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Budget 2021 Budget Review

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Budget 2021 Budget Review BUDGET 2021 BUDGET REVIEW Budget Review 2021 National Treasury Republic of South Africa 24 February 2021 ISBN: 978-0-621-49079-4 RP: 06/2021 The Budget Review is compiled using the latest available information from departmental and other sources. Some of this information is unaudited or subject to revision. To obtain additional copies of this document, please contact: Communications Directorate National Treasury Private Bag X115 Pretoria 0001 South Africa Tel: +27 12 315 5944 Fax: +27 12 407 9055 The document is also available on the internet at: www.treasury.gov.za. ii RSABUDGET2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • Government will support the economic recovery by extending short-term economic support and undertaking reforms to lower the cost of doing business and stabilise the public finances. • Real GDP is expected to grow at 3.3 per cent in 2021 and 2.2 per cent in 2022. • The global economic outlook is uncertain; however, additional policy stimulus packages and successful rollout of COVID-19 vaccines will boost global growth. • A successful rollout of COVID-19 vaccines will support the economic recovery and global trade. • Government will take steps to promote faster growth by stabilising electricity supply, supporting industries with high employment. potential and undertaking partnerships with the private sector. • Operation Vulindlela is supporting the implementation of key structural reforms, but faster progress is needed to generate an economic recovery. BUDGET FRAMEWORK • The budget deficit has been revised to 14 per cent of GDP in 2020/21 in response to the spending and economic pressures of the COVID-19 pandemic. • Gross debt has increased from 65.6 per cent to 80.3 per cent of GDP for the year 2020/21. • The 2021 Budget proposes measures to narrow the main budget primary deficit from 7.5 per cent of GDP in the current year to 0.8 per cent in 2023/24. • The proposed fiscal framework will stabilise debt at 88.9 per cent of GDP in 2025/26. • Government will roll out a free mass COVID-19 vaccination campaign for which R9 billion has been allocated in the medium term. • Over the medium term, debt-service costs are expected to average 20.9 per cent of gross tax revenue. SPENDING PROGRAMMES • Total consolidated spending amounts to R2 trillion each year over the medium term. • The bulk of the spending is allocated to learning and culture (R402.9 billion), social development (R335.2 billion) and health (R248.8 billion) in 2021/22. • The fastest-growing functions over the medium term are economic development, community development and general public services. • The majority of funding for new and urgent priorities is provided through reprioritisation and reallocation of existing baselines. TAX PROPOSALS • To support economic recovery, government will not raise any additional tax revenue in this budget. • The personal income tax brackets and rebates will increase above the inflation rate of 4 per cent. • Government will increase excise duties on alcohol and tobacco by 8 per cent for 2021/22. • Inflation-related increases of 15c/litre and 11c/litre will be implemented for the general fuel levy and the RAF levy, respectively, with effect from 7 April 2021. • The UIF contribution ceiling will be set at R17 711.58 per month from 1 March 2021. MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND PROJECTIONS RSABUDGET2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Percentage change Actual Estimate Forecast KEY Household consumption 2.1 1.8 1.0 -5.9 2.9 2.4 2.0 Gross fixed-capital formation 1.0 -1.4 -0.9 -18.4 -2.4 3.9 3.9 BUDGET Exports -0.7 2.6 -2.5 -10.9 5.7 3.0 2.8 Imports 1.0 3.3 -0.5 -16.5 6.3 4.6 2.5 STATISTICS Real GDP growth 1.4 0.8 0.2 -7.2 3.3 2.2 1.6 CPI inflation 5.3 4.6 4.1 3.3 3.9 4.2 4.4 Current account balance (% of GDP) -2.5 -3.5 -3.0 1.7 -0.1 -1.0 -1.4 full set of 2021 Budget data can be found in the statistical tables at the CONSOLIDATED FISCAL FRAMEWORK A back of the Budget Review. The data on this page may differ from the statistical R billion/percentage 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 annexure due to classification, definition of GDP Outcome Estimate Medium-term estimates and rounding. Revenue 1 350.3 1 447.8 1 530.5 1 362.7 1 520.4 1 635.4 1 717.2 28.7% 29.4% 29.7% 27.7% 28.4% 28.9% 28.6% BUDGET REVENUE, 2021/22 Expenditure 1 540.9 1 643.6 1 822.3 2 052.5 2 020.4 2 049.5 2 095.1 R billion 32.8% 33.4% 35.4% 41.7% 37.7% 36.2% 34.9% TAX REVENUE 1 365.1 Budget balance -190.6 -195.7 -291.8 -689.8 -500.0 -414.1 -377.9 of which: -4.1% -4.0% -5.7% -14.0% -9.3% -7.3% -6.3% Personal income tax 516.0 Gross domestic product 4 698.7 4 924.0 5 148.9 4 921.0 5 352.2 5 666.3 5 997.2 Corporate income tax 213.1 Value-added tax 370.2 DIVISION OF NATIONALLY RAISED REVENUE Taxes on international trade 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 54.0 R billion/percentage and transactions of GDP Outcome Estimate Medium-term estimates Non-tax revenue 32.5 DIVISION OF AVAILABLE FUNDS Less: SACU payments -46.0 National departments 592.6 634.3 749.7 804.5 763.3 736.3 739.0 Main budget revenue 1 351.7 Provinces 538.6 572.0 613.4 628.3 639.5 643.3 646.8 Provinces, social security funds 168.7 Local government 111.1 118.5 123.0 138.5 138.1 146.1 148.4 and public entities Non-interest allocation 1 242.3 1 324.8 1 486.2 1 571.3 1 552.5 1 557.8 1 567.5 Consolidated budget revenue 1 520.4 PERCENTAGE SHARES As percentage of GDP National departments 47.7% 47.9% 50.4% 51.2% 49.5% 48.3% 48.2% Tax revenue 25.5% Provinces 43.4% 43.2% 41.3% 40.0% 41.5% 42.2% 42.2% Main budget revenue 25.3% Local government 8.9% 8.9% 8.3% 8.8% 9.0% 9.6% 9.7% CONSOLIDATED SPENDING BY FUNCTIONAL AND ECONOMIC CLASSIFICATION, 2021/22 Compensation Goods and Capital spending Current transfers Interest R billion of employees services and transfers and subsidies payments Total Basic education 208.2 27.7 13.8 22.6 0.0 272.3 Post-school education and training 12.4 2.2 4.7 100.4 0.0 119.6 Arts, culture, sport and recreation 4.2 3.3 1.1 2.5 0.0 11.0 Health 150.7 80.1 12.2 5.8 0.0 248.8 Social protection 15.4 8.5 0.9 204.5 0.0 229.4 Social security funds 5.0 7.1 1.2 92.1 0.4 105.9 Community development 18.9 15.0 77.6 107.1 0.2 218.8 Industrialisation and exports 10.5 5.1 7.0 13.6 0.0 36.2 Agriculture and rural development 12.3 7.4 5.2 2.5 0.0 27.4 Job creation and labour affairs 4.6 19.6 0.8 8.4 0.0 33.4 Economic regulation and infrastructure 24.2 30.4 25.7 5.0 7.8 93.1 Innovation, science and technology 4.8 4.1 1.6 6.9 0.0 17.4 Defence and state security 27.1 12.2 1.3 6.1 0.0 46.7 Police services 80.6 18.3 3.8 1.9 0.0 104.6 Law courts and prisons 34.1 11.7 1.7 1.0 0.0 48.5 Home affairs 4.8 3.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 8.9 Executive and legislative organs 8.0 4.8 0.3 1.4 0.0 14.5 Public administration and fiscal affairs 21.7 16.4 2.0 5.9 0.0 46.1 External affairs 2.8 2.3 0.5 2.1 0.1 7.9 Payments for financial assets 48.2 Debt-service costs 269.7 269.7 Contingency reserve 12.0 Total 650.4 279.5 161.9 590.0 278.3 2 020.4 Note: Payments for financial assets are not shown in the table, but are included in the row totals. BUDGET2021/22 ISSUED BY BUDGET EXPENDITURE Tel: (012) 315 5757 www.treasury.gov.za RSA Budget #RSABudget2021 www.treasury.gov.za CONSOLIDATED GOVERNMENT SOCIAL EXPENDITURE R2.02 TRILLION R1.21 TRILLION SERVICES Economic regulation and infrastructure R93.1 bn Basic education R255.1 bn Industrialisation and exports R36.2 bn University transfers R45.6 bn R207.5 bn Job creation and labour affairs R33.4 bn National Student Financial Aid Scheme R37.3 bn R402.9bn ECONOMIC Agriculture and rural development R27.4 bn Skills development levy institutions R21.3 bn LEARNING DEVELOPMENT AND CULTURE Innovation, science and technology R17.4 bn Education administration R19.6 bn Technical & vocational education and training R13.0 bn Police services R104.6 bn District health services R105.5 bn Defence and state security R48.5 bn Other health services R51.4 bn R208.6 bn Law courts and prisons R46.7 bn Central hospital services R44.1 bn R248.8 bn PEACE AND Home affairs R8.9 bn Provincial hospital services R38.1 bn HEALTH SECURITY Facilities management and maintenance R9.7 bn Public administration and fiscal affairs R46.1 bn Municipal equitable share R78.0 bn Executive and legislative organs R14.5 bn Human settlements, water R52.9 bn and electrification programmes External affairs R7.9 bn R68.4 bn Public transport R45.0 bn R218.8 bn GENERAL PUBLIC COMMUNITY SERVICES Other human settlements R42.9 bn DEVELOPMENT and municipal infrastructure R269.7 bn Social security funds R105.9 bn DEBT-SERVICE COSTS Old-age grant R86.5 bn Child-support grant R73.3 bn R335.3 bn Other grants R35.7 bn SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT R12.0 bn Provincial social development R23.6 bn CONTINGENCY RESERVE Policy oversight and grant administration R10.2 bn vi Foreword All budgets are about balance – weighing the needs of the present and the future, assessing competing priorities for national development and, of course, managing revenue and expenditure.
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