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Al Qaeda Weapons of Mass Destruction Threat: Hype Or Reality? by Rolf Mowatt-Larssen Foreword by Graham Allison

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Al Qaeda Weapons of Mass Destruction Threat: Hype Or Reality? by Rolf Mowatt-Larssen Foreword by Graham Allison AL QAEDA WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION THREAT: HYPE OR REALITY? 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Order January 2010 Russ Strategic Acquire Posed ia D Military Ca U.S. ecemb Groups su Destroy alit y er Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Harvard Kennedy School 79 JFK Street Cambridge, MA 02138 Fax: (617) 495-8963 Email: [email protected] Website: http://belfercenter.org Design and Layout Tim Duffy Copyright 2010 President and Fellows of Harvard College Printed in the United States of America AL QAEDA WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION THREAT: HYPE OR REALITY? By Rolf Mowatt-Larssen Foreword by Graham Allison January 2010 FOREWORD by Graham Allison How serious is the threat of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) terrorism? When asked, “What is the single most serious threat to American national security?” President George W. Bush answered: nuclear terrorism. On this issue, President Obama agrees with his predecessor. In his words, “The single most important national security threat we face is nuclear weapons falling into the hands of terrorists.” The only Secretary of Defense to have served under both Republican and Democratic presidents, Secretary Robert Gates, was asked recently, “What keeps you awake at night?” He responded: “It’s the thought of a terrorist ending up with a weapon of mass destruction, especially nuclear.” Skeptics, however, abound. They say that WMD terrorism is far beyond the capability, and even the intent of terrorist groups such as al Qaeda. Some claim that the likelihood of a non-state actor acquiring such weapons is virtually zero. The individual in the U.S. intelligence community who is widely recognized as the leading analyst of WMD terrorism is Rolf Mowatt-Larssen. After more than three decades in public service in CIA operations, and most recently Director of Intelligence and Counterintelligence at the U.S. Department of Energy, he retired in January 2009. Mowatt-Larssen has now compiled a comprehensive chronology that addresses the skeptics head-on, by presenting, in unclassified form, al Qaeda’s roughly 15-year quest to acquire WMD. By assembling the best publically- available evidence in an authoritative, readable account, he offers a must-read advance in our understanding of the threat. This record provides an essential grounding for serious thought about how to combat a defining threat of the 21st Century. This chronology teaches us four important lessons. First, al Qaeda’s top leadership has demonstrated a sustained commitment to buy, steal or construct WMD. In 1998, Osama bin Laden declared that “acquiring WMD for the defense of Muslims is a religious duty.” In December 2001, bin Laden’s Deputy Ayman Zawahiri stated, “If you have $30 million, go to the black market in the central Asia, contact any disgruntled Soviet scientist and a lot of dozens of smart briefcase bombs are available.” A few months later, al Qaeda announced its goal to “kill four million Americans.” Second, al Qaeda was prepared to expend significant resources to cultivate a WMD capability even during the planning phases of 9/11. In the years leading up to September 2001, we see that bin Laden’s organization never lost its focus on WMD, even while 2 Al Qaeda Weapons of Mass Destruction Threat: Hype or Reality? coordinating the 9/11 attacks, orchestrating the simultaneous bombings of the U.S.
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