National Drought Management Authority COUNTY

DROUGHT MONITORING AND EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, DECEMBER 2013

Livelihood Zone Warning stage Trend Pastoral Normal Stable

Agro Pastoral Normal Stable

Marginal Mixed Normal Stable Farming

Mixed Farming Normal Stable

County Normal Stable

Seasonal Calendar . Milk yield drops . Increased milk yield . Low milk availability . Increased milk yield. . Decline in livestock . High Calving and lambing . Water and pasture stress . Calving rates increases prices rates. experienced across all livelihood . Decline in livestock sale . water stress zones experienced across all livelihood zones Short dry spell Long rains Long dry spell Short rains

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Short rains Land Planting/weeding Crops at Long rains harvest Land Planting/Weeding Crops at green harvest Preparation green Preparation maturity maturity .

EARLY WARNING BULLETIN - KAJIADO COUNTY 1

Situation Overview Wet weather conditions prevailed within the county during the month of December, with rainfall being recorded in all parts of the county in the month. The food purchase price remained relatively high within the month of December as compared to the normal prices for this time of the year. Planting and replanting was the main agricultural activities taking place within the county in the month of December.

Pasture and browse availability and accessibility was good in the month of December across all the livelihood zones. Notable areas with poor pastures included Olkiramatian and Oldorko within Magadi Division, Kimana and Seneti in , Embuko and Merueshi in Mashuru and Engirgir and Ilpolosat in Isinya. Livestock body conditions were fair across all the animal species with no major disease outbreak being reported within the month.

Water availability and accessibility was good in the month of December. The communities are predominantly relying on natural rivers, traditional river wells and boreholes for both domestic and livestock consumption. The rainfall received in the County has resulted in full recharge of the water levels in all the water reservoirs within the county. Distances in search of water for both domestic and livestock consumption declined within the month of December as a result of the recharge caused by the rains.

There were no reported cases of human disease outbreak within the month, though there has been an upsurge of malaria related ailments which is also leading in morbidity rates. The child nutritional status indicated an improving trend within the month of December.

The rainfall received within the month of December resulted in notable changes on the Environmental indicators, rural indicators and Welfare indicators. The County situation can be described as Normal and Stable.

Recommendations to County Authorities/County Steering Group (CSG) and National Food Security Steering Group  Upgrading of breeding stock and introduction of livestock adapted to harsh conditions. Areas to be targeted include: Ngong, Ewuaso Kedong, & Magadi. Action: Livestock production department, KARI & other livestock breeder’s societies  Drilling and equipping of olekule borehole in Ilpolosat Olotuloto division Action: DWO/CSG/Partners.  Equipping of emakoko borehole in Sholinke, division. Action: DWO/CSG/Partners.  Upscale of Vitamin A uptake and surveillance of nutrition status for children under the age of five within all health facilities within the County. Action: MOH/CSG/Partners.  Repair of Mashuru Bridge which links Mashuru town with Kajiado town. The bridge fell due to the continued use by overloaded trucks ferrying sand harvested in Mashuru to other parts of the County as well as outside the County.  Intensified campaigns on latrine construction and usage across the county. Action:MOH/CSG/AMREF Current Intervention Measures and Coping Strategies Non-food interventions  Capacity building on water harvesting techniques in all divisions within the county by MOA.  Vitamin A Supplementation in all health facilities within the county by M.O.H.  Rehabilitation of Emurkeya Dam in Torosei by ACK diocese of Kajiado.  Rehabilitation and equipping of Torosei borehole by ACK diocese of Kajiado.  Disease surveillance by the department of veterinary.  Roof water harvesting promotion in 11 primary schools by German Agro Action.  Roof water harvesting promotion in 3 primary schools by AMREF in Enkorika. .

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1.0. ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS (STABILITY)

1.1 Rainfall: Amount of rainfall The county received an average of 84mm of rainfall within the month of December. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 103.mm, the situation reveals a below normal trend during this period of the year.  Temporal distribution During the month of December, an average total of 84mm of rainfall was recorded. The highest amounts of rainfall were recorded during the first two weeks of the month of December before finally ceasing on the third week of December. Loitokitok division recorded the highest amount of rainfall with an average of 81mm while Magadi Division recorded the lowest amount of rainfall with an average of 42mm.  Spatial distribution During the month of December, the rainfall recorded within the County was characterized by uneven distribution both in amount and spacing across the entire county. The rains were erratic in nature and comprised of heavy showers followed by two to days of dry intervals. Loitokitok recorded the highest number of wet days with a total of 13 days while Magadi recorded the least wets days of 6.

Source: NDMA

1.2. Condition of Natural Vegetation and Pasture  Quality Pastures and browse quality within the County was good across all livelihood zones. In comparison to the month of November, the quality of pasture and browse in the month of December improved considerably. This is attributed to the short rains which lead to the regeneration of pasture and browse across the entire County. The current quality of pasture and browse is normal at this time of the year.  Quantity The quantity of Pasture and browse within the County was fair across all the livelihood zones. In comparison to the month of November, the quantity of pasture and browse within the County improved considerably and this is attributed to the short rains which lead to the regeneration of pasture and browse. The current situation is normal at this time of the year. 1.3. Water Sources and Availability  Water Sources Water availability and accessibility was good across the entire county. Currently, communities are relying on Natural Rivers, shallow wells and pans for both domestic and livestock consumption. The current situation is normal at this time of the year. The commencement of the short rains resulted in recharge of water levels in most of the water points within the county, resulting in the easing of pressure and congestion at the water points .

EARLY WARNING BULLETIN - KAJIADO COUNTY 3  Household access to Water Communities within the Pastoral livelihood zones depend on pans and natural rivers for both domestic and livestock consumption, while within the agro pastoral livelihood zones, they rely on dams for domestic and livestock consumption. The average distance from the households to the main water sources in the month of December was 3.7 kilometers. In comparison to the month of November where distances covered from the households to the main water sources was 5.4 kilometers, the distances have declined within the month of December. The decline in distances covered in search of water for domestic consumption is attributed to the short rains received within the month. Communities living in the Pastoral livelihood zones are covering an average 4.1 Kilometers in search of water, while the communities living within the Agro pastoral livelihood zones are covering an average of 2.3 kilometers. The current distances covered in search of water are below normal at this time of the year as shown below.

Average Distances to Water Sources 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Distances in kilometersinDistances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Long Term Distances(2007-2012) 6 8 10.5 10 15 15 15 15 14 12 6 6 2013 Average Distances 2 3 3 3 3 3.5 4 4.5 5.6 6.1 5.4 3.7

Source: NDMA, N=270 Households  Livestock access to water The average distance covered by livestock from the grazing areas to main water sources in the month of December was 5 kilometers. In comparison to the month of November where the livestock covered 6.6 kilometers, the distances covered by the livestock in the month of December have declined. The decline in distance covered by livestock is attributed to the short rains received within the month of December, recharging all water points. Livestock within the pastoral livelihood zones covered an average of 7.4 kilometers in search of water as compared to the Agro pastoral livelihood zones which covered 2.3 kilometers. In comparison to the average distances covered at this time of the year, the current distances are below normal.

AVERAGE DISTANCES FROM GRAZING AREAS TO WATER SOURCES 8 7 6 5 4 3 2

Distances in in Kilometers Distances 1 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep. Oct Nov Dec Long Term Average Distances (2005- 4 5 5 5 5 7.5 7 9 9 9 6 4 2012) 2013 Average Distances 2 3 3 3 3 5 5.3 5.8 6.6 7 6.6 5

Source: NDMA, N=270 Households

EARLY WARNING BULLETIN - KAJIADO COUNTY 4 1.4 Emerging Issues. 1.4.1 Insecurity/conflict /human displacement.  There were no reported cases of insecurity. 1.4.2. Migration  There was movement of cattle from Oldoinyio and Olkeri areas in Magadi to Kapongo and Kwenia. Also cattle are moving from Olkiramatian and Oldorko areas in Magadi to Ngurumani escarpment. In Isinya, the cattle moved from Engirgir and Ilpolosat towards Sultan Hamud, while in Loitokitok, the cattle moved from Kimana and Seneti towards Kyulu hills. In Rombo, the livestock have been moved towards the Tsavo National park. However, with the short rains received in all parts of the county, there is regeneration of pasture and browse and recharging of all water points, it is expected that in the coming month, the livestock will have all moved back to their normal wet season grazing areas. 1.4.2 Other Factors likely to Affect Livelihoods  The commencement and persistence of the short rains left most of the roads within the county impassable. This greatly hindered movement of goods, livestock and human beings from one point to the other and especially accessibility to markets was greatly affected. 1.5 Implications on food security  Reduced distances to the water sources for both livestock and human consumption indicate a food secure situation. 2.0 RURAL ECONOMY INDICATORS (AVAILABILITY) 2.1 Livestock Production. 2.1.1 Livestock body condition  Livestock body conditions were fairly good on all animal species within the month of December. The current livestock body conditions are attributed to the improved quantity and quality of pasture and browse and the availability of water within reasonable distances. The current livestock body conditions are not normal at this time of the year. The livestock body conditions are expected to improve even further in the coming month due to the availability and accessibility of pasture and browse. 2.1.2. Livestock diseases  No disease outbreaks reported, however CCPP, FMD, Trypanosomiasis and worms remained endemic across all the livelihood zones. 2.1.3. Milk production.  On average the milk produced per household within Kajiado County was 134 bottles of 750ml in the month of December. In comparison to the month of November, where the average milk produced per household was 116 bottles of 750ml, the milk production level has improved within the month of December. This is attributed to the declined distances covered in search of water and availability of pasture and browse. The current milk production rate per household is still below normal at this time of the year. On average, the pastoral livelihood zones produced a total production of 165 bottles of 750ml while the agro pastoral livelihood zones produced a total of 500 bottles of 750ml. The disparity in output production is attributed to the disparity in livestock population density, availability of pasture and browse and the distances covered from the grazing areas to the watering point. It is expected that the milk production levels within the county will be on the increase due to the reduced distances from the main grazing areas to the watering points and the improved quantity and quality of pasture and browse. 2.2.0 Crop Production 2.2.1 Timeliness and condition of various crop productions  The commencement of the short rains within the last week of December led to most farmers within the agro pastoral livelihood zones to embark on planting and replanting. The planted crops have germinated in most of the farms. The acreage under crop production during this short rains season is however very low as compared to a normal year and this is attributed to lack of planting seeds and the late commencement of the short rains.  The planted crops have germinated, with the maize crop at knee height while the beans are at flowering stage while others are at the podding stage. The crops under irrigation are at maturity stage with the maize at the cobbing and filling stage while others are fully matured.

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2.2.2 Pests and diseases  No outstanding incidences of pests and diseases on crops reported. 2.2.3 Harvests  No harvesting was reported within the month the month of December. 2.3 Implications on food security  The reduced acreage put under crop production indicate a food insecure situation. 3.0 ACCESSIBILITY 3.1 Livestock marketing 3.1.1 Cattle Prices  The average price of a mature 3 year old bull in the month of December was Kshs 19,600. In comparison to the month of November, where the price of a 3 year old mature bull was Kshs 19,500, the prices in December have increased slightly. The increase in the cattle prices in the month of December is attributed to the Christmas festivities which saw an increase in the demand for the cattle. The cattle prices within the pastoral livelihood zones were the highest with an average of Kshs 22,000 for a mature 3 year old bull while the Agro pastoral livelihood zones had the lowest prices with an average price of Kshs 19,600. The difference in prices between the two livelihood zones is attributed to the difference in livestock volumes. The current cattle price of Kshs 19,600 is above normal at this period of the year as shown on the graph below of average cattle prices.

Source: NDMA, N=270 Household

3.1.2 Goat Prices  The average price of a medium size goat in the month of December was Kshs 3,000. In comparison to the month of November, where the average price of a medium size goat was Kshs 2,923, the prices in December have increased. The increase in goat prices is attributed to the high demand for the goats during the Christmas festivities. The Agro pastoral livelihood zones recorded the highest medium size goat prices of Kshs 3,400 while the Pastoral livelihood zones recorded the lowest prices with an average of Kshs 2,550. The difference in prices between the two livelihood zones is attributed to the difference in livestock volumes. The current prices are above normal at this time of the year as shown below on the average goat prices graph.

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Source: NDMA, N=270 Household 3.1.3. Sheep Prices  The average price of a medium size sheep in the month of December was Kshs 2,779. In comparison to the month of November, where the average price of a medium size sheep was Kshs 2,692, the prices in December have increased. The price increase is attributed to the improving body conditions and the high demand for the sheep due to the Christmas festivities. The Agro pastoral livelihood zones recorded the highest medium size goat prices of Kshs 3,100 while the Pastoral livelihood zones recorded the lowest prices with an average of Kshs 2,500. The difference in prices between the two livelihood zones is attributed to the difference in livestock volumes. The current prices are above normal at this time of the year as shown below on the average sheep prices graph.

Source: NDMA, N=270 Household 3.2. Livestock sales  During the month of December, livestock sales increased and specifically for cattle and goats which had a sales rate of 2.79% and 3.77% respectively. The high goat’s sales are attributed to the Christmas festivities. 3.3. Milk consumption  On average the milk consumed per household was 60 bottles of 750 ml in the month of December. In comparison to the month of November, where the average milk consumed per household was 49 bottles of 750 ml, the milk consumption level has increased within the month of December. The increase in milk consumption is attributed to the increase in milk production levels within the County. In comparison with a normal year where on average milk consumed per household is 130 bottles of 750ml, the current milk consumption rate per household is below normal at this time of the year. EARLY WARNING BULLETIN - KAJIADO COUNTY 7 3.4. Crop prices 3.4.1. Maize Prices  The average maize price per kilogram for the month of December was Kshs 47. In comparison to the month of November, where the average price per kilogram of maize was Kshs 46, the maize prices increased in the month of December. The high maize prices are attributed to the high demand for planting seeds as well as demand for domestic consumption. In comparison to the average maize price for this time of the year, the current maize prices are above normal. Mashuru division had the highest maize prices at Kshs 63 per Kilogram while Loitokitok division had the lowest at Kshs 35 per kilogram. It is worth noting that Loitokitok recorded the lowest prices as compared to other divisions and this is attributed to the division having a boarder point with neighbouring country of Tanzania which is a major producer of maize crop found in the markets within the division.

Source: NDMA, N=270 Household 3.4.2. Beans prices  The average beans price per kilogram for the month of December was Kshs 90. In comparison to the month of November, where the average price per kilogram was Kshs 89, the beans prices have increased in the month of December. In comparison to the average beans price for this time of the year, the current beans prices are above normal. The high beans prices are attributed to the high demand for the crop for both domestic consumption and as planting seed. Central division had the highest maize prices at Kshs 100 per Kilogram while Mashuru division had the lowest at Kshs 80 per kilogram.

Kajiado County Average Beans Prices 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20

Prices Shillings Kenya in Prices 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Long Term Average Prices 63 63 64 66 68 67 63 65 63 64 66 67 (2006-2012) 2013 Prices 150 130 130 120 95 83 84 85 86 88 89 90

Source: NDMA, N=270 Household

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3.5. Income 3.5.1. Crop income 3.5.2. During the month of December, income from sale of crops accounted for 0% of the total household income. This is attributed to the fact that in the month of December, most farmers within the agro pastoral livelihood zones were re-planting and wedding. Due to the shortage of planting seeds, most of the farmers rely on their stocks as planting seeds and the rest consumed at household levels thus, leaving no stocks to sell at the markets. 3.5.3. Livestock income  Income from livestock sales accounted for 41% of the total household income in the month of December. In comparison to the month of November, were income from sale of livestock also accounted for 37% of the total household income, there was an increase in the income realised from sale of livestock in the month of December. The increase in livestock sales and especially goats is attributed to the Christmas festivities. Income from the sale of livestock was realized within the all livelihood zones. In comparison to a normal year, where income from livestock sales accounted for 40% of the total household income, the current income from livestock sale is above normal for this time of the year. 3.5.4. Other income  Other sources of income at the household level included; casual labour contributing 39% of the total household income, petty trade 14% and formal employment 5%. 3.6. Implications on food security. The increasing availability of opportunities for casual labour and the good prices for livestock indicates a food secure situation.

Source: NDMA, N=270 Household

4.0 WELFARE INDICATORS (UTILIZATION OF FOOD): 4.1 Nutrition Status.  The percentage of children under the risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of December was 7.8%. In comparison to the month of November, where the percentage of children at risk of malnutrition was 8.6%, the nutritional status for children under the age of 5 years has improved within the month of December. The improved nutritional status of children under the age of 5 years is attributed to the increasing milk production levels, causing the milk consumption rates amongst children under the age of five years to increase. Currently, the percentage of children under the risk of malnutrition is higher within the agro pastoral livelihood zones with a percentage of 8.7% while the percentage of children under risk of malnutrition within the pastoral livelihood zones was 5.5%.

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Source: NDMA, N = 1,620 Children

4.2 Human Health.  No outstanding human disease reported; though there has been an upsurge of malaria related ailments which is also leading in morbidity rates. 4.3 Flagged areas  The area noted with the highest levels of children at risk of malnutrition was Rombo with a MUAC level of 28.7%. 5.0. Current Intervention Measures and Coping Strategies 5.1 Non-food interventions.  Capacity building on water harvesting techniques in all divisions within the county by MOA.  Vitamin A Supplementation in all health facilities within the county by M.O.H.  Rehabilitation of Emurkeya Dam in Torosei by ACK diocese of Kajiado.  Rehabilitation and equipping of Torosei borehole by ACK diocese of Kajiado.  Disease surveillance by the department of veterinary.  Roof water harvesting promotion in 11 primary schools by German Agro Action.  Roof water harvesting promotion in 3 primary schools by AMREF in Enkorika. 5.2. Food Aid  Currently there are no food aid interventions within the county 6.0. Recommendations for Action Recommendations to County Steering Group/Kenya Food Security Meeting.  Upgrading of breeding stock and introduction of livestock adapted to harsh conditions. Areas to be targeted include: Ngong, Ewuaso Kedong, Ongata Rongai & Magadi Action: Livestock production department, KARI & other livestock breeder’s societies  Drilling and equipping of olekule borehole in Ilpolosat Olotuloto division Action: DWO/CSG/Partners.  Equipping of emakoko borehole in Sholinke, Kitengela division. Action: DWO/CSG/Partners.  Enhance support to small scale irrigation activities through provision of water pumps and restocking of vulnerable families to improve food security at household level. Action: DAO/MDNK&OAL/DSG/Partners/Community  Upscale of Vitamin A uptake and surveillance of nutrition status for children under the age of five within all health facilities within the County. Action: MOH/CSG/Partners.  Repair of Mashuru Bridge which links Mashuru town with Kajiado town. The bridge fell due to the continued use by overloaded trucks ferrying sand harvested in Mashuru to other parts of the County as well as outside the County. Action: M.O.R/ County Government.  Intensify campaigns on latrine construction and usage across the county. Action:MOH/CSG/AMREF

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WARNING STAGES NORMAL: Environmental, Livestock and pastoral welfare indicators show no unusual fluctuations and remain in the expected seasonal range.

ALERT: Environmental indicators show unusual fluctuations outside expected seasonal ranges. This occurs within the entire district, or within localised regions; OR: Asset levels of households are still too low to provide an adequate subsistence level and vulnerability to food insecurity is still high.

ALARM: Environmental and livestock/Agriculture indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges, affecting the local economy. This condition occurs in most parts of the district, and directly and indirectly threatens food security of pastoralists and/or agro-pastoralists.

EMERGENCY: All indicators are fluctuating outside normal ranges. Local production systems are collapsed as well as the dominant economy within the district. This situation affects the asset status and purchasing power of the population to an extent that welfare levels have been seriously worsened resulting in famine threat.

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