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The Paradox of Lessening Racial Inequality and Joblessness Among Black Youth: Enrollment, Enlistment, and Employment, 1964-1981*

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The Paradox of Lessening Racial Inequality and Joblessness Among Black Youth: Enrollment, Enlistment, and Employment, 1964-1981* THE PARADOX OF LESSENING RACIAL INEQUALITY AND JOBLESSNESS AMONG BLACK YOUTH: ENROLLMENT, ENLISTMENT, AND EMPLOYMENT, 1964-1981* ROBERT D. MARE CHRISTOPHER WINSHIP University of Wisconsin-Madison Northwestern University and NORC An important exception to improvementsin the relative socioeconomic status of blacks duringrecent decades is increased levels of joblessness among black youths relative to whites. Few proposed explanationsfor this trend reconcile worsening employment status for- black youths with improvementson other socioeconomic indicators. Threemechanisms that link reducedstatus differencesbetween the races in other spheres with increased disparity in employment are: (1) increased substitutionof schooling and militaryservice for employmentby young blacks; (2) reduced workexperience and disruptedemployment for young blacks at older ages as a result of later average ages leaving school and the armed forces; and (3) "creaming"from the civilian out-of-schoolpopulation of young blacks with above average employmentprospects as a result of higher school enrollmentand military enlistmentrates. Empiricalassessment of these argumentsshows that they account for a substantialpart of the growingracial employmentdifference among men aged 16 to 29. Although racial convergence on school enrollment and educational attainmenthas reduced other socioeconomic inequalities between the races, it has widenedthe employmentdifference. One of the most important changes in 1977; Hill, 1978; Wilson, 1978; Collins, 1983), American society in recent decades has been statistical differences in socioeconomic welfare the lessening of socioeconomic differences between the races have unmistakably declined. between blacks and whites. Since World War The pattern of these changes suggests that II blacks and whites have converged on many these reductions in inequality may indeed per- indicators of socioeconomic status, such as sist inasmuch as the greatest convergence in grades of school completed, the proportion of indicators of educational and labor market suc- workers in managerial and professional occu- cess has occurred for young adults (e.g., pations, earnings, the quality of schools at- Welch, 1973; Smith and Welch, 1978; tended, economic returns to schooling, and Freeman, 1973; Farley, 1983). numbers of elected officials (e.g., Farley, 1983; A key exception to these trends, however, Freeman, 1973, 1976). Although views are has been divergence between the races in mixed on whether these changes indicate the levels of employment and unemployment for permanent break-up of historic patterns of ra- teenagers and young adults. Despite stable or cial inequality in the United States or are converging trends in race differences in job- mainly short-term results of exceptional eco- lessness for adult workers and otherwise salu- nomic growth and political effort (e.g., Farley, tary trends on other socioeconomic indicators 1983; Freeman, 1973; Butler and Heckman, for persons under thirty, race differences in proportions of the youth population employed and proportions of the youth labor force unem- * Direct all correspondence to: Robert D. Mare, ployed have grown. For example, in 1954 black Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin, and white unemployment rates for 16 to 24 year Madison, WI 53706. olds were 15.8 and 9.9 percent respectively, a This research was supported by the National Sci- difference of 5.9 percentage points that grew to ence Foundation and the Wisconsin Center for Edu- 8.7 in 1960 and 12.0 in 1970. In 1980 the rates cation Research. Computations were performed at were 26.4 and 12.0 percent respectively, a dif- the University of Wisconsin Center for Demography ference of 14.4 percentage points. Similarly, and Ecology, supported by the National Institute of the percentage of 16 to 24 year olds who were Child Health and Human Development. We are employed declined for blacks from 47.2 in 1954 grateful to Wayne Bigelow, Ann Kremers, and War- to 40.6 in ren Kubitschek for research assistance, and to Zietta 1980, but increased for whites from Feris and Stuart Rakoff of the Department of De- 49.7 in 1954 to 62.0 in 1980 (U.S. Department fense and Jennifer Peck of the Bureau of the Census of Labor, 1982). These trends represent a dra- for supplying us with unpublished tabulations of the matic deterioration in the relative labor market armed forces. standing of black youths and raise doubts American Sociological Review 1984, Vol. 49 (February:39-55) 39 40 AMERICAN SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW about future convergence in racial socioeco- have differed markedlyfor blacks and whites. nomic trends in the adult labor market when Most important,as a result of more favorable current youth cohorts reach maturity (e.g., family backgrounds, improved quality of Congressional Budget Office, 1982; Freeman schools, reduced discriminationby institutions and Wise, 1982). of higher education, and better labor market Despite the prominenceof these trends, they incentives, black school attendance has in- have not been satisfactorily explained. Many creased markedly over this period. Young proposed explanations focus on social and blacks now spend more of their time in school economic changes believed to hurt black and leave school at later ages than in the past. youths disproportionately:the spread of mini- For whites, school enrollment rates grew mum wage legislation;the rapid growth of the graduallyinto the 1960sbut have been stable or youth populationin the aftermathof the post- declining since then. Similarly, trends in mili- war baby boom; increased labor market com- tary service have differed over this period for petition among, women, immigrants, and blacks and whites. For all men in the period youth; unfavorable changes in the job com- since the mid-1950s the armed forces peaked position and physical location of industry; during the Vietnam mobilization and have shortfalls in aggregate demand for labor; and since contracted. The post-Vietnamera, how- reduced willingness of youths to take low- ever, has witnessed a reversal of historically status employment (e.g., Congressional Bud- higher rates of military enlistment for whites. get Office, 1982; Osterman, 1980). The im- Blacks are now disproportionatelyrepresented portance of these factors has not been deter- in the armed forces and among veterans. mined empirically,although their effects can in Changes in race differences in employment many cases be questioned on the groundsthat may result in part from changing race dif- they appearto alter the employmentchances of ferences in the structureand timing of young black and white youths alike and leave unaf- persons' movement from schooling and the fected the race difference(e.g., Mareand Win- armed forces to work. This article develops ship, 1979). More important, whatever the this conjecture by considering three quantitative impact of these factors, existing arguments:(1) that young blacks, much more accounts of trends in the youth labor force fail than their white counterparts,are increasingly to reconcile the deterioratingtrend in black substitutingschooling and military service for youth employment with progress on other so- work; (2) that delayed ages at leaving school cioeconomic indicators for blacks generally and increased representationin the recent vet- and recent black entrants to the labor force in eran populationhave reduced average years of particular. civilian work experience for young blacks; and This article considers explanations for the (3) that because schools and the militaryretain changingrelative employment status of black young persons with better than average em- and white youths that, at least in part, link this ployment prospects, rising black school en- changeto other trendsmore favorableto young rollmentand militaryenlistment have reduced blacks. It examines the implicationsof racial the average attractivenessto employers of the convergence in patterns of movement from relatively smaller out-of-school civilian youth schoolingand the militaryto work for trends in population that remains. We develop these relative levels of black and white youth em- arguments and assess them empirically using ployment. More specifically, it explores the data from the March CurrentPopulation Sur- effects of trends in school enrollmentand mil- veys (CPS) of 1964 through 1981. itary service for changes in proportionsof the As shown below, these mechanismsaccount races employed amongmen aged 16 to 29 from for a substantial part of the broadeningrace 1964 to 1981. difference in fractions of young persons who High levels of joblessness for young persons are employed. An important feature of our mainly result from their participationin activi- argumentis that it reconciles the salutarytrend ties that compete with work for their time (for toward educational equality between blacks example, schooling or military service); from and whites with broadening employment dif- differences between adults and younger job ferences for young men. It shows that past race seekers in educationalattainment, work expe- differences in youth employment were partly rience, and attractivenessto employers gener- concealed by race differencesin the transitions ally; and from difficulties youth experience in from schooling and the military. The elimina- moving from other activities to full-time par- tion of the latterdifferences reveals substantial ticipation in the labor force (Freeman and and persistent underlying racial inequality in Wise, 1982; Mare et al., forthcoming;Oster-
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