Report No.41181-AM Report No.Armenia andInequality DistributionofPoverty Geographic 41181-AM Armenia Geographic Distribution of Poverty and Inequality Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized June 2007 Human Development Sector Unit Europe and Central Asia Region Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized National Statistical Service Yerevan, Armenia Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized Document of the World Bank Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized Vice President: Shigeo Katsu Country Director: Donna Dowsett-Coirolo Sector Director Tamar Manuelyan Atinc Country Manager Aristomene Varoudakis Sector Manager: Arup Banerji Task Team Leader: Lire Ersado Report No. 41181-AM ARMENIA Geographic Distribution of Poverty and Inequality June 2007 Human Development Sector Unit National Statistical Service Europe and Central Asia Region Yerevan, Armenia Vice President: Shigeo Katsu Country Director: Donna Dowsett-Coirolo Sector Director Tamar Manuelyan Atinc Country Manager Aristomene Varoudakis Sector Manager: Arup Banerji Task Team Leader: Lire Ersado CONTENTS Page Acknowledgement...................................................................................................................................i I. Introduction......................................................................................................................................1 Background......................................................................................................................................1 Objectives and Target Audience......................................................................................................4 II. Data Sources and Methodology.......................................................................................................6 Data..................................................................................................................................................6 Administrative Regions of Armenia ................................................................................................6 Methodology....................................................................................................................................7 Regression Domains ........................................................................................................................7 III. Geographic Distribution of Poverty.................................................................................................9 Measures of Poverty and Inequality ................................................................................................9 Robustness of the Results ................................................................................................................9 Verifications at the Community Level...........................................................................................10 Comparing Poverty Estimates from Survey and Poverty Mapping...............................................11 Distribution of Welfare across Marzs ............................................................................................13 Urban and Rural Dimensions of Poverty .......................................................................................14 Poverty at the Rayon Level............................................................................................................15 Rural Poverty at the Rayon Level ..................................................................................................16 Urban Poverty at the Rayon Level .................................................................................................17 Poverty among Yerevan Communities ..........................................................................................18 Poverty Incidence and Absolute Number of Poor .........................................................................19 Inequality in Armenia ....................................................................................................................21 IV. Maps of Poverty and Its Correlates................................................................................................23 Poverty and Accessibility ..............................................................................................................23 Poverty and Landownership ..........................................................................................................24 Poverty and Elevation....................................................................................................................25 Livestock Population and Poverty .................................................................................................27 Poverty and Education ...................................................................................................................28 V. Capacity Building ..........................................................................................................................29 VI. Use and Limitations of the Poverty Mapping ................................................................................30 VI. Summary and Conclusions ............................................................................................................31 Reference..............................................................................................................................................32 Annex A: Poverty Mapping Methodology ...........................................................................................33 Annex B: Survey, Population Census and Ancillary Variables ...........................................................38 Annex C: Poverty and Inequality in Marzs and Rayons of Armenia ...................................................46 Annex D: Ranking of Rayons by Poverty ............................................................................................50 Figures Figure 1: Poverty mapping predictions lie within 95% confidence intervals of the 2004 ILCS poverty headcount .............................................................................................................................................12 Figure 2: Spatial disparities in poverty in Armenia are large .............................................................13 Figure 3: Pockets of high poverty rates are widespread in Armenia ..................................................15 Figure 4: Poverty among Rural Rayons ..............................................................................................17 Figure 5: Poverty among urban communities within marz ................................................................18 Figure 6: Estimate of poverty rates among Yerevan districts .............................................................19 Figure 7: Areas of high poverty rates are not necessarily areas of high concentration of poor .........20 Figure 8: Density of poor population in Yerevan ...............................................................................21 Figure 9: Yerevan and Lori exhibit higher rate of inequality than the rest of the marzs ....................22 Figure 10: Proximity to marz center is generally associated with low poverty ..................................24 Figure 11: Availability of irrigable land is generally associated with low poverty ............................25 Figure 12: High elevation areas appear poorer than the rest ..............................................................26 Figure 13: Longer summer duration is correlated with lower poverty incidence ...............................26 Figure 14: Livestock sector contributes to poverty alleviations .........................................................27 Figure 15: Rayons with higher percentage of its population with higher education enjoy better living standard ...............................................................................................................................................28 Tables Table 1: Armenia has achieved impressive reduction in poverty between 1998/99 and 2005............. 1 Table 2: There are important geographic disparities in living standards ..............................................3 Table 3: The sample structure of the 2004 ILCS data and regression domains ...................................8 Table 4: Unobserved location effects are significantly small. ..............................................................9 Table 5: Urban-rural differentials in poverty are substantial. .............................................................14 Table 6: Number of rayons with higher than the national rate of poverty .........................................16 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This report is part of the Armenia Programmatic Poverty Assessment work. It is jointly produced by the National Statistics Service (NSS) of the Republic of Armenia and the World Bank. This joint product between the NSS and the World Bank follows the long tradition of good cooperation between the Government of Armenia and the World Bank to better understand poverty and living conditions of the people of Armenia. The work could not have been possible without the strong support of the President of the NSS, Mr. Stepan Mnatsakanyan. Other key members of the team from the NSS side included Ms. Diana Martirosova (Head, Household Survey Division), Ms. Karine Kuyumjyan (Head, Population Census and Demography Division), Laert Harutiunyan (Head of Division, Information Technology