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The New Zealand Gas Story

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The New Zealand Gas Story THE NEW ZEALAND GAS STORY THE STATE AND PERFORMANCE OF THE NEW ZEALAND GAS INDUSTRY Fourth Edition – updated May 2016 FRONT COVER: Nova Energy’s 100 megawatt, gas-fired McKee Power Plant in Taranaki. Opened in 2013, the plant is the latest in an increasing trend away from gas use in baseload electricity generation and towards efficient, modern-technology peaker plants that can respond quickly to changes in electricity demand. With a start-up time of 15 minutes, the Nova plant is designed primarily as a peaker plant, but has the flexibility to operate in either peaking or baseload mode. Image courtesy of Nova Energy Message from the Chief Executive Gas Industry Co is pleased to publish this fourth edition of the New Zealand Gas Story. This includes developments in the policy, regulatory and operational framework of the industry since the previous edition was published in March 2015. The New Zealand gas industry has been characterised by marked change over time. This continues to be so. In the past year, we have seen the impacts of the global downturn in oil prices on upstream exploration and development investment in New Zealand, corporate announcements that will considerably alter gas use patterns, a sharpening focus on the role of fossil fuels in a carbon-challenged world, and the entry of a new participant as a substantial transmission and distribution pipeline owner. What remains a constant, however, is the role of gas as an essential component of New Zealand’s current energy supply. It continues to underpin electricity supply security, increasingly through a new generation of modern-technology ‘peaker’ power plants, and is the primary energy for some of New Zealand’s largest industries, including key exporters, for whom gas is effectively the only competitive energy option for their New Zealand operations. Gas is also a fuel of choice for over 260,000 residential and smaller business consumers. Significant developments during the year have included: Demand-side contraction with the retirements of the Otahuhu B and Southdown power stations in Auckland. These retirements account for up to 20 petajoules (PJ) of annual demand, although there is potential offsetting in the generation market, including redirection of load to existing gas-fired plants, and from the possible construction of new gas-fired electricity peaker plants. The overall effect on the broader electricity supply is further counterbalanced by a decision by Genesis Energy to defer the retirement of the Huntly Rankine units from late 2018 to late 2022. Petrochemical production has cemented its place as the predominant demand source, accounting for almost 50 percent of gas use. At the same time there has been some modest growth in the retail gas market after a period of flat demand. A significant new gas discovery continues to be elusive, so the focus remains on upside from existing fields. The global oil price collapse and an associated downturn in exploration and development activity follows closely the end of an intensive exploration effort in the previous two years. New Zealand nonetheless remains an attractive destination for upstream investors through the Government’s block offers regime. Reported gas reserves declined in 2014 following an increase in 2013, although more recently members of the Kupe joint venture have announced that Kupe reserves are more than a third higher than previously thought. The supply horizon remains reasonably comfortable, and figures on ‘contingent’ resources signal significant further potential. The purchase of Vector’s transmission system and non-Auckland distribution networks by Australia- based Colonial First State Asset Management in April 2016. This acquisition was effected through Colonial First State’s purchase of the Vector subsidiary, Vector Gas Limited, which has been renamed First Gas Limited (FGL). For the present, First Gas is continuing the pricing and access arrangements of Vector. Colonial First State has also entered into a conditional agreement to buy the Maui transmission pipeline from Maui Development Limited (MDL). This is still subject to regulatory approval, but should this transaction proceed the two pipelines will be under single ownership for the first time, with potential efficiency benefits for the industry. i Downstream, gas customer numbers continue to grow while more retailers have joined the market, strengthening competition and expanding consumer choice. At a wholesale level, the emsTradepoint market established in 2013 has provided a new platform for transmission balancing transactions since the introduction of a market-based balancing regime in October 2015, as well as generally facilitating short-term gas trading over the last 2 years. In another sign of the maturing of this market, a gas futures platform has been established in a joint initiative by emsTradepoint and the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). With the retirement of the baseload gas-fired electricity generation plants in Auckland, gas infrastructure is expected to carry the industry forward in the foreseeable future, pending any future step change in the form of a major new discovery or a substantial new demand source. Although this means an easing of risks around transmission capacity constraints that arose in 2009, efficiency improvements to transmission capacity access and pricing arrangements remain a priority focus area for the industry. Overall, this Report continues to portray an industry that is in generally good health and on track in terms of consumer needs and Government policy objectives for the sector. The New Zealand Gas Story is informed by Gas Industry Co’s strategy of ‘optimising the contribution of gas to New Zealand’, both in terms of a legacy of assets and investment, and the potential from a global resurgence in gas extraction and use. Internationally, gas is being looked at in a new way, both to help address climate issues and drive economic growth in leading economies. These developments are not without controversy, with concerns about issues such as ‘fracking’ and environmental sustainability still being addressed. With 80 percent of its electricity generation already coming from renewable sources, New Zealand does not have the same opportunities as other countries for using gas as a transition fuel to displace more harmful fossil fuels. Nonetheless, gas is still seen as having an important role supporting wind generation and peak loads, and increasingly where new applications are enabling individual users to consider bypassing traditional electricity networks. International oil trading is highly cyclical and the current dampening of upstream investment from the oil price drop is not expected to be permanent. New Zealand remains a focus for explorers and, while exploration success remains a goal, it is important for the industry to consider commercialisation options for future discoveries. The options necessarily involve the potential for gas exports and, if that were to happen, how the domestic market would respond if gas pricing were to trend towards export parity. New Zealand’s gas story has some unique features and challenges – not the least being that, apart from some importing and exporting of LPG, it is an isolated natural gas market unconnected to international trade via LNG or cross-border pipelines. And, with the currently good supply of gas from conventional sources, New Zealand has barely scratched the surface of the development of ‘unconventional gas’, which is the focus of much new overseas development. From a governance perspective, a solid platform of fit-for-purpose arrangements tailored to the particular characteristics New Zealand industry has been put in place following the introduction of a co- regulatory regime for the downstream gas sector in 2004. Remaining downstream issues are being proactively addressed. ii The New Zealand gas governance landscape does not have some of the more formal arrangements commonly found in overseas jurisdictions. This is appropriate given the industry’s small size and the way it has developed over many years. However, the industry must also respond to the demands of modern consumers and investors and there is still some work to be done, especially to reflect best practice in aspects of gas transportation and trading. Steve Bielby Chief Executive Gas Industry Company iii About the New Zealand Gas Story The New Zealand Gas Story was first published in February 2013. It has two purposes - one legislative; the other market-based. As the ‘industry body’ under Part 4A of the Gas Act 1992, Gas Industry Co is required to report to the Minister1 on the state and performance of the gas industry. In the past, Gas Industry Co and the Government have issued occasional substantive reviews by external consultants2. In the era of websites and e-communication, Gas Industry Co publishes regular updates on market performance3. With The New Zealand Gas Story, we have developed a web-based report, which can be readily updated and added to over time. This is useful for keeping abreast of an industry that is constantly evolving, and where disclosure requirements introduced in 2013 sees staged releases of information over the course of a year. The second, market-based driver for this Report was a request from industry participants for Gas Industry Co to ‘stitch together’ the full story of gas in New Zealand, to assist knowledge and understanding of gas and its role in the New Zealand economy and society. This has become a formal part of Gas Industry Co’s strategy. The industry is complex and multi-faceted, from the time in which investors enter the upstream exploration market through to where gas is used by one of over 265,000 consumers. This Report is intended to provide a reference for industry stakeholders who may only be familiar with the parts of the gas story that are closest to them. Gas Industry Co also hopes the Report will help inform stakeholders’ planning and decision-making processes. While the Report is produced by Gas Industry Co, it is not about Gas Industry Co and its work.
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