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IAW (Inaugural Issue) Editoria The thinking man of our time inhabits a juxtaposed matrix of coexisting realities. While we deliberate on the waning significance of nation-states, we also revel in its transience. The strictly political readily blends into the apparently economic to condition the manifestly socio-cultural. What happens around us shape our patterns of cognitive perception, and yields into the discourse of contemporary international relations and political economy. Our world today vindicates contemporaneous trends of stability and turbulence, of peace and violence, of prosperity and poverty, of containment and contagion. This vicissitude nucleates a space, a vacuum where the alchemy of our imagination fits in. It is to harness this imagination that we at Global India Foundation conceived the International Affairs Watch (IAW). IAW is designed essentially as a country report to study the trajectory of political, economic and strategic discourse in fifty countries, analysed in terms of the parameters of their domestic and foreign policy. The endeavour rests on a scholastic eneterprise intended to harmonise the evolving trends in International Relations. This issue of International Affairs Watch introduces each country in the light of its politico- economic and strategic policy dynamics. The subsequent issues of IAW shall attempt to connect the locus of this academic scholarship. The maturity of IAW lies in its ability to strike a chord between succinct journalism and solemn scholarship, woven into the lyric of language. IAW has been able to secure the confluence of an exceptionally gifted team of contributors. The creative camaraderie of this association further chisels the merit of our endeavour. As an editorial team, we have tried to preserve the genius in each feature within the constraints of design and publication. We have worked very closely with the authors, the designers and the publishers in ensuring that each Feature in International Affairs Watch remains lucidly readable, sharply interesting and aesthetically pleasant. We sincerely appreciate the creative excellence of our associates. We have worked around the clock and even against the clock to bring before you the introductory issue of International Affairs Watch. The culmination of this volume has been an exceedingly enriching experience. We hope to grow bigger and mature better in time with experience and excellence. Looking forward to more conscious reading and informed writing…! Sayantani Sylvia From the Foundation The Global India Foundation is a registered not-for-profit institution premised on promoting national resilience and international interdependence within the broad spectrum of economic prosperity, liberal values and social commitment. The Foundation operates as a policy think tank straddling a range of aspects amidst an ambit of disciplines, and aspires to play an effective role in the research and dissemination of knowledge on issues of contemporary relevance. Since its inception in January 2007, the Foundation has directed its research initiatives towards an array of subjects, ranging from issues of global importance to aspects associated with contemporary socio-political and economic change. What began primarily as a foreign policy study initiative has in course of time grown to acquire a more comprehensive research agenda. In keeping with this, and its professed objective of dissemination of knowledge on relevant contemporary issues, the Foundation has conceived a publication modeled along the lines of a country report. The International Affairs Watch is conteptualised as a quarterly publication that shall cover the political, economic and security related developments in 50 countries across the world. Despite being a relatively nascent organisation, the Foundation has evolved into a seat of scholastic confluence and carved a niche for itself in the academic community. The Foundation relies on the promise of an exceptionally motivated team of young scholars to realise its scholarly potentials. The Foundation works to improve the quality of public policy debate in the country by drawing on the expertise of policymakers, theoreticians, practitioners and the academia. Through its multifarious activities, and with the help of track II techniques, informal bridge-building and dissemination of knowledge, the Foundation promotes its larger goal of projecting the image of a contemporary India – an India of liberal values, economic prosperity and social commitment based on the postulates of national resilience and international interdependence. I acknowledge the support and guidance of Vice-Admiral P.J. Jacob, Chairman and cooperation of my esteemed colleagues in the Executive Council of Global India Foundation. I wish to congratulate the editorial team for accomplishing a difficult feat, considering the complicities that a compilation such as this entails and wish them success in this endeavour. Prof. Omprakash Mishra Member Secretary Afghanistan Dr. Arpita Basu Roy, Fellow, Maulana Abul Kalam Azad Institute of Asian Studies Public opinion in Afghanistan as well as the U.S has increasingly grown to oppose the presence of foreign forces. There is a perceptible anxiety about the preparedness amid Afghan forces to assume security responsibilities. As apprehensions grow over the likely scenario in the wake of the withdrawal of international troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2014, UN assurances such as these seem to be on the rise. The United States and its allies in Afghanistan are beginning a draw-down of forces that should see most foreign soldiers out of Afghanistan by the end of 2014, at which time Afghan government forces are slated to take over offices of security in their country. There is also a sense of anxiety among several UN agencies and International Red Cross that there could be a humanitarian crisis if the international community fails in its commitment to Afghanistan in the midst of growing apprehensions over whether Afghan government forces will be prepared enough to assume security responsibilities. U.S. President Barack Obama has reinstated that there will be no "rush for the exits" from Afghanistan (March, 2012). Public opinion, both in Afghanistan and the United States increasingly oppose the presence of foreign forces in Afghanistan. Public outrage against international intervention mounted as 16 Afghan civilians were killed in a rampage by a US soldier on March 11. The killings have further dampened U.S.-Afghan ties that were already tense following the news of U.S. troops burning copies of the Quran at the Bagram airbase in Afghanistan. The U.S Defense Secretary Leon Panetta confirmed that the soldier suspected of killing sixteen civilians is likely to face death penalty if convicted. The incident however, has given rise to apprehensions of anti-American backlash I Afghanistan. Nonetheless, there seems to be a growing impression that the Obama government and some of its Western allies in the face of declining public support looks likely to promote a quicker drawdown. The New York Times reported that the White House could reduce the US footprint in Afghanistan by almost 20,000 troops by next year. According to the Annual Report on Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflicts of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), 2011 marks the fifth consecutive year showing a consistent increase in civilian casualties in Afghanistan. It is believed that changes in the tactics of the parties to the conflict were responsible for an eight per cent increase in Afghan civilian deaths in 2011 compared to 2010. UNAMA documented 3,021 civilian deaths in 2011 compared with 2,790 in 2010 and 2,412 in 2009. Over the past five years, the number of Afghan civilians killed in armed conflicts has increased every year, with a total of 11,864 civilian lives claimed since 2007. The Bonn Conference (December 5, 2011) on the ‘transition to transformation’ of Afghanistan displayed the most dedicated commitment to enable the Afghan people engage with the international community. The conference deliberated on three themes — managing the transition as the West prepares to pull back its forces, the political process that ought to be institutionalised and long term engagement of the international community in Afghanistan. India for the first time received the attention it never could expect in similar international convergences. India entered the Bonn conference riding on the confidence of its security pact with Afghanistan. Even the U.S., which has invested the most in the country, has still not been able to finalise the contours of a similar pact. The strategic pact with India seems to be “universally popular” in Afghanistan and there has been “no demand for its ratification” unlike the case of the proposed pact with the U.S. An Indian consortium has received mining rights to the region’s largest untapped iron ore deposits in the region South-west of Kabul. In the given situation, it would not be unrealistic to presume that in the event of de-escalation of tensions between the West and Iran, India will stand to gain from an alternative route to transport men and material from the Hajigak mine. China may have been successful with the Aynak copper mine, but unlike India it does not have a visible political role in Afghanistan. A joint report, published in early December 2011, by a group of Afghan civil society organisations and the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission entitled, Afghan People’s Dialogue on Peace: Laying the Foundations for
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