ìåðå, â ãðóïïå ðàçâèòûõ ñòðàí.  ñèëó òîëüêî ôèíàíñîâûì êðèçèñîì, íî è ìàêðîýêî- òîãî, ÷òî, ïî äàííûì ÌÂÔ, óðîâåíü ñîâîêóïíîãî íîìè÷åñêèì, à òàêæå èíñòèòóöèîíàëüíûì. äîëãà ðàñøèðåííîãî ïðàâèòåëüñòâà ñòðàí «Áîëü- øîé ñåìåðêè» ñîñòàâëÿåò ïðèìåðíî 120% ÂÂÏ, «Семерка больших должников» ãèïîòåòè÷åñêîå ïîâûøåíèå ïðîöåíòíûõ ñòàâîê â ðàçâèòûõ ñòðàíàõ (åñëè îíî âäðóã ñîñòîèòñÿ) áó- Èíòåðåñíî, ÷òî ïîñëå êðèçèñà 2009 ã., êîòîðûé äåò îçíà÷àòü ñóùåñòâåííîå îáîñòðåíèå äîëãîâûõ çàòðîíóë â ïåðâóþ î÷åðåäü ðàçâèòûå ñòðàíû, ñè- ïðîáëåì.  ýòîé ñâÿçè ñòðàíû «Áîëüøîé ñå- 2 ÝÊÑÏÎÐÒ ÂÎÎÐÓÆÅÍÈÉ ÊÎÌÌÅÍÒÀÐÈÈ ìåðêè» óìåñòíî òàêæå íàçûâàòü è «Ñåìåðêîé  1998 ã. ÂÂÏ ñòðàíû ñîñòàâëÿë âñåãî ëèøü 115 ìëðä áîëüøèõ äîëæíèêîâ». äîëë.  ïåðèîä 2011-2014 ãã. ÂÂÏ Èíäîíåçèè â äîëëàðîâîì ýêâèâàëåíòå ñîñòàâëÿë â ñðåäíåì ÌÂÔ â ñâîåì ïîñëåäíåì îáçîðå ïåðñïåêòèâ ìè- óæå îêîëî 900 ìëðä äîëë. (è êîëåáàëñÿ â äèàïà- ðîâîé ýêîíîìèêè (World Economic Outlook) çîíå 890-920 ìëðä äîëë.).  ýòîò ïåðèîä, íå- ïðîãíîçèðóåò âåñüìà óìåðåííûå òåìïû ðîñòà íî- ñìîòðÿ íà âåñüìà âûñîêèå òåìïû ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ìèíàëüíîãî ÂÂÏ ó ñòðàí «Áîëüøîé ñåìåðêè» – ðîñòà, ÂÂÏ Èíäîíåçèè â äîëëàðîâîì âûðàæåíèè óñòîé÷èâî íèæå 4% â ãîä â áëèæàéøèå øåñòü íå ïîêàçûâàë ñòîëü æå óñòîé÷èâîé äèíàìèêè â ëåò. Òî åñòü íà ôîíå âÿëîãî ðîñòà ðåàëüíîãî ñèëó îñëàáëåíèÿ íàöèîíàëüíîé âàëþòû, ÷òî ïðî- ÂÂÏ (êîòîðûé ïî îöåíêàì ÌÂÔ, â ýòîò æå ïå- èñõîäèëî è â äðóãèõ ñòðàíàõ.  2015 ã. íà ôîíå ðèîä íå ïðåâûñèò 2% â ãîä) ïîëó÷àåòñÿ, ÷òî ãëîáàëüíîãî óêðåïëåíèÿ äîëëàðà è ñíèæåíèÿ ïðîãíîç ÌÂÔ ïðåäïîëàãàåò åæåãîäíóþ èíôëÿ- ìèðîâûõ öåí íà ñûðüå ÂÂÏ Èíäîíåçèè ñíèçèëñÿ öèþ â ðàçâèòûõ ñòðàíàõ íà óðîâíå ìåíüøå 2% è, ïðèìåðíî äî 860 ìëðä äîëë., íåñìîòðÿ íà òî, ÷òî ñîîòâåòñòâåííî, ýòî îçíà÷àåò ñîõðàíåíèå íèçêèõ â ðåàëüíîì âûðàæåíèè îí óâåëè÷èëñÿ ïðèìåðíî ïðîöåíòíûõ ñòàâîê. Èìåííî áëàãîäàðÿ íèçêèì íà 5%. ñòàâêàì ñîîòíîøåíèå äîëãà è ÂÂÏ «Ñåìåðêè áîëüøèõ äîëæíèêîâ» â ñöåíàðèè ÌÂÔ îñòàåòñÿ  ïåðèîä ôèíàíñîâîãî êðèçèñà 1997-1998 ãã. ñòàáèëüíûì.  ñèëó ýòîãî âîçìîæíîñòè äëÿ ïî- ÷èñëåííîñòü íàñåëåíèÿ ñòðàíû ñîñòàâëÿëà ïî- âûøåíèÿ ñòàâîê â áëèæàéøèå øåñòü ëåò, ñî- ðÿäêà 200 ìëí ÷åëîâåê.  2014 ã. ÷èñëåííîñòü ãëàñíî ñîîáðàæåíèÿì ÌÂÔ, íå âûñêàçàííûì, íàñåëåíèÿ ïðåâûñèëà 252 ìëí ÷åëîâåê, à â 2015 ã. îäíàêî, â ÿâíîì âèäå, îñòàþòñÿ âåñüìà îãðàíè- ïðèáëèçèëàñü ê 256 ìëí ÷åëîâåê. Êàæäûé ãîä ÷åííûìè. íàñåëåíèå ñòðàíû óâåëè÷èâàåòñÿ íà 3-4 ìëí ÷å- ëîâåê. Õîòÿ ÂÂÏ íà äóøó íàñåëåíèÿ Èíäîíåçèè Перспективы Индонезии âñå åùå îñòàåòñÿ íåáîëüøèì (ïîðÿäêà 3362 äîë- ëàðîâ â 2015 ã.) âíóòðåííèé ñïðîñ â ñòðàíå äè- Òàêèì îáðàçîì, ñêîðåå âñåãî, ïîëó÷èòñÿ òàê, ÷òî íàìè÷íî ðàñòåò. Íàðÿäó ñ ýòèì, ìàñøòàáû ýêî- â áëèæàéøèå ãîäû, â ãëîáàëüíîé ñèñòåìå äåôè- íîìèêè ñòðàíû äîñòàòî÷íî âåëèêè â òîì ñìûñëå, öèòà ôèíàíñîâûõ ðåñóðñîâ îùóùàòüñÿ íå áóäåò, ÷òî ãîñóäàðñòâåííûé ñïðîñ íà ðÿä òîâàðîâ è óñ- è ýòè ðåñóðñû áóäóò îñòàâàòüñÿ äåøåâûìè. Èí- ëóã, íàïðèìåð, âîîðóæåíèÿ, ìîæåò îñòàâàòüñÿ äîíåçèÿ, êàê ñòðàíà ñ äèíàìè÷íî ðàñòóùèì íàñå- âåñüìà çíà÷èìûì è óñòîé÷èâûì. ëåíèåì è äåìîíñòðèðóþùàÿ äîâîëüíî âûñîêèå òåìïà ðîñòà ýêîíîìèêè, áóäåò ÿâíûì áåíåôèöèà- Ïî ïàðèòåòó ïîêóïàòåëüíîé ñïîñîáíîñòè ÂÂÏ ðîì è ñìîæåò ðàññ÷èòûâàòü íà óñòîé÷èâûé ïðè- Èíäîíåçèè ïðèìåðíî â òðè ñ ïîëîâèíîé ðàçà òîê êàïèòàëà. ïðåâûøàåò åå ÂÂÏ, ðàññ÷èòûâàåìûé ïî òåêó- ùåìó êóðñó íàöèîíàëüíîé âàëþòû ê äîëëàðó, è Íà÷èíàÿ ñ 2000 ã. ýêîíîìè÷åñêèé ðîñò â Èíäîíå- ñîñòàâëÿåò 2,842 òðëí äîëë. (2015 ã.).  ïðèí- çèè âîññòàíîâèëñÿ è ñ òåõ ïîð íå îïóñêàëñÿ íèæå öèïå ýòî îáñòîÿòåëüñòâî ñâèäåòåëüñòâóåò î ñóùå- 3,6% â ãîä (â 2001 ã.). Äàæå â 2009 ã. ýêîíîìèêà ñòâåííîì ïîòåíöèàëå ðîñòà êàê ýêîíîìèêè ñòðàíû âûðîñëà íà 4,7%. Ñðåäíåãîäîâûå æå ñòðàíû, òàê è äîëãîñðî÷íîãî óêðåïëåíèÿ íàöèî- òåìïû ðîñòà ýêîíîìèêè çà äåñÿòèëåòíèé ïåðèîä ñ íàëüíîé âàëþòû. Ïîñëåäíåå áóäåò îçíà÷àòü 2000 ïî 2009 ã. ñîñòàâèëè 5,3%.  ïîñëåäóþùèé äàëüíåéøåå óâåëè÷åíèå âíóòðåííåãî ñïðîñà. Ïî ïåðèîä (ñ 2010 ã. ïî 2015 ã.) ýêîíîìè÷åñêèé ðîñò ïàðèòåòó ïîêóïàòåëüíîé ñïîñîáíîñòè ýêîíîìèêà â Èíäîíåçèè îñòàâàëñÿ ñòàáèëüíûì è äàæå íå- Èíäîíåçèè ñîñòàâëÿåò ïðèìåðíî 2,5% ìèðîâîãî ñêîëüêî óñêîðèëñÿ ïî ñðàâíåíèþ ñ ïðåäûäóùèì ÂÂÏ, ÷òî íåñêîëüêî ìåíüøå ñîîòâåòñòâóþùåé äåñÿòèëåòèåì – äî 5,7% â ñðåäíåì çà ãîä. äîëè ÂÂÏ Ðîññèè, êîòîðàÿ âûøå 3%. Ðèñóíîê 1. Áàëàíñ ðàñøèðåííîãî ïðàâèòåëüñòâà è ãîñóäàðñòâåííûé äîëã Источник: расчеты автора. ìàðò — àïðåëü 2016 3 ÊÎÌÌÅÍÒÀÐÈÈ Ðèñóíîê 2. Òåìïû ðîñòà ÂÂÏ Èíäîíåçèè è ñàëüäî òåêóùèõ îïåðàöèé, 2000-2021 ãã. Источник: расчеты автора. Ïîìèìî ñòàáèëüíî ðàñòóùåé ÷èñëåííîñòè íàñå-  1990-õ ãã. äî êðèçèñà ñòðàíà õðîíè÷åñêè çà- ëåíèÿ, äðóãèì ñðàâíèòåëüíûì ïðåèìóùåñòâîì âèñåëà îò ïðèòîêà êàïèòàëà, îò íåîáõîäèìîñòè Èíäîíåçèè ñ òî÷êè çðåíèÿ îáåñïå÷åíèÿ óñòîé÷è- ôèíàíñèðîâàíèÿ âíåøíèõ äîëãîâ. Îäíàêî ïîñëå âûõ òåìïîâ ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ðîñòà, ÿâëÿåòñÿ îò- äåâàëüâàöèè âàëþòû óæå â 1998 ã. ñàëüäî ñ÷åòà ñóòñòâèå ñåðüåçíûõ äîëãîâûõ ïðîáëåì. Åñëè ïî- òåêóùèõ îïåðàöèé ðåçêî âûïðàâèëîñü è ñòàëî ñëå êðèçèñà 1998 ã. îòíîøåíèå âàëîâîãî ãîñóäàð- ïîëîæèòåëüíûì. Òàêîâûì îíî îñòàâàëîñü âïëîòü ñòâåííîãî äîëãà ñòðàíû ê ÂÂÏ ñîñòàâëÿëî ïî- äî 2012 ã. Ñ 2012 ïî 2014 ãã. äåôèöèò ñ÷åòà òå- ðÿäêà 87% (äàííûå çà 2000 ã.), òî ìèðîâîé ôè- êóùèõ îïåðàöèé íàõîäèëñÿ íà óðîâíå 2,7-3,2% íàíñîâûé êðèçèñ 2009 ã. Èíäîíåçèÿ ïðîøëà ñ ÂÂÏ, à â 2015 ã. äåôèöèò ñíèçèëñÿ äî 2,1% óðîâíåì ýòîãî äîëãà íà óðîâíå ëèøü 26,5% ÂÂÏ. ÂÂÏ. Äåôèöèò ñ÷åòà òåêóùèõ îïåðàöèé ñâèäå-  2015 ã. ýòîò óðîâåíü ñóùåñòâåííî íå èçìå- òåëüñòâóåò î òîì, ÷òî ñòðàíà óæå ñòàëà íåòòî-ðå- íèëñÿ, ñîñòàâèâ 27,3%, ïî äàííûì ÌÂÔ. Íå- öèïèåíòîì èíîñòðàííîãî
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