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In-Orbit Maintenance: the Future of the Satellite Industry

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In-Orbit Maintenance: the Future of the Satellite Industry MCTP Title: In-Orbit maintenance: the future of the satellite industry Supervised by: Kevin CARILLO Professor in Information Systems Names of the participants Abhishek KRISHNA Muzikayise Clive SKENJANA Viet Hoang DO Ryota YOSHIDA Qingqing WANG Florent RIZZO Toulouse Business School MCTP project: In-Orbit maintenance: The future of the satellite industry 1 MCTP project: In-Orbit maintenance: The future of the satellite industry Acknowledgement We would like to thank our academic supervisor Kevin Carillo for his continued support throughout the project. We also would like to thank the industry players, who through their busy schedule have managed to grant us an opportunity to hear their views on our topic. Sarah Kartalia for all the provocative MCTP lectures that made us grow during this process. Many thanks to Christophe Benaroya and the AeMBA staff who were readily available for their assistance throughout the process of our project. A special word of thanks also goes to our families for their tremendous support over the past 7 months. 2 MCTP project: In-Orbit maintenance: The future of the satellite industry TEAM 3 MCTP project: In-Orbit maintenance: The future of the satellite industry “It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.” - Charles Darwin 4 MCTP project: In-Orbit maintenance: The future of the satellite industry Contents Acknowledgement ........................................................................................................... 2 I. Executive summary .................................................................................................. 7 i. Table of figures ............................................................................................................. 8 ii. List of tables ................................................................................................................ 8 iii. Definitions ................................................................................................................... 9 iv. Abbreviations ............................................................................................................ 10 II. Methodology .......................................................................................................... 11 III. Introduction .......................................................................................................... 13 IV. Overview of the satellite industry ......................................................................... 15 IV.I. Value chain in satellite services .................................................................... 15 IV.II. European satellite ecosystem ....................................................................... 16 IV.III. Satellite phases............................................................................................. 17 V. In-Orbit maintenance: The future of the satellite industry? ..................................... 18 V.I. Maintenance and predictive maintenance concepts in aviation........................ 18 V.II. Concept of In-Orbit Maintenance .................................................................. 18 V.II.A. Classes of In-Orbit Maintenance ............................................................ 19 V.II.B. In-Orbit Maintenance process ................................................................ 19 V.II.C. Types of earth orbits ............................................................................... 20 V.III. Overview of current maintenance activities in the satellite industry .............. 21 VI. Strategic analysis of the satellite industry ............................................................ 26 VI.I. Political ......................................................................................................... 26 VI.II. Economical ................................................................................................... 27 VI.III. Social ............................................................................................................ 30 VI.IV. Technological ................................................................................................ 31 VI.V. Legal ............................................................................................................. 33 VI.V.A. Introduction of space law ........................................................................ 33 VI.V.B. Legal challenges .................................................................................... 35 VI.VI. Summary of legal challenges ........................................................................ 41 VI.VII. Environmental ............................................................................................ 41 VI.VII.A. Satellite maintenance and space debris .............................................. 41 VI.VII.B. Missions for space debris .................................................................... 42 5 MCTP project: In-Orbit maintenance: The future of the satellite industry VI.VII.C. From satellite maintenance to space maintenance ............................. 42 VII. Insurance ............................................................................................................. 43 VIII. Market analysis ................................................................................................... 44 VIII.I. The Space Business: Demand and Supply ................................................... 44 VIII.I.A. Price elasticity ........................................................................................ 44 VIII.I.B. Cost and Price ........................................................................................ 45 VIII.I.C. “Space Value Chain” .............................................................................. 46 VIII.II. Space applications: The Four Gems ............................................................. 48 VIII.II.A. Space Telecom ................................................................................... 48 VIII.II.B. Navigation Satellites ............................................................................ 49 VIII.II.C. Remote Sensing.................................................................................. 50 VIII.II.D. Space Data: Big data in Space ........................................................... 50 VIII.III. Market Overview for In-Orbit maintenance ................................................ 51 VIII.III.A. Market analysis for In-Orbit maintenance ............................................ 51 VIII.III.B. Technology and demand readiness levels analysis ............................ 57 VIII.III.C. In-Orbit maintenance done in the past ................................................ 60 VIII.III.D. Future trends ....................................................................................... 61 VIII.III.E. Customer pull approach ...................................................................... 62 VIII.III.F. Conclusion of market analysis ............................................................ 62 IX. Financial analysis ................................................................................................ 63 IX.I. Purpose and tools ......................................................................................... 63 IX.II. Assumptions ................................................................................................. 63 IX.III. Net Present Value analysis ........................................................................... 67 IX.IV. Findings based on financial analysis ............................................................. 68 IX.V. The case of the Hubble space telescope ...................................................... 69 X. Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 70 X.I. Findings ........................................................................................................... 70 X.II. Recommendations ........................................................................................ 72 XI. Appendix ............................................................................................................. 74 XI.I. Details of financial analysis ........................................................................... 74 XI.II. Interview key points ...................................................................................... 76 XI.III. Interview methodology .................................................................................. 77 6 MCTP project: In-Orbit maintenance: The future of the satellite industry I. Executive summary Space exploration has been one of the biggest aspirations of mankind. From the very first mission in space to the exploration of the Martian surface, the human space odyssey has shown successive progress thanks to the vision, persistence and dedication of passionate people. Investments in space related activity has always been capital intensive and technologically challenging. One may consider these as obstacles but for us the main obstacles are the naysayers and cynics, who say such projects are impossible to achieve. In-Orbit maintenance is one such space activity faced with such a dilemma as only a handful of people believe in its realization. Maintenance in space, if materialized will be as revolutionary and disruptive to the space value chain as the moon landing was in the sixties. Our
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