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33SPAC E and DEFENSE 33SPAC E and DEFENSE Volume Twelve Number One Winter 2021 Successful Deterrence in the 21st Century Eaker Lecture: Gen John E. Hyten Volume Five Number One Duffer’s Drift and Space Operations Sum Roger Wortman mer 2011 Deterrence in Cyberspace Abderrahmane Sokri Cadet Voice—AI and Stability in Nuclear Crises Coalitions in Space:Marshall FosterWhere Networks are Power Cadet Voice—Extended Deterrence in the Baltics byLiam James Connolly Clay Moltz Review: Death of Expertise by Tom Nichols The 2010 NationalDamon Space Coletta Policy: Down to Earth? by Joan Johnson-Freese Space & Defense Journal of the United States Air Force Academy Eisenhower Center for Space and Defense Studies Publisher Col. Kris Bauman, [email protected] Director, Eisenhower Center for Space and Defense Studies Editors Dr. Damon Coletta Dr. Michelle Black U.S. Air Force Academy University of Nebraska Omaha C1C Rhiannon Townsend (Asst. Ed.) U.S. Air Force Academy Associate Editors Mr. Deron Jackson Dr. Peter Hays U.S. Air Force Academy George Washington University Dr. Schuyler Foerster Ms. Jonty Kasku-Jackson U.S. Air Force Academy National Security Space Institute Ms. Elsbeth Magilton Dr. Lana Obradovic University of Nebraska College of Law University of Nebraska Omaha Thank You to Our Reviewers Andrew Aldrin Dean Cheng United Launch Alliance Heritage Foundation James Armor Christopher Culver ATK U.S Air Force Academy Steven Beard Frans von der Dunk Univ. of California San Diego University of Nebraska William Barry Christopher Dunlap NASA Naval Postgraduate School Daniel Blinder Paul Eckart UNSAM-CONICET, Argentina Boeing Robert Callahan Andrew Erickson NORAD-NORTHCOM Naval War College James Cameron James Fielder Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Brazil Colorado State University Robert Carriedo Joanne Gabrynowicz U.S. Air Force Academy University of Mississippi Jason Healey Andrew Reddie Atlantic Council University of California, Berkeley Stephen Herzog John Riley Yale University U.S. Air Force Academy Theresa Hitchens Chiara Ruffa United Nations, Switzerland Swedish Defence University, Sweden Wade Huntley Victoria Samson Independent Researcher, USA Secure World Foundation Lauren Ice Jaganath Sankaran Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab Los Alamos National Laboratory Ram Jakhu Matthew Schaefer McGill University, Canada University of Nebraska Dana Johnson Benjamin Shearn Department of State, USA George Mason University Jaclyn Kerr Rouven Steeves Lawrence Livermore, CGSR U.S. Air Force Academy Roger Launius Dimitrios Stroikos National Air and Space Museum London School of Economics, United Kingdom Charlotte Lee Brent Talbot Berkeley City College U.S. Air Force Academy John Logsdon Susan Trepczynski George Washington University United States Air Force Laura Delgado Lopez Scott Trimboli Secure World Foundation University of Colorado, Colorado Springs Adam Lowther James Vedda SANDS, Kirtland AFB Aerospace Corporation Agnieszka Lukaszczyk Rick Walker Secure World Foundation, Belgium Digital Consulting Services Molly Macauley Annalisa Weigel Resources for the Future Massachusetts Institute of Technology Torey McMurdo David Whalen Yale U. / U.S. Naval War College University of North Dakota Clay Moltz George Whitesides Naval Postgraduate School NASA Headquarters Scott Pace Ray Williamson George Washington University Secure Word Foundation Xavier Pasco Foundation for Strategic Research, France Elliot Pulham Space Foundation Wolfgang Rathbeger European Space Policy Institute, Austria *This is the authoritative Eisenhower Center for Space and Defense Studies/U.S. Air Force Academy edition of Space & Defense. Space & Defense should be acknowledged whenever material is quoted from or based on its content. The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are those of the contributors and, unless otherwise specified, do not reflect official views of the U.S. Government or the U.S. Air Force Academy. Space & Defense is available at https://www.usafa.edu/research/research-centers/eisenhower-center-space-defense-studies/ and indexed by ©EBSCOhost and the University of Nebraska Omaha Digital Commons. United States Library of Congress, ISSN 2380-131X. Editor, Space & Defense Dept. of Political Science 2354 Fairchild Dr., Suite 6L-116 USAF Academy, CO 80840 Space & Defense Journal of the United States Air Force Academy Eisenhower Center for Space and Defense Studies Volume Twelve ▪ Number One ▪ Winter 2021 Editor’s Note Senior Leader Voice Successful Deterrence in the 21st Century 04 Gen. John E .Hyten Articles Duffer’s Drift and Space Operations 12 Roger Wortman Deterrence in Cyberspace: A Game-Theoretic Approach 18 Abderrahmane Sokri Essays Cadet Voice—Artificial Intelligence and Stability in Nuclear Crises 29 Marshall D. Foster Cadet Voice—Extended Deterrence and Resilience in the Baltic States 41 Liam J. Connolly Review—The Death of Expertise: The Campaign against Established Knowledge and Why It Matters by Tom Nichols 51 Damon Coletta Editor’s Note diminishing rate of return on how much he deters In this issue, we extend our approach to his adversary. With relatively few, plausible Space & Defense as a challenge within the broad assumptions on how investment improves field of inquiry known as political economy. By resilience of cyber networks for defender, and this we mean that national defense of “spaces” or limits benefits for attacker, Sokri conjures a game- multiple domains for national security involves theoretic world that offers insights as to how more than allocating resources and executing defender can calibrate just-right spending on programs for increasing military capability. It also cyber defense and (unlike cyber offense) advertise entails thinking through strategic problem sets that his effort with intent to lock an adversary into include elements of cooperation—international predictable equilibrium play. alliances and domestic negotiations—as well as competition among military organizations. In this issue, we present two remarkable cadet papers nurtured by USAFA’s Nuclear Weapons Consistent with our aim to open the journal’s and Strategy minor and recognized by external editorial scope and address all relevant frontiers of experts on deterrence. Second Lieutenant defense policy, this issue welcomes contributions Marshall Foster (USAFA ’20) reviews the on space, cyber security, artificial intelligence and burgeoning literature on how artificial intelligence nuclear deterrence. General John E. Hyten, then- will affect strategic stability and supplies his own commander of U.S. Strategic Command, account based on the interaction of strategic addressed cadets at the U.S. Air Force Academy cultures. Second Lieutenant Liam Connolly (USAFA) for the 2019 Eaker Lecture on (USAFA ’19) surveys recent pressure on Baltic preparing to meet the 21st century deterrence states within NATO and raises the importance of mission. He has graciously allowed Space & national resilience—a rather complex correlate of Defense to publish a lightly edited transcript of his defense spending—for the success of U.S. remarks to future Air and Space Force officers. extended deterrence in Europe. In our first feature article, Roger Wortman of the Finally, as contributing editor, I review The Death U.S. Space Force reflects on the mission of of Expertise (Oxford, 2017) by Naval War defending vulnerable satellites on orbit. He draws College professor Tom Nichols. Nichols in the inspiration from a popular fictional tale, Defence book is mainly concerned about how status of Duffer’s Drift, to explain how military science decline of experts in American society imperils may be supplemented by game play that entertains modern democracy, which depends on elected a type of dream world based on reality but flexible representatives as generalists, weighing with respect to counterfactuals for adversary plans competing advice from professionals or accepting of attack. Implications for developing USSF political risk in order to follow the truth presented strategy, operational art, doctrine, and adaptability by expert consensus. Many of Nichols’ examples in crises ought to hold, regardless of whether or land in the policy areas of health, education, and when international powers choose to weaponize economy, but as an international security scholar, space. he is aware of additional implications from the death of expertise for foreign policy and U.S. Abderrahmane Sokri extends the theme of strategic competence. Nichols’ challenges, I imperfect defense to the cyber domain. He uses a argue, are important for civilian analysts and clever application of the business-based leader- military officers, the relevant experts, to keep at follower equilibrium from economic theory to the forefront as they prepare the new Space Force, explore the possibility of a Goldilocks solution for against rapidly evolving threats, under democratic cyber defense. As in the classic Stackelberg civilian control and subordinate to the authority of competition, first mover’s optimal strategy is not elected politicians. to invest everything he has, for there will be In my case, as is true for all our authors, contributions herein are academic and do not represent official policy or opinion of the U.S. Air Force or the U.S. Space Force. Damon Coletta USAFA January 2021 Senior Leader Voice As Delivered Remarks Gen John E. Hyten On 23 April 2019, Gen Hyten, commander of USSTRATCOM, visited the Air Force Academy to give the annual Ira C. Eaker lecture on National Defense Policy. Before soon to be graduates and officers,
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