The Blue Peace Index 2020
SPONSORED BY The Blue Peace Index 2020 1
Contents
Acknowledgements 2 Executive Summary 4 What is the Blue Peace Index? 4 Why a Blue Peace Index? 4 Blue Peace Index: Key findings 6 Promoting Blue Peace: Key recommendations 8 Benchmarking indices: strengths and limitations 10 1. Introduction: The need for Blue Peace 11 1.1 The global freshwater crisis 11 1.2 The need for transboundary action 14 1.3 What is Blue Peace? 15 1.4 The benefits of Blue Peace: New public goods 17 2. Blue Peace in selected basins 23 2.1 Amazon River Basin 25 2.2 Mekong River Basin 28 2.3 Senegal River Basin 32 2.4 Sava River Basin 35 2.5 Tigris–Euphrates River Basin 38 2.6 Syr Darya River Basin 42 2.7 Amu Darya River Basin 47 3. Key areas for promoting Blue Peace 52 3.1 Political will: Moving water to the top of the political agenda 52 3.2 Stronger institutions: Building foundations for cooperation 53 3.3 Developing trust: Building up the “momentum of history” 53 3.4 Inclusive decision-making: Finding the common ground 54 3.5 Evidence-based decision-making: Informing and 55 communicating 3.6 Finance: Investing in Blue Peace 55 4 Annex I—Country scorecards 58 Endnotes 123
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Acknowledgements
This report summarises the key findings of the • Dr Alan Nicol, Strategic Program Leader, Blue Peace Index research programme, developed Promoting Sustainable Growth, International by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) with Water Management Institute (IWMI) support from the Swiss Agency for Development • Ms. Belynda Petrie, CEO and co-founder, and Cooperation (SDC). The findings are based on OneWorld Sustainable Investments an extensive literature review, consultation with • Dr Benjamin Pohl, Senior Project Manager, an expert panel, and a comprehensive interview adelphi programme conducted by the EIU between January 2019 and October 2020. In total, more than • Professor Alistair Rieu-Clarke, Professor of 30 representatives from international institutions, Law, Northumbria School of Law NGOs, government entities, the private sector and • Dr Susanne Schmeier, Senior Lecturer in academia were interviewed. Water Law and Diplomacy, IHE Delft The EIU bears sole responsibility for the • Mr Alex Simalabwi, GWPSA Executive content of this report. The findings and Secretary & Head-Africa Coordination, GWP views expressed do not necessarily reflect Global Head–Climate Resilience the views of the partners and experts. • Professor Mark Zeitoun, Professor of Water Security and Policy, University of East Anglia The report was produced by a team of EIU researchers, writers, editors, and graphic The project team is also grateful for the support designers, including: of experts who have volunteered their time to Conor Griffin, Matus Samel, Dina Alborno, Beth inform the content of this report: Warne, Devika Saini, Adam Green, • Dr Iskandar Abdullaev, Deputy Director, Marcus Krakowizer, Audra Martin, Gareth Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Owen, Mike Kenny and Kerry Hughes. (CAREC) Johan Gély, Eileen Hofstetter and Stéphanie • Mr Kakhramon Djumaboev, Research Fellow, Piers de Raveschoot of the Swiss Agency International Water Management Institute for Development and Cooperation (SDC) (IWMI) provided expert guidance to the research and • Dr Cheikh Faye, Researcher, Geography development of the report. Department, Assane Seck University of The project has benefited from counsel Ziguinchor, Laboratory of Geomatics and provided at various stages by a panel of experts Environment consisting of prominent authorities on different • Dr Beatriz Garcia, School of Law, Western aspects of transboundary water cooperation. Sydney University. These include the following: • Dr Kim Geheb, Principal Scientist, Mekong • Dr Christian Bréthaut, Assistant Professor, Region Futures Institute University of Geneva, Geneva Water Hub • Dr Alejandro Iza, Head of Environmental Law • Dr James Dalton, Director, Global Water Programme, IUCN Programme, International Union for • Mr Diego Jara, Legal Officer, Environmental Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Law Programme, IUCN
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• Dr Jonathan Lautze, Research Group Leader, • Mr Greg Shapland, Associate Fellow, Middle Integrated Basin and Aquifer Management, East and North Africa Programme, Chatham International Water Management Institute House (IWMI) • Ms Bota Sharipova, Central Asia Youth for • Mr Bo Libert, Consultant, Stockholm Water Network International Water Institute (SIWI) • Mr Stephen Stec, J.D., M.Phil., Environmental • Mr Talaibek Makeev, Regional Technical Sciences and Policy Department, Central Advisor, United Nations Development European University Programme – Kazakhstan • Professor Aaron Wolf, Geographer in the • Dr Shelley McMillan, Senior Water Resources College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Management Specialist, The World Bank Sciences, Oregon State University Group. • Mr Bulat Yessekin, Kazakhstan Green • Dr Naho Mirumachi, Senior Lecturer, Economy National Council expert Department of Geography, King's College • Ms Dinara Ziganshina, Deputy Director, London Scientific Information Centre of Interstate • Mr Igor Petrakov, Legal expert on Commission for Water Coordination (SIC International Water Resources Management, ICWC) Kazakh University • Ms Jenniver Sehring, Senior Lecturer in Water Governance and Diplomacy, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education
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Executive Summary
What is the Blue Peace Index? experts at local, national and international levels. In developing the index, the EIU explored The Blue Peace Index examines the extent various elements that impact management to which countries and basins are managing of shared water resources and transboundary their shared water resources in a sustainable, cooperation and grouped them into five equitable and collaborative manner. The index domains. The index thus provides stakeholders is a tool for understanding challenges and with a common framework to understand the opportunities for improving transboundary complexity of this issue and to organise a co- water cooperation and management of shared ordinated response. water resources. The first edition of the index examines 30 Countries and basins need to know how and countries, across seven selected transboundary where to act river basins, on 74 qualitative and quantitative Policymakers, donors and practitioners indicators.* Some indicators are assessed at a working in transboundary water are typically national level and others are assessed at a basin constrained by limited resources. The level. All indicators are designed to capture index analyses countries’ management and some degree of “agency” that countries can cooperation over shared water across a broad exercise. Purely hydrological and geographical range of indicators. It thus allows stakeholders indicators are therefore excluded as countries to identify and understand their countries’ cannot influence them. The indicators are split relative strengths and weaknesses, enabling across five domains. them to address the most relevant challenges. The index’s distinction between domestic and Why a Blue Peace Index? basin-level indicators also enables stakeholders Reliance on stressed transboundary water to understand whether they should focus their resources is growing activities on domestic or regional-level policies and institutions. By 2050, more than 50% of the world’s population will live in water-scarce regions and, Investors and researchers can utilise with almost 60% of freshwater flows coming a holistic assessment of water policy from transboundary rivers, these resources will environments become increasingly crucial in ensuring people Moving away from a focus on short-term risk have an adequate water supply. This creates an factors, the index assesses the underlying urgent need to manage these shared resources policy, legal and institutional environment in a sustainable, equitable and collaborative for sustainable water management and manner. collaboration in the countries and basins, as Diverse stakeholders need a common well as the broader cooperation context in framework to boost cooperation the regions. In the long term, the index will therefore allow for a holistic exploration of the To improve management of shared water drivers and requisite conditions for sustainable resources and boost transboundary water collaboration over shared water resources. * For a detailed description of cooperation, policymakers and diplomats the indicators, sources and index methodology, see the Blue Peace must work closely with scientific and technical Index methodology note.
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The index’s overarching objectives are to: • Increase awareness of the concept of Blue • Incentivise stakeholders to improve their Peace in the broader water management and performance by tracking, and publishing, peace-building communities their progress in this space • Spur a public debate on the desirable goals • Highlight the optimal policy and and best practices for sustainable water management solutions available to respond management to transboundary water opportunities and • Provide a tool for a holistic assessment challenges of drivers and conditions for sustainable collaboration over shared water resources
Blue Peace Index Framework
I. Policy and legal II. Institutions and III. Water management IV. Infrastructure and V. Cooperation context frameworks participation instruments financing
1.1 National water policy 2.1 National water agency 3.1 Water availability 4.1 National public 5.1 Water stress National water legislation Existence and capacity of a management investment National water availability and policies and national water agency. National water monitoring National public funding and quality. application of integrated and water use efficiency for the development of water management programmes. water resources, including principles. infrastructure.
1.2 National 2.2 National stakeholder 3.2 Pollution control 4.2 Private sector 5.2 Socio-economic environmental policy engagement National water pollution investment exposure National policies for National programmes control strategies and Availability and Countries’ socio-economic limiting water pollution for engaging key water programmes. involvement of exposure to changes in and transboundary policy stakeholders, such private funding for the water availability. environmental impact. as government agencies, development of water user associations and the resources, including broader public. infrastructure.
1.3 International water 2.3 National data sharing 3.3 National disaster 4.3 Investment climate 5.3 Political stability conventions National platforms for management Overall national Government stability, Ratification of international sharing data between National plans for disaster investment climate, security situation and water conventions. government agencies and management and climate including ease of doing broader political and social. the broader public. change adaptation. business and regulatory and financial risks.
1.4 Basin water policy 2.4 Basin level body 3.4 Basin water 4.4 Basin organisation 5.4 Propensity for conflict framework Existence and capacity availability management operational financing Level of militarisation and Existence and of a joint basin-level Joint basin-level Funding for a joint basin- existence of water-related comprehensiveness operational institution. water-monitoring and level institution and joint conflicts. of international assessment programmes. investment programmes. transboundary water agreements.
2.5 Basin stakeholder 3.5 Basin pollution 4.5 Basin infrastructure 5.5 Economic relations engagement control financing with neighbouring states Basin-level programmes Joint basin-level water Private sector involvement Economic integration of for engaging key water pollution control strategies and alternative sources of countries in the basin. policy stakeholders, such and programmes. funding for joint basin-level as government agencies, investment. user associations and broader public.
2.6 Basin data sharing 3.6 Basin disaster Basin-level platforms for management sharing data between Joint basin-level government agencies and disaster monitoring and the broader public. response strategies and programmes.
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Basins and countries assessed Amazon Amu Darya Mekong Sava Senegal Syr Darya Tigris– (Latin (Central Asia) (Asia) (Europe) (Africa) (Central Asia) Euphrates America) (MENA) Bolivia Afghanistan Cambodia Bosnia and Guinea Kazakhstan Iran Herzegovina Brazil Tajikistan China Croatia Mali Kyrgyzstan Iraq Colombia Turkmenistan Laos Serbia Mauritania Tajikistan Syria Ecuador Uzbekistan Myanmar Slovenia Senegal Uzbekistan Turkey Peru Thailand Venezuela Vietnam
Syr Darya Sava Amu Darya Tigris- Euphrates Senegal Mekong
Amazon
Blue Peace Index: Key findings Amu Darya River Basin • Key strengths: All of the Amu Darya basin Amazon River Basin states have some form of water allocation • Key strengths: The Amazon Basin, and its monitoring system in place and the three riparian states, have relatively strong water states that are members of the Interstate management institutions, low water stress Commission of Water Coordination (ICWC) and actively engage stakeholders at the have access to some capacity development national and transboundary level. programmes. • Key challenges: Although the basin • Key challenges: Intra-regional integration countries are experienced at attracting is very limited and the regional water private sector investment at the national management is undermined by a lack level - for example, through water public– of cross border cooperation on disaster private partnerships (PPPs) - this has not management, pollution control and been translated into engaging private infrastructure investment. funding at the basin level. • Key opportunities: The limited existing • Key opportunities: Mechanisms for cooperation achieved through technical and transboundary cooperation on technical bilateral activities could be used as a building aspects of water management, especially block for further dialogue and cooperation data sharing, pollution control and disaster among the basin states. management, remain to be addressed.
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Mekong River Basin Sava River Basin • Key strengths: Helped by the Mekong • Key strengths: The Sava Basin represents River Commission’s (MRC) strong technical “best practice” in many areas of focus, the basin performs relatively well on transboundary water management. Its technical water management instruments, policy and legal frameworks have aligned such as water availability management, with the EU and international water law pollution control and disaster management. and all basin countries having ratified the • Key challenges: The absence of a UNECE Water Convention. The basin also transboundary water agreement covering has strong water management instruments, the whole basin and its tributaries (China including pollution control and data-sharing and Myanmar are only observer members of mechanisms. the MRC) inhibits deeper collaboration. • Key challenges: Comprehensive • Key opportunities: The basin is developing mechanisms for engaging stakeholder considerable water infrastructure, both at engagement are lacking and joint investment a national and cross-border level. However, programmes are limited. a lack of coordination over these projects • Key opportunities: The Sava River Basin creates significant tensions between states. Commission (SRBC) could become a catalyst for participatory engagement of local Senegal River Basin stakeholders, and a platform for learning • Key strengths: The Senegal River Basin between the riparian states. Organisation (OMVS) is underpinned by a comprehensive agreement and joint Syr Darya River Basin financing mechanisms, and the basin has • Key strengths: All of the Syr Darya strong mechanisms to engage national and Basin riparian states have some national transboundary stakeholders. institutional arrangements for water • Key challenges: The basin has a difficult management and have demonstrated natural environment, affecting food security some willingness to join multilateral water and access to drinking water. Strong agreements. mechanisms for water management and • Key challenges: Cooperation mostly pollution control are lacking. takes place on an ad hoc or bilateral • Key opportunities: The OMVS is among basis, exacerbating already significant the most comprehensive and active environmental, socio-economic and political transboundary institutions covered in this difficulties and heavy water stress faced by index, but the national institutions and the riparian states. programmes often lag behind. This creates • Key opportunities: The basin already an opportunity for learning between the possesses some of the necessary riparian states, and between national and infrastructure for regional water international institutions. management but it could be reformed, developed and funded in order to improve its currently weak performance.
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Tigris-Euphrates River Basin Promoting Blue Peace: Key • Key strengths: The Tigris-Euphrates Basin recommendations faces considerable challenges in all index areas and a particularly difficult political and environmental context. Nevertheless, 1. Political will: all countries in the region have maintained Move water to the top of the political at least basic institutional and legal agenda arrangements to manage their water resources, and Iraq and Syria have both • Water cooperation requires political signed the UN Watercourses Convention. leadership and engagement from government entities outside the water, • Key challenges: The absence of a regional environment and agriculture sectors that cooperation mechanism has reduced have traditionally prioritised it. collaboration among states to limited and ad hoc arrangements, which in turn has • Linking water to a wider range of policy made water allocation and pollution control goals, and integrating water diplomacy into particularly challenging. regional and bilateral political dialogues can help identify new ways forward when • Key opportunities: At an international level, shared benefits are not initially evident. the Tigris-Euphrates could learn from other Commitment to joint benefit-sharing can basins that have suffered riparian conflict yield various economic, environmental, and such as the Sava River Basin. A focus on the political benefits. technical aspects of water management, such as data sharing, might help actors move cooperation into a less diplomatically fraught domain. 2. Stronger institutions: Build the foundations for cooperation • National and transboundary water management institutions carry out complex work requiring significant technical, legal, and policy skills and capabilities. They also need advanced technologies, such as data sensors and meteorological stations that can be challenging to develop, especially in resource-constrained settings. • External financial and technical support can play a critical part in facilitating the creation and early-stage development of water cooperation institutions, particularly in politically and diplomatically sensitive contexts.
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3. Developing trust: 5. Evidence-based decision-making: The “momentum of history” Inform and communicate • The trade-off between harnessing the • Water is not a static resource. Climate developmental potential of transboundary change, evolving usage patterns, economic waters versus protecting ecological systems geography and flux in the stakeholder makes for fractious negotiations. Tensions community mean that collaboration is a between states over industry pollution continuous process, and not a one-time and disruption from dam development are agreement. common. • Data about the potential impact of water- • In these contexts, trust and good faith are related development, including dams and critical to negotiations. Joint identification industry, on hydro-dynamics and water and assessment of shared benefits can help quality is critical to ensuring that riparian facilitate cooperation even under challenging communities can respond effectively to circumstances. History shows that small- emerging challenges. Hard evidence and scale technical collaboration, however modelling can facilitate dialogue and fragile in the early stages, can steadily build a collaboration, for instance by highlighting deepening foundation that allows countries the economic and well-being costs of to work through difficulties. cooperation failures that lead to flooding or drought.
4. Inclusive decision-making: Find the common ground 6. Finance: • Water management and transboundary Invest in Blue Peace water cooperation can affect people’s • Finance is a critical enabler—or obstacle—to fundamental rights and livelihoods. If water Blue Peace, and will be necessary to fuel management practices do not adequately all of the five recommendations above, to balance the needs of different communities, varying degrees. However, project funding individual disputes can develop into long- for transboundary cooperation can be term conflicts—often fuelled by myths or difficult to access, especially if the projects narratives that deepen antipathy between are geared towards preservation as opposed communities. to economic returns. • Inclusive and participatory decision-making • Channelling more private and public finance is crucial for balancing interests, and securing into transboundary water management sustained support and collaboration from is one of the most pertinent challenges diverse communities. to improving Blue Peace. This will require improved coordination between international donors, more attractive and stable national investment landscapes, as well as a better environment for sustainable PPPs. A greater role for the impact investment community and new financial innovations such as “Blue Peace bonds” can also play a vital role.
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Benchmarking indices: strengths and limitations
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) is a leading expert Limitations of an index approach in designing composite indices that compare countries • The need for simplification—An index is inherently and cities on their performance in key policy areas. a snapshot in time across numerous countries and Our indices are based on a robust and transparent focuses on what is measurable and comparable across methodology and extensive research, and are used by different environments. This, by necessity, leaves some governments, institutions, and foundations around the important areas of nuance not fully reflected. For the world to understand policy landscapes and promote Blue Peace Index the role of more intangible factors in positive reforms in countries and areas where the greatest cooperation, such as power dynamics between states, impacts can be achieved. the role of culture, or virtual water flows, are particular areas that are not currently reflected in the scoring. Strengths of an index approach • Primacy of the state—The Blue Peace Index examines countries’ approaches to managing their • A holistic approach—A composite index is designed transboundary water. This makes the governments and to cover the key elements of a complex issue. In the their capabilities and activities the focus of the index. Blue Peace Index, this has allowed us to incorporate Although certain indicators capture the relationship considerations of the policy and institutional landscape between the state and other stakeholders, the role of of water management, its translation into activities on non-state actors in driving or compromising Blue Peace the ground, and the broader cooperation context, all is not fully accounted for in this format. within the same tool. • Focus on water management—A core assumption • Tracking trends over time—An index approach of the Blue Peace Index is the idea that sustainable, is designed to be replicable, applying a similar equitable and collaborative management of water methodology year on year to track progress over time. resources at the basin and domestic level is the best This is particularly important for the Blue Peace Index way to avoid conflict and build peace. This assumption as the pressure on transboundary water resources is favours a long-term view, impacting the usefulness of increasing. A longitudinal body of research is crucial to the tool as a short-term predictive instrument of where assess progress in this area. and when conflicts may emerge. • Clear calls to action—An index approach aims • Data availability—Given the need for consistency to provide decision-makers with a clear pathway and comparability, the index relies on publicly to action. The Blue Peace Index allows countries available information, including existing datasets and basins to identify their strengths and areas for and assessments. This, by necessity, excludes improvement and to share experiences and best some important measures of transboundary water practice with other countries and basins. management if comparable data is not available for a significant number of countries. Moreover, information and data about countries with significant capacity constraints, particularly those in volatile contexts such as Syria, can be more difficult to obtain and verify.
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1. Introduction: The need for Blue Peace
1.1 The global freshwater crisis meaning that less than 1% of the world’s water is both freshwater and accessible in liquid form. Approximately 70% of the earth’s surface is Of this tiny proportion, the vast majority is covered with water, but freshwater that can found in subterranean, groundwater reserves be consumed by humans represents only (aquifers1) and only a small fraction is easily 2.5% of all the water in the world. Much of this accessible surface water in lakes and rivers.2 freshwater is trapped in glaciers or ice caps,