2301 Maitland Center Parkway, Suite 300
Maitland, FL 32751 tel: 407 660-2552 fax: 407 875-1161
July 29, 2014
Ms. Sue Hopwood LeeWay Manager Lee County Department of Transportation 1366 Colonial Boulevard Fort Myers, FL 33907
Subject: Semiannual Traffic and Toll Revenue Report – Fiscal Year 2014 Lee County Toll Facilities
Dear Ms. Hopwood:
CDM Smith is pleased to submit the following Semiannual Traffic and Toll Revenue Report. This report addresses facility performance for the first half of Fiscal Year (FY) 2014, beginning October 1, 2013 and ending March 31, 2014. As with previous semiannual reports, the performance data presented herein is compared to data from the same period in the previous fiscal year. This document will follow essentially the same format as the FY 2013 semiannual report. Any changes in methodology or data sources will be noted in the document.
Total Transactions and Toll Revenue Table 1 contains the total transactions and toll revenue for the three Lee County Toll Facilities over the first half of FY 2014, compared against total transactions and toll revenue from the same time period in the previous fiscal year. As indicated, total systemwide transactions increased by 3.9 percent. Transactions on all three Lee County Toll facilities increased over the same period in FY 2013. The largest increase occurred on the Cape Coral Bridge, with an increase of 5.6 percent over the first half of FY 2013. Transactions on the Sanibel Causeway and the Midpoint Memorial Bridge increased 3.8 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively, over the first half of 2013. Ms. Sue Hopwood July 29, 2014 Page 2
Table 1 Semiannual Transactions and Toll Revenue First Half, FY 2014 vs. FY 2013)
Transactions Transactions Percent Revenue Revenue Percent FY 2014 Average Facility FY 2013 FY 2014 Change FY 2013 FY 2014 Change Toll Rate Midpoint Memorial Bridge3,753,3533,838,7842.3%$ 7,249,672$ 7,693,4636.1%$ 2.00 Cape Coral Bridge3,740,4453,948,9485.66,943,1927,603,0379.51.93 Sanibel Causeway1,613,5171,675,1933.87,765,7568,260,8316.44.93
Total9,107,3159,462,9253.9%$ 21,958,621$ 23,557,3317.3%$ 2.49
With respect to toll revenue, systemwide revenues for the first half of FY 2014 were approximately 23.6 million—an increase of $1,598,710, or 7.3 percent compared with the first half of FY 2013. In general, revenue growth on individual facilities, as well as the overall total for the three facilities, mirrors the growth pattern in transactions. The Sanibel Causeway continues to be the largest contributor of overall systemwide revenue, while the Midpoint Memorial Bridge surpassed the Cape Coral Bridge in revenue generation over the first half of the fiscal year for the third consecutive year. This is likely due to construction on the Cape Coral Bridge during the first few months of FY 2014, which was completed in November of FY 2013.
The results for the first half of FY 2013 represent a milestone in an ongoing trend that has been occurring since the end of the last recession. From FY 2007 through FY 2011, systemwide transactions and revenues persistently declined, but at a diminishing rate. However, in FY 2012, and FY 2014, transactions and revenues for the first half of the fiscal year increased over the prior year. These results reinforce the observation that conditions in the region appear to be stabilizing and returning to a modest growth pattern after a period of decline that lasted several years.
Table 2 shows monthly transactions by individual facility over the first half of the current and preceding fiscal years. The individual monthly results reinforce the observation of stabilizing conditions in the region. The three facilities experienced an increase in transactions during all six months. January appears as the strongest month in terms of year-over-year growth on the Midpoint Memorial Bridge. The month with the highest year-over-year growth on the Cape Coral Bridge and Sanibel Causeway was December. There is some variation between months but the overall trend is relatively stable.
Some volatility among individual months is always expected, due to factors such as changing numbers of weekdays and weekends; changes in the days when holidays occur; and nonrecurring events such as accidents and special events. It is important to note that there was an additional weekday in December 2013, which is a potential contributor to the increase in total monthly traffic in FY 2014, especially on the Midpoint Memorial Bridge and Cape Coral Bridge.
FY 2014 Semiannual Traffic and Toll Revenue Report – Lee County Facilities Ms. Sue Hopwood July 29, 2014 Page 3
Table 2 Comparison of Total Transactions for First Six Months First Half, FY 2014 vs. FY 2013)
Midpoint Memorial Bridge CausewayCapeCoral Bridge Sanibel Percent Percent Percent Month FY 2013 FY 2014 Change FY 2013 FY 2014 Change FY 2013 FY 2014 Change
October 625,261635,1281.6% 602,231638,1106.0% 223,447 232,3374.0%
November 602,173603,4760.2588,185620,0765.4241,433250,4603.7
December625,163642,9482.8594,932635,7556.9246,076262,3526.6
January632,696653,9353.4647,560674,5934.2283,643289,0601.9
February604,138620,9602.8621,563659,3756.1286,199298,2324.2
March663,922682,3372.8685,974721,0395.1332,719342,7523.0
Total3,753,3533,838,7842.3% 3,740,4453,948,9485.6% 1,613,5171,675,1933.8%
Detailed Transactions by Facility While the principal factor affecting toll revenue is the quantity of transactions, this is not a one-to- one relationship. Shifts in the distribution of transactions amongst various vehicle classes and payment types/ programs will influence the result, as can sales of subscriptions to discount and unlimited transaction programs. To illustrate how these trends have played out in FY 2014, Tables 3, 5 and 7 include comparative performance statistics for the first six months of the current and previous fiscal year by vehicle class and payment type, for each of the three facilities. They are complemented by Tables 4, 6 and 8, which show the shifting market shares of particular vehicle classes and payment types.
Midpoint Memorial Bridge Table 3 shows a continuation in the shift toward full fare pay-as-you-go transactions on the Midpoint Memorial Bridge. Full Fare LeeWay transactions grew by 16.2 percent, while LeeWay Variable Discount transactions grew by 16.6 percent, over the first six months of FY 2014. Over the same period, LeeWay Reduced Fare transactions declined by 3.1 percent and Unlimited transactions declined by 5.9 percent. Also, motorcycle traffic declined by 7.0 percent or 1,874 transactions. This is the second year of decline in motorcycle traffic during the first six months of the year after two years of significant growth including 19.1 percent in FY 2012 and 10.3 percent in FY 2011. Large fluctuations in recorded motorcycle traffic in past years may have been due in part to known issues with the manner in which multiple motorcycles were recorded. Lee County developed a software revision designed to automate the process with the goal of limiting errors and reducing unwarranted fluctuations in motorcycle counts.
FY 2014 Semiannual Traffic and Toll Revenue Report – Lee County Facilities Ms. Sue Hopwood July 29, 2014 Page 4
Table 3 Semiannual Transactions by Payment Type and Vehicle Class Midpoint Memorial Bridge (First Half, FY 2014 vs. FY 2013)
Full Fare and Variable Pricing (2-Axle) FY 2013FY 2014Change% Change
Cash1,597,3331,630,81533,4822.1%
Full Fare LeeWay475,659552,61676,95716.2
Full Fare LeeWay Variable Discount134,741157,17122,43016.6
Subtotal – Full Fare and Variable2,207,7332,340,602 132,8696.0%
LeeWay Discounted Programs (2-Axle Vehicles)
LeeWay Reduced Fare961,191930,911- 30,280- 3.2
LeeWay Reduced Fare Variable Discount257,464250,481 - 6,983- 2.7
Subtotal – Reduced Fare1,218,6551,181,392- 37,263- 3.1%
LeeWay Unlimited251,998237,009- 14,989- 5.9
Subtotal – LeeWay Discounted1,470,6531,418,401- 52,252- 3.6%
All Vehicles
Subtotal – 2-Axle Vehicles3,678,3863,759,00380,6172.2%
Motorcycles26,71324,839- 1,874- 7.0
3+ Axle Vehicles48,25454,9426,68813.9
Subtotal – Toll-Paying Traffic 3,753,3533,838,78485,4312.3%
Exempt/Nonrevenue36,77836,356- 422- 1.1
Total3,790,1313,875,14085,0092.2%
Table 4 shows each vehicle type and payment category from Table 3 as a percentage of total transactions on the Midpoint Memorial Bridge. This is intended to illustrate the shifts that take place in payment types and vehicle classes from year to year, as these shifts can have a noticeable impact on revenue. This information also provides useful insight into how the facility is being used and may reflect the changing economic landscape. For instance, a boom in construction typically results in a higher percentage of transactions occurring in the “3+ Axle Vehicles” category while hard economic times often result in a reduction in Unlimited and other pre-paid transaction types.
The first six months of FY 2014 saw continued reductions in market share under the various prepaid discount programs, as well as cash. Pay-as-you-go LeeWay market share grew by an almost equal amount. Cash and LeeWay Reduced Fare transactions continue to represent nearly three fourths of all transactions, despite continued reductions in the market share of these categories.
FY 2014 Semiannual Traffic and Toll Revenue Report – Lee County Facilities Ms. Sue Hopwood July 29, 2014 Page 5
Due to the continuing shift away from cash and discount programs toward Full-Fare LeeWay transactions, overall market share among payments types has continued to change. Overall, Full- Fare LeeWay transactions saw an increase in market share of 1.7 percentage points, suggesting that former discount program subscribers were instead opting to pay full fares. It also suggests that motorists were less able or willing to make the initial outlay of funds required to enroll in the discounted programs, or simply took fewer trips. These are consistent with the trends seen on the facility last year.
Table 4 Percent of Total Transactions by Payment Type and Vehicle Class Midpoint Memorial Bridge (First Half, FY 2014 vs. FY 2013)
Change in
Full Fare and Variable Pricing (2-Axle) FY 2013FY 2014Market Share
Cash42.1% 42.1%- 0.1%
Full Fare LeeWay12.514.31.7
Full Fare LeeWay Variable Discount3.64.10.5
Subtotal – Full Fare and Variable 58.2% 60.4% 2.2%
LeeWay Discounted Programs (2-Axle Vehicles)
LeeWay Reduced Fare25.424.0- 1.3
LeeWay Reduced Fare Variable Discount6.86.5- 0.3
Subtotal – Reduced Fare 32.2% 30.5%- 1.7%
LeeWay Unlimited6.66.1- 0.5
Subtotal – LeeWay Discounted 38.8% 36.6%- 2.2%
All Other Vehicles
Subtotal – 2-Axle Vehicles 97.1% 97.0% 0.0%
Motorcycles0.70.6- 0.1
3+ Axle Vehicles1.31.40.1
Subtotal – Toll-Paying Traffic 99.0% 99.1% 0.0%
Exempt/Nonrevenue1.00.90.0
Total100.0% 100.0%
Cape Coral Bridge Tables 5 and 6 contain the same detailed transaction data for the Cape Coral Bridge. As on the Midpoint Memorial Bridge, the strongest growth occurred in the full fare LeeWay and LeeWay Variable Discount pricing categories, which experienced significant growth of 21.2 percent and 19.1 percent, respectively. Cash transactions increased by 5.4 percent compared to FY 2013, and LeeWay Reduced Fare transactions increased slightly by 0.7 percent. LeeWay Unlimited
FY 2014 Semiannual Traffic and Toll Revenue Report – Lee County Facilities Ms. Sue Hopwood July 29, 2014 Page 6
transactions declined at the steepest rate, with 3.1 percent fewer transactions. Motorcycle transactions increased on the facility during the first six months of FY 2014 by 6.1 percent.
Table 5 Semiannual Transactions by Payment Type and Vehicle Class Cape Coral Bridge (First Half, FY 2014 vs. FY 2013)
Full Fare and Variable Pricing (2-Axle) FY 2013FY 2014Change% Change
Cash1,513,9201,595,01381,0935.4%
Full Fare LeeWay445,672539,98294,31021.2
Full Fare LeeWay Variable Discount131,080156,07124,99119.1
Subtotal – Full Fare and Variable2,090,6722,291,066 200,3949.6%
LeeWay Discounted Programs (2-Axle Vehicles) LeeWay Reduced Fare994,7251,001,6336,9080.7
LeeWay Reduced Fare Variable Discount278,013280,159 2,1460.8
Subtotal – Reduced Fare1,272,7381,281,7929,0540.7%
LeeWay Unlimited309,945300,488- 9,457- 3.1
Subtotal – LeeWay Discounted1,582,6831,582,280- 4030.0%
All Vehicles
Subtotal – 2-Axle Vehicles3,673,3553,873,346199,991 5.4%
Motorcycles29,45631,2661,8106.1
3+ Axle Vehicles37,63444,3366,70217.8
Subtotal – Toll-Paying Traffic 3,740,4453,948,948208,5035.6%
Exempt/Nonrevenue23,42323,147- 276- 1.2
Total3,763,8683,972,095208,2275.5%
Table 6 includes the distribution of transactions between the various vehicle type and payment categories. The overall trend was similar to the Midpoint Memorial Bridge. Full Fare LeeWay categories collectively gained 2.2 percentage points of market share, counteracted by declines in the shares of transactions in all other 2-axle vehicle categories. Cash transactions and all LeeWay Discount Program transactions saw declines in market share. As with the Midpoint Memorial Bridge, the decline in market share of Discounted and Unlimited transactions was outpaced by declines in the sales of these subscription programs (discussed in a later section). However, total revenue did not fall as fast as total transactions, and therefore the average toll paid per transaction increased, reflecting the shift toward more Full Fare transactions.
FY 2014 Semiannual Traffic and Toll Revenue Report – Lee County Facilities Ms. Sue Hopwood July 29, 2014 Page 7
Table 6 Percent of Total Transactions by Payment Type and Vehicle Class Cape Coral Bridge (First Half, FY 2014 vs. FY 2013)
Change in
Full Fare and Variable Pricing (2-Axle) FY 2013FY 2014Market Share
Cash40.2% 40.2%- 0.1%
Full Fare LeeWay11.813.61.8
Full Fare LeeWay Variable Discount3.53.90.4
Subtotal – Full Fare and Variable 55.5% 57.7% 2.1%
LeeWay Discounted Programs (2-Axle Vehicles)
LeeWay Reduced Fare26.425.2- 1.2
LeeWay Reduced Fare Variable Discount7.47.1- 0.3
Subtotal – Reduced Fare 33.8% 32.3%- 1.5%
LeeWay Unlimited8.27.6- 0.7
Subtotal – LeeWay Discounted 42.0% 39.8%- 2.2%
All Other Vehicles
Subtotal – 2-Axle Vehicles 97.6% 97.5%- 0.1% Motorcycles0.80.80.0 3+ Axle Vehicles1.01.10.1 Subtotal – Toll-Paying Traffic 99.4% 99.4% 0.0% Exempt/Nonrevenue0.60.60.0 Total100.0% 100.0%
Sanibel Causeway Table 7 presents Sanibel Causeway transactions over the first half of FY 2014 by vehicle type and payment category. As with the other two facilities, Full Fare LeeWay transactions were the fastest growing category among two-axle vehicles, increasing by 10.9 percent. Cash transactions also increased by 4.5 percent compared to FY 2013. Unlimited Program transactions, which declined on the other two facilities, slightly increased by 0.2 percent on Sanibel Causeway.
Commercial vehicle traffic grew by 8.9 percent while motorcycles declined by 6.6 percent. Overall, full fare transactions continued to outpace discounted transactions on the facility.
FY 2014 Semiannual Traffic and Toll Revenue Report – Lee County Facilities Ms. Sue Hopwood July 29, 2014 Page 8
Table 7 Semiannual Transactions by Payment Type and Vehicle Class Sanibel Causeway (First Half, FY 2014 vs. FY 2013)
Full Fare (2-Axle) FY 2013FY 2014Change% Change
Cash611,487639,06627,5794.5%
Full Fare LeeWay157,391174,58917,19810.9
Subtotal – Full Fare768,878813,65544,7775.8%
LeeWay Discounted Programs (2-Axle Vehicles)
LeeWay Reduced Fare436,671451,22714,5563.3
LeeWay Unlimited371,838372,4626240.2
Subtotal – LeeWay Discounted808,509823,68915,1801.9%
All Vehicles
Subtotal – 2-Axle Vehicles1,577,3871,637,34459,9573.8%
Motorcycles9,6158,983- 632- 6.6
3+ Axle Vehicles26,51528,8662,3518.9
Subtotal – Toll-Paying Traffic 1,613,5171,675,19361,6763.8%
Exempt/Nonrevenue7,9408,029891.1
Total1,621,4571,683,22261,7653.8%
The relative stability in transactions by vehicle class and payment type is also reflected in terms of market share, as shown in Table 8. In spite of the 10.9 percent increase in total transactions in the Full Fare LeeWay category, that category’s market share increased by only 0.9 percent. This is due, in part, to the relatively small share of total transactions in this category. Cash remained the single largest category in terms of total market share, followed by the LeeWay Reduced Fare and LeeWay Unlimited programs. The Unlimited Program represents a significantly higher share of transactions on the Sanibel Causeway (22.1 percent) than on the Midpoint Memorial (6.1 percent) or Cape Coral 7.6 percent) Bridges.
FY 2014 Semiannual Traffic and Toll Revenue Report – Lee County Facilities Ms. Sue Hopwood July 29, 2014 Page 9
Table 8 Percent of Total Transactions by Payment Type and Vehicle Class Sanibel Causeway (First Half, FY 2014 vs. FY 2013)
Change in
Full Fare (2-Axle) FY 2013FY 2014Market Share
Cash37.7% 38.0% 0.3% Full Fare LeeWay9.710.40.9 Subtotal – Full Fare 47.4% 48.3% 0.9%
LeeWay Discounted Programs (2-Axle Vehicles) LeeWay Reduced Fare26.926.8- 0.1 LeeWay Unlimited22.922.1- 0.8 Subtotal – LeeWay Discounted 49.9% 48.9%- 0.9%
All Other Vehicles
Subtotal – 2-Axle Vehicles 97.3% 97.3% 0.0% Motorcycles0.60.5- 0.1 3+ Axle Vehicles1.61.70.1
Subtotal – Toll-Paying Traffic 99.5% 99.5% 0.0% Exempt/Nonrevenue0.50.50.0
Total100.0% 100.0%
Discount Program Sales The Discount Program sales figures and associated revenues over the first half of FY 2014 and FY 2013 are presented in Table 9. As shown, the volume of programs sold increased by 941, or 1.5 percent. Also, program sales revenue increased by 0.6 percent, or $32,411. This represents improvement over previous years, when both program sales and program revenues declined. For example, comparing the first half of FY 2011 to the first half of FY 2010, program sales and revenues declined by 1.3 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively. And program sales and revenues declined by 2.6 percent and 5.1 percent, respectively, from the first half of FY 2009 to the first half of FY 2010. The growth in program sales represents the third year of positive growth since FY 2007.
Total Unlimited Program sales increased by 0.9 percent, with an associated increase in program revenue of 0.2 percent. This was led by decline in Midpoint/ Cape Coral unlimited and reduced fare subscriptions. The Cape Coral/ Midpoint Annual Reduced Fare Program saw the largest decline in number of program sales with 549 fewer programs sold (a 1.4 percent drop). The largest sales revenue decline was associated with the Midpoint/ Cape Coral Annual Unlimited Program, with a decline of $43,824 (3.8 percent) compared to the same period in FY 2013. Sanibel Causeway unlimited and reduced fare subscriptions actually increased.
FY 2014 Semiannual Traffic and Toll Revenue Report – Lee County Facilities Ms. Sue Hopwood July 29, 2014 Page 10
Table 9 Comparison of Semiannual Program Sales/ Revenue First Half, FY 2014 vs. FY 2013)
Program Count (October - March) Program Revenue (October-March)
Program DescriptionFY 2013FY 2014ChangeFY 2013FY 2014Change Sanibel Annual Unlimited2,8792,96788$ 1,070,298$ 1,102,147$ 31,849
Sanibel Annual Reduced Fare8,67610,1881,512543,940566,65222,713
Sanibel Semi-Annual Nov through Apr Unlimited8083322,80022,600- 200
Sanibel Semi-Annual Nov through Apr Reduced Fare2,3302,224- 106113,475112,975- 500
Sanibel Semi-Annual May through Oct Unlimited000000
Sanibel Semi-Annual May through Oct Reduced Fare000 000
Cape/Midpoint Annual Unlimited3,8823,731- 1511,144,1691,100,345- 43,824
Cape/Midpoint Annual Reduced Fare38,25337,704- 5491,402,3601,399,440- 2,920
Cape/Midpoint Semi-Annual Nov through Apr Unlimited 1792719231,91233,7881,876
Cape/Midpoint Semi-Annual Nov through Apr Reduced Fare3,0652,968- 9769,93669,708- 228
Cape/Midpoint Semi-Annual May through Oct Unlimited 000000
Cape/Midpoint Semi-Annual May through Oct Reduced Fare000000
Combination Annual Unlimited42544520299,164311,56312,399
Combination Annual Reduced Fare3,5483,699151359,199 374,50015,301
Combination Semi-Annual Nov through April Unlimited 1532176,8449,1722,328
Combination Semi-Annual Nov through April Reduced Fare418394- 2429,82229,045- 777
Combination Semi-Annual May through Oct Unlimited00 0000
Combination Semi-Annual May through Oct Reduced Fare000000
Dual Annual Sanibel CD - Cape/Midpoint FF9295333,86034,495636
Dual Semi-Annual Nov through April Sanibel CD & Cape/Mid FF40- 49360- 936
Dual Semi-Annual May through Oct Sanibel CD & Cape/Mid FF000000
Dual Annual Sanibel FF - Cape/Midpoint CD157143- 1464,87259,416- 5,456
Dual Semi-Annual Nov through April Sanibel FF & Cape/Mid CD220498648150
Dual Semi-Annual May through Oct Sanibel FF & Cape/Mid CD000000 Total64,00564,946941$ 5,194,083$ 5,226,494$ 32,411
Total program sales across all Reduced Fare programs increased by nearly 1.6 percent, resulting in a program sales revenue increase of 1.3 percent. The majority of program sales occurred during the first half of the fiscal year during the months of October through March.
Violations Table 10 presents the total monthly toll violations for the first six months of FY 2014 as compared with the same period in FY 2013. As shown, violation rates increased from 3.3 percent of total transactions in FY 2013 to 3.6 percent of total transactions in FY 2014. Increases in the violation rate were fairly consistent throughout the period. Monthly violation rates show little variation and range between a low of 3.5 percent in February to a high of 3.7 percent in November and December. It is important to note that the percentages included in Table 10 reflect all violations, specifically
FY 2014 Semiannual Traffic and Toll Revenue Report – Lee County Facilities Ms. Sue Hopwood July 29, 2014 Page 11
those for which a Violation Enforcement System (VES) account was opened and a Toll Due Notice was mailed. The actual number of violations in the first six months of FY 2014 increased by 14.2 percent, or from 301,645 to 344,342. This reflects both the overall increase in traffic and the rising violation rate.
Table 10 Systemwide Violation Percentage First Half, FY 2014 vs. FY 2013)
FY 2013 FY 2014 MonthTotal TrafficTotal Violations% ViolationsTotal TrafficTotal Violations% Violations
October 1,463,52354,4993.7% 1,518,02255,3523.6%
November 1,443,11352,5913.61,484,34654,8113.7
December1,476,32550,0313.41,551,61957,0203.7
January1,575,68847,3443.01,629,26559,1793.6
February1,522,88845,2263.01,589,34754,9953.5
March1,693,91951,9543.11,757,85862,9853.6
Total9,175,456301,6453.3% 9,530,457344,3423.6%
The number of violations which were “coded off” due to unreadable license plate images is presented in Table 11. It is assumed that all transactions which were not “coded off” ultimately resulted in successful collection through the various enforcement avenues available to Lee County. As shown, the collection percentage has dropped slightly when comparing the first six months of FY 2014 to FY 2013. During the first half of FY 2014, 0.46 percent of all transactions were “coded off”, as compared to 0.38 percent during the same period in FY 2013. While there could be a number of reasons for this, it is of note that while total violations were higher in FY 2014, a greater number of these violations were also pursued for collections through the Toll Due Notice process. Overall, code offs” increased by 25 percent, while total violations (as shown in Table 10) increased by 14.2 percent. The resulting collection percentage decreased by 0.08 percent, illustrating that such transactions still represent an almost negligible share of overall traffic on the three Lee County DOT Toll Facilities.
FY 2014 Semiannual Traffic and Toll Revenue Report – Lee County Facilities Ms. Sue Hopwood July 29, 2014 Page 12
Table 11 Systemwide Collection Percentage First Half, FY 2014 vs. FY 2013)
FY 2013 FY 2014 MonthTotal TrafficVES Code OffsCollection % Total TrafficVES Code OffsCollection %
October 1,463,5237,18899.51% 1,518,0225,93299.61%
November 1,443,1136,13399.581,484,3466,67999.55
December1,476,3255,28499.641,551,6197,48599.52
January1,575,6885,43699.661,629,2657,34699.55
February1,522,8885,13799.661,589,3477,42099.53
March1,693,9195,79899.661,757,8588,84899.50 Total9,175,45634,97699.62% 9,530,45743,71099.54%
Traffic Volume Comparisons
CDM Smith collected traffic information for both the Caloosahatchee and Edison US 41 Business Bridges in order to better understand how traffic on the Cape Coral and Midpoint Memorial Bridges perform relative to these competing routes. A review of traffic data for the first six months of FY 2014 and FY 2013 on these four facilities crossing the Caloosahatchee River is presented in Table 12. It is important to note that traffic volumes for the Lee County facilities are for the tolled direction only, while the traffic data for the competing routes represents total traffic. This is consistent with the last several Annual and Semiannual reports, as data is no longer collected in the non-tolled direction on the Cape Coral and Midpoint Memorial Bridges.
As indicated in Table 12, total traffic across all four river crossings increased by approximately 19.7 percent during the first six months of FY 2014 when compared to the previous year, a substantial change from the previous year when screenline traffic decreased 11.3 percent. The Caloosahatchee Bridge was the top performing facility of the four, posting a significant increase of 28.3 percent in average daily traffic (ADT), while the Midpoint Memorial Bridge had the smallest increase of 2.3 percent.1 Combined, the non-tolled bridges saw a 25.1 percent increase in ADT, whereas the tolled facilities saw growth of 3.9 percent. This is a change from the previous year during which the non- tolled and tolled bridges all saw declines over the previous year.
1 The year-over-year percent growth on the tolled facilities presented in this section differs slightly from that shown in Tables 1, 3 and 5. This is due to the fact that this section discusses average daily traffic (ADT), not total traffic.
FY 2014 Semiannual Traffic and Toll Revenue Report – Lee County Facilities Ms. Sue Hopwood July 29, 2014 Page 13
Table 12 Caloosahatchee River Screenline First Half, FY 2014 vs. FY 2013)
Average Daily Traffic Percent FacilityFY 2013FY 2014Change
Edison Bridge - US 41 Business 1 24,18629,05820.1%
Caloosahatchee Bridge - US 41 1 36,17446,42428.3
Total - Toll Free Bridges60,36075,48225.1
Midpoint Memorial Bridge20,62321,0922.3
Cape Coral Bridge20,55221,6985.6
Total - Tolled Bridges41,17542,7903.9
TOTAL161,894193,75319.7% Source: Traffic Count Reports, 2013 and 2014, Lee County DOT
A comparison of traffic volumes for a selection of other locations in the region is presented in Table 13 and Figure 1. Note that due to limited availability of data, the values presented in the following tables and figures only cover October through December. As such, average daily traffic volumes differ slightly from those presented in Table 12. Overall, traffic across the region has increased when compared with the same period in the previous fiscal year, with six of seven locations registering year-over-year increases and one showing a decline. It is unclear whether the increases in traffic seen in Table 13 are due to a region wide increase in travel demand, or other more local factors, such as construction impacts or changes in travel patterns. However, it is clear that there is continuing volatility at many of these locations. For example, the same locations experienced declines in traffic in FY 2013 compared to FY 2012.
FY 2014 Semiannual Traffic and Toll Revenue Report – Lee County Facilities Ms. Sue Hopwood July 29, 2014 Page 14
Table 13 Comparison of Annual Average Daily Traffic Competing and Contributing Routes October – December FY 2014 vs. FY 2013)
Road/FacilityFY 2013FY 2014Percent Change
College Parkway33,45032,129- 3.9%
Colonial Boulevard51,67452,5111.6
Daniels Parkway36,98746,24125.0
Edison Bridge - U.S. 41 Business22,97528,10922.3
Hancock Bridge Parkway17,89820,62115.2
Pondella Road17,64018,2433.4
Caloosahatchee Bridge - U.S. 41 32,41647,70747.2 Source: Traffic Count Reports, 2013 and 2014, Lee County DOT
Events Influencing Toll Transactions and Revenue There have not been any other major events or incidents that would have had a serious impact on traffic and revenue through the first half of FY 2014. However, the following events, incidents, and construction activities were identified as having some potential impact:
On November 11, 2013, the Midpoint Memorial Bridge was closed to traffic from 6:30 pm until 8:30 pm for a Veterans Day race.
On February 5, 2014, the Midpoint Memorial Bridge was closed from 12:00 am until 4:40 am due to a motorcycle accident.
No other weather events, emergencies, or major accidents were reported.
FY 2014 Semiannual Traffic and Toll Revenue Report – Lee County Facilities Ms. Sue Hopwood July 29, 2014 Page 15
Figure 1 Percent Change in Traffic Volume Competing and Contributing Routes October – December FY 2014 vs. FY 2013)
FY 2014 Semiannual Traffic and Toll Revenue Report – Lee County Facilities Ms. Sue Hopwood July 29, 2014 Page 16
Socioeconomic Factors Socioeconomic trends are a significant driver of overall travel demand in the region. This is especially important given the most recent economic recession and the disproportionate impacts on Southwest Florida. Since 2007, all CDM Smith traffic and toll revenue products developed for Lee County have included an overview of regional economic performance. Socioeconomic data related to housing permits, foreclosures, and employment levels are included in the review. Data is both readily available and updated with greater frequency than other economic indicators and has proven useful in assessing the region’s overall economic state and trajectory.
Between 2007 and 2009, a dramatic downturn in the housing market had been experienced throughout the United States. This downturn was particularly severe in Florida and in the Cape Coral-Fort Myers area, where population growth was robust prior to the downturn, and where new home construction was a significant contributor to the broader economy. Following rapid economic growth in the region in the early 2000s, new housing construction came to a near standstill. As many of the jobs created in the earlier part of the decade resulted from the booming housing industry, the national housing downturn had an especially severe impact on the region’s economy, resulting in a decrease in overall travel demand.
Table 14 contains the total number of housing units for which new building permits were issued during the first half of Fiscal Years 2007 through 2014. As shown, new home construction declined by over 90 percent during the most recent recession from 2007 through 2009, when the housing market collapse was at its worst. Since 2009, new housing permits have increased by nearly 300 percent as of the first half of FY 2014. New units permitted in the first half of FY 2014 increased by 64.4 percent over the same period in FY 2013, driven largely by a substantial bump in the months of December and January. During the six month period, year-over-year growth ranged from a low of a 10.8 percent increase to a high of 160.8 percent. New permits remain 61.2 percent below FY 2007, prior to the housing market collapse. It is unlikely that this pace will be achieved for some time, if ever, but the continued upward trajectory nevertheless suggests that further growth is still possible in the near term.
FY 2014 Semiannual Traffic and Toll Revenue Report – Lee County Facilities Ms. Sue Hopwood July 29, 2014 Page 17
Table 14 Permitted New Housing Units – Cape Coral/ Ft. Myers First Half, FY 2007 through FY 2014)
Total Units Permitted Percent Change MonthFY 2007FY 2008FY 2009FY 2010FY 2011FY 2012FY 2013FY 2014FY 07 - FY 09FY 09 - FY 14FY 13 - FY 14
October9082401437677121186246- 84.3% 72.0% 32.3%
November654108596385355136201- 91.0% 240.7% 47.8%
December5826975627876158363- 87.1% 384.0% 129.7%
January705220481068597143373- 93.2% 677.1% 160.8%
February6841366514773138240266- 90.5% 309.2% 10.8%
March1,17210071115148180248377- 93.9% 431.0% 52.0% Total4,7058734615695469671,1111,826- 90.2% 296.1% 64.4%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Mortgage default levels and foreclosures in the region are another lingering factor in the health of the real estate market. A high rate of foreclosures can have a broader impact on a region’s overall housing market by undermining general property values, not just those that are distressed. In addition, a high rate of foreclosure results in a larger number of homes being on the market which, in turn, lowers demand for new construction. In Lee County, new foreclosure filings are still considerably higher than the state and nation as a whole. In Lee County, one in every 672 homes received a new foreclosure filing in May 2014, according to real estate website RealtyTrac. This rate declined by approximately 71.4 percent compared with a year ago, when home foreclosures filings occurred at a rate of one in 392 homes per month, and is substantially lower than the rate of one in 326 homes the year before that. It is also lower than the statewide average of one in 436, and nearly twice the national rate of one in 1199. By comparison, the monthly Lee County new foreclosure filing rate at the time of the FY 2008 Semiannual Report, during the height of the recession, was one in 90.
Regional employment statistics are another excellent indicator of the general economic health of the region. Figure 2 contains the year-over-year trend in employment, by month, atthe national, state, and county level, for each of the first six months of FY 2014 compared to the same period in FY 2013. The results show that during the months of October, November, December and March, the employment growth in the region has outpaced the state and national growth. This is the third year of regional employment growth after periods of decline. Growth occurred in all six months, which is a sizeable shift from FY 2011, employment in the county declined for all six months, even as employment at the statewide and national level was growing.
FY 2014 Semiannual Traffic and Toll Revenue Report – Lee County Facilities Ms. Sue Hopwood July 29, 2014 Page 18
Figure 2 Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (not seasonally adjusted) First Half, FY 2014 vs. FY 2013)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
As recovery progresses, CDM Smith expects to see overall travel demand and facility usages on the Lee County Toll Facilities grow as well, as transactions still remain well below peaks that occurred prior to the recession. However, because travel demand often lags economic indicators it may be some time before traffic returns to pre-recession levels, especially considering the rapid rate of economic growth that took place in the region leading up to the recession.
Budget, Performance to Date, and Coverage Lee County, through bond covenants, is required to maintain net revenues in excess of 120 percent of senior lien debt obligations after deducting maintenance and operating expenses. Lee County financial information for the first six months of FY 2014 is presented in Tables 15 through 17. These tables contain financial information necessary to determine whether Lee County Toll Facilities are on track to meet the requirements set forth by the bond covenant for FY 2014. Table 15 contains gross toll revenues through March 2014, compared against the annual revenue estimate from the Lee County Financial Budget Status (FBS) report as of March 31, 2014, as well as revenue estimates from the 2005 Bond Official Statement (OS).
As shown, gross toll revenues in FY 2014 are on pace to meet the annual budgeted revenues, as systemwide revenues over the first six months of the fiscal year have amounted to 63.3 percent of the total annual budgeted amount. Performance versus the budget has been similar on each of the three individual facilities, with revenue as a percentage of the budget ranging from 60.3 to 64.9
FY 2014 Semiannual Traffic and Toll Revenue Report – Lee County Facilities Ms. Sue Hopwood July 29, 2014 Page 19
percent. Revenue from LeeWay operations, derived primarily from transponder sales, totaled 173.1 percent of the budgeted total for the fiscal year.
When compared with the 2005 Bond OS, total revenue will likely fall short of forecasted values. This was expected, given that the 2005 estimates were produced prior to the recession and could not have accounted for the large downturn in travel demand that resulted. The revised expectation for lower revenues is reflected in the budgeted revenues for the current fiscal year, which is 30.1 percent lower than the forecast included in the 2005 Bond OS.
Table 15 Estimated and Actual Gross Toll Revenues, FY 2014 000)
2005 Bond Estimated Gross Year-to-Date OS Forecast Annual Revenue Toll Revenue Percent Variance Facility for FY 2014 ( Current Budget)1 Year-to-Date from Budget1 Midpoint Memorial Bridge$ 20,900$ 12,270$ 7,39460.3%
Cape Coral Bridge18,50012,0007,30460.9
Sanibel Causeway13,80012,5008,11164.9
LeeWay OperationsN/A432748173.1
Total$ 53,200$ 37,202$ 23,55763.3%
1) Values based on the 3/31/2014 Lee County Financial Budget
Table 16 contains actual and estimated FY 2014 expenditures for the three Lee County Toll Facilities. Year-to-date operating expenses, expenses estimated in the 2005 Bond OS, and budgeted expenses have been included in the comparison. As illustrated in Table 16, expenditures-to-date for the first half of FY 2014 are less than 50.0 percent of annual budgeted values, indicating that Lee County is on pace to finish the fiscal year at or under budget in terms of expenditures. It should be noted that the expenditures shown in Table 16 are for the facilities themselves and do not include any distributed expenses associated with the LeeWay Service Center, which exists as a separate expenditure category.
FY 2014 Semiannual Traffic and Toll Revenue Report – Lee County Facilities Ms. Sue Hopwood July 29, 2014 Page 20
Table 16 Estimated and Actual Total Expenditures, FY 2014 000)
2005 Bond Estimated Operating Year-to-Date OS Forecast Annual Expenses Expense Percent Variance Facility for FY 2014 ( Current Budget)1 Year-to-Date from Budget1 Midpoint Memorial Bridge$ 5,600$ 2,716$ 1,29747.8%
Cape Coral Bridge5,9002,5121,25950.1
Sanibel Causeway2,6001,96986944.1
LeeWay OperationsN/A2,1581,10551.2
Total$ 14,100$ 9,355$ 4,53048.4%
1) Values based on the 3/31/2012 Lee County Financial Budget Status
The year-to-date senior lien debt coverage calculation is presented in Table 17. Bonded debt payments are made twice annually, in October and April. Given that this semiannual report covers the period from October through March, the year-to-date debt service figure includes only the October principle payments. Because the April debt service payments have already been made as of the writing of this report, the value shown for Budgeted Debt Service for the entirety of FY 2014 second column) reflects these actual payments, and is therefore considered to be a “final” number that is unlikely to change between now and the end of the fiscal year since no further bond payments are expected.
As shown in Table 17, Lee County Toll Facility debt service coverage for the first six months of FY 2014 is on pace to meet and exceed the requirements set forth in the bond covenant, assuming that the three toll facilities do not encounter any significant unforeseen impact during the remainder of FY 2014. In fact, net revenue collected year-to-date already exceeds the 120 percent threshold for annual debt service coverage, meaning that the bond covenant has, in essence, already been satisfied for FY 2013. On-target expenditures coupled with better-than-forecast revenue performance should result in year-end bond coverage ratios that exceed bond covenant requirements. At this time, no foreseeable impacts exist which would disrupt current trends so drastically as to allow the FY 2014 coverage ratio to fall below the covenanted value of 120 percent.
FY 2014 Semiannual Traffic and Toll Revenue Report – Lee County Facilities Ms. Sue Hopwood July 29, 2014 Page 21
Table 17 Year-to-Date Senior Lien Debt Coverage, FY 2014
FY 2014 FY 2014 Budgeted Year-to-Date
Line ItemOct MarOct- Mar-
Total Gross Revenues$ 37,202$ 23,557
Total M&O Costs- 9,355- 4,530
Total Net Revenue27,84719,027
Annual Debt Service- 8,573- 5,182
Bond Coverage Ratio3.253.67 Source: Lee County Note: Final bond coverage ratio will be reported in the FY 2014 Annual Report.
CDM Smith would like to take this opportunity to thank Lee County for their input and valuable contributions to this report. We trust that this semiannual report will meet your needs. Please contact us if the report can in any way be made more responsive or if you have any questions.
Sincerely,
CDM Smith
Hugh W. Miller, Jr. P.E., PhD Jennifer T. Bleau Vice President Planner
Disclaimer:
CDM Smith is not, and has not been, a municipal advisor as defined in Federal law (the Dodd Frank Bill) to Lee County Department of Transportation (LeeDOT) and does not owe a fiduciary duty pursuant to Section 15B of the Exchange Act to LeeDOT with respect to the information and material contained in this report. CDM Smith is not recommending and has not recommended any action to LeeDOT. LeeDOT should discuss the information and material contained in this report with any and all internal and external advisors that it deems appropriate before acting on this information.
FY 2014 Semiannual Traffic and Toll Revenue Report – Lee County Facilities