YG Entertainment (122870 KQ ) Lineup is back, but concerts come to a halt

Entertainment 1Q20 review: Widely anticipated weakness Company Report For 1Q20, YG Entertainment announced consolidated revenue of W52.8bn (-18.3% YoY; all growth figures hereafter are YoY) and an operating loss of W2.1bn (remaining in the red). Fewer artist May 14, 2020 activities and poor subsidiary earnings were mainly to blame for the quarterly loss. That said, the weakness stemming from the company’s artist void was widely anticipated.

At the parent level, the company posted operating profit of W1.9bn (-33.2%). Elsewhere, losses from YG Plus (W2.2bn), YGX (dance academy), and YG Japan totaled W4bn. Looking at core (Downgrade) Trading Buy businesses, album/digital music sales and management revenue fell 12% and 15.2%, respectively. The company recorded 120,000 album sales and recognized concert income from WINNER’s Asia Target Price(12M, W) ▼ 36,000 tour and BLACKPINK’s Japan dome tour (partial). On the non-operating side, the company booked W4.5bn in valuation losses on securities (Tencent Music Entertainment, etc.). Share Price (05/13/20, W) 30,650 Lineup is back, but monetization faces challenges Expected Return 17% Big Bang has finally made its comeback. After a busy global schedule in 2H19, BLACKPINK looks ready to make its return. The new group Treasure’s debut also appears imminent. The active presence of five groups with the potential to attract arena-level attendance and the liquidation of loss-making businesses are all positives to the company. OP (20F, Wbn) 3 Consensus OP (20F, Wbn) 18 However, the COVID-19 outbreak has brought concerts to a complete halt, putting a break on the company’s artist monetization. Over the past five years, concerts (excluding those in Japan) EPS Growth (20F, %) - accounted for 13.9% of overall revenue. Further including royalties from Japanese concerts (17.2% Market EPS Growth (20F, %) 27.5 of revenue), which directly translate into profits, concerts represent a significant portion of the P/E (20F, x) 110.6 company’s revenue. Market P/E (20F, x) 13.0 KOSDAQ 691.53 Suspension of tours is worrying, given ties to album releases Because the biggest appeal of concerts is the “liveness” of the experience, we think technological Market Cap (Wbn) 558 advancements are unlikely to completely fill the gap. We thus believe entertainment agencies Shares Outstanding (mn) 18 need to focus on propping up other existing revenue sources (album/digital music/ TV Free Float (%) 65.7 appearances), while also taking steps that can boost the expected returns on concerts once Foreign Ownership (%) 15.8 things get back to normal. However, recent concerns over a second outbreak suggest the return Beta (12M) 0.80 of live concerts could be further pushed back. Given that new album releases are typically ti ed to 52-Week Low 19,450 tour schedules, uncertainties surrounding concerts could lead to a prolonged slump in album releases. As of now, Lady Gaga’s new album (which features BLACKPINK) will be released in May , 52-Week High 35,850 while Treasure’s debut album is set to come out in July. (%) 1M 6M 12M Downgrade to Trading Buy and cut TP to W36,000 Absolute 9.5 20.0 -8.6 Relative -5.5 14.8 -6.4 We cut our target price on YG Entertainment by 10% to W36,000, as we revised down our 2021F net profit by 10% in light of the uncertainties related to concerts. Due to the reduced upside 110 YG Entertainment KOSDAQ potential, we downgrade our rating to Trading Buy. 100 90 We continue to favor YG Entertainment over the other two major entertainment agencies, as we 80 believe the company stands to benefit the most from an improvement in Korea-China relations, 70 given Big Bang/BLACKPINK’s significant presence in China (as demonstrated by recent ads and TV appearances). We are also bullish on the company’s expanding lineup and potential for success in 60 North America (through partnerships and YouTube). For these reasons, we believe the company 50 5.19 9.19 1.20 5.20 merits a higher valuation. That said, the delays in earnings improvement due to COVID-19 are a concern. We recommend taking a trading approach, paying attention to both potential improvements in Korea-China relations and risks of a second wave of infections. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd.

[ Media ] FY (12) 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/20F 12/21F Revenue (Wbn) 322 350 269 264 237 311 Jeong -yeob Park +822 -3774 -1652 OP (Wbn) 32 24 20 1 3 31 [email protected] OP Margin (%) 9.9 6.9 7.4 0.4 1.3 10.0

NP (Wbn) 19 18 18 -22 5 26 EPS (W) 1,094 931 911 -1,118 277 1,435 ROE (%) 7.7 5.7 5.1 -6.2 1.5 7.4

P/E (x) 25.9 31.0 52.2 - 110.6 21.4 P/B (x) 1.8 1.6 2.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 Dividend Yield (%) 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

May 14, 2020 YG Entertainment

Table 1. Valuation (Wbn)

Valuation - P/E 21F Fair market cap 654 Net profit 26 Base year change Target P/E 25.0 (2020F ‰ 2021F) Fair price (W) 36,000 17.5% upside Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Table 2. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %, mn tickets, %p) 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20P 2Q20F 3Q20F 4Q20F 2018 2019 2020F Revenue 65 78 64 58 53 47 59 77 269 264 237 Products 19 26 23 22 17 20 25 26 101 90 88 Management 43 50 38 43 36 27 34 52 185 175 149 Gross profit 17.3 22.5 18.1 22.5 17.3 16.2 19.8 25.0 90 80 78 Operating profit -2.7 -0.1 -3.2 6.9 -2.1 -2.3 0.9 6.3 20 1 3 OP margin (%) -4.4 -0.1 -5.2 11.9 -4.0 -4.9 1.6 8.1 7.4 0.3 1.2 Pretax profit 14.3 -9.3 -7.7 0.6 -5.7 -0.3 2.9 8.3 37 -2 5 Net profit 7.3 -6.4 -6.4 -19.2 -8.9 -0.3 2.6 7.4 16 -25 1 Net margin (%) 11.3 -8.1 -10.0 -33.2 -16.8 -0.7 4.5 9.6 5.9 -9.3 0.4 Net profit attributable to controlling interests 8.4 -6.1 -4.8 -19.0 -4.2 -0.3 2.5 7.1 17.8 -21.5 5.0 YoY Revenue -16.3 24.5 -2.3 -9.1 -18.3 -39.3 -7.3 33.4 -23.1 -1.7 -10.5 Products -2.9 -0.9 -22.6 -14.4 -12.0 -20.0 7.7 17.3 -23.9 -11.2 -2.0 Management -26.1 36.0 9.1 -20.9 -15.2 -46.3 -11.5 18.7 -14.9 -5.5 -14.9 Gross profit -15.4 3.4 -16.1 -14.4 -0.1 -27.9 9.9 11.1 -10.6 -10.7 -2.5 Operating profit TTR TTR TTR -50.0 TTR TTR TTB -9.5 -18.0 -95.5 213.2 Net profit 837.0 TTR TTR TTR TTR TTR TTB TTB 33.9 TTR TTB Major assumptions Japanese concert ticket sales volume 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.4 0.4 1.0 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Figure 1. G-Dragon (Big Bang) filmed a TV commercial in Figure 2. Lisa (BLACKPINK) working as a dance mentor on a

China Chinese audition reality show

Source: Press materials, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Press materials, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 May 14, 2020 YG Entertainment

Figure 3. Live Nation shares have yet to bounce back

(US$) 80 Share price (adj.)

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0 1/19 2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19 1/20 2/20 3/20 4/20 5/20

Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Figure 4. YouTube views by label: View count sluggish amid reduced new album releases

(mn views) 800 SM (SMTOWN) JYP (jypentertainment + TWICE) YG (YG ENTERTAINMENT + BLACKPINK + iKON + WINNER) New BTS album 600 Big Hit (Big Hit Labels + BANGTANTV)

400

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0 9/15 1/16 5/16 9/16 1/17 5/17 9/17 1/18 5/18 9/18 1/19 5/19 9/19 1/20

Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Figure 5. YouTube channel subscriptions by label: Global growth continues

(mn persons) 80 SM (SMTOWN) JYP (jypentertainment + TWICE) 70 YG (YG ENTERTAINMENT + BLACKPINK + iKON + WINNER) 60 Big Hit (Big Hit Labels + BANGTANTV)

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0 9/15 1/16 5/16 9/16 1/17 5/17 9/17 1/18 5/18 9/18 1/19 5/19 9/19 1/20

Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

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YG Entertainment (122870 KQ/Trading Buy/TP: W36,000)

Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/18 12/19 12/20F 12/21F (Wbn) 12/18 12/19 12/20F 12/21F Revenue 269 264 237 311 Current Assets 233 160 170 206 Cost of Sales 179 184 158 202 Cash and Cash Equivalents 59 48 36 47 Gross Profit 90 80 79 109 AR & Other Receivables 30 19 25 32 SG&A Expenses 70 80 76 78 Inventories 23 16 21 28 Operating Profit (Adj) 20 1 3 31 Other Current Assets 121 77 88 99 Operating Profit 20 1 3 31 Non-Current Assets 362 356 371 394 Non-Operating Profit 17 -3 2 5 Investments in Associates 24 23 30 40 Net Financial Income 5 2 -1 -1 Property, Plant and Equipment 105 149 140 132 Net Gain from Inv in Associates 0 0 0 0 Intangible Assets 61 52 50 48 Pretax Profit 37 -2 5 36 Total Assets 594 516 541 600 Income Tax 12 12 4 9 Current Liabilities 63 77 102 133 Profit from Continuing Operations 25 -14 1 27 AP & Other Payables 32 33 44 58 Profit from Discontinued Operations -9 -11 0 0 Short-Term Financial Liabilities 3 13 17 22 Net Profit 16 -25 1 27 Other Current Liabilities 28 31 41 53 Controlling Interests 18 -22 5 26 Non-Current Liabilities 82 18 18 19 Non-Controlling Interests -2 -3 -4 1 Long-Term Financial Liabilities 80 17 17 17 Total Comprehensive Profit 17 -24 1 27 Other Non-Current Liabilities 2 1 1 2 Controlling Interests 19 -21 1 27 Total Liabilities 145 95 120 152 Non-Controlling Interests -2 -3 0 0 Controlling Interests 359 337 340 367 EBITDA 28 19 14 41 Capital Stock 9 9 9 9 FCF (Free Cash Flow) -1 19 13 39 Capital Surplus 209 210 210 210 EBITDA Margin (%) 10.4 7.2 5.9 13.2 Retained Earnings 140 115 120 146 Operating Profit Margin (%) 7.4 0.4 1.3 10.0 Non-Controlling Interests 90 85 81 82 Net Profit Margin (%) 6.7 -8.3 2.1 8.4 Stockholders' Equity 449 422 421 449

Cash Flows (Summarized) Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/18 12/19 12/20F 12/21F 12/18 12/19 12/20F 12/21F Cash Flows from Op Activities 22 60 13 39 P/E (x) 52.2 - 110.6 21.4 Net Profit 16 -25 1 27 P/CF (x) 35.6 30.3 32.1 11.9 Non-Cash Income and Expense 10 42 16 20 P/B (x) 2.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 Depreciation 4 14 9 8 EV/EBITDA (x) 32.1 30.0 41.9 14.0 Amortization 4 3 2 2 EPS (W) 911 -1,118 277 1,435 Others 2 25 5 10 CFPS (W) 1,335 903 953 2,577 Chg in Working Capital -2 43 1 2 BPS (W) 18,407 18,508 18,716 20,151 Chg in AR & Other Receivables 6 7 -5 -6 DPS (W) 150 0 0 0 Chg in Inventories -9 4 -5 -7 Payout ratio (%) 17.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Chg in AP & Other Payables -15 4 4 5 Dividend Yield (%) 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Income Tax Paid -16 -15 -4 -9 Revenue Growth (%) -23.1 -1.9 -10.2 31.2 Cash Flows from Inv Activities -66 12 -19 -24 EBITDA Growth (%) -17.6 -32.1 -26.3 192.9 Chg in PP&E -23 -40 0 0 Operating Profit Growth (%) -16.7 -95.0 200.0 933.3 Chg in Intangible Assets -2 1 0 0 EPS Growth (%) -2.1 - - 418.1 Chg in Financial Assets 153 14 -19 -24 Accounts Receivable Turnover (x) 8.9 13.9 13.2 13.2 Others -194 37 0 0 Inventory Turnover (x) 12.9 13.5 12.6 12.6 Cash Flows from Fin Activities 1 -83 4 5 Accounts Payable Turnover (x) 16.3 16.0 10.6 10.2 Chg in Financial Liabilities 7 -54 4 5 ROA (%) 2.7 -4.4 0.2 4.8 Chg in Equity 0 0 0 0 ROE (%) 5.1 -6.2 1.5 7.4 Dividends Paid -3 -3 0 0 ROIC (%) 7.3 3.0 0.3 13.2 Others -3 -26 0 0 Liability to Equity Ratio (%) 32.2 22.5 28.5 33.8 Increase (Decrease) in Cash -40 -11 -11 10 Current Ratio (%) 371.2 209.3 167.6 155.2 Beginning Balance 99 59 48 36 Net Debt to Equity Ratio (%) -13.4 -4.6 -12.8 -13.4 Ending Balance 59 48 36 47 Interest Coverage Ratio (x) 10.3 0.4 30.5 304.9 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4 May 14, 2020 YG Entertainment

APPENDIX 1

Important Disclosures & Disclaimers 2-Year Rating and Target Price History

Company (Code) Date Rating Target Price (W) YG Entertainment (122870) 05/14/2020 Trading Buy 36,000 YG Entertainment 80,000 02/27/2020 Buy 40,000

11/29/2019 Hold - 60,000 05/14/2019 Buy 49,000 10/24/2018 Buy 60,000 40,000 08/12/2018 Buy 43,000 20,000 07/22/2018 Trading Buy 43,000

05/13/2018 Trading Buy 30,000 0 05/14/2020 Trading Buy 36,000 May 18 May 19 May 20

Stock Ratings Industry Ratings Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening Sell : Relative performance of -10% Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (─), Target price (▬), Not covered ( ■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell ( ◆)) * Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months. * Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd., we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development. * The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings. * The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.

Equity Ratings Distribution & Investment Banking Services Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell Equity Ratings Distribution 82.04% 12.57% 5.39% 0.00% Investment Banking Services 80.77% 11.54% 7.69% 0.00% * Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of March 31, 2020)

Disclosures As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subj ect company and do not own 1% or more of the subject company's shares outstanding.

Analyst Certification The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws or regulations thereof. Each Analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the Analyst about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report and (ii) no part of the compensation of the Analyst was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. Like all employees of Mirae Asset Daewoo, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Daewoo except as otherwise stated herein.

Disclaimers This report was prepared by Mirae Asset Daewoo, a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Korea and a member of the Korea Exchange. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but such information has not been independently verified and Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Korean language. In case of an English translation of a report prepared in the Korean language, the original Korean language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report. The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws or regulations or subject Mirae Asset Daewoo or any of its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction shall receive or make any use hereof. This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and shall not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments. The report does not constitute investment advice to any person and such person shall not be treated as a client of Mirae Asset Daewoo by virtue of receiving this report. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 5 May 14, 2020 YG Entertainment

situations, or needs of individual clients. The report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Information and opinions contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may depreciate or appreciate, and investors may incur losses on investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising out of the use hereof. Mirae Asset Daewoo may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the opinions presented in this report. The reports may reflect different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. Mirae Asset Daewoo may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the opinions and views expressed in this research report. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents. Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies to provide investment banking, market-making or other financial services as are permitted under applicable laws and regulations. No part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Mirae Asset Daewoo.

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Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 6 May 14, 2020 YG Entertainment

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