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Home , Bill Lazor, Dirk Koetter, Doug Marrone, Ed Donatell, Gus Bradley, Kellen Moore

2020 NFL STATISTICAL SECTION Introduction

Anyone can call themselves a football handicapper. There are no official tests that CONTENTS people are required to pass, no certificates awarded upon completion of required, ac- 1 Introduction credited courses. It’s an unregulated profession. You have to wake up in the morning assuming that you are not very smart about it, and go to bed knowing that you worked 2 NFL Three-Season ATS Overviews to make yourself smarter that day. That’s the only way we can learn how to get better at football handicapping and wagering. 3 NFL /Coordinators ATS

Nobody gets better at football wagering by watching the talking heads on ESPN argue 4 NFL Yards per Point, ATS Margin about subject like “Who has the better wide receivers?”. Or, “What AFC South team Change should you more concerned about, the Colts or the Jaguars?” That kind of information is for kids, and adults who still sleep under a comforter with their favorite team’s logo on it. 5 NFL Turnover Margin Change Anyone serious about betting to win needs to expose themselves to more sophisticated information that isn’t so readily available. What everybody sees and hears often isn’t 6 NFL Plays per Lost and worth knowing. Alternatively styled analyses – the kind that appears in my book, How to Beat the Pro Football Pointspread, and has also appeared in the Sports Reporter Zone Blitz, gives us all a chance to make better decisions than bettors who either do no homework at all, or who use inappropriate tools to prepare themselves for the season 7 The NFL Curse ahead. 8 NFL Team Straight-Up Wins by Too many football bettors are careless. They don’t realize that and NFL Season coaches have fought to take away reliable handicapping spots by fighting for more fair- ness in scheduling. That was bad for bettors who’d found bankable trends in the unfair schedules. It means that we have to go out and find new good and bad spots. Bettors tend to be like recreational golfers -- remembering good shots, conveniently forgetting 2017-19 NFL about bad ones, and forging ahead with a different strategy every week. This involves Offensive Medianss too much “pulling out the wrong club” -- overreacting to overly hyped nonsense that is broadcast and published in order to fill a news cycle -- instead of anticipating based on the most important facts and statistics that go unnoticed by the majority. Rushing Attempts 25.6

We don’t care about who’ll finish first, second, or last, or who might win individual Rushing Yards 109.8 awards. We are concerned only about our own rewards. We try to uncover statisti- cal thresholds reached by teams which tend to point to the likelihood of bad or good Rushing Yards/carry 4.3 follow-up seasons. Since NFL teams play only 16 regular-season games a year (going up to 17 soon!), black-and-white point-spread records (the infamous, ever-present but Pass completions 22.1 overrated “ATS Records”) are too small a sample to be reliable projection factors for an upcoming season. Different situational dynamics can lead to drastically different results Pass Attempts 34.8 the next time around in a match-up between two specific teams, let alone the next time any given team has made its way through an entire “next season.” Pass Yds/Att (YPA) 7.2 Understanding the environment in which certain statistics were produced, and why that environment might change and lead to drastically different stats and results in the up- Passing Yards 233 coming season, can help create a fast start for the point-spread player. Ideally, you want to anticipate a 4-0 or 0-4 start for that team, bet on it that way, and be ahead of the Completion % (season) 62.8% game in Week 5. Because after a month of NFL weekends has passed, it’s worthless to know that a team is 4-0 or 0-4 ATS heading into Week 5 if you weren’t able to already Total Yards 343 capitalize on that fact. First Downs 19.9 Speaking of statistics, I’d like to help football bettors place them into better context. Here (in the table at right) are last season’s NFL medians in “per game” offensive cat- Offensive plays 63.2 egories. This simple table can help cut through a lot of the meaningless clutter that the football media creates. For instance, when a story says, “ was 22-for-35, Passes (sea- 25.0 for 233 yards, blah-blah-blah...” you can immediately understand that Baker Mayfield’s son) numbers were middle of the road for the position and 21 other guys contributed to his (season) 12.0 team’s result. -- Bobby Smith 2020 NFL STATS -- BOBBYSMITH.COM 1 2020 NFL STATS NFL Three-Year ATS Overviews We’ve been through many drills like this. Three-year ATS records could turn the other way in the fourth season. So, BEST THREE-YEAR too, could five-year ATS records. Or four-year ATS records. Or one-year ATS records. It happens all the time, every HOME Avg HOME Avg year. And guess what? Sometimes, the next-season ATS DOG, 3Y W L T Line FAV, 3YR W L T Line record continues to trend the way it trended in the past! Pittsburgh 3 0 2 2.90 Minnesota 14 6 1 -7.33 So, good luck attempting to project which way these three- Chicago 6 1 1 4.38 Miami 2 1 2 -3.30 year NFL team ATS records will trend in 2020. Some of the Carolina 4 1 2 5.21 5 3 1 -4.72 other statistical data tracked on these pages often sheds Denver 7 2 1 4.20 LA Rams 14 9 1 -6.31 some light on which way teams will go. It’s funny that the Green Bay 12 8 0 -6.28 worst overall ATS team in the NFL from 2017-19, the Raid- ROAD Avg ers, are moving to Las Vegas, where a new group of bet- DOG, 3Y W L T Line City 16 11 0 -7.39 ting fans have an opportunity to devalue them more than New England 17 12 0 -9.31 New England 2 0 0 3.00 they’ve already been. We’ll see how it goes. -- Bobby Smith Baltimore 10 1 0 3.86 ROAD Avg Kansas City 7 2 1 3.95 FAV, 3Y W L T Line THREE-YEAR, OVERALL LA Rams 6 2 0 3.19 New Orleans 11 2 0 -5.35 Pittsburgh 6 2 0 4.56 Buffalo 4 1 0 -4.30 Team W L T ATS % $100 Net NY Giants 13 7 0 6.80 Baltimore 8 4 1 -4.50 Kansas City 31 20 2 60.8% +$900 LA Chargers 9 5 1 4.03 6 3 2 -4.36 New England 32 22 1 59.3% +$780 Philadelphia 8 5 0 4.65 Dallas 8 5 1 -4.07 Baltimore 28 19 3 59.6% +$710 Seattle 9 6 1 3.47 Minnesota 8 5 0 -4.08 Minnesota 30 21 1 58.8% +$690 Cincinnati 13 9 0 7.50 (Minimum five instances in the role from LA Rams 29 21 2 58.0% +$590 Buffalo 11 8 2 6.93 2017 through 2019.) New Orleans 29 23 1 55.8% +$370 Houston 11 8 1 5.85 Buffalo 26 21 3 55.3% +$290 San Frncisco 11 8 0 6.32 Dallas 26 22 2 54.2% +$180 Philadelphia 29 25 0 53.7% +$150 San Francisco 26 23 1 53.1% +$70 WORST THREE-YEAR Indianapolis 25 23 2 52.1% -$30 HOME Avg HOME W L T Avg Seattle 24 23 4 51.1% -$130 DOG, 3Y W L T Line FAV, 3Y Line Tennessee 27 26 0 50.9% -$160 Green Bay 1 4 0 3.90 Arizona 1 4 0 -3.80 Detroit 23 23 2 50.0% -$230 NY Giants 4 13 0 4.32 NY Jets 1 4 0 -3.90 Chicago 24 24 1 50.0% -$240 Washington 6 10 0 4.56 Denver 3 9 2 -4.00 Cincinnati 24 24 0 50.0% -$240 Cleveland 6 9 0 5.27 LA Chargers 6 14 0 -6.70 Carolina 23 24 2 48.9% -$340 Buffalo 4 6 0 6.60 Tampa Bay 3 7 2 -3.46 Green Bay 24 25 1 49.0% -$350 Cincinnati 4 8 0 -4.54 ROAD Avg Arizona 22 24 2 47.8% -$440 DOG, 3Y W L T Line NY Giants 2 4 1 -3.57 Jacksonville 24 26 1 48.0% -$460 Seattle 7 13 1 -5.90 Oakland 7 14 0 5.86 Miami 21 24 3 46.7% -$540 Houston 8 13 0 -5.45 Minnesota 5 9 0 4.36 Pittsburgh 22 25 2 46.8% -$550 Baltimore 8 12 2 -7.20 Denver 6 10 0 6.16 Houston 23 26 2 46.9% -$560 New Orleans 10 15 0 -7.88 Chicago 5 8 0 7.46 LA Chargers 22 26 2 45.8% -$660 Pittsburgh 8 12 0 -6.15 NY Jets 7 11 1 8.97 Washington 22 26 0 45.8% -$660 Carolina 7 10 0 -5.32 Miami 9 14 0 8.91 NY Giants 21 26 1 44.7% -$760 Tampa Bay 6 9 4 5.63 ROAD Avg Atlanta 22 28 0 44.0% -$880 FAV, 3Y W L T Line (Minimum five instances in the role from Tampa Bay 17 24 7 41.5% -$940 Atlanta 1 7 0 -3.81 2017 through 2019.) Denver 19 26 3 42.2% -$960 Cleveland 1 5 0 -3.25 Cleveland 20 27 1 42.6% -$970 NY Jets 1 4 0 -1.90 NY Jets 19 27 2 41.3% -$1,070 Pittsburgh 5 11 0 -5.34 Oakland 18 28 2 39.1% -$1,280 Chicago 4 7 0 -4.95

2020 NFL STATS -- BOBBYSMITH.COM 2 NFL Head Coaches and Coordinators ATS Earth to head coach Dan Quinn: ‘The Falcons were 55.1% ATS under !’ Here we go, something new! It’s just a little “additional info” guys with plenty of seasons under their belts but with ATS win thing that might be interesting for a while. Hey, if broadcasters percentages in the poor 42.6% to 46.9% range. Brinigng up the and sportswriters can compile won-loss records for quarter- rear is the ’ new OC, , who brings a list backs – who aren’t starting pitchers! -- then I can compile of non-accomplishments with him from prior stints at Miami and ATS records for coaches, right? Head coaches and coordi- Cincinnati. Lazor is teamed with Chuck Pagano, whose teams are nators are the guys setting the styles and telling the players 39.4% ATS when he coordinates their defense. Good luck, Bears! what to do! They decide the systems to be played, the forma- Among current defensive coordinators, has been tions, the play calls on offense and defense... just about ev- associated with the highest percentage of wins vs. the spread. He erything! The players are like robots, programmed to perform is the new DC of the Redskins, hired by a new Washington head based on input that coaches and coordinators have drilled coach, , who is in the profitable range in that role. A into them. However, other than for pre-season games, I’ve very thing to do was to hire Joe Woods as never seen anyone else break profit-and-loss records the new DC. In two seasons as an NFL DC, Woods’ teams have vs. the spread by the career of individual coach or coordina- barely covered one of every three games. tor. So, here it is! (All records are for the 11-year period from 2009-2019.) Surprisingly, sixteen of the current NFL head coaches have win- ning records vs. the spread in that role (since 2009). At the top Jay Gruden, fired as Redskins’ head coach, is the new offen- of the list is . (If you included Zimmer’s incredibly sive coordinator for Jacksonville. The cov- strong ATS record in Vikings’ exhibition games, the percentage ered 59.6% of their games when Gruden was ’ there. Interesting. (Balti- would be higher than it already is!) ’s 59.1% win rate more) and Brian Schottenheimer (Seattle) have solid profitable in that span is phenomenal in itself. Three of the next four head ATS records in more seasons as an OC than Gruden, who coaches behind Belichick have had only one season on the job. spent only three Meanwhile, after 95 games of betting on Dan Quinn, Atlanta Fal- 2020 W L T ATS% cons backers are winning only 47.1%. That’s the worst rate among Head Coach Team in the role with head coaches who’ve been on the job that long, slightly worse Mike Zimmer MIN 63 38 1 62.4% Cincinnati. Near the bottom of the than what Bill O’Brien (Houston) and (Buffalo, Matt LaFleur GB 11 7 0 61.1% OC list are seven Jacksonville) have accomplished. – Bobby Smith Bill Belichick NE 114 79 7 59.1% 2020 Defensive 2020 Offensive W L T ATS% W L T ATS% Sean McVay LAR 29 21 2 58.0% Coordinator Team Coordinator Team MIA 9 7 0 56.3% Eric Bienemy KC 22 13 2 62.9% Jack Del Rio WAS 31 23 0 57.4% ARI 9 7 1 56.3% Jay Gruden JAX 28 19 4 59.6% Dennis Allen NO 48 37 2 56.5% DEN 9 7 0 56.3% DAL 9 7 0 56.3% Patrick Graham NYG 9 7 0 56.3% Mike McCarthy DAL 96 76 4 55.8% Greg Roman BAL 65 51 5 56.0% KC 46 38 0 54.8% SEA 93 75 9 55.4% Arthur Smith TEN 11 9 0 55.0% TB 43 36 4 54.4% NO 102 85 2 54.5% Brian Schottenheimer SEA 73 61 3 54.5% PHI 46 40 0 53.5% Sean McDermott BUF 26 22 3 54.2% Darrell Bevel DET 90 76 8 54.2% IND 17 15 2 53.1% IND 17 15 2 53.1% DEN 59 52 4 53.2% ARI 17 15 2 53.1% Ron Rivera WAS 77 68 7 53.1% Nick Sirianni IND 17 15 2 53.1% Mike Nolan DAL 43 38 1 53.1% PHI 37 33 0 52.9% GB 44 40 1 52.4% HOU 61 56 2 52.1% TEN 19 17 0 52.8% SF 91 85 7 51.7% SF 26 24 1 52.0% KC 96 87 5 52.5% Matt LaFleur GB 17 16 0 51.5% Paul Guenther LV 49 47 2 51.0% TB 49 45 5 52.1% NYJ 26 25 1 51.0% Keith Butler PIT 42 41 4 50.6% Kyle Shanahan SF 26 24 1 52.0% MIA 22 23 3 48.9% BUF 57 56 4 50.4% PIT 91 91 6 50.0% Randy Fichtner PIT 15 17 1 46.9% GB 60 59 1 50.4% Bill O'Brien HOU 49 51 3 49.0% BUF 44 51 4 46.3% BAL 24 24 2 50.0% Doug Marrone JAX 40 42 1 48.8% Dirk Koetter ATL 59 69 2 46.1% Ken Norton, Jr. SEA 39 39 6 50.0% CHI 16 17 0 48.5% NYG 22 27 1 44.9% NYJ 80 82 4 49.4% Matt Patricia DET 15 16 1 48.4% Dowell Loggains NYJ 34 42 4 44.7% JAX 31 34 2 47.7% Dan Quinn ATL 40 45 0 47.1% Greg Olson LV 56 70 2 44.4% LAC 27 37 2 42.2% LAC 22 26 2 45.8% TB 6 8 2 42.9% Chuck Pagano CHI 13 20 1 39.4% Adam Gase NYJ 27 34 4 44.3% Bill Lazor CHI 20 27 1 42.6% Joe Woods CLE 10 19 3 34.5% LV 14 18 0 43.8% CIN 6 9 1 40.0% (All ATS records are from 2009-2019 only, and may comprise tenures with more than CIN 6 9 1 40.0% Kevin O'Connell LAR 6 10 0 37.5% one team.) 2020 NFL STATS -- BOBBYSMITH.COM 3 2020 NFL STATS NFL YARDS PER POINT & ATS MARGINS Over- O D 2018- NFL TEAM 2019 2018 2019 22018 all NFL Team YPP YPP 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 '19 O YPP O YPP D YPP D YPP YPP YPPs Ch Ch ATS Margins ch Ch Arizona 15.1 17.2 2.1 14.6 13.5 1.1 3.2 Arizona 1.5 6.6 0.3 -2.4 -5.3 0.4 +5.6 Atlanta 15.9 15.0 -0.9 14.3 14.5 -0.2 -1.1 Atlanta -0.7 -2.5 6.5 -0.6 -1.3 1.3 2.6 Baltimore 13.0 15.3 2.3 16.5 15.9 0.6 2.9 Baltimore 3.4 -2.9 0.7 3.2 3.6 10.6 +6.9 Buffalo 17.1 17.8 0.7 18.3 12.6 5.7 +6.4 Buffalo 5.2 1.2 0.8 -1.5 -1.1 2.6 3.7 Carolina 16.1 15.9 -0.2 12.7 14.8 -2.1 -2.3 Carolina -0.3 7.8 -3.5 0.7 -0.7 -6.9 -6.2 Chicago 17.0 13.4 -3.6 17.4 17.0 0.4 -3.2 Chicago -5.7 -0.2 -3.9 1.4 5.6 -2.2 -7.8 Cincinnati 18.5 13.5 -5.0 15.0 14.5 0.5 -4.5 Cincinnati -0.4 5.2 -0.4 -2.6 -2.3 -2.8 -0.5 Cleveland 16.3 16.4 0.1 14.7 16.0 -1.3 -1.2 Cleveland -0.3 -4.9 -4.6 -4.7 1.0 -4.2 -5.2 Dallas 15.9 16.1 0.2 16.3 16.0 0.3 0.5 Dallas 5.5 -3.9 4.3 -0.8 1.6 1.7 0.1 Denver 16.9 17.0 0.1 17.1 16.7 0.4 0.5 Denver 1.1 1.6 1.0 -5.7 -0.2 0.8 1.0 Detroit 16.3 16.2 -0.1 15.1 14.9 0.2 0.1 Detroit 0.4 -1.0 -0.1 1.3 -0.1 -1.3 -1.3 Green Bay 14.7 15.7 1.0 17.1 14.2 2.9 3.9 Green Bay 3.8 -2.0 -0.4 -2.0 -3.6 0.3 3.9 Houston 15.3 15.0 -0.3 15.5 17.5 -2.0 -2.3 Houston 3.2 2.4 -1.6 -2.7 2.5 -1.0 -3.5 Indianapolis 14.5 14.7 0.2 14.9 16.2 -1.3 -1.1 Indianapolis 1.5 -5.6 2.0 -3.3 4.4 -1.0 -5.4 Jacksonville 18.2 19.7 1.5 15.1 15.8 -0.7 0.8 Jacksonville -3.6 -1.3 -1.8 6.9 -4.5 -3.6 0.9 Kansas City 12.9 12.0 -0.9 17.4 15.5 1.9 1.0 Kansas City 4.6 3.8 2.4 1.7 4.3 4.5 0.2 LA Chargers 17.4 13.7 -3.7 14.5 15.7 -1.2 -4.9 LA Chargers -0.6 -3.0 -0.5 3.7 1.7 -2.2 -3.9 LA Rams 15.2 13.4 -1.8 14.9 15.3 -0.4 -2.2 LA Rams 0.6 -1.8 -6.3 7.4 0.9 -1.1 -2.0 Miami 16.2 14.5 -1.7 12.9 14.5 -1.6 -3.3 Miami 0.8 -4.1 0.5 -2.4 -4.1 -1.7 2.4 Minnesota 13.9 15.4 1.5 17.4 14.5 2.9 +4.4 Minnesota 2.5 3.7 0.1 4.8 -0.7 2.7 3.4 New England 13.8 14.7 0.9 19.1 17.1 2.0 2.9 New England 5.4 2.9 5.3 1.2 0.1 2.3 2.3 New Orleans 13.2 12.4 -0.8 15.5 15.8 -0.3 -1.1 New Orleans -6.0 -3.6 1.2 5.3 4.1 2.9 -1.2 NY Giants 15.9 15.4 -0.5 13.4 14.4 -1.0 -1.5 NY Giants 0.4 0.3 1.0 -4.4 -0.1 -3.6 -3.4 NY Jets 15.8 14.4 -1.4 14.4 13.8 0.6 -0.8 NY Jets -3.4 2.7 -4.8 -0.1 -1.7 0.1 1.8 Oakland 18.6 18.5 -0.1 13.5 13.1 0.4 0.3 Oakland -4.1 0.4 1.1 -4.5 -5.2 -4.2 1.0 Philadelphia 15.4 16.1 0.7 15.3 17.3 -2.0 -1.3 Philadelphia 2.1 -3.9 3.1 6.3 -0.9 -0.9 -0.1 Pittsburgh 15.3 15.1 -0.2 16.1 14.5 1.6 1.4 Pittsburgh 2.5 4.7 0.4 0.3 1.0 -1.2 -2.3 San Francisco 12.6 16.9 4.3 14.6 12.7 1.9 +6.2 San Francisco -5.0 -3.2 -4.6 1.5 -2.0 7.1 +9.0 Seattle 15.2 13.2 -2.0 15.5 16.3 -0.8 -2.8 Seattle 2.7 3.4 -1.4 -1.0 4.1 -2.2 -6.3 Tampa Bay 13.9 16.8 2.9 12.3 13.2 -0.9 2.0 Tampa Bay -3.8 -2.2 2.3 -1.5 -0.6 2.4 3.0 Tennessee 14.1 16.1 2.0 17.9 17.6 0.3 2.3 Tennessee -7.8 -3.9 0.4 -3.5 1.4 4.3 2.9 Washington 16.5 17.1 0.6 14.2 15.7 -1.5 -0.9 Washington -5.6 3.2 0.2 -2.0 -1.9 -3.3 -1.4

Yards Per Point ATS Margins The Cleveland Browns posted an overall YPP Change of +7.9 Indianapolis, Cleveland, Denver, Houston and Seattle had from 2017 to 2018. It was the largest such gain made by an NFL exceeded a +5.0 ATS Margin change from 2017 to 2018. Only team, with 2018 being the rookie season of QB Baker Mayfield. Cleveland had an abominable ATS season in 2019, but Houston In Mayfield’s second season, the Browns proceeded to tie for the lost money, too. The Colts’ power rating was lowered when fewest games covered vs. the spread (4-12 ATS). The Chicago retired, which injected them with value from the Bears were also in last year’s highlighted group of greatest get-go. Denver and Seattle were profitable, so it wasn’t much of overall YPP Change from year-prior. They were the team tied a year for the ol’ ATS Margin jump as a predictor for regression. with Cleveland at 4-12 ATS! Ha! After a 12-4 SU 2018 campaign For this season, ATS Margin radar of regression shows only in which they hosted a playoff game, the Bears did not make the three teams: San Francisco, Baltimore and Arizona. Slim playoffs and managed just an 8-8 SU record in 2019. That’s why pickins, indeed. The 49ers and Ravens were the only two teams we do stuff like this! To anticipate the worst before it happens! that exceeded a +5.2 ATS Margin in 2019, which is typically another threshold from which a regression normally follows. San Francisco and Buffalo are the two largest YPP gainers Of the 13 back-to-back seasons highlighted in gray in the NFL heading into 2020. In a theme that will repeat itself in this year’s Team ATS Margins table on the right above, you’ll note that 12 pre-season statistical analyses, the 49ers and Bills are teams of them feature a significantly lower ATS Margin in the second with run-first offenses that have a lot to prove in the areaof of the back-to-back seasons that followed a first season of downfield passing. Those run-heavy offenses are paired with +5.2 or greater. The 49ers and Ravens face similar challenges defenses that have been stout enough to have helped bring this season: trying to maintain dominance despite being run- about “success” in 2019. But as a formula for sustained success heavy, after opposing defensive coordinators have dissected in the NFL, the jury is out. It’s hard to play consistently great their offensive systems and are better prepared to make the defense for multiple seasons in the NFL, and high-level turnover – Jimmy Garoppolo and Lamar Jackson – beat acquisition that helps the defense along can be fleeting. them with their arms. -- Bobby Smith

2020 NFL STATS -- BOBBYSMITH.COM 4 NFL Turnover Margin Change Analysis Yet another example of turnovers playing a role in determining profitability from one season to the next. Twelve times in the last 14 seasons – with last year being a prime example of the overall ’11-12 ch Team 2013 W-L-T trend -- the NFL’s top five Turnover Margin changers from year-prior have combined to +31 Washington 5-11-0 lose money vs. the spread. The awful 2019 performances against the spread by Cleve- +19 Chicago 5-11-0 +18 Tampa Bay 6-10-0 land and Chicago more than offset the maddening profitability of bad teams Miami and +12 Arizona 10-4-2 Denver, to the point where the prior season’s top five combined to be a mere 43.2% +11 Denver 12-7-0 ATS. Remember, the team with the worst 2018 Turnover Margin (San Francisco, -25) ALL: 47.5% ATS,38-42-2 was leading the next by 10 points in the fourth quarter. That, folks, is just the latest in a long line of examples of how powerful an extreme Turnover Margin change ’10-11 ch Team 2012 W-L-T can be. +29 San Francisco 9-7-0 +20 Jacksonville 7-9-0 Entering 2020, there exists nobody in that range from a year ago, as the Giants and +18 Buffalo 7-9-0 Chargers share “worst” 2019 TO Margins of -17. Although Pittsburgh and San Francisco +17 Seattle 11-5-0 are clearly the top two TO Margin changers and therefore candidates to fail miserably +14 Green Bay 9-7-0 like Cleveland and Chicago did a year ago, their 2019 TO Margins of +4 and +8 weren’t ALL: 53.7% ATS,43-37-0 off-the-charts great. The Patriots are the 2018 2019 Net TO team that needs to be on guard, off a +21 Team ’09-10 ch Team 2011 W-L-T TO Mar TO Mar Ch +22 Detroit 7-7-2 TO Margin season and now playing without San Francisco -25 +4 +29 +22 New England 9-8-0 , one of the best-ever quarter- Pittsburgh -11 +8 +19 +20 Pittsburgh 7-8-1 backs at ball security. – Bobby Smith +18 St. Louis 3-12-1 Baltimore -3 +10 +13 +14 Tampa Bay 4-12-0 PRIOR TOP 5 NFL TURNOVER MARGIN Green Bay 0 +12 +12 ALL: 38.9% ATS,30-47-4 CHANGES IN FOLLOW-UP SEASONS Arizona -12 -1 +11 Jacksonville -12 -1 +11 ’08-09 ch Team 2010 W-L-T ’17-18 ch Team 2019 W-L-T Minnesota 0 +11 +11 +26 San Francsco 7-9-0 +35 Cleveland 5-10-1 +24 Denver 5-11-0 New England +10 +21 +11 +25 Houston 8-10-0 +17 Green Bay 9-7-0 +24 Denver 9-7-0 Buffalo -5 +4 +9 +15 New Orleans 6-9-1 +19 Miami 9-7-0 New Orleans +8 +15 +7 +13 Dallas 7-9-0 +12 Chicago 4-12-0 Tennessee -1 +6 +7 ALL: 43.0% ATS,34-45-1 ALL: 43.2% ATS, 35-46-1 NY Jets -10 -4 +6 ’07-08 ch Team 2009 W-L-T Oakland -7 -2 +5 ’16-17 ch Team 2018 W-L-T +30 Baltimore 9-6-1 +26 Jacksonville 6-9-1 Tampa Bay -18 -13 +5 +24 Miami 7-8-1 +20 Chicago 12-5-0 Philadelphia -6 -3 +3 +18 NY Giants 6-10-0 +19 LA Chargers 10-8-0 Detroit -5 -5 0 +16 Kansas City 7-9-0 +14 Tennessee 8-8-0 +18 LA Rams 10-7-1 Indianapolis +2 +2 0 +16 NY Jets 5-11-0 ALL: 47.5% ATS,38-42-2 Kansas City +9 +8 -1 ALL: 51.8% ATS, 43-40-2 Seattle +15 +12 -3 ’06-07 ch Team 2008 W-L-T ’15-16 ch Team 2017 W-L-T Dallas +3 -1 -4 +27 Tampa Bay 6-7-3 +27 Dallas 8-7-1 Atlanta +1 -5 -6 +18 Seattle 6-8-2 +14 Buffalo 7-9-0 +19 Baltimore 9-6-1 Denver +7 +1 -6 +18 Atlanta 9-9-0 +13 Cleveland 7-9-0 Washington +7 +1 -6 +15 Oakland 4-10-2 +12 Oakland 7-9-0 +14 Tennessee 8-10-0 LA Rams +11 0 -11 ALL: 44.0% ATS,33-42-5 ALL: 47.5% ATS, 38-42-4 Chicago +12 0 -12 Houston +13 0 -13 ’05-06 ch Team 2007 W-L-T +27 Baltimore 3-13-0 ’14-15 ch Team 2016 W-L-T Carolina +1 -14 -15 +18 Kansas City 9-7-0 +24 St. Louis 5-11-0 Cincinnati +17 Carolina 6-9-1 +1 -14 -15 +24 Green Bay 12-3-1 +17 NY Jets 6-8-2 Cleveland +7 -8 -15 +21 San Diego 11-5-0 +17 Washington 10-6-0 Miami +5 -10 -15 +20 New Orleans 6-10-0 +16 Oakland 10-6 LA Chargers +1 -17 -18 ALL: 46.8% ATS,37-42-1 ALL: 51.9% ATS, 40-37-3 NY Giants +2 -17 -19 ’04-05 ch Team 2006 W-L-T ’13-14 ch Team 2015 W-L-T +29 Denver 5-11-0 +32 Houston 9-7-0 ’12-13 ch Team 2014 W-L-T +20 Cincinnati 8-8-0 +19 Detroit 7-8-1 +42 Kansas City 10-5-1 +18 Miami 6-10-0 +17 Green Bay 9-7-0 +36 Philadelphia 8-8-0 +16 Tampa Bay 6-9-1 +14 Cleveland 5-11-0 +24 Indianapolis 11-5-0 +15 Kansas City 8-7-1 +12 Atlanta 6-10-0 +21 Dallas 10-6-0 ALL: 42.3% ATS,33-45-2 +12 NY Giants 9-7 +16 Buffalo 9-7-0 ALL: 47.4% ATS, 45-50-1 ALL: 60.7% ATS, 51-33-1 (Listed in order of Net Change from prior season)

2020 NFL STATS -- BOBBYSMITH.COM 5 2020 NFL STATS NFL Quarterback Fumbles and Plays per Lost Fumble For many reasons, fumble stats can be fickle from season to season. Say what you will about , the veteran quarterback can see from this table. jettisoned by the this spring, but the guy did One of the purposes of producing this data is to help isolate the not lose a fumble in 2018. Neither did anyone who played in his disaster-laden teams who have opportunities to correct a ton place. In 2019, with Newton missing the last 14 games, Pan- of mistakes and replace them with well-executed plays. When thers quarterbacks lost 10 fumbles, two more than quarterbacks teams are successful at turning the tide, it usually results in im- for the team that had lost the most QB fumbles in 2018 (Phila- proved pointspread profitability. Jones, with better coaching from delphia). That’s a lot of lost quarterback fumbles! But while the a new Giants staff, is eligible to improve in his sophomore year Panthers were suffering growing pains at the position, the New following the bad habit of his rookie season. The Panthers have York Giants took the mother of all miscues to a new level of acquired Teddy Bridgewater, never known as a fumbler, to play abject horror. Their alleged “Franchise QB Heir” Daniel Jones, the position in place of the no-names who were inserted after who we called “Fumblin’ Daniel Jones” before the 2019 regular Newton’s injury. season had begun (because we watch college football, and we knew!) fumbled 18 times in 13 games! He lost 11 of the fumbles! Take a look near the top, and bottom, of the QB Fumbles table Holy cow, what a clown show! Fellow rookie QB and what do you see? You see many non-playoff teams near had a mere 5-2 Fumbles-Lost season! The Steelers’ two back- the top (who lost the most QB fumbles) and many playoff teams ups behind lost only 1 fumble! near the bottom, who QBs lost the fewest (in the 0-3 range). Not a coincidence! At the very bottom of the list is the New Orleans Quarterback fumbles are depressing! They cannot happen! Saints, who hadn’t lost a quarterback fumble in the regular sea- They are ruinous to a team’ chances of winning. They give op- son, then found themselves trailing the Vikings in the fourth quar- ponents incredible momentum! They get coaches fired, as you ter of their Divisional Round playoff game. And then, well, here’s what the headline said afterwards: “Vikings 2019 QB % Fum Head OFF DEF Fum Lost 2018 2019 2018 2019 Fumbles Lost Coach PPLF PPLF Force Disastrous Fumble Right on Edge of Red Zone Late in Fourth.” Ha! NY Giants 21 12 57.1% FIRED! Ari 90 167 Ari 118 108 Disastrous, just like I said! The only lost QB Carolina 16 10 62.5% FIRED! Atl 92 110 Atl 258 123 fumble by the Saints all season long blew Cincinnati 12 7 58.3% Bal 103 152 Bal 195 77 any chance they had at coming back to win Philadelphia 16 7 43.8% Buf 112 145 Buf 88 109 that game! Atlanta 10 6 60.0% Car 169 77 Car 95 149 Another purpose of tracking this data is to Indianapolis 9 6 66.7% Chi 101 146 Chi 112 113 isolate the overly fortunate teams, so as Jacksonville 9 6 66.7% **Fired! Cin 235 75 Cin 181 207 not to be surprised if and when misfortune Buffalo 17 5 29.4% Cle 146 139 Cle 80 169 comes their way. The Saints now have the best Plays Per Lost Fumble ratio of any LA Rams 10 5 50.0% Dal 114 153 Dal 89 102 NFL team since I started tracking the stat Den 169 159 Den 93 143 San Frncisco 10 5 50.0% in the Zone Blitz. This is not necessarily a Tampa Bay 12 5 41.7% Det 146 128 Det 135 99 good thing. They lost a fumble once every Washington 14 5 35.7% FIRED! GB 93 113 GB 127 125 506 snaps, while the next-best team in that Denver 11 4 36.4% Hou 149 127 Hou 73 102 department (New England) lost a fumble Green Bay 4 4 100.0% Ind 119 92 Ind 90 123 once every 183 snaps. If the law of aver- ages decides to strike against New Orleans Minnesota 11 4 36.4% Jax 63 85 Jax 162 111 KC 166 98 KC 92 149 this season, look out! We’ve seen other NY Jets 13 4 30.8% teams suddenly become a lot more fumble- LaC 118 91 LaC 141 308 Oakland 10 4 40.0% prone after establishing lost fumble rates LaR 135 151 LaR 140 96 Detroit 7 3 42.9% in the 1-every-300-snap range, and the Mia 151 128 Mia 80 351 Houston 10 3 30.0% Saints’ rate of one lost fumble every 506 Min 88 81 Min 146 75 snaps was off-the-charts better! LA Chargers 8 3 37.5% NE 100 183 NE 124 86 Tennessee 9 3 33.3% Meanwhile, a cluster of defenses enjoyed NO 153 506 NO 100 100 Arizona 5 2 40.0% overly strong fumble recovery seasons NyG 112 63 NyG 82 177 in 2019: Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Se- Baltimore 9 2 22.2% NyJ 141 106 NyJ 207 115 attle and Tampa Bay. Seattle, in particular, Chicago 5 2 40.0% Oak 88 110 Oak 152 161 seems to be dwelling in dangerous territory Cleveland 6 2 33.3% FIRED! because they’ve had extra good defensive Phi 71 74 Phi 324 107 Dallas 6 2 33.3% FIRED! PPLFs for two straight seasons, making the Pit 86 85 Pit 143 57 Kansas City 5 2 40.0% playoffs each time and exceeding the ma- SF 84 101 SF 205 65 jority of doom-and-gloom projections that Miami 10 2 20.0% Sea 253 75 Sea 68 63 were made for them. How much longer can 8 2 25.0% Seattle TB 117 99 TB 125 67 they keep this up? Maybe not for long, eh? NewEnglnd 1 1 100.0% Ten 156 105 Ten 167 117 All four of the defenses mentioned above Pittsburgh 10 1 10.0% Was 242 111 Was 91 120 enjoyed PPLF rates better than the top two NewOrleans 1 0 0.0% teams from 2018, which were Seattle and MED 117 126 MED 124 127 TOTAL 305 129 42.3% 6 Houston. -- Bobby Smith ** Team President Fired! 2020 NFL STATS -- BOBBYSMITH.COM 6 The Curse of Getting Too Many Interceptions This is a relatively new phenomenon and Next possibly too small a sample to take super- Season Team >22 INTs INTs W L T ATS % W L T ATS % seriously, but there is no arguing that a Season trend has developed after teams exceed a certain number of interceptions in a 16- 2012 Chicago 24 8 8 0 50.0% 2013 4 11 1 26.7% game regular season. The trend is that the following season has been a pointspread 2014 San Francisco 23 7 9 0 43.8% 2015 7 9 0 43.8% disaster. 2015 Carolina 24 13 6 0 68.4% 2016 6 9 1 40.0% The threshold number in this instance is 23, which is almost an average of one-and-a- 2018 Chicago 27 12 5 0 70.6% 2019 4 12 0 25.0% half interceptions per game. As the table at left indicates, the last four teams to have to 2019 New England 25 8 8 1 50.0% 2020 ------have intercepted 23 or more passes have been abysmal vs. the spread in the follow- TOTAL 48 36 1 57.1% 21 41 2 33.9% ing season. Those four teams have been spread over eight years. In the 2013, 2016 and 2017 seasons, no NFL defense picked as many as 23 passes. Headline writers don’t understand football trends. They think that every statistic from last season will be repeated the following season and that everything will stay the same. Thus, the hopeful headline at the right, from the Chicago Tribune after two Chicago Bears games in 2019.  The guy who wrote the story, Brad Biggs, knew otherwise: “The defense this season has been stout through two games -- allowing only 24 points -- but the Bears have only one INT ATS takeaway… It’s worth wondering when, or if, the takeaways will come more regu- Season Team W L T % larly… It’s important to note that turnover data doesn’t necessarily carry over from 2004 Carolina 26 11 7 0 61.1% one season to the next. The Bears essentially have the same personnel as they did in 2018 – Ha-Ha Clinton Dix is the only new starter -- but history shows that 2004 Buffalo 24 7 8 1 46.7% turnovers are unpredictable. For instance, the Bears had only eight interceptions in 2005 Cincinnati 31 8 7 1 53.3% 2017, 2016 and 2015, tying a franchise low despite the presence of mastermind Vic 2005 Chicago 24 10 9 0 52.6% Fangio and regarded secondary coach . Sure, the personnel gradually improved from year to year, but it’s a stretch to say the addition of [Khalil] Mack last 2005 Minnesota 24 7 9 0 43.8% year made the defense 19 interceptions better. 2006 Baltimore 28 7 9 0 43.8% “It’s been emphasized, but we’re not worried,” DB said. “We 2006 Chicago 24 3 13 0 18.8% know they’re going to come and we’re going to make it happen. It’s a lot different 2007 San Diego 30 8 9 1 47.1% than last year when we were getting them right out of the gate, but it’s early. I am 2008 Baltimore 28 9 8 1 52.9% sure it will come.” 2009 Green Bay 30 13 7 0 65.0% Guess what? It didn’t come! The Bears’ defense, called “opportunistic” in 2018, assumed to remain opportunistic after the calendar had turned, was not opportunistic in 2019! Chi- 2009 Buffalo 28 8 7 1 53.3% cago intercepted only 10 passes, 63% fewer than the team’s total from the season before! 2009 New Orleans 26 7 10 0 41.2% The Bears didn’t make the playoffs, as they had the season before when they hosted a 2009 Philadelphia 25 7 10 0 41.2% Wild Card game! They were a horrible 4-12 ATS same as the Cleveland Browns! It wasn’t 2010 New England 25 10 9 0 52.6% the first time that the Bears regressed significantly following an over-the-top interception count (see 2012 to 2013 difference in the table at the top of the page!). 2010 Green Bay 24 11 6 0 64.7% Going into 2020, there is one and only one candidate to continue (or break) this trend, and 2011 Green Bay 31 10 8 0 55.6% what a candidate it is: the . The IBM of the NFL. The most profitable 9-yr TOTAL -- 136 136 5 50.0% flat-betting team of the last 10 years. Coincidentally, this situation arises as the Patriots The curse of the big interception team wasn’t are preparing to play without one of the least turnover-prone quarterbacks ever, Tom always in effect. In the nine NFL seasons pri- Brady, for the first time in 20 years. Also, the Patriots are coming off one of their weakest or to 2012, sixteen teams intercepted 24 or seasons against the spread as it is, the 8-8-1 ATS being tied for their second-weakest more passes and combined to be 50% ATS since 2003. (Their weakest was 2009, the year after Brady had missed 15 games with the following season. But most of the “suc- an injury, when they were 7-9 ATS). The Pats intercepted 18 of their 25 passes in the first cess” was due to one team, the Green Bay seven games of 2019, during which they were 5-2 ATS. When they picked only 9 passes Packers, who were 34-21 ATS (62%) in three in the final ten games, they were 3-6-1 ATS, a 33% ATS mark that matches the combined subsequent seasons after getting 30, 24 and rate of the last four teams that exceeded 23 INTs in a regular season. The handwriting is 31 INTs the season before. on the wall. Can they erase it? We shall see! – Bobby Smith

2020 NFL STATS -- BOBBYSMITH.COM 7 2020 NFL STATS NFL Straight-Up Wins by Season, 2009-2019* Team 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Arizona 10 5 8 5 10 11 13 7 8 3 5 Atlanta 9 13 10 13 4 6 8 11 10 7 7 Baltimore 9 12 12 10 8 10 5 8 9 10 14 Buffalo 6 4 6 6 6 9 8 7 9 6 10 Carolina 8 2 6 7 12 7 15 6 11 7 5 Chicago 7 11 8 10 8 5 6 3 5 12 8 Cincinnati 9 4 9 10 12 10 12 6 7 6 2 Cleveland 6 5 4 5 4 7 3 1 0 7 6 Dallas 11 6 8 8 8 12 4 12 9 10 8 Denver 8 4 8 13 13 12 12 9 5 6 7 Detroit 2 6 10 4 7 11 7 9 9 6 3 Green Bay 11 10 15 11 8 12 10 10 7 6 13 Houston 9 6 10 12 2 9 9 9 4 11 10 Indianapolis 14 10 2 11 11 11 8 8 4 10 7 Jacksonville 7 8 5 2 4 3 5 3 10 5 6 Kansas City 4 10 7 2 11 9 11 12 10 12 12 LA Chargers 13 9 8 7 9 9 4 5 9 12 5 LA Rams 1 7 2 7 7 6 7 4 11 13 9 Miami 7 7 6 7 7 8 6 10 6 7 5 Minnesota 12 6 3 10 5 7 11 8 13 8 10 New England 10 14 12 12 12 12 12 14 13 11 12 New Orleans 14 11 13 7 11 7 7 7 11 13 13 NY Giants 8 10 9 9 7 6 6 11 3 5 3 NY Jets 9 11 8 6 8 4 10 5 5 4 7 Oakland 5 8 7 4 4 3 7 12 6 4 7 Philadelphia 11 10 8 4 10 10 7 7 13 9 9 Pittsburgh 9 12 12 8 8 11 10 11 13 9 8 San Francisco 8 6 13 11 12 8 5 2 6 4 13 Seattle 5 7 7 11 13 12 10 10 9 10 11 Tampa Bay 2 10 4 7 4 2 6 10 5 5 8 Tennessee 8 6 9 6 7 2 3 9 9 9 9 Washington 4 6 5 10 3 4 9 8 7 7 3 # of Teams 15 10 12 9 9 11 10 15 10 9 +/- 4 Change

Last year was a light one for significant straight-up record * Regular season only changes in the NFL. Only nine teams won or lost at least four more games than they had the season before. That’s the low It’s easy to assume that last year’s records will stay close to the number for the last ten years, tied with 2015 and 2016. The same. That’s why it’s important to remember that in any given high number of teams registering that much change from sea- season, 28% to 47% of the teams in the league will experience son to season is 15, which occurred in both 2017 and 2010. changes in wins of at least 4 games, either better or worse. You The 49ers’ increase from 4 wins to 13 (+9) was the biggest have to admire the consistency of Kansas City, New England positive jump since Kansas City and Indianapolis registered and Seattle, who have maintained high win levels without much +9 in 2013 and 2012. The Chargers’ regression of -7 was the change for half a decade of more. The Chiefs have won from 9 worst since the Giants’ -8 in 2017, but Carolina’s -9 in 2016 to 12 games seven years running; New England from 11 to 14 was worse than that. Even worse than that was when Houston wins ten years running; Seattle from 9 to 13 wins eight years went from 12 wins to 2 (-10) in 2013, which stands as the worst running, never with a gain or drop of more than +/-2 in that regression in the NFL in the last ten years. span.-- Bobby Smith 2020 NFL STATS -- BOBBYSMITH.COM 8 Notes:

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