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Yuanta Securities Source: Yuanta Securities Company Report Aug 10, 2018 CJ ENM (035760 KS) Media/entertainment Media and music good 2Q18 review Based on CJ O Shopping’s pre-merger earnings, consolidated sales came to W585.2bn (+4% YoY), OP W49.6bn (-23% YoY), and net profit from controlling interest (NPCI) W23.9bn (-27% YoY). The drop (YoY) in OP is due to base effect (parent CJ O Shopping saw a W9.0bn reversal of VAT in 2Q17), operating loss at the consolidated home shopping company, and lower OP at CJ Hello. When converted to a post-merger basis, consolidated sales came to W1.05tn (+7% YoY), OP W79.2bn (-10% YoY), and NPCI W72.5bn (-83% YoY). NP nosedived YoY, as the former CJ ENM enjoyed W500.0bn in asset valuation gains Rating BUY (U) after Netmarble’s rights offering in 2Q17. By division, media OP came to W29.2bn (Studio Target price W291,000 (U) Dragon W7.3bn, other W21.9bn), commerce W33.9bn, film -W3.9bn, music W4.2bn, and CJ Hello W15.7bn. Media and music OP rose, while commerce, film, and CJ Hello OP Current price (Aug 8) W236,200 fell. From 3Q18, the company will report consolidated earnings on a post-merger basis. Upside potential 23% The media division (formerly broadcasting, and key business of the new entity) generated strong earnings, despite lower earnings at Studio Dragon. 1) TV ad revenue Market cap (Wbn) 5,179 came to W141.9bn (+10% YoY), growing in the double-digits (YoY) for a second quarter Shares outstanding 21,926,384 straight, as prime time ad prices of its key TV channels continued to rise and the rebranding Avg daily T/O (2M, Wbn) 18 of its second-tier channels generated some results. 2) Digital ad sales grew 38% YoY. 3) CJ Avg daily volume (2M, shrs) 76,069 Blue of Vietnam suffered an operating loss of W3.0bn, worsening slightly YoY. 4) Media OP, 52-week high (won) 286,400 excluding Studio Dragon, rose 45% YoY from W15.1bn in 2Q17 to W21.9bn in 2Q18. It 52-week low (won) 191,100 is the highest since 1Q17, when Studio Dragon’s quarterly earnings became available. Foreign ownership (%) 20.9 Music earnings were robust on stronger in-house music sales. With sales of Wanna Major shareholders (%) One’s album, launched in Jun 2018, exceeded 640,000 units, sales of in-house CJ Corp and 5 others 42.7 album/digital music soared to W29.0bn (+83% YoY) and music OPM came to 6.3%. Stock performance Lift to BUY (%) 1M 3M 12M We lift our rating from HOLD to BUY and revise up our target price from W289,000 to Absolute (15.9) 9.9 12.4 291,000. Our new target price of W291,000, based on sum-of-the-parts, implies a 2019E Relative (13.2) 15.9 (6.5) P/E of 18.5x. We upgrade our rating, as shares have corrected since new shares were Abs (US$) (16.2) 5.6 12.9 listed in Jul 2018 after the merger. Thus, there is now a wide gap between the current and target prices. Our new target price does not factor in potential synergies from the merger and the disposal of CJ Hello and other key assets. Music earnings are likely to be revised up later, as new TV shows “Produce 48” and “Show Me The Money 777” will air, and Wanna One is holding its world tour in 2H18. In addition, idol groups deserve constant attention, as they are emerging as a pillar of the company’s in-house IP-based music business. Quarterly earnings Forecasts and valuations (K-IFRS, consolidated) (Wbn) (Wbn) 2Q18E % YoY % QoQ Consens vs consens (%) FY ends Dec 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E Sales 585 3.9 3.6 - - Sales 2,209 2,260 3,428 4,774 OP 50 -23.3 -10.5 - - OP 179 224 269 431 Net profit, CI 23 131 187 344 Pre-tax net profit 42 -24.0 -44.3 - - P/E (x) 46.3 9.4 27.7 15.1 Net profit, CI 24 -26.7 -59.7 - - P/B (x) 1.2 1.2 3.4 3.0 OPM (%) 8.5 -3.0 %pt -1.3 %pt - - EV/EBITDA 4.5 4.6 4.4 10.0 NPM (%) 4.1 -1.7 %pt -6.4 %pt - - ROE (%) 2.6 13.5 15.7 23.5 Source: Yuanta Securities Source: Yuanta Securities CJ ENM (035760 KS) New entity: consolidated earnings (pro-forma basis) (Wbn) 2017 2018 Full-year 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1QP 2QP 3QE 4QE 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Sales 933.0 977.6 972.5 1,090.2 1,031.7 1,049.0 1,083.9 1,194.4 3,973.4 4,359.0 4,773.9 5,112.1 - Media 278.6 323.1 309.7 350.5 332.5 361.9 362.6 411.1 1,261.9 1,468.1 1,710.6 1,881.6 - Commerce 285.6 300.0 276.2 331.4 290.9 307.5 291.6 341.1 1,193.3 1,231.0 1,355.9 1,518.6 - Film 61.1 46.1 56.5 61.5 80.0 36.0 76.5 77.3 225.2 269.7 275.8 275.8 - Music 47.4 47.1 66.3 69.8 56.2 66.5 59.7 71.2 230.7 253.6 266.3 279.6 - CJ Hello 260.3 261.2 263.8 276.9 272.1 277.2 293.6 293.6 1,062.3 1,136.5 1,165.3 1,156.5 COGS 516.1 539.9 566.7 638.6 625.6 639.0 668.3 748.2 2,261.3 2,681.0 2,909.8 3,081.4 SG&A expense 340.0 349.4 343.9 391.1 316.2 330.8 329.1 368.5 1,424.4 1,344.7 1,433.2 1,517.7 Op profit 76.9 88.3 61.9 60.5 89.9 79.2 86.5 77.7 287.6 333.3 431.0 513.1 - Media 20.1 24.0 9.2 8.6 24.6 29.2 26.0 26.6 61.8 106.3 172.4 238.5 - Commerce 35.9 45.6 30.7 39.5 42.3 33.9 34.3 44.2 151.6 154.8 173.4 194.2 - Film 0.9 -2.3 -3.3 -5.8 7.2 -3.9 3.5 -1.5 -10.4 5.3 12.6 12.6 - Music 2.4 2.0 6.8 0.6 2.7 4.2 5.5 1.2 11.8 13.6 14.9 14.9 - CJ Hello 17.6 19.1 18.5 17.6 13.1 15.7 17.3 7.2 72.9 53.4 57.7 52.9 Op margin (%) 8 9 6 6 9 8 8 7 7 8 9 10 - Media 7 7 3 2 7 8 7 6 5 7 10 13 - Commerce 13 15 11 12 15 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 - Film 1 -5 -6 -9 9 -11 5 -2 -5 2 5 5 - Music 5 4 10 1 5 6 9 2 5 5 6 5 - CJ Hello 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 2 7 5 5 5 Pre-tax profit 92.2 592.4 59.9 32.1 120.2 97.8 91.9 64.5 776.6 374.4 509.1 581.2 Pre-tax margin (%) 10 65 7 3 12 10 9 5 21 9 11 11 Net profit, CI 62.0 437.5 37.4 22.5 91.8 72.5 59.9 44.0 559.4 268.2 344.1 396.9 Net margin (%) 7 45 4 2 9 8 6 4 14 7 8 9 Growth (% YoY) Sales 10 8 7 4 11 7 11 10 7 10 10 7 Op profit 13 29 20 221 17 -10 40 28 39 16 29 19 Net profit 35 548 32 -140 48 -83 60 96 554 -52 28 15 Source: Yuanta Securities 2 Company Report Media earnings breakdown (Wbn) 2016 2017 2018 Full-year 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1QP 2QP 3QE 4QE 2017 2018E 2019E Media sales 225.4 268.4 268.6 366.1 285.7 332.1 317.2 359.1 340.4 361.9 362.6 411.1 1294.2 1468.1 1710.6 - Ad 109.6 132.2 111.1 135.3 108.3 128.8 117.4 141.2 119.7 141.9 128.0 155.3 495.7 544.9 572.1 - Subscription fee 47.2 47.0 46.6 56.0 48.9 49.3 51.2 54.3 50.1 50.1 51.2 54.3 203.8 205.8 205.8 - Other 68.6 89.1 110.8 174.8 128.5 154.0 148.6 163.6 170.6 169.8 183.3 201.5 594.6 717.4 932.6 Media sales (% YoY) 27 20 18 31 27 24 18 -2 19 12 17 17 15 16 17 - Ad 20 7 -5 0 -1 -3 6 4 11 10 9 10 2 10 5 - Subscription fee 0 0 -4 0 4 5 10 -3 2 2 0 0 4 1 0 - Other 74 68 79 95 87 73 34 -6 33 17 30 30 34 28 30 Media OP 5.1 20.5 8.7 12.1 20.1 24.0 9.2 8.6 24.6 29.2 26.0 26.6 61.8 106.3 172.4 Ad sales 109.6 132.3 111.1 135.3 108.3 128.8 117.4 141.2 119.7 141.9 128.0 155.3 495.7 544.9 572.1 - Premium package - - - - 62.2 72.2 59.0 60.3 74.0 84.0 - - 247.1 - - - Other - - - - 46.1 56.6 58.4 80.9 45.7 57.9 - - 248.6 - - - Premium package (% YoY) - - - - - - - - 19 16 - - 7 - - - Other (% YoY) - - - - - - - - -1 2 - - -3 - - Other sales 68.6 89.1 110.8 174.8 121.4 145.0 141.0 155.0 162.7 169.8 - - 594.6 - - - Content sales - - - - 63.1 53.7 55.3 60.3 77.4 53.9 - - 210.4 - - - Other - - - - 58.3 91.3 85.7 94.7 85.3 115.9 - - 384.2 - - - Content sales (% YoY) - - - - 145 30 15 -33 23 0 - - 16 - - - Other (% YoY) - - - - 53 100 44 17 46 27 - - 47 - - Source: Yuanta Securities 3 CJ ENM (035760 KS) CJ ENM: target price (based on sum-of-the-parts) Value Note (A) Value of former CJ O Shopping W1.75tn (B) + (C) (B) Value of CJOS parent operations W1.39tn Target P/E 11x parent net profit W126.0bn 2018E CJOS parent net profit W126.0bn Home shopping target P/E 11x (C) Value of stakes in CJOS subsidiaries W0.37tn Value of stake in CJ Hello and Samsung Life Insurance Value of stake in CJ Hello W0.29tn Stake 53.9% Enterprise value of CJ Hello W0.53tn Applied 25% discount to 6-mo average market cap of W705.3bn Value of stake in Samsung Life Insurance W0.08tn Stake 0.5% Enterprise value of Samsung Life Insurance W16.37tn Applied 25% discount to 6-mo average market cap of W21.8tn (D) Value of former CJ E&M W4.61tn (E) + (F) – (G) (E) Value of media business W1.53tn Target P/E 30x media NOPAT 2018E media OP W67.3bn 2018E consolidated OP of W125.2bn – Studio Dragon’s 2018E OP of W57.9bn 2018E media NOPAT W51.0bn Target P/E for media biz 30x (F) Value of stakes in key CJ E&M subsidiaries W3.53tn Value of stake in Studio Dragon and Netmarble Value of stake in Studio Dragon W1.45tn Stake 71.3% Enterprise value of Studio Dragon W2.04tn Applied 30% discount to Studio Dragon’s 1-mo avg market cap W2.72tn Value of stake in Netmarble W.07tn Stake 22.1% Enterprise value of Netmarble W9.38tn Applied 20% discount to Netmarble Games’ 1-mo avg market cap W12.51tn (G) Net debt W445.2bn 1Q18 consolidated net debt W315.2bn– (Studio Dragon’s net cash of W182.3bn x 71.3%) (H) Enterprise value of new CJ ENM W6.37tn (A) + (D) (I) Shares out of new entity 21.93mn CJOS 6.22mn – treasury share cancellation 190k + new shares 15.9mn Target price of new entity W291,000 (H) / (I) Source: Yuanta Securities 4 Company Report CJ ENM (035760 KS) pro forma financial statements (K-IFRS, consolidated) Statement of comprehensive income Statement of financial position FY ends Dec (Wbn) 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E FY ends Dec (Wbn) 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E Sales 2,209 2,260 3,428 4,774 5,112 Current assets 689 664 1,923 2,217 2,435 Cost of sales 1,000 988 1,976 2,910 3,081 Cash & cash equivalents 103 114 934 1,154 1,309 Gross profit 1,209 1,272 1,452 1,864 2,031 Accts rec & other 354 372 696 755 804 SG&A 1,030 1,047 1,183 1,433 1,518 Inventory 62 76 168 184 197 Operating profit 179 224 269 431 513 Non-current assets 2,065 2,138 1,426 1,456 1,613 EBITDA 446 469 1,251 532 598 Tangible
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