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Quantifying Human Performance During Passenger Ship Evacuation

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Quantifying Human Performance During Passenger Ship Evacuation QUANTIFYING HUMAN PERFORMANCE DURING PASSENGER SHIP EVACUATION ROBERT CLARKE BROWN A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the University of Greenwich for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy April 2016 DECLARATION I certify that this work has not been accepted in substance for any degree, and is not concurrently being submitted for any degree other than that of Doctor of Philosophy being studied at the University of Greenwich. I also declare that this work is the result of my own investigations except where otherwise identified by references and that I have not plagiarised the work of others. ________________________________ ___________________ Robert Brown Date ________________________________ ___________________ Edwin Galea Date ________________________________ ___________________ Peter Lawrence Date ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to acknowledge the personal financial support received from Engineers Canada in the form of a graduate student fellowship through the Meloche Monnex Corporation, as well as the Society of Fire Protection Engineers Dr. Guylene Proulx, OC, Scholarship for contributions to improving the understanding of human behaviour in fire. My employer - the Marine Institute of Memorial University of Newfoundland was very accommodating and supportive of my efforts in this research. Particularly, Bob Rutherford and Glenn Blackwood who believed in me and helped enable my participation in this project. My good friend and colleague Jim Boone (RIP) for your encouragement - I learned a lot from you and am grateful for the time we worked together. Thank-you to my supervisory team at University of Greenwich – Prof. Ed Galea and Dr. Peter Lawrence; you never cease to amaze me with your depth of knowledge in this field and your ability to see through problems and challenges to the sensible approach on things. Ed, and Peter, thank-you very much also for your unwavering support - it was comforting to know that you were both in my corner throughout this process. I appreciate your efforts and value your intelligence, frankness, honesty and work ethic. Thanks to my colleagues at the University of Greenwich and on the SAFEGUARD project. In particular Steve Deere, Lazaros Filippidis, Jenny Rainbird, Maria Pretorious and Aoife Hunt for your support and assistance throughout this process. You are a tremendously clever, conscientious and fun group to work with and I look forward to the next project. For my parents Belle (RIP) and Gordon as well as my three older siblings, Cathy, Paul and Jacquie - you are all very special to me and I thank-you for your love and lifelong support. To my children Aidan and Kathleen, I am sorry that I have not been there sometimes when you needed me during the last few years and I thank-you both for understanding (or trying to understand) when I wasn’t there. Finally, my partner and lifeline, Michelle, without whom I could never have completed this work; having to deal with my long hours at the computer, frequent crabby moods and simply not being there to help-out with the kids. I am so lucky to have you and your unwavering support, sometimes to the detriment of your own endeavours. Now it is my turn to pick-up the slack! iii ABSTRACT Despite continual improvements in the shipping industry related to structural design, operational practices, onboard technology and regulations, accidents still occur that result in sinking or capsize. When this happens to passenger ships, the results are often shocking and devastating with loss of life, sometimes numbering in the thousands. For this reason, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), which regulates the maritime industry, provides guidelines for evacuation analyses for passenger ships [1]. The scope of work presented in this dissertation fills gaps in our understanding of human performance during the evacuation process on passenger ships, particularly as it relates to passengers’ alarm response time, the influence of response time distributions on total assembly time predicted by the evacuation model maritimeEXODUS, passenger movement onboard during the assembly process, and methods for validation of evacuation models in general. The research carried-out was experimental in nature and involved a total of 5582 passengers onboard three large passengers ships – a ferry without cabins, a ferry with cabins and a cruise ship. All passengers had paid for their voyage and, prior to boarding, had no knowledge that an experiment was being conducted. The experiment was carried- out as a typical assembly exercise, which started with sounding of an alarm and ended when all passengers had been assembled. Passenger response to the alarm was recorded using digital video cameras and routes to assembly stations and associated times were captured using a novel infrared light detection tracking system. The dataset collected represents the most comprehensive collected to date for passenger response and movement during assembly trials at sea. Analysis of the data has provided important insights into the nature of response time distributions for passengers on ferries and cruise ships. It was found that response time distributions generally took a lognormal shape, which is consistent with response time distributions measured in the built environment. Response time distributions generated from repeat trials on the same ship were statistically similar and could be combined to produce a single distribution for each ship - a powerful result suggesting that if the response times and demographics of a sufficiently large number of people are characterised for a given type of structure, an assembly exercise repeated under similar notification conditions should result in a similar distribution. Another key finding was that response iv time in cabin areas was not similar to that in public areas on the same ship. In addition, response times for passengers in public areas on ferries was found to be statistically similar, while public space results for the cruise ship were different. This suggests that different response time distributions should be used for different ship types. Passenger movement results have enabled the development of two unique datasets for use in validating ship evacuation models – one validation dataset which is relevant for ferries without cabins and the other for cruise ships. The validation method developed enables a clear, yet objective means by which ship evacuation models can be assessed using the experimental data collected. It is felt that the suggested validation protocol and acceptance criteria developed form a reliable basis for validating ship evacuation simulation tools. This research has resulted in the submission of two information papers to the IMO suggesting credible response time distributions relevant for different ships and different areas onboard, as well as a detailed method for conducting validation of ship evacuation models. The recommendations being made from this work are significant since, if accepted by the IMO for inclusion in the regulations, will influence the design and construction of all new passenger ships worldwide. v TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ............................................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Summary of Research Area and Objectives ........................................................................................ 7 1.3 Overview of Key Research Questions ................................................................................................ 14 1.4 Thesis Scope ......................................................................................................................................... 18 1.5 Novelty of Research Undertaken as Part of this Thesis .................................................................... 20 1.6 Thesis Outline ...................................................................................................................................... 20 1.7 Chapter Summary ............................................................................................................................... 23 2 Literature Review .......................................................................................... 25 2.1 Emergencies on Passenger Ships ........................................................................................................ 25 2.2 Behaviour of People in Emergency Situations .................................................................................. 35 2.2.1 Overview ........................................................................................................................................ 35 2.2.2 Human Behaviour in Land-Based Evacuation Situations .............................................................. 37 2.2.3 Human Behaviour in Ship-Based Evacuation Situations ............................................................... 42 2.2.3.1 Response Phase Behaviour ..................................................................................................... 45 2.2.3.2 Evacuation Movement Phase Behaviour ................................................................................ 47 2.3 Regulatory Environment ..................................................................................................................... 51 2.3.1 SOLAS ..........................................................................................................................................
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