Cass-Capco Institute Paper Series on Risk
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the journal of financial transformation journal 03/2009/#25 Cass-Capco Institute Paper Series on Risk Recipient of the APEX Awards for Publication Excellence 2002-2008 Minimise risk, optimise success With a Masters degree from Cass Business School, you will gain the knowledge and skills to stand out in the real world. MSc in Insurance and Risk Management Cass is one of the world’s leading academic centres For applicants to the Insurance and Risk in the insurance field. What's more, graduates Management MSc who already hold a from the MSc in Insurance and Risk Management CII Advanced Diploma, there is a fast-track gain exemption from approximately 70% of the January start, giving exemption from the examinations required to achieve the Advanced first term of the degree. Diploma of the Chartered Insurance Institute (ACII). To find out more about our regular information sessions, the next is 10 April 2008, visit www.cass.city.ac.uk/masters and click on 'sessions at Cass' or 'International & UK'. Alternatively call admissions on: +44 (0)20 7040 8611 Editor Shahin Shojai, Global Head of Strategic Research, Capco Advisory Editors Dai Bedford, Partner, Capco Nick Jackson, Partner, Capco Keith MacDonald, Partner, Capco Editorial Board Franklin Allen, Nippon Life Professor of Finance, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Joe Anastasio, Partner, Capco Philippe d’Arvisenet, Group Chief Economist, BNP Paribas Rudi Bogni, former Chief Executive Officer, UBS Private Banking Bruno Bonati, Strategic Consultant, Bruno Bonati Consulting David Clark, NED on the board of financial institutions and a former senior advisor to the FSA Géry Daeninck, former CEO, Robeco Stephen C. Daffron, Global Head, Operations, Institutional Trading & Investment Banking, Morgan Stanley Douglas W. Diamond, Merton H. Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago Elroy Dimson, BGI Professor of Investment Management, London Business School Nicholas Economides, Professor of Economics, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, New York University José Luis Escrivá, Group Chief Economist, Grupo BBVA George Feiger, Executive Vice President and Head of Wealth Management, Zions Bancorporation Gregorio de Felice, Group Chief Economist, Banca Intesa Hans Geiger, Professor of Banking, Swiss Banking Institute, University of Zurich Wilfried Hauck, Chief Executive Officer, Allianz Dresdner Asset Management International GmbH Pierre Hillion, de Picciotto Chaired Professor of Alternative Investments and Shell Professor of Finance, INSEAD Thomas Kloet, Senior Executive Vice-President & Chief Operating Officer, Fimat USA, Inc. Mitchel Lenson, former Group Head of IT and Operations, Deutsche Bank Group David Lester, Chief Information Officer, The London Stock Exchange Donald A. Marchand, Professor of Strategy and Information Management, IMD and Chairman and President of enterpriseIQ® Colin Mayer, Peter Moores Dean, Saïd Business School, Oxford University Robert J. McGrail, Executive Managing Director, Domestic and International Core Services, and CEO & President, Fixed Income Clearing Corporation John Owen, CEO, Library House Steve Perry, Executive Vice President, Visa Europe Derek Sach, Managing Director, Specialized Lending Services, The Royal Bank of Scotland John Taysom, Founder & Joint CEO, The Reuters Greenhouse Fund Graham Vickery, Head of Information Economy Unit, OECD Norbert Walter, Group Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Group TABlE of ConTEnTS PART 1 8 Opinion — Delta hedging a two-fixed-income- securities portfolio under gamma and vega constraints: the example of mortgage servicing rights Carlos E. Ortiz, Charles A. Stone, Anne Zissu PART 2 12 Opinion — Reducing the poor’s investment risk: introducing bearer money market mutual shares 88 Opinion — Risk management in the evolving investment Robert E. Wright management industry Philip Best, Mark Reeves 15 Opinion — financial risk and political risk in mature and emerging financial markets 91 Opinion — Bridging the gap — arbitrage free valuation of Wenjiang Jiang, Zhenyu Wu derivatives in AlM Peter den Iseger, Joeri Potters 19 Estimating the iceberg: how much fraud is there in the U.K.? 95 Does individual performance affect entrepreneurial David J. Hand, Gordon Blunt mobility? Empirical evidence from the financial analysis market 31 Enhanced credit default models for heterogeneous Boris Groysberg, Ashish Nanda, M Julia Prats SME segments Maria Elena DeGiuli, Dean Fantazzini, Silvia Figini, Paolo 107 A new approach for an integrated credit and market risk Giudici measurement of interest rate swap portfolios John Hatgioannides, George Petropoulos 41 The impact of demographics on economic policy: a huge risk often ignored 113 Risk drivers in historical simulation: scaled percentage Timothy J. Keogh, Stephen Jay Silver, D. Sykes Wilford changes versus first differences Su Xu, Stephen D. Young 51 Risk and return measures for a non-Gaussian world Michael R. Powers, Thomas Y. Powers 123 The impact of hedge fund family membership on performance and market share 55 Medium-term macroeconomic determinants of Nicole M. Boyson exchange rate volatility Claudio Morana 131 Public sector support of the banking industry Alistair Milne 65 Risk adjustment of bank stocks in the face of terror 145 Evaluating the integrity of consumer payment systems Dirk Schiereck, Felix Zeidler Valerie Dias 75 Macroeconomic risk — sources and distributions 155 A loss distribution for operational risk derived from according to a DSGE model of the E.U. pooled bank losses David Meenagh, Patrick Minford, Michael Wickens ManMohan S. Sodhi, Wayne Holland Dear Reader, No one can deny that the extent and ferocity of the events of the past year or so have been unexpected. We all went from having minor fears about an economic slowdown in Western economies, with the East somewhat shielded and a manageable crisis within the financial sector, to a situation where many are talking about a potential global depression and nationalization of most of the world’s major financial institutions. Everyday we are faced with even more worrying news. Yet despite the uncertainty, now is when we need a clear head and ideas about what must be done to survive, and possibly even prosper. When this paper series with Cass Business School was established in early 2007, we were convinced that many in the financial services sector underestimated the risks inherent in many of the instruments and transactions they were counterparty to, and that more financial discipline was needed to benefit from the array of innovations taking place. We highlighted a number of these concerns in the inaugural issue of the paper series and feel vindicated by the events that have transpired since. The establishment of this paper series exemplifies the reason we founded Capco in the first place, namely to help the industry in ways that were not previously possible. To help the industry recognize that fascinating formulas don’t necessarily represent accuracy, that operational risk is endemic, and that we have all got a long way to go before we come to grips with the risks each institution faces and the most effective ways of managing them. This second edition of the Cass-Capco Institute Paper Series on Risk covers the whole spectrum of financial sector risks. A number of papers focus on how risk could be better understood, measured, and managed. The paper series comes to life during our annual conference on April 6th at the Cass Business School, where we hope to see many of you. The challenges facing our industry have never been greater. That is why publications such as this are essential. We need to take a critical view of what went wrong, objectively identify where the shortfalls are, and ensure that we correct them for the future. These are the objectives of this issue, and have always been the ambitions of Capco and its partners. It is only through a better understanding of the past that we can make a brighter future. We hope that we have also been able to contribute in our own way to that journey. Obviously, we still have a long way to go before we achieve what we set out to do when we established Capco. But we shall stand shoulder to shoulder with our clients in ensur- ing that our industry achieves the levels of efficiency that we are certain it deserves. Our hope is that you will also join us in helping shape the future of our industry. Good reading and good luck. Yours, Rob Heyvaert, Founder and CEO, Capco The end of hubris After 40 years of growing confidence about our understanding of risk, many are now questioning the basic fundamentals of how it should be measured, let alone managed. Ever since the options pricing model was developed, so-called financial experts have been engineering exciting new instruments for the financial markets. As the complexity and variety of these instruments grew so did the thirst of the investment community for them. This helped create a vicious circle of demand and hubris. The last 40 years were the hubris years. It was not only in the financial markets that hubris over our understanding of the functioning of the models prevailed. Economists genuinely believed that they understood how economies operate and had developed models that could influence them. Economists at the IMF sincerely thought that they understood how economic tools could be applied and were certain of their implications. The events of the past two years have forced everyone to take a step back and reassess their models. Everyone has now realized that the world of economics is far too complex for anyone to be able to influence; that financial risk is dependent on far too many variables to be correctly measured; and that the certainty with which financial and economic experts spoke had no relationship to reality. We were aware of the risks that were inherent within the global financial system when we first established the Cass-Capco Institute Paper Series on Risk, and hoped that better dialogue between the world of finance and academia would help mitigate them. However, we had no idea that our timing was so perfect, that we were fast approaching the end of the hubris era.