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Enhancing U.S. Preventive Action Enhancing U.S. Preventive Action U.S.Enhancing Preventive Cover Photo: The main conference area of the White House Situation Room, newly remodeled, was shown to the press on May 18, 2007 (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images). Council Special Report No. 48 Council on Foreign Relations October 2009 58 East 68th Street Council No. 48 Special Report New York, NY 10065 tel 212.434.9400 Paul B. Stares and Micah Zenko fax 212.434.9800 1777 F Street, NW Washington, DC 20006 Enhancing U.S. tel 202.509.8400 fax 202.509.8490 www.cfr.org Preventive Action Enhancing U.S. Preventive Action Council Special Report No. 48 October 2009 Paul B. Stares and Micah Zenko Enhancing U.S. Preventive Action The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members, government officials, business execu- tives, journalists, educators and students, civic and religious leaders, and other interested citizens in order to help them better understand the world and the foreign policy choices facing the United States and other countries. Founded in 1921, CFR carries out its mission by maintaining a diverse membership, with special programs to promote interest and develop expertise in the next generation of foreign policy leaders; con- vening meetings at its headquarters in New York and in Washington, DC, and other cities where senior government officials, members of Congress, global leaders, and prominent thinkers come together with Council members to discuss and debate major international issues; supporting a Studies Program that fos- ters independent research, enabling CFR scholars to produce articles, reports, and books and hold round- tables that analyze foreign policy issues and make concrete policy recommendations; publishing Foreign Affairs, the preeminent journal on international affairs and U.S. foreign policy; sponsoring Independent Task Forces that produce reports with both findings and policy prescriptions on the most important for- eign policy topics; and providing up-to-date information and analysis about world events and American foreign policy on its website, CFR.org. The Council on Foreign Relations takes no institutional position on policy issues and has no affiliation with the U.S. government. All statements of fact and expressions of opinion contained in its publications are the sole responsibility of the author or authors. Council Special Reports (CSRs) are concise policy briefs, produced to provide a rapid response to a devel- oping crisis or contribute to the public’s understanding of current policy dilemmas. CSRs are written by individual authors—who may be CFR fellows or acknowledged experts from outside the institution—in consultation with an advisory committee, and are intended to take sixty days from inception to publication. The committee serves as a sounding board and provides feedback on a draft report. It usually meets twice— once before a draft is written and once again when there is a draft for review; however, advisory committee members, unlike Task Force members, are not asked to sign off on the report or to otherwise endorse it. Once published, CSRs are posted on www.cfr.org. For further information about CFR or this Special Report, please write to the Council on Foreign Rela- tions, 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065, or call the Communications office at 212.434.9888. Visit our website, CFR.org. Copyright © 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations ® Inc. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, in any form beyond the reproduction permitted by Sections 107 and 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law Act (17 U.S.C. Sections 107 and 108) and excerpts by reviewers for the public press, without express written permission from the Council on Foreign Relations. For information, write to the Publications Office, Council on Foreign Relations, 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065. To submit a letter in response to a Council Special Report for publication on our website, CFR.org, you may send an email to [email protected]. Alternatively, letters may be mailed to us at: Publications Depart- ment, Council on Foreign Relations, 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065. Letters should include the writer’s name, postal address, and daytime phone number. Letters may be edited for length and clarity, and may be published online. Please do not send attachments. All letters become the property of the Council on Foreign Relations and will not be returned. We regret that, owing to the volume of correspondence, we cannot respond to every letter. This report is printed on paper that is certified by SmartWood to the standards of the Forest Stewardship Council, which promotes environmentally responsible, socially beneficial, and economically viable man- agement of the world’s forests. Contents Foreword vii Acknowledgments ix Acronyms xi Council Special Report 1 Introduction 3 Assessing U.S. Preventive Action 10 Recommendations 19 Endnotes 27 About the Authors 35 Advisory Committee 37 CPA Advisory Committee 38 CPA Mission Statement 39 Foreword Few would dispute that preventing conflict, instability, and humanitar- ian disaster is preferable to confronting these problems after they arise. Preventive measures are generally less expensive than remedial ones. They also allow policymakers to address potential crises before they threaten international stability, U.S. interests, and human lives. Building an effective U.S. government capacity to take preventive action, however, has proved an elusive goal. And the challenges to achieving it have perhaps never been greater. The urgent problems faced by the United States, including wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, nuclear development in Iran and North Korea, and the aftermath of a deep economic crisis, make it difficult for policymakers to focus resources and attention on potential future threats. But these same urgent challenges also make preventive action more useful. In this climate, measures that could obviate further military commitments, save money, and resolve tensions that might consume more time and resources later are a sound investment. In this Council Special Report, sponsored by the Center for Preven- tive Action, Paul B. Stares and Micah Zenko evaluate the U.S. system for foreseeing and heading off crises. They assess in detail current U.S. practices with regard to different types of preventive action, examining such topics as intelligence community analyses; “watchlists” of states at risk; interagency planning processes; foreign assistance programming; and the work of the State Department office created in 2004 to lead U.S. government efforts in this area. The report cites an array of shortcom- ings in how the government plans and conducts its preventive activities, a situation that can leave policymakers scrambling to respond to crises after they break out. To improve this, the authors recommend a variety of steps, including revising and strengthening the strategic planning process under the leadership of the National Security Council, improv- ing and consolidating intelligence products and connecting them more vii viii Foreword closely to policymakers, and providing additional funding for preven- tive efforts. Enhancing U.S. Preventive Action is a comprehensive contribution to the debate on a complex topic. It offers detailed recommendations that could bolster the ability of the United States to identify and address threats before they erupt into crises. It also makes a strong case that given the military and economic constraints facing the United States today, such preventive action is not a luxury but a necessity. Richard N. Haass President Council on Foreign Relations October 2009 Acknowledgments This report was made possible by the generous assistance and advice provided by many; we are grateful to them all. First, we thank CFR Pres- ident Richard N. Haass and Director of Studies James M. Lindsay for supporting this project and for providing helpful comments through- out its development. The time and expertise given by the members of the CSR advisory committee, and in particular Lawrence Woocher, Tjip Walker, Freder- ick S. Tipson, Stewart M. Patrick, Kara C. McDonald, Kathleen Kava- lec, and Lyston A. Lea, were invaluable to the success of this project. Cara L. Abercrombie, Cynthia Irmer, and government officials who have requested not to be identified also provided feedback that greatly contributed to the quality of the report. Finally, we are grateful to Patricia Dorff and Lia Norton in Publica- tions for their terrific editing support and to Lisa Shields, Anya Schme- mann, and Melinda Brouwer in Communications and Marketing for working to promote and distribute the report. We also appreciate the contribution of Assistant Director of Studies Melanie Gervacio Lin and Studies Administrator Kate Howell in guiding the CSR through Studies, and the extraordinary logistical, research, and intellectual sup- port of CPA Research Associates Elise Vaughan, Rebecca Friedman, and Stephen Wittels, and Intern Dana Stern. This publication was made possible by a grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. CFR also expresses its thanks to the Robina Foundation for its support for Dr. Zenko’s work on multilateral dimen- sions of conflict prevention. The statements made and views expressed herein are solely our own. Paul B. Stares Micah Zenko ix Acronyms CMM Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation COCOMs Combatant Commands
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