Water Temperature of Streams in the Cook Inlet Basin, Alaska, and Implications of Climate Change ALASKA
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U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Water Temperature of Streams in the Cook Inlet Basin, Alaska, and Implications of Climate Change ALASKA Water-Resources Investigations Report 01-4109 Prepared as part of the NATIONAL WATER-QUALITY ASSESSMENT PROGRAM Cover photograph: View of the Deshka River on June 26, 2001, by Robert Ourso, U.S. Geological Survey. U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Water Temperature of Streams in the Cook Inlet Basin, Alaska, and Implications of Climate Change By REBECCA E. KYLE and TIMOTHY P. BRABETS Water-Resources Investigations Report 01-4109 Prepared as part of the NATIONAL WATER-QUALITY ASSESSMENT PROGRAM Anchorage, Alaska 2001 U. S. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR GALE A. NORTON, Secretary U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CHARLES G. GROAT, Director The use of trade, product, or firm names in this publication is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. For additional information: Copies of this report may be purchased from: District Chief U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Geological Survey Branch of Information Services 4230 University Drive, Suite 201 Box 25286 Anchorage, AK 99508-4664 Denver, CO 80225-0286 Internet URLs: Alaska Water Resources: http://ak.water.usgs.gov Cook Inlet Basin NAWQA: http://ak.water.usgs.gov/Projects/Nawqa/ National NAWQA: http://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/nawqa_home.html FOREWORD resources, and agricultural, urban, and natural sources of contamination. Each assessment is guided by a nationally con- The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is commit- sistent study design and methods of sampling and anal- ted to serve the Nation with accurate and timely scien- ysis. The assessments thereby build local knowledge tific information that helps enhance and protect the about water-quality issues and trends in a particular overall quality of life, and facilitates effective man- stream or aquifer while providing an understanding agement of water, biological, energy, and mineral of how and why water quality varies regionally and resources. Information on the quality of the Nation’s nationally. The consistent, multi-scale approach helps water resources is of critical interest to the USGS to determine if certain types of water-quality issues are because it is so integrally linked to the long-term avail- isolated or pervasive, and allows direct comparisons ability of water that is clean and safe for drinking and of how human activities and natural processes affect recreation and that is suitable for industry, irrigation, water quality and ecological health in the Nation’s and habitat for fish and wildlife. Escalating population diverse geographic and environmental settings. growth and increasing demands for the multiple water Comprehensive assessments on pesticides, nutrients, uses make water availability, now measured in terms of volatile organic compounds, trace metals, and aquatic quantity and quality, even more critical to the long-term ecology are developed at the national scale through sustainability of our communities and ecosystems. comparative analysis of the Study-Unit findings. The USGS places high value on the communi- The USGS implemented the National Water- cation and dissemination of credible, timely, and Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program to support relevant science so that the most recent and available national, regional, and local information needs and knowledge about water resources can be applied in decisions related to water-quality management and management and policy decisions. We hope this policy. Shaped by and coordinated with ongoing NAWQA publication will provide you the needed efforts of other Federal, State, and local agencies, the insights and information to meet your needs, and NAWQA Program is designed to answer: What is the thereby foster increased awareness and involvement in condition of our Nation’s streams and ground water? the protection and restoration of our Nation’s waters. How are the conditions changing over time? How do The NAWQA Program recognizes that a national natural features and human activities affect the quality assessment by a single program cannot address all of streams and ground water, and where are those water-resource issues of interest. External coordination effects most pronounced? By combining information at all levels is critical for a fully integrated understand- on water chemistry, physical characteristics, stream ing of watersheds and for cost-effective management, habitat, and aquatic life, the NAWQA Program aims to regulation, and conservation of our Nation’s water provide science-based insights for current and emerg- resources. The Program, therefore, depends exten- ing water issues. NAWQA results can contribute to sively on the advice, cooperation, and information informed decisions that result in practical and effective from other Federal, State, interstate, Tribal, and local water-resource management and strategies that protect agencies, non-government organizations, industry, and restore water quality. academia, and other stakeholder groups. The assistance Since 1991, the NAWQA Program has imple- and suggestions of all are greatly appreciated. mented interdisciplinary assessments in more than 50 of the Nation’s most important river basins and aquifers, referred to as Study Units. Collectively, these Study Units account for more than 60 percent of the overall water use and population served by public water supply, and are representative of the Nation’s Robert M. Hirsch major hydrologic landscapes, priority ecological Associate Director for Water iii CONTENTS Abstract .......................................................................................................................................................................................1 Introduction.................................................................................................................................................................................1 Purpose and Scope ............................................................................................................................................................2 Methods of Study ..............................................................................................................................................................4 Description of the Study Area.....................................................................................................................................................4 Water-Temperature Characteristics ............................................................................................................................................5 Kenai Peninsula.................................................................................................................................................................8 Anchorage Area ................................................................................................................................................................8 Susitna River Basin.........................................................................................................................................................10 Future Trends in Water-Temperature Characteristics...............................................................................................................11 Climate Change...............................................................................................................................................................11 Water-Temperature Model..............................................................................................................................................12 Calibration and Verification..................................................................................................................................13 Stream-Temperature Projections and Implications...............................................................................................17 Summary ...................................................................................................................................................................................22 References Cited .......................................................................................................................................................................23 FIGURES Figure 1. Map showing location of water-temperature and climate sites in the Cook Inlet Basin, Alaska ...........................3 Figure 2. Graph showing comparison of discharge between a glacial and a nonglacial stream ............................................5 Figure 3 Graph showing beginning and ending year of available data for water-temperature-measurement sites ..............8 Figure 4. Graph showing average daily maximum and minimum water temperatures for six sites on the Kenai Peninsula.......................................................................................................................................................9 Figure 5. Graph showing average daily maximum and minimum water temperatures for three sites in Anchorage ............9 Figure 6. Graph showing average daily maximum and minimum water temperatures for five sites on the Susitna River.........................................................................................................................................................10 Figure 7. Graph showing average daily maximum and minimum water temperatures for the Chulitna River near Talkeetna,