Enhancing U.S. Preventive Action
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Enhancing U.S. Preventive Action U.S.Enhancing Preventive Cover Photo: The main conference area of the White House Situation Room, newly remodeled, was shown to the press on May 18, 2007 (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images). Council Special Report No. 48 Council on Foreign Relations October 2009 58 East 68th Street Council No. 48 Special Report New York, NY 10065 tel 212.434.9400 Paul B. Stares and Micah Zenko fax 212.434.9800 1777 F Street, NW Washington, DC 20006 Enhancing U.S. tel 202.509.8400 fax 202.509.8490 www.cfr.org Preventive Action Enhancing U.S. Preventive Action Council Special Report No. 48 October 2009 Paul B. Stares and Micah Zenko Enhancing U.S. Preventive Action The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members, government officials, business execu- tives, journalists, educators and students, civic and religious leaders, and other interested citizens in order to help them better understand the world and the foreign policy choices facing the United States and other countries. 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This report is printed on paper that is certified by SmartWood to the standards of the Forest Stewardship Council, which promotes environmentally responsible, socially beneficial, and economically viable man- agement of the world’s forests. Contents Foreword vii Acknowledgments ix Acronyms xi Council Special Report 1 Introduction 3 Assessing U.S. Preventive Action 10 Recommendations 19 Endnotes 27 About the Authors 35 Advisory Committee 37 CPA Advisory Committee 38 CPA Mission Statement 39 Foreword Few would dispute that preventing conflict, instability, and humanitar- ian disaster is preferable to confronting these problems after they arise. Preventive measures are generally less expensive than remedial ones. They also allow policymakers to address potential crises before they threaten international stability, U.S. interests, and human lives. Building an effective U.S. government capacity to take preventive action, however, has proved an elusive goal. And the challenges to achieving it have perhaps never been greater. The urgent problems faced by the United States, including wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, nuclear development in Iran and North Korea, and the aftermath of a deep economic crisis, make it difficult for policymakers to focus resources and attention on potential future threats. But these same urgent challenges also make preventive action more useful. In this climate, measures that could obviate further military commitments, save money, and resolve tensions that might consume more time and resources later are a sound investment. In this Council Special Report, sponsored by the Center for Preven- tive Action, Paul B. Stares and Micah Zenko evaluate the U.S. system for foreseeing and heading off crises. They assess in detail current U.S. practices with regard to different types of preventive action, examining such topics as intelligence community analyses; “watchlists” of states at risk; interagency planning processes; foreign assistance programming; and the work of the State Department office created in 2004 to lead U.S. government efforts in this area. The report cites an array of shortcom- ings in how the government plans and conducts its preventive activities, a situation that can leave policymakers scrambling to respond to crises after they break out. To improve this, the authors recommend a variety of steps, including revising and strengthening the strategic planning process under the leadership of the National Security Council, improv- ing and consolidating intelligence products and connecting them more vii viii Foreword closely to policymakers, and providing additional funding for preven- tive efforts. Enhancing U.S. Preventive Action is a comprehensive contribution to the debate on a complex topic. It offers detailed recommendations that could bolster the ability of the United States to identify and address threats before they erupt into crises. It also makes a strong case that given the military and economic constraints facing the United States today, such preventive action is not a luxury but a necessity. Richard N. Haass President Council on Foreign Relations October 2009 Acknowledgments This report was made possible by the generous assistance and advice provided by many; we are grateful to them all. First, we thank CFR Pres- ident Richard N. Haass and Director of Studies James M. Lindsay for supporting this project and for providing helpful comments through- out its development. The time and expertise given by the members of the CSR advisory committee, and in particular Lawrence Woocher, Tjip Walker, Freder- ick S. Tipson, Stewart M. Patrick, Kara C. McDonald, Kathleen Kava- lec, and Lyston A. Lea, were invaluable to the success of this project. Cara L. Abercrombie, Cynthia Irmer, and government officials who have requested not to be identified also provided feedback that greatly contributed to the quality of the report. Finally, we are grateful to Patricia Dorff and Lia Norton in Publica- tions for their terrific editing support and to Lisa Shields, Anya Schme- mann, and Melinda Brouwer in Communications and Marketing for working to promote and distribute the report. We also appreciate the contribution of Assistant Director of Studies Melanie Gervacio Lin and Studies Administrator Kate Howell in guiding the CSR through Studies, and the extraordinary logistical, research, and intellectual sup- port of CPA Research Associates Elise Vaughan, Rebecca Friedman, and Stephen Wittels, and Intern Dana Stern. This publication was made possible by a grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. CFR also expresses its thanks to the Robina Foundation for its support for Dr. Zenko’s work on multilateral dimen- sions of conflict prevention. The statements made and views expressed herein are solely our own. Paul B. Stares Micah Zenko ix Acronyms CMM Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation COCOMs Combatant Commands