COUNTRY FOCUS: DENMARK European Security & Defence 1/2015 Rising Challengers on Global Defence Markets ISSN 1617-7983 • a 5,90 • “NATO 3.0” as a Global Player Elements for Enhanced Infantry Firepower The dynamism of NATO‘s evolution has enabled the Armament concepts have become more complex: they Alliance to maintain a position that is unequalled across focus on modularity. “Infantry toolboxes” therefore www.euro-sd.com the whole international security architecture. contain a wide variety of components. Politics · Armed Forces · Procurement · Technology Editorial The Arab Spring Has Failed The history of Arab democracy could prob- a small detail, but one with symbolic value, that ably be written on the back of the proverbial Hosni Mubarak, whose regime was swept away postage stamp. And one name would crop up in the mass uprising, may yet go unpunished, repeatedly – that of Tunisian Beji Caid Essebsi. It despite initially facing execution. As onlook- was he who, in his capacity as Prime Minister of ers, the Europeans could side with neither the the transitional cabinet, handed over power to revolution nor the counter-revolution. They had a legitimately elected government in late 2011, to watch democratic rules being used by forces despite the fact that he did not like the extent that were anything but democratic in spirit. to which the new government was permeated The Europeans felt that, in Egypt, the Muslim by Islamists. He would later become President Brotherhood was taking steps to seize power, of Tunisia and was sworn in on New Year's Eve but it failed to prove that it had any objectives 2014, ten days after he convincingly defeated aside from Islamic totalitarianism. However, the his predecessor in the second round of voting. new powers in the as-Sisi regime, in their turn, However, given Essebsi's grand age of 88, it are using the traditional methods of suppres- does not seem wise to pin great hopes on him sion employed by their predecessors. In the securing a democratic future for his country. aftermath of the revolutionary interlude, they He represents unusual continuity rather than feel more justified than ever in ignoring human a fresh start. His political career extends back rights and the majority will when it comes to to the era when Tunisia was fighting for inde- preserving the order they identify with their pendence from France. At that time, and in the own position of power. first decades following the end of colonial rule, The calm in Egypt is therefore somewhat decep- modernisation was viewed as a secular project, tive. The latent civil war could erupt into open where the polarisation of the Cold War raised conflict again at any time. Nevertheless, even just one question – whether to align with the a sudden crisis involving a domestic dispute is West or the East. Islam was considered part of unlikely to jeopardise the territorial integrity of the problem rather than the solution. Essebsi the Egyptian state. Such lucks status – against embodies the reverberations from that secular- unlucky background – does, however, not apply dominated era, which failed at least partly to Syria nd Libya, where the Arab Spring sparked because the efforts at modernisation resulted a civil war; neither does it apply to Iraq. The bor- in dictatorship and kleptocracy. His electoral ders of these countries were drawn in the 20th success owes itself to the particular situation of century by colonial powers, with no regard for the country, which has traditionally tended to be ethnic, religious, historical or dynastic factors. "moderate" and "bourgeois", and is therefore Their existence ensured that power would stay not representative of the region as a whole. The with monarchs and dictators. The Arab Spring factions that have banded together behind him has led to a disintegration of these state struc- are united by a single goal – not to surrender tures into fragments, the defining characteristic Tunisia to Janus-faced Islamists, who pretend of which is violence, used by the militia to keep to adhere to the rules of democracy, although the population in check. It is naive to think that the radicals among them do not shy away from appealing from afar for them to make peace taking action against other manifestations of and demonstrate a willingness to compromise Islam, including indigenous forms, because they will put it back together again. However, there believe them to be apostasy. are no obvious ruling powers in the region with So there is a good reason why the Arab Spring whom the Europeans could cooperate in good started in Tunisia four years ago, and why it is conscience – with one exception: Over the past the only country where the movement still has 20 years, the Kurds in northern Iraq have man- any prospects. In all the other countries that aged to bring political stability to their autono- saw sparks flying, the uprisings ended in a new mous region and to promote economic develop- wave of repression or in the collapse of the ment. They do not aim to restore the outdated state and civil war. In Egypt, the old elite is once system of states in the Middle East. They strive again fully in charge, with the military forming for a state of their own. And that is the price the the centre of power. It never really let go of Europeans will have to accept if they want to bet the reins, not even during the short period in on the Kurds. which the Muslim Brotherhood was preparing to make political decisions in its own favour. It is Peter Bossdorf February 2015 · European Security & Defence 3 Content The Helsinki Headline Goals The International Market for Frigates Revisited and Surface Combatants In December 1999, the members of the European Globally, procurement efforts for the acquisition of Union formulated ambitious targets in response to frigates over the next 20 years are forecasted at some Europe's military deficits. Fifteen years on, many of $126 billion. A survey of ongoing and forthcoming these plans remain purely theoretical. Page 10 procurement efforts. Page 65 SECURITY POLICY ARMAMENT & PROCUREMENT 10 The Helsinki Headline Goals Revisited 42 NATO's Main IT Projects in 2015 Thomas Bauer Dorothee Frank 12 Dying Hopes for Peace Avi Primor 44 Life Cycle Management and Standardisation in NATO 16 Looking for a “Transeurasian” Mark Hauptmann Peter Janatschek 47 Elements for Enhanced Infantry Firepower COUNTRY FOCUS: DENMARK Jan-Phillipp Weisswange 20 Danish Dynamite 60 Sustainable Options in Military Corrosion Security and Defence in Denmark Defence Thomas Bauer Roman Kernchen 23 Danish Defence in a Time of Change General Peter Bartram INDUSTRY & MARKETS 28 The Danish Defence Industrial Base Barbara Maria Herzog 61 Rising Challengers: New Defence Exporters Are 30 Defence Procurement in Denmark Reshaping International Defence Trade Christian Brøndum Heiko Borchert ARMED FORCES 65 The International Market for Frigates and Major Surface Combatants 33 Quo vadis NATO? – “NATO 3.0” as a Global Player Ted Hooton Admiral Luigi Binelli Mantelli 38 RPV Reconnaissance in Ukraine 73 “Saab stands strong on the global market.” Georg Mader Interview with Håkan Buskhe, CEO, Saab AB 4 European Security & Defence · February 2015 Masthead European Security & Defence COUNTRY FOCUS: DENMARK Issue 1/2015 ISSN 1617-7983 www.euro-sd.com Published by Mittler Report Verlag GmbH A company of the Tamm Media Group Editor-in-Chief: Dr. Peter Bossdorf (pb) Deputy Editor-in-Chief: Henning Bartels (hb) Managing Editor (Magazine): Stephen Barnard (sb) Managing Editor (Newsletter): Dorothee Frank (df) Industrial Editors: Jürgen Hensel (jh), Gerhard Heiming (gwh) Supported by the editorial team of “Europäische Sicherheit & Technik” Publishers: Rainer Metzner, Henning Bartels Layout: davis creativ media GmbH, Bonn, Germany Production: DZA Druckerei zu Altenburg GmbH 04600 Altenburg, Germany Office address: • Defence Policy and Role in NATO Mittler Report Verlag GmbH • Armed Forces in a Time of Change Baunscheidtstraße 11 53113 Bonn, Germany • Defence Procurement Structures and Programmes Phone.: +49 228 3500870 Fax: +49 228 3500871 • Defence Industrial Base Page 20-32 Email: [email protected] www.mittler-report.de Director of Marketing Jürgen Hensel (jh) COLUMNS Baunscheidtstraße 11, 53113 Bonn, Germany Phone: +49 228 3500876, Fax: +49 228 3500871 Email: [email protected] 3 Editorial Advertising Representatives: 5 Masthead Dipl.-Betrw. 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