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Home , 2012 Kentucky Derby, Always Dreaming, Arkansas Derby, Circular Quay (horse), Classic Empire, Cloud Computing (horse)

STAKES BETTING GUIDE

CONTENTS

3 Betting Guide Overview

4 How to Read a Past Performance

5 Expert Picks

6 Top Contender Bios

7 Superfecta Payout

8 Three-Year-Old Debuts

9 Preakness Tipsheet

10 Alternative View or Alternative Universe?

PREAKNESS STAKES BETTING GUIDE DOWNLOAD THE TWINSPIRES APP & BET THE PREAKNESS SEEKS TO JOIN BIG CAST OF -PREAKNESS WINNERS by James Scully

LAST 40 KENTUCKY DERBY WINNERS PREAKNESS RESULTS

KY DERBY WINNER PREAKNESS ODDS RESULT 3-5 3rd 4-5 1st Chrome 1-2 1st 3-5 4th I’ll Have Another 3-1 1st 2-1 2nd 9-5 8th 6-1 2nd 1-5 1st 6-5 2nd 1-2 DNF 6-1 3rd 3-5 1st Always Dreaming put his speed to good use at , 9-5 1st posting a 2 ¾-length decision in the Kentucky Derby, and 5-2 1st supporters are confident he can stretch his win streak to five in the 142nd running of the $1.5 million . 2-1 6th 1-5 2nd History shows it’s very doable. In the last 40 years, Kentucky 8-1 1st Derby winners have won at a 40% clip in (15-for-37 5-2 1st with three missing the race). 3-1 1st Memories of Nyquist, who had his Triple Crown hopes dashed Non-starter - when weakening to third as the 3-5 favorite in the 2016 Thunder 7-2 3rd Preakness Stakes, may still be fresh for fans but 5-2 2nd the two previous Kentucky Derby victors, American Pharoah and , easily captured the second leg of the 4-1 5th American Triple Crown. Lil E. Tee 4-1 5th 9-5 6th When you add in scorer I’ll Have Another, 8-5 2nd three of the last five have held suit following the two-week turnaround. From 1997-2004, six-of-eight horses completed the 2-1 1st Kentucky Derby-Preakness double. 9-5 3rd 3-5 4th And six of the last seven Kentucky Derby winners who failed 3-1 2nd in the Preakness -- Orb (2013), Animal Kingdom (2011), Super Saver (2010), Mine That Bird (2009), Street Sense (2007) and Non-starter - Giacomo (2005) – were off-the-pace types. Always Dreaming’s 4-5 7th front-running style rates as an advantage. Sunny’s 1-1 6th Non-starter - He’s a threat to lead wire-to-wire and tractable enough to sit just off a hot pace if necessary. 3-2 1st Risk 2-1 2nd Always Dreaming must still get past the competition including 1-9 1st troubled-trip , the 2-year-old champion and 1-2 1st Kentucky Derby morning line favorite, but the Kentucky Derby winner remains eligible to deliver his best at Pimlico. 2-5 1st

PREAKNESS STAKES BETTING GUIDE DOWNLOAD THE TWINSPIRES APP & BET THE PREAKNESS HOW TO READ A PAST PERFORMANCE

TWINSPIRES CUSTOMERS GET FREE BRISNET PPs FOR TRACKS THEY WAGER ON The Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs are the most detailed past performance product on the market and include speed ratings, pace figures, exclusive Prime Power and Class ratings, detailed and trainer statistics, and pedigree information. Start using Ultimate PPs and discover why Brisnet.com is the handicapper’s edge.

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1 BRIS Pace and Speed Pars 14 Positive and Negative Comments 2 Jockey Stats 15 Date of Race, Track, and Race Number 3 Trainer Stats 16 Surface, Distance, and Track Conditions 4 Dam Stats 17 Fractional Times of Leader, Final Time, and Age Designation 5 Sire Stats 18 BRIS Race Rating and Class Rating 6 Sales Stats 19 Race Type 7 Horse’s Pedigree, Sales & Breeding Information 20 BRIS Pace and Speed Ratings 8 BRIS Prime Power Rating 21 Post Position, Placement Throughout Race, and Finish 9 Run Style Stats 22 Jockey and Weight

10 BRIS Pedigree Rating 23 Medication, Equipment, and Odds 11 Medication, Equipment, and Weight the Horse Will Carry 24 Top Finishers, Comment, and Number of Starters 12 Horse’s Lifetime Start Information 25 Workouts 13 Owner & Jockey Silks 26 BRIS Race Shapes

PREAKNESS STAKES BETTING GUIDE DOWNLOAD THE TWINSPIRES APP & BET THE PREAKNESS EXPERT PICKS FOR PREAKNESS STAKES WEEKEND

We’ve assembled an expert team of handicappers to give their top picks for each for both Black-eyed Susan and Preakness days.

FRIDAY, MAY 19

Ed DeRosa Vance Hanson Nicolle Neulist Kellie Reilly James Scully @EJXD2 @VPHanson @RogueClown @GallantFox1930 @James_Scully111

PIMLICO SPECIAL (G3) 6 Shaman Ghost 6 Shaman Ghost 6 Shaman Ghost 6 Shaman Ghost 3 Watershed 1 Dolphus 3 Watershed 5 Noble Bird 9 Conquest Windycity 6 Shaman Ghost 9 Conquest Windycity 1 Dolphus 1 Dolphus 7 Name Changer 7 Name Changer

JIM MCKAY TURF SPRINT 4 Pay Any Price 2 Amelia’s Wild Ride 6 Take Cover 6 Take Cover 10 Richard’s Boy 10 Richard’s Boy 10 Richard’s Boy 8 Uncle Youdge 10 Richard’s Boy 7 Grand Candy 7 Grand Candy 4 Pay Any Price 10 Richard’s Boy 5 Ben’s Cat 5 Ben’s Cat

BLACK-EYED SUSAN (G2) 1 Shimmering Aspen 6 Corporate Queen 5 Lights Of Medina 1 Shimmering Aspen 5 Lights Of Medina 5 Lights Of Medina 8 Torrent 3 Dancing Rags 4 Full House 7 Moana 7 Moana 9 Summer Luck 7 Moana 9 Summer Luck 10 Actress

SATURDAY, MAY 20 Pimlico Race Course

Ed DeRosa Vance Hanson Nicolle Neulist Kellie Reilly James Scully @EJXD2 @VPHanson @RogueClown @GallantFox1930 @James_Scully111

GALLORETTE STAKES (G3) 10 Cambodia 2 Zipessa 6 On Leave 6 On Leave 3 Danilova 7 Elysea’s World 7 Elysea’s World 7 Elysea’s World 7 Elysea’s World 6 On Leave 6 On Leave 6 On Leave 2 Zipessa 2 Zipessa 5 Gone Away

SIR BARTON STAKES 2 Hedge Fund 2 Hedge Fund 5 No Mo Dough 6 Watch Me Whip 2 Hedge Fund 5 No Mo Dough 9 Time To Travel 2 Hedge Fund 2 Hedge Fund 6 Watch Me Whip 6 Watch Me Whip 6 Watch Me Whip 9 Time To Travel 5 No Mo Dough 5 No Mo Dough

THE LONGINES DIXIE 2 World Approval 4 Projected 4 Projected 2 World Approval 4 Projected STAKES (G2) 9 Conquest Typhoon 2 World Approval 9 Ring Weekend 9 Ring Weekend 2 World Approval 7 Blacktype 8 Catapult 7 Blacktype 4 Projected 7 Blacktype

PREAKNESS STAKES (G1) 5 Classic Empire 5 Classic Empire 10 Conquest Mo Money 5 Classic Empire 4 Always Dreaming 6 4 Always Dreaming 4 Always Dreaming 4 Always Dreaming 3 Hence 1 Multiplier 1 Multiplier 5 Classic Empire 3 Hence 5 Classic Empire

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ALWAYS DREAMING Owner: Brooklyn Boyz Stables Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher Jockey: John R. Velazquez

Unbeaten at three, the -trained son of lived up to the potential he showed in the with a superb Kentucky Derby victory. Always Dreaming has early speed and a great turn of foot that he unleashed at the top of the stretch to take him to Derby victory. That combination usually works well in the Preakness Stakes as well. Is he good enough to keep the Triple Crown alive? Many think he is.

CLASSIC EMPIRE Owner: John C. Oxley Trainer: Mark E. Casse Jockey: Julien R. Leparoux

Last season’s champion 2-year-old male has had a difficult sophomore season, punctured with injuries and training difficulties. Some hard work and clever thinking from trainer Mark Casse got him back on track and he bounced back to win the , but his troubles continued in the Kentucky Derby when he was badly bumped at the start. His effort to finish fourth that day was an extremely worthy one. The big question is what he’s capable of if he gets a clean run.

CONQUEST MO MONEY Owner: Judge Lanier Racing Trainer: Miguel Hernandez Jockey: Jorge Carreno

The most interesting Preakness runner that didn’t contest the Kentucky Derby is arguably this $8,500 yearling from New Mexico. After winning his first three starts, Conquest Mo Money ran second in the before putting up a fantastic effort from on the speed in the Arkansas Derby, beating all but Classic Empire, relegating Derby runner-up Lookin At Lee to third. Not nominated for the Triple Crown, his connections have put up $150,000 to run here. He may well be good enough to earn it back.

LOOKIN AT LEE Owner: L and N Racing, LLC Trainer: Steve M. Asmussen Jockey: Corey J. Lanerie

Fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, second in the Kentucky Derby: Lookin At Lee knows how to perform on racing’s biggest stages. The -trained son of made up many lengths along the rail in the Derby and was the only horse within seven lengths of Always Dreaming at the finish. The shorter distance of the Preakness may not suit him, but he should be making up ground when the others are tiring.

HENCE Owner: Trainer: Steve M. Asmussen Jockey:

Hence was favored by some for the Kentucky Derby after his Sunland Derby win was made to look very good by the efforts of those he beat: runner-up Conquest Mo Money finished second in the Arkansas Derby, third-place finisher Hedge Fund was runner-up in the , and fourth- place finisher Irap won the . He finished 10th but reportedly didn’t enjoy the wet conditions. With a dry track, he could be more than just a second string for Steve Asmussen.

PREAKNESS STAKES BETTING GUIDE DOWNLOAD THE TWINSPIRES APP & BET THE PREAKNESS PLETCHER & THE PREAKNESS: NO WINS BUT DOES IT MATTER? by Ed DeRosa

Even after winning the Kentucky Derby with Super Saver in So does Always Dreaming fit? Of course. Does he fit at even 2011, trainer Todd Pletcher faced criticism that he couldn’t win money? That’s a trickier question. the Kentucky Derby. The only other time Pletcher had the Derby winner at the The certain future Racing Hall of Fame conditioner brought Preakness—Super Saver in 2010—he ran against champion a 1-for-45 mark into this year’s Run for the Roses, and hit two-year-old male Lookin At Lucky, who was the beaten paydirt, running his record to 2-for-48 following Always favorite in the Derby potentially hampered by his rail post Dreaming’s victory in America’s most prestigious race (his position. It’s a familiar storyline to Classic Empire, the Breeders’ other two runners— and Patch—finished 6th and 14th, Cup Juvenile winner, who had an eventful Derby trip, knocked respectively). around at the start before having to race wide. Always Dreaming was best on Derby day, but a fast track at Pimlico Pletcher has yet to win the Preakness Stakes, but he does Race Course and suspected cleaner trip might be a reason to not have a reputation for futility in the second jewel of U.S. take double or triple the price on Classic Empire. ’s Triple Crown in part because he has started so few horses. Pletcher’s 48 Derby starters have come The above has nothing to do with the trainer, of course, which in 17 editions of the race with 2003 the only year he’s missed is why Pletcher’s statistics in these races is more a talking point since saddling four starters in 2000. than a handicapping angle.

Pletcher’s 8 Preakness starters, however, have come in that same 18-year period but only occurred in six editions of the race, and only Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver was favored. In fact, before this year, Super Saver was the only one of Pletcher’s 75 starters in a Triple Crown race to go favored.

Pletcher will certainly have the Preakness favorite this year, as winning Kentucky Derby favorite Always Dreaming will again be the public’s choice, but is he a good bet?

From the perspective of the trainer, forget his record in these types of races. Sure, 0-for-8 in the Preakness and 4-for-78 in Triple Crown races sounds lousy, but this is unquestionably one of the best trainers currently in the game and maybe of all time. Handicapping Pletcher’s chances in this race needs to be more about the horse than the trainer. If Pletcher has the horse, then he has a chance to win. That is, not every one of his 78 Triple Crown starters (and especially not every one of his 48 Derby starters) were in the best spot to win, but these are the races owners want to run in.

TODD PLETCHER’S PREAKNESS STARTERS

YEAR NAME ODDS-1 FINISH PREVIOUS START 2016 Stradivari 8.00 4th Stakes (1st) 2011 Dance City 11.50 5th Arkansas Derby (3rd) 2010 Super Saver 1.90 8th Kentucky Derby (1st) 2010 Aikenite 30.00 10th Derby Trial (2nd) 2009 Take the Points 18.00 13th (4th) 2007 6.00 5th Kentucky Derby (6th) 2007 King of the Roxy 14.20 6th Santa Anita Derby (2nd) 2000 Impeachment 19.10 3rd Kentucky Derby (3rd)

PREAKNESS STAKES BETTING GUIDE DOWNLOAD THE TWINSPIRES APP & BET THE PREAKNESS NEW SHOOTERS FOR PREAKNESS by Vance Hanson

In the days immediately after the Kentucky Derby (G1), The other projected “new shooters” arguably have form to speculation quickly turns to which Derby starters will be joining find. Senior Investment rebounded nicely to win the Lexington the winner of the roses two weeks later in the Preakness (G1) (G3) last time, but was a non-factor two back in the TwinSpires. at Pimlico. Also of interest are which “new shooters,” or horses com (G2), the form of which was not flattered that did not run in the Kentucky Derby, will contest the 1 3/16- in the Kentucky Derby. Conquest Mo Money, who suffered mile classic in Baltimore. his first career defeat in the Sunland Derby (G3) to Hence, is expected to be a prominent pace player, but with Always The so-called “new shooters” have a low level of success Dreaming likely to be within close range there’s a question of reaching the Preakness winner’s circle – only seven in the last how long he’ll last while stepping up in trip. Term of Art was 50 years have won – but they’ve often enhanced the value of well beaten in all of Santa Anita’s classic preps, would be a Exactas, Trifectas, and Superfectas. The odds might be against major shock for trainer Doug O’Neill, who won the Preakness this year’s group knocking off Always Dreaming, Classic Empire, with Derby winner I’ll Have Another in 2012. and the like, but several should be given a close look by vertical exotics players. NEW SHOOTERS FOR PREAKNESS After the unfortunate defection of Royal Mo last weekend after suffering a fractured sesamoid during a workout at HORSE TRAINER Pimlico, the list of “new shooters” for the Preakness stood Chad Brown at five. Multiplier might possess a pedigree more worthy of Conquest Mo Money Brendan Walsh a sprinter (he’s by The Factor and out of Trippi ), but his Multiplier Miguel Hernandez performance in last month’s 1 1/8-mile Illinois Derby (G3) at Hawthorne suggested he was just getting warmed up at that Senior Investment Kenny McPeek distance. He also earned an imposing 104 Brisnet Speed Rating Term of Art Doug O’Neill for that win. Cloud Computing, meanwhile, will be making only his fourth career start in the Preakness. The Chad Brown trainee has plenty of upside having finished second in the Gotham (G3) and a distant third in the Wood Memorial (G2) following his debut win in mid-February.

Conquest Mo Money in the 2017 Sunland Derby

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142ND RUNNING OF THE PREAKNESS STAKES The Preakness Stakes (Gr 1) 1 3/16-Miles PURSE $1,500,000

POST HORSE ML ODDS TOP PICKS

5 Classic Empire 1 Multiplier 30-1 4 Always Dreaming 2 Cloud Computing 12-1 1 Multiplier 3 Hence 20-1 $5 EXACTAS Always Dreaming 4-5 4 4 over 1,2,9,10 ($20) 5 Classic Empire 3-1 $25 EXACTAS Gunnevera 15-1 6 5 over 4 ($25) 7 Term Of Art 30-1 $2 TRIFECTA PART-WHEEL Senior Investment 30-1 8 5 over 4 over 1,2,9,10 ($8) 9 Looking At Lee 10-1 4 over 1,2,9,10 over 5 ($8)

10 Conquest Mo Money 15-1 $.50 SUPERFECTA PART-WHEEL 4,5 over 1,2,4,5,9,10 over 1,2,5,9,10 over 1,2,9,10 ($42)

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Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming was installed the 4-5 morning line favorite for the Preakness, which seems about right given the likelihood he will work out a trip as smooth at Pimlico as he had two weeks ago at Churchill Downs. If you like him to repeat, and you don’t necessarily like Classic Empire to finish second, then whatever exacta and trifecta combination you play is likely to pay well even with an odds-on favorite on top.

On the other hand, conceding the Preakness to a heavy favorite who enjoyed a dream trip in the Derby isn’t always the best bet. Street Sense, in 2007, is a notable example. Classic Empire arguably ran the best race of any Derby also-ran, finishing fourth after getting side-swiped at the start and rallying wide on the worst part of the track in the final half-mile. The reigning juvenile champion had physical issues earlier in the year that complicated his journey to Louisville, but seems to be over them. With a fair trip, he has the talent to make 3-1 look like a bargain.

We’ll make our primary bets with Classic Empire on top and saver ones with Always Dreaming in the first slot. We’ll include Derby runner-up Lookin at Lee, who also enjoyed a favorable trip at Churchill, in our vertical exotics along with “new shooters” Multiplier, Cloud Computing, and Conquest Mo Money.

PREAKNESS STAKES BETTING GUIDE DOWNLOAD THE TWINSPIRES APP & BET THE PREAKNESS ALTERNATIVE VIEW OR ALTERNATIVE UNIVERSE? by Glen Atkinson

NEW SHOOTERS FOR PREAKNESS MAKING A CASE FOR ALWAYS DREAMING OR CLASSIC EMPIRE OUT OF THE SUPERFECTA

In the aftermath of the Kentucky Derby So, if Classic Empire were the winner there is legitimate speculation that then the place horse could well be Always Dreaming is a potential candidate other than Always Dreaming (and for to achieve the Triple Crown. Proponents wagering purposes, the vice versa of that point to his ability to make his own race could offer value as well—i.e. if Always shape, his continued high energy levels, Dreaming wins then Classic Empire might and forwardly placed Kentucky Derby not complete the exacta). winners tend to win the Preakness. The Preakness has a long history of off If he accomplishes this difficult task there the pace longshots hitting the superfecta would be plenty of markers along the over the past fifteen years, some with way that would make you think that it low speed figures, either placing like was obvious all along. 46-1, 40-1, Tale Of Verve 28-1, Cherry Wine 17-1, or However, it does not take a very long many times filling out the lower rungs. memory to recall that there are often similar projections for other Derby Multiplier, a lightly raced closer, recorded winners—like Nyquist last year or Orb in a Brisnet.com Speed Rating of 104, 2013. Then after the Preakness loss the improving 11 points in the Illinois Derby hype of Derby winners is soon relegated and higher than any number Always to a smaller place in history. Media Dreaming has earned. Senior Investment, groupthink can change overnight. a low speed figure closer from big-race trainer McPeek is improving. You could \Always Dreaming’s Preakness odds will fill in any of the other closers that you likely hover around even money, and I fancy among Lookin At Lee, Hence, have reasons to propose an alternative Gunnevera, Cloud Computing, or reach outcome of the race. for the stars with Term of Art.

Classic Empire’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile For the exotics I’m going to single Brisnet.com Speed Rating was 108, a lot Classic Empire/Multiplier, Senior higher than Always Dreaming’s Florida Investment, Gunnevera, Hence, Lookin Derby best of 102 and his 100 in the At Lee/Always Dreaming. Derby. The only other recent Derby winners as low as 100 was American An Alternate Universe indeed. Pharoah in 2015 and Giacomo in 2005. The former went on to win the Triple Crown, the latter finished third in the – Glen Atkinson is a horseplayer based Preakness behind and in Bowling Green, Kentucky, who counts . Brisnet.com’s ALLWAYS software among his I’m going to hang my hat on the notion handicapping arsenal. Follow him on Twitter @ that had he not been nearly knocked off GlennedUp his feet at the start, Classic Empire would have beaten Always Dreaming in the Kentucky Derby.

Both Classic Empire and Always Dreaming like to be forwardly placed close up or on the lead. However, in 14 of the last 15 Preakness Stakes one of the exacta horses has been an off the pace type.

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