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1960 - 2017) the Causes and Consequences of Contemporary Spanish Economic Evolution (And Some Guidelines for Improvement

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1960 - 2017) the Causes and Consequences of Contemporary Spanish Economic Evolution (And Some Guidelines for Improvement Treball de Fi de Grau/Màster Màster Universitari en Enginyeria Industrial (MUEI) An analysis of the Spanish economy (1960 - 2017) The causes and consequences of contemporary Spanish economic evolution (and some guidelines for improvement) MEMÒRIA Autor: Cristóbal Millán Ruiz Director: Eric Mengus, HEC Paris Ponent: Eric Mengus Convocatòria: Juny, 2018 Escola Tècnica Superior d’Enginyeria Industrial de Barcelona 1 2 Cristóbal Millán Ruiz Final Research Paper HEC Paris – MiM Grande École An analysis of the Spanish economy (1960 - 2017) The causes and consequences of contemporary Spanish economic evolution (and some guidelines for improvement) “Sábete, Sancho, que no es un hombre más que otro, si no hace más que otro” (1st part, chapter XVIII, El ingenioso hidalgo don Quijote de la Mancha, Miguel de Cervantes) Abstract This work describes, analyses and interprets the main trends that can be found in the evolution and development of the Spanish economy from 1960 to 2018, in order to localize the fundamental causes and consequences of such behaviour which, in turn, will help to build up the main guidelines to follow for the future improvement of the Spanish economy. Through a deep analysis of various indicators and an historical account of the Spanish economy, we will find that the main cause for many of the anomalies, deficiencies and problems faced by the Spanish economy in the last decades was the conscious creation, development and consolidation of an economic system primarily based on a low-productivity service sector, cheap tourism and, very especially, a Great Real Estate and Housing Bubble. Other indirect causes were the availability of cheap capital and plenty of financing opportunities derived from the entrance of Spain in the European Community and the European Monetary Union, financing that was, for the most part, badly used. Finally, a profound reform of the Spanish economy needs to be undertaken if Spain wants to maintain a path of long-term economic growth and prosperity while maintaining the sustainability of the State and, more importantly, the Nation. 3 Cristóbal Millán Ruiz Final Research Paper HEC Paris – MiM Grande École 4 Cristóbal Millán Ruiz Final Research Paper HEC Paris – MiM Grande École 1 INTRODUCTION: OF HOW SPAIN EMERGES AS AN INTERESTING BUT OFTEN ANOMALOUS CASE IN TERMS OF ECONOMIC EVOLUTION ...................... 9 2 OF HOW THE SPANISH ECONOMY EVOLVED IN THE LAST DECADES AND HOW SPAIN ENDED UP IMMERSED IN THE WORST ECONOMIC CRISIS IN DECADES (1960 – 2017). ......................................................................................................... 11 2.1 Population: the forgotten drama ............................................................................. 12 2.2 Gross Domestic Product: improvement but not without obstacles; three main growth cycles .......................................................................................................................... 18 2.3 Expenditure: following the same cycles................................................................... 22 2.3.1 Government expenditure, Public Deficit and Public Debt ................................ 22 2.3.2 External sector .................................................................................................... 24 2.4 Inflation and monetary policy .................................................................................. 25 2.5 Production: the keys to the Spanish economy ........................................................ 28 2.5.1 Labour Force and Employment ......................................................................... 28 2.5.2 Unemployment .................................................................................................... 32 2.5.3 Productive Capacity ............................................................................................ 34 2.5.4 Productivity ......................................................................................................... 38 2.6 Factor Prices and Factor Shares .............................................................................. 41 2.6.1 Capital and Labour shares. Cyclical Labour Shares ........................................ 41 2.6.2 Correlation between real wages and labour productivity .................................. 44 2.6.3 Co-movements between the Capital-to-Output Ratio, Factor Prices, and Factor Shares 45 2.7 The keys of what has been said and shown in this part ......................................... 47 3 OF HOW THE CONSCIOUS EXPERIMENT OF A MODEL BASED ON A LOW PRODUCTIVITY SERVICE SECTOR, CHEAP TOURISM AND CONSTRUCTION ENDED UP TRANSFORMING THE ENTIRE SPANISH ECONOMY (FOR THE WORSE)..................................................................................................................................... 49 3.1 Short-term exuberance, long-term ruin .................................................................. 49 3.1.1 When housing and construction became the (speculative) hegemon: bubble hegemony, generational ruin and debt overhang ............................................................. 50 3.1.1.1 The genealogy of the Great Bubble: the beginnings of the Great Bubble (1986 - 1989), stabilization (1990 - 1997), The Great Bubble’s explosive rise (1986 - 1989) the Great Crisis: Turning Point, Credit Crunch and Debt Overhang (2006 – 2012 .............. 50 3.1.1.1.1 The beginning of the Great Real State and Housing Bubble (1986 - 1989): 52 3.1.1.1.2 Stabilization (1990 - 1997): ...................................................................... 54 3.1.1.1.3 The Great Bubble’s explosive rise (1998 - 2006): .................................... 55 3.1.1.1.4 The Great Crisis: Turning Point, Credit Crunch and Debt Overhang (2006 - 2010): 64 3.1.1.2 The bubble scheme: rationalize the irrational ................................................. 70 5 Cristóbal Millán Ruiz Final Research Paper HEC Paris – MiM Grande École 3.1.2 The Minotaur State: inflated and inefficient administration, unaffordable pension (and welfare) system and ruinous autonomic regime ......................................... 72 3.1.2.1 The administration as a totalizing entity: ever-increasing Welfare and Administrative State. ....................................................................................................... 72 3.1.2.2 The long-term unsustainability of the public pension system: population, productivity, capitalization and income .......................................................................... 81 3.1.2.3 The black hole of the autonomic system: the great obstacle to the true economic development of the country ............................................................................ 86 3.2 The scourge of corruption and the role of institutions: the explosive cocktail of huge capital inflows, weak (and increasingly corrupted) institutions and a housing and real state bubble .................................................................................................................... 89 3.3 The Spanish “(labour) productivity puzzle”: The housing bubble, a low-skilled immigration boom and a dual (and deficient) labour market ........................................... 94 3.3.1 A dual, inefficient and unfair labour system ..................................................... 98 3.3.1.1 Cheap and temporary labour: low productivity, low wages and low promotion 101 3.3.2 Your gates shall be open continually; day and night they shall not be shut. Massive influx of labour needed to keep the pool afloat ................................................. 103 3.4 Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and innovation: bad policy leads to a bad model, and otherwise ....................................................................................................................... 107 3.4.1 Historical complexes, opportunism and short-termism: the deliberate process of deindustrializing Spain, and the consolidation of a model based on low-productivity services, cheap tourism and speculative construction ..................................................... 111 3.4.2 The role of ICT: late acceptance, weak development and mild implementation 122 3.4.3 Innovation and R&D: an endemic underdevelopment of the Spanish economy 124 3.5 The keys of what has been said and shown in this part ....................................... 127 4 CONCLUSIONS: THE REFORM. OF HOW ONLY THE BURIAL OF THE “FARCE MODEL” AND THE STRUCTURAL TRANSITION TO A NEW ONE IS THE ONLY SOLUTION TO PUT THE SPANISH ECONOMY AND NATION BACK ON TRACK .................................................................................................................................... 131 4.1 The Income Approach: The structural transition to a new model of income distribution where Labour and Business are extolled, and unproductive income is repressed (especially construction/housing-related ones):............................................... 131 4.1.1 The “Bison metaphor” to introduce the Income Distribution Approach: ..... 132 4.1.2 The income typology: primary canonical income. Productive and aproductive rents 133 4.1.3 The role of housing in the new system: humiliation, death and final burial of the old model ..................................................................................................................... 135 4.2 The much-needed labour market reform: ............................................................ 136 6 Cristóbal Millán Ruiz Final Research Paper HEC Paris – MiM Grande École 4.3 The
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