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Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of Northern Australian Catchments and Biodiversity

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Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of Northern Australian Catchments and Biodiversity Vulnerability and risk assessment of northern Australian catchments and biodiversity Paul Close, Renee Bartolo, Neil Pettit, Doug Ward & Mark Kennard Citation Close, P., Bartolo, R., Pettit, N. & Ward, D. & Kennard, M. (2015). Vulnerability and risk assessment of northern Australian catchments and biodiversity. Climate Change Adaptation across Australia’s Monsoonal North – Northern Monsoon NRM Cluster, Griffith University, Nathan. Copyright © 2015. Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University; University of Western Australia; Supervising Scientist, Department of the Environment Disclaimer The view expressed herein are not necessarily the views of the Commonwealth of Australia, and the Commonwealth does not accept responsibility for any information or advice contained herein. Contents 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................ 3 2. A Synthesis of current knowledge ............................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Regional characteristics ............................................................................................................................................... 5 2.2 Climate and development impacts on hydrology ....................................................................................................... 6 2.3 Aquatic habitats in an ephemeral landscape .............................................................................................................. 6 2.4 River floods and wetland connectivity ........................................................................................................................ 7 2.5 Important biological and ecological thresholds. ......................................................................................................... 7 2.5.1 Habitat Connectivity ........................................................................................................................................... 7 2.5.2 Water Temperature ............................................................................................................................................ 7 2.5.3 Ecosystem productivity ....................................................................................................................................... 7 2.5.4 Hydrological regimes .......................................................................................................................................... 8 2.5.5 Invasive plant species ......................................................................................................................................... 8 2.6 Key Hydro‐ecological linkages ..................................................................................................................................... 8 2.6.1 Dry season .......................................................................................................................................................... 8 2.6.2 Dry‐wet season transition ................................................................................................................................... 8 2.6.3 Wet season ......................................................................................................................................................... 9 2.6.4 Wet‐dry season transition .................................................................................................................................. 9 2.6.5 Any season .......................................................................................................................................................... 9 3. A Synthesis of current knowledge ............................................................................................................................. 10 4. Interpreting the geospatial database ........................................................................................................................ 14 References .................................................................................................................................................................... 16 List of Figures Figure 1. Methodology for developing relative risk models .......................................................................................... 10 Figure 2. Conceptual model describing ecological risks for northern Australia. ............................................................ 12 Figure 3. The sixty two (62) risk regions identified for northern Australia. ................................................................... 13 Figure 4. Example output from the geodatabase containing spatially explicit maps of relative risks and vulnerabilities (based on semi‐quantitative RRMs). ...................................................................................................... 14 Figure 5. Relative risk to ecological assessment endpoints across the 62 risk regions of northern Australia. A‐ maintenance of flow regime; B‐ water quality; C‐ maintenance of riparian vegetation; and D‐ maintenance of biodiversity. ......................................................................................................................................... 15 Vulnerability and risk assessment of northern Australian catchments and biodiversity 2 1. Introduction Northern Australia hosts a range of high value Australia (Close et al., 2012). The geographical area estuaries, rivers, lakes and wetlands. These ecosystems considered by the project included three drainage have intrinsic and cultural value, and provide clean divisions (Timor Sea, Gulf of Carpentaria and the part of water, food and recreational activities for people. They the North‐east Coast Drainage Division, north of Cairns) also support high biodiversity and many species of and 64 river basins. This project synthesised knowledge plants and animals that are found nowhere else. It is on: i) ecology and hydrology; ii) human impacts and important that these valuable assets be sustainably their relationship to future development and climate managed and protected so that they provide ongoing change risks; iii) ecological water requirements, value to both human activities and ecological ecosystem function and habitat use by key biota, and; requirements. Climate related changes in rainfall, run iv) relationships between ecological, social and cultural off and sea level, together with future development, values. It also recommended management strategies particularly the expansion of agricultural, urban and and monitoring frameworks to report on environmental industrial land use, represent significant risks to these change and identified specific knowledge needs and high‐value ecosystems (Pusey and Kennard, 2009; Close future investment priorities. The project provided et al., 2012). Associated risks are likely to include; water planners and managers with additional increased variability and severity of floods and information on the possible impacts of future droughts; increased water temperatures; seawater development and climate change scenarios on aquatic intrusion into lowland freshwater wetlands, and; ecosystems in northern Australia that could be utilised increased fragmentation of aquatic habitats (Pusey and in decision making for water management. Kennard, 2009). This project, Climate Change Adaptation across In recent years, aquatic ecosystems across northern Australia’s Monsoonal North delivers improved Australia have been the focus of substantial research knowledge, tools and management options to regional and monitoring leading to a more comprehensive NRM organisations in the Monsoonal North Cluster understanding of biodiversity values, ecological and enabling them to better adapt to the challenges posed socio‐cultural assets and integrated knowledge of how by a changing climate. It focuses on both direct impacts tropical aquatic ecosystems function at a variety of such as increased temperature and sea level rise, and scales, ranging from the entire landscape to individual indirect impacts such as changes in pest species wetlands, and river pools. This has been made possible distribution, altered fire regimes and habitat loss. The through programs such as the Commonwealth Project will deliver tailored maps, spatial datasets, Environmental Research Facility, National modelling and scenario evaluation tools that meet the Environmental Research Program, Northern Australia specific requirements of individual NRM organisations. Water Futures Assessment and now the Natural Resource Management Climate Change Impacts and Consultations on priority issues and projects culminated Adaptation Research Program. With few exceptions, in a workshop held in Darwin in July 2013, at which these programs included geographic scopes stretching series of potential projects to address the priority issues more than 3,000 km, from Broome in the west to Cairns identified by NRM planners were identified. Nine in the east, including three drainage divisions: Timor projects were selected to address NRM priorities across Sea; Gulf of Carpentaria and North‐East Coast, north of the north monsoonal regions: Cairns and three management jurisdiction (WA, NT and QLD). Project 1 – Climatic Knowledge Synthesis Project 2 – Indigenous knowledge of climate change to In 2012, knowledge of northern Australia’s aquatic improve adaptation planning
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