Current and Projected National Security Threats to the United States
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S. HRG. 109–61 CURRENT AND PROJECTED NATIONAL SECURITY THREATS TO THE UNITED STATES HEARING BEFORE THE SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED NINTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION FEBRUARY 16, 2005 Printed for the use of the Select Committee on Intelligence ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.access.gpo.gov/congress/senate U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 22–379 PDF WASHINGTON : 2005 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2250 Mail: Stop SSOP, Washington, DC 20402–0001 VerDate 03-FEB-2003 13:33 Jul 27, 2005 Jkt 022379 PO 00000 Frm 00001 Fmt 5011 Sfmt 5011 D:\DOCS\22379.TXT SSC1 PsN: SSC1 SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE [Established by S. Res. 400, 94th Cong., 2d Sess.] PAT ROBERTS, Kansas, Chairman JOHN D. ROCKEFELLER IV, West Virginia, Vice Chairman ORRIN G. HATCH, Utah CARL LEVIN, Michigan MIKE DeWINE, Ohio DIANNE FEINSTEIN, California CHRISTOPHER S. BOND, Missouri RON WYDEN, Oregon TRENT LOTT, Mississippi EVAN BAYH, Indiana OLYMPIA J. SNOWE, Maine BARBARA A. MIKULSKI, Maryland CHUCK HAGEL, Nebraska JON S. CORZINE, New Jersey SAXBY CHAMBLISS, Georgia BILL FRIST, Tennessee, Ex Officio HARRY REID, Nevada, Ex Officio JOHN WARNER, Virginia, Ex Officio BILL DUHNKE, Staff Director and Chief Counsel ANDREW W. JOHNSON, Minority Staff Director KATHLEEN P. MCGHEE, Chief Clerk (II) VerDate 03-FEB-2003 13:33 Jul 27, 2005 Jkt 022379 PO 00000 Frm 00002 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 D:\DOCS\22379.TXT SSC1 PsN: SSC1 CONTENTS Page Hearing held in Washington, DC: February 16, 2005 ............................................................................................ 1 Witness Statements: Goss, Hon. Porter J., Director of Central Intelligence ................................... 7 Prepared statement ................................................................................... 14 Jacoby, Vice Admiral Lowell, USN, Director, Defense Intelligence Agency 45 Prepared statement ................................................................................... 46 Loy, Admiral James, Deputy Secretary, Department of Homeland Security .......................................................................................................... 36 Prepared statement ................................................................................... 39 Mueller, Hon. Robert S. III, Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation ...... 18 Prepared statement ................................................................................... 23 Rodley, Carol, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research ............................................................................ 59 Supplemental Materials: Prepared Statement for the Record from Hon. Thomas Fingar, Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research ....................................... 59 Prepared Statement for the Record from Senator Olympia J. Snowe ......... 69 (III) VerDate 03-FEB-2003 13:33 Jul 27, 2005 Jkt 022379 PO 00000 Frm 00003 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 D:\DOCS\22379.TXT SSC1 PsN: SSC1 VerDate 03-FEB-2003 13:33 Jul 27, 2005 Jkt 022379 PO 00000 Frm 00004 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 D:\DOCS\22379.TXT SSC1 PsN: SSC1 CURRENT AND PROJECTED NATIONAL SECURITY THREATS TO THE UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 16, 2005 UNITED STATES SENATE, SENATE SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE, Washington, DC. The Committee met, pursuant to notice, at 10:03 a.m., in room SH–216, Hart Senate Office Building, the Honorable Pat Roberts, Chairman of the Committee, presiding. Committee Members Present: Senators Roberts, Hatch, Bond, Lot, Snowe, Chambliss, Warner, Rockefeller, Levin, Feinstein, Wyden, Bayh, and Mikulski. OPENING STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE PAT ROBERTS, CHAIRMAN Chairman ROBERTS. The hearing will come to order. Today, the Senate Committee on Intelligence meets in open ses- sion to conduct its annual worldwide threat hearing. I would like to inform Members that traditionally we have a closed hearing in the afternoon, but Secretary of State Rice is coming to the Senate to brief all Members this afternoon. We will follow up with individuals at our weekly intelligence hearings, and then, obviously, a hearing or briefing at any Mem- ber’s request. So we will see all of these people back again in a classified session at another time. The Committee traditionally begins its annual oversight of the U.S. intelligence community with an open hearing, so that the pub- lic will have the benefit of the intelligence community’s best assess- ment of the current and projected national security threats to the United States. Our witnesses today are Mr. Porter Goss, the Director of Central Intelligence. Welcome back, Mr. Director. Director GOSS. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chairman ROBERTS. Mr. Robert Mueller, the Director of the Fed- eral Bureau of Investigation; Admiral James Loy, the Deputy Sec- retary of the Department of Homeland Security; Vice Admiral Low- ell Jacoby, the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency; and Ms. Carol Rodley, the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research. The acronym for that, by the way, is INR. The Committee thanks all of our distinguished witnesses for being here today. We thank you for your commitment, for your per- severance on your job, and for helping to keep America safe. (1) VerDate 03-FEB-2003 13:33 Jul 27, 2005 Jkt 022379 PO 00000 Frm 00005 Fmt 6601 Sfmt 6601 D:\DOCS\22379.TXT SSC1 PsN: SSC1 2 Before we begin the testimony, I would like to take this oppor- tunity to discuss an issue that has concerned and frustrated me since I joined this Committee over 8 year ago, and all Members of this Committee from time to time. While we meet today in open session, the Members of this Com- mittee and our witnesses will be limited in what they can say be- cause the vast majority of the information with which this Com- mittee and our witnesses deal is classified. The issues which we cover are not necessarily secret, but the details that surround them generally are. Our goal today is to have as open a discussion as possible, recog- nizing that there are simply some things that we cannot and must not discuss publicly. The dynamics surrounding what we can and cannot say represents one of the most frustrating aspects of mem- bership on this Committee, especially when secret intelligence ac- tivities find their way into public discourse. How do we as a Committee assure the American people that we are even aware of something when we cannot discuss it publicly? How, without confirming or denying a particular story, do we ex- plain that concerns are misplaced, on point or off point? Where do we draw the line between the public’s right to know and our Na- tion’s security interests in keeping something secret? These remain very difficult questions. In 1976, the U.S. Senate established this Committee to conduct vigorous oversight of the intelligence activities of the United States government. And that is exactly what we do, day in and day out— with, I might add—what the Vice Chairman and I consider to be an outstanding and most capable staff. Unfortunately, but necessarily, the Members of this Committee are rarely at liberty to respond to public stories or to inquiries. This does not mean, however, that we are not aware of or deeply involved in the issue that is being discussed. Much of this Committee’s work gets done behind closed doors with little fanfare. And open public discussion about all of the issues on which our Committee works is just not possible. If we were to discuss some of the ingenious ways this Nation does collect intelligence and protects our citizens, our adversaries would and could develop simple countermeasures that would eliminate these advantages, which were developed at great cost or high risk. This secrecy does protect lives and helps us to keep safe. The Vice Chairman and I will, however, continue to work to- gether to keep the American people as informed as possible. And when we can, we will do our best to clarify any misconceptions that may exist. With that in mind, I will now briefly discuss some of our plans for this Committee’s oversight in the coming months. First, we look forward to the naming of a Director of National Intelligence. As soon as the President nominates this individual, we will schedule a confirmation hearing as soon as practicable. Second, we will monitor closely the implementation of the Intel- ligence reform bill. We will focus a great deal of attention on how this Committee can support the new DNI in the exercise of his or her authorities. And, because no legislation is perfect, we will also look at whether any legislative fixes are necessary. VerDate 03-FEB-2003 13:33 Jul 27, 2005 Jkt 022379 PO 00000 Frm 00006 Fmt 6601 Sfmt 6601 D:\DOCS\22379.TXT SSC1 PsN: SSC1 3 Third, in the area of oversight, we will focus on the intelligence community’s collection and analytical capabilities, especially in re- gard to our capabilities. Do we have the adequate collection? Do we have the adequate analysis? Do we have the information access to make a consensus threat analysis that is both credible and helpful to the policymakers and the Congress? This Committee learned from our Iraq WMD inquiry that we cannot and should not always take the intelligence community’s as- sessments at face value. The Vice Chairman and I have therefore decided to change the way the Senate Intelligence Committee does our work. We haven’t launched anything. We haven’t